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Andre Johnson - HOFer or not? (1 Viewer)

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Since we are talking WRs and the Hall, what does everyone think of Andre Johnson's chances? Personally, I think he is gonna have a very tough time getting in.

Things working in his favor:

-Five 1,200-yard plus seasons.

-Led the league in receiving yards twice.

-Was 1st team All-Pro twice.

-Five top 5 finishes in receptions.

Things working against him:

-His lack of scoring - has NEVER scored double digit TDs in a season, and has only 61 touchdowns catches in 11 seasons.

-Playing in Houston. If he put up similar numbers in NY, Pittsburgh or Dallas, he'd be a shoe-in, but in Houston, not so much.

-The perception that he racked up a lot of yards on bad teams and in games where his team was always trailing.

 
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well on his way. I'd give him a "probably" now. 109 receptions for 1400 yards doesn't indicate the game has passed him by just yet.

 
well on his way. I'd give him a "probably" now. 109 receptions for 1400 yards doesn't indicate the game has passed him by just yet.
Agree. If he's stays relatively healthy he could rack up some pretty nice stats over the next few years.

 
-The perception that he racked up a lot of yards on bad teams and in games where his team was always trailing.
I don't think he is in the hall yet. But I also don't think this last criticism is particularly fair, either (though I realize you are just presenting the arguments one might offer against him). My memories of AJ are of him fighting off double teams on long sideline routes, not accumulating garbage time stats at the end of a game against soft coverage. I have nothing to back up that recollection, but I just don't recall garbage time being particularly applicable to AJ.

I will say this: he needs 3,300 yards to pass TO and become the No. 2 all time yardage leader (give or take Reggie Wayne's finish). And another 175 receptions over that three years also makes him No. 3 in all time receptions (give or take Reggie Wayne's finish). So, if he as three good years left in him, his chances improve significantly....so I agree with the above conclusion: probably.

 
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Not yet, but I think he becomes a shoe in since he'll likely have the most receiving yards of any WR in his generation (more than Marvin, TO and Moss).

ETA: I don't expect Wayne will be able to hold him off, but do expect Fitz will play long enough to have a real shot at passing Andre.

 
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David Carr, Tony Banks, Dave Ragone, Sage Rosenfels, MATT SCHAUB, Matt Leinart, TJ Yates, Case Keenum. I believe these are all the QBs Andre Johnson has caught passes from. Schaub being the best of this sorry bunch by far. Just something hopefully voters will keep in mind someday.

 
No.

Never had 10 TD's in a season despite all the modern pass friendly rules.

MANY better receivers are still waiting to get in.

Hall of Good = Yes.

Hall of Fame = No.

 
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I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Hypothetically, if the moon was made outa cheese, would ya eat it?

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Hypothetically, if the moon was made outa cheese, would ya eat it?
Nice job answering my question.
 
Assuming 2 or 3 more years of starter quality stats...heck yeah.

Dude's got terrific career numbers playing on some bad teams with terrible QBs.

 
Few #1 WRs are as dominant as he has been at times. It's not necessarily going to appear in numbers, but when he fights off three defenders for the ball you notice. When it happens on the very next play there is a wow feeling to it.

This is not a man that gets shut down by shut down CBs often.

I can remember the Titans having three pro bowl DBs and...didn't matter. I can remember Reed and Polamalu helping on him...didn't matter.

For a FBG reference, there are a whole lot of threads here where people affectionately call him a beast because of some grab.

He has a strength to his arms, a concentration, that when he's got the ball and is coming down with it-it doesn't often come out when it's hit. I've seen so many Titans get destroyed because they tried to slap at the ball in his hands. If it doesn't work, that's a dopey thing for a DB to do and he's running well past them. For a second though there's a man-young boy feeling like on a playground. Slap, ha didn't do a thing.

There have been times the Texans were terrible and he made it where they might beat a team anyway. You have to appreciate that their line was terrible at times (with some worst of type sack stats) and even with less time to get open, he did very very well.

 
As I posted in the Steve Smith HOF? thread, the issue is there are SO MANY good receivers that played over the past 10 years (or the current era) that it is hard to imagine that they all get inducted.

Here was the list I posted in the other thread . . .

Terrell Owens

Randy Moss

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Reggie Wayne

Torry Holt

Reggie Wayne

Hines Ward

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin Johnson

And besides Andre, that does not include guys Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall (who I would say are too soon to tell). This group all played at roughly the same time (and if not, close to it).

So from that list, who do you leave out to induct Andre Johnson?

 
As I posted in the Steve Smith HOF? thread, the issue is there are SO MANY good receivers that played over the past 10 years (or the current era) that it is hard to imagine that they all get inducted.

Here was the list I posted in the other thread . . .

Terrell Owens

Randy Moss

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Reggie Wayne

Torry Holt

Reggie Wayne

Hines Ward

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin Johnson

And besides Andre, that does not include guys Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall (who I would say are too soon to tell). This group all played at roughly the same time (and if not, close to it).

So from that list, who do you leave out to induct Andre Johnson?
Hines Ward

I also think Fitz is TBD at this point.

 
Sort of hard to imagine that Johnson retires 2nd on the all-time receiving yards list (behind only Rice) and doesn't make it in. And he's got a great shot at that.

 
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Living in Houston and seeing most of the Texans games, Andre Johnson definitely passes the sight test on being in the Hall of fame. Numbers wise his TD numbers suffer from having David Carr and Matt Schaub throwing to him. Schaub is a decent enough QB, but he waits too long to release on deep throws which turns 70 yard TD's into 50 yard gains. He also avoids throwing into tight coverage. Johnson had 5 TD's in 2 games this season because Keenum wasn't afraid to throw it to him when he was covered one-on-one. Defenses then took that option away from Keenum.

Johnson also suffers from never having a decent number 2 WR to take some coverage away from him. From the list above, Moss had Cris Carter, Holt and Bruce had each other, Harrison and Wayne had each other, and Fitzgerald had Boldin.

Johnson has already passed Michael Irvin in All-Pro selections, Pro Bowl Selections and receiving yards. He should pass him in TD catches this season (Irving 65 Johnson 61). Michael Irvin is in the hall of fame.

 
David Carr, Tony Banks, Dave Ragone, Sage Rosenfels, MATT SCHAUB, Matt Leinart, TJ Yates, Case Keenum. I believe these are all the QBs Andre Johnson has caught passes from. Schaub being the best of this sorry bunch by far. Just something hopefully voters will keep in mind someday.
That's criminal. Would love to have seen just one year of Andre Johnson with a QB of the caliber of Brees, Manning, Brady or Rodgers.

 
People always bring up Irvin as a barometer to judge others and I think that's a poor decision.

Number 1-Irvin was the vocal leader of 3 Super Bowl winning teams .

Number 2- he retired due to injury so he be benefits from "what coulda been ".

Number 3- He put up good number in a supremely lopsided running offense.

 
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People always bring up Irvin as a barometer to judge others and I think that's a poor decision.

Number 1-Irvin was the vocal leader of 3 Super Bowl winning teams .

Number 2- he retired due to injury so he be benefits from "what coulda been ".

Number 3- He put up good number in a supremely lopsided running offense.
Fair points. I brought up Irvin mostly due to his low TD numbers as a comparison. If Andre plays another 2 or 3 full seasons his numbers will be significantly greater than Irvins.

Irvin also benefitted from playing with 3 other HOFers on offense, as well as having a top level coach (Johnson, not Switzer). Johnson played with......and was coached by...... I got nothing.

 
Johnson is a pretty good reason why just looking at numbers is a poor way to evaluate who makes the HOF.

They don't call it the hall of stats.

Put the guy with a good qb for a decade and he is a unanimous inductee.

It really is disgusting how well he has done given the turds throwing to him.

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Who said that?

If AJ had averaged 9 touchdowns a season, then maybe I'd see your point, but he has averaged 5.5 touchdowns per season over his entire career. For a stud WR who has always started, that is pretty poor.

 
Since we are talking WRs and the Hall, what does everyone think of Andre Johnson's chances? Personally, I think he is gonna have a very tough time getting in.

Things working in his favor:

-Five 1,200-yard plus seasons.

-Led the league in receiving yards twice.

-Was 1st team All-Pro twice.

-Five top 5 finishes in receptions.

Things working against him:

-His lack of scoring - has NEVER scored double digit TDs in a season, and has only 61 touchdowns catches in 11 seasons.

-Playing in Houston. If he put up similar numbers in NY, Pittsburgh or Dallas, he'd be a shoe-in, but in Houston, not so much.

-The perception that he racked up a lot of yards on bad teams and in games where his team was always trailing.
[SIZE=9pt]NY doesn’t seem to have an extraordinary amount of pull when it comes to the hall of fame [/SIZE]

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Who said that?

If AJ had averaged 9 touchdowns a season, then maybe I'd see your point, but he has averaged 5.5 touchdowns per season over his entire career. For a stud WR who has always started, that is pretty poor.
I agree that is a pretty poor average. I would love to see a statistic of how many times he has been thrown to in the end zone vs. other contemporaries. As I stated before, Schaub perpetually underthrew him so deep balls where he was wide open were not TD's because he had to wait for them, and whether it was Schaub or Kubiak, the Texans threw very little fade pattern jump balls to Andre in the red zone. The guy has great hands and has dropped very few passes over his career, usually only when he is double and triple teamed.

 
One other thought: Playing for the Texans may actually help his chances as they currently have no one in the hall of fame and there are no other candidates (JJ Watt has most of his career to play so I don't consider him a candidate yet).

 
Sort of hard to imagine that Johnson retires 2nd on the all-time receiving yards list (behind only Rice) and doesn't make it in. And he's got a great shot at that.
Tim Brown was #2 when he retired. He's now #6 and has waited five years. He's not going to get in before Harrison. Isaac Bruce is ahead of him in yardage and comes up this year, along with Torry Holt. TO comes up the year after that. Randy Moss two years after that.

Even if Johnson finishes #2 in total yardage, he can expect to get passed by Fitzgerald, Megatron, and Brandon Marshall before he's eligible. He has a better case than Tim Brown, but given the logjam at receiver, he may need to have at least one more major accolade to get there; a big TD year, another year leading the league in receiving, or a Super Bowl run.

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Who said that?

If AJ had averaged 9 touchdowns a season, then maybe I'd see your point, but he has averaged 5.5 touchdowns per season over his entire career. For a stud WR who has always started, that is pretty poor.
So you are saying for AJ to get into the HOF he needed to be superhuman and score 9-10 TDs a year with tweedle dee and tweedle dum throwing to him?

They would need to create a special kind of HOF just for a few players in history if Andre could get the yards, catches, and TDs of some of the current HOF WRs who had great QBs.

 
As I posted in the Steve Smith HOF? thread, the issue is there are SO MANY good receivers that played over the past 10 years (or the current era) that it is hard to imagine that they all get inducted.

Here was the list I posted in the other thread . . .

Terrell Owens

Randy Moss

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Reggie Wayne

Torry Holt

Reggie Wayne

Hines Ward

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin Johnson

And besides Andre, that does not include guys Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall (who I would say are too soon to tell). This group all played at roughly the same time (and if not, close to it).

So from that list, who do you leave out to induct Andre Johnson?
owens, moss, harrison and calvin are the only ones obv better than andre. fitz and andre are close. id put him a tad above holt and clearly, easily, better than the rest.

 
Sort of hard to imagine that Johnson retires 2nd on the all-time receiving yards list (behind only Rice) and doesn't make it in. And he's got a great shot at that.
Tim Brown was #2 when he retired. He's now #6 and has waited five years. He's not going to get in before Harrison. Isaac Bruce is ahead of him in yardage and comes up this year, along with Torry Holt. TO comes up the year after that. Randy Moss two years after that.

Even if Johnson finishes #2 in total yardage, he can expect to get passed by Fitzgerald, Megatron, and Brandon Marshall before he's eligible. He has a better case than Tim Brown, but given the logjam at receiver, he may need to have at least one more major accolade to get there; a big TD year, another year leading the league in receiving, or a Super Bowl run.
highly doubt marshall surpasses him. marshall is 28 with 9,050. andre is 31 with 12661. fitz is no lock either, at 29 and 11367.

ofc, andre is far from a sure thing to rise up to number 2 on the list, or even top 5. its all about how these guys age, and who they get at qb. plenty of receivers have just fallen off a cliff at these ages. or guys like fitz, and andre, have left a ton of yards on the field playing with clowns at qb. if they are fortunate enough to get paired with an good qb and proper coaching while some tread is left, they can bang out 4-5k yards easily.

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Who said that?

If AJ had averaged 9 touchdowns a season, then maybe I'd see your point, but he has averaged 5.5 touchdowns per season over his entire career. For a stud WR who has always started, that is pretty poor.
So you are saying for AJ to get into the HOF he needed to be superhuman and score 9-10 TDs a year with tweedle dee and tweedle dum throwing to him?
I never said that.

 
cvnpoka said:
CalBear said:
wdcrob said:
Sort of hard to imagine that Johnson retires 2nd on the all-time receiving yards list (behind only Rice) and doesn't make it in. And he's got a great shot at that.
Tim Brown was #2 when he retired. He's now #6 and has waited five years. He's not going to get in before Harrison. Isaac Bruce is ahead of him in yardage and comes up this year, along with Torry Holt. TO comes up the year after that. Randy Moss two years after that.

Even if Johnson finishes #2 in total yardage, he can expect to get passed by Fitzgerald, Megatron, and Brandon Marshall before he's eligible. He has a better case than Tim Brown, but given the logjam at receiver, he may need to have at least one more major accolade to get there; a big TD year, another year leading the league in receiving, or a Super Bowl run.
highly doubt marshall surpasses him. marshall is 28 with 9,050. andre is 31 with 12661. fitz is no lock either, at 29 and 11367.

ofc, andre is far from a sure thing to rise up to number 2 on the list, or even top 5. its all about how these guys age, and who they get at qb. plenty of receivers have just fallen off a cliff at these ages. or guys like fitz, and andre, have left a ton of yards on the field playing with clowns at qb. if they are fortunate enough to get paired with an good qb and proper coaching while some tread is left, they can bang out 4-5k yards easily.
I think you might be off about Fitz. Andre at 32 has amassed 927-12661-61. Fitz at 30 has totaled 846-11367-87. Add in two more year for Fitz and at the same age as AJ is now, he could have an 80-700-40 advantage.

 
cvnpoka said:
CalBear said:
wdcrob said:
Sort of hard to imagine that Johnson retires 2nd on the all-time receiving yards list (behind only Rice) and doesn't make it in. And he's got a great shot at that.
Tim Brown was #2 when he retired. He's now #6 and has waited five years. He's not going to get in before Harrison. Isaac Bruce is ahead of him in yardage and comes up this year, along with Torry Holt. TO comes up the year after that. Randy Moss two years after that.

Even if Johnson finishes #2 in total yardage, he can expect to get passed by Fitzgerald, Megatron, and Brandon Marshall before he's eligible. He has a better case than Tim Brown, but given the logjam at receiver, he may need to have at least one more major accolade to get there; a big TD year, another year leading the league in receiving, or a Super Bowl run.
highly doubt marshall surpasses him. marshall is 28 with 9,050. andre is 31 with 12661. fitz is no lock either, at 29 and 11367.

ofc, andre is far from a sure thing to rise up to number 2 on the list, or even top 5. its all about how these guys age, and who they get at qb. plenty of receivers have just fallen off a cliff at these ages. or guys like fitz, and andre, have left a ton of yards on the field playing with clowns at qb. if they are fortunate enough to get paired with an good qb and proper coaching while some tread is left, they can bang out 4-5k yards easily.
Marshall's averaged 1400 yards in his two years in Chicago. He only needs 1200 a year to pass Andre at 31.

Fitz is a lock unless he's hurt. He needs less than 700 yards a year to do it.

Assuming their career arcs follow what they've done so far, both will end up ahead of Johnson. As you note, that's a big assumption; in the real world it's unlikely that all three pass TO. But if you make the assumption that Johnson will end up #2, you pretty much have to make the assumption that Fitzgerald and Marshall will pass him.

 
cvnpoka said:
As I posted in the Steve Smith HOF? thread, the issue is there are SO MANY good receivers that played over the past 10 years (or the current era) that it is hard to imagine that they all get inducted.

Here was the list I posted in the other thread . . .

Terrell Owens

Randy Moss

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Reggie Wayne

Torry Holt

Reggie Wayne

Hines Ward

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin Johnson

And besides Andre, that does not include guys Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall (who I would say are too soon to tell). This group all played at roughly the same time (and if not, close to it).

So from that list, who do you leave out to induct Andre Johnson?
owens, moss, harrison and calvin are the only ones obv better than andre. fitz and andre are close. id put him a tad above holt and clearly, easily, better than the rest.
What will help AJ is

-His total numbers are going to be up there.

-As time goes by, he will be looked at each year based on the resume and people are going to start drilling into it and seeing that he will end up with similar numbers to guys on this list buthe played with WAY worse QBs and way worse teams and he will eventually get in somewhere in that 4th-8th year of eligibilty.

Every single guy on that list except Calvin had a HOF or "perhaps HOF" Qb throwing to him as one time. AJ had Schaub as the clear and best passer. That will get voters' attentions down the line.

 
cvnpoka said:
As I posted in the Steve Smith HOF? thread, the issue is there are SO MANY good receivers that played over the past 10 years (or the current era) that it is hard to imagine that they all get inducted.

Here was the list I posted in the other thread . . .

Terrell Owens

Randy Moss

Isaac Bruce

Tim Brown

Marvin Harrison

Reggie Wayne

Torry Holt

Reggie Wayne

Hines Ward

Larry Fitzgerald

Calvin Johnson

And besides Andre, that does not include guys Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall (who I would say are too soon to tell). This group all played at roughly the same time (and if not, close to it).

So from that list, who do you leave out to induct Andre Johnson?
owens, moss, harrison and calvin are the only ones obv better than andre. fitz and andre are close. id put him a tad above holt and clearly, easily, better than the rest.
What will help AJ is

-His total numbers are going to be up there.

-As time goes by, he will be looked at each year based on the resume and people are going to start drilling into it and seeing that he will end up with similar numbers to guys on this list buthe played with WAY worse QBs and way worse teams and he will eventually get in somewhere in that 4th-8th year of eligibilty.

Every single guy on that list except Calvin had a HOF or "perhaps HOF" Qb throwing to him as one time. AJ had Schaub as the clear and best passer. That will get voters' attentions down the line.
Where I think this logic may be off is look at which guys HAVE been inducted. The prototypical HOF WR has had the HOF QB throwing them the ball on predominantly winning teams and has won or gone to multiple SBs. How many guys have made it with lackluster QBs on mostly losing teams and no SB appearances? The bottom line is guys on SB winners seemed to have gotten preference.

 
Eh, right now I'd say no. Needs a few more years of high production. He's the poster child for "If I only had a good QB throwing the ball to me......."

 
As a basis for comparison, here is where AJ ranks for receiving yards through age 32.

Randy Moss 14465

Jerry Rice 13275

Andre Johnson 12661

Torry Holt 12660

Isaac Bruce 11753

However, Fitz ranks #2 on the most receiving yards through age 30 list, Megatron ranks 4th in terms of receiving yards through age 29, and Brandon Marshall also ranks 7th in terms of receiving yards through age 29. As far as younger guys, surprisingly Hakeem Nicks ranks 4th for most receiving yards through age 25. Unfortunately for Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin, they ranked 5th and 8th for WR through age 24 but both had lost seasons this year. Josh Gordon and Julio Jones (who also lost this year) ranked 8th and 9th on the 23 year old list.

 
I don't understand the TD thing. Hypothetically, if a wideout averaged 90 catches for 1175 yards a season and was a 8-time first team All-Pro and had exactly 9 touchdowns every season for 13 years, he would not be a Hall of Famer in your opinion?
Who said that?

If AJ had averaged 9 touchdowns a season, then maybe I'd see your point, but he has averaged 5.5 touchdowns per season over his entire career. For a stud WR who has always started, that is pretty poor.
Who said that? Go back and look at the garbage post to which I responded.
 
As a basis for comparison, here is where AJ ranks for receiving yards through age 32.

Randy Moss 14465

Jerry Rice 13275

Andre Johnson 12661

Torry Holt 12660

Isaac Bruce 11753

However, Fitz ranks #2 on the most receiving yards through age 30 list, Megatron ranks 4th in terms of receiving yards through age 29, and Brandon Marshall also ranks 7th in terms of receiving yards through age 29. As far as younger guys, surprisingly Hakeem Nicks ranks 4th for most receiving yards through age 25. Unfortunately for Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin, they ranked 5th and 8th for WR through age 24 but both had lost seasons this year. Josh Gordon and Julio Jones (who also lost this year) ranked 8th and 9th on the 23 year old list.
Yeah he has a much better chance at the Hall of Stats.

 
As a basis for comparison, here is where AJ ranks for receiving yards through age 32.

Randy Moss 14465

Jerry Rice 13275

Andre Johnson 12661

Torry Holt 12660

Isaac Bruce 11753

However, Fitz ranks #2 on the most receiving yards through age 30 list, Megatron ranks 4th in terms of receiving yards through age 29, and Brandon Marshall also ranks 7th in terms of receiving yards through age 29. As far as younger guys, surprisingly Hakeem Nicks ranks 4th for most receiving yards through age 25. Unfortunately for Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin, they ranked 5th and 8th for WR through age 24 but both had lost seasons this year. Josh Gordon and Julio Jones (who also lost this year) ranked 8th and 9th on the 23 year old list.
He's the only one on your 5 list that isn't part of a famous offense.

I think Fitz (aside from Warner years) is similar. Calvin too.

Remember Marshall in Miami? 1000ish yards, TDs went way down.

Not every WR can get it done on a bad team.

 

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