Anyone who's played ff for over 15 years............ (1 Viewer)

[ppierce]

run into a bad or good luck streak in recent years? I had a really strong and lucky 12 year run. Playoffs, championships, bad teams getting lucky and advancing etc....Seems like its all caught up to me the past 3 years. Just cant do anything right.

Anyone have this happen? Or opposite where they started out down and now can seem to do no wrong??

 

[pghrob]

I have been playing since 1998. Not quite 15 years. The format change that added PPR and flex a few years ago seemed to bring parity to our league which seems to have elevated my performance as a ffb team owner.

 

[ppierce]

I think its also the wealth of information out there. The avg ff player has access to the same info now as the "expert" ff player does. Of course they always did but the "expert" out worked the novice and dug harder for information. The info basically hits you over the head now. hard to miss.

 

[Shutout]

I am on the opposite swing. My first two years were brutal, despite thinking things were solid, looked good on paper, etc. Seems like I had buzzards luck at every turn with injuries, etc. Then I took off in 1998 and have had some incredible teams. Some dominant for long periods, some just got the right kind of good luck, some saved by the trade no one would take that I was offering (thanks ff gods for saving me from me).

But now, over the last 3-4 years, I have had some great regular season teams that are biting the bullet in grueling fashion in the playoffs and that is very bitter sweet. Here's your best record, here;s your $$ for weekly top scores and yearly top scores, here's your 7th or 8th division title money in a row. Now move over and let us hand the league trophy to the guy that had the middle of the pack player that played the game of his life in Week 16.

So, I think it comes full circle and everyone probably gets a tour of the city if you stay on the bus long enough and don't constantly make the same mistakes.

 

[Acrobat7]

i definitely know what you're talking about.

i've been in a keeper league with almost the same guys for over ten years and won 3 of the first 5 or 6 championships. none since then, though on paper i field the best team.

during the first years i had Tomlinson, Culpepper (MIN version) and "some other guys". LT and Pep won the games.

now i'm fielding Ray Rice, Doug Martin, Calvin, Dez, Jimmy Graham and can't make it to the championship game... crazy!

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I think its also the dearth of information out there. The avg ff player has access to the same info now as the "expert" ff player does. Of course they always did but the "expert" out worked the novice and dug harder for information. The info basically hits you over the head now. hard to miss.

This is absolutely a large portion of what it is, although "dearth" is the exact opposite meaning of what you're going for here.

There used to be a dearth of information available pre-early 2000s, unless you really wanted to go find it. Now? You can have it automatically hitting your phone every half a second for free.

 

[AcerFC]

The league has changed so much since we started. My first year of fantasy football was 1991 when I was a freshman in high school

We have seen so many swings between those years

Stud RB theory and scarcity led to

PPR, seemed unbalanced for some (M Faulk rule and TEs didnt matter) so

PPR 1.5 for TE, .5 for RB, then QB seemed overpowered so

QB 4 pt TD

At this point in the NFL

There are no true stud RB outside of 3-4 players. Out of 32 teams, that is not a lot. This has to do with the shift to RBBC for many teams but it still holds true

I feel like QBs can now take a few steps back in the pocket and fling it to the open receiver, Something like this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRXmvEHWIJI

With so many WRs going off in a single week, fantasy teams have the opportunity to score a lot of points. It is not fun anymore. In my league, a WR would typically score 18-25 points on a great week. Now they are scoring 40-45. QBs the same. ** We have bonus points for long TDs and going over 100, 200 yards. But we had those since we started the league

Add in the fact that fantasy is everywhere now and I hate the game and I hate the NFL. Ill keep playing because it is my league and I am competitive but I have lost the love

I also tried out a draft strategy this year to see how it would work out. I didnt draft my first RB until RD 8. I am 1-1 with the best breakdown record in the league. I would have loved to have seen where that would have gotten me 10 years ago

 

[Banger]

20th anniversary for my main league this year. There's a ton more info out there now than ever before. For the longest time guys would rely on magazines printed in june and there's podcasts, radio shows, tv shows, tons of online sites, it's everywhere so it's much more difficult to get an edge. Hell, you can know nothing and have the computer autodraft and end up with a decent team in some cases.

There's definitely a hot/cold factor but the game has changed as well. I know I've changed my strategies over the past few years and you have to dig a little deeper, know more about the younger up and coming players and make more preemptive moves because once the player breaks out its too late.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I have a long history of finishing the regular season near the top of the league, then losing in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[Jewell]

I have been playing since 1998. Not quite 15 years.

You may want to recheck your math on that one.

 

[ponchsox]

Yep, this year seems to be a year I have a very solid team with a lot of depth in a deep league but the schedule and lineup decisions are killing me. So many things have to fall in place to win a championship in a competitive league.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

20th anniversary here as well..... the grabbing the newspapers days to check for stats are long gone .....

nothing went right last year as i scored the 2nd most pts in a 14 team league only to go 5-8 ...hoping for better luck this year ..1-1 so far but shady gave me a nice start to 2-1

 

[fightingillini]

In one year, I had a streak between 1999-2007 where I missed the playoffs only once, had 3 titles and 2 3rd place finishes. During that streak, I didn't always have the best team but I had the best "defense".....in that my opponent usually had a bad week playing against me. The last few years I have had terrible schedule luck and it always seems as if my opponent is having a huge week against me, whether it's due to great matchups or some flukey long TD or two.

That said, while I have been streaky, the game is more of a crapshoot than ever. The league becoming a passing league has made it that way. The QBs are very consistent, but WRs are not, since most good teams have 3 or 4 options to throw it to.....so it all comes down to how that team is going to attack the defense or what the defense strategy is. The days of having 2 or 3 very good RBs that are bellcows (getting 20+ touches each week) is generally over. You're lucky to have one bellcow RB on your team. So fantasy scores are now more volatile than ever.

In other league I play in, I always seem to draft RBs that get hurt. One year I drafted 4 RBs and the ALL got hurt and either out for the year or missing significant time by Week 4. This year I already lost Vereen and Vick Ballard in that league.

We just have to remember how much luck is involved in FF.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

run into a bad or good luck streak in recent years? I had a really strong and lucky 12 year run. Playoffs, championships, bad teams getting lucky and advancing etc....Seems like its all caught up to me the past 3 years. Just cant do anything right.

Anyone have this happen? Or opposite where they started out down and now can seem to do no wrong??

Here's what it all comes down to in the end: There is a tremendous amount of luck inherent in fantasy football. Tremendous.

Relative to the size of NFL skill-position rosters, starting lineups in FF leagues are small. By definition, small sample sizes are subject to larger variability. And most FF formats (emphasizing TD's - which are more random than yards - and H2H play, which is much more random than total points) exacerbate the effect.

I've been playing since 1996 (commished my first 3 years' worth of leagues via Lotus 1-2-3 and the Monday USA Today). I won the league two years running, then moved to 2 leagues and won nothing for 8 years straight. I won all 3 of my leagues' championships in '11, then lost all 4 of my leagues' semis last year (see to my left!). Similar strength of teams - wildly different results.

It's not entirely random, but it's a lot more random than most people would ever believe, much less admit. But it's like poker: as long as your processes are solid, you'll come out ahead in the long run - you just have to be willing to anticipate and deal with the inevitable swings.

 

[JustinHawkins]

So much luck is involved, especially with injuries. Knock on wood, but this has been the best start to any season I can remember. In my main 15 PPR dynasty money leagues, I went 13-2 the first two weeks. Don't expect that every week but it sure is nice starting out of the gate hot as opposed to slow like so many other years!

 

[snogger]

Been playing for 20 years now and won that first league!

This was the Paper and pen days where you checked stats in the paper the next day..That was the time where you had to be a true geek to commish and play the game.

It's been a few years now since I've won the championship

Some is just bad luck.. Tied in the championship game two years ago.. The tie breaker came down to one game half way through the season where he beat my team by 3 points to determine the Champion :(

Other times it has been over coaching.. 10 minutes before kickoff during the playoffs I switched WR's.. Had I left the original WR in, I'd have won the playoff game, and the Championship in the next bracket..

But this year is MY year!!!!!

 

[ppierce]

I havent been hit with the injury bug as much as i've been hit with draft picks just not panning out for whatever crazy reasons. I'll draft guys that will inexplicably lose their starting role for some random reason like fumbling.

I am also a TERRIBLE drafter. Terrible. No matter what i do, after the draft, my team on paper is horrific. No clue why this happens but it does. EVERY year.

This year, i'm actually blaming this site. Its been good to me in the past so they get a break but their lists were off. Vjax was ahead of guys like Cobb and Cruz. C'mon, i should of known better. Also, Antonio Brown was 8 slots ahead of Jordy. usually if they're a couple of slots off, i go with who i like. but in this case i chose Brown b/c this site had a huge disparity.

 

[ponchsox]

I havent been hit with the injury bug as much as i've been hit with draft picks just not panning out for whatever crazy reasons. I'll draft guys that will inexplicably lose their starting role for some random reason like fumbling.

I am also a TERRIBLE drafter. Terrible. No matter what i do, after the draft, my team on paper is horrific. No clue why this happens but it does. EVERY year.

This year, i'm actually blaming this site. Its been good to me in the past so they get a break but their lists were off. Vjax was ahead of guys like Cobb and Cruz. C'mon, i should of known better. Also, Antonio Brown was 8 slots ahead of Jordy. usually if they're a couple of slots off, i go with who i like. but in this case i chose Brown b/c this site had a huge disparity.

This is why in season management is so important. I have turned dreadful teams into semi-contenders by nailing a few waiver moves.

 

[Fantasy_Freak]

This is our league's 24th year. Since finding footballguys I have consistently been in the running for the playoffs, just haven't found a way to win it all. We have a 16 team league now, back then I think we were 12.

 

[FUBAR]

run into a bad or good luck streak in recent years? I had a really strong and lucky 12 year run. Playoffs, championships, bad teams getting lucky and advancing etc....Seems like its all caught up to me the past 3 years. Just cant do anything right.

Anyone have this happen? Or opposite where they started out down and now can seem to do no wrong??

Over thinking things to some degree, taking sleepers instead of safe veteran players has been my downfall. The easy access to information makes redraft leagues more a matter of luck. Dynasty still requires more strategy, and that's where I've usually done better.

ETA: have played in one way or another since my first pick of Thurman Thomas in 1990 (from Detroit, buddy took Barry #1). been in my main league over a decade now and have been the division champ every year (IIRC), always in the playoffs and one of the top 25% every year but one. Not quite as much success in other leagues but I've been competitive.

 

[bleachercreacher]

True story, we've had an IDP league since the USA Today paper days. I don't remember the year, but I was up 51 or 52 points going into Monday night. I was playing my stepdad either in the semi-finals or championship game and all he had was Joe Horn, and I was done. I'm extremely confident, but didn't really say too much. We give 10 points for all TD's and 15 points for TD's over 50 yards. This ended up being the Joe Horn cell phone game where he caught 4 TDs and scored an insane amount of points in our scoring system, and I lost. My stepdad was unbearable. I took a lot of Joe Horn was calling me to applologize jokes. Fast forward until now, I've won our championship 4 times since, and my stepdad hasn't made it past the second round of the playoffs. Fantasy football karma is real!

 

[jsharlan]

I think it depends on how much of a gambler you are. I take alot of swings on high upside sleeper types, and lately it has seemed to blow up on me more than paying off.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Yep, this is my 20th year. In four leagues I am off to my worst start that I can ever remember (1-7 combined). I have solid teams in 2 of the leagues but faced the top scorer in both.

Like others have said, it is the wealth of resources out there. Some guys in my league literally do not follow football, but come to the draft with the Draft Dominator or the like and are in the playoff hunt.

 

[Pipes]

This is our 24th year in a league with mainly high school and college friends. We've been at 16 teams for about 10 years and were at 14 for all but the first year or two and that was at 12. I've won 4 championships year 1, 8, 9 and 14 so I'm on a bit of a drought. 1 other guy has won 4, 1 guy has 3 and a couple at 2 and a bunch of 1 time winners with 3 guys who have never won.

I agree with others that there is so much exposure which makes it tough. I used to be able to find guys that most had no clue about. For example I drafted Anquan Boldin his rookie year and was laughed at by just about everyone in the room. "Who the hell is that?" Then he went off. Same with Marques Colston. Now it's nearly impossible for guys like those to slip through the cracks. Alfred Morris was drafted in the 7th round last year and over half the room groaned as they thought he would last another round or two. In the early days noone would've had a clue about him.

I'm still usually in the upper half of the league and make the playoffs probably 2 out of every 3 years but have been having lousy luck in weeks 14-16.

 

[Riffraff]

Only bad streaks are when the FF schedule or injury gods smite me down.

 

[Doubtingthomas]

So in a league that will be 20 next year. Have won the super bowl once in the late 90s and lost it 6 times. Not sure if that is lucky or unlucky.

 

[PIK95]

The league has changed so much since we started. My first year of fantasy football was 1991 when I was a freshman in high school

We have seen so many swings between those years

Stud RB theory and scarcity led to

PPR, seemed unbalanced for some (M Faulk rule and TEs didnt matter) so

PPR 1.5 for TE, .5 for RB, then QB seemed overpowered so

QB 4 pt TD

At this point in the NFL

There are no true stud RB outside of 3-4 players. Out of 32 teams, that is not a lot. This has to do with the shift to RBBC for many teams but it still holds true

I feel like QBs can now take a few steps back in the pocket and fling it to the open receiver, Something like this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRXmvEHWIJI

With so many WRs going off in a single week, fantasy teams have the opportunity to score a lot of points. It is not fun anymore. In my league, a WR would typically score 18-25 points on a great week. Now they are scoring 40-45. QBs the same. ** We have bonus points for long TDs and going over 100, 200 yards. But we had those since we started the league

Add in the fact that fantasy is everywhere now and I hate the game and I hate the NFL. Ill keep playing because it is my league and I am competitive but I have lost the love

I also tried out a draft strategy this year to see how it would work out. I didnt draft my first RB until RD 8. I am 1-1 with the best breakdown record in the league. I would have loved to have seen where that would have gotten me 10 years ago

This is exactly how I feel now.

 

[Shutout]

I think it depends on how much of a gambler you are. I take alot of swings on high upside sleeper types, and lately it has seemed to blow up on me more than paying off.

I think the "Luck of the Gambler" approach has run its course in ff now, due to there being so much info out there.

There used to be the days when some guy would walk into a room full of other guys, all holding magazines and he would spurt off a 10th round name like "Carl Pickens" and half the room would say "who?" and the other half would laugh as they flipped through the pages to see if the name was on a list. Then Carl Pickens would catch 17 TDs and the guy would dog-walk the league easily.

You can't do that anymore so all the home run swingers don't get the return you once could. The field is leveled as we are inundated with info that pretty much prevents even the most novice player from making dire mistakes. Once the field is leveled, all you have left is luck. Will this be the week that you have Hustin Houston and he outscores Vick and Charles combined? Will you find yourself in a playoff game in Week 16 and Reggie Bush has 3 Tds and knocks out your #1 team?

The (point) gap isn't there anymore for the better owners to be able to absorb the random points their opponents get when they have a wildly lucky career day. We can all win or lose on any given Sunday now.

 

[lod01]

I've seen it all, had it happen to me, did it to others.

#1 on my list of disasters was the Bears comeback that resulted in the Dennis Green tirade. Yep, had that game sewed up and ended up losing it.

#2 Try needing like 10 points out of Shannon Sharpe, Tim Brown and Harvey Williams on a Monday night game and not getting it.

#1 On the flipside, won a $250/entry, 14 team redraft title because Gomer couldn't connect with Nicks for a 3 yard catch even though he threw to him for a whole quarter including one catch that was called back for a penalty. That's right, a championship by 0.3 points.

 

[NYRAGE]

I've been playing for almost 20 years. I dominated for the first 15 years. For many years, I came up with own strategies, but then websites started popping up left and right providing the common guy with strategies, sleepers, line-up advice, free agent advice, etc. Lazy owners could basically come up with the same information in minutes that I used to do on my own. It definitely helped level the playing field quite a bit.

As others have touched upon, luck plays a factor. In the past 4 years of my main league, I have won 1 championship, lost in another championship game, and barely missed the playoffs twice. Yikes, I never missed the playoffs. The reason I missed the playoffs was because I have been wiped out by injuries. One one key guy here or there is one thing, but I remember in one week losing 6 starters and two bench players. I think I"m good enough to make chicken salad out of chicken you know what, but sometimes it's not enough as I have missed the playoffs by a tie-breaker or one game.

I loved my team to start the year, but it's already one of those years after two weeks. I had four players injured during their games last week. I've already been dealing with injuries to Roddy White (my fault, I knew his ankle was messed up when I drafted him, but not the dreaded high ankle sprain). I lost RB depth with Vereen and now Bradshaw is useless. My fault for thinking MJD could turn it around. Gronk is still out. Some of are my decisions, but some are just dumb luck. I know I'll turn it around, but it sucks starting out in the hole.

When your advantage over other teams decreases thanks to so much info being out there, then luck (injuries, one week outliers, scheduling) plays a much bigger factor in success.

 

[spodog]

I was in my first league in 1990.

I think over any timeframe of 10 years or more, your observations will play out. Luck will run in streaks in FF, just like it does with other forms of gambling.

I'd agree with a lot of the other comments here that Luck and injuries probably have a larger % impact than they did back in the early to mid 90's since info is so much easier to come by now.

 

[dickey moe]

I've been playing for over 15 years, and this is the first year in a long time that I can remember that the consistently strong owners seem to be struggling, and the owners who normally don't seem to be as sharp seem to be dominating. Drafts/projections aren't following the script so far this season. It's just looks like it could be one of those years.

 

[pghrob]

I have been playing since 1998. Not quite 15 years.

You may want to recheck your math on that one.

Nice job. You passed the test to see who was paying attention. Lol.

 

[robin1970]

I been playing for over 25 years and just like everything else its a life of cycles everyone is going to have ups and downs its just the way it is.

 

[ponchsox]

I've been playing for over 15 years, and this is the first year in a long time that I can remember that the consistently strong owners seem to be struggling, and the owners who normally don't seem to be as sharp seem to be dominating. Drafts/projections aren't following the script so far this season. It's just looks like it could be one of those years.

This is true. I just got smoked by a team least week that I consistently feast on every year and has traditionally drafted an abysmal team.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I've played since the mid-80s. Three times in some 25 years I've taken a season off. Just stop the fantasy game obsession. Enjoy football in it's purest sense. Like we did as kids. Go see some high school games. Smell the cut grass. It's still a great game. A season away from our little side hobby can be cathartic. Some of you seem good candidates. Every time I've come back with a new perspective that's helped me win leagues, but maybe more importantly, helped me enjoy the hobby again/more.

Maybe a better question: How long has it been since you woke up on Sunday without a fantasy interest?

 

[ppierce]

Actually had my best win and worst loss all in week 2 this year.

Was up 1 point going against Boldin on MNF, coming off 200 yds receiving. Duh, it was a loser for sure. Boldin gets 1 catch, 7 yds for .5 points. I win by .5.

Fast forward to Wednesday, I happen to glance at the standings and notice i'm 0-2. What???? After researching i see that Spiller had a catch and 12 yds taken and way and rightfully given to fjax. Loser, loser.

 

[Buckna]

The explosion in popularity and technology killed redraft for me. I miss the days of putting stickers on boards or hearing people flip thru magazines. The day I went to a draft and every owner except me had a laptop I knew all the offseason scouring the Internet, keeping up with trades and scouting reports on rookies wouldn't matter anymore. The icing on the cake was 4 or so years ago when we had a guy that couldn't make the draft and the rest of the guys decided to let the computer auto-draft for him. Then his team beat me in the championship of course. I only play in 2 redrafts anymore that are made up mostly of family and friends. I'd love to do auctions but most people only want to snake draft. :-(

Even dynasty is losing its luster. There's a lot of info on rookies and prospects as well as a lot of groupthink on player values. And most owners dont really want to trade, they just want to rape you. Just look at the dynasty trade threads in here for plenty of examples of that. To have an edge in dynasty seems to boil down to how well you can trade and how well you can anticipate changes in player values as well as go against the groupthink and be right. But it gets tiring trying to improve your team all season and offseason and then you see someone dump that stud they told you they'd never trade for peanuts to a different team. Kind of like the Cleveland Browns this week!

 

[Bull Dozier]

My first year was 1990, as a senior in high school. That league started with four (yes, four teams), and is now a 12 team auction/keeper league.

There have beena lot of highs and lows. I think there are several factors. Information in the beginning was tough to come by. All we had was the injury report in the newspaper, and NFL Primetime on Sunday. Otherwise, all we had to go on were the games we actually got to watch. I remember drafting Dexter Carter to be a starter for me in 1991 because I saw him return a kick for a touchdown in the preseason. Obviously times have changed, as has the NFL.

Based on my observations, and gut reactions, I think people get a system that works that keeps them comeptitive for a few years, but then they get lazy. Something changes, either information, or a trend in the NFL, and they keep doing what they've been doing too long without changing. That send them into a string of "bad luck" until they make adjustments and get back on track.

Obviously a bunch of other things can affect you. Injuries, bad luck, missing badly on a couple of picks. It all happens to everyone, it just seems sometimes those thing happen all at once over a few seasons (that's where I am right now unfortunately).

 

[seahawk 17]

Count me in the group of the old school pen and paper. I thought I was the genius of my league because I would get the Friday edition of USA Today and it had so much info. I have always fielded competitive teams and no huge losing streaks, however.....

I am currently struggling with being to cute. There is so much info out there that is available and I have really gone away from trusting that "gut feeling." In my money league I am 0-2 and have lost by a combined 5 points. Last minute line up changes have cost me due to info overload.

 

[Crippler]

I been playing for over 25 years and just like everything else its a life of cycles everyone is going to have ups and downs its just the way it is.

I think you have your ups and downs but you also have your crap owners that dont do much of anything with there time

Our league is entering year 18(dynasty 16 team with half making playoffs). One team has made the playoffs all 17 years(11 scoring titles, 9 regular season titles, 7 Super Bowls). Is this luck or just being better than the rest. We have one team that has 1 playoff appearance in 12 years. I team that had 2 in 13 years with 7 straight bottom 3 appearances(even though the only #8 seed to win Super Bowl. Also never owned his 1st and 2nd round picks). Another was 3 of 15 and last is 4 of 17(This guy picks 5 to 8 every year though. Not terrible but not good enough). Just terrible management and 2 of them are part of the Thumb Brothers as designated by a team moniker by the league. So while good owners have ups and downs with mostly ups, there is always the crap owner who wont win anything and you already know what will happen.

 

[AcerFC]

I been playing for over 25 years and just like everything else its a life of cycles everyone is going to have ups and downs its just the way it is.

I think you have your ups and downs but you also have your crap owners that dont do much of anything with there time

Our league is entering year 18(dynasty 16 team with half making playoffs). One team has made the playoffs all 17 years(11 scoring titles, 9 regular season titles, 7 Super Bowls). Is this luck or just being better than the rest.

I actually think it is easier for a team to keep its success in dynasty

If you would have said he had the same streak in redraft, then I would have been

 

[mphtrilogy]

been playing for 25 years..

worst draft in 20 years this year...

it happens..

keep plugging away, make sure to keep it fun and light

 

[Pantherz]

Started in 1989. 24th year now.

First draft pick ever?

Mike Cofer K San Francisco 49ers!

Luckily my second was rookie Barry Sanders.

 

[mphtrilogy]

had randall cunningham as my #1 pick in i think it was 1990, first play, broken leg

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Started in 1989. 24th year now.

First draft pick ever?

Mike Cofer K San Francisco 49ers!

Luckily my second was rookie Barry Sanders.

lol

 

[spodog]

Maybe a better question: How long has it been since you woke up on Sunday without a fantasy interest?

For me, it was Sunday, Sept 1st, a little over two weeks ago. Made a big breakfast, fired up the smoker, didn't give a single thought to football all day.

 

[SCT]

run into a bad or good luck streak in recent years? I had a really strong and lucky 12 year run. Playoffs, championships, bad teams getting lucky and advancing etc....Seems like its all caught up to me the past 3 years. Just cant do anything right.

Anyone have this happen? Or opposite where they started out down and now can seem to do no wrong??

Here's what it all comes down to in the end: There is a tremendous amount of luck inherent in fantasy football. Tremendous.

Relative to the size of NFL skill-position rosters, starting lineups in FF leagues are small. By definition, small sample sizes are subject to larger variability. And most FF formats (emphasizing TD's - which are more random than yards - and H2H play, which is much more random than total points) exacerbate the effect.

I've been playing since 1996 (commished my first 3 years' worth of leagues via Lotus 1-2-3 and the Monday USA Today). I won the league two years running, then moved to 2 leagues and won nothing for 8 years straight. I won all 3 of my leagues' championships in '11, then lost all 4 of my leagues' semis last year (see to my left!). Similar strength of teams - wildly different results.

It's not entirely random, but it's a lot more random than most people would ever believe, much less admit. But it's like poker: as long as your processes are solid, you'll come out ahead in the long run - you just have to be willing to anticipate and deal with the inevitable swings.

This.

 

[spodog]

Started in 1989. 24th year now.

First draft pick ever?

Mike Cofer K San Francisco 49ers!

At least Cofer had a big year that year. 29 FG's and 49 extra points.

 

[JFS171]

Been playing nearly 15 years, though I've noticed no real pattern, especially in redraft leagues.

Dynasty leagues, or even deep keeper leagues, separate out the wheat from the chaff when it comes to owners. In those I had pretty solid success for years at a time ,and even in down years would still make the playoffs or come close to advancing.

Redraft leagues are all over the place - sometimes things just don't go well, be it an injury, poor projections, or sheer bad luck.

I think two things are at play:

1) the popularity of the game has pushed information overload on everyone. It used to be that Rotoworld, when it first started, was the biggest advantage I had on every other player. Was pretty convinced I had 2-3 years where others in my league didn't know about it, and I often beat them to the better player on the wire.

2) NFL parity has increased even more, leading to luck playing a bigger factor in matchups that last 1 week. Football especially is luck driven - it would surprise everyone to see the Jags go out and beat Seattle this weekend, but that's the NFL - it could conceivably happen. When playoffs come and you throw that many variables at the game for three weeks in a row, anything can happen.