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Any other Cinci D owners getting worried? (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
First of all, there are the injuries: Hall, Mays and Atkins, all lost for the year within the past two weeks.

Second, I noticed an interesting trend yesterday. Here are Cinci's home/away splits, using standard fantasy defense scoring:

Home

Pitt: 10

GB: 18

NE: 15

NYJ: 24

Average home fantasy points: 16.75

Remaining home games: Cle (Wk 11), Ind (14), Min (16), Bal (17)

Away

Chi: 2

Cle: 6

Buf: 7

Det: 2

Miami: 6

Average away points: 4.75

Remaining away games: Bal (10), SD (13), Pitt (15)

So if your league ends at Week 16, you only have three home dates remaining, at least one which (Indy) is a tough matchup. They also have a bye in Week 12. Of the away matchups, one is appealing and two could be pretty tough.

I eyeballed some of the other top defenses (KC, Seattle, SF, Carolina) and didn't see anything near the split that Cinci has (although I owned Seattle last year, and they definitely had a similar dynamic going on).

Still not sure what to make of this. I had previously resolved to just ride them for the rest of the season, but part of me is wondering if they're just another defense, and I should pick up Arizona for the next two weeks (Hou/@Jax).

 
Yeah, I am dropping them after this week in the only league I have them. I picked them up before week 8 in this league (we redrafted with 2 keepers pre-week 8 - fiasco, never again) as I have been doing a lot of rotating Ds this year, so one good week and one bad.

 
Well, unfortunately, Justin Blackmon just resolved my dilemma. Used the roster spot to pick up Arizona, and will most likely start them the next two weeks. Then I'll reevaluate how Cinci is doing heading into their bye.

After the bye, the only really juicy matchup for Cinci is Week 16 vs MINN. If you go purely by the matchup, @Pitt in Week 15 should also be good, and if you go by the home/away split theory, Week 14 vs Indy should be good. But I don't know if I'd trust either of those.

 
Nervous as well. And noticed the home/away discrepancy a week or two ago.

With the loss of Geno Atkins, I'm debating jumping ship and searching for a late year DST gem (a la the Bengals last season).

 
Just to backtrack on my original post a bit, it is possible to overthink the home-away split. Last season I noticed a similar discrepancy with Seattle, which led to me somehow talking myself into sitting them the week after their 40-point explosion vs Arizona because they were playing on the road at Buffalo (even though the game was in Toronto, so technically not even a home game for the Bills). Instead, I wisely started Detroit @ Arizona. :violin:

The only benefit was that it provided me with a new rule for my fantasy manifesto: Always take the good D with the bad matchup over the bad D with the good one.

(All that said, I'm still wondering just how good of a D Cinci has at this point.)

 
I think their secondary was always average, even though Hall was their best guy, so I don't think those losses are that big of deal. The one that stings badly is Geno, who was one of the best players in the NFL.

Does anyone know much about their reserves?

 
To be fair, CAR plays NO twice during the fantasy playoffs. And, after this week KC has a Bye and DEN twice over the next 3 weeks.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
What do you guys think about the Bills DST going forward? They've been fairly solid against the teams they are supposed to do well against (other than CLE when Travis Benjamin took a punt to the house and the 3rd string QB came in and threw a pick 6).

They have a pretty cake schedule going forward. The two teams that will probably cause the most trouble (other than Patriots in Week 17, which shouldn't factor into fantasy) are @PIT and ATL, and both of those teams have O-Line issues, which the Bills should feast on.

9. KC

10. @PIT

11. NYJ

12. BYE

13. ATL

14. @TB

15. @JAC

16. MIA

17. @NE

 
U should be extremely concerned. The Atkins loss is HUGE. Whether u cut them or not depends on your league and other options, but don't expect much from here on out IMO.

 
Real-world, I think Cincy may now miss the playoffs, by the way. You can't lose 3 of your defensive starters like this and be fine.

 
nb009 said:
What do you guys think about the Bills DST going forward? They've been fairly solid against the teams they are supposed to do well against (other than CLE when Travis Benjamin took a punt to the house and the 3rd string QB came in and threw a pick 6).

They have a pretty cake schedule going forward. The two teams that will probably cause the most trouble (other than Patriots in Week 17, which shouldn't factor into fantasy) are @PIT and ATL, and both of those teams have O-Line issues, which the Bills should feast on.

9. KC

10. @PIT

11. NYJ

12. BYE

13. ATL

14. @TB

15. @JAC

16. MIA

17. @NE
Click to expand...
I like what BUF is doing real-world. They are very underrated right now. They play tough and they have some weapons. They are moving in the right direction.

 
nobiz said:
nb009 said:
What do you guys think about the Bills DST going forward? They've been fairly solid against the teams they are supposed to do well against (other than CLE when Travis Benjamin took a punt to the house and the 3rd string QB came in and threw a pick 6).

They have a pretty cake schedule going forward. The two teams that will probably cause the most trouble (other than Patriots in Week 17, which shouldn't factor into fantasy) are @PIT and ATL, and both of those teams have O-Line issues, which the Bills should feast on.

9. KC

10. @PIT

11. NYJ

12. BYE

13. ATL

14. @TB

15. @JAC

16. MIA

17. @NE
Click to expand...
I like what BUF is doing real-world. They are very underrated right now. They play tough and they have some weapons. They are moving in the right direction.
Click to expand...
The matchup this week is also a saucy matchup. The Chiefs don't score a lot of points, and the combo of the Bills pass rush and the Chiefs leaky offensive line will mean a lot of sacks.

 
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