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Anatomy of a Freak Show (1 Viewer)

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
found this on rams board & i think it is attributed to local STL journalist bernie miklasz... first of all, i don't think you need to compare them to SD & CHI, two of the better teams in the league, to find that they probably suffer in comparison with quite a few other teams... this article is a pretty withering critique and scathing indictment of rams front office (from 00-02 drafts, only three players even on team still, & none of them difference makers)... past few drafts have been better... jackson obviously a keeper, and so is tye hill, i think... i wonder about barron since he was reportedly one of two players called out by bulger (along with incognito)... also, i realize some of the hindsight stuff is absurd... virtually every team has made mistakes, graded players wrongly causing them to miss them or take the wrong guy early... but it isn't too controversial to suggest that some of their picks gone terribly wrong were of self-inflicted variety, like taking crouch in the third, or jacoby shepard in second (out of the league)... WAY too many projects that crashed and burned... i'm hopeful with addition of tony softli, who played key role in assembling CAR roster as it is presently constituted... certain teams just seem to be better at draft process... NE too obvious to elaborate on, but emphasis on football smarts, character & coachability has been huge... polian of IND likes to get players that are not only talented and grade high, but also that come from major conferences that have performed well under pressure (any rule of thumb can be taken too far... rashean mathis is a stud from small school, but playing the percentages, polian has done well)...

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"The drafting was not very good overall, but probably on par with other teams in the league. The biggest problem was not getting the star players out of the draft"

I've posted on this before. It is not good enough to be on a par with other teams. Successful teams have succesful drafts. And to be sure, we have done poorly in the "star" category.

From 2000 - 20002 the Rams drafted 24 players. Three, count em, three are still with the team (Butler, 2001 and Fisher and Massey, 2002). Five number one draft picks (Canidate, Lewis, Arch, Picket, Thomas) and not one is with the team. And Butler and Fisher may well be gone next year, leaving us with Massey.

Four from 2003 are still with the team (Kennedy, Pisa, Curtis, McDonald), with two of them starters. Kennedy has not lived up to expectations, though.

Two from 2004 (Jackson and Chillar). If not for Jackson, that is a total bust of a draft.

Eight from 2005 (Barron, Bartell, Atogwe, Incognito, Carter, Terrell, Fitz and Hedgecock). If Terrel pans out, this is a fantastic draft. Bartell - I don't know. Carter is a whiffing machine.

Seven from 2006 (Hill, Klop, Wroten, Alston, Byrd, Adeyanju, Setterstrom). This may turn out to be an outstanding draft. Too early to tell. Hill will be fine. Klop should develop. Sett looked good and may well be a starter if last week wasn't an aberration. Wroten and Adeyanju are keys.

The 2000-2002 drafts are particularly troublesome. Think what might have been:

Marcus Stroud was taken one pick after Lewis. Nate Clements one pick after Arch. Reggie Wayne one pick after Pickett. Kris Jenkins two picks after Polley. Reggie Hayward four picks after Allen.

Instead of Thomas, How about LeCharles Bentley or Clinton Portis. (Or me or you for that matter).

Instead of Kennedy, how about Ty Warren at the next pick or Polamalu four picks later.

Now look at San Diego. Three of their five O-linemen (McNeill, Hardwick and Olivea) were drafted during the same period and a fourth (Dielman) was signed as an OFA.

During that time they have also drafted LT, Rivers, Merriman, Castillo, Phillips and Olshansky.

Or Chicago. (Urlacher, Brown, Harris, Johnson, Scott, Briggs, harris, Tillman, Vasher, Grossman, berrian, Benson).

Nine - count em, nine - of their starters on D were drafted in the same period.

Now, to be sure, hindsight is 20/20. But those drafts from 2000-2002 were terrible and terribly costly.

And, you can point to quite a few teams that have been - at least - equally adept at screwing up drafts. But - and this is the bell ringer - they will be bad teams.

And how about the FA signings. Claiborne, Terry, Stone, Hawthorne, Tucker last year. And we let Ivy - a pretty darned good little football player - go.

How about Duncan and Herring.

Glover and Raonall Smith.

There is not one free agent starter - othr than Bulger - signed from 2000 to 2005.

San Diego? McCardell, Parker, LoNeal, Edwards, Godfrey, and McCree.

Chicago? Clark, Muhammad, McKie, Ogunleye, Hillenmayer.

How about original FA signings playing as starters. Rams? None.

San Diego. Guy named Gates. Kris Dielman.

Chicago has none as as starters.

Any way you slice it, prior to 2005, the Rams have done a poor job of building their roster. And that accounts for the differnce between us (5-6), and, say the Chargers (9-2) or the Bears (9-2), owners of the leagues best records for any team not based in Indy.

 
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As you say, hindsight's not very useful in this case and those are tough comparisons to make. Where is the comparison to the Lions, the Cardinals, the Bucs? Front offices go through bad stretches. Would you have traded the Rams front office from 1995 - 2000 for the Chargers'? I don't think so. It's also interesting that they narrow the range to 2000-2002, years the Rams were in fact very competitive. It's tough to stay on top forever, fire on all cylinders in all ways through an organization.

Everyone makes bad decisions sometimes. If it becomes endemic then yes, it's time to make some changes, but the post itself espouses hope for the most recent drafts. So was it just a bad stretch or are people really making bad decisions? It's not clear to me in this case yet. Let's also not forget the coaching turmoil the Rams have gone through in these past few years. Vermeil is a great head coach, and it's just plain tough to replace a guy like that, and that does create ripples throughout the organization. Players (except for Larry Johnson), like playing for that guy - not so much Mike Martz. Vermeil seems to be able to develop players, and get the best out of them - again I haven't really seen that with Martz, although you may credit QB development to him in some cases, I haven't seen it spill over to the other positions. Also, were the players being utilized in accordance with their capabilities, or did the system supercede that? Is it all bad personnel decisions, or is there some other blame to be shared as well? Are you going to attract the best free agents in that situation?

And at the end of the day the Rams are right around .500 anyway and aren't complete laughing stocks - ask a Lion fan how they'd feel about that.

ETA: To nitpick, McCardell was acquired in trade, not as a free agent.

 
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you make some thoughtful points, & i won't address them all here...

i agree a lot of teams were as bad or worse than STL front office... but to have 5 first rounders from 00-02 and not one of them still be with team is pretty harsh... and if you look not just in that time frame, but even from 00-04 (little harder to evaluate 05-06 drafts - too recent), other than jackson, really not a lot to show for it...

and good point about to what degree is leadership & coaching the culprit... this would probably show up if they starred elsewhere... really not the case with guys like archuleta, damione lewis... and certainly if guys like jacoby shepard are out of the league, that more likely reflects and is indicative of deeper rooted, more intrinsic flaws...

but in fairness, probably a lot of teams have drafted players that are out of the league half a decade or more later... the next draft is 07, & that seems like a long time ago from 00...

 
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Well, let's not speak in the abstract, let's look at some results - let's look at the 1st rounders for those years for everybody and see if we can't work up some indignation to throw at the Rams' front office:

Here's 2000s 1st round:

1 Cleveland Courtney Brown DE Penn State2 Washington LaVar Arrington OLB Penn State3 Washington Chris Samuels T Alabama +4 Cincinnati Peter Warrick WR Florida State -5 Baltimore Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee +6 Philadelphia Corey Simon DT Florida State7 Arizona Thomas Jones RB Virginia8 Pittsburgh Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State9 Chicago Brian Urlacher MLB New Mexico +10 Baltimore Travis Taylor WR Florida11 N.Y. Giants Ron Dayne RB Wisconsin12 N.Y. Jets Shaun Ellis DE Tennessee +13 N.Y. Jets John Abraham DE South Carolina14 Green Bay Bubba Franks TE Miami +15 Denver Deltha O'Neal CB California16 San Francisco Julian Peterson OLB Michigan State17 Oakland Sebastian Janikowski K Florida State +18 N.Y. Jets Chad Pennington QB Marshall +19 Seattle Shaun Alexander RB Alabama +20 Detroit Stockar McDougle T Oklahoma21 Kansas City Sylvester Morris WR Jackson State -22 Seattle Chris McIntosh T Wisconsin -23 Carolina Rashard Anderson CB Jackson State -24 San Francisco Ahmed Plummer CB Ohio State -25 Minnesota Chris Hovan DT Boston College26 Buffalo Erik Flowers DE Arizona State -27 N.Y. Jets Anthony Becht TE West Virginia28 Indianapolis Rob Morris MLB Brigham Young +29 Jacksonville R. Jay Soward WR Southern California30 Tennessee Keith Bulluck OLB Syracuse +31 St. Louis Trung Canidate RB Arizona -Players who are still in the NFL and on the team they were drafted have a "+" next to them. In this draft there are 9 of 31 that fit that descriptionPlayers who I can't find on an active NFL roster have a "-" next to them. In this draft there are 7 of the 31 that fit that description.

The Rams picked last this year, and indeed their selection is currently not on an active roster.

 
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Here's 2001:

Code:
1	Atlanta	Michael Vick	QB	Virginia Tech +2	Arizona	Leonard Davis	T	Texas +3	Cleveland	Gerard Warren	DT	Florida 4	Cincinnati	Justin Smith	DE	Missouri +5	San Diego	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	Texas Christian +6	New England	Richard Seymour	DE	Georgia +7	San Francisco	Andre Carter	OLB	California 8	Chicago	David Terrell	WR	Michigan - 9	Seattle	Koren Robinson	WR	North Carolina State 10	Green Bay	Jamal Reynolds	DE	Florida State - 11	Carolina	Dan Morgan	MLB	Miami +12	St. Louis	Damione Lewis	NT	Miami13	Jacksonville	Marcus Stroud	DT	Georgia +14	Tampa Bay	Kenyatta Walker	T	Florida +15	Washington	Rod Gardner	WR	Clemson16	N.Y. Jets	Santana Moss	WR	Miami17	Seattle	Steve Hutchinson	G	Michigan18	Detroit	Jeff Backus	T	Michigan +19	Pittsburgh	Casey Hampton	NT	Texas +20	St. Louis	Adam Archuleta	SS	Arizona State21	Buffalo	Nate Clements	CB	Ohio State +22	N.Y. Giants	Will Allen	CB	Syracuse 23	New Orleans	Deuce McAllister	RB	Mississippi +24	Denver	Willie Middlebrooks	CB	Minnesota -25	Philadelphia	Freddie Mitchell	WR	UCLA -26	Miami	Jamar Fletcher	CB	Wisconsin27	Minnesota	Michael Bennett	RB	Wisconsin28	Oakland	Derrick Gibson	SS	Florida State +29	St. Louis	Ryan Pickett	NT	Ohio State 30	Indianapolis	Reggie Wayne	WR	Miami +31	Baltimore	Todd Heap	TE	Arizona State +
A better year overall this year, 15 players are still with their original teams, only 4 washouts.
 
And lastly here's 2002:

Code:
1	Houston	David Carr	QB	Fresno State +2	Carolina	Julius Peppers	DE	North Carolina +3	Detroit	Joey Harrington	QB	Oregon4	Buffalo	Mike Williams	T	Texas5	San Diego	Quentin Jammer	CB	Texas +6	Kansas City	Ryan Sims	DT	North Carolina +7	Minnesota	Bryant McKinnie	T	Miami +8	Dallas	Roy Williams	SS	Oklahoma +9	Jacksonville	John Henderson	DT	Tennessee +10	Cincinnati	Levi Jones	T	Arizona State +11	Indianapolis	Dwight Freeney	DE	Syracuse +12	Arizona	Wendell Bryant	DT	Wisconsin -13	New Orleans	Donte' Stallworth	WR	Tennessee14	N.Y. Giants	Jeremy Shockey	TE	Miami +15	Tennessee	Albert Haynesworth	DT	Tennessee +16	Cleveland	William Green	RB	Boston College -17	Oakland	Phillip Buchanon	CB	Miami 18	Atlanta	T.J. Duckett	RB	Michigan State19	Denver	Ashley Lelie	WR	Hawaii20	Green Bay	Javon Walker	WR	Florida State21	New England	Daniel Graham	TE	Colorado +22	N.Y. Jets	Bryan Thomas	DE	Ala.-Birmingham +23	Oakland	Napoleon Harris	OLB	Northwestern 24	Baltimore	Ed Reed	SS	Miami +25	New Orleans	Charles Grant	DE	Georgia +26	Philadelphia	Lito Sheppard	CB	Florida +27	San Francisco	Mike Rumph	FS	Miami 28	Seattle	Jerramy Stevens	TE	Washington +29	Chicago	Marc Colombo	T	Boston College 30	Pittsburgh	Kendall Simmons	G	Auburn +31	St. Louis	Robert Thomas	OLB	UCLA 32	Washington	Patrick Ramsey	QB	Tulane
Even better this year, 18 players still on their original teams, only 2 washouts.
 
So it's a small sample size, given, maybe it's a collection of statistical outliers. But those are the years in discussion, though they're not all the rounds. What can we see?

Firstly it looks like players are more likely to still be in the league and still be on the team they were drafted the more recent the year they were drafted in was. I don't find that surprising.

Secondly it looks like roughly half (if we average these years together) of the players change teams. I don't know that players not being on the same team they were drafted is a good measure of the quality of the draft choices, although in the Rams' case it may be that some of them were bad decisions.

Indeed it looks like the Rams were subpar these seasons. But I don't think it's outside the norm of statistical probability that this could happen.

Also there seems to be no visible pattern as to which organizations make the worst selections in viewing the wash outs. Chicago is right there with David Terrell and they're being used as the model organization in the original rant.

So i'd agree that the Rams have not done a superlative job of assembling talent given the years cherrypicked for the discussion, but I don't know that it's necessarily the overriding reason the Rams are having a mediocre season here in 2006. I mean, Cincy seems to have done o.k. despite the Peter Warrick selection.

Then finally there's the accusation levied that the Rams failed to find any stars. Well, I know it's only the 1st rounds given above, but in that collection of names I only see maybe 5 or 6 bonafide stars. So the odds are against finding a "star," and I don't know that that such a telling metric in regards to analyzing this situation.

I guess I'm not seeing a Freak Show here, maybe a subpar effort, but not a Freak Show.

 
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Im not sure what the authors point was in mentioning that Arch, Lewis and Pickett are no longer with this team?

This isnt a criticism of the Rams' drafting ability, its a criticism of their ability to lock key performers up long-term.

 
the first round is important, but teams like NE wouldn't be the same if they were restricted to first round drafting... teams are also stocked and built up in mid & latter rounds... any team can have a bad draft, as as i said above, i think their were too many project types like jacoby shepard & eric crouch taken that don't fall under purview of an analysis restricted to first round only...

as to cherry picking, i'm not sure that was intention of author... he chose a time frame recently enough where (some) players are still playing... what is life expectancy in NFL... it may vary by position, & probably injuries bring average down, but for RBs it is like 3-4 years...

we could go back further, but i'm not sure if looking at rams drafts in the 70s or 80s would tell us that much?

i'm guessing one reason the period from 00-onwards was looked at... not to cherry pick, but that is time frame martz took over... not that he he had final authority (i'm pretty sure he didn't... guys like zygmunt & armey may have had more pull in war room), but picks like trung canidate & eric crouch have his fingerprints all over them...

to answer question by another poster, i think if archuleta & damione lewis HAD been stars, they might have been retained... archuleta isn't even starting in WAS (neither is lewis)...

another factor mentioned in article is rams don't have a great track record in free agency... witherspoon has been great, & fakhir brown solid, but not sure corey chavous is a huge difference maker & la'roi glover past his prime...

part of that was having a very good offense & a lot of cap dollars allocated to that (problem for IND for a long time, & to an extent still that way)... also, some bad contracts like dead money for warner when he wasn't even on team (ditto for turley) precluded making a splash in free agancy, so that is a complicated factor and needs to be disentangled... turley back injury hard to predict... warner was re-signed at a time when he seemed to be on the way down & that might have been more forseeable...

i heard that rams didn't believe in taking OL early because hanifan liked to coach up later rounders... that decision magnified over a longer period that spanned maybe half decade or so (you can't always pop in rookies & it can take 2-3 years to groom them) could be coming back to haunt rams organization... lately it has been bigger emphasis, with barron & incognito both day one in 05... & even barron had red flags for being lackadaisacal & incognito had broken knee cap & anger management problems & was kicked off multiple teams... doesn't sound like the kind of players pats would take to me... maybe there is a reason why they are where they are & rams are where they are?

anthony hargrove had an academic suspension at GA tech and only played two years, very raw & a project, and he was another wasted pick... did they need to take bartell in second... great measurables, but a small school gamble (at least rashean mathis was one of best small school players in nation)...

my point isn't that rams should be perfect, groovus... mistakes will happen... but when too many picks crash & burn that were projects, conversions, head cases... it makes you wonder if it is a systemic issue (just like it would be crazy to not take a long, hard look at millen in DET since he was in charge during many recent draft fiascos in motor city)... ARO may have been hit & miss, but drafting guys like leinart, boldin, fitzgerald, adrian wilson, antrel rolle, hayes, dansby & dockett is pretty solid in my book... cards have a very talented young nucleus...

some of rams top talent like bruce, pace & little is aging & they haven't done greatest job replenishing...

while i'm ranting, the rams drafting on defense has been abominable... little is great but he was drafted a long time ago... they had grant wistrom but let it go... hard to say, but team like PHI might have found way to sign him... tinoisamoa had promise but is constantly hurt & is playing LB with a safety frame... best LB they developed was UFA london fletcher (coup for armey)... but they let him go, and have never really recovered (witherspoon is great, but maybe miscast as MLB)... secondary pretty average in this time frame, too...

it is hard to look at rams drafts in martz era and say they did an even average job drafting on defense...

 
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Re: Cherry picking -

I found it very curious to arbitrarily cut off the years at 2000. I mean, if we're talking about drafting why not include 1999?

Rams 1999 draft:

1) Tory Holt

2) Dre' Bly

3) Richard Coady

4) Joe Germaine

5) Cameron Spikes

6) Lionel Barnes

7) Rodney Williams

Here's the flaw in the rant. 1999 is not in any way too far removed from 2000. There are two very good players there in that draft, one could even be called a "star." Yet this draft isn't included in arbitrary set of years on which the rant is based. I have a problem with that. Why was Bly allowed to leave in 2003? He shouldn't have been - who's repsonsible for that?

I think we've both mentioned the most likely cause of the Rams' problems - Martz. I think his ego, and his limitations are really what's left it's mark on the team in many ways, beyond just the draft or free agent signings. Martz was the problem - poor drafts and free agent hauls were just a symptom, not the reasons for why the Rams are where they are in 2006.

 
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the fact that martz had input on the draft makes them hard to separate them in my mind...

if you are indicting martz, that goes hand in hand with his drafts...

i think armey & zygmunt also had say... you really haven't addressed projects & conversions (archuleta & crouch changing positions), character risks...

i stand by them having some more systemic problems than just cherry picking some bad luck years... you make your luck by taking projects like hargrove, bartell...

 

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