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Andrew Miller > Part Deux... (1 Viewer)

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Insoxicated
A Major League source told the Globe tonight that the Red Sox are working on a plan to add Class AAA Pawtucket lefthander Andrew Miller to the rotation.

Miller has a clause in his minor-league contract that would allow him to declare free agency tomorrow if he is not promoted to the majors.

Miller has been one of the best pitchers in the International Leagues in recent weeks. In his last five starts, Miller has allowed seven earned runs over 30.1 innings with seven walks and 30 strikeouts.

Miller went 5.1 innings against Charlotte tonight, allowing one run on five hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts. He has a 2.47 earned run average this season.

According to the source, the Sox are planning to start Miller against the San Diego Padres next week and will create space in the rotation by shifting around the starts of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield. That would create essentially a six-man rotation.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/This year at AAA opposing batters are hitting .181 against him in 12 starts.

This could be something special or it could be a flameout. Either way.. he's a 6th starter. If he's great, we can move Wake back into the pen. Let's see what the kid's got. :popcorn:

FANTASY IMPACT:

Guy will get his K's but could hurt you in WHIP and potentially ERA if his control issues resurface. Could be worth a grab in deeper leagues where he's not rostered, or for folks in shallower leagues who are pitching starved and have the roster spot to use on a flyer.

Personal guess is: Upside he's a fireballing starter with bouts of inconsistency... possibly worthy of a 3 or MAYBE 2 slot. Downside is he flames out in his first start or two and goes back down to AAA quickly. Too tough to call.

 
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For those unfamilar with Miller, he was featured in an ESPN magazine article (I think?) about pitchers who have lost velocity for one reason or another. HE's gotten it back (Throws upper 90's) but has had some control issues due to a lack of a repeatable delivery. It seems this is in part due to the potential loss of him due to the contract stated above, and in part due to his last 4 starts in AAA resulting in 26K and 3BB.

Here are some wiki basics:

After attending Buchholz High School in Gainesville, Florida. Miller attended the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. While pitching for the North Carolina Tar Heels baseball team, Miller set the Carolina single season (133) and career strikeout records (325). He was also third in Tar Heels' history with 27 wins and fourth in total innings pitched with 309. He was named Baseball America National Player of the Year and Roger Clemens Award winner as the nation's top collegiate pitcher. He was also named to the first team All-America for Collegiate Baseball, Baseball America, NCBWA and Rivals.com

In the summer of 2005 Miller pitched for the Chatham Anglers in the Cape Cod Baseball League where he was named the College Summer Player of the Year by Baseball America and rated as the No. 1 prospect in the Cape League by the publication.[citation needed]
The sox are lucky enough to be in a place where they can afford to give this kid a couple starts upstairs to see what he's got against big-league hitting these days... I, for one, am curious. :popcorn:
 
A lot of people will say nay because of the constant teasing with his talent. People always want to give up on prospects before they're officially "finished" if the guy doesn't start off like Tim Lincecum out of the gate. But pretend we never heard much of the kid before, never knew about the injury history. Just pretend he was a nice prospect with good upside who got sidetracked by control issues. Now he's just a 26-year-old lefty flamethrower who will be starting for the best team in the league.

Definitely intriguing from a fantasy, and real life, perspective.

 
This most likely won't end well.
Of course. 10% Chance he's a semi-stud20% Chance he's a reliable back of rotation starter30% Chance he has a decent start or two and then fizzles back to AAA40% Chance He struggles right out of the game and is demoted back to AAA But still... there's a chance it could be interesting. I'll be tuning in Monday.
 
This most likely won't end well.
Of course. 10% Chance he's a semi-stud20% Chance he's a reliable back of rotation starter30% Chance he has a decent start or two and then fizzles back to AAA40% Chance He struggles right out of the game and is demoted back to AAA But still... there's a chance it could be interesting. I'll be tuning in Monday.
His issues are between the ears, the talent has always been there.
 
This most likely won't end well.
Of course. 10% Chance he's a semi-stud20% Chance he's a reliable back of rotation starter30% Chance he has a decent start or two and then fizzles back to AAA40% Chance He struggles right out of the game and is demoted back to AAA But still... there's a chance it could be interesting. I'll be tuning in Monday.
His issues are between the ears, the talent has always been there.
That has been the rap against him, maybe at 26 he has matured.
 
A lot of people will say nay because of the constant teasing with his talent. People always want to give up on prospects before they're officially "finished" if the guy doesn't start off like Tim Lincecum out of the gate. But pretend we never heard much of the kid before, never knew about the injury history. Just pretend he was a nice prospect with good upside who got sidetracked by control issues. Now he's just a 26-year-old lefty flamethrower who will be starting for the best team in the league.Definitely intriguing from a fantasy, and real life, perspective.
To be honest, if I'd never heard of him, I wouldn't get too excited over a 26 year old just getting called up from AAA.
 
A lot of people will say nay because of the constant teasing with his talent. People always want to give up on prospects before they're officially "finished" if the guy doesn't start off like Tim Lincecum out of the gate. But pretend we never heard much of the kid before, never knew about the injury history. Just pretend he was a nice prospect with good upside who got sidetracked by control issues. Now he's just a 26-year-old lefty flamethrower who will be starting for the best team in the league.Definitely intriguing from a fantasy, and real life, perspective.
To be honest, if I'd never heard of him, I wouldn't get too excited over a 26 year old just getting called up from AAA.
Understand to an extent. He's old for a prospect, but not for a lefty starter.Randy Johnson had horrid minor league stats, was still in the minors at 25, had his first semi-productive season at 26, and finally became a stud at 29.Cliff Lee was sent to the minors at 28 before coming back to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He also had control issues, with 201 BB in 434 minor league IP.And no, I'm not suggesting Miller's best season will be even half as good as RJ's worst...just saying, there is a precedent for guys figuring it out a bit later. And it's not like Johnson and Lee were so much more highly touted than Miller was. What I'm saying is, if you disregard anything you knew about the guy previously, you're left with a lefty recently hitting the upper 90's with a 26:3 strikeout to walk ratio.There's a reason why they always say you never give up on a talented lefty until you absolutely have to. If he flames out, he costs you a waiver wire bid. But he's got #1 type stuff. Worth a shot.
 
A lot of people will say nay because of the constant teasing with his talent. People always want to give up on prospects before they're officially "finished" if the guy doesn't start off like Tim Lincecum out of the gate. But pretend we never heard much of the kid before, never knew about the injury history. Just pretend he was a nice prospect with good upside who got sidetracked by control issues. Now he's just a 26-year-old lefty flamethrower who will be starting for the best team in the league.Definitely intriguing from a fantasy, and real life, perspective.
To be honest, if I'd never heard of him, I wouldn't get too excited over a 26 year old just getting called up from AAA.
Understand to an extent. He's old for a prospect, but not for a lefty starter.Randy Johnson had horrid minor league stats, was still in the minors at 25, had his first semi-productive season at 26, and finally became a stud at 29.Cliff Lee was sent to the minors at 28 before coming back to be one of the best pitchers in the league. He also had control issues, with 201 BB in 434 minor league IP.And no, I'm not suggesting Miller's best season will be even half as good as RJ's worst...just saying, there is a precedent for guys figuring it out a bit later. And it's not like Johnson and Lee were so much more highly touted than Miller was. What I'm saying is, if you disregard anything you knew about the guy previously, you're left with a lefty recently hitting the upper 90's with a 26:3 strikeout to walk ratio.There's a reason why they always say you never give up on a talented lefty until you absolutely have to. If he flames out, he costs you a waiver wire bid. But he's got #1 type stuff. Worth a shot.
I understand and didn't mean to downplay Miller's chances - he's certainly worth a shot for the Red Sox. You never know.I just don't expect too much.
 
I love everyone tripping over themselves to say the guy's not going to live up to his talent level. Careful WAYYYYY out there on that limb :D

We all know how these things usually turn out. We also know how these things sometimes turn out.

All I'm saying is for the baseball fan who likes to see this sort of kid come back to the majors, he's pitching Monday.

For the Fantasy fan who likes to grab fliers on this type of pitcher in the hopes of striking oil... he'll be available in most leagues.

For those who are sure he'll flop and don't see what the big to-do is... pretty sure there will be some "Two and a Half Men" reruns on that night :bye:

 
I love everyone tripping over themselves to say the guy's not going to live up to his talent level. Careful WAYYYYY out there on that limb :D We all know how these things usually turn out. We also know how these things sometimes turn out. All I'm saying is for the baseball fan who likes to see this sort of kid come back to the majors, he's pitching Monday. For the Fantasy fan who likes to grab fliers on this type of pitcher in the hopes of striking oil... he'll be available in most leagues. For those who are sure he'll flop and don't see what the big to-do is... pretty sure there will be some "Two and a Half Men" reruns on that night :bye:
Whatever dude. You started a thread about a 26 year old pitcher getting called up from AAA and then highlighted his AAA stats - as a 26 year old - and commented how it could be something special or a flameout.And then you criticize us for calling you out on that? It was a normal reaction to the hype of this thread. I haven't seen a lot of other threads started about 26 year old rookies (or retreads, as is the case here).
 
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I love everyone tripping over themselves to say the guy's not going to live up to his talent level. Careful WAYYYYY out there on that limb :D We all know how these things usually turn out. We also know how these things sometimes turn out. All I'm saying is for the baseball fan who likes to see this sort of kid come back to the majors, he's pitching Monday. For the Fantasy fan who likes to grab fliers on this type of pitcher in the hopes of striking oil... he'll be available in most leagues. For those who are sure he'll flop and don't see what the big to-do is... pretty sure there will be some "Two and a Half Men" reruns on that night :bye:
Whatever dude. You started a thread about a 26 year old pitcher getting called up from AAA and then highlighted his AAA stats - as a 26 year old - and commented how it could be something special or a flameout.And then you criticize us for calling you out on that? It was a normal reaction to the hype of this thread. I haven't seen a lot of other threads started about 26 year old rookies (or retreads, as is the case here).
Come on. The guys plays in the City of Champions. Show some respect.
 
Pitching is a premium in most leagues, you never have enough good pitching.

We all take fliers on pitchers when they get promoted to the big leagues.

I'm no bean counter, but I'd say off the top of my head, less than 5% earn

the right to stick around. I like Miller, I hope he has matured as a pitcher,

and does well.He might struggle Monday night, but long term, he will be ok IMO.

More important than my opinion,the sox's think he will do well to.

 
First inning down. 1K. 3 Ground balls.

Throwing a lot of strikes. (16 pitches, 12 strikes)

Fastball hitting 96. Change hovering in the mid 80s. Curve hitting around 80.

Acceptable first inning. :popcorn:

 
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Good Movement on his pitches

ETA: WEAK chopper single by Hudson. Good location on pitches (corners).

Looks like he might overthrow a touch occasionally. Usually causes him to miss high.

GREAT changeup from what I'm seeing. Fooling a lot of folks and he's throwing it for strikes.

ETA: And his first walk. Seems he's having a little trouble locating his fastball in that at-bat. Went to his change when he needed is strike.

First pitch vs next batter was a nice FB painting the lower corner followed by a NASTY 77mph curve... FB on outside corner for the K. Nice job there. :thumbup:

Another weak dribbler down the 1B line which Miller fielded and tagged him out. Padres having a lot of trouble making solid contact.

Grain of salt as Padres aren't exactly a powerhouse of an offense. Not hating what I'm seeing thus far though. Kid looking pretty decent in his first 2 innings.

 
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Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Linear Weights Time to PlateFF (FourSeam Fastball) 93.71 96.1 5.21 6.38 25 16 / 64.00% 0 / 0.00% 0.1524 0.403CH (Changeup) 84.40 86.2 5.59 3.35 8 7 / 87.50% 2 / 25.00% -0.5283 0.444SL (Slider) 78.48 81 -5.59 -7.95 6 4 / 66.67% 1 / 16.67% -0.0325 0.484FT (TwoSeam Fastball) 94.80 94.8 9.46 4.62 1 0 / 0.00% 0 / 0.00% 0.0247 0.401
Code:
Inning-by-Inning Pitch TotalsInning	Pitches in Inning	Strikes in Inning	Strike% in Inning	Cumulative Total Pitches	Pitch LWTS in Inning1	16	12	75.00	16	-0.3502	24	15	62.50	40	-0.034

Definitely worked harder in the 2nd. Location wasn't as consistent with his FB. He was forced to mix up his pitches a bit more. Unsure how much of that was due to the 40 pitch first inning by SD starter LeBlanc.

 
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3rd Inning. Good job with the first hitter getting yet another weak dribbler to 2nd for an out.

He then proceeded to dance aroung the plate, walking Bartlett on 5 pitches. Some pitches looked good (just off the corner) but he definitely let him get away.

Hit and run nets the first reasonably solid hit ball (Changeup up in zone). It looks like the Pads might be sitting on Miller's Change now given his trouble locating FB>

No sooner do I type that then he drops a nice FB on the bottom of the zone getting yet another weak ground ball which got a DP to get out of the inning.

I'm not sure anyone's hit one in hte air off him yet. I had no idea he was such a GB pitcher. I've not looked at his splits on that...

3rd inning had more issues with control:

Inning Pitches in Inning Strikes in Inning Strike% in Inning Cumulative Total Pitches Pitch LWTS in Inning1 16 12 75.00 16 -0.3502 24 15 62.50 40 -0.0343 10 5 50.00 50 -0.245
Code:
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to PlateFF (FourSeam Fastball)	93.58	96.1	5.24	6.41	29	17 / 58.62%	0 / 0.00%	0.3604	0.404CH (Changeup)	84.33	86.2	5.87	4.16	14	11 / 78.57%	2 / 14.29%	-0.9809	0.445SL (Slider)	78.48	81	-5.59	-7.95	6	4 / 66.67%	1 / 16.67%	-0.0325	0.484FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	94.80	94.8	9.46	4.62	1	0 / 0.00%	0 / 0.00%	0.0247	0.401

FB Strike percentage down to 58%. That's going to be a problem if it continues.

-

4th innning

Guzman starts off with a leadoff deep shot to center that nets him a triple. FB was right down the pipe. Clear mistake by Miller.

Weak popup.

Maybin goes down on another great curve that broke inside. FB location good during maybin at bat.

Curve nets a looping flyout to LF.

Miller pitches around leadoff triple to hold the shutout thru 4.

Inning Pitches in Inning Strikes in Inning Strike% in Inning Cumulative Total Pitches Pitch LWTS in Inning1 16 12 75.00 16 -0.3502 24 15 62.50 40 -0.0343 10 5 50.00 50 -0.2454 9 7 77.78 59 0.303
(Last inning I'll be doing this for those who aren't able to watch the game.... gotta head to a softball game so DVRing the rest of the game)

 
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Did we really need a separate thread and breakdown for this guy? He was a good sleeper pickup and Im glad I took a shot but this is ridiculous IMO.

 
Let's do the San Diego statistical conversion:

5.67 IP

3 R

7 H

3 BB

6 Ks

vs anyone else in the NL

3.67 IP

6 R

7 H

4 BB

2 Ks

vs a good hitting AL team

2 IP

7 R

8 H

2 BB

1 K

 
Let's do the San Diego statistical conversion:5.67 IP3 R7 H3 BB6 Ksvs anyone else in the NL3.67 IP6 R7 H4 BB2 Ksvs a good hitting AL team2 IP7 R8 H2 BB1 K
thats a real disingenuous take & not indicative on how he threw at all
The Padres have a .634 team OPS. Seattle had a .637 OPS last year, that was the worst team OPS in over 15 years. That's how bad the Padres offense is this year, they are dead last in about every relevant hitting category. It was more of a shot at the Padres than Miller, but I don't think you watch enough baseball to understand the difference anyway. Disingenuous. :lmao: GTFO :lmao:
 
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Let's do the San Diego statistical conversion:5.67 IP3 R7 H3 BB6 Ksvs anyone else in the NL3.67 IP6 R7 H4 BB2 Ksvs a good hitting AL team2 IP7 R8 H2 BB1 K
thats a real disingenuous take & not indicative on how he threw at all
The Padres have a .634 team OPS. Seattle had a .637 OPS last year, that was the worst team OPS in over 15 years. That's how bad the Padres offense is this year, they are dead last in about every relevant hitting category. It was more of a shot at the Padres than Miller, but I don't think you watch enough baseball to understand the difference anyway. Disingenuous. :lmao: GTFO :lmao:
:shrug:I was an English major :grad: who is basically a babysitter for the government. What do you want from me :homer:
 
'HellToupee said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Let's do the San Diego statistical conversion:5.67 IP3 R7 H3 BB6 Ksvs anyone else in the NL3.67 IP6 R7 H4 BB2 Ksvs a good hitting AL team2 IP7 R8 H2 BB1 K
thats a real disingenuous take & not indicative on how he threw at all
He gave up 10 baserunners, 3ER in 5.2 innings. How did he throw in your mind?
 
'HellToupee said:
'Doctor Detroit said:
Let's do the San Diego statistical conversion:5.67 IP3 R7 H3 BB6 Ksvs anyone else in the NL3.67 IP6 R7 H4 BB2 Ksvs a good hitting AL team2 IP7 R8 H2 BB1 K
thats a real disingenuous take & not indicative on how he threw at all
He gave up 10 baserunners, 3ER in 5.2 innings. How did he throw in your mind?
Well everything in the 1st three inning was on the ground , nothing hit in the air. I thought his FB was going to be better but his curve looked nice.
 
Didn't see any of the game, but saw that through 5 IP he had 5 K and 6 on without allowing a run. Looks like they got to him in the 6th. Were they hard-hit balls that were getting smoked all over the yard, missing location, ran out of gas?

 
Didn't see any of the game, but saw that through 5 IP he had 5 K and 6 on without allowing a run. Looks like they got to him in the 6th. Were they hard-hit balls that were getting smoked all over the yard, missing location, ran out of gas?
Through 4 innings there was exactly 1 hard hit ball. Through three there were zero. Weak dribbling grounders. I attribute this partially due to Pads crappy hitters and partially due to the movement on his fastball. The folks who actually WATCHED this kid pitch (vs playing :grad: based on a read from a statline) will tell you the fastball was quick, had good late life. He did a pretty good job of keeping it low and around the edges. He had some consistency issues with the fastball starting in the 2nd (how much was due to long inning, how much due to him...dunno). This led to him increasing the use of his offspeed stuff. Hitters started wising up in the 3rd and 4th and started sitting on the change. They had a very hard time getting to the curve (from what I saw). He did a nice job of pitching around a leadoff triple that kept the Pads scoreless at that point. I missed the "blowup" but my guess is he continued to have trouble with his fastball and got his offspeed stuff hit. I can check the data on that though. Overall a B+ early outing and C- from the 3rd inning on. I'm intrigued enough that I'd like to see him throw again.
Code:
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to PlateFF (FourSeam Fastball)	93.22	96.1	5.05	6.15	50	31 / 62.00%	2 / 4.00%	2.9912	0.405CH (Changeup)	84.30	86.2	5.68	3.67	21	15 / 71.43%	2 / 9.52%	-0.4826	0.446SL (Slider)	78.44	81.1	-5.73	-8.30	16	11 / 68.75%	5 / 31.25%	-1.1534	0.483FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	93.95	94.8	9.01	4.91	2	1 / 50.00%	0 / 0.00%	-0.0256	0.404
Mid 90s fastball with good movement (avg break of over 6"). The problem was he was throwing it for strikes at a 62% clip. Unacceptable. Changeup was going for strikes at a good clip and with a 9mph variance it should be effective. This was reflected in several badly fooled swings. Slider (more of a curve) had above average life (over 8" of break and it looked like a lot more than that) and he was throwing it for strikes pretty well.
Code:
1	16	12	75.00	16	-0.3502	24	15	62.50	40	-0.0343	10	5	50.00	50	-0.2454	9	7	77.78	59	0.3035	13	9	69.23	72	-0.8626	17	10	58.82	89	2.518
Looking above, when he could throw his FB for strikes, the combination of the velocity/movement and the solid change/curve led to short innings. When he had trouble throwing strikes is when he got into trouble as hitters waited on the inevitable off speed stuff and roped it. Bottom line is obvious... he needs to develop a consistent fastball. This is obviously part of the issue that has plagued him in the past. We'll see if he can overcome it or if he's destined for relief or a drop back down to AAA. To those asking why there is a thread for this guy? Because I wanted to create one. I apologize if the title or OP were in any way misleading. That said I figured it was pretty clear what was going on. It was a guy I was intrigued to see get another shot. It was obvious there were decent odds of mediocrity and/or failure. The "play by play" was to provide more information for those who may not have Extra Innings but still wanted a little more detail on the outing outside the stat line. For some, it's obvious by this thread, that a statline is enough. Going forward, don't want to read the thread, don't click it. :D I suspect he gets another start... esp with Dice getting TJ and Buck's back issues. I'd like to see another outing to see if he can locate his fastball.
 
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"For a while, it looked like the Red Sox would control this one from start to finish. Lanky lefty Andrew Miller was impressive in the first five innings of his Red Sox debut.

But with one ill-placed pitch in the top of the sixth, the 3-0 lead the Red Sox had built for Miller disappeared on a three-run homer off the bat of Orlando Hudson.

"It was probably the worst fastball I threw," said Miller. "It didn't come out as good as some of the other ones had earlier. It wasn't in enough. I think, if I throw a better pitch, the situation doesn't come up. Unfortunately, I left it out there for him and he made me pay."

Miller took a no-decision, while Matt Albers, who recorded four key outs while the game was tied, notched the victory.

All in all, though, it was a positive first step for Miller.

"I thought he was really good, and it was really encouraging," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "It's kind of a shame. He left a fastball to Hudson over the plate. He tried to come in, didn't quite get it there. It was three runs, [and] all of a sudden it's a 3-3 game. Fortunately for our team, we have a huge inning later. But his velocity was good. Changeup was really good. He's always had a feel for a breaking ball. There's a lot to be encouraged about. He just made a bad pitch and paid for it."

Miller seemed to thrive on the opportunity to pitch in front of a packed house.

"It's a lot of fun," Miller said. "Anytime you get to pitch at Fenway is going to be fun -- especially to go out there with a Red Sox uniform, it was a blast. Unfortunately, the last inning kind of brought me down to reality a little bit, but, all in all, it's hard to beat that experience.""

"

 
'Doctor Detroit said:
Let's do the San Diego statistical conversion:5.67 IP3 R7 H3 BB6 Ksvs anyone else in the NL3.67 IP6 R7 H4 BB2 Ksvs a good hitting AL team2 IP7 R8 H2 BB1 K
Don't disrespect a Prince from the City of Champions.
 
He looked pretty good, encouraging. His pitches have a ton of movement, and fastball looks strong. He reminded me a bit of Daisuke, walking a few, then tightening up and getting out of it. Overall I was satisfied with what I saw

 
The folks who actually WATCHED this kid pitch (vs playing :grad: based on a read from a statline) I missed the "blowup" but my guess is he continued to have trouble with his fastball and got his offspeed stuff hit. I can check the data on that though.
:unsure:
 

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