Are certain matchups more predictable due to ___ (1 Viewer)

[kensat30]

This past weekend got me thinking about certain conditions that can affect the outcome of a game.

When I analyze games for the coming weeks, I use many factors to influence my decisions on who to start for my fantasy squad. AFC vs. NFC, home vs. away, coming off bye week, coming off Monday nighter, weather, point spread, over/under, etc. This is in addition to the breakdown of the offensive and defensive matchups and how I think the game is going to be played out.

My question to you: How do you weigh each of these conditions in your analysis, if at all? Can you research these conditions using data dominator or another source? I'm a superstitous player and I tend to believe things before having the proof (ie Madden curse, Super Bowl loser curse). Do you use statistics or gut instinct to determine fact vs. fiction?

Is AFC/NFC really a higher scoring game?

Is a team coming off a bye really at an advantage?

Does Monday Night hangover effect cause teams to suffer a performance decline the following Sunday?

 

[Sidewinder]

This past weekend got me thinking about certain conditions that can affect the outcome of a game. When I analyze games for the coming weeks, I use many factors to influence my decisions on who to start for my fantasy squad. AFC vs. NFC...Is AFC/NFC really a higher scoring game?Is a team coming off a bye really at an advantage?Does Monday Night hangover effect cause teams to suffer a performance decline the following Sunday?

Here are some numbers, draw your own conclusions:League scoring (overall): 41.47 pts per game (ppg) for the 114 games that have been playedAFC/NFC games: 45.33 ppg for the 33 AFC/NFC games that have been playedRemoving the AFC-NFC games from the total: 39.90 ppg for all non-AFC/NFC gamesGame following BYE week: teams are 12-12 (there were 2 games where both teams in a game were coming off byes: Balt @ NO, SF @ Chic)Week following MNF game (all): teams are 7-8 (one team on bye)Week following MNF win: teams are 5-2 (Chic had bye)Week following MNF loss: teams are 2-6