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Anatomy of a prospect: Pitt HB LeSean McCoy (1 Viewer)

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
Every drill the NFL conducts at its annual scouting combine has a purpose. Power, speed and explosion all are measured to determine a prospect's chances of succeeding at the next level. The NFL wants its running backs fast and explosive. A 40-yard dash measures speed, and the vertical and standing broad jumps measure explosion. You find out how much spring a runner has in his legs with his jumps. The NFL covets those who can vertical in the mid 30s and long jump beyond 10 feet.At the 2008 combine, East Carolina's Chris Johnson charted a vertical jump of 35 inches and a long jump of 10 feet, 10 inches. That explosion translated into a 1,228-yard rushing season with the Tennessee Titans and NFL Rookie of the Year honors. The year before, Adrian Peterson produced a veritical of 36 1/2 inches and a long jump of 10-7. That translated into a 1,760-yard season in 2007 and NFL Rookie of the Year honors. When LaDainian Tomlinson came out of TCU, he gave the NFL a 40-inch vertical jump and a broad of 10-4. Powerful legs produce productive careers.That's why there's a red flag up for LeSean McCoy in the 2009 NFL draft. The NFL loved his college productivity. He started two years at Pitt and was a two-time All-Big East selection. He joined Tony Dorsett and Curvin Richards as the only backs in school history with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. His 1,488 rushing yards in 2008 ranked 10th in the nation and his 21 touchdowns ranked second.But at his pro day in mid-March, McCoy produced a vertical jump of 29 inches and a broad jump of only 8-11. The draft is all about measurables. The average jumps for the 26 running backs invited to the combine were 35 1/2 for the vertical and 9-8 for the broad. McCoy's jumps were the worst at his position :coffee: . Where's the explosion? It could cost him on draft day.
Oh boy
 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst.

BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.

 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst. BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.
This is pretty interesting to me since I don't pay any attention to those measurables, but have McCoy as an absolutely don't draft player based on the #s I do generate.I think there's a 0.0% chance McCoy is a legitimate NFL starter and that he'll be a wasted pick for some NFL team.
 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst. BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.
This is pretty interesting to me since I don't pay any attention to those measurables, but have McCoy as an absolutely don't draft player based on the #s I do generate.I think there's a 0.0% chance McCoy is a legitimate NFL starter and that he'll be a wasted pick for some NFL team.
I so love it when the Magic 8 Ball gives such specific answers...0.0% !!!!
 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst. BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.
This is pretty interesting to me since I don't pay any attention to those measurables, but have McCoy as an absolutely don't draft player based on the #s I do generate.I think there's a 0.0% chance McCoy is a legitimate NFL starter and that he'll be a wasted pick for some NFL team.
I initially saw him as Westbrook/Bush/Faulk type of back who could thrive in a combo receiving/rushing role that played to his strengths. Now I'm wondering if he has the goods to earn that kind of opportunity in the NFL. I really expected him to be one of the workout warriors of this RB group. Now that he's bombed, I'm thinking he might just be a flashy change of pace back like Jamaal Charles. It will certainly be interesting to see how he fares at the next level. He doesn't have prototypical size and he doesn't have the freakish combine profile of other undersized RBs like Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush. Given the quality of the WR talent in this draft, I'll be looking elsewhere in my PPR leagues.
 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst. BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.
This is pretty interesting to me since I don't pay any attention to those measurables, but have McCoy as an absolutely don't draft player based on the #s I do generate.I think there's a 0.0% chance McCoy is a legitimate NFL starter and that he'll be a wasted pick for some NFL team.
I initially saw him as Westbrook/Bush/Faulk type of back who could thrive in a combo receiving/rushing role that played to his strengths. Now I'm wondering if he has the goods to earn that kind of opportunity in the NFL. I really expected him to be one of the workout warriors of this RB group. Now that he's bombed, I'm thinking he might just be a flashy change of pace back like Jamaal Charles. It will certainly be interesting to see how he fares at the next level. He doesn't have prototypical size and he doesn't have the freakish combine profile of other undersized RBs like Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush. Given the quality of the WR talent in this draft, I'll be looking elsewhere in my PPR leagues.
I dimissed the negative talk about McCoy..........not so much now. The Goose is pretty good at evaluating these things. I don't know if he'll be a bust or not but at #2 and #3 (which I traded for) non ppr leagues, I'll pass unless I see something different during training camp and pre-season.
 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst. BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.
And I just got flamed for ranking him as the #7 RB behind Brown and Jennings... before the pro day flop. This may drop him below Ringer too. I think Leon Washington may be generous. I think he's Reggie Bush without the 6th gear and lacking power. That's right. I said Reggie MINUS POWER and speed. Collegs LBs were taking this guy down with arm tackles that didn't slow S.Greene down. Pro safeties are gonna knock this guy's block off.
 
Wow, he goes from STUD Westbrook style player to 3rd down back (Leon Washington) all on what he does in his underwear?

I guess I just use these combines numbers differently than most.

Maybe it helps me decide between 2 guys I value pretty even, but I can't drop/raise someone so much based on drills.

 
Wow, he goes from STUD Westbrook style player to 3rd down back (Leon Washington) all on what he does in his underwear?

I guess I just use these combines numbers differently than most.

Maybe it helps me decide between 2 guys I value pretty even, but I can't drop/raise someone so much based on drills.
FWIW, I had him #7 a long time ago. Well before this piss poor showing. Most don't, but I'm not a lemming, and there are a couple others screaming from the rooftops to be wary of drafting this kid. There are many more that have him as their #1 RB in this draft than there are putting him <#5, but those of us who have him low are saying it loudly.
 
Wow, he goes from STUD Westbrook style player to 3rd down back (Leon Washington) all on what he does in his underwear?

I guess I just use these combines numbers differently than most.

Maybe it helps me decide between 2 guys I value pretty even, but I can't drop/raise someone so much based on drills.
FWIW, I had him #7 a long time ago. Well before this piss poor showing. Most don't, but I'm not a lemming, and there are a couple others screaming from the rooftops to be wary of drafting this kid. There are many more that have him as their #1 RB in this draft than there are putting him <#5, but those of us who have him low are saying it loudly.
I understanding a low initial ranking.Everyone will have their reasons for any sort of ranking, but to drop/raise someone so drastically from drill results seems a tad much, at least to me.

 
I *kinda* like him still - am sitting on the 1.05 in one league and depending where he lands I might grab him if he's available. Still, I'm not sold he's a slam dunk at all.

 
Wow, he goes from STUD Westbrook style player to 3rd down back (Leon Washington) all on what he does in his underwear?I guess I just use these combines numbers differently than most.Maybe it helps me decide between 2 guys I value pretty even, but I can't drop/raise someone so much based on drills.
That line of thinking holds when the guy in question produced top flight "in game" numbers vs top flight talent. I mean Pitt plays a big east schedule, which usually means that you are playing against undersized/slower defenses than say the OSU's?USC's/Fla's of the world. The draft is littered with guys who were "pretty good" in college but didn't have the talent to hack it with the NFL size and speed.Frankly I'd rather take the 4th string RB at USC who has about 250 miles on him, over a guy who produced decent numbers at a second tier school and doesn't have the "measurables". Then agin by that logic (though I forget his "measurables") I might miss a guy like westbrook, or Curtis Martin.
 
I love it how a lot of people had McCoy #1 after the combine only because the others had a poor showing. I like McCoy but kinda glad this happened.

 
The guy should have given some examples of other running backs with poor numbers who went on to fail in the NFL. All he said was basically 3 great players could jump high and far. Thanks for nothing.

 
The guy should have given some examples of other running backs with poor numbers who went on to fail in the NFL. All he said was basically 3 great players could jump high and far. Thanks for nothing.
EBF has a list of RB verticals and high jumps. As I recall, those are really bad numbers and I'm not sure there are many RB's with similar numbers who went on to have a major fantasy impact. Maybe EBF can post those so we can check.
 
The guy should have given some examples of other running backs with poor numbers who went on to fail in the NFL. All he said was basically 3 great players could jump high and far. Thanks for nothing.
EBF has a list of RB verticals and high jumps. As I recall, those are really bad numbers and I'm not sure there are many RB's with similar numbers who went on to have a major fantasy impact. Maybe EBF can post those so we can check.
I tend to value the broad jump and 40 time more than anything else by a RB besides Height/Weight.Out of the RBs who did the broad jump at the combine this year 9'10 was the worst and that was Goodson, the best was Wells/Javarris Williams at 10'8 and we all seen Wells hit near 11' a few times. Others who participated were Coffee, Brown, Greene, Jennings, Kimble, Scott, Sheets. I can't find a jump by Moreno. 8'11 by McCoy raises some serious red flags for me.Out of the 15 RBs who did the vertical Donald Brown came in tops at 41.5 and Tyrell Sutton came in last at 33.0. McCoy came in with a 29.0. This raises some red flags for me, not as much as the broad jump obviously.I have always liked watching McCoy play, I was hoping to draft the guy in some dynasty leagues but I am really rethinking that plan at this point. Unless Moreno or Brown blow their pro days I would be shocked if McCoy is drafted before Moreno, Wells, Brown, I can't see him sniffing the first round, he might be looking to slip into the early 3rd round although mid/late 2nd seems likely. I am echoing EBF and agreeing that his pro day numbers are TERRIBLE.
Might help minus the diatribe by me.
 
The guy should have given some examples of other running backs with poor numbers who went on to fail in the NFL. All he said was basically 3 great players could jump high and far. Thanks for nothing.
EBF has a list of RB verticals and high jumps. As I recall, those are really bad numbers and I'm not sure there are many RB's with similar numbers who went on to have a major fantasy impact. Maybe EBF can post those so we can check.
I tend to value the broad jump and 40 time more than anything else by a RB besides Height/Weight.

Out of the RBs who did the broad jump at the combine this year 9'10 was the worst and that was Goodson, the best was Wells/Javarris Williams at 10'8 and we all seen Wells hit near 11' a few times. Others who participated were Coffee, Brown, Greene, Jennings, Kimble, Scott, Sheets. I can't find a jump by Moreno. 8'11 by McCoy raises some serious red flags for me.

Out of the 15 RBs who did the vertical Donald Brown came in tops at 41.5 and Tyrell Sutton came in last at 33.0. McCoy came in with a 29.0. This raises some red flags for me, not as much as the broad jump obviously.

I have always liked watching McCoy play, I was hoping to draft the guy in some dynasty leagues but I am really rethinking that plan at this point. Unless Moreno or Brown blow their pro days I would be shocked if McCoy is drafted before Moreno, Wells, Brown, I can't see him sniffing the first round, he might be looking to slip into the early 3rd round although mid/late 2nd seems likely. I am echoing EBF and agreeing that his pro day numbers are TERRIBLE.
Might help minus the diatribe by me.
Here's the post I was thinking of. Doesn't look good for McCoy.The RB's with the lowest vertical who were actually successful that I could find were Domanick Davis at 31.5" and Sproles at 33". A 29" is more than a huge red flag to me when you factor in that he only ran in the low 4.5's.

 
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The guy should have given some examples of other running backs with poor numbers who went on to fail in the NFL. All he said was basically 3 great players could jump high and far. Thanks for nothing.
EBF has a list of RB verticals and high jumps. As I recall, those are really bad numbers and I'm not sure there are many RB's with similar numbers who went on to have a major fantasy impact. Maybe EBF can post those so we can check.
A first round RB will usually jump 9'10"+ in the broad jump and 33"+ better in the vertical leap. The broad jump marks seem to vary depending on height, so you would expect short guys like Maurice Drew to do worse than tall guys like Darren McFadden. Here are the jump numbers for first round RBs from 2008-2004 (not that the verticals were low across the board at the 2008 combine. I think there may have been errors in the measurement process.)Darren McFaddenBroad Jump: 10'8"Vertical: 33" (combine), 35.5" (pro day) Jonathan StewartBroad Jump: 10'8"Vertical: 36.5" Felix JonesBroad Jump: 10'4"Vertical: 33.5" (combine), 34.5" (pro day)Rashard MendenhallBroad Jump: 9'9"Vertical: 33.5"Chris JohnsonBroad Jump: 10'10"Vertical: 35"Adrian PetersonBroad Jump: 10'7"Vertical: 38.5"Marshawn LynchBroad Jump: 10'5"Vertical: 35.5"Reggie BushBroad Jump: 10'8"Vertical: 40.5"Laurence MaroneyBroad Jump: 10'3"Vertical: 36"DeAngelo WilliamsBroad Jump: 10'1" (combine), 10'9" (pro day)Vertical: 35.5" (combine), 34.5" (pro day)Joseph AddaiBroad Jump: 10'5"Vertical: 38.5"Ronnie BrownBroad Jump: 9'9"Vertical: 34"Cedric BensonBroad Jump: 9'8"Vertical: 33"Cadillac WilliamsBroad Jump: 9'10"Vertical: 35.5"Steven JacksonBroad Jump: 9'10"Vertical: 37.5"Chris PerryBroad Jump: 10'4"Vertical: 34.5"Kevin JonesBroad Jump: 10'0"Vertical: 37"The results vary from player to player, but for the most part you're seeing vertical leaps of 33" or better and broad jumps of 9'10" or better. I would say those are near the baseline of what's acceptable from a top RB prospect. McCoy jumped 8'11" in the broad jump and 29" in the vertical leap. I can't recall a top RB prospect doing worse in the past 5 years off the top of my head. At the same time, not every great pro RB was a workout warrior:Michael TurnerBroad Jump: 9'6"Vertical: 31"Frank GoreBroad Jump: 9'1"Vertical: 34"Obviously measurables aren't the only factor in success, but they do seem to play a role. Guys like Gore and Turner are pretty rare. Most of the top pro backs also performed well in drills. I generally try not to overreact to combine results, but it's hard not to be alarmed by McCoy's results. When you add in the fact that he's undersized at 5'11" 204, I think he starts to look like a very risky prospect. Greene, Moreno, Wells, and Brown all come out of the postseason looking like safer picks (not to mention Peerman, A. Brown, Sheets, Jennings, etc).
 
The results vary from player to player, but for the most part you're seeing vertical leaps of 33" or better and broad jumps of 9'10" or better. I would say those are near the baseline of what's acceptable from a top RB prospect. McCoy jumped 8'11" in the broad jump and 29" in the vertical leap. I can't recall a top RB prospect doing worse in the past 5 years off the top of my head. At the same time, not every great pro RB was a workout warrior:

Michael Turner

Broad Jump: 9'6"

Vertical: 31"

Frank Gore

Broad Jump: 9'1"

Vertical: 34"

Obviously measurables aren't the only factor in success, but they do seem to play a role. Guys like Gore and Turner are pretty rare. Most of the top pro backs also performed well in drills. I generally try not to overreact to combine results, but it's hard not to be alarmed by McCoy's results. When you add in the fact that he's undersized at 5'11" 204, I think he starts to look like a very risky prospect. Greene, Moreno, Wells, and Brown all come out of the postseason looking like safer picks (not to mention Peerman, A. Brown, Sheets, Jennings, etc).
But unlike most of the other guys, those two are built like bowling balls. McCoy doesn't have the same excuse. I wouldn't expect the same type of numbers from Turner & Gore. I'd be curious to see the numbers for RBs like Brandon Jacobs, Jerome Bettis and Jamal Lewis.
 
Great thread & info. here....Is there "any" possibility that the reason given of him being ill & having lost weight has something to do with the numbers (Agents' explaination). I mean, I know Mayock & others (like EBF/The DraftGuys/Etc....) who watch a LOT of film have the guy still ranked fairly high (top 4 at the position - EBF DID have him PPR 1 before this). I know he's risky but he may fall into a more favorable spot in the 2nd now (like Clev/Sea/Cincy) like Forte did last year. As opposed to the higher ranked guys possibly landing on teams drafting best avail. player like Pitt & Carolina & Dallas did last year....

Just curious for those rare leagues (like one I'm in) where we draft rookies predraft....

 
Great thread & info. here....Is there "any" possibility that the reason given of him being ill & having lost weight has something to do with the numbers (Agents' explaination). I mean, I know Mayock & others (like EBF/The DraftGuys/Etc....) who watch a LOT of film have the guy still ranked fairly high (top 4 at the position - EBF DID have him PPR 1 before this). I know he's risky but he may fall into a more favorable spot in the 2nd now (like Clev/Sea/Cincy) like Forte did last year. As opposed to the higher ranked guys possibly landing on teams drafting best avail. player like Pitt & Carolina & Dallas did last year....

Just curious for those rare leagues (like one I'm in) where we draft rookies predraft....
Currently, for PPR:Crab

Greene

Moreno

Brown

Wells

Harvin

DHB

Nicks

Maclin

Stafford

Brown

Jennings

Ringer

McCoy

Britt

Robiske

Sanchez

Freeman

Cook

Had him as the #7 RB earlier in the week. This drops him to 8th RB off the board for me which translates into - I'm not drafting him.

 
Great thread & info. here....Is there "any" possibility that the reason given of him being ill & having lost weight has something to do with the numbers (Agents' explaination). I mean, I know Mayock & others (like EBF/The DraftGuys/Etc....) who watch a LOT of film have the guy still ranked fairly high (top 4 at the position - EBF DID have him PPR 1 before this). I know he's risky but he may fall into a more favorable spot in the 2nd now (like Clev/Sea/Cincy) like Forte did last year. As opposed to the higher ranked guys possibly landing on teams drafting best avail. player like Pitt & Carolina & Dallas did last year....

Just curious for those rare leagues (like one I'm in) where we draft rookies predraft....
Currently, for PPR:Crab

Greene

Moreno

Brown

Wells

Harvin

DHB

Nicks

Maclin

Stafford

Brown

Jennings

Ringer

McCoy

Britt

Robiske

Sanchez

Freeman

Cook

Had him as the #7 RB earlier in the week. This drops him to 8th RB off the board for me which translates into - I'm not drafting him.
Why would you have Shonn Greene ranked 2nd in a PPR league?
 
Great thread & info. here....Is there "any" possibility that the reason given of him being ill & having lost weight has something to do with the numbers (Agents' explaination). I mean, I know Mayock & others (like EBF/The DraftGuys/Etc....) who watch a LOT of film have the guy still ranked fairly high (top 4 at the position - EBF DID have him PPR 1 before this). I know he's risky but he may fall into a more favorable spot in the 2nd now (like Clev/Sea/Cincy) like Forte did last year. As opposed to the higher ranked guys possibly landing on teams drafting best avail. player like Pitt & Carolina & Dallas did last year....Just curious for those rare leagues (like one I'm in) where we draft rookies predraft....
Anything is possible, but if he had been feeling that sick at his pro day then I doubt he would've worked out at all.Remember, he was able to clock a decent 40 time, so it's not like he was totally incapacitated.
 
The guy should have given some examples of other running backs with poor numbers who went on to fail in the NFL. All he said was basically 3 great players could jump high and far. Thanks for nothing.
EBF has a list of RB verticals and high jumps. As I recall, those are really bad numbers and I'm not sure there are many RB's with similar numbers who went on to have a major fantasy impact. Maybe EBF can post those so we can check.
Adrian PetersonBroad Jump: 10'7"Vertical: 38.5"Reggie BushBroad Jump: 10'8"Vertical: 40.5"
Dang, look at these two. Those are impressive numbers.
 
Wow, he goes from STUD Westbrook style player to 3rd down back (Leon Washington) all on what he does in his underwear?I guess I just use these combines numbers differently than most.Maybe it helps me decide between 2 guys I value pretty even, but I can't drop/raise someone so much based on drills.
That line of thinking holds when the guy in question produced top flight "in game" numbers vs top flight talent. I mean Pitt plays a big east schedule, which usually means that you are playing against undersized/slower defenses than say the OSU's?USC's/Fla's of the world. The draft is littered with guys who were "pretty good" in college but didn't have the talent to hack it with the NFL size and speed.Frankly I'd rather take the 4th string RB at USC who has about 250 miles on him, over a guy who produced decent numbers at a second tier school and doesn't have the "measurables". Then agin by that logic (though I forget his "measurables") I might miss a guy like westbrook, or Curtis Martin.
While I agree with this logic to a certain extent you also have to remember that Ptt had no other offensive options except for McCoy. They had the worst qb starting for them I have ever seen for a divison one team. (I'm not going overboard here.)
 
My advice is to trade for those 1.7 to 1.10 picks in PPR leagues and hope he drops :thumbup:
Yeah, in PPR he could drop that far. In non-PPR, there is no way he makes it to pick 1.07
Now, I was thinking the exact opposite.
me 2
me 3. McCoy is a lot more valuable in PPR than non-PPR.
Admittedly I don't play in PPR leagues, so evidently I'm off base. In my non-PPR league (which places HUGE value on RBs), there is no freaking way McCoy lasts til pick 1.07
 
McCoy was ill before the combine and had lost 10 lbs and I would assume a good deal of strength. I don't know if that had an affect on his poor showing but it makes sense.

All I know he was by far the best player on Pitt and they're definitely going to miss him. The Steelers aren't in the market for a RB but if he was still around in the 3rd it wouldn't bother me a bit if they grabbed him.

 
McCoy's not going to be drafted in the first 2 rounds.

He's at best a 3rd rounder.

Great college player but his game doesn't translate to the NFL as a feature type guy, he's a role player who will get 6-10 touches a game.

 
I think watching a guy play means a lot more than any combine-type measurements.

To me, LeSean McCoy looks like he can be an effective weapon in an NFL offense. He is great in open space. Throw a screen pass to him, and he's got fantastic vision and moves, and gets upfield without wasting any steps. Some backs with great moves tend to waste a lot of time dancing in the backfield. All of McCoy's lateral steps are made with a purpose of turning upfield as fast as possible.

While he's as dangerous as anyone with a big hole to run though, I do question whether he can be a decent inside runner when there isn't a huge hole for him. For that reason, I'd draft him as a change-of-pace, third-down type back rather than as an every-down back. But in that role, I think he can be effective.

As for the broad jump stuff, I guess there are at least four ways to look at it.

1) On film, he's an athlete, plain and simple. The pro day numbers must be an aberration. (If that's the case, he should hold another workout.)

2) Assuming the pro day numbers are legit and he really can't broad jump very well -- who cares? He's a running back, not a jumping back. His 40 time was fine.

3) Assuming the pro day numbers are legit, he obviously lacks explosive power and will never be a strong NFL runner.

4) Assuming the pro day numbers are legit, he's got boatloads of potential. Look how effective he was even without any explosive power. Just wait till an NFL trainer puts him through a Joe DeFranco-type program and he maximizes his lower-body strength and power. He'll be superman.

 
The results vary from player to player, but for the most part you're seeing vertical leaps of 33" or better and broad jumps of 9'10" or better. I would say those are near the baseline of what's acceptable from a top RB prospect. McCoy jumped 8'11" in the broad jump and 29" in the vertical leap. I can't recall a top RB prospect doing worse in the past 5 years off the top of my head. At the same time, not every great pro RB was a workout warrior:

Michael Turner

Broad Jump: 9'6"

Vertical: 31"

Frank Gore

Broad Jump: 9'1"

Vertical: 34"

Obviously measurables aren't the only factor in success, but they do seem to play a role. Guys like Gore and Turner are pretty rare. Most of the top pro backs also performed well in drills. I generally try not to overreact to combine results, but it's hard not to be alarmed by McCoy's results. When you add in the fact that he's undersized at 5'11" 204, I think he starts to look like a very risky prospect. Greene, Moreno, Wells, and Brown all come out of the postseason looking like safer picks (not to mention Peerman, A. Brown, Sheets, Jennings, etc).
But unlike most of the other guys, those two are built like bowling balls. McCoy doesn't have the same excuse. I wouldn't expect the same type of numbers from Turner & Gore. I'd be curious to see the numbers for RBs like Brandon Jacobs, Jerome Bettis and Jamal Lewis.
Jacobs had a 37" vert (not sure about Bettis or Jamal) ... size shouldn't have an impact on their vertical jump...My question is for all that are knocking Mccoy well down there lists, what is the one thing that you think a player can improve on going into the NFL ? 1) speed 2) strength 3) vision 4) agility ?

For me, strength would be the one that will improve the most in an NFL workout environment (not to mention he is 20 years old) .... Mccoy has good enough speed, and had the best 3-cone time of any RB this year (agility/quickness) ....

I'm disappointed by McCoy's broad/vert. measurements, but he is still a top 4 back for me.

 
The problem with the "improvement" argument is that McCoy's numbers are still terrible compared to other underclassmen RBs at the same stage of their careers. Guys like Reggie Bush, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, and Darren McFadden were also very young when they entered the draft and that didn't stop them from putting up solid numbers. Why should we make excuses for McCoy?

I think Maurile's assessment is pretty accurate. McCoy will be a dangerous player in the NFL, but his narrow skill set will probably relegate him to a situational role. I'm guessing that his NFL impact will be closer to Norwood/Washington/Charles/J. Harrison than Westbrook/Bush/M. Faulk/Slaton. If he goes to a team that explicitly says they're going to make him the starter then he's still a very interesting PPR prospect, otherwise he's probably going to land on my avoid list. No sense taking the gamble given the availability of other viable RBs and excellent WRs in the same general range of rookie drafts.

 
The problem with the "improvement" argument is that McCoy's numbers are still terrible compared to other underclassmen RBs at the same stage of their careers. Guys like Reggie Bush, Jonathan Stewart, Adrian Peterson, and Darren McFadden were also very young when they entered the draft and that didn't stop them from putting up solid numbers. Why should we make excuses for McCoy?

I think Maurile's assessment is pretty accurate. McCoy will be a dangerous player in the NFL, but his narrow skill set will probably relegate him to a situational role. I'm guessing that his NFL impact will be closer to Norwood/Washington/Charles/J. Harrison than Westbrook/Bush/M. Faulk/Slaton. If he goes to a team that explicitly says they're going to make him the starter then he's still a very interesting PPR prospect, otherwise he's probably going to land on my avoid list. No sense taking the gamble given the availability of other viable RBs and excellent WRs in the same general range of rookie drafts.
I don't think it's fair to pigeon hole Washington or Norwood just yet, and definitely not Charles. Washington and Norwood both look like they could be star RBs one day. We've only got one year with Charles, so we can't say much yet.And while Bush, etc. were the same age as McCoy, they were also at much better football programs. USC, OU are far ahead of Pitt.

I generally agree with you that these bad measurables are really bad signs. But I almost think they're so bad that they make me wonder how indicative they are.

 
When I saw this article, I thought it was particularly interesting.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2009032...T0201/903290376

Evaluating players for the NFL Draft is always tricky for pro teams as offensive schemes come and go in the college game.

In the 1970s and '80s, the option and the wishbone were in vogue; in the '90s, it was the run-and-shoot.

Now the spread offense - a high-powered attack used by teams such as the UC Bearcats - is the latest style to cause fits for NFL personnel directors.

This year's draft class features the greatest number of players who have spent their college careers in the spread.

"It has affected us in a number of ways," Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski said. "... It has made this year's evaluations a little harder. Some teams don't do anything traditional on offense, and that makes it harder to evaluate than, say, an Ohio State."

Last year, 31 of 65 schools in Bowl Championship Series conferences ran the spread as their primary offense, including UC. Ohio State, Kentucky and Louisville run some spread formations as part of their package.

The spread is a no-huddle approach that aims to, indeed, spread the field horizontally, using three-, four- or even five-receiver sets. In theory, the defense then is spread too thin, allowing for vertical seams up the field for the passing and running games to exploit.

"What's interesting is you can approach the spread in different ways," Colts president Bill Polian said during the NFL Scouting Combine. "You can approach the spread where you throw it the vast majority of the time; you can approach it where you run it 50-50 or maybe even a little more, the way Penn State does. (Joe Paterno's) in the spread, but he's still running the same running plays, which is great.

"Now, how that translates in the National Football League, on the one hand, the passing game from the shotgun you might say is the first cousin (of the spread). On the other, it's difficult to run a true, unadulterated spread with five receivers eligible all the time against the Steelers."

Some parts of the spread have taken root in the NFL through the Wildcat formation, in which the ball is snapped directly to a tailback, as popularized by the resurgent Miami Dolphins last season.

That's why versatile and speedy West Virginia quarterback Pat White all of a sudden has become a hot name on draft boards.

But can White - or the Wildcat - take root in the pro game, or is this just another flavor of the month?

"When evaluating players, it still comes down to their skill set and taking a lot of other things into consideration (such as the team's philosophy and what type of offense and defense it runs). There's still a lot of variables," said ESPN analyst Merril Hoge. "If a guy is fundamentally sound, you have a better shot of assessing his transition."

Lots of differences

A player's challenge in transitioning from the college spread to a pro offense is tied to his position.

For example, take the offensive line. In a pro-style offense, linemen use a mix of two-point (pass-blocking) and three-point (run-blocking) stances. But in the spread, linemen are farther apart and start in a two-point almost all the time.

That makes it difficult to evaluate how a tackle or guard can run-block.

"You have to watch a little more tape for an offensive tackle. Sometimes it takes the coaches going to a campus workout and putting our hands on them to see what type of strength they have," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said.

Baylor's Jason Smith is hoping to prove doubters wrong. The offensive tackle is projected by many to be the best lineman on the board, and he could be the top overall pick.

"There's a lot of technique involved. You don't just walk out there and hit somebody," Smith said. "But once you get your hands on a guy and grab him and squeeze him and slam him, or whatever goes on in the trenches, it's a great feeling.

"Football is football. Zone scheme, man scheme, power scheme - you come off the ball and hit the guy in front of you. And win games."

Spread tight ends might have a steeper learning curve because rarely do they line up on the line or do any blocking. While many are impressed with the receiving skills of Missouri's Chase Coffman, they do wonder if he can block.

"I haven't done it that much, but I think I'll get the hang of it real soon," Coffman said. "A lot of them have seen me on film doing open-field blocking and see that I can possibly transition well to being aggressive and blocking on the line of scrimmage."

The skill positions

While receivers have seen their stock rise due to the spread, there are some questions about whether they can overcome the learning curves associated with NFL playbooks.

Because spread routes are mainly about running to a spot and getting open, most receivers in the spread have not truly mastered their position. So coaches don't know if a player can do a curl or an out route. And because spread wideouts don't run long, developing routes, it's unclear whether they're able to get separation in man-to-man coverage.

An exception to that might be Texas Tech's Michael Crabtree, who has been graded by scouts as an effective route runner.

"The only thing I'll have to adjust to is probably blocking, which I've been working real hard on that since the end of last season," Crabtree said during the combine. "I had a good blocking season, so it shouldn't be a problem."

Running backs also present their share of questions. In the spread, they line up next to the quarterback and get the handoff across the face of the signal caller. In a pro set, they take it from the QB as he backs away from center.

Also in the spread, running backs benefit from having more and wider running lanes, which makes finding openings easier. In the NFL, backs are expected to read plays to find - and create - their own seams.

And then there are the quarterbacks. When Utah's Alex Smith was made the top pick by San Francisco in 2005, many thought he would be a new type of quarterback in the NFL. Instead, he has been a bust, having played in 32 games in four seasons, totaling 19 passing touchdowns and 31 interceptions.

"It's a big (learning) process because a lot of these players don't really huddle anymore," 49ers general manager Scott McCloughan said. "I'm not saying a guy can't come in right away and be successful, because I think for a young quarterback their success depends a lot on the personnel around them and the situation they're put into. But there is a learning curve, and it's a big curve."

During the Senior Bowl, two of the three quarterbacks on the North squad, including Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, were out of spread offenses. Practices for the North team, which was coached by the Bengals staff, frequently featured fumbles as quarterbacks used to standing in the shotgun acclimated to taking the snap from center.

Another issue with spread quarterbacks is that they often make their throws to a predetermined target, which means very rarely do they have to make reads on progressions. They're also not your typical physical build for an NFL quarterback. Whereas the average is 6 feet 3, 225 pounds, Missouri's Chase Daniel, who has run the spread since high school, is 6-0, 218.

"The Bengals said they were in the shotgun 80 percent of the time," Daniel, who threw for 12,515 career yards and 101 touchdowns, said during the combine. "Someone's not going to draft me that goes under center every single snap and doesn't go in the gun at all. But I'm excited about the chance to learn a new offense."

On the defensive

The spread evolution is not confined to offenses. As more teams try to stop it, colleges are recruiting smaller and quicker players, especially on the defensive line. That has led to a rise in defensive ends in college who can play linebacker in the NFL.

"Defensively, everyone is recruiting for speed," said Bengals radio analyst Dave Lapham. "They're spreading out and have more one-on-one matchups. ... You don't see too many 6-3, 285-pound pass-rush guys like (2006 top draft pick) Mario Williams anymore."

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said pro teams have to figure out exactly what the college spread trend means for the pro game - and soon.

"The NFL guys I talk to on a daily basis are getting frustrated," Mayock said. "And I'm like, 'It's too bad, guys, because that spread offense is not going away.' "

 
The best predictor of NFL success is, & always will be, performance on the field. Everything else is simply a tool to help tweek your final grade. That said, people tend to get caught up in the hype of the numbers game on occasion (in this case, downgrading McCoy too far because of his jumps). I still believe he'll be a 2nd round pick.

The vert & broad jumps, in & of themselves, are a small part of the overall picture. I'm not going to say where I have McCoy ranked, but he can be a productive NFL player. And depending on the situation, he's got the potential to be a good FF RB (especially in PPR leagues).

 
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When docking McCoy for the competition he faced, do not forget to do the same for D.Brown who's winter numbers seem to have helped him.

 
McCoy was the #1 player on my most recent PPR rookie rankings, but that was before his pro day. I had been operating under the assumption that he would test out of the ball park like you would have expected him to given his quicks and burst. BZZZT! Wrong. He was horrible. His jumps are the worst I can remember from a day one RB prospect. Now he has two major red flags against him: he's not very big and his workout numbers are pitiful. I still think game film is the most important factor, but there's enough risk here for me to bump him down several spots. He may be closer to Leon Washington than Brian Westbrook.
This is pretty interesting to me since I don't pay any attention to those measurables, but have McCoy as an absolutely don't draft player based on the #s I do generate.I think there's a 0.0% chance McCoy is a legitimate NFL starter and that he'll be a wasted pick for some NFL team.
I initially saw him as Westbrook/Bush/Faulk type of back who could thrive in a combo receiving/rushing role that played to his strengths. Now I'm wondering if he has the goods to earn that kind of opportunity in the NFL. I really expected him to be one of the workout warriors of this RB group. Now that he's bombed, I'm thinking he might just be a flashy change of pace back like Jamaal Charles. It will certainly be interesting to see how he fares at the next level. He doesn't have prototypical size and he doesn't have the freakish combine profile of other undersized RBs like Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush. Given the quality of the WR talent in this draft, I'll be looking elsewhere in my PPR leagues.
:blackdot: I was high on him before but I'm getting a strong feeling that he'll a Faulk-like career - Kevin Faulk. I still think he'll be a nice player in PPR and things might work out if he goes to the right team, but I'm not holding my breath for him as much more than a 3rd down/RBBC back. He's got great hands so I do think he'll stick around the league but I don't seem him as a major fantasy player.
 
I think Gosselin makes an excellent point about McCoy's vertical and I believe the film supports it to an extent. I think he's overrated compared to where some list him, but I still think he can develop into a quality starter. The thing that shows up on film is he needs to get stronger. Here's an excerpt from the 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio where I write why McCoy needs to add muscle.

At 5-10, 204 lbs., McCoy is big enough to play in the NFL, but I don’t think he’s muscular enough at this point to

excel. Adding muscle to his frame will serve three important purposes:

1. McCoy needs more bulk so he doesn’t wear down from the pounding. And he’ll have to take a

pounding if he expects to get more than 15 touches per game. This amount equates to a reasonable

“feature back” total of 240 attempts over the course of a season. He’ll need this weight to lessen the

severity of injury he might suffer without it.

2. McCoy will need to become a more powerful runner. McCoy’s game isn’t about running over

defenders, but he will need to become adept at learning when to take fewer risks at the line of scrimmage

lowering his shoulders into a small crease and pushing for whatever yardage he can get. In the NFL,

McCoy will need to know how to play situational football. This means knowing when going for the big play

is too high-risk for the down, distance, and quarter situation. If he lacks the ability to get two to three

yards by generating a push he’ll remain a situational player.

3. McCoy will need that muscle for greater explosion. McCoy is one of the most explosive backs in

college football, but he’s never been the fastest and he could actually become quicker. Adding muscle

mass to his core will not only protect him and make him stronger, but also make him more explosive. And

Reggie Bush, a back who had similar (and better) highlight reel runs in college than McCoy, can attest that

the NFL won’t be giving any back too many huge cutback lanes or opportunities for a runner to reverse his

field as frequently. NFL defenses are far more disciplined and athletic. McCoy is physically skilled, but even

Marshall Faulk, who was more advanced than McCoy entering the league, had to bulk up for the same

reasons mentioned here.

 
broncofan13000 said:
Jacobs had a 37" vert (not sure about Bettis or Jamal) ... size shouldn't have an impact on their vertical jump...
:mellow: height shouldn't, because of the way they measure... but weight should have an impact... much easier for a 200 pound guy to get 3 feet off the ground than a 250 pound guy
 

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