TheAssassin
Footballguy
I dropped him after looking at his schedule, other than TEN, not a startable game in the bunch.
JAC @CIN @HOU PIT BYE TEN @JAC @BUF DEN @BAL
JAC @CIN @HOU PIT BYE TEN @JAC @BUF DEN @BAL
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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Agree -- what did the Colts have to gain by giving crystal clarity to the other teams in the league about how and when to start planning for Luck? And it's just as likely that the staff is as anxious as the fans are to get Luck out there to win games, and just as likely that with an injury to Luck's throwing shoulder, there could potentially be setbacks -- if you announce a clear deadline, you are only exacerbating focus on whatever timeline you've announced. Staying mum is frustrating, but it could be that there was no clear timeline and it depended upon how Luck responded in healing and getting back to throwing.
That said? May be dropping this guy before the weekend starts to pick up depth in other areas. I am doubtful that with 6 potential games left before the fantasy playoffs, Luck is going to be a factor for teams getting to the playoffs.
Is Dalton really a better option going forward that Siemian, Trubisky, Flacco, McCown level of players? Is Brissett?
It's a bummer for sure. I wrote this afternoon that I don't think we see him on the playing field this year. The bigger worry I think is if this is something to be worried about for 2018 and beyond. I think it might be.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Thanks for those thoughts, Joe -- pretty much sums up the tone in here for this season.
I wasn't even thinking about the effect past this year...until now.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Agreed. The "setback" may be more than what they let on. Sadly we probably will not know the actual truth until next year. I feel bad for Colt fans.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Oh they absolutely lied to the fanbase, Jim Irsay is a piece of crap.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Out of curiosity does Dr. Bramel have any speculation on what really might be going on?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
This is schtick, right? They hoped he would be back in time to play before week 6, and the 53rd man they would add to the roster if they put him on PUP isn't going to matter as much as getting him back early, if that's possible.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Dropped in short bench. Only have Rivers Yikes.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I don’t get this logic. If there is even a 10% chance he’s ready by week 4 why would you ir him? Imagine how people would lambaste the team if they said he was healthy enough to play but they ir’d him so he had to sit. The roster spot isn’t as important as some make it out to be.
Now obviously they were pretty sure he’d be out for a while and Irsay was running his mouth like he’d play week 1 but he’s pretty much a ######ed drug addict.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
dont want to say I told you so ,but a few posters and I've been saying this since week 1. not nostradamus.not a fortune teller. people weren't seeing the forest through the trees.
now more than ever it makes no sense to bring Luck back at all in '17. reports are sooo damn vauge about his condition it leads one to believe that the Colts are full of $hit with regards to Luck thats i t's almost as if they didn't want to say he's out for '17 because they feared revenue loss or something, but that's exactly what appears to have happened.
such bad coaching such as bad front office, lousy ownership...no,t's NOT the time to trade for him, it's not the time to think he'l be a savior the 2nd half of the fantasy season.his goose is cooked for 2017.
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
*slams money down on the counter*
"I'm out."
"I'm out."
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
They’re 2-4. Seems pointless to bring him back late in the season and risk reinjury.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Was coming here to post this verbatim. Well, I would have opted for a semicolon but my point remains the same!
habsfan
Footballguy
We're all familiar with the logic of shutting someone down but how often does it really happen in a scenario where there's a tough call to make? I have no idea if he can or will play this year but if he gets to a point where he could play, is it really consistent with football culture to hold him out?
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
They'll likely want to see him on the field mid to late December so they know what they have and how comfortable going into next season. That's the likely outcome from what I read on twitter by Dr. David Chao on twitter. If he's coming back Week 13-14 you aren't starting him in the FF playoffs unless total desperation.
Also have to wonder how the different incentives for Pagano/Ballard play into this. Ballard is in his first year of a rebuilding project, so keeping Luck healthy long-term is of paramount importance to him. Pagano may need a late-season rally to save his job. These kinds of things can affect decision-making at the margins.
habsfan
Footballguy
Again no idea if this is feasible or not. I'm just saying it wouldn't be a good look for the team or for Luck as a leader if he's capable of playing at some point but isn't playing. Everyone on that team is hurt in some way, shape or form and they're all out there competing - some for jobs. If I were Luck and I could be out there with them, I would be.
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Insoxicated
I caught some flack for posting this back in August, but I stand by the look into the "return to sports" levels of pitchers who had similar injuries.
Note the red above. I think we may see Luck as an effective NFL caliber QB next season.... possibly improving gradually. I'm quite skeptical Luck will ever be an elite QB again. I hope I'm wrong.
IMO anyone hoping for Luck to be Luck again anytime soon is far bolder than I.
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Interesting. I do think there's a big difference between a pitcher and a QB in terms of the stress they put on their arms. Throwing a baseball is an incredibly violent, unnatural motion, and as many times as QBs throw in the course of a practice/game, a pitcher throws a lot more.
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Insoxicated
I think that's a not uncommon perception, but it is actually not at all true. I'll quote this Wired article on Tom House, a throwing biomechanics expert (who's client list includes 20+ NFL QB's including Tom Brady and Drew Brees) where he addresses that very topic:
So...we have a throwing motion that's nearly identical from a biomechanics/kinetic standpoint. We have similar injuries to the throwing shoulder. Logic would dictate that recovery timelines and success rates would be comparable.
I will concede that the margin for error is tighter in baseball vs the NFL. A very fast NFL passer will throw around 60mph. There is a very high correlation to success in MLB with regards to being in the mid to upper 90s. I think most pitchers who lose 5-10mph off their fastball are screwed, whereas an NFL QB losing 5-7mph off their pass speed isn't quite as critical. This COULD be a factor in the "Return to sport" study above, but I think the overall comparison remains quite intact.
IMO I think the baseball shoulder injury studies are something to keep in mind when evaluating similar shoulder injuries in NFL passers. For this reason I'm very bearish on Luck and would NOT be attempting to "buy low".
I'd love @Jene Bramel's thoughts here.
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
forgive me if I'm mistaken, Didn't Drew Brees have a very similar surgery then went to the Saints and did quite well? 4700 yards the season after?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Schtick? Have you already forgotten how they handled the secrecy around the Manning injury and it's seriousness? I dont remember if it was Waldman or Harstad, but one of them was tweeting about it. There are certainly parallels, and we probably should have known Luck's season was in jeopardy when they dealt for Brissett suddenly after an off-season with #### backup QBs.Hankmoody said:
They would have been better off not making that trade because they would have a better draft choice after finishing 0-16. I know it is early and but I don't think Brissett is going to be a top tier QB ever. IMHO he will be a low level starter or a great backup QB. I don't think they knew the extent of Luck's injury but their team is not that talented and only LUck's great play makes them a playoff contender
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Insoxicated
These type of injuries are certainly not a black and white issue. There are wide variances in anatomy, extent/location of injury, surgery success, healing ability, rehab, etc. These variables all likely have significant impact on the athlete's ability to return to sport.
Brees was an exception to the rule on the positive side, with Dr Andrews calling him "The most remarkable comeback that I've ever treated." Andrews went on to say "Usually, the only results I remember are the bad ones. I just think on the players who don't have that kind of comeback." and "some way, some how, he got well"
This sort of language from a reknowned surgeon like Andrews emotes pretty clearly that that sort of return is an anomaly.
On the other side of the coin, we've had Luck who not only played with the injury for an extended timeline, but after surgery he has faced an ongoing series of setbacks and soreness. IMO comparing Brees to Luck doesn't seem fair. Luck seems to be trending toward the "bad end" of the recovery spectrum, while Brees was a freak example of the extreme "good end" of the recovering spectrum.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It seems like a major stretch to try and compare the two when the outcomes are so different. Namely that arm problems are so incredibly common in pitchers and so incredibly rare in QBs. If throwing a football was anywhere near as stressful as pitching then why aren't we constantly seeing QBs with season ending Tommy John surgery like is so common in baseball? Heck, we have practically 0 examples of it in football.
A pitcher is going out there and throwing the ball 80+ mph 100 times in a single night. QBs are going out there and throwing it that hard 0 times. Even their peak velocity doesn't account for most of their throws. They may be throwing it 40+ mph a small handful of times in a game, barely akin to a bullpen warmup for a pitcher.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Well they aren't going to release medical records about it. It's an injury, those are unpredictable. Some sprained ankles the guy is back out the next week and some guys miss 2 weeks. Hamstrings can wreck a season or some low-key rookie can play after 5 weeks and totally dominate. I see uncertainty mixed with optimism with what the Colts did. As a professional franchise, it's a far bigger crime to put the guy on reserve and maybe miss opportunities to play him if he's ready early than it is to keep your options open and maybe not be able to leverage the gambit. It was well said above - if there's a 10% chance he can play prior to week 7 you take that change. And can you imagine the storm that would be flying if Luck were fully ready to go after week 5 but he couldn't play? At 2-3 with a division lead on the line, you can't play him because you wanted to keep some 53rd guy active for 6 weeks?
You're using reactionary logic with the benefit of hindsight. Brissette may not have been available until that date. They got him on final cuts day, we don't know if that trade was available before that, they were probably making sure they got their own guys through the preseason healthy first. If IND were 4-1 and Luck was coming off PUP this week you'd say this was a great get to keep the spot warm for Luck while he healed up.
Luck has been throwing for a couple of weeks. If this injury was a certainty to be worse as you postulate it wouldn't have gotten to that point. He had a setback, that's all.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
The rest of the division is 3-3 so they're not out of it by any means. I'm not saying they'll still be close late in the season but no one is taking this division right now.
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Insoxicated
I'm merely quoting experts. You are certainly welcome to put your opinion against one of the premier throwing motion biomechanics specialists in the nation, if you'd like. However if he says the basic throwing motion is the same, I'm going to discount your opinion and take him at his word.
Nobody's doubting that MLB players throw peak velocity more frequently... which I addressed in the very post you quoted. After talking to a buddy who's a pitcher (drafted by the Braves, who then needed TJ surgery)... he attributes the difference in TJ as a combination of overthrowing (scouts telling kids you have no chance unless you're in the 90s), and the increase of fast breaking pitches like the slider (which is thrown harder, generally). Very Good analysis here.
TLDR: The presence of overthrowing/fast breaking-ball is more of a stress on the elbow area than the shoulder... which accounts for the higher presence of those injuries in MLB vs QBs.... whereas evidence shows the primary overall throwing motion is very close, thus seeing similar shoulder injuries.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So if a football "expert" contends that the Cleveland Browns have been as good as the New England Patriots over the last 15 years are we to take him at his word when we have results that point to something very different?
Career ending arm injuries in the MLB outnumber career ending arm injuries in the NFL by a score of something like a thousand to zero. Obviously there is a massive difference in how much each stresses the arm. If 22% of pitchers that have this surgery can never throw a 90mph fastball or 80mph breaking ball again, how relevant is that to throwing a football? Given the numbers, not very would be my guess.
Obviously I am far from any kind of expert in this matter and I'm not discounting the possibility that Luck is never the same again, but it seems like a very dubious comparison to baseball when put in context.
FWIW in my own anecdotal (and likely not very useful) experience, I grew up a baseball player with arm issues that was advised to switch to football (quarterback) because of my arm (though to be fair my elbow, not shoulder), and I wasn't even a pitcher. Obviously at the level I was playing I wasn't exactly getting advice from Dr James Andrews, but a data point none the less.
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Insoxicated
Sorry @FreeBaGeL, but the fact that you put one of the preeminent throwing mechanics experts in quotes, while you're throwing out made up numbers and anecdotal evidence says everything I need to know about your stance.
I've laid out scientific studies and expert opinion the best I can. Agree to disageee. Sorry about your elbow. I agree 100% there is substantially less stress on the elbow in football than in baseball.
I've laid out scientific studies and expert opinion the best I can. Agree to disageee. Sorry about your elbow. I agree 100% there is substantially less stress on the elbow in football than in baseball.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
You know what medical studies tend to use? Real doctors who look at the actual patients and their histories.Sorry @FreeBaGeL, but the fact that you put one of the preeminent throwing mechanics experts in quotes, while you're throwing out made up numbers and anecdotal evidence says everything I need to know about your stance.
I've laid out scientific studies and expert opinion the best I can. Agree to disageee. Sorry about your elbow. I agree 100% there is substantially less stress on the elbow in football than in baseball.
But yeah the sky is falling, there’s no puppies left and Luck is going to retire.
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Insoxicated
The studies I quoted were actual Medical studies by doctors in a sport with a highly similar core throwing motion. The throwing analysis was legit 3D analysis utilized by many MLB teams, an increasing number of NFL teams, and this guy lists several of the biggest names in the sport as his clients. Are you seriously doubting his analysis?
And while I appreciate knee jerk hyperbole when reacting to an opinion that conflicts with your world view... I never said Luck was never going to play again. Way back in August I expressed skepticism on his return timeline based on a legitimate study. Turns out I was right to do so.
These ongoing issues reenforce my viewpoint that people should exercise caution when trusting timelines on this injury, and also that folks should temper expectations on performance when/if he does return... as rotator cuff injuries in other throwing sports frequently involve year+ long windows to get back near old performance levels... and for some, they never get back there.
ILL TELL YA WHAT: I hope I'm wrong, as luck is a good kid and a talented athlete... and I STRONGLY encourage everyone to bump this post and say "TOLD YA SO" if luck comes back and posts his usual stud QB numbers down the stretch or even over the course of next year. By all means!
Im personally not buying until at least 2019... if then.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Let me know when Lucks doctor joins in the thread, he has some facts, not wild guesses that are treated as proof. You don’t know what was done, how much damage there was, etc, etc. Totally guessing like all of us.
We all have an opinion. Some people just can’t see it’s an opinion.
We all have an opinion. Some people just can’t see it’s an opinion.
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Insoxicated
Aptly named poster if there ever was one.
Where have I made any concrete claims of what would happen? Pretty sure I referenced studies then used a lot of words like maybe/risky/unlikely/bearish... those words were chosen intentionally.
If I ever gave the impression I was saying Luck was done or had no chance of returning to form, that wasn't intentional. Clarifying.. based on experts/studies I've read... my OPINION is I feel strongly that is unlikely anytime soon. Thus far I'm glad I had that opinion in August.
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For the record, I always appreciate it when posters like you bring in outside information that I might not have been aware of. That's exactly why I'm active on this message board -- no one else can make my decisions for me, but if I can better inform myself, I can feel more confident in the decisions I do make.[icon] said:The studies I quoted were actual Medical studies by doctors in a sport with a highly similar core throwing motion. The throwing analysis was legit 3D analysis utilized by many MLB teams, an increasing number of NFL teams, and this guy lists several of the biggest names in the sport as his clients. Are you seriously doubting his analysis?
And while I appreciate knee jerk hyperbole when reacting to an opinion that conflicts with your world view... I never said Luck was never going to play again. Way back in August I expressed skepticism on his return timeline based on a legitimate study. Turns out I was right to do so.
These ongoing issues reenforce my viewpoint that people should exercise caution when trusting timelines on this injury, and also that folks should temper expectations on performance when/if he does return... as rotator cuff injuries in other throwing sports frequently involve year+ long windows to get back near old performance levels... and for some, they never get back there.
ILL TELL YA WHAT: I hope I'm wrong, as luck is a good kid and a talented athlete... and I STRONGLY encourage everyone to bump this post and say "TOLD YA SO" if luck comes back and posts his usual stud QB numbers down the stretch or even over the course of next year. By all means!
Im personally not buying until at least 2019... if then.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Not that you care but for context. I'm currently in trade negotiations involving Luck in dynasty.
I'd be trading Luck and CJ Anderson for Stafford and a 2019 first (projected non playoff team)
I'd be trading Luck and CJ Anderson for Stafford and a 2019 first (projected non playoff team)
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Please get out of indy
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Insoxicated
Appreciate the kind words. I found the parallels interesting and wanted to share. I do hope he bounces back quicker than I anticipate because he's an incredible talent and really fun to watch in action.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Count me in the camp as not being concerned about MLB pitchers' success or non-success rate returning. Those guys throw all-out, all the time. 2% loss in velocity is the difference between being unhittable and being average, and 5% loss is death for those guys. QB's can get by on a ton more physical decline than that - just ask Peyton Manning. Most of the elite QB's in the game never throw all-out, their game is a lot more about placement and timing than anything. I'd need to see a lot more detail in type of decline to take the study into account. Did they measure velocity pre- and post- injury? Accuracy? Ability to read the defense and see who's covering wh... oh, nevermind that one.
xrayveggin
Footballguy
Having had a complicated post op course for labral repair, and knowing the ups and downs of pain and soreness during rehab, I'm not super concerned about a cortisone shot for a little bit of soreness and 3-5 days of arm rest. My biggest concern is that he is being handled too conservatively by the medical staff, that any little symptom that's a normal part of muscle training is being treated as a setback. But I'm continuing to hold for now.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Good luck with that. I honestly mean that, not being snarky. Wish I had the patience and in a place where I could ride this out as I think the opinion - as antithetical to the current vibe it is - that Luck can comeback this season is still valid. We can talk about the varying probabilities but it is as valid to say getting a cortisone shot and backed off from throwing for a few days as it is to say he’s done for the season.
We’ll know when we know. It’s the speculative decisions we need to make in the meantime that make this hobby interesting.
xrayveggin
Footballguy
I think we agree... that "a cortisone shot and a few days rest" doesn't mean his season is over. we have so little information, in fact, that it is hard to come to any reasonable conclusion of his probability of returning this season.
