Alex Smith (1 Viewer)

[Grahamburn]

The 49ers were 5-6 after week 6 with Alex Smith as the starter, which isn't great, but he showed some promise.

He now has some weapons with Crabtree for an entire year(who not coincidentally also made his debut in week 7), Frank Gore, and the emergence of Vernon Davis.

There was chemistry in San Francisco's version of the spread offense with Alex Smith at QB. With the losses in Arizona the 49ers should run away with the NFC West and could make a nice run in the playoffs, which is also a reason I think C.J. Spiller is getting mocked to SF alot. A dynamic player like Spiller on special teams/3rd downs could make the 49ers very dangerous.

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

7 SF HOU 15 22 206 3 TD 1 INT

8 SF IND 19 32 198 1 TD 1 INT

9 SF TEN 29 45 286 2 TD 3 INT

10 SF CHI 16 23 118 0 TD 1 INT

11 SF GB 16 33 227 3 TD 1 INT

12 SF JAX 27 41 232 2 TD 0 INT

13 SF SEA 27 45 310 2 TD 0 INT

14 SF ARI 19 35 144 2 TD 2 INT

15 SF PHI 20 37 177 1 TD 3 INT

16 SF DET 20 31 230 1 TD 0 INT

17 SF STL 17 28 222 1 TD 0 INT

Am I crazy?

 

[BigTex]

He's been sitting on my roster, I hope you're right about him.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Isn't he the guy that's had to learn a different system every year? Maybe he will improve in the same system again?

 

[CalBear]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts. ...Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

 

[Grahamburn]

Isn't he the guy that's had to learn a different system every year? Maybe he will improve in the same system again?

Yes. He was also thrown into the fire as a young player with virtually zero help on offense. I'm viewing him similarly to Aaron Rodgers entering the 2008 season. He'll be an excellent value where he's drafted, can be used as a starter if you wait for your QB, or as trade bait if you draft a stud early.

Smith has had time to learn the NFL game now, couple that with some fine weapons on offense, an overall solid team around him, and you have the potential for a nice season.

If you're the kind of guy that likes to wait for a QB, Smith looks like a very good bet to outplay his ADP this year. His prorated TD total would be around 26 in a 16 game season, which would plant him right near the top 10 for QBs.

 

[TS Garp]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts. ...Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

I posted something similar in the Carr thread. I think Smith is high risk/high reward. The 49ers have a good situation -- strong running game, emerging stud TE, Crabtree should be even better and could develop into a legit #1 WR, etc. But Smith was very erratic last year and still shows a propensity to make poor decisions. I think it'll all be about his first few games. If he does well and gains confidence, he could have a really nice season. But if he stumbles out of the gate, I think you'll see Carr in there. Remember, the Niners have a good chance to win the division this year, and I don't think Smith will be a long leash.

 

[Grahamburn]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

...

Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

I'd target him as a QB2 or as part of a committee. Basically I think he'll greatly outperform his ADP and I'll take him a round or two early to ensure he's on my rosters.Singletary on Smith as starter.

As far as the schedule goes, the 49ers will still play Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona two times each. I'll upgrade/downgrade him a bit I guess depending on how difficult/easy it looks.

 

[Christo]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

...

Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

Are you sure? I have him in one league. Once he replaced Hill, he was QB13 for total points and QB17 PPG.

 

[TS Garp]

Singletary on Smith as starter.

I don't think anyone's doubting the fact that he's the unquestioned started heading into the season, but if he falters early in the season and costs the team a couple of games, he'll be pulled.

 

[Grahamburn]

Singletary on Smith as starter.

I don't think anyone's doubting the fact that he's the unquestioned started heading into the season, but if he falters early in the season and costs the team a couple of games, he'll be pulled.

Yes, but wouldn't this be true of most of the lower tier starters in the league?My point is that he'll likely be drafted around QB20, but the stars are aligned for him to finish closer to QB10.

 

[CalBear]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

...

Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

Are you sure? I have him in one league. Once he replaced Hill, he was QB13 for total points and QB17 PPG.

You're looking at slices of the year where not all QBs above him were playing. I'll make a couple adjustments to benefit Smith: I'll throw out Dennis Dixon, and I'll limit Smith's games to the 11 he played significant time. (11 games is actually to his benefit rather than the 10 he actually started; when he came in for Hill against Houston he had 200+ yards and 3 TDs, his best game of the season). So yes, if you look at it that way, he does move all the way up to QB17. Woo.

 

[TS Garp]

Singletary on Smith as starter.

I don't think anyone's doubting the fact that he's the unquestioned started heading into the season, but if he falters early in the season and costs the team a couple of games, he'll be pulled.

Yes, but wouldn't this be true of most of the lower tier starters in the league?My point is that he'll likely be drafted around QB20, but the stars are aligned for him to finish closer to QB10.

Not necessarily, because most of them are either on bad teams, where the coach will ride it out with them because they probably don't have a realistic chance of competing, or they're more entrenched as a starter. That said, I do agree that he has more upside than most of those guys. More upside but also more risk. Then again, I play in a 2 QB league, so I have to be more careful about the risk, but if you're taking him as a QB2 to sit on the bench and there are always alternatives available, I do think he's worth the risk.

 

[CalBear]

Singletary on Smith as starter.

I don't think anyone's doubting the fact that he's the unquestioned started heading into the season, but if he falters early in the season and costs the team a couple of games, he'll be pulled.

Yes, but wouldn't this be true of most of the lower tier starters in the league?My point is that he'll likely be drafted around QB20, but the stars are aligned for him to finish closer to QB10.

Here are the five QBs who finished just ahead of Smith in PPG last year:Matt Hasselbeck

Carson Palmer

Joe Flacco

Matt Ryan

Matthew Stafford

With the possible exception of Hasselbeck, all of those have better job security than Alex Smith.

Following Smith (limiting it to real starters), we see:

Matt Cassel

Vince Young

Chad Henne

Josh Freeman

Mark Sanchez

This isn't quite as strong as the group ahead of Smith, but I'd definitely say that Cassel, Young, and Sanchez have better job security than he does, and probably better prospects.

 

[Christo]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

...

Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

Are you sure? I have him in one league. Once he replaced Hill, he was QB13 for total points and QB17 PPG.

You're looking at slices of the year where not all QBs above him were playing.

I'm looking at the "slice" of the year where he actually played.

I'll make a couple adjustments to benefit Smith: I'll throw out Dennis Dixon, and I'll limit Smith's games to the 11 he played significant time. (11 games is actually to his benefit rather than the 10 he actually started; when he came in for Hill against Houston he had 200+ yards and 3 TDs, his best game of the season). So yes, if you look at it that way, he does move all the way up to QB17.

Woo.

Feel free to discount this however you want, but I'm going to need a QB2 in a few of my leagues next year and this is the sort of information that to me makes sense to know going into my drafts.

 

[CalBear]

You're looking at slices of the year where not all QBs above him were playing.

I'm looking at the "slice" of the year where he actually played.

You can't say "Smith was #12 in total points in the period of the year when he played," because you're not comparing apples to apples. A number of the players ahead of him missed one or more games during the stretch where Smith was #12 overall, so you're including the games that they missed, while you're throwing out the games Smith missed.

 

[Grahamburn]

Singletary on Smith as starter.

I don't think anyone's doubting the fact that he's the unquestioned started heading into the season, but if he falters early in the season and costs the team a couple of games, he'll be pulled.

Yes, but wouldn't this be true of most of the lower tier starters in the league?My point is that he'll likely be drafted around QB20, but the stars are aligned for him to finish closer to QB10.

Here are the five QBs who finished just ahead of Smith in PPG last year:Matt Hasselbeck

Carson Palmer

Joe Flacco

Matt Ryan

Matthew Stafford

With the possible exception of Hasselbeck, all of those have better job security than Alex Smith.

Following Smith (limiting it to real starters), we see:

Matt Cassel

Vince Young

Chad Henne

Josh Freeman

Mark Sanchez

This isn't quite as strong as the group ahead of Smith, but I'd definitely say that Cassel, Young, and Sanchez have better job security than he does, and probably better prospects.

I obviously expect Alex Smith to have a good season and the 49ers to come out and win games in a weak division, so I'm not overly worried about his job security I guess?Smith threw more touchdown passes (18, in 11 games) than Hasselbeck, Cassel, Young, Henne, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford. His job may not be as secure, but he'll outperform these guys in 2010.

I don't see how his prospects are going to be worse than they were in 2009 when he outperformed those players. Smith is in a pass first offense with weapons to throw to in the red zone. His ceiling is much higher than any of the players listed in your second tier.

He'll likely be drafted well after Ryan, Flacco, and Palmer as well. These are the only players of the ones you've listed that I think can outscore Alex Smith this season, but Smith has more potential upside. All three of those players are in run-oriented offenses.

I like to take this kind of "risk" with my QB2.

Eli Manning was QB10 last season and had 4,021 yards, 27 TDs, and 14 INTs. Those numbers are attainable for Smith in a 16 game season, and they'll come at a discounted price.

 

[bonesman]

Some "stat geek" earlier in the off-season posted some #s on Smith that fizzled the enthusiasm I was starting to feel for him. I don't remember exactly what it was, but I think it was his yds/completion or something and how it was in the mid-late 20s or something.

Perhaps I'll dig it up if noone chimes in w/ the same details in this thread.

 

[Grimace59]

49ers traded for McNabb

http://nfbcsteams.webs.com/ESPN.htm

 

[Grahamburn]

49ers traded for McNabb

http://nfbcsteams.webs.com/ESPN.htm

:X I guess I should have worked this afternoon instead of defending this.

 

[Christo]

You're looking at slices of the year where not all QBs above him were playing.

I'm looking at the "slice" of the year where he actually played.

You can't say "Smith was #12 in total points in the period of the year when he played," because you're not comparing apples to apples. A number of the players ahead of him missed one or more games during the stretch where Smith was #12 overall, so you're including the games that they missed, while you're throwing out the games Smith missed.

I can say it and I did. The fact is he was QB13 on a total points basis once he took over at QB. It's also a fact that 8 of the 12 QBs ranked ahead of him had their bye weeks before he became the starter. So it's much close to the apples-to-apples comparison than you're making it out to be. My OP also included his PPG in games he actually played. So I gave an accurate analysis of his performance during the time he actually played.An analysis which is much more relevant than your reliance on his PPG over 16 games.

 

[Christo]

49ers traded for McNabb

http://nfbcsteams.webs.com/ESPN.htm

:X I guess I should have worked this afternoon instead of defending this.

 

[Cassius]

nfbcsteams.web.com



Welcome to the internet people.

 

[Grimace59]

49ers traded for McNabb

http://nfbcsteams.webs.com/ESPN.htm

Sorry, looks like the link is a fake, sorry to get people's hopes up. My bad.

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/the_sport...an_mcnabb_rumor

 

[Grahamburn]

49ers traded for McNabb

http://nfbcsteams.webs.com/ESPN.htm

Sorry, looks like the link is a fake, sorry to get people's hopes up. My bad.

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/the_sport...an_mcnabb_rumor

I thought you posted this as a joke. It's pretty obvious that it was a fake link.

 

[Couch Potato]

49ers traded for McNabb

http://nfbcsteams.webs.com/ESPN.htm

Sorry, looks like the link is a fake, sorry to get people's hopes up. My bad.

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/the_sport...an_mcnabb_rumor

I thought you posted this as a joke. It's pretty obvious that it was a fake link.

He wasn't the only one fooled though. According to ProfootballTalk, a number of web news outlets went chasing this story after the fake page went up.http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/...se-phony-rumor/

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Here's a look how Alex Smith fared each of the weeks he truly played.

Week7 QB7

Week8 QB12

Week9 QB14

Week10 QB28

Week11 QB8

Week12 QB12

Week13 QB9

Week14 QB15

Week15 QB28

Week16 QB15

Week17 QB13

Thats how he fared against all the other options each week. It averages out to QB 14.63. Seems like a pretty good #2.

 

[CalBear]

An analysis which is much more relevant than your reliance on his PPG over 16 games.

I was using his PPG numbers from FBG, which includes only games in which he actually played.But you can keep trying to argue that he was great and his job is secure. Good luck with that.

 

[Christo]

An analysis which is much more relevant than your reliance on his PPG over 16 games.

I was using his PPG numbers from FBG, which includes only games in which he actually played.

Are you sure? FBG has him as QB22 in total points. There's no PPG information there.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...cal-qb-2009.php

But you can keep trying to argue that he was great and his job is secure. Good luck with that.

And you can just keep making stuff up

 

[CalBear]

An analysis which is much more relevant than your reliance on his PPG over 16 games.

I was using his PPG numbers from FBG, which includes only games in which he actually played.

Are you sure? FBG has him as QB22 in total points. There's no PPG information there.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...cal-qb-2009.php

But you can keep trying to argue that he was great and his job is secure. Good luck with that.

And you can just keep making stuff up

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09ytdstatsppg17.phpI'll accept your apology.

 

[D'OHtis]

Thats how he fared against all the other options each week. It averages out to QB 14.63. Seems like a pretty good #2.

Right around where I'd rank him for 2010. [Nice #2]. I think he could perhaps jump to a low level QB1 with the talent around him.

 

[Christo]

An analysis which is much more relevant than your reliance on his PPG over 16 games.

I was using his PPG numbers from FBG, which includes only games in which he actually played.

Are you sure? FBG has him as QB22 in total points. There's no PPG information there.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...cal-qb-2009.php

But you can keep trying to argue that he was great and his job is secure. Good luck with that.

And you can just keep making stuff up

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09ytdstatsppg17.phpI'll accept your apology.

For what? Where have I ever argued "that he was great and his job is secure"? I'll answer for you, nowhere. You made it up.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Isn't he the guy that's had to learn a different system every year? Maybe he will improve in the same system again?

Yes. He was also thrown into the fire as a young player with virtually zero help on offense. I'm viewing him similarly to Aaron Rodgers entering the 2008 season. He'll be an excellent value where he's drafted, can be used as a starter if you wait for your QB, or as trade bait if you draft a stud early.

Smith has had time to learn the NFL game now, couple that with some fine weapons on offense, an overall solid team around him, and you have the potential for a nice season.

If you're the kind of guy that likes to wait for a QB, Smith looks like a very good bet to outplay his ADP this year. His prorated TD total would be around 26 in a 16 game season, which would plant him right near the top 10 for QBs.

I agree that Smith is an interesting prospect given his situation, but I think it's a little dangerous to compare him to Rodgers. Smith's perceived fantasy value will be low. So like Rodgers he'll go later in the draft.

But he's not as talented as Rodgers. He could end up near the top 10, but he could also get there in a sloppy, erratic, and ultimately frustrating way (especially in leagues that penalize for turnovers).

That said, this is a good conversation to have since there is often a QB who people are down on or don't trust (Romo in '07, Rodgers in '08, Schaub in '09) who end up being tremendous values/contributors.

I'm just not sure Smith is that guy for '10.

 

[Grahamburn]

Isn't he the guy that's had to learn a different system every year? Maybe he will improve in the same system again?

Yes. He was also thrown into the fire as a young player with virtually zero help on offense. I'm viewing him similarly to Aaron Rodgers entering the 2008 season. He'll be an excellent value where he's drafted, can be used as a starter if you wait for your QB, or as trade bait if you draft a stud early.

Smith has had time to learn the NFL game now, couple that with some fine weapons on offense, an overall solid team around him, and you have the potential for a nice season.

If you're the kind of guy that likes to wait for a QB, Smith looks like a very good bet to outplay his ADP this year. His prorated TD total would be around 26 in a 16 game season, which would plant him right near the top 10 for QBs.

I agree that Smith is an interesting prospect given his situation, but I think it's a little dangerous to compare him to Rodgers. Smith's perceived fantasy value will be low. So like Rodgers he'll go later in the draft.

But he's not as talented as Rodgers. He could end up near the top 10, but he could also get there in a sloppy, erratic, and ultimately frustrating way (especially in leagues that penalize for turnovers).

That said, this is a good conversation to have since there is often a QB who people are down on or don't trust (Romo in '07, Rodgers in '08, Schaub in '09) who end up being tremendous values/contributors.

I'm just not sure Smith is that guy for '10.

NFL GMs thought Smith was the more talented player when they were drafted.

I realize that Rodgers has showcased his talents the past two seasons, but he also inherited a team that was in the NFC Championship game before his first season starting and enjoyed several years of tutilage under a great NFL QB.

Smith was thrown to the wolves on a bad team with no chance to learn. He's now had that opportunity, is surrounded by other talented players, and played fairly well (albeit inconsistent at times) when given the chance in 2009.

A full offseason/training camp as the starter with Crabtree, Morgan, VD, and Gore, along with a schedule against the NFC West makes me think the 49ers are poised to be a breakout offense this season.

If you're a risk averse person then draft the stud QB early, grab Smith later, and then move him for a RB/WR to a team in need of a QB if he starts hot. I'll try to pair him up with Flacco, Palmer, or Cutler depending on how the schedules shake out, and even if he is erratic but finishes near the top 10 I can play the matchups and get top 5 production from two players.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I hear you Grahamburn and I'll definitely be paying close attention to Smith in the non-playing season. If he can take that next step then he's definitely in a great situation given surrounding talent/weak division/etc.

 

[Grahamburn]

I hear you Grahamburn and I'll definitely be paying close attention to Smith in the non-playing season. If he can take that next step then he's definitely in a great situation given surrounding talent/weak division/etc.

Same here.

 

[5Rings]

An analysis which is much more relevant than your reliance on his PPG over 16 games.

I was using his PPG numbers from FBG, which includes only games in which he actually played.

Are you sure? FBG has him as QB22 in total points. There's no PPG information there.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...cal-qb-2009.php

But you can keep trying to argue that he was great and his job is secure. Good luck with that.

And you can just keep making stuff up

christo--this dude is a troll in 49er threads. stop feeding him.

 

[footballsavvy]

Singletary on Smith as starter.

I don't think anyone's doubting the fact that he's the unquestioned started heading into the season, but if he falters early in the season and costs the team a couple of games, he'll be pulled.

Yes, but wouldn't this be true of most of the lower tier starters in the league?My point is that he'll likely be drafted around QB20, but the stars are aligned for him to finish closer to QB10.

Here are the five QBs who finished just ahead of Smith in PPG last year:Matt Hasselbeck

Carson Palmer

Joe Flacco

Matt Ryan

Matthew Stafford

With the possible exception of Hasselbeck, all of those have better job security than Alex Smith.

Following Smith (limiting it to real starters), we see:

Matt Cassel

Vince Young

Chad Henne

Josh Freeman

Mark Sanchez

This isn't quite as strong as the group ahead of Smith, but I'd definitely say that Cassel, Young, and Sanchez have better job security than he does, and probably better prospects.

I obviously expect Alex Smith to have a good season and the 49ers to come out and win games in a weak division, so I'm not overly worried about his job security I guess?Smith threw more touchdown passes (18, in 11 games) than Hasselbeck, Cassel, Young, Henne, Freeman, Sanchez, and Stafford. His job may not be as secure, but he'll outperform these guys in 2010.

I don't see how his prospects are going to be worse than they were in 2009 when he outperformed those players. Smith is in a pass first offense with weapons to throw to in the red zone. His ceiling is much higher than any of the players listed in your second tier.

He'll likely be drafted well after Ryan, Flacco, and Palmer as well. These are the only players of the ones you've listed that I think can outscore Alex Smith this season, but Smith has more potential upside. All three of those players are in run-oriented offenses.

I like to take this kind of "risk" with my QB2.

Eli Manning was QB10 last season and had 4,021 yards, 27 TDs, and 14 INTs. Those numbers are attainable for Smith in a 16 game season, and they'll come at a discounted price.

Without going back to analyze pass-to-run ratios I would not have considered SF a pass-first team. Am I wrong about this?

 

[TS Garp]

Without going back to analyze pass-to-run ratios I would not have considered SF a pass-first team. Am I wrong about this?

No, you're right -- they're not a pass-first team. However, I think they want to combine a strong running game with a vertical passing game, so they'll take their shots down the field and I do think there's an opportunity there for strong passing numbers.

 

[Grahamburn]

Without going back to analyze pass-to-run ratios I would not have considered SF a pass-first team. Am I wrong about this?

No, you're right -- they're not a pass-first team. However, I think they want to combine a strong running game with a vertical passing game, so they'll take their shots down the field and I do think there's an opportunity there for strong passing numbers.

528 pass attempts, 371 rush attempts.

 

[TS Garp]

Without going back to analyze pass-to-run ratios I would not have considered SF a pass-first team. Am I wrong about this?

No, you're right -- they're not a pass-first team. However, I think they want to combine a strong running game with a vertical passing game, so they'll take their shots down the field and I do think there's an opportunity there for strong passing numbers.

528 pass attempts, 371 rush attempts.

That makes them a pass first team?

 

[Grahamburn]

USAToday.com reports Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree walked together step for step through the San Francisco 49ers' locker room Tuesday after the completion of two days of organized team activity practices. It's the kind of unity that's developing rapidly between the team's starting quarterback and the talented young wide receiver.

Their rapport was even more apparent on the field during the previous two practices. The 49ers began 11-on-11 team drills Monday with Smith completing passes to Crabtree on each of the team's first four plays, and that connection continued throughout the two days. "The more we work together, the better we get," Crabtree said Tuesday. "We still have a long ways to go, but this offseason we're going to put the icing on the cake."

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Crabtree's abbreviated rookie season last year prevented he and Alex Smith from getting a full year of work in. Now it appears the duo is off to the right start, and we applaud Smith for knowing who to trust in the passing game. Crabtree has the skill set and desire to be one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the game.

Smith/Crabtree looking to develop a rhythm

 

[Aardvarks]

The 49ers were 5-6 after week 6 with Alex Smith as the starter, which isn't great, but he showed some promise. He now has some weapons with Crabtree for an entire year(who not coincidentally also made his debut in week 7), Frank Gore, and the emergence of Vernon Davis. There was chemistry in San Francisco's version of the spread offense with Alex Smith at QB. With the losses in Arizona the 49ers should run away with the NFC West and could make a nice run in the playoffs, which is also a reason I think C.J. Spiller is getting mocked to SF alot. A dynamic player like Spiller on special teams/3rd downs could make the 49ers very dangerous.Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts. 7 SF HOU 15 22 206 3 TD 1 INT8 SF IND 19 32 198 1 TD 1 INT9 SF TEN 29 45 286 2 TD 3 INT10 SF CHI 16 23 118 0 TD 1 INT11 SF GB 16 33 227 3 TD 1 INT12 SF JAX 27 41 232 2 TD 0 INT13 SF SEA 27 45 310 2 TD 0 INT14 SF ARI 19 35 144 2 TD 2 INT 15 SF PHI 20 37 177 1 TD 3 INT 16 SF DET 20 31 230 1 TD 0 INT 17 SF STL 17 28 222 1 TD 0 INT Am I crazy?

I don't know about "targeting" and "Alex Smith" in the same sentence... but if I've had a few too many beers by the 14th round I might add him to my team. Alex seems like a career backup in the making, capable of productive spot-starting for an NFL team. Maybe a poor man's Kitna. On second thought ... He won't be on my fantasy team.

 

[moderated]

This guy is a dirt cheap investment in a great young offense.

Also he is still very young. He'll be on every one of my teams this year if he's going as late as ADP suggests, but once we get nearer to fantasy drafts he'll likely have moved up quite a bit.

 

[LawFitz]

Smith is in one of the best situations you could possibly hope for, but sadly I think he might just be a little to bummy to capitalize. I wouldn't write him off, but his bust factor is decent given his previous NFL body of work.

One thing about great young offenses, they won't wait forever on a bad player. At any position.

I still think the Niners draft Tebow to come in and supplement now and compete later. But if Smith is the starter heading into the season w/o a major threat that creates value alone given the weapons on this team. Add to that if they get Spiller.

 

[CalBear]

This guy is a dirt cheap investment in a great young offense.

"Great" young offense? They were 27th in yardage last year (22nd passing, 25th rushing).

 

[moderated]

This guy is a dirt cheap investment in a great young offense.

"Great" young offense? They were 27th in yardage last year (22nd passing, 25th rushing).

Yes, great young offense. They should be gelling a lot more going forward with the same offensive coordinator and another year of playing together.Crabtree/VD/Gore/+ (2) 1st round picks and one of them will likely go towards the offense.They will have the entire off season to work together for the first time. This is the next great offense, make no mistake about that.

 

[Meecrob]

This guy is a dirt cheap investment in a great young offense.

"Great" young offense? They were 27th in yardage last year (22nd passing, 25th rushing).

Yes, great could improve to average young offense. They shouldmight be gelling a lot more going forward with the same offensive coordinator and another year of playing together.Crabtree/VD/Gore/+ (2) 1st round picks and one of them will likely go towards the offense.

They Crabtree will have the entire off season to work together for the first timeafter being a dumb-### and holding out last year and trying to play hardball with no positive result. This is In 3 years could be if NE/IND/ARI/HOU/NO/SD/GB all regress the next great offense, make no mistake about that.

Fixed for reality...

 

[Getinthemix]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

...

Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

I posted something similar in the Carr thread. I think Smith is high risk/high reward. The 49ers have a good situation -- strong running game, emerging stud TE, Crabtree should be even better and could develop into a legit #1 WR, etc. But Smith was very erratic last year and still shows a propensity to make poor decisions. I think it'll all be about his first few games. If he does well and gains confidence, he could have a really nice season. But if he stumbles out of the gate, I think you'll see Carr in there. Remember, the Niners have a good chance to win the division this year, and I don't think Smith will be a long leash.

I think I have a different definition of high risk than you do.

 

[moderated]

Smith's numbers were pretty solid as the starter (2,350 yards, 18 TDs, and 12 INTs) in 11 games. I think he's in line for a very solid campaign. In fact, I think I've convinced myself to target him in my 2010 drafts.

...

Am I crazy?

Depends what you mean by "target him." As a QB3 picked up in the late rounds, he's worth a flyer. As a QB2 in the mid rounds, I'd pass; on a PPG basis, Smith was QB#23 last year, which makes him a marginal QB2, and there's no guarantee that he even remains the starter. Carr may be better than Smith. Smith's 2009 stats are inflated by games against STL, DET, and TEN, three of the bottom five defenses, plus SEA at #24 of 32. His schedule will be tougher this year, and if they come out of the gate and lose a few games, he could easily be yanked.

I posted something similar in the Carr thread. I think Smith is high risk/high reward. The 49ers have a good situation -- strong running game, emerging stud TE, Crabtree should be even better and could develop into a legit #1 WR, etc. But Smith was very erratic last year and still shows a propensity to make poor decisions. I think it'll all be about his first few games. If he does well and gains confidence, he could have a really nice season. But if he stumbles out of the gate, I think you'll see Carr in there. Remember, the Niners have a good chance to win the division this year, and I don't think Smith will be a long leash.

I think I have a different definition of high risk than you do.

agreed, Smith is as low risk as it gets in FF since you don't have to invest much in him at all.Low risk/High reward is more like it.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Alex Smith is not a good QB. I look at this guy and see another Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, David Carr, etc. He is serviceable QB but doesn't have the skill set to be an elite #1 QB. That said, Vernon Davis went from bust to stud last year, so maybe Alex Smith can do the same. I just don't see any type of elite talent when watching him play.