Anticipating Runs (1 Viewer)

[Callas Disregard]

I'm in a highly competitive league with a draft coming up this week and this year I decided to take a look at the drafts from 2005-07 to see if I could identify any trends as to where position runs occur. Now I've done that, and although each draft is a little different, there are some clear general trends. But now that I've identified those trends, I'm not sure exactly what to do with this information, so I'm looking for people's thoughts on how I should use this info for my draft strategy. This is an unusual league: 10 teams, but we start 2 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR/TE, 1 PK, and 2 DT. We also award 0.5 PPR.

NOTE: I use Draft Dominator for this draft, and I assume I could probably translate my analysis into the DD configuration for this league, but I'm also uncertain how to do that.

Here are the trends:

Rounds 1-3: Very RB heavy. Round 1 always sees either 9 or 10 RBs come off the board. But rounds 2 and 3 also see at least 5 or 6 RBs drafted in each round.

Rounds 4-8: More than 50% of the players drafted are WR/TE (one position). Usually round 4 or 5 is where the run on WRs really starts. When it ends varies.

Rounds 7-10: Somewhere in here a QB run occurs. It could occur in rounds 7-8 or it could occur in round 10. There's usually about 8-10 QBs already off the board when it starts, so most teams are picking a QB2 (remember we start 2 QB). There are about 17-18 QBs off the board when this run ends, meaning you could be stuck with lower-tier QBs if you don't have both your starters after this run.

Rounds 11-13: This is where most people take their first defense (again, we start 2).

So, if I want to draft based on anticipating runs, that means doing something like taking a WR in round 3. Problem there is, I still haven't filled out my starting RBs and I could be left with someone like FatDale White as an every-week starter. In the past 2 years, I have drafted only RBs in rounds 1-4. (With starting 3 RBs, my RB4 will have at least THREE bye week starts and probably several more due to injury, so I expect my RB4 to start half the season.) Would you deviate from this strategy to try to beat the WR run? Would you grab a QB or two in rounds 7-8 to try to beat the QB run? Or would you let it go and grab backup RBs and WRs, with the intention of going with a QBBC using weak QBs when they have weak matchups? And knowing that you have to start 2 defenses, would you grab a top 3 defense in round 11? Or are defenses too unpredictable to draft one that early when you know you have to start 9 players every week at the "Big 3" positions?

 

[FantasyTrader]

I'm not sure what your three year study is telling you here that you didn't already *probably* know. A couple of general observations:

* This is a great year to deviate from your traditional RB/RB/RB/RB strategy. Of course you need to let the draft come to you but in the start two format - I wouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger on Manning/Brees/Romo.

* From historical trends in this league it looks like you could do well for yourself by spreading the wealth through the first 8-9 rounds - RB, QB, RB, WR, WR, RB, QB, WR etc.

But beyond that, your questions can't be answered. They are completely draft dependant. But with your format (start 2 QB) I'd go in with a WIDE open mind of where value will be presented to me. If you've historically gone RBRBRBRB the first 4 rounds there's no way you could have been drafting BPA. If you already know what you're doing the first 5 or 6 rounds of any draft before it starts, you've given up a significant edge before Tomlinson is even off the board.

 

[Callas Disregard]

If you've historically gone RBRBRBRB the first 4 rounds there's no way you could have been drafting BPA. If you already know what you're doing the first 5 or 6 rounds of any draft before it starts, you've given up a significant edge before Tomlinson is even off the board.

Actually, I've used Draft Dominator and it tells me to go RB-RB-RB-RB. The RBs just seem to end up being of much higher value when you have to start three every week. But I think because I've used ADP for predicting other team's picks on DD, the software hasn't given me accurate predictions on dropoff values in between my picks. I completely agree that I should think in wide open terms, I'm just thinking about how I can anticipate; shark wisdom says it's better to lead a run than to follow one.Also, even though we start 2 QB, the scoring system downgrades QBs: 1 pt per 25 yards, 4 pts per TD, and no penalty for INTs.

 

[Judge Smails]

If you've historically gone RBRBRBRB the first 4 rounds there's no way you could have been drafting BPA. If you already know what you're doing the first 5 or 6 rounds of any draft before it starts, you've given up a significant edge before Tomlinson is even off the board.

Actually, I've used Draft Dominator and it tells me to go RB-RB-RB-RB. The RBs just seem to end up being of much higher value when you have to start three every week. But I think because I've used ADP for predicting other team's picks on DD, the software hasn't given me accurate predictions on dropoff values in between my picks. I completely agree that I should think in wide open terms, I'm just thinking about how I can anticipate; shark wisdom says it's better to lead a run than to follow one.Also, even though we start 2 QB, the scoring system downgrades QBs: 1 pt per 25 yards, 4 pts per TD, and no penalty for INTs.

No penalty for INT's is of course a huge upgrade for QB's, especially those not named Brady or Garrard. I've researched runs in our league as well. And they start, just like everything else, when owners feel scarcity will be at a position if they don't move now. This year, it happened late first round after Brady was selected #4 and Manning #7. Romo then went 12, Brees 13. RB's dominated early picks in the 2nd round, which meant surprisingly that everyone not named Moss and Owens fell to mid/late round 2 (WR's). Then everybody drafted by need for RB's/WR's until the next waves of QB's started going off the board. Once Cutler/McNabb went people started racing to get a serviceable QB. Last position run was with Defenses, which score highly in our league. Once the Vikings were selected, the door was open and probably 7-8 went the next 2 rounds. You can feel runs - won't have to research them too much.

 

[obxlegends]

Starting runs is also a very useful tool. You need a WR, but you're stuck within the middle tier. You snag a top TE and hope a runs starts where you can grab your middle tiered WR with your next pick.

Be proactive.

 

[kbreaker]

Starting runs is also a very useful tool. You need a WR, but you're stuck within the middle tier. You snag a top TE and hope a runs starts where you can grab your middle tiered WR with your next pick.Be proactive.

I did this w/ QBs in the 9th. I knew that 2 owners were planning to run QBBC. 9 QBs were off the board, I grabbed McNabb as my QB2, then posted on the chat board "Here go the backup QBs". 8 QBs went over the next 2 rounds, allowing me to maintain good mid-WR value & grab my top rated D/ST.

 

[Saint]

Actually, if you are using historical info, this is where a combo of the DD and ZVBD works out well. Here's the link on ZVBD if you are not familiar with it.

http://www.footballguys.com/zarzycki_zvbd.htm