Another Stressed QB Decision (1 Viewer)

[mogrod]

Hey everyone,

LEAGUE SETTINGS: .5 PTS PER COMP / 6 PTS PER RUSH TD / 4 PTS PER PASS TD / -2 PTS INTS

In my league, the QBs as a whole score a lot (a nice week is 40-50 pts). The issue comes in if your QB has a bad week, and scores in the 30's or less, you're potentially losing 20+ points to your opponent. But, instead of a "normal" league giving some advantage to QBs who get rushing yards, this league has an advantage to total yardage (especially pass yards) and completions. I mean, a decent day of 18 of 25 for 220 yards already gives a baseline of 31 points, even before rushing yards and TDs.

So, in my first round of playoffs (in which I play against a team with Burrow), I have to decide between....

Herbert vs. KC
- KC pass defense hasn't been great, just gave up a lot to Aiden O'Connell. But he had a dud week last week against what has been a bad pass defense and Ladd is banged up or maybe out.

Winston vs. PIT
- Winston has been throwing a LOT, so the completions and possible yardage will be there. But, against that PIT D, could he have a bad day where he doesn't throw for many yards and has more INTs than TDs? He scored 82 points in this league last week, 60+ a couple of weeks ago but only 34 against this same PIT team, albeit in the snow.

I can also pick up and play Wilson vs. CLE, Caleb Williams vs. SF, O'Connell vs. TB
-Wilson playing well but will he put up enough stats? Caleb is intriguing for sure but I have PTSD where I played him coming off some good games and he BOMBED. O'Connell put up stats last week vs. KC and against possible worst pass D in league.

Any suggestions and thoughts are very much appreciated!

 

[Rubi]

I'd light up a Winston this week

 

[Gally]

What is the rest of your matchup like? Are you heavy underdog? If so, Winston is the choice. If you are an even matchup I might lean with the floor of Wilson. The -2 per pick could drop Winston quite a bit.

 

[mogrod]

MY TEAM

QB
RB Achane
RB Gibbs
WR Puka
WR London or Nabers
TE McBride
FLX Breece, Tracy or Gerendo

OPPONENT
QB Burrow
RB A Jones
RB Pacheco
WR Jefferson
WR Kupp
TE Bowers
FLX JSN (just a guess as he hasn't set his lineup yet and has Nico on bye. But could be Hunt or Etienne)

I feel the 4 pts per PTD counters that INT -2, especially since QBs get so many points. But, like I said in original post, Burrow could easily put up 60+ pts vs the Cowboys and, if I get less than 40 from my QB, then that's a big hill to overcome no matter what the rest of my team does. QBs are slim pickens so I picked up and held Herbert just for this week, and it's a good matchup on paper, but man I'm not confident after last week and with Ladd beat up. But Herbert could be forced to throw a lot. SEEMS like Winston has a higher floor for as much as they pass but PIT has been so good against QBs this year. Wilson's potential to not throw a lot in the game worries me but I can see the argument of him maybe being a safer option. I'm just trying to get at least in the 40's in scoring from my QB.

 

[Gally]

Burrow could easily put up 60+ pts vs the Cowboys and, if I get less than 40 from my QB, then that's a big hill to overcome no matter what the rest of my team does.

What do the other positions score? I mean are they down in the 15 pt range where it would take winning 3 other positions to make up that 40 pt QB deficit? If that's the case then I would shoot for the moon and go with Winston. He is really the only guy I would trust getting to 60+ pts

 

[mogrod]

Currently I tentatively have Herbert, London and Breece as starters and I'm projecting what his final lineup would be...

Per ESPN projection
I am leading 149.7 - 149.1
(Herbert at 46 pts and Burrow at 53. Winston at 44)

Per FantasyPros projection (which seems to have trouble calculating our QB scoring as it seems to not count the .5pts per completions)
I am leading 131.34 - 128.44
(Herbert at 32 pts and Burrow at 37. Winston at 29)

Per FootballGuys League Dominator
Herbert at 40
Winston at 47

 

[Jaruby]

Winston with your scoring. He’s gonna throw 50 times.