I had a look at the top thirty or so on the list o9f last years ADP, and made a quick rough list of guys who, IMO, under and over performed their ADP last year (with their overall ADP after their names.)
Under-performed ADP
Priest, 3
Peyton, 5
MacGahee, 6
Deuce, 7
Jamal Lewis, 10
Corey Dillion, 11
Kevin Jones, 12
Randy Moss, 13
Daunte Culpepper, 14
Ahman Green, 16
C-mart, 20
Over-performed ADP
Tiki Barber, 17
Rudi Johnson, 18
Steven Jackson, 24
LaMont Jordan, 26
Warrick Dunn, 44
Seems to me the overall lessons here, in you are looking for safety above all in your first round pick, are the old ones:
a) Don't take a QB in the first two rounds.
b) Don't draft a RB over 29, or with more than 1400 carries on him.
c) Don't draft a young RB without a whole year of solid starting numbers.
d) Don't draft stoners, ex-cons, or trouble-makers.
That leads me to believe that, among those who will go near the top in ADP this year, the safe bets to live up or above their ADP are:
LT
SJax
LJordan
Caddy
Nack
Stevie Smith
CJohnson
That is to say that I am afraid Shaun might be this year's Priest, that LJ might be this year's KJ and JJ rolled up into one.
Thoughts?