Alexander or Bush (1 Viewer)

[Burning Sensation]

No, not an ACF question, i am not in a draft, and am not trying to trade, or for either. I was just looking at the dynasty rankings by Pasquino and Bloom and saw that Jeff has SA at 5 and Bush at 10.

Honestly, is there anyone who would take SA over Bush in an initial dynasty draft? If so, Why?

P.S. What happened to the poll option? :X

 

[EBF]

I think he has SA overrated by a significant margin.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I think he has SA overrated by a significant margin.

Honestly, i just dont think he is taking enough time with his rankings, i would be willing to bet if he is sitting at 1.5/1.6 in a draft and those are his two options, he takes Bush.

 

[cscmtp]

no one in their right mind would take Alexander over Bush in a new dynasty league. Unless their plan was to quick after one year.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think he has SA overrated by a significant margin.

Alexander currently sits #17 on my personal dynasty RB list. That's lower than I've seen almost anywhere, but at 30 in 2007 + recent foot problems + less effective OL than before + 1,650 carries the last 5 years, I'd be a seller and not a buyer at this point in his career.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I think he has SA overrated by a significant margin.

Alexander currently sits #17 on my personal dynasty RB list. That's lower than I've seen almost anywhere, but at 30 in 2007 + recent foot problems + less effective OL than before + 1,650 carries the last 5 years, I'd be a seller and not a buyer at this point in his career.

Thats about right where i have him, if not lower.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Put your trust in Bloom's rankings.

No offense, Jeff, but Sig has a much better

handle on the dynasty rankings.

 

[Couch Potato]

Put your trust in Bloom's Couch Potato's rankings.

I'm better than Bloom. (and I'm so modest too!)

 

[OoOBaby]

RB17? Yikes.

SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span.

Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market.

And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

 

[LBH]

In a dynasty I take Bush. Redraft ,probably Alexander

 

[EBF]

RB17? Yikes.SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span. Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market. And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

While you may or may not be right, this is the same reasoning that I heard people use to justify early selections of Marshall Faulk/Corey Dillon/Curtis Martin/Tiki Barber/Priest Holmes in recent years.

 

[Burning Sensation]

RB17? Yikes.SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span. Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market. And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

While you may or may not be right, this is the same reasoning that I heard people use to justify early selections of Marshall Faulk/Corey Dillon/Curtis Martin/Tiki Barber/Priest Holmes in recent years.

I agree 100%, but i think we are in the minority. Most people put too much value in the current year of a dynasty. Even if you believe that Alexander will have a better 2007 than Bush, which i honestly dont think, but assuming you could know that Alexander is going to it probably wont be a significant amount. Certainly not enough to justify taking him over Bush in a dynasty league considering future potential.

 

[Couch Potato]

RB17? Yikes.

SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span.

Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market.

And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

That's where people fail in their dynasty outlook -- I don't believe he has a few good years left. A big back like him, with the toll he has taken the last 5 years (actually 6-- 5 years of heavy use and then one year of injury), I believe his decline could be rapid. Note his YPC was poor last year. The backs listed ahead of him generally have 2-6 years more ahead of them, and that counts for a lot when looking at RBs.Sounds like I want to be a buyer? I don't play that bluff game, saying one thing but meaning another. I have no interest in being untruthful on this board. I'm in 10 leagues and am a buyer or seller of anyone at the right price. I was approached by a good ifriend from one of my leagues just two days ago who owned SAlex and wanted to know if I was interested. Here's my exact email reply:

"Hi XXX, good to hear from you.   :-)	I'm not a big fan of Alexander at this point in his career.  I'm not saying that to try to lower the price, but just to be honest.  Last year was a red flag for me with the foot problem, with a guy who had 1650 carries the previous 5 years and will be 30 when the season starts.  The OL in SEA isn't what it once was either.  If I were to rank him for dynasty, I'd put him at RB18.  That may be shocking to some, but I'm not comfortable giving up solid younger talent for him if he may have just a year left in the tank as a really good RB.  I'm putting him below guys like Deangelo Williams, Benson, McGahee, Addai and ahead of Carnell Williams, McAllister, M Barber, Henry... as I said, at RB18.  That's not to say he'd be there in redraft, but he declines more than any other top-20 player between redraft and dynasty on my lists.  So there you go, not what you wanted to hear, but my honest perception. You're likely to get more from someone who is more willing to accept last year as just an aberration and not be concerned about the age factor.  The best I could offer is Edge (a year younger) plus a promising young player like Croyle, Clemens, Demitrius Williams, or Mike Williams if you still think he has a future once Detroit moves him.Catch you later buddy.Bruce"

Note - I misspoke in my earlier post. I do have Alexander at #18 for dynasty, not #17. I was going from memory in my first post.

 

[Sinrman]

I would love to have Alexander on my team in any league. But a dynasty league, I would put Bush ahead of Alexander by a good deal. His age and mileage drops him a good bit nowdays...

 

[Burning Sensation]

I would love to hear Jeff's reasoning for not only having SA higher than Bush, but 5 spots higher. More importantly, why he has Alexander #5, i dont even have him there in a redraft.

 

[chris1969]

In a dynasty I take Bush. Redraft ,probably Alexander

SA is about #5 in redraft, but not even close to that in dynasty.

 

[crnerblitz]

I would certainly pick Bush over Alexander in a Dynasty league. For all of the reasons people have given. But I am not sold on Bush as the clear #5 pick either. Both...

Instead of hijacking this thread I will start a new one discussing the problems I see with RB rankings.

 

[ImTheScientist]

 

[ThePittbully]

I dont think anyone can make a legitimate case of why you should pick SA over bush in a dynasty.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I dont think anyone can make a legitimate case of why you should pick SA over bush in a dynasty.

I was hoping Jeff P. could, while he is at it, maybe he can also explain why he has Edge higher than Addai?

 

[Biabreakable]

Put your trust in Bloom's Couch Potato's rankings.

I'm better than Bloom. (and I'm so modest too!)

So why don't you back up that bravado with some rankings couch tater?And while your at it explain your formula in depth in my post about creating rankings for dynasty like you have repeatedly said you would..

Or maybe your post was just meant to be early April foos.

 

[Ned]

A big back like him, with the toll he has taken the last 5 years (actually 6-- 5 years of heavy use and then one year of injury), I believe his decline could be rapid.

alexander's style isnt the usual style of a big back. ive seen him on tv many times talking about how he thinks his style of minimal contact will help him last longer than most.i wouldnt take him over bush in a start up but i think people are selling short on alexander...

 

[Couch Potato]

Put your trust in Bloom's Couch Potato's rankings.

I'm better than Bloom. (and I'm so modest too!)

So why don't you back up that bravado with some rankings couch tater?And while your at it explain your formula in depth in my post about creating rankings for dynasty like you have repeatedly said you would..

Or maybe your post was just meant to be early April foos.

Saying I'm better than Bloom was just being smartass, in that he has Alexander at #10 and I have him lower. I do think that I do a good job of keeping up with NFL news and have at least a decent sense of how to apply it, I've been following this stuff since the 1970s and have probably developed some intuition about things that I can't really explain, and therefore have been pretty successful in leagues. But I still screw up a lot too. So, no, I'm not going to say with seriousness that I'm better than any particular individual, regardless what I may believe privately about a given individual. But for you Biabreakable I'll make an exception -- you suck. On posting rankings, I've never posted my rankings here. I'm not trying to be a jerk about it, but it's a lot like Yudkin's reluctance in the past to do so, not wanting to go to great lengths to defend myself over what many would think are wacky rankings since they may not be in sync with rankings of others because my valuation process is so different. Alexander at #18 is an example. Plus, being in 8 dynasty leagues with guys from this board, I'm a little selfish about not wanting to expose myself in drafts and trade talks by laying out there for my competitors my pecking order (I have a draft in early May for example -- with Bloom and Pasquino and 22 other FBG board guys). Also, until the free agency process has run its course (most have now been signed but there's still a handful to go who will change rankings) and the NFL draft is held, too much still is in the guessing stage to warrant posting rankings unless I'm going to keep it updated regularly like Bloom, Pasquino, and Fear & Loathing do. As much as I admire these guys' diligence in doing so, I'm too lazy to do it. Maybe I'll post some dynasty rankings after our draft in May.

On the other thing you mention - the explanation of my dynasty valuation process - I feel bad about flaking out on you. I've been spending time this offseason modifying some things before I put it out there, and haven't dedicated the time to it I'd planned. I've finished modifying my QYR formulas though, and that's a good step which required compiling and understanding a lot of prior year data. I've posted on it before, but QYR stands for Quality Years Remaining, and gives me a number that represents how much a class of players may have left in the tank. For example, Alexander's QYR at the start of next season is 1.6 while Reggie Bush's is 7.4, a difference of 5.8 years of projected starter-level productivity. Anyway, Bia, I know I still owe you some work posted in your thread and I'm so sorry I've been such a putz in not getting around to it. I'll keep my promise to do so, but won't keep promising 'soon' since I can't seem to keep it. I want to look some more at the productivity curves, discount rates, and waiver wire baselines I've mentioned before before I 'go public' with any numbers. I'm sort of weird in that although I post here a lot, I've always been kind of private about my personal FF analysis and want to revisit these things so I feel confident that what I put out for board consumption is something I'm happy with.

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't suck that's Ticks job. I am more of a pain than anything else I think. (carefully chosen adjetive )

As far as posting rankings I hear ya. I think the last time I have posted full blown rankings here for Dynasty was 2004 so I am probobly due myself before I call anyone else out. I have been holding out for much of the same reasons. Compitition lurking is only one of them. I started a study in regards to the no chuck rule enforcement back then which is still somthing that I consider to be a work in progress and although I think I have learned quite a bit from it my formulas have also gotten more complicated and take a lot more to finish than they used to. In the end I do not entirely trust the results and they need to be adjusted as well. Things were much simpler when I was more naive.

Driver and I have started compiling some information on Rb performance by round drafted since 1993 in that thread that you may find useful. Maybe not. I cannot help wondering if you have allready done that work and have a way of applying it or not. In any case take a look if you have some time and let us know if we are on the right track or if there is somthing else pretty important that we have missed.

Glad you have your priorities straight being a SA in a SA thread couch tater.

BTW I have SA @ around Rb 12 for dynasty purposes right now expecting him to rebound pretty well in 2007 then falling back in performance in 2008 before falling off the cliff.

 

[nygiants56]

I think he has SA overrated by a significant margin.

Alexander currently sits #17 on my personal dynasty RB list. That's lower than I've seen almost anywhere, but at 30 in 2007 + recent foot problems + less effective OL than before + 1,650 carries the last 5 years, I'd be a seller and not a buyer at this point in his career.

I see your point, but I'm a believer in SA. I think he has one big year left. Bush is nothing special in a non-PPR league. for some reason, I just feel a big sophomore slump is coming up for Bush. that Saints team is going to revert back to a 9-7, 8-8 type of team, IMO. they crept up on people last season, and with a tougher schedule in 2007, I expect to see them fall back quite a bit..they still cannot stop the run , whatsoever. the Redskins showed the blueprint for beating them, when they stifled and confused Brees all day long and ran Betts down their throats , eventually winning 16-10. You'll see more of that in 2007.SA represents great value from what I'm seeing so far, so many people are down on him..as a mid second rounder, he's a diamond in the rough!medium risk / high reward. I actually think Bush is more of a risk than SA.

 

[Couch Potato]

I think he has SA overrated by a significant margin.

Alexander currently sits #17 on my personal dynasty RB list. That's lower than I've seen almost anywhere, but at 30 in 2007 + recent foot problems + less effective OL than before + 1,650 carries the last 5 years, I'd be a seller and not a buyer at this point in his career.

I see your point, but I'm a believer in SA. I think he has one big year left. Bush is nothing special in a non-PPR league. for some reason, I just feel a big sophomore slump is coming up for Bush. that Saints team is going to revert back to a 9-7, 8-8 type of team, IMO. they crept up on people last season, and with a tougher schedule in 2007, I expect to see them fall back quite a bit..they still cannot stop the run , whatsoever. the Redskins showed the blueprint for beating them, when they stifled and confused Brees all day long and ran Betts down their throats , eventually winning 16-10. You'll see more of that in 2007.SA represents great value from what I'm seeing so far, so many people are down on him..as a mid second rounder, he's a diamond in the rough!medium risk / high reward. I actually think Bush is more of a risk than SA.

The original question pertained to dynasty value, not 2007. Whether people believe SA has a rebound 2007 or not, it's hard to believe that he can outperform Bush enough to negate the 6 (plus or minus) years of production Bush will have after SA has ended his career. I'm on the fence concerning SA's 2007, but believe his time is short thereafter and that's why I rank him so much lower for dynasty than others do. I don't see a gradual decline lasting 5 years, I see a rather abrupt dropoff at 31 or 32 or 33. My best guess is he has 2 productive years, and that puts me in the minority.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

The original question pertained to dynasty value, not 2007. Whether people believe SA has a rebound 2007 or not, it's hard to believe that he can outperform Bush enough to negate the 6 (plus or minus) years of production Bush will have after SA has ended his career. I'm on the fence concerning SA's 2007, but believe his time is short thereafter and that's why I rank him so much lower for dynasty than others do. I don't see a gradual decline lasting 5 years, I see a rather abrupt dropoff at 31 or 32 or 33. My best guess is he has 2 productive years, and that puts me in the minority.

 

[switz]

No, not an ACF question, i am not in a draft, and am not trying to trade, or for either. I was just looking at the dynasty rankings by Pasquino and Bloom and saw that Jeff has SA at 5 and Bush at 10.Honestly, is there anyone who would take SA over Bush in an initial dynasty draft? If so, Why?P.S. What happened to the poll option?

Ummm.... maybe its a typo - because no one in their right mind would have SA above Bush, especially in dynasty format

 

[Raiders]

His rankings are terrible!!! Not only does he have Alexander as the #5 RB, but #5 overall! Bush at 16. At 5 he is 6 spots higher than Fitz, 14 spots higher than Palmer, 31 spots higher than Addai, and 55 spots in front of V Young!

I would be curious to find out his reasoning.

 

[Burning Sensation]

His rankings are terrible!!! Not only does he have Alexander as the #5 RB, but #5 overall! Bush at 16. At 5 he is 6 spots higher than Fitz, 14 spots higher than Palmer, 31 spots higher than Addai, and 55 spots in front of V Young! I would be curious to find out his reasoning.

Not to but did you notice where Edge was ranked, maybe he thought he was ranking for redraft. Although i still wouldnt understand James higher than Addai. They both had similar rushing totals and Addai had almost 100 less carries. Addai also had more receiving yards and total TD's. Now, with Rhodes gone, Addai will be the featured back, has a year under his belt, his numbers can only go up. I dont see anything that would make me believe James will improve on his numbers from last year, if anything, i would think they drop. There are also talks the Cardinals might even take AD in the draft.

 

[Traders2001]

Bush without a doubt .

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Link to pasquino/bloom dynasty RB debate episode of the audible

You asked for it, you got it!

 

[Burning Sensation]

Link to pasquino/bloom dynasty RB debate episode of the audible

You asked for it, you got it!

Listening as i type, and Jeff just pretty much confirmed that he would take SA with the 5th pick in a dynasty startup. His reasoning is he will just replace SA a couple years down the road. Not sure what kind of dynasty leagues he is in, but the ones i play in, RB's are GOLD. The only way to get one after the intial draft is having a high rookie pick, or overpaying in a trade, neither of which is something i want to ever do.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Link to pasquino/bloom dynasty RB debate episode of the audible

You asked for it, you got it!

Listening as i type, and Jeff just pretty much confirmed that he would take SA with the 5th pick in a dynasty startup. His reasoning is he will just replace SA a couple years down the road. Not sure what kind of dynasty leagues he is in, but the ones i play in, RB's are GOLD. The only way to get one after the intial draft is having a high rookie pick, or overpaying in a trade, neither of which is something i want to ever do.

Well, considering his defense of having SA ranked that high, i am not suprised by his reasoning of having Edge as high as he has him.Being optomistic about the future potential of a 29 year old RB on the Cardinals who rushed for 3.4 ypc, because he had a couple of 100 yard games and scored 3 TD's over the last 5 weeks of the season just seems crazy.

Seriously Jeff, are you just trying to get those guys value up for an upcoming dynasty draft?

 

[cstu]

I don't find it at all outrageous to have SA at #5. A bit high IMO, but how many RB's are as proven as SA?

The top 6 for me are easy:

LT

SJax

LJ

Portis - an OL that made Betts look good and age (26) make him an easy top 5 pick IMO

Bush - combination of talent and youth make him tough to pass up

After that you have some tough choices:

SA - 30, but has 5 top 10 seasons under his belt

Westbrook - his nagging injuries (has killed more than a few owners during FF playoffs) and age (28), absolute stud when healthy though

Gore - a young stud but will he repeat last year and stay healthy?

Rudi - Surprising already 28, very steady top 10 guy but not elite material

Brown - 2 ok/good seasons, but still waiting for him to get to the next level

 

[Burning Sensation]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

 

[OoOBaby]

RB17? Yikes.

SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span.

Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market.

And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

That's where people fail in their dynasty outlook -- I don't believe he has a few good years left. A big back like him, with the toll he has taken the last 5 years (actually 6-- 5 years of heavy use and then one year of injury), I believe his decline could be rapid. Note his YPC was poor last year. The backs listed ahead of him generally have 2-6 years more ahead of them, and that counts for a lot when looking at RBs.Sounds like I want to be a buyer? I don't play that bluff game, saying one thing but meaning another. I have no interest in being untruthful on this board. I'm in 10 leagues and am a buyer or seller of anyone at the right price. I was approached by a good ifriend from one of my leagues just two days ago who owned SAlex and wanted to know if I was interested. Here's my exact email reply:

"Hi XXX, good to hear from you. I'm not a big fan of Alexander at this point in his career. I'm not saying that to try to lower the price, but just to be honest. Last year was a red flag for me with the foot problem, with a guy who had 1650 carries the previous 5 years and will be 30 when the season starts. The OL in SEA isn't what it once was either. If I were to rank him for dynasty, I'd put him at RB18. That may be shocking to some, but I'm not comfortable giving up solid younger talent for him if he may have just a year left in the tank as a really good RB. I'm putting him below guys like Deangelo Williams, Benson, McGahee, Addai and ahead of Carnell Williams, McAllister, M Barber, Henry... as I said, at RB18. That's not to say he'd be there in redraft, but he declines more than any other top-20 player between redraft and dynasty on my lists. So there you go, not what you wanted to hear, but my honest perception. You're likely to get more from someone who is more willing to accept last year as just an aberration and not be concerned about the age factor. The best I could offer is Edge (a year younger) plus a promising young player like Croyle, Clemens, Demitrius Williams, or Mike Williams if you still think he has a future once Detroit moves him.Catch you later buddy.Bruce"Note - I misspoke in my earlier post. I do have Alexander at #18 for dynasty, not #17. I was going from memory in my first post.

There's no "failing" in dynasty outlook. You think he's done, I don't. As I said, if people are selling him at RB 15-20 prices, that's a great buy low. And if you have him, hold him. I see no reason that he's done and its time to sell him at all costs.

In fact, with the explosion of FF sites, there’s been an overreaction to a players age, it's created a great value market for 29+ year old players. You play up the age factor, and get them extremely cheap. People in general overacted to age, and guys like Harrison have been gold the last few years, well after he turned 31.

 

[Slinger]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):1.LT2.SJax3.Bush4.LJ5.Gore6.Addai7.RBrown8.Maroney9.Peterson®10.Westbrook11.Jones-Drew12.ParkerMcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

I would switch SJax and LT. Put SA where you have Jones-Drew and totally take Peterson out of there until I find out where he plays, but other then that, good list.

 

[Burning Sensation]

RB17? Yikes.

SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span.

Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market.

And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

That's where people fail in their dynasty outlook -- I don't believe he has a few good years left. A big back like him, with the toll he has taken the last 5 years (actually 6-- 5 years of heavy use and then one year of injury), I believe his decline could be rapid. Note his YPC was poor last year. The backs listed ahead of him generally have 2-6 years more ahead of them, and that counts for a lot when looking at RBs.Sounds like I want to be a buyer? I don't play that bluff game, saying one thing but meaning another. I have no interest in being untruthful on this board. I'm in 10 leagues and am a buyer or seller of anyone at the right price. I was approached by a good ifriend from one of my leagues just two days ago who owned SAlex and wanted to know if I was interested. Here's my exact email reply:

"Hi XXX, good to hear from you. I'm not a big fan of Alexander at this point in his career. I'm not saying that to try to lower the price, but just to be honest. Last year was a red flag for me with the foot problem, with a guy who had 1650 carries the previous 5 years and will be 30 when the season starts. The OL in SEA isn't what it once was either. If I were to rank him for dynasty, I'd put him at RB18. That may be shocking to some, but I'm not comfortable giving up solid younger talent for him if he may have just a year left in the tank as a really good RB. I'm putting him below guys like Deangelo Williams, Benson, McGahee, Addai and ahead of Carnell Williams, McAllister, M Barber, Henry... as I said, at RB18. That's not to say he'd be there in redraft, but he declines more than any other top-20 player between redraft and dynasty on my lists. So there you go, not what you wanted to hear, but my honest perception. You're likely to get more from someone who is more willing to accept last year as just an aberration and not be concerned about the age factor. The best I could offer is Edge (a year younger) plus a promising young player like Croyle, Clemens, Demitrius Williams, or Mike Williams if you still think he has a future once Detroit moves him.Catch you later buddy.Bruce"Note - I misspoke in my earlier post. I do have Alexander at #18 for dynasty, not #17. I was going from memory in my first post.

There's no "failing" in dynasty outlook. You think he's done, I don't. As I said, if people are selling him at RB 15-20 prices, that's a great buy low. And if you have him, hold him. I see no reason that he's done and its time to sell him at all costs.

In fact, with the explosion of FF sites, there’s been an overreaction to a players age, it's created a great value market for 29+ year old players. You play up the age factor, and get them extremely cheap. People in general overacted to age, and guys like Harrison have been gold the last few years, well after he turned 31.

You do know Harrison is a WR, and not a RB, right?

 

[Burning Sensation]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):1.LT2.SJax3.Bush4.LJ5.Gore6.Addai7.RBrown8.Maroney9.Peterson®10.Westbrook11.Jones-Drew12.ParkerMcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

I would switch SJax and LT. Put SA where you have Jones-Drew and totally take Peterson out of there until I find out where he plays, but other then that, good list.

I certainly wont argue with having SJax ahead of LT, im on the fence between the two anyway. No way i have SA in my top 15, the guys best days are clearly behind him. As far as Peterson, if i am doing an initial dynasty draft right now with him available, i cant see not taking him over any of the guys listed below him.

 

[cstu]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):1.LT2.SJax3.Bush4.LJ5.Gore6.Addai7.RBrown8.Maroney9.Peterson®10.Westbrook11.Jones-Drew12.ParkerMcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

 

[OoOBaby]

RB17? Yikes.

SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span.

Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market.

And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

That's where people fail in their dynasty outlook -- I don't believe he has a few good years left. A big back like him, with the toll he has taken the last 5 years (actually 6-- 5 years of heavy use and then one year of injury), I believe his decline could be rapid. Note his YPC was poor last year. The backs listed ahead of him generally have 2-6 years more ahead of them, and that counts for a lot when looking at RBs.Sounds like I want to be a buyer? I don't play that bluff game, saying one thing but meaning another. I have no interest in being untruthful on this board. I'm in 10 leagues and am a buyer or seller of anyone at the right price. I was approached by a good ifriend from one of my leagues just two days ago who owned SAlex and wanted to know if I was interested. Here's my exact email reply:

"Hi XXX, good to hear from you. I'm not a big fan of Alexander at this point in his career. I'm not saying that to try to lower the price, but just to be honest. Last year was a red flag for me with the foot problem, with a guy who had 1650 carries the previous 5 years and will be 30 when the season starts. The OL in SEA isn't what it once was either. If I were to rank him for dynasty, I'd put him at RB18. That may be shocking to some, but I'm not comfortable giving up solid younger talent for him if he may have just a year left in the tank as a really good RB. I'm putting him below guys like Deangelo Williams, Benson, McGahee, Addai and ahead of Carnell Williams, McAllister, M Barber, Henry... as I said, at RB18. That's not to say he'd be there in redraft, but he declines more than any other top-20 player between redraft and dynasty on my lists. So there you go, not what you wanted to hear, but my honest perception. You're likely to get more from someone who is more willing to accept last year as just an aberration and not be concerned about the age factor. The best I could offer is Edge (a year younger) plus a promising young player like Croyle, Clemens, Demitrius Williams, or Mike Williams if you still think he has a future once Detroit moves him.Catch you later buddy.Bruce"Note - I misspoke in my earlier post. I do have Alexander at #18 for dynasty, not #17. I was going from memory in my first post.

There's no "failing" in dynasty outlook. You think he's done, I don't. As I said, if people are selling him at RB 15-20 prices, that's a great buy low. And if you have him, hold him. I see no reason that he's done and its time to sell him at all costs.

In fact, with the explosion of FF sites, there’s been an overreaction to a players age, it's created a great value market for 29+ year old players. You play up the age factor, and get them extremely cheap. People in general overacted to age, and guys like Harrison have been gold the last few years, well after he turned 31.

You do know Harrison is a WR, and not a RB, right?

Did I blow your mind by discussing aging WRs also? I'll slow down in the future.The paragraph you highlighted had nothing to do with running backs. It was people overacting to the age of NFL players. Players includes all players, not just running backs. Otherwise I would have said RBs.

Are we on the same page now?

Because of people overacting to age, there's a great value market for people looking to dump anyone who is 29-31. This includes WRs/QBs/TEs/RBs. I've seen numerous people talk about Manning's age, Plax, SA, Gonzo. Regardless of position, people are obsessed with youth, and you can pick up aging veterans usually fairly cheap.

If this confuses you, feel free to PM me. I'll walk you through it on a one on one basis. It's not unusual for people to have difficulty grasping simple ideas in a group setting. Pretty sure it has to do with feeling inadequate. Regardless, my PM box is open to you.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):1.LT2.SJax3.Bush4.LJ5.Gore6.Addai7.RBrown8.Maroney9.Peterson®10.Westbrook11.Jones-Drew12.ParkerMcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

Thank you.Peterson over Westbrook and Portis is nothing short of ridiculous.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

I admit that i may overvalue young RB's, but the approach has yet to fail me in the 4 dynasty leagues i am in. As far as Portis, he has been overvalued since leaving the Broncos. As a 205 lb. back I also believe that he cant handle a 350+ carry workload that he has been getting since joining the Redskins. Add that to the fact that they will have what is essentially a rookie QB starting this year, and the presence of Betts, i just dont see Portis as a top 10-12 back.

 

[Burning Sensation]

RB17? Yikes.

SA is one of the few RBs who have a decent shot at 15+ TDs this year. If he's healthy, he should easily be a top 10 RB. I wish I could get him for RB17 prices. He should have a few good years left, and unless he gets hurt, he should be a very solid RB over that span.

Sounds like you want to be a buyer in this market.

And if I owned him, I'd hold. You won't get good value, and he has a solid shot at top 3-4RB and could be a huge factor in you winning it all. And you don't want to trade him now anyway. Trade him week 8 to a team who's going for it all.

That's where people fail in their dynasty outlook -- I don't believe he has a few good years left. A big back like him, with the toll he has taken the last 5 years (actually 6-- 5 years of heavy use and then one year of injury), I believe his decline could be rapid. Note his YPC was poor last year. The backs listed ahead of him generally have 2-6 years more ahead of them, and that counts for a lot when looking at RBs.Sounds like I want to be a buyer? I don't play that bluff game, saying one thing but meaning another. I have no interest in being untruthful on this board. I'm in 10 leagues and am a buyer or seller of anyone at the right price. I was approached by a good ifriend from one of my leagues just two days ago who owned SAlex and wanted to know if I was interested. Here's my exact email reply:

"Hi XXX, good to hear from you. I'm not a big fan of Alexander at this point in his career. I'm not saying that to try to lower the price, but just to be honest. Last year was a red flag for me with the foot problem, with a guy who had 1650 carries the previous 5 years and will be 30 when the season starts. The OL in SEA isn't what it once was either. If I were to rank him for dynasty, I'd put him at RB18. That may be shocking to some, but I'm not comfortable giving up solid younger talent for him if he may have just a year left in the tank as a really good RB. I'm putting him below guys like Deangelo Williams, Benson, McGahee, Addai and ahead of Carnell Williams, McAllister, M Barber, Henry... as I said, at RB18. That's not to say he'd be there in redraft, but he declines more than any other top-20 player between redraft and dynasty on my lists. So there you go, not what you wanted to hear, but my honest perception. You're likely to get more from someone who is more willing to accept last year as just an aberration and not be concerned about the age factor. The best I could offer is Edge (a year younger) plus a promising young player like Croyle, Clemens, Demitrius Williams, or Mike Williams if you still think he has a future once Detroit moves him.Catch you later buddy.Bruce"Note - I misspoke in my earlier post. I do have Alexander at #18 for dynasty, not #17. I was going from memory in my first post.

There's no "failing" in dynasty outlook. You think he's done, I don't. As I said, if people are selling him at RB 15-20 prices, that's a great buy low. And if you have him, hold him. I see no reason that he's done and its time to sell him at all costs.

In fact, with the explosion of FF sites, there’s been an overreaction to a players age, it's created a great value market for 29+ year old players. You play up the age factor, and get them extremely cheap. People in general overacted to age, and guys like Harrison have been gold the last few years, well after he turned 31.

You do know Harrison is a WR, and not a RB, right?

Did I blow your mind by discussing aging WRs also? I'll slow down in the future.The paragraph you highlighted had nothing to do with running backs. It was people overacting to the age of NFL players. Players includes all players, not just running backs. Otherwise I would have said RBs.

Are we on the same page now?

Because of people overacting to age, there's a great value market for people looking to dump anyone who is 29-31. This includes WRs/QBs/TEs/RBs. I've seen numerous people talk about Manning's age, Plax, SA, Gonzo. Regardless of position, people are obsessed with youth, and you can pick up aging veterans usually fairly cheap.

If this confuses you, feel free to PM me. I'll walk you through it on a one on one basis. It's not unusual for people to have difficulty grasping simple ideas in a group setting. Pretty sure it has to do with feeling inadequate. Regardless, my PM box is open to you.

I never said dumping everyone at 29-31, just RB's. If you were look over my dynasty rosters, you will find plenty of 30 year old QB's and WR's. At this point i wouldnt sell SA, because you wouldnt get anything for him. The only people that value him are his optomistic owners.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

Thank you.Peterson over Westbrook and Portis is nothing short of ridiculous.

It very well may end up that way, but when i try to gauge each players production over the next 5-7 years, i cant help but to feel Peterson will have the better totals.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

Thank you.Peterson over Westbrook and Portis is nothing short of ridiculous.

It very well may end up that way, but when i try to gauge each players production over the next 5-7 years, i cant help but to feel Peterson will have the better totals.

Gauging a dynasty rank 7 years out is a bit extreme for my taste,Unless you are focused solely on winning your 2014 league championship,

not to mention injury concerns for Peterson.

I have more of a medium term look towards my dynasty rankings.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

Thank you.Peterson over Westbrook and Portis is nothing short of ridiculous.

It very well may end up that way, but when i try to gauge each players production over the next 5-7 years, i cant help but to feel Peterson will have the better totals.

Gauging a dynasty rank 7 years out is a bit extreme for my taste,Unless you are focused solely on winning your 2014 league championship,

not to mention injury concerns for Peterson.

I have more of a medium term look towards my dynasty rankings.

Not solely, but i certainly take it into account. I dont want to win just one year, i want to win all of them.

 

[cstu]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

I admit that i may overvalue young RB's, but the approach has yet to fail me in the 4 dynasty leagues i am in. As far as Portis, he has been overvalued since leaving the Broncos. As a 205 lb. back I also believe that he cant handle a 350+ carry workload that he has been getting since joining the Redskins. Add that to the fact that they will have what is essentially a rookie QB starting this year, and the presence of Betts, i just dont see Portis as a top 10-12 back.

LT had essentially a rookie QB and a much better backup than Portis and broke quite a few records - all without the benefit of an OL like the Redskins have. As for Portis' weight, I could have sworn he was over 210 these days.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I pasted this from another thread, but this is pretty much my top 12-15 RB's.(dynasty of course):

1.LT

2.SJax

3.Bush

4.LJ

5.Gore

6.Addai

7.RBrown

8.Maroney

9.Peterson®

10.Westbrook

11.Jones-Drew

12.Parker

Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.

You are way too high on the young backs - how many guys flame out after a couple years? That you don't even have Portis in your top 12 is mind-boggling.

I admit that i may overvalue young RB's, but the approach has yet to fail me in the 4 dynasty leagues i am in. As far as Portis, he has been overvalued since leaving the Broncos. As a 205 lb. back I also believe that he cant handle a 350+ carry workload that he has been getting since joining the Redskins. Add that to the fact that they will have what is essentially a rookie QB starting this year, and the presence of Betts, i just dont see Portis as a top 10-12 back.

LT had essentially a rookie QB and a much better backup than Portis and broke quite a few records - all without the benefit of an OL like the Redskins have. As for Portis' weight, I could have sworn he was over 210 these days.

Portis is not LT.