Anti-Measurables Manifesto (1 Viewer)

[Bob_Magaw]

from next install of ETTG... i'm not in the habit of posting subscriber content before it appears ( ), but since it is just an excerpt (& if and in case it gives some IDP owners a different take as we approach WW pick up and trade moratoriums in many leagues)... a holiday present...

DON'T BE A SLAVE TO MEASURABLES

Size and speed can be overrated. Don't get me wrong, you should familiarize yourself with arcana such as triangle numbers and explosiveness measures like Combine drills. But ultimately... you are looking for football players. NFL front offices and fantasy warrooms alike would miss out on elite, blue chip talents ala Steve Smith if they set their scouting criteria within too narrow a band (or on irrelevant or the WRONG criteria). Perception is selective, in both individuals and organizations. The gateways and filters everybody employs to render intelligible the sheer volume of the data firehose involved in tracking the entire league (ansd entailed changes organizationally, in coaching staff, personnell, etc.) and incoming draft classes necessitates this. But if thresholds are too constrained, potentially pivotal and critically important information can elude us. Some types of errors are committed by having a piece of information or opportunity come our way and failing to appreciate or understand it. But at least we are given the chance to evaluate it. If we consciously program our thought processes to ignore certain forms of information, we aren't even given the chance to make judements and decisions on potentially future stud prospects like Steve Smith if they are too small or too slow. Don't be too restrictive in the types of information you process. There may be branching points in a team's history where we could look back and say that making one decision instead of another could cause the future to fork off into entirely different pathways and directions (like the difference between winning and losing). Let it at least be a conscious one... like "the road less travelled" by Robert Frost. Master measurables (and expand your repertoire of comp player case studies where they are relevant and where they AREN'T)... so they don't master you.

 

[redman]

Why do you hate the Raiders, Bob?

 

[Rovers]

I subitted something along these lines in the free lance article contest, but as it relates to FF drafts. One can crunch numbers and analyze data until the cows come home, but often gut feel is something based on a cumulative digesting of the data that shouldn't be ignored. After all, that is how any opinion is formulated when it's all said and done. Relying solely on hard cold facts can be a mistake, even more so when an NFL team enters it's player evaluation for the draft. Fast times in the forty don't always translate to on the field football speed. I based my decision to draft Brandon Marshall in much the same way.... whether or not that turns out OK remains to be seen....

 

[Rozelle]

I'm one who doesn't put alot of stock in measurables. I'm looking at the intangables. Drafting well rounded, good motor, good charactor, instinctive guys, who are ... as Bob said, football players has been good to me.

One can crunch numbers and analyze data until the cows come home, but often gut feel is something based on a cumulative digesting of the data that shouldn't be ignored. After all, that is how any opinion is formulated when it's all said and done.

Good Point Rovers

 

[stevegamer]

I haven't really been bruned on the D side of the ball just using my gut, and I am a believer in that you need some baseline of measurables to succeed.

However, as a fan of Sam Mills & Steve Largent knows, that baseline can be darn tricky to find, as they are too small/slow/whatever.

The guys who tend to intrigue me are guys like Elvis on DEN, who have a ton of productivity plus some storng measurables, but are missing "X" which is a supposed requirement. Another guy like this was Darren Sproles.

I've been trying to guage what guys who are missing one thing do have. If it's crucial, like cathcing for a WR - sorry, I won't be drafting you. If it's something like size or 40-speed for a WR, I will investigate further.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Cool discussion.

I like to refer to this part of player evaluation as football measurables. The raw numbers are important -- the league is just too big, too fast, and too strong to ignore poor 40 times, poor bench reps, and poor size. If a player is lacking in one measurable, they better have superior measurables elsewhere or ridiculous instincts to make up for the headstart they're giving the competition. But, as has been mentioned, the waiver wire is littered with pretty players who couldn't hack it in real time. Insert poster child Mike Mamula here.

I've focused on a list of buzz words that fill up scouting reports that can help differentiate the Anquan Boldins from the Bryant Westbrooks and Charles Rogers and the London Fletchers from the Dwayne Rudds. Route running and separation skill are often better predictors of success than size and 40 time for a wideout. Fluidity of hips, strong hands, and football instincts more important than numbers to a linebacker. Vision and decisiveness for a back. That "gut feeling" you sometimes get from watching film and highlights comes from seeing football measurables in action.

Pretty players don't always make football players. I don't think you can ignore the Cover Girl numbers in every case, but I agree, the application of them in football terms and situations is more important.

 

[Rozelle]

I haven't really been bruned on the D side of the ball just using my gut, and I am a believer in that you need some baseline of measurables to succeed.However, as a fan of Sam Mills & Steve Largent knows, that baseline can be darn tricky to find, as they are too small/slow/whatever.The guys who tend to intrigue me are guys like Elvis on DEN, who have a ton of productivity plus some storng measurables, but are missing "X" which is a supposed requirement. Another guy like this was Darren Sproles.I've been trying to guage what guys who are missing one thing do have. If it's crucial, like cathcing for a WR - sorry, I won't be drafting you. If it's something like size or 40-speed for a WR, I will investigate further.

Well ... you can't totally disreguard measurables. You just need to look beyond.

 

[WhoDat]

Good stuff.

I wish I had more time to comment today but I will try and loop back around.

Initially, my feeling is that someone can look very sleek and sexy in shorts, t shirt and track shoes at the Combine or a Pro Day. They can chart off the map and have every desired physical and or mental attritbute possible. Conversely, their game tape might tell a completely different story.

1. Game tape does not lie. Ever.

If you have enough film and enough time, then you can determine what or who you have in a player. Some teams are smart enough to realize and or remember that maxim and others are not. Some teams realize the beauty is skin deep and others do not.

 

[Rovers]

Just to clarify, I wasn't saying that "gut feel" for any given player means to ignore the measurables, data, numbers and stats will always be very important, no doubt. But I've watched some FF'ers use them exclusively, while disregarding the unmeasurables. Some balance between the two things seems to work best for me.

I was roundly ridiculed for overpaying for Chester Taylor (dynasty league) before the 2005 season, for instance. There weren't many measurables to suport why I wanted to aquire him, other than I liked what I saw of him in the limited playing time he did get at Balt, and I knew he would be an NFL FA after 2005. That was one time I allowed my "gut feel" to make my decision. I also had J Lewis, so it made even more sense at the time to me, but it has worked out as well as I could have hoped so far. I drafted Brandon Marshall based on what I saw in the Shrine game.

I've also seen "gut feel" picks burn people..... seeing how the top five RB's got drafted in my dynasty leagues last year. The guy in front of me took L White over Maroney. I also liked White, but was more than thrilled I landed Maroney. Better team (NE), better situation, better measurables.

In watching my Jets this year, I don't think drafting for character guys can ever be ignored by any competant NFL staff anymore.... see Cincy. Immeasurables....

 

[redman]

I think you have to use all of your tools and know what their limitations are. Those tools consist of actual in-game performance and evaluation (whether by you or by professional scouts), their measurables during combines and workouts, and then reports about their character and personality. You then also have to pay attention to what situation they land in in the NFL, and how that scheme will use their talents.

Ideally, you can find people who have good marks in all of those areas, or at least don't have bad marks in the first three areas, and from there you have to evaluate how they'll be used in the NFL.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Good posting Bob. Almost finished with a great book called The Draft by Pete Williams that tracks a year in the NFL scouting/drafting world. The two main players they follow are Fred Gibson and Chris Canty. The author makes several mentions of how hard Canty works at coming back from a knee injury and then a eye injury, while Gibson seems to have a lot of talent and upside and measurables and be a good guy, but just doesn't have the work ethic. Where are they now? Canty is starting for Dallas and I believe Gibson is out of the league. Coincidence? I doubt it.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

nice additions upthread... thanx...

a classic case study for me was lofa tatupu... to small, too slow... he shouldn't have made it, but he has telepathic instincts, and is a genius at studying tendencies and sniffing out where the ball is going, & can react to what his eyes tells his brain tells his body seemingly faster than 99% of the defenders out there (not to compare him to singletary in any other way, but his instincts, reflexes, first step and ability to ALWAYS be flowing to the ball and meet ball carriers BEFORE they got to the hole was uncanny, and apart from probable differences in his nervous system, were partly attributable to his being a student of the game)...

BTW, i wasn't always so high on him, which was for me a lesson in a few things... not basing TOO much on too narrow a sample of highlights/film... and also on having multiple sources...

in the espn draft coverage in 05, they showed a highlight where it looked like a player was going off tackle or little wider, and he sort of lunged & sort of grabbed with one arm on far shoulder, and sort of swung him around & down eventually, but it wasn't most flattering picture, and made him look a little light & weak, slow to the spot, not an intimidating hitter... frankly, i found the footage a little disturbing and troubling (in retrospect, i had overgeneralized... BADLY)...

LATER, i was reading about some of his attributes... how smart he was, what a great leader, how he had overcome lack of protoptypical measurables with some of aforementioned traits... on & on... it got me to re-evaluate him...

sometimes in my own case there is a sort of scouting laziness occurs where you think you know a player & you stop looking at them... the volume of information we have to know in scouting sort of demands this... we can't study EVERYBODY, all the time... so we have to use shortcuts... if you see something that appears to be an irredeemable flaw, the sooner you spot it the sooner you can move on & study other players (sometimes it seems like my bull#### detector has a hair trigger )...

& that is OK... but...

i have confidence in my "scouting eye", and think i have a sense of whether a RB has "IT" based on how they move in the open field... but i also try & stay humble & modest & realize there is a lot i don't know... that helps to remain open to the possibility that i may not understand some players as well as i think i do, & stay open to the possibility they could break out & surprise me...

if i had made snap judgement about tatupu & not given myself the latitude to change my mind about a player based on new input, new outlook, reframing of important criteria, i would have been late to the party & failed to appreciate him more like i do now in time to write about him in the pre-season...

 

[Biabreakable]

I generaly find it more difficult to get a read on the intangibles of defensive players because really there is a lot less press on them than players who play on the offensive side of the ball.

I do pay attention to buzz words such as "work ethic" "insticts" and "intellegence" as those are clues to players that have an edge over others for reasons other than thier measurables.

It is really difficult to use trackable stats from college such as tackles or interceptions to compare players because of the great disparity in talent level on college teams and the same thing goes when watching the games. Often times a defender on a college team will look like a star because he is much better than the other players on thier defense but when that same player gets to the pro level they are only average compared to other defenders.

Some lack of measurables cannot be overcome. For example Rod Davis MLB drafted by the Vikings. This guy was a star in college had a ton of tackles at that level. Scouting reports glowed about his instincts and work ethic and he made the Vikings team because of it. But he has 4.8 or worse speed and despite a void of Linebackers on the Vikings he never could become a starter because he is just simply too slow for the game at the NFL level. It almost seems to me that he holds a roster spot so he can be a teacher and leader by example to other Viking LBers who were drafted more based on thier measurables and have struggled because they lacked proper technique and instincts. Coaching seems to have really turned this group around now. Somthing they lacked in the Tice years.

So while I see this as a good topic and definitly a factor that should not be overlooked. I also think it is somthing that is better applied to offensive players that we have more information about.

One other thing about this that works against IDPs. The smarter more instincive defenders in the NFL get more respect from opposing Qbs. A good IDP performer is often not neccessarily the best defender on thier team. But rather the defender that offenses take advantage of. Or who plays the position in the defense that makes more plays. When you can combine a player who has peek measurables with the intangibles that is what makes a star. Lavar Arrington has great measurables (or at least he did pre-injury) but never became a great IDP. Antonio Pierce has flourished although not highly regarded as a rookie. I will let someone more familiar with his history tell his story. But Urlacher is the combination of both. Even though I have seen him get owned many times.

Defense works more as a team than the individual efforts of offensive players as well. Just this Sunday the Panthers wrecked havoc on the Lambs without thier star LT Pace. Yet thier best defender Peppers had a big zero on the stat sheet for the game. I am sure the Lambs did things schematicly to double Peppers as he is a player that needs to be accounted for. And the Panthers defense was able to do things to take advantage of the Lambs weakness on the left side with blitzes and floods knowing that Peppers would still be applying pressure on the right that would funnel the ball into thier blitzes instead of away from them.

So all in all I think intangibles are more significant and applicable to offensive players than players on defense. But I would be interested to know how this would be applied on the defensive side of the ball. One player recently that I targeted because of intangibles was Stewart Shweigert. He has performed decently but still not up to the level that I had hoped yet given his opportunity with the Raiders.

 

[onionsack]

a classic case study for me was lofa tatupu... to small, too slow... he shouldn't have made it...

I don't think I've ever "whiffed" on a player as badly as I did on Tatupu. Too small, too slow - absolutely - but for me strike three was the fact that he had two absolute STUDS playing in front of him at DT: Mike Patterson (1.31 to Philly) and Shaun Cody (2.05 to Detroit). With offensive lines busy trying to account for those guys, Tatupu was left unattended for a clean shot at the ball carrier. Or at least that's how I assumed the plot was being played out, based on all of the accounts I'd read. The one USC game I saw seemed to corroborate those accounts. I was convinced that the defensive tackles had made Tatupu, and not the other way around. I was equally convinced that at his size, with his tools, there wasn't a chance in hell that Tatupu would be able to fight through trash on a consistent basis at the NFL level - at least not at the MIKE position. When Seattle took him at 2.13 in the 05 draft I laughed out loud, and was fairly confident he'd prove to be one of the worst "reaches" in the draft. I dined on crow for quite some time after that. I'm still not convinced that there's a lesson to be learned here, though; Lofa is probably just one of those rare players who would thrive even if you removed both of his arms. But it's definitely a nice reminder to pay close attention to those players who came up an inch short, a pound light and a yard slow at the combine, but delivered the goods when it mattered...on the field.

 

[stevegamer]

a classic case study for me was lofa tatupu... to small, too slow... he shouldn't have made it...

I don't think I've ever "whiffed" on a player as badly as I did on Tatupu. Too small, too slow - absolutely - but for me strike three was the fact that he had two absolute STUDS playing in front of him at DT: Mike Patterson (1.31 to Philly) and Shaun Cody (2.05 to Detroit). With offensive lines busy trying to account for those guys, Tatupu was left unattended for a clean shot at the ball carrier. Or at least that's how I assumed the plot was being played out, based on all of the accounts I'd read. The one USC game I saw seemed to corroborate those accounts. I was convinced that the defensive tackles had made Tatupu, and not the other way around. I was equally convinced that at his size, with his tools, there wasn't a chance in hell that Tatupu would be able to fight through trash on a consistent basis at the NFL level - at least not at the MIKE position. When Seattle took him at 2.13 in the 05 draft I laughed out loud, and was fairly confident he'd prove to be one of the worst "reaches" in the draft. I dined on crow for quite some time after that. I'm still not convinced that there's a lesson to be learned here, though; Lofa is probably just one of those rare players who would thrive even if you removed both of his arms. But it's definitely a nice reminder to pay close attention to those players who came up an inch short, a pound light and a yard slow at the combine, but delivered the goods when it mattered...on the field.

I'm a Seahwks fan, and I did the same thing. I thought they could've gotten him later, and he was a reach. I had a bit of hope he could be a Mills/Thomas type of player, but I didn't know why they took him in the 2nd, even needing LB's. Now I know, and I'm not complaining.I agree that we have to just accept when a guy has deficiencies in multiple measurables and he succeeds that we understand why we missed him, and that we can't scrutinize all the guys who lack multiple things (in theory) on the NFL level.

 

[PIK95]

from next install of ETTG... i'm not in the habit of posting subscriber content before it appears ( ), but since it is just an excerpt (& if and in case it gives some IDP owners a different take as we approach WW pick up and trade moratoriums in many leagues)... a holiday present...DON'T BE A SLAVE TO MEASURABLESSize and speed can be overrated. Don't get me wrong, you should familiarize yourself with arcana such as triangle numbers and explosiveness measures like Combine drills. But ultimately... you are looking for football players. NFL front offices and fantasy warrooms alike would miss out on elite, blue chip talents ala Steve Smith if they set their scouting criteria within too narrow a band (or on irrelevant or the WRONG criteria). Perception is selective, in both individuals and organizations. The gateways and filters everybody employs to render intelligible the sheer volume of the data firehose involved in tracking the entire league (ansd entailed changes organizationally, in coaching staff, personnell, etc.) and incoming draft classes necessitates this. But if thresholds are too constrained, potentially pivotal and critically important information can elude us. Some types of errors are committed by having a piece of information or opportunity come our way and failing to appreciate or understand it. But at least we are given the chance to evaluate it. If we consciously program our thought processes to ignore certain forms of information, we aren't even given the chance to make judements and decisions on potentially future stud prospects like Steve Smith if they are too small or too slow. Don't be too restrictive in the types of information you process. There may be branching points in a team's history where we could look back and say that making one decision instead of another could cause the future to fork off into entirely different pathways and directions (like the difference between winning and losing). Let it at least be a conscious one... like "the road less travelled" by Robert Frost. Master measurables (and expand your repertoire of comp player case studies where they are relevant and where they AREN'T)... so they don't master you.

Yawn....... Is this about football or something else, lol. Good Write, actually.

 

[redman]

a classic case study for me was lofa tatupu... to small, too slow... he shouldn't have made it...

I don't think I've ever "whiffed" on a player as badly as I did on Tatupu. Too small, too slow - absolutely - but for me strike three was the fact that he had two absolute STUDS playing in front of him at DT: Mike Patterson (1.31 to Philly) and Shaun Cody (2.05 to Detroit). With offensive lines busy trying to account for those guys, Tatupu was left unattended for a clean shot at the ball carrier. Or at least that's how I assumed the plot was being played out, based on all of the accounts I'd read. The one USC game I saw seemed to corroborate those accounts. I was convinced that the defensive tackles had made Tatupu, and not the other way around. I was equally convinced that at his size, with his tools, there wasn't a chance in hell that Tatupu would be able to fight through trash on a consistent basis at the NFL level - at least not at the MIKE position. When Seattle took him at 2.13 in the 05 draft I laughed out loud, and was fairly confident he'd prove to be one of the worst "reaches" in the draft. I dined on crow for quite some time after that. I'm still not convinced that there's a lesson to be learned here, though; Lofa is probably just one of those rare players who would thrive even if you removed both of his arms. But it's definitely a nice reminder to pay close attention to those players who came up an inch short, a pound light and a yard slow at the combine, but delivered the goods when it mattered...on the field.

Your thinking was much like mine.