Arch Manning vs LaNorris Sellers, which is best for fantasy? (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Most of the hype surrounds Arch Manning, but will LaNorris Sellers be the better fantasy QB? Manning has some mobility, but he won’t be noted as a QB that runs much. He gives me Trevor Lawrence vibes. He will probably be an excellent NFL QB, but what will he mean for fantasy? Sellers will compile better rushing stats than Manning, but what about his passing? Sellers completed 65.6% of his passes, not bad, for 2534 yards, 18 TDs, and 7 interceptions. He rushed for 674 yards and 7 TDs.

I think this could be a hard choice…….or not.

 

[Don Quixote]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

 

[JohnnyU]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

 

[Don Quixote]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

I think Sellers will be good enough as a passer. Reminds me of Cam Newton. I think he is held back by the offense a bit and interested to see what he can do with some better receivers. His floor is lower than Arch’s, but I like going big with the higher ceiling players when it comes to devy.

Everything that I’ve read about Underwood is that he is meeting the expectations at Michigan this offseason, which says a lot since he is probably the most hyped prospect that they’ve ever had, and looks likely to start Week 1 as a true freshman. He’s got Vince Young-like size/speed but with a better arm, and strong work ethic. Stories that I’m reading say that he’s working with WR’s until midnight and still the first one on the field at 6am. When asked what he wants to be, he says that he wants to be in the Hall of Fame — like his attitude. A bit risky with a true freshman QB who has not taken the field yet, as some duds in the past few years (like Nico and Dante Moore), but I’m again going with the upside.

 

[Mistakes Were Made]

I don't know. What I do know is that their decisions next spring are going to be fascinating. Everyone wants to sell 2026 1st for 2027 1st. LaNorris and Arch could both come out in 26. That would give that class a very solid floor for value. They could both wait until 27, which with Jeremiah Smith + Ryan Williams would make for just a totally wild SF draft class.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't know. What I do know is that their decisions next spring are going to be fascinating. Everyone wants to sell 2026 1st for 2027 1st. LaNorris and Arch could both come out in 26. That would give that class a very solid floor for value. They could both wait until 27, which with Jeremiah Smith + Ryan Williams would make for just a totally wild SF draft class.

If Manning throws for 4,000 yards and is in the Heisman running, no way he waits until 2027.

 

[Mistakes Were Made]

I don't know. What I do know is that their decisions next spring are going to be fascinating. Everyone wants to sell 2026 1st for 2027 1st. LaNorris and Arch could both come out in 26. That would give that class a very solid floor for value. They could both wait until 27, which with Jeremiah Smith + Ryan Williams would make for just a totally wild SF draft class.

If Manning throws for 4,000 yards and is in the Heisman running, no way he waits until 2027.

I totally 1000000% agree with you. The market is pricing in Manning going back because they mis-remember Peyton's decision (and I think Eli's too but I don't remember that enough to have an opinion.)

If Arch is the #1 pick to a spot The Family determines is good based on offensive system and players currently available, he goes. I don't think it's a lock either of those things happen though. The Giants or Colts get the #1, fire their coaching staff/hire good ones, and Arch is a Heisman finalist, then I'd bet he comes out. I think that's a hot take for the consensus opinion though.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't know. What I do know is that their decisions next spring are going to be fascinating. Everyone wants to sell 2026 1st for 2027 1st. LaNorris and Arch could both come out in 26. That would give that class a very solid floor for value. They could both wait until 27, which with Jeremiah Smith + Ryan Williams would make for just a totally wild SF draft class.

If Manning throws for 4,000 yards and is in the Heisman running, no way he waits until 2027.

Same for LaNorris. Not hard to see a world where he's a Heisman finalist. 3,000 yards passing, 800 rushing and 30+ TDs is pretty easy to imagine.

 

[Ilov80s]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

I think Sellers will be good enough as a passer. Reminds me of Cam Newton. I think he is held back by the offense a bit and interested to see what he can do with some better receivers. His floor is lower than Arch’s, but I like going big with the higher ceiling players when it comes to devy.

Everything that I’ve read about Underwood is that he is meeting the expectations at Michigan this offseason, which says a lot since he is probably the most hyped prospect that they’ve ever had, and looks likely to start Week 1 as a true freshman. He’s got Vince Young-like size/speed but with a better arm, and strong work ethic. Stories that I’m reading say that he’s working with WR’s until midnight and still the first one on the field at 6am. When asked what he wants to be, he says that he wants to be in the Hall of Fame — like his attitude. A bit risky with a true freshman QB who has not taken the field yet, as some duds in the past few years (like Nico and Dante Moore), but I’m again going with the upside.

I know a teacher from Belleville who was pretty close to Underwood. He says Underwood is a true leader. Since he was a 9th grader, he organized all the offseason workouts and practices for the offense. He had these HS kids, even kids older than him, showing up all these extra days to train. People just immediately gravitated to him and wanted to play with him. It's a high bar and that doesn't always translate to the next level but Underwood seems physically and mentally built for the NFL.

 

[JohnnyU]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

I think Sellers will be good enough as a passer. Reminds me of Cam Newton. I think he is held back by the offense a bit and interested to see what he can do with some better receivers. His floor is lower than Arch’s, but I like going big with the higher ceiling players when it comes to devy.

Everything that I’ve read about Underwood is that he is meeting the expectations at Michigan this offseason, which says a lot since he is probably the most hyped prospect that they’ve ever had, and looks likely to start Week 1 as a true freshman. He’s got Vince Young-like size/speed but with a better arm, and strong work ethic. Stories that I’m reading say that he’s working with WR’s until midnight and still the first one on the field at 6am. When asked what he wants to be, he says that he wants to be in the Hall of Fame — like his attitude. A bit risky with a true freshman QB who has not taken the field yet, as some duds in the past few years (like Nico and Dante Moore), but I’m again going with the upside.

I know a teacher from Belleville who was pretty close to Underwood. He says Underwood is a true leader. Since he was a 9th grader, he organized all the offseason workouts and practices for the offense. He had these HS kids, even kids older than him, showing up all these extra days to train. People just immediately gravitated to him and wanted to play with him. It's a high bar and that doesn't always translate to the next level but Underwood seems physically and mentally built for the NFL.

Not sure I would gravitate to the leader angle as a high priority compared to other traits, but that is good to know I suppose.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

I think Sellers will be good enough as a passer. Reminds me of Cam Newton. I think he is held back by the offense a bit and interested to see what he can do with some better receivers. His floor is lower than Arch’s, but I like going big with the higher ceiling players when it comes to devy.

Everything that I’ve read about Underwood is that he is meeting the expectations at Michigan this offseason, which says a lot since he is probably the most hyped prospect that they’ve ever had, and looks likely to start Week 1 as a true freshman. He’s got Vince Young-like size/speed but with a better arm, and strong work ethic. Stories that I’m reading say that he’s working with WR’s until midnight and still the first one on the field at 6am. When asked what he wants to be, he says that he wants to be in the Hall of Fame — like his attitude. A bit risky with a true freshman QB who has not taken the field yet, as some duds in the past few years (like Nico and Dante Moore), but I’m again going with the upside.

I know a teacher from Belleville who was pretty close to Underwood. He says Underwood is a true leader. Since he was a 9th grader, he organized all the offseason workouts and practices for the offense. He had these HS kids, even kids older than him, showing up all these extra days to train. People just immediately gravitated to him and wanted to play with him. It's a high bar and that doesn't always translate to the next level but Underwood seems physically and mentally built for the NFL.

Not sure I would gravitate to the leader angle as a high priority compared to other traits, but that is good to know I suppose.

I think it is huge plus. A good leader typically is mature and hardworking at their craft. They also are typically able to lift others to a higher level of performance. I think it is actually an underrated quality, in particular to the QB position.

 

[JohnnyU]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

I think Sellers will be good enough as a passer. Reminds me of Cam Newton. I think he is held back by the offense a bit and interested to see what he can do with some better receivers. His floor is lower than Arch’s, but I like going big with the higher ceiling players when it comes to devy.

Everything that I’ve read about Underwood is that he is meeting the expectations at Michigan this offseason, which says a lot since he is probably the most hyped prospect that they’ve ever had, and looks likely to start Week 1 as a true freshman. He’s got Vince Young-like size/speed but with a better arm, and strong work ethic. Stories that I’m reading say that he’s working with WR’s until midnight and still the first one on the field at 6am. When asked what he wants to be, he says that he wants to be in the Hall of Fame — like his attitude. A bit risky with a true freshman QB who has not taken the field yet, as some duds in the past few years (like Nico and Dante Moore), but I’m again going with the upside.

I know a teacher from Belleville who was pretty close to Underwood. He says Underwood is a true leader. Since he was a 9th grader, he organized all the offseason workouts and practices for the offense. He had these HS kids, even kids older than him, showing up all these extra days to train. People just immediately gravitated to him and wanted to play with him. It's a high bar and that doesn't always translate to the next level but Underwood seems physically and mentally built for the NFL.

Not sure I would gravitate to the leader angle as a high priority compared to other traits, but that is good to know I suppose.

I think it is huge plus. A good leader typically is mature and hardworking at their craft. They also are typically able to lift others to a higher level of performance. I think it is actually an underrated quality, in particular to the QB position.

While I agree it is important , maybe second most important, I’m just saying I’m looking at him from a talent perspective first.

 

[socrates]

LaNorris Sellers falls somewhere between Justin Fields and Cam Newton, imo. He still has room to grow as a passer, but his fantasy ceiling is very high.

Arch Manning falls somewhere between Trevor Lawrence and a more athletic version of his Uncle Eli. His fantasy ceiling may not be as high as that of LaNorris Sellers, but it is still high.

If I were on the clock right now and had to choose, I would choose Manning. I feel like his floor is safer and his ceiling is plenty high.

Ask me 6 months from now, and my answer might be different, however. Both of these QBs are largely unproven, and this battle for the potential #1 pick will play out this fall.

 

[Ilov80s]

I’d go Sellers by a pretty good margin. I have Underwood higher than Arch for devy purposes too.

So you think Sellers as a passer will be good enough? Why do you like Underwood?

I think Sellers will be good enough as a passer. Reminds me of Cam Newton. I think he is held back by the offense a bit and interested to see what he can do with some better receivers. His floor is lower than Arch’s, but I like going big with the higher ceiling players when it comes to devy.

Everything that I’ve read about Underwood is that he is meeting the expectations at Michigan this offseason, which says a lot since he is probably the most hyped prospect that they’ve ever had, and looks likely to start Week 1 as a true freshman. He’s got Vince Young-like size/speed but with a better arm, and strong work ethic. Stories that I’m reading say that he’s working with WR’s until midnight and still the first one on the field at 6am. When asked what he wants to be, he says that he wants to be in the Hall of Fame — like his attitude. A bit risky with a true freshman QB who has not taken the field yet, as some duds in the past few years (like Nico and Dante Moore), but I’m again going with the upside.

I know a teacher from Belleville who was pretty close to Underwood. He says Underwood is a true leader. Since he was a 9th grader, he organized all the offseason workouts and practices for the offense. He had these HS kids, even kids older than him, showing up all these extra days to train. People just immediately gravitated to him and wanted to play with him. It's a high bar and that doesn't always translate to the next level but Underwood seems physically and mentally built for the NFL.

Not sure I would gravitate to the leader angle as a high priority compared to other traits, but that is good to know I suppose.

I agree but obviously he has the tools. You don't end up graded as a 100/100 prospect, #1 in the Nation, etc. without having NFL physical tools. Some of those players live up the hype and become coveted NFL assets. Some can't make the jump. Being a leader, having a singular focus and a professional mentality are likely good indicators that a player will be able to keep improving and handle new challenges. It's no guarantee of course but I would say the odds that Underwood ends up as a starting NFL QB are about as high as you can possibly set for a true freshman.

 

[menobrown]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

100% agree. Likely he is in no rush and I am sure his family would recommend the same. If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

 

[socrates]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

 

[pinkstapler]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

Agree here 100%. I think his performance this year, Heisman votes, etc. have absolutely nothing to do with the decision. It will be either a good organization has 1.01 or he goes back to school.

 

[menobrown]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

 

[King of the Jungle]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

Rams obviously would be incredible, I was just thinking about a good organization that has surrounding talent that could possibly struggle this coming year. Coincidentally, the Colts is where Peyton was obviously and that may be a positive or a negative depending how Arch feels.

 

[pinkstapler]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

Steelers A man can dream at least lol.

This would obviously be leaning towards him coming out in 2027 and us being past the Rodgers experiment but still with 0 QB. Probably need a few other pieces to fall in place, like a TJ Watt trade. And really leaning into stinking. I don't think we would stink bad enough to have a natural top pick this year. But we do have an extra third rounder, 2027 1/2/3, and could move Watt. Not sure if I'd like whatever the final price would be, but I don't realistically see another path to a QB anytime soon.

 

[JohnnyU]

Nickname for Manning: Golden Arch? Or at least some McDonalds commercials.

 

[menobrown]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

Steelers A man can dream at least lol.

This would obviously be leaning towards him coming out in 2027 and us being past the Rodgers experiment but still with 0 QB. Probably need a few other pieces to fall in place, like a TJ Watt trade. And really leaning into stinking. I don't think we would stink bad enough to have a natural top pick this year. But we do have an extra third rounder, 2027 1/2/3, and could move Watt. Not sure if I'd like whatever the final price would be, but I don't realistically see another path to a QB anytime soon.

Yeah that's a great dream but as you are saying difficult to envision a coach known for avoiding losing seasons having arguably his best roster in a few years suddenly face planting enough to get a top pick.

One big of good news is you actually low balled them saying they have just one extra third rounder. They will have 2 extra third round picks plus an extra pick in rounds 4-6. That and the entire 2027 draft still probably won't move you up from like mid to late teens to top 3 though.

I think for the Steelers their best path to draft a QB will be something like last years draft where 6 QB's were legit good enough to go round one with the last one going 12. They need a class like that, not necessarily 6 but a large enough number of QB's that one they view as worth the investment falls back due to surplus. Then if one they like lingers they got ammo to make what will probably be a more realistic move up. This is actually what I expect to happen unless they just blow past all expectations and the pick lands in the mid 20's or higher. Summary version I expect the Steelers to most likely be shopping in that QB 3-6 type of market.

 

[Lehigh98]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

If he cared about that, why not go to Ole Miss?

 

[JohnnyU]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

If he cared about that, why not go to Ole Miss?

Probably wanted to play at a different school than any of the other Mannings. Also probably wants to play with a different NFL team than Archie, Peyton, and Eli.

 

[Ilov80s]

What is a good spot? Who knows what anyone might think. The teams Vegas projects to be the worst

1. Saints- easy to see the family connection here
2. Jets- Jets have had a rough track record but it's still New York City
3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now
4. Giants- Eli and NYC and Nabers
5. Titans- they are likely not in the market and would trade out
6. Raiders- Vegas, Brady this could be alluring, Bowers and Jeanty makes a good trio
7. Panthers- this is a tough sell
8. Colts- The family connection plus it's actually a pretty decently put together offense just waiting for a QB.

 

[menobrown]

If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

Which team in position to draft him with assurances they would that would entice him is interesting to think about, to me anyway.

I can see why you both would say these two teams but OTHO Eli is the only Manning to willingly choose to follow in a family members footsteps in college and that was with a 30 year gap between his dad. Possibly the pressure of following in a family members footsteps and/or wanting to forge your own identity are factors?

Or maybe he'd love to play for his hometown team where his grandpa played. I can't know but if I do recall when Eli was trying to stiff arm the Chargers one of the reasons cited was organizational stability.

What I personally view as easily the most compelling team with a realistic shot to obtain him that would push Arch to want to come out with the proper assurances would be the Rams. How would you say no to that? But they'd likely need the Falcons pick to at least be in the top 10 range to give them a shot to move up.

If he cared about that, why not go to Ole Miss?

My guess is it's not a needle mover for him but Ole Miss does not fulfill both of those objectives.

 

[menobrown]

3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now

Not sure any of those teams would make him want to come out if he was otherwise planning on staying but he may not more ok with the Browns then we think. Haslem and Peyton go way back, and he'd probably be in a dome by his 4th season.

 

[Ilov80s]

3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now

Not sure any of those teams would make him want to come out if he was otherwise planning on staying but he may not more ok with the Browns then we think. Haslem and Peyton go way back, and he'd probably be in a dome by his 4th season.

I think it's less about changing his plans and more about just taking the opportunity when it's there. Say he throws for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs, is a Hesiman finalist, takes Texas to a deep playoff run. He would be the projected 1.01 and reality is there is nowhere to go but down from there.

 

[menobrown]

3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now

Not sure any of those teams would make him want to come out if he was otherwise planning on staying but he may not more ok with the Browns then we think. Haslem and Peyton go way back, and he'd probably be in a dome by his 4th season.

I think it's less about changing his plans and more about just taking the opportunity when it's there. Say he throws for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs, is a Hesiman finalist, takes Texas to a deep playoff run. He would be the projected 1.01 and reality is there is nowhere to go but down from there.

Thanks for your input but just not at all the way I see it. His uncles were in similar situation and remained in school and they had a lot more experience then he has. So to be clear I think his decision coming out will not in any shape, form or way be based on his draft stock. He's staying unless a team can get him he views as a perfect fit to not want to risk it waiting another year for the unknown.

 

[Ilov80s]

3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now

Not sure any of those teams would make him want to come out if he was otherwise planning on staying but he may not more ok with the Browns then we think. Haslem and Peyton go way back, and he'd probably be in a dome by his 4th season.

I think it's less about changing his plans and more about just taking the opportunity when it's there. Say he throws for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs, is a Hesiman finalist, takes Texas to a deep playoff run. He would be the projected 1.01 and reality is there is nowhere to go but down from there.

Thanks for your input but just not at all the way I see it. His uncles were in similar situation and remained in school and they had a lot more experience then he has. So to be clear I think his decision coming out will not in any shape, form or way be based on his draft stock. He's staying unless a team can get him he views as a perfect fit to not want to risk it waiting another year for the unknown.

Is that why they both stayed another year? I don't recall the discourse at the time. I see Eli had a down junior year so I thought maybe that was his thought process. He threw 10 less TDs than the year before and saw his completion % drop tpo 58. 21 TDs-15 Interceptions. He didn't get any honors. I am pretty sure Carson Palmer was going 1.01 that draft no matter what. Even when Eli did come out, they had to manipulate the situation and he wasn't even the clear top QB anyway. Even when Peyton came out senior year, there was no guarantee the Colts didn't prefer Leaf which would have meant the Chragers were taking Peyton and we know how the Manning family would have felt about that. It's just kind of luck that it worked out how it did.

Also it was bad decision making for Peyton not going pro afer his junior year because he didn't like the teams. The teams with the top 5 picks in that 1997 draft were:

Rams- on the verge of the Greatest Show on Turf
Raiders- on the verge of becoming an AFC powerhouse and SB team
Ravens- about to build the best defense ever and win a SB
Seahawks- About to become offensive juggernaut
Lions- ok, they were right about that situation

 

[menobrown]

3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now

Not sure any of those teams would make him want to come out if he was otherwise planning on staying but he may not more ok with the Browns then we think. Haslem and Peyton go way back, and he'd probably be in a dome by his 4th season.

I think it's less about changing his plans and more about just taking the opportunity when it's there. Say he throws for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs, is a Hesiman finalist, takes Texas to a deep playoff run. He would be the projected 1.01 and reality is there is nowhere to go but down from there.

Thanks for your input but just not at all the way I see it. His uncles were in similar situation and remained in school and they had a lot more experience then he has. So to be clear I think his decision coming out will not in any shape, form or way be based on his draft stock. He's staying unless a team can get him he views as a perfect fit to not want to risk it waiting another year for the unknown.

Is that why they both stayed another year? I don't recall the discourse at the time. I see Eli had a down junior year so I thought maybe that was his thought process. He threw 10 less TDs than the year before and saw his completion % drop tpo 58. 21 TDs-15 Interceptions. He didn't get any honors. I am pretty sure Carson Palmer was going 1.01 that draft no matter what. Even when Eli did come out, they had to manipulate the situation and he wasn't even the clear top QB anyway. Even when Peyton came out senior year, there was no guarantee the Colts didn't prefer Leaf which would have meant the Chragers were taking Peyton and we know how the Manning family would have felt about that. It's just kind of luck that it worked out how it did.

Also it was bad decision making for Peyton not going pro afer his junior year because he didn't like the teams. The teams with the top 5 picks in that 1997 draft were:

Rams- on the verge of the Greatest Show on Turf
Raiders- on the verge of becoming an AFC powerhouse and SB team
Ravens- about to build the best defense ever and win a SB
Seahawks- About to become offensive juggernaut
Lions- ok, they were right about that situation

I think Peyton would have gone 1.1 with ease and Eli would have gone top 5 if they had come out a year earlier.

Eli's senior year was not that much better then his junior year and neither as good as his sophomore season and in a class with Rivers and Big Ben he was clearly the top QB prospect for teams to the point the Chargers tried in vein to get him to come to them. Not sure what you mean about him not being the clear cut top QB when he came out? Chargers took him against his will and then got a haul to basically trade him for the second QB taken in that draft at pick 4.

So yeah I think both of them would have gone 1.1 or high enough for it be negligible and both of them had a ton of experience which Arch does not have and they still stayed in school.

Now with Arch you have copious amounts of more family money then when his two uncles came out, he's personally making millions, and he badly needs actual game experience. I truly see the only scenario he would come out would be if a perfect sitaution, like the Rams obtaining a pick to get him, was in place.

 

[Ilov80s]

3. Browns- yeah, nobody wants to land there right now

Not sure any of those teams would make him want to come out if he was otherwise planning on staying but he may not more ok with the Browns then we think. Haslem and Peyton go way back, and he'd probably be in a dome by his 4th season.

I think it's less about changing his plans and more about just taking the opportunity when it's there. Say he throws for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs, is a Hesiman finalist, takes Texas to a deep playoff run. He would be the projected 1.01 and reality is there is nowhere to go but down from there.

Thanks for your input but just not at all the way I see it. His uncles were in similar situation and remained in school and they had a lot more experience then he has. So to be clear I think his decision coming out will not in any shape, form or way be based on his draft stock. He's staying unless a team can get him he views as a perfect fit to not want to risk it waiting another year for the unknown.

Is that why they both stayed another year? I don't recall the discourse at the time. I see Eli had a down junior year so I thought maybe that was his thought process. He threw 10 less TDs than the year before and saw his completion % drop tpo 58. 21 TDs-15 Interceptions. He didn't get any honors. I am pretty sure Carson Palmer was going 1.01 that draft no matter what. Even when Eli did come out, they had to manipulate the situation and he wasn't even the clear top QB anyway. Even when Peyton came out senior year, there was no guarantee the Colts didn't prefer Leaf which would have meant the Chragers were taking Peyton and we know how the Manning family would have felt about that. It's just kind of luck that it worked out how it did.

Also it was bad decision making for Peyton not going pro afer his junior year because he didn't like the teams. The teams with the top 5 picks in that 1997 draft were:

Rams- on the verge of the Greatest Show on Turf
Raiders- on the verge of becoming an AFC powerhouse and SB team
Ravens- about to build the best defense ever and win a SB
Seahawks- About to become offensive juggernaut
Lions- ok, they were right about that situation

I think Peyton would have gone 1.1 with ease and Eli would have gone top 5 if they had come out a year earlier.

Eli's senior year was not that much better then his junior year and neither as good as his sophomore season and in a class with Rivers and Big Ben he was clearly the top QB prospect for teams to the point the Chargers tried in vein to get him to come to them. Not sure what you mean about him not being the clear cut top QB when he came out? Chargers took him against his will and then got a haul to basically trade him for the second QB taken in that draft at pick 4.

So yeah I think both of them would have gone 1.1 or high enough for it be negligible and both of them had a ton of experience which Arch does not have and they still stayed in school.

Now with Arch you have copious amounts of more family money then when his two uncles came out, he's personally making millions, and he badly needs actual game experience. I truly see the only scenario he would come out would be if a perfect sitaution, like the Rams obtaining a pick to get him, was in place.

Only thing I will push against is that Eli's senior year wasn't much better than his junior year. As a senior, he won the Maxwell, threw 8 more TDs, 5 less Ints, 200 more yards, +4% completion, was a Heisman Finalist.

 

[-OZ-]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

100% agree. Likely he is in no rush and I am sure his family would recommend the same. If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

It almost sounds like fan fiction but if either the saints or colts get the top pick the chances of Arch leaving escalate. I still don’t think that makes it a lock but far more likely than the raiders (not likely the top pick anyway), Jags or Browns (same result for either).
Giants would be interesting and seems a fair chance to be the top pick.

Ultimately, I think Arch is hyped too much anyway.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

100% agree. Likely he is in no rush and I am sure his family would recommend the same. If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

It almost sounds like fan fiction but if either the saints or colts get the top pick the chances of Arch leaving escalate. I still don’t think that makes it a lock but far more likely than the raiders (not likely the top pick anyway), Jags or Browns (same result for either).
Giants would be interesting and seems a fair chance to be the top pick.

Ultimately, I think Arch is hyped too much anyway.

It will be fun to watch the kid play this fall. There will be plenty of time to evaluate the hype over the next two seasons. I wouldn’t bet against him, but we have not seen enough to really establish much thought of him as a quarterback. Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

 

[menobrown]

Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Archie had wheels.

 

[JohnnyU]

Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Archie had wheels.

Yes, but he didn’t know where he was going with an aints bag over his helmet.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Archie had wheels.

Before my time of fandom…

 

[menobrown]

Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Archie had wheels.

Before my time of fandom…

Me to but I had seen enough highlights growing up that when Peyton first started in college I just assumed he could move really well and recall being surprised he was such a statue. Not quite the same way I was surprised that Sheduer Sanders is not really very athletic, but along those lines.

 

[JohnnyU]

Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Archie had wheels.

Before my time of fandom…

Some truly bad Saints teams. However, Archie Manning and Danny Abramowicz were fun to watch. Especially Abramowicz before Manning arrived. He had a couple decent years with Manning too. Not much to root for with those bad Saints teams. I do remember Dempsey’s kick to beat the Lions. It was the only game on at the time.

 

[-OZ-]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

100% agree. Likely he is in no rush and I am sure his family would recommend the same. If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

It almost sounds like fan fiction but if either the saints or colts get the top pick the chances of Arch leaving escalate. I still don’t think that makes it a lock but far more likely than the raiders (not likely the top pick anyway), Jags or Browns (same result for either).
Giants would be interesting and seems a fair chance to be the top pick.

Ultimately, I think Arch is hyped too much anyway.

It will be fun to watch the kid play this fall. There will be plenty of time to evaluate the hype over the next two seasons. I wouldn’t bet against him, but we have not seen enough to really establish much thought of him as a quarterback. Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Oh he absolutely could develop. But if he weren’t a manning few would care yet.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

100% agree. Likely he is in no rush and I am sure his family would recommend the same. If someone like the Colts end up falling apart it may get interesting.

The only way Arch Manning would come out in next years draft would be if a team he thought was absolutely ideal had the draft pick he knew for sure they could and would use to draft him. Other then that, pretty close to zero chance.

If the Saints have the #1 pick, it may be hard to turn that down.

It almost sounds like fan fiction but if either the saints or colts get the top pick the chances of Arch leaving escalate. I still don’t think that makes it a lock but far more likely than the raiders (not likely the top pick anyway), Jags or Browns (same result for either).
Giants would be interesting and seems a fair chance to be the top pick.

Ultimately, I think Arch is hyped too much anyway.

It will be fun to watch the kid play this fall. There will be plenty of time to evaluate the hype over the next two seasons. I wouldn’t bet against him, but we have not seen enough to really establish much thought of him as a quarterback. Pumped to see a Manning with wheels however…

Oh he absolutely could develop. But if he weren’t a manning few would care yet.

I agree, the name brings the hype. He did show some savvy and playmaking ability when forced into the lineup. I think Sark did Ewers a huge favor by not making the switch this year, although maybe Manning just was not to the point where he could execute the majority of the offense.

 

[Mistakes Were Made]

I know all the talk is about Manning's choice, but there was an awesome profile of LaNorris in The Athletic. It's pay walled, but I think I love him and his dad. Dad still drives an old beat up ride because it reminds him of going to all the camps. LaNorris turned down as much as $8 mill because he's focused on things other than the cash.

I kind of think these guys parallel in a weird way. If they're both Heisman finalists this year (and I don't care about Heisman votes; only meant as shorthand for having a great season), I imagine we will see a boatload of stories about how they came from way different backgrounds to kind of meet up at the top of the sport. Tom Rinaldi is already getting to voice over ready.

I think most everyone assumes Arch stays even if he puts up a top-2 pick level season and most everyone assumes LaNorris comes out if he puts up a top-2 pick level season. I think they're both going to be watching fit a lot more than what "most everyone assumes" currently. Wouldn't be surprised to see both in the 26 draft. Wouldn't be surprised to see them in 27. Or any other outcome.

Very great thread idea. I think they're both going to be high-value dynasty players until/unless they absolutely prove they cannot do it. That's mainly true of any first round QB, but these guys are going to hold value.

 

[menobrown]

I imagine we will see a boatload of stories about how they came from way different backgrounds to kind of meet up at the top of the sport.

Read that article, for sure an easy guy to pull for. Nice post, questionable avatar choice though, lol.

On the bolded part I think the top of the QB class is super wide open. Saw a dual list on ESPN today where both had Klubnik as their top QB, Sellers was 2 and 4, both left of Arch I assume on the same notion they don't think he's coming out. Of course opinions differ and Bruglers mock had Arch going 1, Sellers 2 which you likely saw. Will be interesting seeing how the class shapes up and seems almost every single year someone comes from out of the blue.

On the different backgrounds part I got curious about something and got some absolutely useless info to share because we all know the main point. The Manning family has a lot of money in it and financially speaking there is no sense of urgency, even realizing how important it is to speed up the process to get that second QB contract.

But just the same I knew that Arch was paid well in NIL funds, and have long heard his dad, Cooper, was highly successful. So I was trying to look up estimated net worth of family money that was not from Peyton or Eli.

Both Arch and his dad have estimated net worths of $13m each, what really surprised me was that both are higher then Archie($10M) which if true now makes the family patriarch the 5th highest net worth in the family.

 

[Mistakes Were Made]

I imagine we will see a boatload of stories about how they came from way different backgrounds to kind of meet up at the top of the sport.

On the bolded part I think the top of the QB class is super wide open. Saw a dual list on ESPN today where both had Klubnik as their top QB, Sellers was 2 and 4, both left of Arch I assume on the same notion they don't think he's coming out. Of course opinions differ and Bruglers mock had Arch going 1, Sellers 2 which you likely saw. Will be interesting seeing how the class shapes up and seems almost every single year someone comes from out of the blue.

10000% agree. My posts is based on if they both put up seasons that would see them in the top X picks. If neither has a top half of the first round grade, then I think going back to school will be an easy choice.

ETA: I think Allar or Nussmeier would have found a team to pick them in the first round this year had they come out. So there's precedent for going back to school

 

[need2know]

Would like to see manning play a whole season before hes ranked so high. Not sure he lives up to the name

 

[Mistakes Were Made]

Would like to see manning play a whole season before hes ranked so high. Not sure he lives up to the name

Maybe not. He was a super elite recruit, but so was Quinn Ewers

 

[Desert_Power]

LaNorris Sellers falls somewhere between Justin Fields and Cam Newton, imo. He still has room to grow as a passer, but his fantasy ceiling is very high.

Listed as 6'3" and 240 lbs so that is about right (Bigger than Fields/smaller than Cam). I think he got better as the season went on and there were times he realized that nobody can really solo tackle him at the second level. OL was poor all year and it felt like his decision making was initially a bit slow. Saw more involvement of Mike Shula who is now the OC and has worked with the Josh Allen Bills prior. Cannon for an arm.

A lot of upside here if he can also prove to be an accurate passer.

 

[Lehigh98]

LaNorris Sellers falls somewhere between Justin Fields and Cam Newton, imo. He still has room to grow as a passer, but his fantasy ceiling is very high.

Listed as 6'3" and 240 lbs so that is about right (Bigger than Fields/smaller than Cam). I think he got better as the season went on and there were times he realized that nobody can really solo tackle him at the second level. OL was poor all year and it felt like his decision making was initially a bit slow. Saw more involvement of Mike Shula who is now the OC and has worked with the Josh Allen Bills prior. Cannon for an arm.

A lot of upside here if he can also prove to be an accurate passer.

Ah, the old siren song.

 

[Desert_Power]

LaNorris Sellers falls somewhere between Justin Fields and Cam Newton, imo. He still has room to grow as a passer, but his fantasy ceiling is very high.

Listed as 6'3" and 240 lbs so that is about right (Bigger than Fields/smaller than Cam). I think he got better as the season went on and there were times he realized that nobody can really solo tackle him at the second level. OL was poor all year and it felt like his decision making was initially a bit slow. Saw more involvement of Mike Shula who is now the OC and has worked with the Josh Allen Bills prior. Cannon for an arm.

A lot of upside here if he can also prove to be an accurate passer.

Ah, the old siren song.

Yep. It helps that he seems to have a decent grounding, but still a lot to find out.