Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
As more information has trickled in from pro days and post-combine chatter the draft picture is getting a lot clearer. Here are five guys currently under, or even off, the radar that are strong candidates to either be drafted well ahead of their current projections or to subsequently outperform their draft position:
Engineer: Lonyae Miller (RB, Fresno State). If Ryan Matthews had never been born we'd be looking at Miller as a second round pick. As it is, he's a back from a lesser BCS conference who carried the ball only 68 times last year who's still being projected as a 4th/5th round pick. Why? For good reason it turns out. He's got decent size, was clocked as low as 4.43 at the combine and put up solid numbers in his limited action at Fresno State. At 216 (pro day weight) he compares favorably to Thomas Jones. At 221 (combine weight) he compares reasonably well with Ray Rice. But you don't have to buy those comparables (and I know you don't!) to buy the player - he'll probably be there in the third round of your rookie draft. Pick him.
Stoker: Marcus Easley (WR, Connecticut). Similar to Miller, Easley's currently projected well outside the top 100 picks, but the fact that someone with only nine career catches prior to his final eight games at U Conn is on the draft board at all should get your attention. Dig a little and you can see why. At almost 6'3" his low time in Indy was 4.39. And in those last eight college games he put up 44-667-7. Why didn't he start before the end of his senior season? Who cares! Let someone else take Damian Williams in the late first or early second and grab Easley in the third or later round of your rookie draft.
Porter: Charles Scott (RB, LSU). Unlike the first two members of our staff, Scott is a known quantity. In fact he was rated as high as a 2nd round pick and the #1 senior RB at the start of the season. But a relatively lackluster senior season that ended in injury, paired with a very slow 40 time at the combine (best reported time of 4.68) leaves him projected as late as a 5th round pick now. There are two reasons you might take a chance on Scott. First, he was only at full health for roughly one month before the combine, after being out three months with a broken collar bone (he missed his bowl game as well as the Senior Bowl), and weighed in a bit heavy in Indianapolis (238). But he showed up slimmer (back to his listed playing weight of 232) for his pro day, and reportedly ran a 4.53 and 4.54. I'm leery of using pro-day times, but in this instance it's possible that they're more representative of his true speed. If so he compares very well to Lamont Jordan and Travis Henry. But even if not Scott is a powerful, tackle-breaking runner with great vision and decent ball skills for a big back. As Pierre Thomas is showing there's a role for players like that in the NFL even if they're slow (4.64 at his pro day). And Scott could be yours for a late second or third rounder in your rookie draft.
Conductor: Andrew Quarless (TE, Penn State). It's harder to make the case for Quarless except to say that he's got prototypical TE size, ran a 4.68 and shares a number of less observable characteristics with the truly elite TEs of the last decade or so. Though he did put up 41-536-3 on a run-first team in his only full season as a starter, he's currently projected as a 5th or 6th round pick largely on the basis of a two suspensions in his sophomore and junior seasons for underage drinking and a marijuana incident. I don't know if I'd take a chance on him as an NFL GM, but I do know that as far as WW pickups and 4th round FF picks go he's awfully appealing.
Brakeman: Joe Webb (QB, UAB [WR]). Most WR conversion projects don't end well, and this one might not either. But his pro day measurables are off-the-charts sick (6'2", 223, 4.44, 42.5" and 11'5" [besting the top combine broad jump by five inches]) and he actually played the position in 2007. And like the other players on our train it's not going to cost you much more than a roster spot to find out what you've got.
Engineer: Lonyae Miller (RB, Fresno State). If Ryan Matthews had never been born we'd be looking at Miller as a second round pick. As it is, he's a back from a lesser BCS conference who carried the ball only 68 times last year who's still being projected as a 4th/5th round pick. Why? For good reason it turns out. He's got decent size, was clocked as low as 4.43 at the combine and put up solid numbers in his limited action at Fresno State. At 216 (pro day weight) he compares favorably to Thomas Jones. At 221 (combine weight) he compares reasonably well with Ray Rice. But you don't have to buy those comparables (and I know you don't!) to buy the player - he'll probably be there in the third round of your rookie draft. Pick him.
Stoker: Marcus Easley (WR, Connecticut). Similar to Miller, Easley's currently projected well outside the top 100 picks, but the fact that someone with only nine career catches prior to his final eight games at U Conn is on the draft board at all should get your attention. Dig a little and you can see why. At almost 6'3" his low time in Indy was 4.39. And in those last eight college games he put up 44-667-7. Why didn't he start before the end of his senior season? Who cares! Let someone else take Damian Williams in the late first or early second and grab Easley in the third or later round of your rookie draft.
Porter: Charles Scott (RB, LSU). Unlike the first two members of our staff, Scott is a known quantity. In fact he was rated as high as a 2nd round pick and the #1 senior RB at the start of the season. But a relatively lackluster senior season that ended in injury, paired with a very slow 40 time at the combine (best reported time of 4.68) leaves him projected as late as a 5th round pick now. There are two reasons you might take a chance on Scott. First, he was only at full health for roughly one month before the combine, after being out three months with a broken collar bone (he missed his bowl game as well as the Senior Bowl), and weighed in a bit heavy in Indianapolis (238). But he showed up slimmer (back to his listed playing weight of 232) for his pro day, and reportedly ran a 4.53 and 4.54. I'm leery of using pro-day times, but in this instance it's possible that they're more representative of his true speed. If so he compares very well to Lamont Jordan and Travis Henry. But even if not Scott is a powerful, tackle-breaking runner with great vision and decent ball skills for a big back. As Pierre Thomas is showing there's a role for players like that in the NFL even if they're slow (4.64 at his pro day). And Scott could be yours for a late second or third rounder in your rookie draft.
Conductor: Andrew Quarless (TE, Penn State). It's harder to make the case for Quarless except to say that he's got prototypical TE size, ran a 4.68 and shares a number of less observable characteristics with the truly elite TEs of the last decade or so. Though he did put up 41-536-3 on a run-first team in his only full season as a starter, he's currently projected as a 5th or 6th round pick largely on the basis of a two suspensions in his sophomore and junior seasons for underage drinking and a marijuana incident. I don't know if I'd take a chance on him as an NFL GM, but I do know that as far as WW pickups and 4th round FF picks go he's awfully appealing.
Brakeman: Joe Webb (QB, UAB [WR]). Most WR conversion projects don't end well, and this one might not either. But his pro day measurables are off-the-charts sick (6'2", 223, 4.44, 42.5" and 11'5" [besting the top combine broad jump by five inches]) and he actually played the position in 2007. And like the other players on our train it's not going to cost you much more than a roster spot to find out what you've got.
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Thanks for the info, Cecil.
Thanks for the info, Cecil.Since I don't have access to things like body fat percentage or weight distribution I don't try to account for them, but I'm sure they make a difference. Will be interesting to see how Miller shakes out.
I know some talent evaluators in the scouting community that were very interested in Miller before the All-Star games. Then we saw him up close and were severely disappointed. You can't take everything from a week of All-Star practice, but it's interesting to see him along with other backs like Anthony Dixon and LeGarrette Blount.
It's hard not to get excited about him. Cecil's guest on the Audible yesterday was high on him as well.
It's hard not to get excited about him. Cecil's guest on the Audible yesterday was high on him as well.
