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Are Fantasy "experts" to blame for Deangelo Williams hate? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Maven
- Start date
Avery
Footballguy
He couldn't break the starting lineup his first two seasons and it's not like he was behind Tomlinson. I'm not saying he isn't a very good back and you can argue that it is more on Fox than him, but most RBs tend to make a splash right away. A slow start to his NFL probably soured many fantasy owners on him and left others feeling that perhaps last year was more of an aberration then the rule going forward for Williams.
So I don't think the "experts" are necessarily down on him. I think his history in the NFL, albeit a short one, is leaving some with questions about his studliness going forward.
So I don't think the "experts" are necessarily down on him. I think his history in the NFL, albeit a short one, is leaving some with questions about his studliness going forward.
the turnip
Footballguy
His fantasy playoff schedule frightens me.
Garts
Footballguy
John Fox loves vets...maybe that's why Williams couldn't overtake Foster...and his pass protection wasn't the greatest early on.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Hate?
Maven
Footballguy
Yes..a tall glass of Haterade, sir.
Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
Short answer is NO
Go ahead and draft him.
The difference is schedule this year vs last is huge.
The playoff schedule is brutal.
50% of his TDs were in three games.
The mistake most fantasy players make is using last years stats (good or bad) rather than projecting what this year will be.
Go ahead and draft him.
The difference is schedule this year vs last is huge.
The playoff schedule is brutal.
50% of his TDs were in three games.
The mistake most fantasy players make is using last years stats (good or bad) rather than projecting what this year will be.
Uhhh, what hate? I have him 3rd overall redraft (3 other FBGs have him either 3 or 4 in that paradigm) and 4th overall redraft-PPR.
Here's my take (from my notes on the rankings board):
My .02.
Here's my take (from my notes on the rankings board):
The team has no legit #3 WR (although Gary Barnidge seems to be a legit pass-catching TE a la Kris Mangum) so I have Williams down for 30-40 receptions this year despite Mike Goodson. I appreciate that the OP agrees with my "eccentric" ranking but I think painting all "experts" with a broad brush here at FBG's is a misguided path.
My .02.
Who does DeAngelo hate?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It took Tiki Barber awhile for the Giants to give him the starting job also. All he had in front of him was Ron Dayne.Teams will stick with thier program. They are not trying to develop one player but all of them. Including the incumbants who may not have earned keeping thier starting slot as long as they did playing subpar football. However teams think about things in terms on contracts.. picks invested.. if they already paid the guy they let him play. No need to wear down the future of the francise when you have another guy already paid to do the heavy lifting.Fox comes from the Giants. I saw history repeating itself again within a week of DeAngelo Being drafted.. but I hoped I was wrong and Williams talent would shine through enough for him to win the job sooner. Main thing that held Williams back from more playing time was his pass protection. It was clear to me from game 1 of Williams vs. The Vikings defense. Foster is an ok RB.. he has a nice mix of power and speed with some decent cut back ability also.. but injuries robbed him of the talent he once had.. and the Vikings defense was handing him easily.. then Williams comes in for a couple plays mid 3rd Q.. breaks off a 50+ run on like his only 2nd or 3rd attempt.. then they went to Williams a little more at the end of the game since he was the only spark..Why did he disapear for so long after this has always puzzled me.IIRC with Tiki Barber it was rumored issue with fumbling that held him back.. even though the talent was clearly there.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Priest Holmes played behind scrubs for 3 yearsMichael Turner played behind LT for 2 yearsSteven Jackson played behind an ineffective Faulk for a yearLarry Johnson played behind Priest for 2 yearsThomas Jones sucked for many yearsSean Alexander played behind Ricky for a yearMarion Barber behind Julius Jones for 2 yearsMJD played behind Fred Taylor for 3 years (bust was effective anyway of course)Tiki Barber played behind scrubs for 3+ yearsNot all RBs make a splash right away. Some of those guys are among the best fantasy backs of all time, and some are CURRENTLY considered easy top 5. Most of them were at least top 3 at some point in there careers.It really depends VERY heavily on the coach, the team, the other backs on the team, etc. It isn't always about JUST talent.I'm just sayin'.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Williams' schedule was only barely below average last yearWhile the schedule looks harder this year, I think "huge" is overstating things.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.
well over 50% of LTs TDs were in 3 games.7/15 of Brandon Jacob's TDs were in 3 games.75% of Steven Jackson TDs were in 3 games.I just listed 10 out of the 11 best runners (by yardage) in the NFL last year. Forte is really the only guy to spread them out he had 5 of 12 of his TDs in 3 games.I guess you can see my point is that the above stat is not particularly informative. Very nearly every guy who has a good year has that year partially fueled by big games for big points. It just works out that way. Certainly no reason to downgrade a guy.But if you are looking for TD "consistency" maybe you should look for a guy who scored at least one TD in 11 of his last 13 games, with 178 rushing yards in one of the games where he didn't score.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
That is some seriously solid pwnage.50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.
Jewell
Footballguy
I completely agree with this posting. I was in the midst of compiling this list myself. You can even go back further and include John Riggins who didn't fully hit stride until well into his career, and O.J. Simpson who had three mediocre years before becoming one of the best runners in the history of the game.
Avery
Footballguy
Obviously.The question is why some people are down on Williams. I think it's a reasonable that some people are down on him for his limited contributions in his first two seasons. The counter-argument is obvious; there are legitimate reasons why he was held back and there are great players who continued to flourish in a similar situation. Although I presented the argument to answer the OP's question, I don't happen to be down on him but know many that are.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I hear ya on answering the question. I agree that is the obvious reason some tend to discount him. I just don't think it's a particularly valid reason considering he generally looked pretty good when he got some time in his early seasons (especially 2007).Your "but most RBs tend to make a splash right away" is what I was primarily objecting to. I don't think that's true. Some do, some don't - even some of the great ones.
lod01
Footballguy
Fox totally missed on Williams' ability. He's the reason Williams wasn't a stud as a rookie.
lod01
Footballguy
Another mistake is when someone doesn't realize that a guy with a CAREER average of 5.1 ypc and who plays behind a stud OL, will kick as again.
Avery
Footballguy
Possibly valid. I was going with my gut which tells me that the RB position is generally the easiest transition from college and the easiest to produce right away. Honestly, I haven't really looked at the stats to see how many "greats" contribute right away. It would be interesting to see.I hear ya on answering the question. I agree that is the obvious reason some tend to discount him. I just don't think it's a particularly valid reason considering he generally looked pretty good when he got some time in his early seasons (especially 2007).Your "but most RBs tend to make a splash right away" is what I was primarily objecting to. I don't think that's true. Some do, some don't - even some of the great ones.Obviously.The question is why some people are down on Williams. I think it's a reasonable that some people are down on him for his limited contributions in his first two seasons. The counter-argument is obvious; there are legitimate reasons why he was held back and there are great players who continued to flourish in a similar situation. Although I presented the argument to answer the OP's question, I don't happen to be down on him but know many that are.I completely agree with this posting. I was in the midst of compiling this list myself. You can even go back further and include John Riggins who didn't fully hit stride until well into his career, and O.J. Simpson who had three mediocre years before becoming one of the best runners in the history of the game.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
If by "greats" you mean HOFers, probably a solid chunk of them came out gangbusters, but certainly not all of them. There are some "close to" HOFers on my list, and OJ was mentioned etc. But to us FF guys, some of the guys on my list ARE the greats. Who was better than Priest in his prime for FF? Alexander was ridiculous in his day setting TD records. Tiki toward the end was a very high pick.My thought is that while RB may be the easiest position to have a great rookie year, it doesn't necessary follow that you have to have a great rookie year to have a great career. Plenty of guys didn't.
IMO last year was just the beginninng for DWill.
If anyone remembers in training camp last year fantasty players thought it would be a 50-50 split with JStew taking over full duties late in the season. When preseason started all the panthers players and coaches were raving about DWill's new attitude and his wanting to be a team leader.
Sometimes thats all it takes to make that leap. Maybe he didnt care about pass protecting? Maybe he didn't care about practice? Maybe he just had an overall bad attitude? Maybe Fox knew that if he let an immature rookie be the stud he'd lose control?
I'm looking for good things out of DWill this year. Delhomme has another year of recovery under him and the Oline is returning fully intact. If Jarrett would ever step up and be half as good as he should be the panthers O would be lethal.
If anyone remembers in training camp last year fantasty players thought it would be a 50-50 split with JStew taking over full duties late in the season. When preseason started all the panthers players and coaches were raving about DWill's new attitude and his wanting to be a team leader.
Sometimes thats all it takes to make that leap. Maybe he didnt care about pass protecting? Maybe he didn't care about practice? Maybe he just had an overall bad attitude? Maybe Fox knew that if he let an immature rookie be the stud he'd lose control?
I'm looking for good things out of DWill this year. Delhomme has another year of recovery under him and the Oline is returning fully intact. If Jarrett would ever step up and be half as good as he should be the panthers O would be lethal.
Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
And its one of the hardest this year that difference is huge
Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
DWill had 11 Tds in three games. I don't think you can expect anything close to that again this year.50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.well over 50% of LTs TDs were in 3 games.7/15 of Brandon Jacob's TDs were in 3 games.75% of Steven Jackson TDs were in 3 games.I just listed 10 out of the 11 best runners (by yardage) in the NFL last year. Forte is really the only guy to spread them out he had 5 of 12 of his TDs in 3 games.I guess you can see my point is that the above stat is not particularly informative. Very nearly every guy who has a good year has that year partially fueled by big games for big points. It just works out that way. Certainly no reason to downgrade a guy.But if you are looking for TD "consistency" maybe you should look for a guy who scored at least one TD in 11 of his last 13 games, with 178 rushing yards in one of the games where he didn't score.
joefootball
Footballguy
And wouldnt it be safe to assume you would be 3-0 in those 3 games?DWill had 11 Tds in three games. I don't think you can expect anything close to that again this year.50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.
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Yellow Line is Unoffcial
Footballguy
If you are playing in a league that starts 0 QBs 1 RB 0 WRs yes. What a stupid questionAnd wouldnt it be safe to assume you would be 3-0 in those 3 games?DWill had 11 Tds in three games. I don't think you can expect anything close to that again this year.50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.well over 50% of LTs TDs were in 3 games.7/15 of Brandon Jacob's TDs were in 3 games.75% of Steven Jackson TDs were in 3 games.I just listed 10 out of the 11 best runners (by yardage) in the NFL last year. Forte is really the only guy to spread them out he had 5 of 12 of his TDs in 3 games.I guess you can see my point is that the above stat is not particularly informative. Very nearly every guy who has a good year has that year partially fueled by big games for big points. It just works out that way. Certainly no reason to downgrade a guy.But if you are looking for TD "consistency" maybe you should look for a guy who scored at least one TD in 11 of his last 13 games, with 178 rushing yards in one of the games where he didn't score.
joefootball
Footballguy
Why so angry? Its a rhetorical question. Chances are if you have 1 player who can score 11 tds in 3 games you are going to win those games because he dominated so much if you got anything else from the rest of your squad. The point is 3 games is alot of games to win in a season from 1 guy. And yes I plan on going 3-0 if one of my players can score 11 tds unless I am a complete fool and I'm starting Cade McNown at QB.If you are playing in a league that starts 0 QBs 1 RB 0 WRs yes. What a stupid questionAnd wouldnt it be safe to assume you would be 3-0 in those 3 games?DWill had 11 Tds in three games. I don't think you can expect anything close to that again this year.50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.
MCguidance
Footballguy
How is that stupid? It's just making the point that with a 20+ TD guy, he's going to have blow up games, and in those games you are likely to win if you have him. Can't hold some great games against a guy.If you are playing in a league that starts 0 QBs 1 RB 0 WRs yes. What a stupid questionAnd wouldnt it be safe to assume you would be 3-0 in those 3 games?DWill had 11 Tds in three games. I don't think you can expect anything close to that again this year.50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.
Aren't you guilty of that when you are basing his schedule off of last year's defenses?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
It may be the hardest on paper, but that's why they play the games. Looking at their schedule, I'm not really sure that it will be that brutal. I'll take talent and a great offensive line any day.The Giants have one of the best defensive fronts in the league, and D-Will absolutely pasted them this week.
gregjcross
Footballguy
50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.well over 50% of LTs TDs were in 3 games.7/15 of Brandon Jacob's TDs were in 3 games.75% of Steven Jackson TDs were in 3 games.I just listed 10 out of the 11 best runners (by yardage) in the NFL last year. Forte is really the only guy to spread them out he had 5 of 12 of his TDs in 3 games.I guess you can see my point is that the above stat is not particularly informative. Very nearly every guy who has a good year has that year partially fueled by big games for big points. It just works out that way. Certainly no reason to downgrade a guy.But if you are looking for TD "consistency" maybe you should look for a guy who scored at least one TD in 11 of his last 13 games, with 178 rushing yards in one of the games where he didn't score.
With a rear-ward looking perspective perhaps that difference is sizable. Please break down for us how the difference from last year to this results in a huge differential. Free Agency, draft 2009, etc. TIA. MW
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
What the heck is going on in here? People think that people are down on Williams because he didn't make a huge splash his first 2 years? What?
No, people are "down" (and I use the term down loosely here, since he's still a 1st rounder for most) on Williams because they see an extremely talented back behind him and see it as unlikely that Carolina as a team repeats those ungodly rushing numbers again. Dwill didn't really blow up last year until Stewart got that nagging hammy, and it's very unlikely that Carolina's running game will again combine for damn near 3000 yards and 30 TDs, that kind of record breaking production just doesn't repeat itself often. So, at least early in the offseason, people saw him getting a smaller chunk of a smaller pie.
Now, personally I'm very high on DeAngelo this year. With Stewart already having a nagging injury, I see him being even less impactful than last year and am very confident in DeAngelo. But that said, the fact that people in here can't even see the reason some people are down on him shows an extreme lack of foresight and even the slimmest depth of fantasy thought.
No, people are "down" (and I use the term down loosely here, since he's still a 1st rounder for most) on Williams because they see an extremely talented back behind him and see it as unlikely that Carolina as a team repeats those ungodly rushing numbers again. Dwill didn't really blow up last year until Stewart got that nagging hammy, and it's very unlikely that Carolina's running game will again combine for damn near 3000 yards and 30 TDs, that kind of record breaking production just doesn't repeat itself often. So, at least early in the offseason, people saw him getting a smaller chunk of a smaller pie.
Now, personally I'm very high on DeAngelo this year. With Stewart already having a nagging injury, I see him being even less impactful than last year and am very confident in DeAngelo. But that said, the fact that people in here can't even see the reason some people are down on him shows an extreme lack of foresight and even the slimmest depth of fantasy thought.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
This is the correct answer.
Baron Samedi
Footballguy
pwned50% of Peterson's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Turner's TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Portis TDs were in 3 games.50+% of Thomas Jones' TDs were in 3 games.50% of Steve Slaton's TDs were in 3 games.50% of Chris Johnson TDs were in 3 games.75% of Ryan Grant's TDs were in 3 games.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I think both reasons are prominent. If DWill was a viable fantasy starter in his first two years and THEN had the year he had last year, a lot of people would think VERY differently of him, Stewart or no Stewart. It's not really all that valid IMO, but I do think it's a factor.Stewart is a big concern for folks as well, but I wasn't responding to that part. I think that's actually a more valid concern (but still not one I tend to agree with).
The "his numbers were too high, so I'll downgrade him" theory ALWAYS blows my mind. If that's not the dumbest reason to downgrade a guy, I don't know what it. Of COURSE he is likely to regress from those monumental numbers (or Carolina if folks prefer that), but that doesn't mean he couldn't still be one of the most LIKELY guys to put up something close to them.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
many fantasy 'experts' had DWill pegged as being unable to repeat last years incredible performance, and that J. Stewart was going to get a bigger piece of the RB pie in 2009.but J. Stewart cannot stay healthy, something tells me the achilles problem isn't going away anytime soon..I'd bet there is a good chance at some point this season,that the Panthers just shut him down for the year ( IR)..at that point,they'd lean heavily on Dwill..
I hope everyone considers Dwill a second rounder, I'd love to pluck him off the wire with a late first round pick
I hope everyone considers Dwill a second rounder, I'd love to pluck him off the wire with a late first round pick
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think these arguments are pretty lousy. Anybody that has watched Williams can see that he's also very talented. He averaged 4.1 ypc his first year, 5.0 his second and a ridiculous 5.5 last year. And the hype over Stewart is a tad bit ridiculous. The guy may be talented, but he's not the second coming of Barry Sanders or Jim Brown. Some people just always want to be buying into backups because they feel good when they spot the Next Big Thing before anyone else. Does anyone remember the drooling over Kevan Barlow or Lamont Jordan? Personally, I'll take the guy with the huge numbers last year who is the starter and who isn't as injury prone.
plymkr
Footballguy
Many people have SJax at 4...I fell into that trap last year. No Thankyou. I am taking DWill at 4 and trying to nab Stewart later (8th if possible) or I'll take Brady just to be safe.
In my first pick, I want production. The old saying: You can't win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it.
In my first pick, I want production. The old saying: You can't win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it.
Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
Right, this definitely matters to me. I want to bang my head against the keyboard every time I hear anyone talk about any RB getting better due to more experience...it's like the only position that has close to a zero learning curve.edit: not surprisingly you have sparked a laundry list of terrible analogies.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I'm not going to do the work, but I can almost guarantee you that if you take all of the guys who start their first two years, the average of the second year will be better than the average of the first one (despite the "sophmore slump" theory). I think Drinen did a study on when RBs hit the peak, and it wasn't their rookie year.Guys most definitely improve over their rookie years. I agree that there is a SMALLER learning curve for RBs than most positions, but there is certainly still a learning curve.But aside from that, I don't think Williams was better last year because of a learning curve per se, I think he was better because he was in a better situation, and put more work in during the off-season.
Food for thought: Only 18 RB's have ever scored 20+ combined TD's in a year. Won't bother to list them, but it's a who's who of RB's as you would expect. Only 5 of those have done it twice:
Emmitt Smith
Marshall Faulk
Priest Holmes
Shaun Alexander
Ladainian Tomlinson
For one thing, DeAngelo is in some select company which bodes well for him. For another, it's very rare for a RB to put up that kind of production, much less repeat it.
Emmitt Smith
Marshall Faulk
Priest Holmes
Shaun Alexander
Ladainian Tomlinson
For one thing, DeAngelo is in some select company which bodes well for him. For another, it's very rare for a RB to put up that kind of production, much less repeat it.
Maven
Footballguy
Does that justify his current ADP of 1.11?
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Not to mention that the Panthers did have some injuries on the oline last year, so it's not like they were abnormally healthy and everyone started all 16 games. With all the starters returning, you've got to love it.
Not sure what you're asking here? He is currently the 8th RB off the table in PPR drafts. Even though he's also not a prolific pass catcher, it would seem more likely to me that most people don't expect him to repeat his rushing performance from last year.Personally, I have him ranked around RB 3 in non-ppr, around 5 or 6 in PPR redraft.
