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Another Reason to Like Cadillac (1 Viewer)

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
OK - the below article is somewhat of a puff piece... :)

but i was reminded of how often in recent history the offensive rookie of the year has been a precursor to impending stardom... of course it doesn't insure he will be a stud... but there is a pretty impressive recent correlation (maybe this merely means that even in the most modestly talented classes, will generally have several extremely talented players... to emerge as #1 overall you have to be very talented)...

imo, the only thing that can derail his seeming destiny to be one of the top RBs in the league is injuries... & there is some risk... he has a well documented injury history that dates back to auburn... though some other talented, up 'n coming young RBs such as steven jackson & ronnie brown (who may be thought by some to be more resilient & robust due to bigger frames... i wonder if there is a correlation between bigger RBs necessarily getting fewer injuries?), have also been dinged during their brief NFL tenures...

compared to those probable future studs, cadillac imo has superior vision, instincts, cutting ability, elusiveness & pure running skills...

though he is admittedly smaller than above two (who both are about 230), he is close to 220... that is almost 10 lbs heavier than emmitt smith began his career at (caddy is 1'-2" inch taller & probably doesn't have smith's mammoth, earl campbell like lower body)... & that gives him anywhere from 20-40 lbs on typical DBs he encounters in the second level, where he is a beast to bring down in the open field (typically taking more than one DB to lasso him & bring him down)...

he also plays bigger than his size... he hits like a 240 lb RB... caddy reportedly patterned his game after walter payton, & it shows up on film... based on what i have seen, he may be even quicker & shiftier than his mentor... a lot of payton's game was predicated on being such a superior physical specimen he could flat overpower & dominate would be tacklers...

from the bucs site...

http://www.buccaneers.com/news/newsdetail.aspx?newsid=4997

In the NFL, Rookie of the Year awards usually portend fabulous careers, and the Bucs are certainly looking ahead when it comes to 2005 winner Cadillac Williams

The Start of Something Big

RB Cadillac Williams gave the Bucs many reasons to celebrate in 2005, but he's only getting started

Feb 03, 2006 -

"Cadillac Williams is a young man of few words, a fact those around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers found out about as quickly as they discovered that Williams is a special player.

The panoply surrounding the Super Bowl found that out on Thursday, too, when the league newcomer – strike that; the former league newcomer – was named NFL Rookie of the Year. Williams humbly accepted his award – he had to be prodded by emcee Rich Eisen to actually pick up the trophy – and he made sure to share the credit with his Buccaneer teammates. And he did so with an economy of words, quickly rejoining his fellow Rookie of the Year finalists in a row of seats on the stage.

But the last thing he said during his brief acceptance speech was the best thing, as far as Tampa Bay fans are concerned: “I’m looking forward to another one.”

That would be another season, specifically another season of enormous impact, and hopefully one even greater than the first. That’s the beauty of this specific award, particularly in football. It is usually bestowed at the beginning of a wonderful career.

As baseball fans know, that’s not necessarily the case in every sport. Ben Grieve anyone? How about Todd Hollandsworth, Eric Hinske or Jason Jennings? Ask a Milwaukee Brewers fan about Pat Listach or a Chicago Cubs fan about Jerome Walton.

One has to look a bit harder in the NFL to find rookies who win the ribbon and then fade into an average career or worse. The particular award that Williams won on Thursday, the one determined by fan voting on NFL.com, has only been around for four years, so it’s hard to make a judgment there, although previous winners Jeremy Shockey, Domanick Davis and Ben Roethlisberger seem like a fine bunch to join. But Williams also won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award earlier this month, and the list of players who share that honor is nothing short of brilliant.

One could argue that 2001 choice Anthony Thomas has failed to take off from his award-winning rookie season, but you can go back almost 15 years without finding another player you would put in that category. Mostly they are players who turned into the stars that their rookie seasons foretold – Randy Moss, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Anquan Boldin, Eddie George, Warrick Dunn, Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin and on and on. One can imagine a handful of Hall of Fame acceptance speeches coming from that group, and that’s only since 1993. Barry Sanders is also on that list, as are Eric Dickerson, Marcus Allen and Earl Campbell. And Tony Dorsett. Uh, Ottis Anderson, too. Franco Harris. We could go on and on, all the way back to the first winner, a man by the name of James Brown who might be the best running back in the history of the game.

So the Rookie of the Year award in the NFL is a source of genuine excitement, a reason to start looking ahead and dreaming big. That was certainly the reaction at One Buccaneer Place on Thursday, as the news came back from Detroit.

“This is a prestigious honor and well-deserved,” said Buccaneers Head Coach Jon Gruden. “Carnell is a great player, and he will continue to prove that. I can’t wait for the future.”

It’s easy for the Buccaneers to envision much greater seasons in the future for Williams, because his debut campaign, as great as it was, could have easily been much better. His NFL-record 434 rushing yards through the first three games of the season came on 88 carries, making it clear that the Bucs planned to give him the ball as often as possible. A foot injury sustained in Game Two, however, basically scuttled that plan for Games 4-9. When he was fully healthy again and running with abandon over the last six games, he was once again the driving force in the Bucs’ offense. He finished with 1,178 yards, but even conservative thinking would probably put him around at least 1,400 yards without the freak injury.

In retrospect, though, that chain of events might have been just fine. After proving that he could carry a huge load in the first three games despite the general sense that he is undersized for an NFL back, Williams then demonstrated that he could smoothly handle a heavy dose of adversity and pain.

“The one thing about Carnell that I think was a doubt in a lot of people’s minds, but it certainly wasn’t in ours, was his resiliency and his toughness,” said Running Backs Coach Art Valero. “He got off to a great start, he got a little nicked up, and he fought back and he came back and ended up having an outstanding year.”

The Bucs never doubted that the 5-11, 217-pound back out of Auburn could carry the ball on every down. They also never agreed with the “undersized” tag, pointing out that he is roughly the same size as many of the league’s most productive backs. Some of those players with whom he was compared are fellow Rookie of the Year alumni. Now the Bucs believe he can produce the same sort of career numbers.

“He showed everybody that one, he is durable like those other guys that are his size, the Tiki Barbers and the Marshall Faulks and Curtis Martins of the world,” said Valero. “I think he’s got that kind of ability. The key thing for him, and for all of us, is to come back with a great sophomore year, tack on a few more honors, and this time, hopefully, get to be a Pro Bowl guy.”

The funny thing was that two of Williams’ four competitors for the NFL Rookie of the Year award are headed to the Pro Bowl. That’s where San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman and Seattle linebacker Lofa Tatupu will be a week from Sunday (Tatupu will be playing in Sunday’s Super Bowl first). Along with two more linebackers – Dallas’ DeMarcus Ware and Cincinnati’s Odell Thurman – they formed a tough group for Williams to overcome in the voting. But his victory Thursday among those who eat, drink and sleep football said a couple of things.

One, Williams is the type of player whom fans love to watch.

As noted, the Buccaneer back was also the recipient of the prestigious Offensive Rookie of the Year award given by the AP since 1957. That honor is chosen by a panel of media, which is significant because those voters are very well-informed on the game. However, Williams didn’t get too strong of a competition from any of the other offensive rookies. There was no full-season QB starter like Roethlisberger, no ultra-prolific receiver like Michael Clayton or Anquan Boldin, no other back who broke 1,000 yards. Frankly, it was an obvious choice.

But when you’re talking about 400,000 fans casting their votes on NFL.com, then you’re talking about a player who captured people’s imagination. Williams was often exhilarating to watch; when he was healthy, there was often a sense that something big was going to happen. And his big plays and big days were memorable.

He stuck the dagger into Minnesota, ground away in Green Bay to kill the Lambeau Curse and tortured the Falcons twice. The Bucs were trying to run out the clock on a third-and-nine run from the 10 in Carolina, and all he did there was go the full 10 yards for the game-clinching touchdown. That wasn’t supposed to happen; a field goal and a 14-point lead was the obvious result. But with Williams, it seemed possible.

And, two, this one was all rookies, not just offensive players.

If there wasn’t another serious threat to his offensive award, there was obvious a legion of defensive stars who could have gotten the nod. Merriman had 10 sacks and looked like a force for years to come in San Diego. Tatupu quickly became the heart of a much-improved Seattle defense, and he was running around making critical postseason plays while fan voting was going on in January.

In that sense, Williams’ victory on Thursday was the equivalent of Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks’ selections as 2005 AP All-Pro First-Teamers on January 9. Barber and Brooks were already Pro Bowlers by that point, but the Pro Bowl has two teams, one for each conference, and multiple players at every position. The AP All-Pro team is basically the single best starting lineup drawn from all the players in the NFL.

That’s something for Williams to get excited about, even if he might not express it too outwardly. More importantly, it’s something for Buccaneer fans to get excited about. And that something is the future."

 
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Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient. This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.

 
Two words: Anthony Thomas
the comparisons stop after the award they share... nothing about thomas' running skills even remotely resemble caddillac's... thomas was a second round pick who most scouts thought could be a good, if not great player...caddy was one of three RBs picked in top 5 overall in one of most heralded RB classes (at least at the top) in NFL history...

 
Two words: Anthony Thomas
the comparisons stop after the award they share... nothing about thomas' running skills even remotely resemble caddillac's... thomas was a second round pick who most scouts thought could be a good, if not great player...caddy was one of three RBs picked in top 5 overall in one of most heralded RB classes (at least at the top) in NFL history...
Sorry, the reference was to the assertion that ROY leads to stardom, not comparing the two runners.
 
Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient. This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...

 
Two words: Anthony Thomas
the comparisons stop after the award they share... nothing about thomas' running skills even remotely resemble caddillac's... thomas was a second round pick who most scouts thought could be a good, if not great player...caddy was one of three RBs picked in top 5 overall in one of most heralded RB classes (at least at the top) in NFL history...
Sorry, the reference was to the assertion that ROY leads to stardom, not comparing the two runners.
this was in second sentence of first post..."i was reminded of how often in recent history the offensive rookie of the year has been a precursor to impending stardom..."

the operative word there (& in the sub-title, for that matter) is OFTEN... not ALWAYS...

* just like getting 1,500 yards in rookie season USUALLY spells good things... but in the case of mike anderson, don't know as i would characterize him as a supremely gifted runner.

 
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Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. So I guess you *could* conclude that Carnell's #s are inflated by those big plays. Whether it is a fair analysis to take away those big plays is questionable of course!

Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).

 
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Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
fair enough aussie,part of the deal there is due to his superb conditioning, he tends to wear out defenses in the fourth quarter (& gruden seems to be a jugular vein kind of dude)... thanx to bloom for that observation...

but whether in real football sense... that is usually a GOOD thing if you are running a lot at the end... it generally means your team is probably either ahead or close...

also in a fantasy sense... nothing wrong with getting disproportionate amount of yards in 4th quarter... if caddy gets 100+ yards, there is no penalty for getting more in 4th than an exactly equal distribution through all four quarters... 100+ yards is 100+ yards, regardless of how they are distributed... i would be OK with 0 yards throgh first 59 minutes if he got 100 in last minute...

* edit/add - an important point you raise is if this is analogue to point dr. drinen made that boldin was a risk due to disproportionate amount of reception gotten in "garbage time"...

in passing game, garbage time usually means you are behind... in running game, as noted above... that team is AHEAD... now maybe this could change... but with that defense, i see them being in a lot of games for forseeable future...

it also probably didn't escape our attention than boldin did just fine, thank you, in year three when he wasn't hindered by injury... if there was doubt before, many now would concede that boldin is the real deal, & capable of putting up top 5-10 numbers...

 
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Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
fair enough aussie,part of the deal there is due to his superb conditioning, he tends to wear out defenses in the fourth quarter (& gruden seems to be a jugular vein kind of dude)... thanx to bloom for that observation...

but whether in real football sense... that is usually a GOOD thing if you are running a lot at the ned... it generally means your team is probably either ahead or close...

also in a fantasy sense... nothing wrong with getting disproportionate amount of yards in 4th quarter... if caddy gets 100+ yards, there is no penalty for getting more in 4th than an exactly equal distribution through all four quarters...
David Yudkin had a post in the thread about Edge ranked #9 where he compared all RBs who had a season with 290 or more carries. Out of 213 such players Caddy ranked 203 for fantasy points scored.
 
Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
fair enough aussie,part of the deal there is due to his superb conditioning, he tends to wear out defenses in the fourth quarter (& gruden seems to be a jugular vein kind of dude)... thanx to bloom for that observation...

but whether in real football sense... that is usually a GOOD thing if you are running a lot at the ned... it generally means your team is probably either ahead or close...

also in a fantasy sense... nothing wrong with getting disproportionate amount of yards in 4th quarter... if caddy gets 100+ yards, there is no penalty for getting more in 4th than an exactly equal distribution through all four quarters...
David Yudkin had a post in the thread about Edge ranked #9 where he compared all RBs who had a season with 290 or more carries. Out of 213 such players Caddy ranked 203 for fantasy points scored.
interesting study by yudkin (as usual)...though i wonder how many of those 213 were rookies (to make more of an apples to apples comparison)... he would still by definition fall low on relative basis... but that would have to be out of a much smaller set of data...

a more important mitigating factor might be... how many RBs in above mentioned study (or if we narrow study... how many ROOKIES) had equivalent of broken foot after game two... this can be a devestating injury for RB whose bread & butter is ability to plant hard & cut off of foot...

before injury (actually through game three), he was putting up monster numbers that clearly would have pushed him up far higher in david's study...

in that case, anybody that strongly suspects he will break his foot in week 2 again this season (& every season in future) should probably best avoid him for their peace of mind... :)

* it will be hard for him to ever be a top 5 RB with 6 rushing TDs (tiki put up massive numbers with about 9 rushing TDs... & i think more than that combined TDs)... conversely, if he can get to double digit TDs, he should be a perennial top 10 RB...

 
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Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
fair enough aussie,part of the deal there is due to his superb conditioning, he tends to wear out defenses in the fourth quarter (& gruden seems to be a jugular vein kind of dude)... thanx to bloom for that observation...

but whether in real football sense... that is usually a GOOD thing if you are running a lot at the ned... it generally means your team is probably either ahead or close...

also in a fantasy sense... nothing wrong with getting disproportionate amount of yards in 4th quarter... if caddy gets 100+ yards, there is no penalty for getting more in 4th than an exactly equal distribution through all four quarters...
David Yudkin had a post in the thread about Edge ranked #9 where he compared all RBs who had a season with 290 or more carries. Out of 213 such players Caddy ranked 203 for fantasy points scored.
interesting study by yudkin (as usual)...though i wonder how many of those 213 were rookies (to make more of an apples to apples comparison)... he would still by definition fall low on relative basis... but that would have to be out of a much smaller set of data...

a more important mitigating factor might be... how many RBs in above mentioned study (or if we narrow study... how many ROOKIES) had equivalent of broken foot after game two... this can be a devestating injury for RB whose bread & butter is ability to plant hard & cut off of foot...

before injury (actually through game three), he was putting up monster numbers that clearly would have pushed him up far higher in david's study...

in that case, anybody that strongly suspects he will break his foot in week 2 again this season (& every season in future) should probably best avoid him for their peace of mind... :)

* it will be hard for him to ever be a top 5 RB with 6 rushing TDs (tiki put up massive numbers with about 9 rushing TDs... & i think more than that combined TDs)... conversely, if he can get to double digit TDs, he should be a perennial top 10 RB...
I think the biggest problem with David's study is that it is of running backs with 290 carries or more. Caddy had 290 carries exactly. When you are including him in a study with guys who had 350 carries then it isn't exactly suprising that he finished near the bottom of the list. A more valid study would be comparing backs within a range of say 270-310 carries in a season.
 
Didn't Mike Anderson win ROY too? FF sucess depends mostly upon staying healthy and opportunity. I'm a Caddy fan, but he was hurt almost from the get-go in '05 and his opportunities in the Tampa offense seem to be confounded by Gruden's coaching style and the presense of Atstott and Pittman.

 
I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs.

So I guess you *could* conclude that Carnell's #s are inflated by those big plays. Whether it is a fair analysis to take away those big plays is questionable of course!

Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
And how did Caddy compare to all the other RBs who had their big gainers stripped away? Or was this one of those "studies" when one guy is looked at through a microscope and compared to everyone else in the league unadjusted?
 
thanx for the clarification, q-bert...

i'm grateful for the aggregate statistician expertise horsepower FBG sports, it help ground my at times more speculative flights... i try & balance what my scouting eye & comp player gut instinct tells me with what stat hondos context, perspective & framing insights suggest about what is likely & unlikely...

i'm also guilty at times of THINKING in terms of dynasty... but not explicitly saying so... clearly, caddy is probably worthy of higher dynasty pick at this time, than we could say in a redraft sense...

caddy is especially hard to get a sense of, as his first three game involved such a horrific example of overwork... he may be a tough dude, but 90 carries in first three games is an unsustainable clip...

so we can't just mindlessly prorate his year long stats, trying to account for injuries by simple extrapolation of his first three games over 16 games...

breaking out the game log...

he had six games in which he had no mort than 13 carries (two or three were DNP)... in those games he failed to gain over 29 yards or a TD...

in his other games, where he had 14 or more carries (in fact, i think in all but the 14 carry game, he probably had more like 20+), he averaged closer to 100 rushing YPG (?) & had 6 TDs... more promising, he had TDs in his first two games (BEFORE injury)... after extended interval of injury impairment, he got on a roll... scoring 3 TDs in last four weeks... the numbers when healthy project better to double digit TDs...

perhaps it is not too big a stretch to think alstott got to punch it in more when caddy was injured or not playing... he seemed to get his chances when healthy...

just to attempt to get a handle on his stats if he can play more games healthy in 2006... i increased his stats by 25%... in FBG scoring... that would bump him from about 161 pts & #20 RB to 201 pts & #9 RB... where thomas jones finished...

clearly his ability to stay healthy (or lack thereof) could make or break his sophomore season... & the arc & trajectory of how his future career unfolds...

 
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This sounds suspiciously like whistling in the dark after trading away Tomlinson for Williams...

;)

 
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Eisen interviewed Gruden last night on NFL Total Access. Given Eisen has a decent relationship with most in the NFL and a casual style, he got away with point blanking Gruden on his use of Williams.

This is from memory so have patience if I am wrong but Gruden stated Williams got hurt...he could have used him a little too much at the start of the season (Gruden smiled when he admitted that)...Williams is one of the best conditioned athletes Gruden has seen...Gruden believes in the kid and Williams will get the ball early and often (Gruden adamant about this fact)...There will be games that Williams, if hot, will get an absurd amount of touches in the future.

Take from it what you want.

 
Didn't Mike Anderson win ROY too? FF sucess depends mostly upon staying healthy and opportunity. I'm a Caddy fan, but he was hurt almost from the get-go in '05 and his opportunities in the Tampa offense seem to be confounded by Gruden's coaching style and the presense of Atstott and Pittman.
Re: Gruden giving Carnell opps.Towards the end of the year, more and more important carries went to Carnell. The 4th and 1 v Atlanta was the biggest carry of the year for the Bucs, and Carnell scored form 7 yards out on that one.

Pittman has been very vocal about looking to make a bigger impact on Special Teams.

Alstott is what he is...a 250-pound goalline vulture. But an aging one...

Carnell's opps will increase.

 
Didn't Mike Anderson win ROY too? FF sucess depends mostly upon staying healthy and opportunity. I'm a Caddy fan, but he was hurt almost from the get-go in '05 and his opportunities in the Tampa offense seem to be confounded by Gruden's coaching style and the presense of Atstott and Pittman.
Re: Gruden giving Carnell opps.Towards the end of the year, more and more important carries went to Carnell. The 4th and 1 v Atlanta was the biggest carry of the year for the Bucs, and Carnell scored form 7 yards out on that one.

Pittman has been very vocal about looking to make a bigger impact on Special Teams.

Alstott is what he is...a 250-pound goalline vulture. But an aging one...

Carnell's opps will increase.
exactly... people shouldn't forget that he was one of the best goal line runners in the nation while at auburn... playing at a then 205 lbs (now listed at a priest holmes like 217), he was the de facto goal line runner despite the presence of beast teammate ronnie brown... i remember colin in his pre-draft observations RAVING about how great his strength & contact balance were for his size... plus his uncanny knack to see the hole & hit the hole...he generates a lot of power from his phenomenal leg drive... caddy could be a little stick of dynamite around the goal line for many years...

 
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One more thing about the foot if it hasnt been added already (ive said this in another caddy thread) - Caddy said he concealed how bad the foot was at first, making it a lot worse - he said he definitely learned his lesson from this.

 
exactly... people shouldn't forget that he was one of the best goal line runners in the nation while at auburn... playing at a then 205 lbs (now listed at a priest holmes like 217), he was the de facto goal line runner despite the presence of beast teammate ronnie brown... i remember colin in his pre-draft observations RAVING about how great his strength & contact balance were for his size... plus his uncanny knack to see the hole & hit the hole...

he generates a lot of power from his phenomenal leg drive... caddy could be a little stick of dynamite around the goal line for many years...
just to drive this point home, I've heard more than a few times that caddy runs "20 pounds heavier" than his playing weight (paraphrasing).
 
to ever become elite, ne needs to be used more in the passing game. I like him a lot next year though.

 
Looking back at the highlights, it's amazing what Cadillac was able to do in some instances with a tiny amount of space to run through... It's clear he has remarkable vision, a lot of power, and some serious burst. A lot depends on his ability to stay healthy but he is a very talented runner, and I think with a full season of NFL-style conditioning, a year of experience, and the continued growth of his offensive line and commitment of his coach, he should be in store for a very solid season. I think he's top 12 for sure barring injury with the upside of being RB 4-7 if he starts to take over the goal line work.

 
So I guess you *could* conclude that Carnell's #s are inflated by those big plays. Whether it is a fair analysis to take away those big plays is questionable of course!
This is a so ignorant and stupid statement as it has been stated on these boards over and over again, if you take big plays away from alot of RB's, their average won't look good anyways. Be fair to any player when making statements like that.
 
based on what i have seen, he may be even quicker & shiftier than his mentor... a lot of payton's game was predicated on being such a superior physical specimen he could flat overpower & dominate would be tacklers...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

 
Looking back at the highlights, it's amazing what Cadillac was able to do in some instances with a tiny amount of space to run through... It's clear he has remarkable vision, a lot of power, and some serious burst. A lot depends on his ability to stay healthy but he is a very talented runner, and I think with a full season of NFL-style conditioning, a year of experience, and the continued growth of his offensive line and commitment of his coach, he should be in store for a very solid season. I think he's top 12 for sure barring injury with the upside of being RB 4-7 if he starts to take over the goal line work.
some other things that could bode well for cadillac are the evolution & maturity of his supporting cast (not so much with galloway)... simms year more experienced... same with TE alex smith... clayton, if he could return to outstanding 2004 form, would make for a dangerous trio of downfield receiving weapons with RAC ability (along with galloway & smith)... OL could be improved... they might add mcneill in first, guy like latui in second or third... massive but underachieving FA OL mike williams & stockar mcdougal, if nothing else, should beef up OL depth... if they somehow landed man mountain jean gilles to team with man mountain williams...those two would not be good choices for the... see how many tampa bay bucs you can stuff into a volkswagen contest... :)

& that defense is very good... not only do they keep a lot of games close (& in position to run)... caddy also gets the benefit of a lot of short fields... with a lot of opponent three-and-outs, he must get to exploit a lot of opponent field position attrition as the game progresses... they will probably face few defenses that are better in a 16 game schedule...

 
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I agree with those saying that Caddy's role at the goal line should increase.

We'll have to see how it plays out, but I think a lot of Alstott's increased use in that role may have been out of necessity - Caddy being hurt and a less-than-dominant OL.

 
Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. So I guess you *could* conclude that Carnell's #s are inflated by those big plays. Whether it is a fair analysis to take away those big plays is questionable of course!

Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
If you take away any back's big runs their YPC will take a hit. This might be the most illogical "argument" I've ever seen on here. And that's saying something.
 
Some guys have mentioned this, but a closer inspection of Carnell Williams' #s, and you'll see that he is pathetically inefficient.  This may be a minor gripe for some, but it raises a red flag for me.
not sure what you mean? could you be more specific... he averaged a respectable 4.1 yards in his rookie season... for the record, edge averaged 4.2 in HIS celebrated rookie year... LT a pedestrian 3.6 yards (i think)... should we be worried about THOSE red flags... :) not to mention he was basically playing on a broken foot after week two (slight exaggeration), which tends to cut into your YPC average...
I couldn't say to be honest - I trawl through so much crap, that all I can tell you is that somebody on this board (or FFToday) did an analysis on how efficient Cadillac uses the ball. I think the premise is that if you take away the big plays in garbage time (when the Bucs were in the lead) - of which he had quite a few, his YPC is pretty bad. I also remember that he had a fair few carries where he had just 1-3 yd gains on first and second downs. So I guess you *could* conclude that Carnell's #s are inflated by those big plays. Whether it is a fair analysis to take away those big plays is questionable of course!

Like I said, I didn't do the analysis myself (and I'm not the kind of guy who would do such an analysis).
If you take away any back's big runs their YPC will take a hit. This might be the most illogical "argument" I've ever seen on here. And that's saying something.
The whole "if you take away the long runs..." argument is an annual ritual around here.
 
my only concern w/ him is alstott resigning and the return of pittman. i dont feel he'll get enough goal line carries this year and it may be too early to judge but their schedule is a beast. i'll take ronnieb over caddy at this point,ronnie almost had the same rushing yardage w/ about 100 fewer carries. yes,i remember caddy missing some games but that nfc south (w/ the exclusion of the 'aints) will be tough to run on this year...

 
my only concern w/ him is alstott resigning and the return of pittman. i dont feel he'll get enough goal line carries this year and it may be too early to judge but their schedule is a beast. i'll take ronnieb over caddy at this point,ronnie almost had the same rushing yardage w/ about 100 fewer carries. yes,i remember caddy missing some games but that nfc south (w/ the exclusion of the 'aints) will be tough to run on this year...
carolina i agree with...but caddy GASHED the falcons last season... abraham a key addition but not known for his stout run support... getting hartwell back will help, as will addition of milloy & crocker at safety... but i could see them being middle of the pack...

 
bob, i think i maybe trying to convince myself that trading him a few weeks ago was a good move... he was my rookie keeper and the recent soph slumps of k/jjones scared me... i agree he gashed atlanta but they had their share of injuries last year and i think they will be much improved...

 
The next elite RB in FF.

Caddy, a top 5 pick  in all drafts in 07.
I am not sure that Caddy will get the goaline carries that are necessary to justify a top-5 pick.
Maybe not, but the 50+ receptions certainly won't hurt his case.
 
Caddy showed during pre-draft combine last year that he is a good reciever out of the back, eventhough he has not been used as such alot in college or during his first season. As the Bucs O-line improves, I think we'll see some change to this.

 

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