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Anybody fear a sophomore slump for Odell? (1 Viewer)
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Footballguy
We here at the footballguys forums appreciate people sharing their oppinions on players and asking for those from others, however threads like these are really best left as posts in threads started long ago already about the player in question to avoid the clutter of dozens of people asking this exact question about dozens of other players. I would suggest looking at this thread still on the first page that you may have somehow overlooked before starting this thread.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/704335-odell-beckham-jr/
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/704335-odell-beckham-jr/
thatguythere
Footballguy
Very nicely said.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I do and I need him in my leagues. I can't pull data up but I will just go on instinct; I always pass on 2nd yr players in the 1st 2 rounds, more times than not they disappoint on their ADP. Now I do expect ODB to have atleast a top WR15 yr but not a top WR5
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Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Warrior
Footballguy
Only assuming the same things we all assume for Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, etc.You're assuming a lot.
thomastem
Footballguy
I do not assume Eli will throw to those guys at all.Only assuming the same things we all assume for Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, etc.You're assuming a lot.
The real question is whether he can handle stepped up defensive attention that teams will be putting on him. He wasn't too dazzling in the last preseason game.
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/odell-beckham-jr-victor-cruz-beckham-targeted-jags/story?id=33316102
Banger
Footballguy
The only thing I care about in the preseason with respect to him is that he stay healthy. His skills aren't disappearing. Like I've said in other posts...they have to try and find something that will slow him down. This isn't something new though...look at the Rams game from last year...they were doing the same thing and they have a much better defense in a real game than the Jags do and he went for 8-148-2.
Also, it's easy to target someone in the preseason becuase if you get beat by overplaying him and going for the body instead of the ball it doesn't matter because it doesn't count.
Again, let's not pretend that teams didn't try and cover him last year...after the Dallas game he caught no team by surprise. He was their only weapon and everyone knew he was getting the ball and they couldn't even slow him let alone stop him.
Didnt he handle stepped up defensive attention last year? Maybe after his first few games when he was still an unknown but come on. Your telling me that coaches were like, you know what lets wait until the offseason before we start to step up our scheme to stop him. These coaches live and breathe football 24-7 and when the teams had the Giants on their schedule last year, i can assure you that the coaches game planned the hell out of ODB and he still was unstoppable.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I fear the doctrine slump for Eli more than I fear the sophomore slump for Beckham.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Since 300 PPR points would be sort of a slump for him, yes, I predict a slump
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
He'll probably see less volume with a couple more weapons around him this year. I think he'll regress from his 25PPG(PPR) pace last year but still view him as a top end WR1 barring injury. I actually really want a piece of this passing game because I'm on board with Eli posting similar/slightly better #s in his 2nd year with McAdoo but it probably won't be OBJ. I kind of like Vereen and think Randle is good value at his current ADP.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Baby, it's not you that I don't trust...it's those other cats you hang around with, that I don't trust...
There's no denying that Beckham is possessed of marvelous physical tools, and seems to have the football smarts to go along with them.
I'm support the theory that opposing DC's have had an entire offseason of watching game film to dissect Beckham. I'm inclined to think that the impression they came away with was that Beckham is, indeed, relatively unstoppable.
So, opportunists that they are, it makes sense that they would choose to spend more time paying attention to the other end of the link, one Eli Manning. Eli is very stoppable, IMHO...
Plus, the Giants O-line is far worse than last year, with the Beasley injury and subsequent overhaul shift they've gone through. There are guys playing out of position, and guys starting that they made every effort to push into a bench role because they aren't good enough to start.
They've added the best pass-catching RB available - they haven't had this kind of receiving talent out of the backfield since Tiki Barber. IEven though Vereen might even be better in that aspect of his game, I don't think Vereen is going to steal targets from Beckham by design, but rather, circumstantially...and I think they're going to need him, because...
...I think we're going to see Eli running for his life, every time he drops back to pass. I don't think the Giants are going to be able to generate enough of a running threat to keep defenses honest, and they are going to bring some serious heat. I think when he has to run for his life, he's going to pout and wilt. I think Vereen is going to see an incredibly high # of targets...and yes, I think Beckham is going to slump. I think he puts up DeAndre Hopkins - Sammy Watkins ceiling, which, in my projections gives him middling WR2 #'s, and that makes him undraftable for me, based on ADP.
The Redskins and Cowboys may have two of the very worst pass defenses in football in 2015. The Eagles as an opponent, by the nature of their offense, allow for many offensive plays. If it wasn't for those 6 games, I'd project him lower.
There's no denying that Beckham is possessed of marvelous physical tools, and seems to have the football smarts to go along with them.
I'm support the theory that opposing DC's have had an entire offseason of watching game film to dissect Beckham. I'm inclined to think that the impression they came away with was that Beckham is, indeed, relatively unstoppable.
So, opportunists that they are, it makes sense that they would choose to spend more time paying attention to the other end of the link, one Eli Manning. Eli is very stoppable, IMHO...
Plus, the Giants O-line is far worse than last year, with the Beasley injury and subsequent overhaul shift they've gone through. There are guys playing out of position, and guys starting that they made every effort to push into a bench role because they aren't good enough to start.
They've added the best pass-catching RB available - they haven't had this kind of receiving talent out of the backfield since Tiki Barber. IEven though Vereen might even be better in that aspect of his game, I don't think Vereen is going to steal targets from Beckham by design, but rather, circumstantially...and I think they're going to need him, because...
...I think we're going to see Eli running for his life, every time he drops back to pass. I don't think the Giants are going to be able to generate enough of a running threat to keep defenses honest, and they are going to bring some serious heat. I think when he has to run for his life, he's going to pout and wilt. I think Vereen is going to see an incredibly high # of targets...and yes, I think Beckham is going to slump. I think he puts up DeAndre Hopkins - Sammy Watkins ceiling, which, in my projections gives him middling WR2 #'s, and that makes him undraftable for me, based on ADP.
The Redskins and Cowboys may have two of the very worst pass defenses in football in 2015. The Eagles as an opponent, by the nature of their offense, allow for many offensive plays. If it wasn't for those 6 games, I'd project him lower.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
No fear at all, have you seen him play before?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So how many points would be considered a slump?
Bucky86
Footballguy
If you own him. "He'll be fine. He's a stud, and defenses were focused on him already. Not worried."
If you don't own him. "Teams have spent the entire off-season studying tape to figure out how to limit him. He won't have it as easy this year as seen by his pre-season play so far."
If you don't own him. "Teams have spent the entire off-season studying tape to figure out how to limit him. He won't have it as easy this year as seen by his pre-season play so far."
nittanylion
Footballguy
Well, I'm all for keeping an open mind, and I'd love to move another player up into the premium tier of my rankings, so I'm willing to listen to any Beckham supporters who can post a fact-based counter to the statement I made in post #18: the Giants offensive line is a sieve. The Giants will not be able to run the ball well enough to prevent the defense from teeing off on Manning. Every time Eli drops back, he's going to be under heavy pressure. Eli is a legendary baby. He is going to be on the run on every dropback, and is not going to have time to look downfield and find Beckham before the dogs are all over him. He's going to get hit, he's going to get sacked, and he's very likely going to get hurt. When opposing defenses get physical with him, he pouts and wilts. Eli now has one of the best checkdown options in the NFL in Vereen, so he's got that going for him, but that's not good for Beckham either, simply because Vereen presents an awfully inviting target when Eli is running for his life?
This isn't a knock on Beckham, who's a physical specimen with what looks to be smarts and skills beyond his years. It is, however, an indictment of Eli Manning and the Giants' Offensive Line, which could be one of the worst pass blocking lines in the NFL this season.
I don't mean to sound coarse - it's just that I think it's being willfully ignorant to project big #'s for Beckham considering the grim circumstances surrounding the offense. Beckham may be the kind of WR that transcends poor QB play. All the great ones are...but he has to overcome a bad offensive line as well, and I just don't see how that's possible.
Just how is Eli going to get the ball to Beckham? Garbage time? I'm all ears...
This isn't a knock on Beckham, who's a physical specimen with what looks to be smarts and skills beyond his years. It is, however, an indictment of Eli Manning and the Giants' Offensive Line, which could be one of the worst pass blocking lines in the NFL this season.
I don't mean to sound coarse - it's just that I think it's being willfully ignorant to project big #'s for Beckham considering the grim circumstances surrounding the offense. Beckham may be the kind of WR that transcends poor QB play. All the great ones are...but he has to overcome a bad offensive line as well, and I just don't see how that's possible.
Just how is Eli going to get the ball to Beckham? Garbage time? I'm all ears...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Not worried about Beckham, more worried about the offensive line and Eli constantly getting pummeled. I usually like to have players on my fantasy team that are in a balanced offense and don't have to get garbage points all the time, but I feel like that is where the Giants are headed.
EBF
Footballguy
Isn't he a top 3 WR in redraft? No chance I take him that high, personally. I feel better with guys like Calvin, Demaryius, Brown, and Julio who have done it for several seasons. I don't think Beckham was a fluke, but in my experience chasing last year's numbers usually isn't the way to win in FF. Last year was last year and often times the guys who were red hot in one season struggle to match that in the following year. It's a new season and everyone will have had time to study Beckham and figure out new ways to limit him. A top 10 WR finish still seems very realistic, but I'm not treating him like a top 5-10 redraft pick, which is roughly his ADP if I remember correctly.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Not sure why people wouldn't think defenses would be more ready for him this season. People realize that defensive coordinators don't have unlimited time during the season to focus on a non-playoff team right?
This is the same thing that happens to running QBs who come in to the league. They have a massive breakout year and everyone goes overboard and the next season they seem to fall back down to earth.
I don't think Beckham will be a bust but I don't expect him to finish in the top 5. No way I am touching him at his Round 1 very early Round 2 price tag.
This is the same thing that happens to running QBs who come in to the league. They have a massive breakout year and everyone goes overboard and the next season they seem to fall back down to earth.
I don't think Beckham will be a bust but I don't expect him to finish in the top 5. No way I am touching him at his Round 1 very early Round 2 price tag.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yeesh, end of round 1 or early round 2? He wont make it there anyway, nor should he.
Who are your 13-14 players you take over him?
Rodgers, Luck
Lacy, Bell, AP, Charles, Anderson, Lynch, Forte
Julio, Thomas, Dez, Brown, Calvin, Cobb
Gronk
Toss up:
McCoy
Green, Hilton, Jeffery
Like I said he is going to regress and with likely a healthy Cruz your looking at a "steep" drop in Targets and Catches.
10 Targets/Gm (160 target pace - only 64 players have received this number of targets in NFL history)
7.6 Catches/Gm (122 catch pace - only 9 players have caught this many passes in a single season)
70% Catch Rate (20th best in NFL history - Cobb and Welker only two players with 100+ targets and 70+% catch rate in more than 1 season)
108.8 Yards/Gm (1741 yards pace - only 4 players have had over 1741 yards in a season, only 18 players had over 1600 yards in a season)
12 TDs (16 TD pace - only 17 players have had 16+ receiving TDs in a season)
I would expect something more in line:
90 on 140 for 1250 with 9 TDs
ghostguy123
Footballguy
We expect Odell to drastically regress, but not any of the 29-30 year old RBs to regress?
Alrighty.
And we all know he will regress. He isn't going to score 400 points. That doesn't mean he won't be worth a 1st round pick.
Alrighty.
And we all know he will regress. He isn't going to score 400 points. That doesn't mean he won't be worth a 1st round pick.
I expect 1/2 of those 1st round running backs to miss in the first round... That being said those RBs are in a group of which if they do hit I will be sitting in a GREAT spot.
Lacy, Forte, Bell - these are my top RBs on my board (I am sitting at the turn 1.12/2.01 though so I likely will be grabbing a WR/WR or WR/TE combo, know for a fact that Forte is going 1.04 in our league)
PS- If I am taking Charles, AP, Lynch, Anderson its because they are sitting there and I can flip them for more even before week 1 (IE: AP for Cobb + Ingram)
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'll take ODB over Forte in a heartbeat. Do people think Forte will repeat anywhere near the same number of catches?
The 12 spot is a GREAT spot to be in this year, as good as any year really.
The 12 spot is a GREAT spot to be in this year, as good as any year really.
Ya I really like the 12 spot
For Forte I don't know if 1.04 is the right spot for him but he is one of the safer bets of the top 10 RBs. I would feel pretty safe trotting out Forte with money on the line for RB Top 10 finish. I can see why someone would take him over AP for instance as I think AP has the highest potential to regress to RB2 or worse numbers.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Not looking the like of him or Mike Evans in PreSeason so far. I could see a very slow start to the season for both of them
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Much more likely for Evans IMO, if for nothing else there is a rookie QB.
Eli is not elite stud or anything, but he is good enough to get OBJ the ball.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
I think the tape may be out, but then I heard Jerry Rice talk about how good he is. On top of that Eli is playing for a new contract. Then I think about how the offensive line sucks, but then I think about how the run game will suck...
So I have no idea.
So I have no idea.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Not too many guys have the perfect setup ya know. Eli is at least decent, Beckham has talent oozing out of his eyeballs, and yes, they will probably have to throw a lot.
The only think keeping him from about a 275-300 point PPR season is injury to either him or Eli.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
This is some good information! Unfortunately I more conflicted than ever. I was (like all of us) bedazzled by this kid. But now I'm really cooling on him and I don't know if it's irrational or not. The talent he showed last year made me think potential GOAT. But the giants are in a lot of trouble. Their defense may be putrid with the injuries and most people argue that bad defensives will lead to shootouts but if the offense can't get on the field than what's the point? If the giants are a dumpster fire this year, can a WR be expected to have a monster stat line in a 4-5 win team? Add to this the severe O-line concerns and the potential of "Bad Year Manning" and I'm more comfortable taking Brown and possibly Julio ahead of him. One of my leagues is a one keep league and I have him but also have the shot at getting brown off an owner that has Rodgers as well (6 PT passing TDs). What to do...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gordon led he league in receiving in 14 games on a 4-12 team with crappy QBs.
Will he do what he did last year? No. Does he need to do what he did last year to warrant being a 1st round pick? No.
Dismattle
Footballguy
OR
If you own him? Hope he lights it up the first two games and SELL (You know the hammy wont hold)
If you don't own him? Its obvious how much talent can cost you.. Pay now (via Trade FTW) or Pay later by not trading (lose the Championship!)
Bankerguy
Footballguy
So you are saying 100% of teams will own him that will win a championship?
I would bet pretty much anything that he is not the most owned WR on championship teams this year....
Banger
Footballguy
I'm not sure why some people only anticipate improvement on one side of the equation. Why won't odell get more knowledgable about defenses, player tendencies, route running, etc. If you're a defensive coordinator what do you do to stop him? Last year if coordinators look at film he had over 80% success vs every coverage which among the best in the league. Despite whatever scheme you devise you have to have guys 99% of the time with inferior abilities matching up against him. Why don't defensive coordinators start scheming for Antonio Brown?
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Jed
Footballguy
Where are you getting that the Oline is worse? They have a stud first round tackle that is mauling at camp, and Pugh moves to his natural position. This is most definitely an improved unit.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Hahaha...your D had nowhere to go, but up! Your O-line/running game was the lipstick on that pig last year. Helped a very bad D out a ton with time of possession and field position stuff. Covered up weak personnel and a lot of flaws, and that's the brutal truth.
See the bolded. I know it's a tough pill to swallow, but the Scandrick injury absolutely guts your secondary, and that was the weakest link in the chain. Pair that up with no Hardy or McClain for the first 4 games...As he's a Nittany Lion, I'm all-in on Sean Lee, but I'm sad to say I think injuries are never going to allow him to live up to his potential. D-line is your strength, but working back from the line of scrimmage, things get worse at LB and even worse in DB. I like Hitchins a bunch, but I think you guys are relying on way too many raw, young guys, without enough veteran leadership..Last year, you at least had the running game to lean on to bleed clock and rest the D, It better be every bit as good this year, because even that may not be enough.
On the flipside, I think every one of your offensive players is going to be worth their weight in gold in FF, and every game should play to the over, which is exciting!
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
The Giants stink on defense and their run game is not that good.
Eli Manning is way better than the people on here are suggesting. He's won a ring and he was a huge part in getting that. He's also played well in a lot of big games.
Odell will get his. Will he get as high as last year, maybe not but the Giants will be forced to throw the ball. The Giants have coaches too, they know Beckham will attract more attention and sometimes you have to be creative. Move him around a bit to get the ball in his hands. Put him in the slot for a play, wide receiver screens, reverses....get the ball in your best players hands.
I am not afraid to draft him.
Eli Manning is way better than the people on here are suggesting. He's won a ring and he was a huge part in getting that. He's also played well in a lot of big games.
Odell will get his. Will he get as high as last year, maybe not but the Giants will be forced to throw the ball. The Giants have coaches too, they know Beckham will attract more attention and sometimes you have to be creative. Move him around a bit to get the ball in his hands. Put him in the slot for a play, wide receiver screens, reverses....get the ball in your best players hands.
I am not afraid to draft him.
