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Anyone else thinking Lesean McCoy may have a MONSTER year? (1 Viewer)

JuniorNB

Footballguy
In his last healthy season, McCoy had over 1600 total yards and an amazing 20 touchdowns. Now, obviously, we can't discount the chance for a repeat injury, but if he stays healthy, I'm getting this strange feeling that he could do even better this year.

Chip Kelly's offense is going to give him amazing opportunities to get touches against tired defenses. The offense looked great last week and he looked awesome (and healthy). I think he could approach 2000 total yards and 15+ touchdowns.

Thoughts?

 

rickyg

Footballguy
Absolutely has a shot at being the top Rb in fantasy this year if he stays healthy. I've been aggressively trying to trade for him.

 
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fightingillini

Footballguy
Yes. McCoy is #3 on my PPR RB board behind Peterson and Martin.

The only real question is how the carries will be distibuted between McCoy and Brown. If McCoy can get 275 carries and 60+ receptions, he certainly could be the #1 RB at the end of the year in PPR.

People don't realize that he did score 20 TDs one year, so he does have the upside to be in the Peterson territory.

There is no top RB that is fully immune to injuries, so I wouldn't let last year be totally credible as to what happens this year.

 

rjv

Footballguy
Absolutely. I even will venture to say whoever emerges as the RB2 in Philly will be fantasy relevant in this offense. I can easily see the backup getting 10 carries a game.

 

Sweet Love

IBL Representative
I believe many here are thinking he is in for a huge year, but what is interesting is that many outside of the FBG have tempered expectations. I am doing a draft on an FBG "team" which involves 7 other FF boards. There are 8 "copies" of each player (96 teams in all) and I can tell you off the top of my head, FBG owns at least 3 copies of Shady. Part of that has to do with draft position, but it also has to do with our perceived value he represents. I was in the first wave of drafts and took him the highest thus far at 1.11 (it is PPR and people go NUTS for WRs). In three drafts, he went 2.10, 2.08 and 2.08...now I don't think that is normal, but he can be had in the late 1st/early second in most drafts, and that is killer value. I'd rather take a "gamble" on him and a top WR or low-end RB1 versus picking early and having a Doug Martin/ADP coupled with a lesser WR/RB.

Just what I have seen so far, but I can say I have yet to be in a draft where I have seen him go top 10.

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
From what I've seen in mocks and in one earlier draft, where I was considering picking him at #7, but chose Ray Rice instead, Shady fell to pick #11. The late first round is looking like his sweet spot. I drew the #10 pick in a draft next week and will gladly nab him if he fell to me there. In PPR, that represents great value imo.

 

JuniorNB

Footballguy
Before he got hurt last year, he only had 5 TDs. I dont think that should be ignored either.
The Eagle's offensive line was decimated last year and Vick fumbled or was intercepted inside the red zone a crazy amount of times. It was just a horrible year for the team. I think his 20 TDs may have been a bit fluky in 2011, but his low output was probably even more fluky last year. I'm thinking around 15 this year.

 

JuniorNB

Footballguy
From what I've seen in mocks and in one earlier draft, where I was considering picking him at #7, but chose Ray Rice instead,
I'm going to be faced with this exact same decision on Sunday. Was leaning towards McCoy, but loved the way the Ravens used Rice last night. Especially the goal line carry. They also haven't shown much of what they're going to do with him in the passing game, but you know he's going to be heavily involved.

 

Vector

Footballguy
Sweet Love said:
I believe many here are thinking he is in for a huge year, but what is interesting is that many outside of the FBG have tempered expectations. I am doing a draft on an FBG "team" which involves 7 other FF boards. There are 8 "copies" of each player (96 teams in all) and I can tell you off the top of my head, FBG owns at least 3 copies of Shady. Part of that has to do with draft position, but it also has to do with our perceived value he represents. I was in the first wave of drafts and took him the highest thus far at 1.11 (it is PPR and people go NUTS for WRs). In three drafts, he went 2.10, 2.08 and 2.08...now I don't think that is normal, but he can be had in the late 1st/early second in most drafts, and that is killer value. I'd rather take a "gamble" on him and a top WR or low-end RB1 versus picking early and having a Doug Martin/ADP coupled with a lesser WR/RB.

Just what I have seen so far, but I can say I have yet to be in a draft where I have seen him go top 10.
Shady going 2.10, 2.08 is just crazy. I see him going 1.07 - 1.10 consistently.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
LOVE McCoy this year. And whichever of Brown / Polk end up as the RB2 in Philly can also be a good RB3 / flex IMO (12+ teamers).

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
LOVE McCoy this year. And whichever of Brown / Polk end up as the RB2 in Philly can also be a good RB3 / flex IMO (12+ teamers).
If the Eagles average around 80 plays per game (possible) and Kelly is able to run a balanced offense or even a bit run heavy, they'll be running the ball 40+ times per game. McCoy probably won't average more than 20 carries or so a game. So yeah, there should be at least 20 carries a game to distribute among Vick/Brown/Polk. And if any of the 3 RBs (or Vick) gets hurt, that number increases.

McCoy should be top 5 pick and after him, Brown and Polk could both be worth a roster stash. Kelly's gonna run the ball. A lot.

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I think McCoy is gonna be awesome this year, but I don't think he will catch as many balls as many are expecting. Chip Kelly doesn't throw to his RBs as much as Andy Reid does, so counting on 50+ catches out of McCoy might be unrealistic.

 

JuniorNB

Footballguy
Draft in a few hours. Have to decide between McCoy and Rice. I think Rice is more of a sure bet to get 1500 total yards and 10-12 TDs, while McCoy has the better shot at just being a monster. McCoy also has the better chance of getting hit wrong and having concussion issues.

Who would you rather have?

 

Stryker

Footballguy
Draft in a few hours. Have to decide between McCoy and Rice. I think Rice is more of a sure bet to get 1500 total yards and 10-12 TDs, while McCoy has the better shot at just being a monster. McCoy also has the better chance of getting hit wrong and having concussion issues.

Who would you rather have?
I would go with Shady..

 

Man of Zen

Footballguy
I think he's in for a huge year but I think the same for Charles, Spiller, Richardson and Martin.
This, and more.

I can't remember a year when more top-level talent RB's were so healthy, in so many equally-good-or-improved situations, with so many offensive line upgrades, with so many RB-friendly systems in place.

I think the tops of drafts are justifiably stuffed with RB's this year. I can make cases for 1750+ yfs/10+ td potential for a number of backs. And I think it changes the dynamics of the draft somewhat.

Because the dropoff, when it comes, be that RB 10 or RB 15 or RB 20, stands a chance at leaving RB-committee drafters further behind the stud-RB guys than they are most years.

Anyway, love McCoy in that O. I don't think you're reaching on him if you choose to take him at any slot in the draft.

 

JetMaxx

Footballguy
Draft in a few hours. Have to decide between McCoy and Rice. I think Rice is more of a sure bet to get 1500 total yards and 10-12 TDs, while McCoy has the better shot at just being a monster. McCoy also has the better chance of getting hit wrong and having concussion issues.

Who would you rather have?
Mccoy
 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I think he's in for a huge year but I think the same for Charles, Spiller, Richardson and Martin.
This, and more.

I can't remember a year when more top-level talent RB's were so healthy, in so many equally-good-or-improved situations, with so many offensive line upgrades, with so many RB-friendly systems in place.

I think the tops of drafts are justifiably stuffed with RB's this year. I can make cases for 1750+ yfs/10+ td potential for a number of backs. And I think it changes the dynamics of the draft somewhat.

Because the dropoff, when it comes, be that RB 10 or RB 15 or RB 20, stands a chance at leaving RB-committee drafters further behind the stud-RB guys than they are most years.

Anyway, love McCoy in that O. I don't think you're reaching on him if you choose to take him at any slot in the draft.
I've noticed this as well. I also think this year there isn't as much advantage for the better players. The top 10 backs are all pretty good and the top 5 receivers are all elite. Most leagues reward 4 TD passing and the top 12 are all close to each other.

Last year there was a lot more value to be had with Dez/Julio falling to the 3rd/4th and TRich/Martin going in the 3rd many times.

I've pretty much avoided all snake drafts this year just because I don't think there's a lot of value. I'm doing 10 auctions though... there's always value in auctions ;)

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I am stuck at 1.03 between Spiller, Charles, and McCoy...
McCoy
Am I the only one thinking it's AP then TRich? I guess so. I have TRich everywhere this year. I agree with Brad Stevens in that I think TRich has the highest ceiling for TDs this year... And how many backs have guaranteed 300+ rushing 50+ receiving touches? Not even AP receives the ball that much. Weeden is playing great and should keep defenses balanced... the Browns o-line is above average, and TRich is finally healthy. I think he's going to dominate this year and people will regret passing on him from the 1.02-1.05. 1400 / 60 / 600 / 15 TDs.

 
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cubbie5150

Footballguy
From what I've seen in mocks and in one earlier draft, where I was considering picking him at #7, but chose Ray Rice instead, Shady fell to pick #11. The late first round is looking like his sweet spot. I drew the #10 pick in a draft next week and will gladly nab him if he fell to me there. In PPR, that represents great value imo.
Pretty much the same scenario for me in my main 12 team readrfat, .5 PPR. Except I took Rice @ 1.08 & Shady fell to 1.11. For a first round pick, it took me a pretty long time to decide between the 2.

 

GDogg

Footballguy
I think McCoy is gonna be awesome this year, but I don't think he will catch as many balls as many are expecting. Chip Kelly doesn't throw to his RBs as much as Andy Reid does, so counting on 50+ catches out of McCoy might be unrealistic.
We've not seen Chip Kelly's O in a regular season NFL game for the whole game, so it's tough to compare him to Andy Reid. But, Chip Kelly's offense throws to the RB (as opposed to WRs) A LOT.

RB De'Anthony Thomas led Oregon in receptions last year with 45. RB Kenyon Barner chipped in with 20 receptions. They were 2nd and 4th, respectively, in receiving yards for Oregon last year. And, Thomas was 2nd for Oregon in receptions and led Oregon in receiving yards in 2011. LaMichael James and Kenyon Barner each had 17 receptions in 2011 (5th and 6th in receptions and receiving, respectively). 80 receptions between the top 3 RBs (more than 1/3 of total completions) in 2011.

RBs, in Kelly's Oregon system, are used heavily, period.

 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
GDogg said:
I think McCoy is gonna be awesome this year, but I don't think he will catch as many balls as many are expecting. Chip Kelly doesn't throw to his RBs as much as Andy Reid does, so counting on 50+ catches out of McCoy might be unrealistic.
We've not seen Chip Kelly's O in a regular season NFL game for the whole game, so it's tough to compare him to Andy Reid. But, Chip Kelly's offense throws to the RB (as opposed to WRs) A LOT.

RB De'Anthony Thomas led Oregon in receptions last year with 45. RB Kenyon Barner chipped in with 20 receptions. They were 2nd and 4th, respectively, in receiving yards for Oregon last year. And, Thomas was 2nd for Oregon in receptions and led Oregon in receiving yards in 2011. LaMichael James and Kenyon Barner each had 17 receptions in 2011 (5th and 6th in receptions and receiving, respectively). 80 receptions between the top 3 RBs (more than 1/3 of total completions) in 2011.

RBs, in Kelly's Oregon system, are used heavily, period.
Good points, but to be fair, most of Thomas's receptions came when he was lined up as a WR.

Check it out.

He's supposed to be in the backfield almost exclusively this year after Barner's departure. As someone who just drafted DeSean Jackson, I'm hoping he is Chip's "DeAnthony Thomas" in Philly. Find any and every way to get the ball into his hands so he can make plays.

:popcorn:

 

JetMaxx

Footballguy
Philly's offense will attempt to run 80 plays which means McCoy is guaranteed 20+ touches a game in an offense that creates big running lanes and makes the defense cover the whole field. Their defense is horrible which means shoot outs. Mccoy is a sick talent and scored 20 TDs 2 years ago. OL looks to be top 5. No brainer.

 

Stryker

Footballguy
Philly's offense will attempt to run 80 plays which means McCoy is guaranteed 20+ touches a game in an offense that creates big running lanes and makes the defense cover the whole field. Their defense is horrible which means shoot outs. Mccoy is a sick talent and scored 20 TDs 2 years ago. OL looks to be top 5. No brainer.
This Is How I SeeM To Be Leaning Lately..Lots Of PieceS Lined up

 
If you drafted him, like I did as my RB1 in one league, you hope so. He's a top 7 pick in any format and has upside. He could get injured like any back, but I think after ADP, him and Lynch are the two RBs I feel have the lowest bust potential.

 

Rick James

Footballguy
I just drafted him at 1.02 tonight in our keeper league. Now Martin, spiller and Charles were off the board, but I did take him ahead of rice, foster and Richardson.

 
Philly's offense will attempt to run 80 plays which means McCoy is guaranteed 20+ touches a game in an offense that creates big running lanes and makes the defense cover the whole field. Their defense is horrible which means shoot outs. Mccoy is a sick talent and scored 20 TDs 2 years ago. OL looks to be top 5. No brainer.
This Is How I SeeM To Be Leaning Lately..Lots Of PieceS Lined up
I'd love that, but I don't think Philly' is good enough to get 80 O plays a game, and if they do and he gets 20+ touches a game, he'll be toast by week 8-10. I see a mix of 20+ touch games when they're in it and 15-17 touch games when things go south. I'd prefer to see them use caution.
 

FlapJacks

Footballguy
Stryker said:
JuniorNB said:
Draft in a few hours. Have to decide between McCoy and Rice. I think Rice is more of a sure bet to get 1500 total yards and 10-12 TDs, while McCoy has the better shot at just being a monster. McCoy also has the better chance of getting hit wrong and having concussion issues.

Who would you rather have?
I would go with Shady..
and I don't even think it's close

 

mr roboto

Footballguy
Got him at 1.08 tonight. Non ppr. Some idiot took Rogers at 2. AP, Foster, T Rich, Martin, Spiller and Lynch were all gone. Charles went right after McCoy, followed by Rice then Calvin.

 
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Run It Up

Footballguy
Got him at 1.08 tonight. Non ppr. Some idiot took Rogers at 2. AP, Foster, T Rich, Martin, Spiller and Lynch were all gone. Charles went right after McCoy, followed by Rice then Calvin.
Sounds like the 1/2 turn killed it.

In my 12-team dynasty start up on friday I traded up from the 1.07 to the 1.02 to grab Graham (1.5 TEPPR) and after the turn at the 2.06 Mccoy was still there...

 

mr roboto

Footballguy
Got him at 1.08 tonight. Non ppr. Some idiot took Rogers at 2. AP, Foster, T Rich, Martin, Spiller and Lynch were all gone. Charles went right after McCoy, followed by Rice then Calvin.
Sounds like the 1/2 turn killed it.In my 12-team dynasty start up on friday I traded up from the 1.07 to the 1.02 to grab Graham (1.5 TEPPR) and after the turn at the 2.06 Mccoy was still there...
12 teamer.
 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Got him at 1.08 tonight. Non ppr. Some idiot took Rogers at 2. AP, Foster, T Rich, Martin, Spiller and Lynch were all gone. Charles went right after McCoy, followed by Rice then Calvin.
Sounds like the 1/2 turn killed it.In my 12-team dynasty start up on friday I traded up from the 1.07 to the 1.02 to grab Graham (1.5 TEPPR) and after the turn at the 2.06 Mccoy was still there...
12 teamer.
:confused:

 

Sweetness_34

Footballguy
LOVE McCoy this year. And whichever of Brown / Polk end up as the RB2 in Philly can also be a good RB3 / flex IMO (12+ teamers).
If the Eagles average around 80 plays per game (possible) and Kelly is able to run a balanced offense or even a bit run heavy, they'll be running the ball 40+ times per game. McCoy probably won't average more than 20 carries or so a game. So yeah, there should be at least 20 carries a game to distribute among Vick/Brown/Polk. And if any of the 3 RBs (or Vick) gets hurt, that number increases.McCoy should be top 5 pick and after him, Brown and Polk could both be worth a roster stash. Kelly's gonna run the ball. A lot.
You obviously do not recognize that the Eagles D is God awful. Which means the D will be on the field a lot giving up long drives. That also means the Eagles will be playing from behind a LOT, meaning running is not going to be the preferred option to win games. Add to that the fact that the Eagles do not have great weapons (having lost Maclin and Desean is a one trick pony, not someone that can help move chains and get the tough yards for first downs) and they have a QB starting that is known to turn the ball over and suddenly you will realize that 80 plays is s pipe dream.

 

Sweetness_34

Footballguy
LOVE McCoy this year. And whichever of Brown / Polk end up as the RB2 in Philly can also be a good RB3 / flex IMO (12+ teamers).
If the Eagles average around 80 plays per game (possible) and Kelly is able to run a balanced offense or even a bit run heavy, they'll be running the ball 40+ times per game. McCoy probably won't average more than 20 carries or so a game. So yeah, there should be at least 20 carries a game to distribute among Vick/Brown/Polk. And if any of the 3 RBs (or Vick) gets hurt, that number increases.McCoy should be top 5 pick and after him, Brown and Polk could both be worth a roster stash. Kelly's gonna run the ball. A lot.
You obviously do not recognize that the Eagles D is God awful. Which means the D will be on the field a lot giving up long drives. That also means the Eagles will be playing from behind a LOT, meaning running is not going to be the preferred option to win games. Add to that the fact that the Eagles do not have great weapons (having lost Maclin and Desean is a one trick pony, not someone that can help move chains and get the tough yards for first downs) and they have a QB starting that is known to turn the ball over and suddenly you will realize that 80 plays is s pipe dream.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
LOVE McCoy this year. And whichever of Brown / Polk end up as the RB2 in Philly can also be a good RB3 / flex IMO (12+ teamers).
If the Eagles average around 80 plays per game (possible) and Kelly is able to run a balanced offense or even a bit run heavy, they'll be running the ball 40+ times per game. McCoy probably won't average more than 20 carries or so a game. So yeah, there should be at least 20 carries a game to distribute among Vick/Brown/Polk. And if any of the 3 RBs (or Vick) gets hurt, that number increases.McCoy should be top 5 pick and after him, Brown and Polk could both be worth a roster stash. Kelly's gonna run the ball. A lot.
You obviously do not recognize that the Eagles D is God awful. Which means the D will be on the field a lot giving up long drives. That also means the Eagles will be playing from behind a LOT, meaning running is not going to be the preferred option to win games. Add to that the fact that the Eagles do not have great weapons (having lost Maclin and Desean is a one trick pony, not someone that can help move chains and get the tough yards for first downs) and they have a QB starting that is known to turn the ball over and suddenly you will realize that 80 plays is s pipe dream.
They were pretty bad last year too and averaged (I read) 64 plays/game without running a high tempo offense. I say its possible they average 80.

 

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