Anybody buying on Andre Johnson? (1 Viewer)

[xenon]

I thought I read or heard somewhere that he's lost a step? and if I recall, hasn't he dealt with injuries the last two years?

Any TX homers with insight?

He seems to be a 3rd round WR This year and available amongst Cruz, Fitz, V Jackson and I am not sure how I would rank them. IN this group, I am leaning towards cruz but can somebody argue a case for AJ or for that fact, any other having to choose from amongst this group?

 

[JuniorNB]

AJ actually got better in the second half of last season. I think he still has another year or two of being a semi-stud. The Texans never seem to work much red zone work around him, which is surprising because of his size and jumping ability, but I can see another big yardage year with 7-9 TDs. If Foster isn't healthy, we may see even more.

 

[silentcoach]

He is not elite, but still a number 1 wr when given the targets. I'd buy for redraft.

Over Cruz imo. Vjackson and Fitzgerald is good company to be with and I would not mind having either, although Vjackson scares me because of Freeman.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He put up the most yardage of any 31 year old WR in history and the 2nd most yardage of any receiver older than 30 last year -- behind only Jerry Rice's 33 year old season (aka the #1 yardage season of all time until Calvin last year).

At 32 anything is possible, but the odds are good that he's got multiple years left.

 

[GregR]

He's still a WR1 but not near the very top anymore. Hopkins could cut into his touches some, though if Foster misses time that could add some back in.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He is not elite

Receivers with three or more 1500+ yard seasons:

Jerry Rice (4)

Andre Johnson (3)

Marvin Harrison (3)

Calvin Johnson (2)

(I'm giving Calvin the benefit of the doubt)

 

[silentcoach]

He is not elite

Receivers with three or more 1500+ yard seasons:

Jerry Rice (4)

Andre Johnson (3)

Marvin Harrison (3)

Calvin Johnson (2)

(I'm giving Calvin the benefit of the doubt)

Sorry, not elite for fantasy purposes, anymore. I do not question what he has done in the past. I still view him as a very solid number 1 wr in ppr leagues.

**And I am only referring to fantasy purposes.

 

[Ghost Rider]

AJ actually got better in the second half of last season.

That was only because Houston's defense fell apart in the second half of the season, and the Texans found themselves having to throw like crazy again. But if the Texans defense returns to form, AJ is likely to put up numbers similar to 2011 (when he was healthy) and the first nine games of 2012 again. To prorate it, since he only played 7 games in '11, in '11 and '12 before the defense fell apart, he put up 79-1,089-4 in those 16 games. Very solid numbers, but worthy of his current ADP? Probably not. So, when projecting how good you think Johnson will be this year, you have to take into account how good you think the Texans defense will be.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

He is not elite

Receivers with three or more 1500+ yard seasons:

Jerry Rice (4)

Andre Johnson (3)

Marvin Harrison (3)

Calvin Johnson (2)

(I'm giving Calvin the benefit of the doubt)

Sorry, not elite for fantasy purposes, anymore. I do not question what he has done in the past. I still view him as a solid number 1 wr in ppr leagues.

**And I am only referring to fantasy purposes.

Getting open and catching the ball even though the entire stadium knows it's coming your way is pretty hard. And he caught 70%(!) of his targets last year.

I look at all that -- catching 70% of his targets and putting up almost 1600 yards -- and I see a guy who's still at the top of his game.

Agree he's not top five anymore, but only because there's a glut of amazing WRs at the top today. Calvin, Thomas, Dez, Green, Marshall, Fitzgerald. It's a golden age at the position.

 

[silentcoach]

He is not elite

Receivers with three or more 1500+ yard seasons:

Jerry Rice (4)

Andre Johnson (3)

Marvin Harrison (3)

Calvin Johnson (2)

(I'm giving Calvin the benefit of the doubt)

Sorry, not elite for fantasy purposes, anymore. I do not question what he has done in the past. I still view him as a solid number 1 wr in ppr leagues.

**And I am only referring to fantasy purposes.

Getting open and catching the ball even though the entire stadium knows it's coming your way is pretty hard. And he caught 70%(!) of his targets last year.

I look at all that -- catching 70% of his targets and putting up almost 1600 yards -- and I see a guy who's still at the top of his game.

Agree he's not top five anymore, but only because there's a glut of amazing WRs at the top today. Calvin, Thomas, Dez, Green, Marshall, Fitzgerald. It's a golden age at the position.

Exactly. Good post.

 

[lod01]

He easily has 4 more good years ahead of him. He keeps himself in great football shape. If TO can put up 1000 yards at 35, so can Andre if he wants to. He is limited by Kubiak's v-gina. Put him with Cutler and he hits 1700+ yards.

I did sell him for Leveon Bell this year however.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think the point about considering the Texans defense is a relevant point. But stout defense theory only holds water if the running game is firing on all cylinders as well. Concerns over Arian Foster's back and leg pain and the strong running game isn't a given anymore. Ed Reed's signing was considered a shot in the arm for the defense, but now that news has dampened down a bit. All in all, I just don't envision the strong run/strong defense type Texans team that we saw in 2011.

Because of the strength of schedule, I think Houston will get into a lot of shootouts this year. AJ will be putting up a fine season. I'm drafting him with confidence, at the top of his WR tier, ahead of Cruz and some others mentioned here already.

 

[jmo87usc]

I'm a buyer, but at the right price. More so if you are looking to compete now and not in build mode. You can't expect top 10 production, but you can safely assume top 20 if healthy. I wouldn't give anything too crazy since he's 32, but I also wouldn't be completely scared off since he's only 32....if ya know what I mean.

As an example, I gave Keenan Allen and a 2014 1st rounder(6-10 overall range) for him. More than I was hoping to give, but in the grand scheme of things, gimme the sure thing now while my team is built to win.

 

[GregR]

AJ actually got better in the second half of last season.

That was only because Houston's defense fell apart in the second half of the season, and the Texans found themselves having to throw like crazy again. But if the Texans defense returns to form, AJ is likely to put up numbers similar to 2011 (when he was healthy) and the first nine games of 2012 again. To prorate it, since he only played 7 games in '11, in '11 and '12 before the defense fell apart, he put up 79-1,089-4 in those 16 games. Very solid numbers, but worthy of his current ADP? Probably not. So, when projecting how good you think Johnson will be this year, you have to take into account how good you think the Texans defense will be.

A few comments...

There were a pair of back to back overtime games that stand out on their own from the rest as he went off huge, 23 receptions and 461 yards in the two, and Schaub threw the ball 48 and 55 times which eclipses his normal game marks for him that year.

Outside of the overtime games though, it wasn't Houston throwing the ball more in the second half. They threw it about the same amount, 31.1 times per game the first half, and 32 times per game in the second half not counting the overtime games.

So it was more something about Johnson or the distribution of the ball. His catches per game were 5.25 in the first 8 games, 7.8 in regulation length games in the second half of the season. His targets were 7.4 per game in the first half, but then they spike to 11.2 in the second half (again not counting overtime games).

So outside of the overtime games, it was more a matter of ball distribution than it was throwing it more. His targets went up by 50%. His catch percent was nearly identical, and his yards per reception dropped a bit in the 2nd half but he caught more balls to make up for it.

Edit to add: Not saying the defense didn't play a role either, they definitely did drop off as they lost Cushing, half the corners to injury and Johnathan Joseph played the last half of the year injured. Just was addressing the how much Houston threw the ball part.

 

[shader]

He's not elite? Did you guys see the numbers he put up last year?

 

[silentcoach]

He's not elite? Did you guys see the numbers he put up last year?

Yes, elite is only relative compared to where other wrs are doing.

While he had a good season, he still was not a top 5 wr in my league.

It all depends on where you draw your cutoff.

Touchdowns have always been his limitations--4 last year.

Also remember that he had two overtime games that helped pad his stats .

 

[icehouse]

FWIW, I took him at the beginning of the 3/4 turn in redraft on Saturday. I passed on Cruz and Cobb for him.

 

[jurb26]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

 

[footballguy#1]

Top 10, but not enough TDs to get into top 5. He's still a beast.

 

[silentcoach]

The point is we are BUYING on AJ, which was the point of the thread.

If you think he is top 5, then you are buying more, and are getting great value since his adp is much lower.

AJ, we love you!

 

[Shutout]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

I know there was a long post by Russell up above tossing out this game, that game, marking some down for OT, etc, but if you watch the games, it really has little to do with whether Shaub throws 24 times a game or 44. It has everything to do with the fact that AJ is THE targer that Shaub likes to go to early and often.

Go look at how early AJ gets involved. It is almost ALWAYS in the first 1-2 passing plays and they look for him. So, so what if they only throw 24 times? That typically means that AJ got his early and the Texans are salting away a win.

It would be concerning if the Texans threw sparingly and AJ was never targeted in some of the games but that is never the case. He is targeted frequently and that's really all you can ask for (an elite WR that gets the priority in the passing game). The rest is just the luck on any given Sunday.

 

[silentcoach]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

I know there was a long post by Russell up above tossing out this game, that game, marking some down for OT, etc, but if you watch the games, it really has little to do with whether Shaub throws 24 times a game or 44. It has everything to do with the fact that AJ is THE targer that Shaub likes to go to early and often.

Go look at how early AJ gets involved. It is almost ALWAYS in the first 1-2 passing plays and they look for him. So, so what if they only throw 24 times? That typically means that AJ got his early and the Texans are salting away a win.

It would be concerning if the Texans threw sparingly and AJ was never targeted in some of the games but that is never the case. He is targeted frequently and that's really all you can ask for (an elite WR that gets the priority in the passing game). The rest is just the luck on any given Sunday.

Because we are talking fantasy football and we have to compare him to the other wrs.

His stats last year could have been number 1 in ppr leagues if the OTHER wrs above him were NOT in the league. However, since they ARE in the league, AJ is not considered elite (my definition) for fantasy football purposes only.

Now, if you think he is top 5 for 2013, that is a different discussion and I cannot argue against your reasoning.

Arguing if he is elite or not, is just arguing on our projections--it gets us no where.

Based on my rankings he is in tier 2. Close to elite (tier 1) but not quite.

I'm buying on AJ. Let's not nitpick.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Some of the pushback is from PPR guys I'm sure. He was #5 in most of mine last year. In a five-man mix for #3-#7.

 

[jurb26]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

How is it ridiculous? I don't think you understand the term elite as it pertains to football, or fantasy. Navy Seals are what % of the actual Navy? They are considered the ELITE section of the Navy and of the overall military because they represent such a small percentage of it. Even still, that group of Seals is going to have a pecking order amongst it. Is every Seal the same? The same logic can be used in the NFL, WRs and for fantasy.AJ is still a very good WR. How many guys would you rank ahead of him though! For me it's; Calvin, Green, Jones, Marshall, Thomas and Fitz. This is just on current ability. There is no way I'd rank Fitz higher in fantasy because of his situation in ARZ.

 

[Air Stich]

He's in the strong WR1 tier in PPR, just after the guys who go in the 2nd round. The nice thing about AJ is that he seems to always go after Fitz, Cobb, Cruz, and White in my PPR leagues. He's going around WR10, and I'm buying at that price if I need a WR. I've seen him last until the 4th round in a PPR league that was scarfing up RBs.

 

[xenon]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

How is it ridiculous? I don't think you understand the term elite as it pertains to football, or fantasy. Navy Seals are what % of the actual Navy? They are considered the ELITE section of the Navy and of the overall military because they represent such a small percentage of it. Even still, that group of Seals is going to have a pecking order amongst it. Is every Seal the same? The same logic can be used in the NFL, WRs and for fantasy.AJ is still a very good WR. How many guys would you rank ahead of him though! For me it's; Calvin, Green, Jones, Marshall, Thomas and Fitz. This is just on current ability. There is no way I'd rank Fitz higher in fantasy because of his situation in ARZ.

Shouldn't Fitz be primed for a solid year? Palmer definitley an upgrade but what benefit of having Arians? Look at Wayne last year with Arians vs the year before. Granted, I think Luck is a better QB than Palmer....

 

[haterade]

Yes am buying. His production was loony toons good last year... same exact situation... wth are people worried about?

 

[Shutout]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

How is it ridiculous? I don't think you understand the term elite as it pertains to football, or fantasy. Navy Seals are what % of the actual Navy? They are considered the ELITE section of the Navy and of the overall military because they represent such a small percentage of it. Even still, that group of Seals is going to have a pecking order amongst it. Is every Seal the same? The same logic can be used in the NFL, WRs and for fantasy.AJ is still a very good WR. How many guys would you rank ahead of him though! For me it's; Calvin, Green, Jones, Marshall, Thomas and Fitz. This is just on current ability. There is no way I'd rank Fitz higher in fantasy because of his situation in ARZ.

I think I understand it pretty well. By definition, elite is

Noun

A group of people considered to be the best in a particular society or category, esp. because of their power, talent, or wealth.

A size of letter in typewriting, with 12 characters to the inch (about 4.7 to the centimeter).

AJ clearly fits that definition. We don't have to pick nits. My only point is AJ is a lot better than someone just casually saying he isn't elite. He is clearly one of the best wrs in the game

 

[silentcoach]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

How is it ridiculous? I don't think you understand the term elite as it pertains to football, or fantasy. Navy Seals are what % of the actual Navy? They are considered the ELITE section of the Navy and of the overall military because they represent such a small percentage of it. Even still, that group of Seals is going to have a pecking order amongst it. Is every Seal the same? The same logic can be used in the NFL, WRs and for fantasy.AJ is still a very good WR. How many guys would you rank ahead of him though! For me it's; Calvin, Green, Jones, Marshall, Thomas and Fitz. This is just on current ability. There is no way I'd rank Fitz higher in fantasy because of his situation in ARZ.

I think I understand it pretty well. By definition, elite is

Noun

A group of people considered to be the best in a particular society or category, esp. because of their power, talent, or wealth.

A size of letter in typewriting, with 12 characters to the inch (about 4.7 to the centimeter).

AJ clearly fits that definition. We don't have to pick nits. My only point is AJ is a lot better than someone just casually saying he isn't elite. He is clearly one of the best wrs in the game

it all comes down to your projections--not some definition. Again, we are talking FANTASY elite, not REAL LIFE football elite. If you think he can finish top 4 or 5 (or pick whatever your cutoff is) , then yes, he is elite to YOU. I would not argue against you thinking this.

But there is no need to discount others who say he is a solid number 1 ppr wr, but not elite just because they differ from your opinion.

I have him tier 2, what is the big deal.

I do not typically call players in tier 2 elite for fantasy purposes.

If you have him as tier 1, then that is okay, I understand why you feel he should be elite.

 

[TwinTurbo]

It still amazes me that Charles Rogers was drafted ahead of AJ. And that AJ is still putting up these kinds of numbers 10 years later.

I don't think most people remember how fast he was either. He ran a 10.29 100m which is sick. That would beat personal bests from some of the fastest guys in the NFL like Chris Johnson. Deion ran it in 10.21. If you think about it, AJ was one of the first Calvin Johnson type of elite WRs with his size/speed/abilities. I think he probably has at least 2 good years left and could lead the league in rec yds although he won't score many TDs.

 

[DropKick]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

I know there was a long post by Russell up above tossing out this game, that game, marking some down for OT, etc, but if you watch the games, it really has little to do with whether Shaub throws 24 times a game or 44. It has everything to do with the fact that AJ is THE targer that Shaub likes to go to early and often.

Go look at how early AJ gets involved. It is almost ALWAYS in the first 1-2 passing plays and they look for him. So, so what if they only throw 24 times? That typically means that AJ got his early and the Texans are salting away a win.

It would be concerning if the Texans threw sparingly and AJ was never targeted in some of the games but that is never the case. He is targeted frequently and that's really all you can ask for (an elite WR that gets the priority in the passing game). The rest is just the luck on any given Sunday.

Because we are talking fantasy football and we have to compare him to the other wrs.

His stats last year could have been number 1 in ppr leagues if the OTHER wrs above him were NOT in the league. However, since they ARE in the league, AJ is not considered elite (my definition) for fantasy football purposes only.

Now, if you think he is top 5 for 2013, that is a different discussion and I cannot argue against your reasoning.

Arguing if he is elite or not, is just arguing on our projections--it gets us no where.

Based on my rankings he is in tier 2. Close to elite (tier 1) but not quite.

I'm buying on AJ. Let's not nitpick.

That's a considerable amount of arguing and nitpicking for someone who doesn't want to argue or nitpick.

AJ was 4th in my PPR last year. That's a comparison with every other WR in the league. What is your elite cut off, top 2?

 

[silentcoach]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

I know there was a long post by Russell up above tossing out this game, that game, marking some down for OT, etc, but if you watch the games, it really has little to do with whether Shaub throws 24 times a game or 44. It has everything to do with the fact that AJ is THE targer that Shaub likes to go to early and often.

Go look at how early AJ gets involved. It is almost ALWAYS in the first 1-2 passing plays and they look for him. So, so what if they only throw 24 times? That typically means that AJ got his early and the Texans are salting away a win.

It would be concerning if the Texans threw sparingly and AJ was never targeted in some of the games but that is never the case. He is targeted frequently and that's really all you can ask for (an elite WR that gets the priority in the passing game). The rest is just the luck on any given Sunday.

Because we are talking fantasy football and we have to compare him to the other wrs.

His stats last year could have been number 1 in ppr leagues if the OTHER wrs above him were NOT in the league. However, since they ARE in the league, AJ is not considered elite (my definition) for fantasy football purposes only.

Now, if you think he is top 5 for 2013, that is a different discussion and I cannot argue against your reasoning.

Arguing if he is elite or not, is just arguing on our projections--it gets us no where.

Based on my rankings he is in tier 2. Close to elite (tier 1) but not quite.

I'm buying on AJ. Let's not nitpick.

That's a considerable amount of arguing and nitpicking for someone who doesn't want to argue or nitpick.

AJ was 4th in my PPR last year. That's a comparison with every other WR in the league. What is your elite cut off, top 2?

Because I am in the business of predicting FUTURE output, not going on last year. But to answer your question I have AJ at wr 8 this year. If wr 8 is ELITE to you, then I guess he is elite. Based on my projections he is tier 2. Do you call players in tier 2 elite? If so, again, he is elite, then.

What are YOUR projections. What WR do you have him at compared to others? Is he elite to you? Tier 1 to you? If he is elite to you, then good for you, i don't see the point of arguing over this.

I already mentioned that arguing over projections is useless.

Having AJ at WR 8 and calling him a number 1 wr is still respect. Heck, it is more than what his current ADP is!

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What are YOUR projections.

    1 Calvin Johnson   21.1 ppg2 A.J. Green       18.93 Dez Bryant       18.74 Demaryius Thomas 18.35 Brandon Marshall 18.16 Andre Johnson    18.07 Julio Jones      17.38 Larry Fitzgerald 17.0

Would probably bump Jones and Fitz just because they aren't 32, but if you get him after #8 or later he's a steal IMO.

 

[rascal]

had him ranked #9, got him and White on the 3/4 turn to solidify my WR core.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

AJ actually got better in the second half of last season.

That was only because Houston's defense fell apart in the second half of the season, and the Texans found themselves having to throw like crazy again. But if the Texans defense returns to form, AJ is likely to put up numbers similar to 2011 (when he was healthy) and the first nine games of 2012 again. To prorate it, since he only played 7 games in '11, in '11 and '12 before the defense fell apart, he put up 79-1,089-4 in those 16 games. Very solid numbers, but worthy of his current ADP? Probably not. So, when projecting how good you think Johnson will be this year, you have to take into account how good you think the Texans defense will be.

A few comments...

There were a pair of back to back overtime games that stand out on their own from the rest as he went off huge, 23 receptions and 461 yards in the two, and Schaub threw the ball 48 and 55 times which eclipses his normal game marks for him that year.

Outside of the overtime games though, it wasn't Houston throwing the ball more in the second half. They threw it about the same amount, 31.1 times per game the first half, and 32 times per game in the second half not counting the overtime games.

So it was more something about Johnson or the distribution of the ball. His catches per game were 5.25 in the first 8 games, 7.8 in regulation length games in the second half of the season. His targets were 7.4 per game in the first half, but then they spike to 11.2 in the second half (again not counting overtime games).

So outside of the overtime games, it was more a matter of ball distribution than it was throwing it more. His targets went up by 50%. His catch percent was nearly identical, and his yards per reception dropped a bit in the 2nd half but he caught more balls to make up for it.

Edit to add: Not saying the defense didn't play a role either, they definitely did drop off as they lost Cushing, half the corners to injury and Johnathan Joseph played the last half of the year injured. Just was addressing the how much Houston threw the ball part.

Johnson was on a pitch count early in the season (wk 2 - 6/7) due to some soft tissue damage (I believe it was a groin or hammy). If you watched those games, you could clearly see that he was not healthy and continued to play through it but was not right until after the bye week. During the string of weeks he only had 4 - 6 targets, he barely practiced and spent his days rehabbing. It shouldn't be a surprise that his targets went up as he got healthy and could start to separate from defenders again.

 

[Ebaker5]

I took AJ/Fitz on the 3/4 turn 3.7/4.4

 

[Short Corner]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

How is it ridiculous? I don't think you understand the term elite as it pertains to football, or fantasy. Navy Seals are what % of the actual Navy? They are considered the ELITE section of the Navy and of the overall military because they represent such a small percentage of it. Even still, that group of Seals is going to have a pecking order amongst it. Is every Seal the same? The same logic can be used in the NFL, WRs and for fantasy.AJ is still a very good WR. How many guys would you rank ahead of him though! For me it's; Calvin, Green, Jones, Marshall, Thomas and Fitz. This is just on current ability. There is no way I'd rank Fitz higher in fantasy because of his situation in ARZ.

I think I understand it pretty well. By definition, elite is

Noun

A group of people considered to be the best in a particular society or category, esp. because of their power, talent, or wealth.

A size of letter in typewriting, with 12 characters to the inch (about 4.7 to the centimeter).

AJ clearly fits that definition. We don't have to pick nits. My only point is AJ is a lot better than someone just casually saying he isn't elite. He is clearly one of the best wrs in the game

it all comes down to your projections--not some definition. Again, we are talking FANTASY elite, not REAL LIFE football elite. If you think he can finish top 4 or 5 (or pick whatever your cutoff is) , then yes, he is elite to YOU. I would not argue against you thinking this.

But there is no need to discount others who say he is a solid number 1 ppr wr, but not elite just because they differ from your opinion.

I have him tier 2, what is the big deal.

I do not typically call players in tier 2 elite for fantasy purposes.

If you have him as tier 1, then that is okay, I understand why you feel he should be elite.

I have him in tier 3 (1-Calvin, 2-WRs 2-6) which places him in the bottom half of WR1s. I don't consider that elite.

NBot buying only because of my draft position (1 and 2) but can see late 3rd/early 4th value depending on your league specs.

 

[FF Ninja]

it all comes down to your projections--not some definition. Again, we are talking FANTASY elite, not REAL LIFE football elite. If you think he can finish top 4 or 5 (or pick whatever your cutoff is) , then yes, he is elite to YOU. I would not argue against you thinking this.

But there is no need to discount others who say he is a solid number 1 ppr wr, but not elite just because they differ from your opinion.

I have him tier 2, what is the big deal.

I do not typically call players in tier 2 elite for fantasy purposes.

If you have him as tier 1, then that is okay, I understand why you feel he should be elite.

It just depends which one you are talking about. He's clearly still real life elite. I don't think that's up for debate. The only thing holding him back from being fantasy elite is touchdowns. Houston never passes for a lot of touchdowns*. AJ catches an elite % of their passing touchdowns, but the pie is just too small. But touchdowns are the most volatile stat, so if he should catch a (long overdue) break this year, then top 5 is easily achieved. Give this guy a dozen touchdowns and he's in. He's been #1 and #2 in non-PPR with only 8 and 9 touchdowns.

Last year, if he had 8 TDs, he'd be #4. 9 TDs would've been #3. Historically, he's a good bet for 8 TDs. Last year was the outlier. But he is a year older and they did get a new WR. I can understand people putting him in tier 2, but I can understand people keeping him in tier one with an expected 100/1500/8 stat line.

*29 is the most Hou has passed for in a season, but it is usually in the low 20s. For his career, the average is probably around 20 if you take into account the David Carr years.

 

[jmo87usc]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

How is it ridiculous? I don't think you understand the term elite as it pertains to football, or fantasy. Navy Seals are what % of the actual Navy? They are considered the ELITE section of the Navy and of the overall military because they represent such a small percentage of it. Even still, that group of Seals is going to have a pecking order amongst it. Is every Seal the same? The same logic can be used in the NFL, WRs and for fantasy.AJ is still a very good WR. How many guys would you rank ahead of him though! For me it's; Calvin, Green, Jones, Marshall, Thomas and Fitz. This is just on current ability. There is no way I'd rank Fitz higher in fantasy because of his situation in ARZ.

I think I understand it pretty well. By definition, elite is

Noun

A group of people considered to be the best in a particular society or category, esp. because of their power, talent, or wealth.

A size of letter in typewriting, with 12 characters to the inch (about 4.7 to the centimeter).

AJ clearly fits that definition. We don't have to pick nits. My only point is AJ is a lot better than someone just casually saying he isn't elite. He is clearly one of the best wrs in the game

I love the fact that you included this part of the definition. Made me laugh out loud.

I think arguing elite versus not elite is pretty moot. Unless you can clearly define and agree on what percentage of the group counts as elite or what criteria they must meet, or at what age elite status expires. Since that is not possible, you either have to say only Calvin is elite, or you have to allow questionable guys into the elite status.

As far as I'm concerned, Andre has been consistently at the top(when healthy) for the last 10 years. AJ Green, Dez, Julio, D Thomas all seem to be headed for those type of careers, but haven't done it for more than a year or two yet. If you include them, you include Andre. He's 32. Not 45. After his first healthy season out of the top 10, I'll agree that he is no longer elite.

 

[xenon]

What the word from training camp on how AJ is looking?

 

[Shutout]

What the word from training camp on how AJ is looking?

Completely healthy and hungry as he is aware the window is closing. About as much as you can ask for in this mine field of a pre-season.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I would suck his #### to get him at 4.08. I mine I would drive to his house.

 

[DropKick]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

I know there was a long post by Russell up above tossing out this game, that game, marking some down for OT, etc, but if you watch the games, it really has little to do with whether Shaub throws 24 times a game or 44. It has everything to do with the fact that AJ is THE targer that Shaub likes to go to early and often.

Go look at how early AJ gets involved. It is almost ALWAYS in the first 1-2 passing plays and they look for him. So, so what if they only throw 24 times? That typically means that AJ got his early and the Texans are salting away a win.

It would be concerning if the Texans threw sparingly and AJ was never targeted in some of the games but that is never the case. He is targeted frequently and that's really all you can ask for (an elite WR that gets the priority in the passing game). The rest is just the luck on any given Sunday.

Because we are talking fantasy football and we have to compare him to the other wrs.

His stats last year could have been number 1 in ppr leagues if the OTHER wrs above him were NOT in the league. However, since they ARE in the league, AJ is not considered elite (my definition) for fantasy football purposes only.

Now, if you think he is top 5 for 2013, that is a different discussion and I cannot argue against your reasoning.

Arguing if he is elite or not, is just arguing on our projections--it gets us no where.

Based on my rankings he is in tier 2. Close to elite (tier 1) but not quite.

I'm buying on AJ. Let's not nitpick.

That's a considerable amount of arguing and nitpicking for someone who doesn't want to argue or nitpick.

AJ was 4th in my PPR last year. That's a comparison with every other WR in the league. What is your elite cut off, top 2?

Because I am in the business of predicting FUTURE output, not going on last year. But to answer your question I have AJ at wr 8 this year. If wr 8 is ELITE to you, then I guess he is elite. Based on my projections he is tier 2. Do you call players in tier 2 elite? If so, again, he is elite, then.

What are YOUR projections. What WR do you have him at compared to others? Is he elite to you? Tier 1 to you? If he is elite to you, then good for you, i don't see the point of arguing over this.

I already mentioned that arguing over projections is useless.

Having AJ at WR 8 and calling him a number 1 wr is still respect. Heck, it is more than what his current ADP is!

You were the one who brought up stats from last year. And, over the last 10 weeks of the season, he was the #3 WR overall - behind only Calvin and Marshall.

As far as "tier two", why should I care about how your tiers? It is a subjective exercise. I could have a tiny top tier and define it as the WRs I'm willing to take in the first round. This might be just one or two guys. Then, yes, the second tier contains elite players.

I'm not hung up on semantics. AJ is getting older and he has some injury risk. He doesn't get in the end zone as much as you would like but that could change. But, he is also a guy capable of putting up very good numbers on a very consistent basis and having monster games that can carry the week. Not many guys do that... That's good enough for me.

 

[silentcoach]

AJ is not elite. There can't be a slew of elite WRs, it defeats the purpose of the elite title. AJ is however still a very good WR and a safe bet to finish in the top 10 IMO. There are 5 or 6 guys I'd love to grab before him, my tier 1, but he's at the top of tier 2.

That's ridiculous. If you are elite, you are. Simple as that. If you go running in the morning with a group of 12 Navy Seals, which ones aren't elite? If the man has the talent, he has and AJ does.

I know there was a long post by Russell up above tossing out this game, that game, marking some down for OT, etc, but if you watch the games, it really has little to do with whether Shaub throws 24 times a game or 44. It has everything to do with the fact that AJ is THE targer that Shaub likes to go to early and often.

Go look at how early AJ gets involved. It is almost ALWAYS in the first 1-2 passing plays and they look for him. So, so what if they only throw 24 times? That typically means that AJ got his early and the Texans are salting away a win.

It would be concerning if the Texans threw sparingly and AJ was never targeted in some of the games but that is never the case. He is targeted frequently and that's really all you can ask for (an elite WR that gets the priority in the passing game). The rest is just the luck on any given Sunday.

Because we are talking fantasy football and we have to compare him to the other wrs.

His stats last year could have been number 1 in ppr leagues if the OTHER wrs above him were NOT in the league. However, since they ARE in the league, AJ is not considered elite (my definition) for fantasy football purposes only.

Now, if you think he is top 5 for 2013, that is a different discussion and I cannot argue against your reasoning.

Arguing if he is elite or not, is just arguing on our projections--it gets us no where.

Based on my rankings he is in tier 2. Close to elite (tier 1) but not quite.

I'm buying on AJ. Let's not nitpick.

That's a considerable amount of arguing and nitpicking for someone who doesn't want to argue or nitpick.

AJ was 4th in my PPR last year. That's a comparison with every other WR in the league. What is your elite cut off, top 2?

Because I am in the business of predicting FUTURE output, not going on last year. But to answer your question I have AJ at wr 8 this year. If wr 8 is ELITE to you, then I guess he is elite. Based on my projections he is tier 2. Do you call players in tier 2 elite? If so, again, he is elite, then.

What are YOUR projections. What WR do you have him at compared to others? Is he elite to you? Tier 1 to you? If he is elite to you, then good for you, i don't see the point of arguing over this.

I already mentioned that arguing over projections is useless.

Having AJ at WR 8 and calling him a number 1 wr is still respect. Heck, it is more than what his current ADP is!

You were the one who brought up stats from last year. And, over the last 10 weeks of the season, he was the #3 WR overall - behind only Calvin and Marshall.

As far as "tier two", why should I care about how your tiers? It is a subjective exercise. I could have a tiny top tier and define it as the WRs I'm willing to take in the first round. This might be just one or two guys. Then, yes, the second tier contains elite players.

I'm not hung up on semantics. AJ is getting older and he has some injury risk. He doesn't get in the end zone as much as you would like but that could change. But, he is also a guy capable of putting up very good numbers on a very consistent basis and having monster games that can carry the week. Not many guys do that... That's good enough for me.

My tier 1 contains 6 WRs for ppr purposes, but I am not sure how other people tier their players.

I understand that AJ may be top 5 for you, and I would not argue against that.

As for my definition of fantasy elite--efficiency per targets and some other mumbo jumbo math. So, I can see why we would have differing views on elite.

As for the thread--yes, I am buying on AJ just like you, but maybe at a slightly cheaper price.

 

[Ilov80s]

He is not elite

Receivers with three or more 1500+ yard seasons:

Jerry Rice (4)

Andre Johnson (3)

Marvin Harrison (3)

Calvin Johnson (2)

(I'm giving Calvin the benefit of the doubt)

Sorry, not elite for fantasy purposes, anymore. I do not question what he has done in the past. I still view him as a very solid number 1 wr in ppr leagues.**And I am only referring to fantasy purposes.

He had a 1500 yard season last year.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Not counting WRs that didn't score any points last year, there were 195 WRs that played in the NFL. Andre Johnson was 6/195 in my league. That's the top 5%. That's elite. If you want to count WRs that didn't score points, he is super upper tippity top elite.

 

[jamil]

He's 32 not 40. He's healthier coming into the season than he was last year. They will throw more once they figure out that they can't run as well as they want to. I think we're at that point of his career where people call him old for about 4 seasons until they're finally right.

 

[GregR]

I am not going to be surprised if his targets go down.

I don't think he's lost enough of a step to stop him from being top ten, even top 3 or 4. But I think Hopkins will be a legitimate second target that will lessen some of Schaub forcing it to AJ. But I don't know that Hopkins will be enough threat that teams would lessen coverage on AJ to shift it towards Hopkins all that much. Maybe not cheat quite as much as they would have with Kevin Walter, but they'll still focus on stopping AJ and the running game I imagine.

Actually, the possible return of Devier Posey could open things up a bit too. He was starting to look like a decent WR3 before his injury. He'll be awhile getting back to where he was, but is off PUP now.

 

[FF Ninja]

I would suck his #### to get him at 4.08. I mine I would drive to his house.

Speaking of his house, I noticed it was up for sale the other day. I think he's already moved out. All his cars were gone. Maybe he's finally moving to River Oaks...

 

[Shutout]

He's 32 not 40. He's healthier coming into the season than he was last year. They will throw more once they figure out that they can't run as well as they want to. I think we're at that point of his career where people call him old for about 4 seasons until they're finally right.

Yep. Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith have been old for about 3 years now and you see what that gets the haters..

People said Marvin Harrison was old. They said Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were old.

T.O. was old.

Roddy is getting old right now (and being seriously glossed over in the ADP department).

Some players are just really danged good NFL professionals that know what it takes to remain competitive and are not like others who just dwindle. Knowing the difference helps the goof FF owners know who to cut bait with and who to ride into the sunset with. We can't help those who have "Logan's Run" syndrome, but we be there to open up the homes for the old and crippled (and clear spots for our league titles).