Anthony Gonzalez in the post Marvin era (1 Viewer)

[doowain]

With today's news that Marvin has been granted his release from the Colts, what is everyone's feelings about Anthony Gonzalez? I know the writing has been on the wall for a while now, so Gonzalez's value was already moderately high as he is currently ranked as WR23 in the FBG Staff Dynasty Rankings (using the three most recent). Bloom's current rankings (2/21) have him as WR16. I've never been a huge fan of Gonzalez, as I'm more intrigued with Roy Hall's potential, but I don't think there is much doubt with Marvin gone that we can expect AGonz to step into the #2WR role in Indy. He's quick, runs great routes, has good hands, and , IMO, the best QB in the league is throwing him the ball. Coincidentally, these are the same reasons everyone is infatuated with Eddie Royal. I know Gonzalez doesn't have a 90 rec. season under his belt, but I could see him getting the same love around these boards in a year.

So, where would you rank him among other WRs for dynasty purposes and what are you expecting from him during his first year as a starter?

I'd rank him around WR15-18 (dynasty) and I'd expect close to a 1000 yard season from him.

70/950/6 sounds about right for his first year, which would put him at WR23 last year. A below average WR2 or an elite WR3.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I dont think he is as quick as Royal, but he is a solid all around WR who is perfect #2 on the other side of Reggie Wayne. The only thing i see stopping Gonzo from a 1100 yard 8 TD season is Dallas Clark get too many targets. There should be plenty to go around though, especially with the lack of a good running back.

 

[jwb]

With today's news that Marvin has been granted his release from the Colts, what is everyone's feelings about Anthony Gonzalez? I know the writing has been on the wall for a while now, so Gonzalez's value was already moderately high as he is currently ranked as WR23 in the FBG Staff Dynasty Rankings (using the three most recent). Bloom's current rankings (2/21) have him as WR16. I've never been a huge fan of Gonzalez, as I'm more intrigued with Roy Hall's potential, but I don't think there is much doubt with Marvin gone that we can expect AGonz to step into the #2WR role in Indy. He's quick, runs great routes, has good hands, and , IMO, the best QB in the league is throwing him the ball. Coincidentally, these are the same reasons everyone is infatuated with Eddie Royal. I know Gonzalez doesn't have a 90 rec. season under his belt, but I could see him getting the same love around these boards in a year.

So, where would you rank him among other WRs for dynasty purposes and what are you expecting from him during his first year as a starter?

I'd rank him around WR15-18 (dynasty) and I'd expect close to a 1000 yard season from him.

70/950/6 sounds about right for his first year, which would put him at WR23 last year. A below average WR2 or an elite WR3.

I think we got big-time spoiled by the rookies last year. To me, Gonzo is right on track:37/3 year one

57/4 last year

He improved 20 receptions from year one to year two, and I think he'll have at least that kind of jump again with Marvin gone. Probably more. More importantly, I have liked what I have seen from him - his production, to me, was more "you gotta earn it / wait your turn, kid" than anything else.

This year is his big breakout: 85/1100/8

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

A solid compliment to Wayne and a Top 3 QB is nothing to sneeze at.

Last year Marvin had 107 targets, Gonzo had 79.

Gonzo put up 57-664-4 on that workload.

Just simply starting by checking his reception % (57/79 - a bit high at 72%, much like Royal at 71%). Average is 60-65%.

Neither Royal nor Gonzo had big YPC (Gonzo 8.4, Royal 7.6) so a high reception % isn't surprising.

Taking Marvin's role and assuming similar targets but maybe a 2/3 catch percentage and a slight uptick to 12.5 YPC and you can easily see how he can get 70-75 catches on 105-115 targets and rack up 900-ish yards and 6-7 TDs.

Clark is a threat to steal targets, but if you assume he goes as the new WR3, that's 79 targets to take in that offense.

Peyton's averaged 313 targets to WRs / season for the last 3 years. That's a lot of Wayne / Gonzo love for 09.

 

[doowain]

A solid compliment to Wayne and a Top 3 QB is nothing to sneeze at.

Last year Marvin had 107 targets, Gonzo had 79.

Gonzo put up 57-664-4 on that workload.

Just simply starting by checking his reception % (57/79 - a bit high at 72%, much like Royal at 71%). Average is 60-65%.

Neither Royal nor Gonzo had big YPC (Gonzo 8.4, Royal 7.6) so a high reception % isn't surprising.

Taking Marvin's role and assuming similar targets but maybe a 2/3 catch percentage and a slight uptick to 12.5 YPC and you can easily see how he can get 70-75 catches on 105-115 targets and rack up 900-ish yards and 6-7 TDs.

Clark is a threat to steal targets, but if you assume he goes as the new WR3, that's 79 targets to take in that offense.

Peyton's averaged 313 targets to WRs / season for the last 3 years. That's a lot of Wayne / Gonzo love for 09.

That's pretty much how I arrived at my projection.

 

[Chadstroma]

A solid compliment to Wayne and a Top 3 QB is nothing to sneeze at.Last year Marvin had 107 targets, Gonzo had 79.Gonzo put up 57-664-4 on that workload.Just simply starting by checking his reception % (57/79 - a bit high at 72%, much like Royal at 71%). Average is 60-65%.Neither Royal nor Gonzo had big YPC (Gonzo 8.4, Royal 7.6) so a high reception % isn't surprising.Taking Marvin's role and assuming similar targets but maybe a 2/3 catch percentage and a slight uptick to 12.5 YPC and you can easily see how he can get 70-75 catches on 105-115 targets and rack up 900-ish yards and 6-7 TDs.Clark is a threat to steal targets, but if you assume he goes as the new WR3, that's 79 targets to take in that offense.Peyton's averaged 313 targets to WRs / season for the last 3 years. That's a lot of Wayne / Gonzo love for 09.

 

[Sinrman]

Makes me feel better knowing I didn't trade him in my main league. A few weeks back I had made offers to several owners trying to move up at the position, such as Gonzo and Holt for Colston, and was turned down. This was before the news that Harrison might get cut/would ask to be released. Think I'll hang on to him now...

 

[gianmarco]

Color me pessimistic but I don't see the upside in A. Gonz that others are seeing. I think this news is going to cause him to be overrated by many. Here are my reasons:

--I've read in more than one spot that Indy will be looking to get a good WR in this draft. And not just by people speculating but by Indy personnel themselves. This doesn't necessarily mean that the new WR supplants AGonz this year, but I would temper my enthusiasm for his future because of this

--Gonzalez is not a physical specimen and doesn't have top notch physical skills. His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

--Gonzalez is more suited as a slot WR and I think that's where he's going to stay (not to mention I've read talk about that as well). This limits his upside as well.

--I love Peyton Manning but the days of the elite Colt's offensive machine are over, I think. For now, their running game isn't as good as it used to be. Their O-line isn't as good as it used to be. And even their #1 WR isn't as good as it used to be. I don't think Wayne is nearly as talented as Harrison was and he's already in his 30's as well. The combo of Harrison/Wayne is >>> Wayne/Gonzalez. Indy will still be good, will still put up pts, and Peyton will still get his, but I don't think we'll be seeing it at the previous level again with this group. Still top 10 but not gonna be fighting for the top 2-3 offensive spots, IMO.

I don't think Gonzalez is going to be a complete bust. I think he is a good WR, but I think his upside is limited and I think many projections for him are going to be too lofty. If you were able to get him cheaply over the last 1-2 yrs then that's fantastic. But there is NO WAY I would be going after him now with the price tag he will likely command and I would definitely be looking to sell him if someone was willing to overpay.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

--Gonzalez is not a physical specimen and doesn't have top notch physical skills. His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

Gonzalez Combine Numbers:4.44 40

38" vert

4.08 short shuttle

6.54 3 cone

Those aren't numbers that get a guy in the top 10 picks, but he's a very very good athlete, that combination of speed, explosion, and quicks is NFL starting quality without a doubt.

 

[djcolts]

I really believe that the Colts will likely take a WR in round 1 (the combination of need and the way this draft is set up is why I say that) - so I'd be cautious about Gonzalez.

 

[gianmarco]

--Gonzalez is not a physical specimen and doesn't have top notch physical skills. His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

Gonzalez Combine Numbers:4.44 40

38" vert

4.08 short shuttle

6.54 3 cone

Those aren't numbers that get a guy in the top 10 picks, but he's a very very good athlete, that combination of speed, explosion, and quicks is NFL starting quality without a doubt.

You're absolutely right. I didn't realize his combine #'s were that good. Thanks

 

[JamesTheScot]

A solid compliment to Wayne and a Top 3 QB is nothing to sneeze at.

Last year Marvin had 107 targets, Gonzo had 79.

Gonzo put up 57-664-4 on that workload.

Just simply starting by checking his reception % (57/79 - a bit high at 72%, much like Royal at 71%). Average is 60-65%.

Neither Royal nor Gonzo had big YPC (Gonzo 8.4, Royal 7.6) so a high reception % isn't surprising.

Taking Marvin's role and assuming similar targets but maybe a 2/3 catch percentage and a slight uptick to 12.5 YPC and you can easily see how he can get 70-75 catches on 105-115 targets and rack up 900-ish yards and 6-7 TDs.

Clark is a threat to steal targets, but if you assume he goes as the new WR3, that's 79 targets to take in that offense.

Peyton's averaged 313 targets to WRs / season for the last 3 years. That's a lot of Wayne / Gonzo love for 09.

This is an interesting take.My concern is whether he actually steps into the position/routes in the different formations that Marvin ran. Or does Wayne do that and Gonzalez steps into Wayne's former position/routes.

I think we too often think WR1 is a literal position rather than meaning just the most productive/talented WR on the team.

No question that Marvin had tailed off, but was he even playing the same position he had been all those years and was he still running the same routes?

I'm not familiar enough with the subtleties of the Colts O to know.

No question Gonzalez has upside, but is there a chance they like him in the routes he's been running and put someone else into Marvin's spot in the formations? Without knowing for sure, I think this could be one of those situations where the conventional wisdom looks at this on paper and then over-values the guy.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

--Gonzalez is not a physical specimen and doesn't have top notch physical skills. His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

Gonzalez Combine Numbers:4.44 40

38" vert

4.08 short shuttle

6.54 3 cone

Those aren't numbers that get a guy in the top 10 picks, but he's a very very good athlete, that combination of speed, explosion, and quicks is NFL starting quality without a doubt.

You're absolutely right. I didn't realize his combine #'s were that good. Thanks

I don't watch many Colts games, but of the one's that I've seen, it doesn't seem like he plays that fast. I've always felt he was more of a possession guy. Perfectly willing to admit I could be wrong here. Colts homers, or people who watch the Colts a lot?ETA: Steve Smith (NYG) combine that same year:

4.44 40

38" vert

4.19 short shuttle

6.68 three cone

10' broad jump

 

[identikit]

A solid compliment to Wayne and a Top 3 QB is nothing to sneeze at.

Last year Marvin had 107 targets, Gonzo had 79.

Gonzo put up 57-664-4 on that workload.

Just simply starting by checking his reception % (57/79 - a bit high at 72%, much like Royal at 71%). Average is 60-65%.

Neither Royal nor Gonzo had big YPC (Gonzo 8.4, Royal 7.6) so a high reception % isn't surprising.

Taking Marvin's role and assuming similar targets but maybe a 2/3 catch percentage and a slight uptick to 12.5 YPC and you can easily see how he can get 70-75 catches on 105-115 targets and rack up 900-ish yards and 6-7 TDs.

Clark is a threat to steal targets, but if you assume he goes as the new WR3, that's 79 targets to take in that offense.

Peyton's averaged 313 targets to WRs / season for the last 3 years. That's a lot of Wayne / Gonzo love for 09.

This is an interesting take.My concern is whether he actually steps into the position/routes in the different formations that Marvin ran. Or does Wayne do that and Gonzalez steps into Wayne's former position/routes.

I think we too often think WR1 is a literal position rather than meaning just the most productive/talented WR on the team.

No question that Marvin had tailed off, but was he even playing the same position he had been all those years and was he still running the same routes?

I'm not familiar enough with the subtleties of the Colts O to know.

No question Gonzalez has upside, but is there a chance they like him in the routes he's been running and put someone else into Marvin's spot in the formations? Without knowing for sure, I think this could be one of those situations where the conventional wisdom looks at this on paper and then over-values the guy.

Anyone's guess at this point...

Each of the last couple years they've brought in/drafted WRs (first Roy Hall, then Pierre Garcon) that were possibly being groomed for something more substantial.

Who knows if they think these guys could be the guy on the outside or not.

As was noted before, with the relatively deep WR rookie class and their draft position, they could definitely go WR.

That would be the most telling re: Gonzo's future role, and to a lesser extent, how they feel about Hall and Garcon.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

A solid compliment to Wayne and a Top 3 QB is nothing to sneeze at.

Last year Marvin had 107 targets, Gonzo had 79.

Gonzo put up 57-664-4 on that workload.

Just simply starting by checking his reception % (57/79 - a bit high at 72%, much like Royal at 71%). Average is 60-65%.

Neither Royal nor Gonzo had big YPC (Gonzo 8.4, Royal 7.6) so a high reception % isn't surprising.

Taking Marvin's role and assuming similar targets but maybe a 2/3 catch percentage and a slight uptick to 12.5 YPC and you can easily see how he can get 70-75 catches on 105-115 targets and rack up 900-ish yards and 6-7 TDs.

Clark is a threat to steal targets, but if you assume he goes as the new WR3, that's 79 targets to take in that offense.

Peyton's averaged 313 targets to WRs / season for the last 3 years. That's a lot of Wayne / Gonzo love for 09.

This is an interesting take.My concern is whether he actually steps into the position/routes in the different formations that Marvin ran. Or does Wayne do that and Gonzalez steps into Wayne's former position/routes.

I think we too often think WR1 is a literal position rather than meaning just the most productive/talented WR on the team.

No question that Marvin had tailed off, but was he even playing the same position he had been all those years and was he still running the same routes?

I'm not familiar enough with the subtleties of the Colts O to know.

No question Gonzalez has upside, but is there a chance they like him in the routes he's been running and put someone else into Marvin's spot in the formations? Without knowing for sure, I think this could be one of those situations where the conventional wisdom looks at this on paper and then over-values the guy.

Anyone's guess at this point...

Each of the last couple years they've brought in/drafted WRs (first Roy Hall, then Pierre Garcon) that were possibly being groomed for something more substantial.

Who knows if they think these guys could be the guy on the outside or not.

As was noted before, with the relatively deep WR rookie class and their draft position, they could definitely go WR.

That would be the most telling re: Gonzo's future role, and to a lesser extent, how they feel about Hall and Garcon.

Regardless as to whether Gonzalez stays in the slot or not, he will still get more touches than whoever is playing wide. Players have to build trust with Manning. He was this way with both Wayne and Clark at the beginning of their career, and Gonzo now has Manning's trust IMO.

 

[gianmarco]

--Gonzalez is not a physical specimen and doesn't have top notch physical skills. His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

Gonzalez Combine Numbers:4.44 40

38" vert

4.08 short shuttle

6.54 3 cone

Those aren't numbers that get a guy in the top 10 picks, but he's a very very good athlete, that combination of speed, explosion, and quicks is NFL starting quality without a doubt.

You're absolutely right. I didn't realize his combine #'s were that good. Thanks

I don't watch many Colts games, but of the one's that I've seen, it doesn't seem like he plays that fast. I've always felt he was more of a possession guy. Perfectly willing to admit I could be wrong here. Colts homers, or people who watch the Colts a lot?ETA: Steve Smith (NYG) combine that same year:

4.44 40

38" vert

4.19 short shuttle

6.68 three cone

10' broad jump

That was what I was basing it on too. When watching him the last 2 years and even at OSU, it wasn't his physical ability that jumped out at me. Wasn't a burner or a big strong receiver, just had very good skills, ran good routes, and overall had good fundamentals. I was pretty surprised at seeing those combine #'s. I've seen him play a good bit but I think I'm gonna need to go back and reevaluate and see if there's something I'm missing.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Regardless as to whether Gonzalez stays in the slot or not, he will still get more touches than whoever is playing wide. Players have to build trust with Manning. He was this way with both Wayne and Clark at the beginning of their career, and Gonzo now has Manning's trust IMO.

Judging by how often Peyton went to Gonzalez on third down this year, I think he has Manning's trust.

 

[jwb]

His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

I personally think 57 catches in year two is pretty good, no matter what type of WR he is. Like I mentioned earlier, I think we're all a little spoiled and want that big breakout right away. He got 57 catches in his second year playing behind Wayne and Marvin - 20 more than his rookie year. I'll take that as nice progress. And while Marvin's skills have declined, he's still got a huge history with Manning - he was going to play, and get targets, no matter what. I like AGonz to have a nice breakout year. I wish I owned him in more leagues (just 1 currently).

 

[TaxMan]

Regardless as to whether Gonzalez stays in the slot or not, he will still get more touches than whoever is playing wide. Players have to build trust with Manning. He was this way with both Wayne and Clark at the beginning of their career, and Gonzo now has Manning's trust IMO.

Judging by how often Peyton went to Gonzalez on third down this year, I think he has Manning's trust.

I think that's certain, that Gonzalez has Manning's trust, but is that good enough for him to get 135-140 targets in this offense to get 78+ receptions from here on out? I'm not so sure. If he doesnt play outside, I doubt he gets that many looks in this offense.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I think a big thing people may be missing is that depending on how the WR positions shake out, Gonzalez will be playing against the #2 corner, instead of the nickel corners like he has been.

Gonzalez versus a nickel DB is a good matchup.

Gonzalez versus the #2 or even #1 DB is not as good, and that may hinder him.

 

[zed2283]

That was what I was basing it on too. When watching him the last 2 years and even at OSU, it wasn't his physical ability that jumped out at me. Wasn't a burner or a big strong receiver, just had very good skills, ran good routes, and overall had good fundamentals. I was pretty surprised at seeing those combine #'s. I've seen him play a good bit but I think I'm gonna need to go back and reevaluate and see if there's something I'm missing.

I seem to remember a buzz at OSU that Gonzalez was as fast or faster than Ginn. Obviously that didn't pan out in the 40, but he was pretty darn fast. So I wouldn't worry about that if I were you guys.I think the biggest negative from a fantasy perspective is simply his ADP/asking price. I agree that he will be overvalued now, but it's because his owners feel there's a lot of potential there. I know I'm glad I have him.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

The stat that sticks out to me Gonzales wasn;t even being used this year for a streach of games. Only 2 to 4 plays a game he was on the field. He still almost doubled his rookie production when Harrison was out a good part of that year. I feel a double in production is comeing at worst assumeing he wins the full time job and stays healthy.

114-1308-8 double over this year would put him up there in top 15 receivers. low wr-1, hi wr-2 status. Keep in mind he is moveing to Waynes position and Wayne moveing to Harrisons.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Would be nice to have Gonzo right now. You'd better hope he was already on your roster as he won't be had cheap at this point. And he was covited in '08'.

Dallas Clark should also have another good-great season...

And I'm watching for the next WR recruit. Someone will be coming in.... Should be a nice upside potential grab. Not many QB's can make 3 FF worth WR's in the NFL. Manning is one of them.

 

[buck naked]

His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

I personally think 57 catches in year two is pretty good, no matter what type of WR he is. Like I mentioned earlier, I think we're all a little spoiled and want that big breakout right away. He got 57 catches in his second year playing behind Wayne and Marvin - 20 more than his rookie year. I'll take that as nice progress. And while Marvin's skills have declined, he's still got a huge history with Manning - he was going to play, and get targets, no matter what. I like AGonz to have a nice breakout year. I wish I owned him in more leagues (just 1 currently).

Also, remember that Reggie Wayne took a few years before he was up to speed with Manning also. Here are his first 4 years:2001 IND 27 rec 345 yds 12.8 0 2002 IND 49 rec 716 yds 14.6 4 tds2003 IND 68 rec 838 yds 12.3 7 tds2004 IND 77 rec 1210 yds 15.7 12 tds

 

[TaxMan]

His game is more predicated on how refined he was coming out. IMO, those types of WR's usually do better earlier on and he had a great chance to step up in his 2nd year and didn't really do so.

I personally think 57 catches in year two is pretty good, no matter what type of WR he is. Like I mentioned earlier, I think we're all a little spoiled and want that big breakout right away. He got 57 catches in his second year playing behind Wayne and Marvin - 20 more than his rookie year. I'll take that as nice progress. And while Marvin's skills have declined, he's still got a huge history with Manning - he was going to play, and get targets, no matter what. I like AGonz to have a nice breakout year. I wish I owned him in more leagues (just 1 currently).

Also, remember that Reggie Wayne took a few years before he was up to speed with Manning also. Here are his first 4 years:2001 IND 27 rec 345 yds 12.8 0 2002 IND 49 rec 716 yds 14.6 4 tds2003 IND 68 rec 838 yds 12.3 7 tds2004 IND 77 rec 1210 yds 15.7 12 tds

2003 Wayne's 3rd year - he had 107 targets, Marvin had 140.2004 Wayne had 115 targets, compared to Marvin's 1402005 Wayne had 122, Marvin 132,I think Dallas Clark and Gonzalez will roughly have the same amount of targets moving forward in the next 2-3 years, somewhere around 100-115, while Wayne will get 130+At 65% catch rate, 65-75 rec, 900-1050 yds. This is all assuming Gonzo takes over as WR2 in that offense as the other outside WR opposite Wayne. Now we'll see if they stick Gonzo at the slot and make Garcon split out wide or some other WR - now that changes all the projections for Gonzalez.

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]