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Anyone nervous about Brady this year? ADP seems off IMO (1 Viewer)

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
First, I am NOT a Patriots hater. But at some point, when I look at ADP in redraft leagues, I have to really question how Brady is considered a better/safer pick than a few other QBs this year (Ryan, RG3, Luck). Can we really expect the same completion rate, yards, and TDs without Hernandez, Welker, and even Lloyd?

They don't have the greatest track record with drafting WRs, and how healthy will Gronk be returning from multiple surgeries?

If you are in a redraft league and Brady, Ryan, RG3, and Luck are all on the board, someone make an argument of why I should draft Brady before the others with the lack of proven receivers in NE this year? Going by ADP, he appears to be the QB you take. I just can't figure out why.

 

Holy Schneikes

Footballguy
Belichick and Brady will make it work. Lloyd was nothing special. Welker was replaced by a more athletic player with similar skills. Hernandez will be missed, but they have other options. My personal belief is that the QB and the playcalling made the receivers look special, not the other way around.

You could EASILY make a case for being concerned - the receiving core turnover is astounding, but I'm just not.

 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
He was the 13th qb chosen in an FBG staff draft a few nights ago. Andy Dalton was drafted before him. The person who finally drafted him already had RWilson. I find this absurd but love the value. In a start 2qb auction last weekend I got him as the tenth most expensive QB (So, I'm starting Brees/Brady most weeks). I agree with Schneikes.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Some things in life are not directly correlated to others and the Patriots have shown consistently that the supporting cast does not make the QB in New England. Instead, it is simply a case of a team having one of the best QBs in the league's history. People should enjoy and appreciate that for what it is.

In fantasy, its just a tempting "what if". People LOVE (feel compelled) to gravitate away from older players and stories that just don't have the "juice" that new, intriguing players do. But that thinking is often wrong. When you have great players that have shown you what they are, chasing the younger ones is often a mistake. An agin Marvin Harrison was always better than the hot new WR name. A Manning or Brady is still a Manning and Brady.

The Patriots, its coaches and its QB are simply too sound to just roll over and be a middle of the pack presence.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I think some are forgetting that Brady once led the NFL in passing touchdowns in a season where he was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, David Patten and Deion Branch. He'll be fine. No, I don't think he will throw 35 touchdowns, but around 30 seems about right.

 

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
I think some are forgetting that Brady once led the NFL in passing touchdowns in a season where he was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, David Patten and Deion Branch. He'll be fine. No, I don't think he will throw 35 touchdowns, but around 30 seems about right.
Good point Ghost Rider, but Brown, Patton, and Branch all had several years of NFL experience did they not? I think that does matter. He'll be relying on 1 proven WR (Amendola) who hasn't exactly been able to stay on the field during his career. Just a lot there that makes me want to go in other directions when looking at QBs this year.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Belichick and Brady will make it work. Lloyd was nothing special. Welker was replaced by a more athletic player with similar skills. Hernandez will be missed, but they have other options. My personal belief is that the QB and the playcalling made the receivers look special, not the other way around.

You could EASILY make a case for being concerned - the receiving core turnover is astounding, but I'm just not.
Welker was replaced by the poor man's Welker. Hernandez was the quickest tight end I've ever seen play. Lloyd was meh. But to act like Brady is so fantastic that he can throw for 4500/40 with replacement level players is just silly. I'd think his numbers will be more in line with the 2009 season.

2009 371 565 4398 28 13
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I think some are forgetting that Brady once led the NFL in passing touchdowns in a season where he was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, David Patten and Deion Branch. He'll be fine. No, I don't think he will throw 35 touchdowns, but around 30 seems about right.
Good point Ghost Rider, but Brown, Patton, and Branch all had several years of NFL experience did they not? I think that does matter. He'll be relying on 1 proven WR (Amendola) who hasn't exactly been able to stay on the field during his career. Just a lot there that makes me want to go in other directions when looking at QBs this year.
Branch was a rookie that year, and while Brown is revered in Boston circles for his many contributions to the team, he was offensively never much more than a solid possession receiver.

Again, I do not expect Brady to put up numbers similar to his last few years, but I think he will still be a top 10 FF QB this year. And he will be great value in a lot of leagues.

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Im regularly getting him in the 6th round of 12 team PPR mocks. I just recently got him for a late 6th in a 12 team draft.

Ill take it all day, I'm a proponent for QBBC but I'm never gonna pass on Brady in the 6th. Been backing him up with Dalton and/or Eli

 

Man of Zen

Footballguy
And didn't I already read reports that Ridley is having even more trouble holding onto the rock in camp? I don't see a roster that's going to be able to make some kind of shift to Chuck Knox ball in place.

If you have a well-coached team that's reliant on the pass because they don't trust the run, you've got a recipe for making Jeff Garcia a #1 FF Qb...as he was on occasion in just such a predicament. Tom Brady? Yeah, I'll take my chances, tentatively pencil in 4250/25 and bet on the over. The sure-to-be trivial INT's are always a nice bonus.

 
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jvdesigns2002

Footballguy
In the mocks that I've been doing--he's been going anywhere from the early 5th-late 6th-- right after cam/manning/rodgers/brees. In my experience--he's going around the same level of matt ryan/rg3/luck..etc. I'd probably take ryan ahead of him--but I have no problem taking brady as the 5th highest drafted qb. I love rg3--but the problem is that I don't feel comfortable drafting rg3 unless I commit to drafting a high end qb2 to back him up in case of injury. I prefer not to spend another decent pick on a backup qb--so that turns me off a bit about rg3. Luck had a really solid rookie year--but I have a hard time trusting him relative to a guy like Tom brady--so I have no problem drafting brady ahead of him. At the end of the year--it's possible that rg3/luck and other guys might end up with better numbers--but going into a draft--I like to put my money on safe solid picks.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
If anything, I would be more inclined to think Brady's yardage will drop some but his TD total will stay high. Gronk has been the best red zone threat of this generation, and that won't go away. And I think Dobson will also be able to get open in the red zone. I suspect between the 20s they will run more, but I am pretty confident they will have enough wrinkles and options to continue to score via the air. I would still go 30-35 TD for Brady.

I think the other side effect and potential benefit for NE will be with mostly different faces as receivers, opposing teams will have a harder time figuring out what's coming and what to expect. That may not matter if the new guys are not where they are supposed to be, but I would guess BB will use the element of surprise to his advantage.

As I outlined in other threads, sure, the receiving options are "new" but they are not necessarily bad. Amendola is the next generation of Troy Brown and Welker. Vereen is the next version of Faulk and then Woodhead. Dobson is the heir to the likes of Patten or Branch or Lloyd (none of of which put up great numbers but they still were decent). Gronk will return and should be like Gronk.

The only two people that they really can't fully replace are Randy Moss . . . and they scored over 500 points all 3 seasons since he left . . . and Hernandez . . . who only produced 51-482-5 last year.

I think some folks are underselling Brady. I use Peyton Manning as an example. Manning sat for a year, switched teams, and then stepped in and lit it up in DEN. The season before, the Broncos team leader had 44 receptions and 612 yards. Granted, they had Tebow most of the season at QB and ran a ton, but my point was they didn't exactly have proven commodities catching the ball until Peyton showed up.

The OL in NE is the best and healthiest it's been in a long time. They don't have guys holding out. They don't have guys missing all of training camp recovering from injuries. This tells me that Brady will have some downs where Brady will be in the pocket reading the newspaper and sipping an iced tea before he throws the ball, which makes any top QB dangerous.

And to reiterate. NE scored 557 points last season. Had they scored 75 fewer points, they still would have ranked first. Had they dropped 100 points, they still would have ranked 3rd in the league. Yardage wise they also ranked first, and they could have dropped 1,000 yards and would have ranked 8th. The point being, they were so good on offense that their scoring could drop 20% and they would still be in the Top 5 scoring teams.

To summarize, between Brady, BB, and McDaniels, I think the offense will continue to be one of the best in the league, even if others think the sky is falling.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
To further explain why I think the Pats offense will be fine, they have constantly evolved and morphed over the years.

Early on, they ran a ton and used a lot of play action. Then they went to the dink and dunk and a lot of screens. Then they replaced everyone and went to the shock and awe with a combination of Welker underneath and Moss over the top, taking an unknown in Welker and making him a star and resurrecting Moss' career when he was left for dead in OAK. CERTAINLY they could never be as good with no deep threat and would not do as well with Moss gone. But as I already mentioned, they scored 500+ points in 3 straight years since. So instead of Moss being the focus, and never really using their TEs very much, they reemerged as a two TE offense.

Bottom line, they have done what they needed to do and game planned accordingly based on the personnel they had at the time. "But they can't replace Welker with Amendola!" Well, Welker was a nobody before he came to NE, too.

I have not made my Pats offensive projections yet as I am waiting to see how things shape up a little bit more in training camp. Off the top, I would guess 4400-4500 yards and passing 32-34 TD. Where that would rank him depends on how people project the other top QBs.

 

Maven

Footballguy
Amendola is

371 completions

565 attempts

4398 yards

28 touchdowns

13 picks

Yours?
Ok for starters, 7 guys threw for over 4300 yards last year. Brees, Brady, Manning, Ryan, Romo, Luck, Stafford. In 2011, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, Rivers. 2010, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Schaub.

Do you know what they all had in common? A WR in the top 15 or better. So IDK if you just think Amendola will be hurt? Or think another WR is going to step up (Jenkins and Dobson suck)...but you can pretty much chalk Amendola in as a top 15 WR. Hes the healthiest most talented wr/clone to welker he has.

Secondly,

No rushing TDs? 9 rushing tds last 4 years 7 in the past 2. I say he'll score 3 rushing tds.

You have him for 13 picks but last 4 years hes avg 9.25.

My projections:

4500yds 30 tds 9int / 3 rushing tds = 360 fantasy points (standard).

Matt Ryan finished 5th at about 370 pts last year.

A 5th finish for Brady is very feasible. Dont count this guy out!

 
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Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I could go for 65/600/6 with Brady....I'm 44, a little chubby, pretty slow, and I don't get good separation off the line of scrimmage....but I am 6'3" and I got an attitude....

 
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PatsFanCT

Footballguy
Man of Zen said:
And didn't I already read reports that Ridley is having even more trouble holding onto the rock in camp? I don't see a roster that's going to be able to make some kind of shift to Chuck Knox ball in place.

If you have a well-coached team that's reliant on the pass because they don't trust the run, you've got a recipe for making Jeff Garcia a #1 FF Qb...as he was on occasion in just such a predicament. Tom Brady? Yeah, I'll take my chances, tentatively pencil in 4250/25 and bet on the over. The sure-to-be trivial INT's are always a nice bonus.
Obviously you're grasping at straws here.

Riddle fumbled twice on the first day of camp. Vareen has looked great in camp, and Blount apparently has played very well in the GL situations. The Pats were 7th last year in rushing attempts, so I don't know where you get the "they don't trust the run" part.

Obviously nobody knows what's going to happen this year, and projections are great for debate, but to create an imaginary problem area to boost your starts doesn't really make any sense.

 
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Shutout

Footballguy
Amendola is

371 completions

565 attempts

4398 yards

28 touchdowns

13 picks

Yours?
Ok for starters, 7 guys threw for over 4300 yards last year. Brees, Brady, Manning, Ryan, Romo, Luck, Stafford. In 2011, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, Rivers. 2010, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Schaub.

Do you know what they all had in common? A WR in the top 15 or better. So IDK if you just think Amendola will be hurt? Or think another WR is going to step up (Jenkins and Dobson suck)...but you can pretty much chalk Amendola in as a top 15 WR. Hes the healthiest most talented wr/clone to welker he has.

Secondly,

No rushing TDs? 9 rushing tds last 4 years 7 in the past 2. I say he'll score 3 rushing tds.

You have him for 13 picks but last 4 years hes avg 9.25.

My projections:

4500yds 30 tds 9int / 3 rushing tds = 360 fantasy points (standard).

Matt Ryan finished 5th at about 370 pts last year.

A 5th finish for Brady is very feasible. Dont count this guy out!
I think in a case like this,Gronk qualifies as that top 15 WR (the big impact ball catcher, in other words). I could easily see Brees doing the same thing relying on Graham so if something happened to Colston, I wouldn't see it as a killer.

 

Lord Fantasy

Footballguy
I understand that RGIII gets rushing yards and has a mystical aura, but I find it funny that people are worried about New England receivers and not about Washington's!

 

Maven

Footballguy
Amendola is

371 completions

565 attempts

4398 yards

28 touchdowns

13 picks

Yours?
Ok for starters, 7 guys threw for over 4300 yards last year. Brees, Brady, Manning, Ryan, Romo, Luck, Stafford. In 2011, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, Rivers. 2010, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Schaub.

Do you know what they all had in common? A WR in the top 15 or better. So IDK if you just think Amendola will be hurt? Or think another WR is going to step up (Jenkins and Dobson suck)...but you can pretty much chalk Amendola in as a top 15 WR. Hes the healthiest most talented wr/clone to welker he has.

Secondly,

No rushing TDs? 9 rushing tds last 4 years 7 in the past 2. I say he'll score 3 rushing tds.

You have him for 13 picks but last 4 years hes avg 9.25.

My projections:

4500yds 30 tds 9int / 3 rushing tds = 360 fantasy points (standard).

Matt Ryan finished 5th at about 370 pts last year.

A 5th finish for Brady is very feasible. Dont count this guy out!
I think in a case like this,Gronk qualifies as that top 15 WR (the big impact ball catcher, in other words). I could easily see Brees doing the same thing relying on Graham so if something happened to Colston, I wouldn't see it as a killer.
So your initial post you questioned Gronk's health but now youre saying he'll prob end up with the lions share of the 4300 yards you projected him for? Which is it? Besides the injuries, what do you dislike about Amendola's skillset as a WR? Dont you find him to be very comporable to Welker?

 
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PatsFanCT

Footballguy
I understand that RGIII gets rushing yards and has a mystical aura, but I find it funny that people are worried about New England receivers and not about Washington's!
I wouldn't draft RGIII based on his already messed up knee, and inability to dodge a hit.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Amendola is

371 completions

565 attempts

4398 yards

28 touchdowns

13 picks

Yours?
Ok for starters, 7 guys threw for over 4300 yards last year. Brees, Brady, Manning, Ryan, Romo, Luck, Stafford. In 2011, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, Rivers. 2010, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Schaub.

Do you know what they all had in common? A WR in the top 15 or better. So IDK if you just think Amendola will be hurt? Or think another WR is going to step up (Jenkins and Dobson suck)...but you can pretty much chalk Amendola in as a top 15 WR. Hes the healthiest most talented wr/clone to welker he has.

Secondly,

No rushing TDs? 9 rushing tds last 4 years 7 in the past 2. I say he'll score 3 rushing tds.

You have him for 13 picks but last 4 years hes avg 9.25.

My projections:

4500yds 30 tds 9int / 3 rushing tds = 360 fantasy points (standard).

Matt Ryan finished 5th at about 370 pts last year.

A 5th finish for Brady is very feasible. Dont count this guy out!
I think in a case like this,Gronk qualifies as that top 15 WR (the big impact ball catcher, in other words). I could easily see Brees doing the same thing relying on Graham so if something happened to Colston, I wouldn't see it as a killer.
If he plays.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Amendola is

371 completions

565 attempts

4398 yards

28 touchdowns

13 picks

Yours?
Ok for starters, 7 guys threw for over 4300 yards last year. Brees, Brady, Manning, Ryan, Romo, Luck, Stafford. In 2011, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, Rivers. 2010, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Schaub.

Do you know what they all had in common? A WR in the top 15 or better. So IDK if you just think Amendola will be hurt? Or think another WR is going to step up (Jenkins and Dobson suck)...but you can pretty much chalk Amendola in as a top 15 WR. Hes the healthiest most talented wr/clone to welker he has.

Secondly,

No rushing TDs? 9 rushing tds last 4 years 7 in the past 2. I say he'll score 3 rushing tds.

You have him for 13 picks but last 4 years hes avg 9.25.

My projections:

4500yds 30 tds 9int / 3 rushing tds = 360 fantasy points (standard).

Matt Ryan finished 5th at about 370 pts last year.

A 5th finish for Brady is very feasible. Dont count this guy out!
I think in a case like this,Gronk qualifies as that top 15 WR (the big impact ball catcher, in other words). I could easily see Brees doing the same thing relying on Graham so if something happened to Colston, I wouldn't see it as a killer.
So your initial post you questioned Gronk's health but now youre saying he'll prob end up with the lions share of the 4300 yards you projected him for? Which is it? Besides the injuries, what do you dislike about Amendola's skillset as a WR? Dont you find him to be very comporable to Welker?
I don't think I have said anything about Gronk or Amendola in any thread.

 

Herb

Footballguy
To answer the OP, if I'm choosing betweeen Brady, RG3, Luck and Ryan, I rank them

Ryan (no questions, added S-Jax, offense is loaded)

Brady (duh)

Luck (Love him and would prob take him over Brady in my main keeper league, but think the Pep Hamilton offense is going to curtail his fantasy numbers)

RG3 (scared of the knees, the offense and his style of play)

With that said, am I the only one that thinks that Belichick, ever the chameleon, is going to just pound the ball down people's throats? Three good RBs, a really good (prob great) OL, a bunch of flux in the pass catchers and a defense that seems to be on the upswing? I mean I know when you have Tom Brady you're not going to run the ball 700 times, but I just don't see the Pats throwing with as much frequency as they have the last several years.

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
I understand that RGIII gets rushing yards and has a mystical aura, but I find it funny that people are worried about New England receivers and not about Washington's!
Probably because Griffin put up his numbers last year while throwing 240 fewer passes than Brady did. Passing is much less a part of his game, even if he will likely run a little less this year.

 

Pastor

Footballguy
I think some are forgetting that Brady once led the NFL in passing touchdowns in a season where he was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, David Patten and Deion Branch. He'll be fine. No, I don't think he will throw 35 touchdowns, but around 30 seems about right.
You are technically right, but the year he did it he had only 28 TD's. That was the lowest for a league leader in 10 years previous and ever since. That is a 20 year span. The year he set the record he had Moss and welker. He will probably fall around QB- 8-10. He is too good not to be top 10, but someone has to catch it and rookie Wr's are not the answer. Brady is a stud but if he can lead a top 5 offense this year he should be considered the greatest QB ever.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I think some are forgetting that Brady once led the NFL in passing touchdowns in a season where he was throwing to the likes of Troy Brown, David Patten and Deion Branch. He'll be fine. No, I don't think he will throw 35 touchdowns, but around 30 seems about right.
You are technically right, but the year he did it he had only 28 TD's. That was the lowest for a league leader in 10 years previous and ever since. That is a 20 year span. The year he set the record he had Moss and welker. He will probably fall around QB- 8-10. He is too good not to be top 10, but someone has to catch it and rookie Wr's are not the answer. Brady is a stud but if he can lead a top 5 offense this year he should be considered the greatest QB ever.
As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Peyton Manning missed an entire season of football, switched teams, and took a raw and young corps of receivers and put up 4,659/37 . . . with essentially ALL new receivers, an OL with mostly guys he never played with, and a new coaching staff.

People are making a big deal that Brady "lost" most of his top receiving options from last year. But he still has the same coaching staff, the same play book, and at some point arguably the best TE in the game. IMO, Brady has far more going for him than Manning did last year, and Manning put up his second best fantasy season of his career.

I suspect that people barely slotting Brady into the Top 10 will be off by a fairly substantial margin. He's still Tom Brady. Does it really matter if it's Vereen catching a swing pass instead of Woodhead? Can Brady still throw a 6 yard square out to Amendola instead of Welker? Will the sideline routes for 12 yards be any more difficult throwing to Dobson or Boyce instead of Branch or Lloyd? A lot of the throws will have different hands catching the ball, but that doesn't mean they are exceedingly difficult routes or throws to make. It's not like the Pats are having to replace Jerry Rice. Don't get me wrong, Welker put up some great numbers, suited up almost every week, took some jarring hits, but in terms of flat out athleticism and unique skills, it's not like he's Megatron. Many people thought their offense would crumble without Moss . . . and they actually did BETTER without him.

 
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