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Are the 1st 3 picks already set in stone? (1 Viewer)

shadyridr

Footballguy
Houston will clearly take Bush #1NO needs a QB so they take Leinart. Leinart was considered the better prospect and maybe tired of a scrambling QB (Brooks) the Saints decide to take the prototypical pocket passer over Young.Tenn takes Young with his mentor McNair tutoring him for one year before he takes over.

 

P Boy

Footballguy
Hard to say. NFL GMs don't think like FFers (thank freakin' God!), so what we see is definitely not the same thing they're looking at. I would be amazed if D'Brickshaw doesn't move into the top 3 - a franchise OT is a very difficult thing to find in the NFL.I can still see a trade by HOU to move their #1 to another team - the holes in HOU's roster don't start with RB - they have some capable talent there. Their first priority ought to be finding a way to keep Carr from getting killed & giving him more than 2 seconds to throw the ball - which then brings A Johnson, Gaffney, and the rest of a fairly solid WR corps into play. They need some help badly on both sides of the line much, much more than they need a skill player - even if Bush pans out to be the stud he's been projected to be (which isn't a given, either).

 
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Spiderman

Footballguy
I'd say no. I wouldn't be shocked if due to the PR fallout of not drafting Young, the Texans look for an excuse to not take Bush...That's a long way off though. Even if they take Bush, I hardly think it is a lock that the Saints take Leinart. I think Leinart would be a nice fit for the offense already in place there (Horn, Stallworth and McCallister) since he is ready to play from Day 1, and has a solid cast around him, but Young may have more upside, and would add lots of excitemnt to NO...

 

sho nuff

Footballguy
I say no, because I think Houston may trade down.
I think the picks are still the same though...teams may change.But I do not see any way how the first three guys picked...in any order, are not Bush, Leinart, and Young.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I'd say Houston takes Young.  New Orlean takes Leinart or Bush, and the Titans take whoever is left.
The rumors are that Houston will pick up the option on Carr's contract. They wouldn't do that AND draft Young.Link.

Texans will draft Bush No. 1, report says

Houston would go with USC RB even if Texas QB Young enters draft

Mark J Terrill / AP

USC's Reggie Bush is one of the most heralded running backs in years.

NBCSports.com news services

Updated: 4:05 p.m. ET Jan. 8, 2006

Reggie Bush's subpar-for-him effort in the Rose Bowl apparently hasn't changed the find of the Houston Texans as to who will be the No. 1 pick in the draft.

The Texans will select the USC running back with the top pick if Bush decides to turn pro, team and league sources told ESPN.

ESPN said almost nothing will change that course, the sources say, even after the Texans received word Friday that Texas quarterback Vince Young is leaning strongly to also going pro. Young is a Houston native.

ESPN said the Texans will pick up an $8 million option on quarterback David Carr, who was the expansion team's first draft pick four years ago.

ESPN said Texans owner Bob McNair made the decision after getting extensive evaluations from various sources that strongly endorsed Carr, including a favorable report from Dan Reeves, the former longtime NFL coach hired last month as a consultant.

It seems a foregone conclusion that Bush will declare himself eligible for the 2006 draft.

Bush reportedly began the process of interviewing agents last month and has already started to narrow down his list.

The Los Angeles Daily News has already reported that Bush will turn pro. He is already being advised by Reebok representative Mike Ornstein, who previously worked for the Raiders, the paper reported.

The 6-foot, 200-pound junior has until Jan. 15 to declare.

League scouts, who are not permitted to discuss underclass candidates but typically do so in off-the-record conversations or evaluations that are not for attribution, certainly feel that Bush will be in the draft. Although the process of analyzing the 2006 draft class is still in its early stages, the strong consensus is that Bush would be the first player chosen.

Bush, who won the Heisman this season after rushing for 1,658 yards and 15 touchdowns, had said he would wait until after the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4 to make his decision.

USC coach Pete Carroll said he'll address future options with several players next week.

"We're going to meet with the whole team first," he said. "Everybody has to know what's going on. We'll focus on guys who are
 
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Encyclopedia Brown

Footballguy
I would be amazed if D'Brickshaw doesn't move into the top 3 - a franchise OT is a very difficult thing to find in the NFL.
Robert Gallery was hyped even more than D'Brickshaw and he's been anything but mediocre.I'm not keen on taking an OL this high.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I would be amazed if D'Brickshaw doesn't move into the top 3 - a franchise OT is a very difficult thing to find in the NFL.
Robert Gallery was hyped even more than D'Brickshaw and he's been anything but mediocre.I'm not keen on taking an OL this high.
You mean nothing but mediocre, right?On the other hand Jon Ogden has been pretty good. As has Orlando Pace.

 

helix

Footballguy
I would be amazed if D'Brickshaw doesn't move into the top 3 - a franchise OT is a very difficult thing to find in the NFL.
Robert Gallery was hyped even more than D'Brickshaw and he's been anything but mediocre.I'm not keen on taking an OL this high.
:thumbup: D'Brickshaw looks to be very overrated. I would not be surprised to see WJustice taken before D'Brick.

 

Spike

Footballguy
(I'm asking this question because I don't know the answer.)In regard to the Saints being "projected" to take Leinart, who do they have at right tackle? Does the fact that he will be the one to protect Leinart's blind side have any bearing on the Saints taking him as opposed to Young?I just don't know if, for example, the left tackle was a great one and the right tackle was a turnstile would have any input in the decision.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
Seeing Aaron Rodgers drop quite a bit last year, I'm not 100% certain that Leinart will remain the clear-cut #2 choice. Pre-draft workouts may shake things out a bit more.

 

Bloom

Moderator
(I'm asking this question because I don't know the answer.)

In regard to the Saints being "projected" to take Leinart, who do they have at right tackle? Does the fact that he will be the one to protect Leinart's blind side have any bearing on the Saints taking him as opposed to Young?

I just don't know if, for example, the left tackle was a great one and the right tackle was a turnstile would have any input in the decision.
Rookie Jamaal Brown who has played very well and more than justified the saints moving up to take him in the first round pick this year.
 

PACKER 7

Footballguy
I would be amazed if D'Brickshaw doesn't move into the top 3 - a franchise OT is a very difficult thing to find in the NFL.
Robert Gallery was hyped even more than D'Brickshaw and he's been anything but mediocre.I'm not keen on taking an OL this high.
You mean nothing but mediocre, right?On the other hand Jon Ogden has been pretty good. As has Orlando Pace.
That's true, but I heard that Ferguson isn't a great run blocker and his forte is pass blocking. I'm not sure I'd risk a 1st rounder on a guy who struggles to run block. Anyone else heard this about Ferguson? If it's BS I'm not sure just something I heard.
 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I think the Packers would have quite a dilemna at 5 if Leinart falls. I just can't see how they can take him. I'd like to see them get Super Mario personally.

 

Rayderr

Footballguy
I think the Packers would have quite a dilemna at 5 if Leinart falls. I just can't see how they can take him. I'd like to see them get Super Mario personally.
I don't think the Pack would give up on Rodgers. They'd most likely trade down in that situation.
 

doughboydeluxe

Footballguy
If the Texans are even considering the possibility of trading the #1 overall pick, they are doing the right thing in saying they will take Bush. Anyone trading into the #1 slot would be doing it to take Bush, and if they knew the Texans were not going to take Bush, it would decrease the leverage the Texans would have. So just because the Texans are saying they would take Bush with the #1 pick does not necessarily make it so.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
If the Texans are even considering the possibility of trading the #1 overall pick, they are doing the right thing in saying they will take Bush. Anyone trading into the #1 slot would be doing it to take Bush, and if they knew the Texans were not going to take Bush, it would decrease the leverage the Texans would have. So just because the Texans are saying they would take Bush with the #1 pick does not necessarily make it so.
:goodposting:
 

Weapon of Mass Instruction

Watch my feet!
Oh, I think Bush, Leinart and Young will be the first 3 picks alright. I just don't think we know which teams will be the ones making those picks.I can see any of the top 3 teams -- or all of them for that matter -- trading down. I feel confident that at least one of them will trade down.

 
Hard to say. NFL GMs don't think like FFers (thank freakin' God!), so what we see is definitely not the same thing they're looking at. I would be amazed if D'Brickshaw doesn't move into the top 3 - a franchise OT is a very difficult thing to find in the NFL.

I can still see a trade by HOU to move their #1 to another team - the holes in HOU's roster don't start with RB - they have some capable talent there. Their first priority ought to be finding a way to keep Carr from getting killed & giving him more than 2 seconds to throw the ball - which then brings A Johnson, Gaffney, and the rest of a fairly solid WR corps into play. They need some help badly on both sides of the line much, much more than they need a skill player - even if Bush pans out to be the stud he's been projected to be (which isn't a given, either).
:goodposting:
 

Reaper

Footballguy
(I'm asking this question because I don't know the answer.)

In regard to the Saints being "projected" to take Leinart, who do they have at right tackle?  Does the fact that he will be the one to protect Leinart's blind side have any bearing on the Saints taking him as opposed to Young?

I just don't know if, for example, the left tackle was a great one and the right tackle was a turnstile would have any input in the decision.
Rookie Jamaal Brown who has played very well and more than justified the saints moving up to take him in the first round pick this year.
I'd love to see a review of all the top OL from last year draft ....Barnes fell A LOT from preseason ratings - Was he worth it?

I was DYING for the Jets to grab one of these guys instead of a Kicker or even later - They made that Jolley trade and STILL could have had Barnes!!!!

1 13 13 Jammal Brown Saints Oklahoma

2 1 19 19 Alex Barron Rams Florida State

3 2 9 41 Michael Roos Titans Eastern Washington

4 2 17 49 Marcus Johnson Vikings Mississippi

5 2 20 52 Khalif Barnes Jaguars Washington

6 2 32 64 Adam Terry Ravens Syracuse

7 3 27 91 Chris Colmer Buccaneers North Carolina State

8 3 29 93 Trai Essex Steelers Northwestern

9 4 4 105 Ray Willis Seahawks Florida State

 
I say no, because I think Houston may trade down.
They could trade down to 3 with Tennessee and probably still get Bush. If anyone thinks they're set in stone at this point, well.... :eek:
Like has been said before, I think the players are but the teams aren't.
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will, and I don't see any "experts" around here.I'm not sure there really is any such thing as an expert when it comes to the draft. Most people don't give enough credence to the fact that most teams make most of their picks purely on a basis of need.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
 

Franknbeans

Footballguy
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
He said "pretty much". :shrug:
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Most people don't give enough credence to the fact that most teams make most of their picks purely on a basis of need.
I don't agree with this.
I agree with the disagreement.IIRC, the Niners were not too keen on taking a QB at #1 last year, but Smith was the top player in the draft, so they did so. No one wanted to trade up to get him.

Also, when the Bengals drafted Carson Palmer, Kitna had just put up a big year and QB was not necessarily the biggest area of need. But they had to take him at the #1 spot.

 

Kiddnets

Footballguy
Unless they trade up for Bush or he falls to them I just don't see the Jets selecting at #4. I can see the JEts trading up into the top 3 for a crack at Bush only. They will not spend the money for QB with Chad on the roster. They do need Bush to energize the franchise after this year's debacle. That is Bradaway's motto. Remember when the Redskins raided the JEts a few yrs ago? TB got killed in the papers and made the big trade to get d Rob at #4 to get some heat off him. What better way to get heat off then leave the draft with Bush! So it is not set in stone yet - I can see the JEts being major players in the top 3 before all is said and done. They have an extra 4th rder from Herm and will likely land another 3rd and 4th rder for losing Jordan and McKenzie who were not replaced by anything good. With the extra picks I can see the Jets giving up a solid package to entice Houston to drop to #4 and grab the OL they need. I also am not sold on Brick - haven't seen much of him but 297lbs does not sound like a can't miss OL prospect. The Gallery selection may make teams think twice before selcting an OL that high.

 

dgreen

Footballguy
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
:yawn: And the original poster said they "never" get it right. Sorry if my wording wasn't to your liking.

Point is, the experts are pretty darn good at the top of the draft.

 

Obie Wan

Footballguy
I say no, because I think Houston may trade down.
They could trade down to 3 with Tennessee and probably still get Bush. If anyone thinks they're set in stone at this point, well.... :eek:
I think Tennessee wants Cutler but is making noise about Young to induce a trade down.
 
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
:yawn: And the original poster said they "never" get it right. Sorry if my wording wasn't to your liking.

Point is, the experts are pretty darn good at the top of the draft.
Well, "at the top of the draft"... I mean, how few picks are we talking about here?Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.
Of course, the argument could be, considering the state that a lot of NFL teams are in, their GMs might be better served actually listening to Mel Kiper as to who they should draft.
 

WhoDat

Footballguy
Most people don't give enough credence to the fact that most teams make most of their picks purely on a basis of need.
First round especially the Top 15 picks will see teams take the best football player/playmaker/athlete available versus team need 9 out of 10 times. If given the choice between player A, who is far superior both on paper, measurables and film, versus player B, who fits a team need but is nowhere near the athlete on paper, measureables and film as player A, an NFL GM takes player A...every...single...time regardless. Athletes with an ability to make a difference win games. The goal, of course, is to find a blend of player A and player B, which would be what you want and need, but, given a choice between the two, a team is going to take player A, assuming they are picking towards the top of Round 1, nearly every time. You might need an OL but what you ultimately want is a player that will make an impact. Thus, your early pick is spent on the best player available. You can find what you need in rounds 2-7.
 
Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.
Of course, the argument could be, considering the state that a lot of NFL teams are in, their GMs might be better served actually listening to Mel Kiper as to who they should draft.
...or to ME!
 

Perry Van Hook

Footballguy
One thing I haven't heard or seen addressed yet is what The Cowboys interest is/should be in Young. Assuming that Houston does in fact take Bush (or even if they trade down) or do not take Young, why wouldn't the other Texas team, especially since they have a long term need at QB trade up to get Young?

 

Toxic Gatorade

Footballguy
I say no, because I think Houston may trade down.
They could trade down to 3 with Tennessee and probably still get Bush. If anyone thinks they're set in stone at this point, well.... :eek:
This is my hunch too.If the Titans were remotely worried about New Orleans drafting Vince Young instead of Matt Leinart, I can see a trade between the Titans/Texans.

 

kingmalaki

Footballguy
Houston will clearly take Bush #1

NO needs a QB so they take Leinart. Leinart was considered the better prospect and maybe tired of a scrambling QB (Brooks) the Saints decide to take the prototypical pocket passer over Young.

Tenn takes Young with his mentor McNair tutoring him for one year before he takes over.
I can't say that for sure (see bolded part). It seems like most of the fans here (in Houston) want Vince. RB is not our problem and QB's last longer.
 

msommer

Footballguy
Oh, I think Bush, Leinart and Young will be the first 3 picks alright. I just don't think we know which teams will be the ones making those picks.
I agree with this. In addition I believe that the order is not set at all. I would give decent odds on Bush being #1.

BUT if someone wants to be sure to get the one they like of Leinart and Young they have to trade to #1. A trade with NO will not necessarily land the right one.

The lithmus test on HOU wanting Regge Bush will be whether they really try to sign him before the draft. If not it is anybody's guess who of the three goes first.

 

dgreen

Footballguy
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
:yawn: And the original poster said they "never" get it right. Sorry if my wording wasn't to your liking.

Point is, the experts are pretty darn good at the top of the draft.
Well, "at the top of the draft"... I mean, how few picks are we talking about here?Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.
Well, we were talking about the top 3 picks. Now you say after picks 4 and 5, things get fuzzy? So, you agree the experts will be pretty good at picking the first three picks? ;) Anyways, I'm not sure if Kiper does mock drafts or whether he just ranks players. In other words, I think he comments more on what he thinks teams should do rather than what teams will do. Kiper is more of a talent evaluator than a guy with great team connections getting inside scoop like Chris Mortensen..

 

cstu

Footballguy
The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
:yawn: And the original poster said they "never" get it right. Sorry if my wording wasn't to your liking.

Point is, the experts are pretty darn good at the top of the draft.
Well, "at the top of the draft"... I mean, how few picks are we talking about here?Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.
They were very close last year in the ESPN special right before the draft - even calling Williamson to the Vikings.
 
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Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.
Of course, the argument could be, considering the state that a lot of NFL teams are in, their GMs might be better served actually listening to Mel Kiper as to who they should draft.
...or to ME!
...and actually, saying who teams should draft is not Kiper's job. Predicting who they will draft is his job.Edit: dgreen says otherwise. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's not my impression of his work.

 
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The draft never goes the way even the "experts" think it will
:confused: On draft day, the experts will pretty much nail the top few picks. They do every year.
yeah, they really nailed that Phillip Rivers debacle a couple of years ago. :no:
I don't think he said they were 100%. What's the point of citing one of the wildest draft day trades ever to prove that the experts don't get it right? Not a fair contrast, IMO.
He said they do every year. What's so hard to understand. :confused:
:yawn: And the original poster said they "never" get it right. Sorry if my wording wasn't to your liking.

Point is, the experts are pretty darn good at the top of the draft.
Well, "at the top of the draft"... I mean, how few picks are we talking about here?Point is, after the top 4 or 5 picks, year in and year out, I've sat and watched Kiper and others squirm and flounder as they get more wrong than right as the draft goes on...and after the first round, Kiper's just taking potshots, it seems. He knows the players, it's just he doesn't seem to know the team management guys that well, which is a large part of figuring out who's going where.
Well, we were talking about the top 3 picks. Now you say after picks 4 and 5, things get fuzzy? So, you agree the experts will be pretty good at picking the first three picks? ;) Anyways, I'm not sure if Kiper does mock drafts or whether he just ranks players. In other words, I think he comments more on what he thinks teams should do rather than what teams will do. Kiper is more of a talent evaluator than a guy with great team connections getting inside scoop like Chris Mortensen..
I'm not that confident of that.The 4 or 5 picks thing was just a response to the other poster.

 

wannabee

Footballguy
I did not want to start another thread. But , many might find this interesting:

Texans Have Conundrum With Bush, Young in Draft

Heisman Trophy Winner, Local Hero Are Both Legitimate No. 1 Picks

By DAVE GOLDBERG, AP Sports

Sports Commentary

When Houston lost to San Francisco in its final regular-season game to "earn" the No. 1 draft pick, the assumption was the Texans would take Reggie Bush, the once-in-a-generation running back.

It's not that simple now that Vince Young has declared for the draft following a dazzling performance that brought Texas the national championship. Young is from Houston, Houston is in Texas and a local hero could do wonders for the fans of a team that went 2-14.

Throw in Matt Leinart, Bush's teammate at Southern California, and the Texans are in a bit of a quandary: a do-it all running back and two quarterbacks, one a favorite son.

Don't ask Charley Casserly, Houston's general manager, to commit this early.

Among other things, he still has to find a coach, with the front-runner Gary Kubiak, the Denver offensive coordinator. Kubiak was a quarterback - John Elway's longtime backup for the Broncos - so that might become a factor.

Casserly said little after Bush declared Thursday he was leaving USC.

"All we can say is what has happened here with Reggie Bush and Vince Young declaring, with the addition of Matt Leinart among other players, is that you have a real strong top of the draft," Casserly said. "It means we're going to get a real good player if we keep the pick, and if we trade the pick, we've got certainly a very valuable commodity to trade."

To be fair, no GM in his position would say anything else at this point.

A few things to remember:

1. There are rarely sure things. Remember that in 1998, there were teams that thought Ryan Leaf was a better prospect than Peyton Manning. And that in 1989, Dallas' choice of Troy Aikman at No. 1 was criticized by many who thought the Cowboys should have chosen Tony Mandarich.

2. Houston has a young quarterback in David Carr, who will be 27 in July. He has been sacked more than 200 times in four seasons and has regressed. But indications are that the Texans will pay the $8 million bonus due in March - a recognition that the problems were on the offensive line and a hint that they will select Bush or trade down for additional picks.

3. For all his college heroics, Young is still a question to NFL scouts because of an odd throwing motion and some uncertain decision-making during his college career. Still, he appears to be a bigger Michael Vick, who can learn the NFL passing game and whose running ability will create numerous problems for opponents.

After Houston come New Orleans, Tennessee and the New York Jets.

Consider their needs (a lot) and throw in a few other prospects, including LenDale White, the power half of the running back tandem at USC - he declared for the draft the day before Bush did and probably will go in the top 10.

The Saints and Titans need quarterbacks - Tennessee's Steve McNair wants to come back but has to renegotiate what otherwise would be a salary cap-breaking deal. Sitting and learning from an accomplished veteran would be the perfect situation for a Leinart or Young.

The Jets also would like a QB because Chad Pennington has undergone surgery on his throwing shoulder twice in the last year. But they may want experience rather than youth, and they need both offensive linemen and a running back to succeed Curtis Martin.

So ...

Quick mock draft: Bush to Houston; Leinart to New Orleans; Young to Tennessee; and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, offensive tackle from Virginia to the Jets (unless Houston trades down to get him). Ferguson is from Freeport, N.Y., a short drive from the Jets' training site.

Too easy, so it won't happen that way, especially if Houston owner Bob McNair succumbs to the clamor of the fans.

Almost every team in the NFL thinks Bush will be the best player available. He is Gale Sayers, Barry Sanders, LaDainian Tomlinson - an all purpose back with speed, elusiveness, even deceptive power.

Next comes Leinart, the classic NFL drop-back quarterback. He has some mobility, a lot of high-level, pressure experience and is viewed by scouts as a long-term starter although perhaps not a superstar.

Some history, recent and ancient:

In 2001, San Diego had the first choice and traded down, giving Atlanta the rights to Vick and choosing Tomlinson fifth overall. The Chargers also got Drew Brees with the first pick of the second round. So who did better? Maybe New England, which took Richard Seymour one pick after the Chargers got Tomlinson.

In 1993, Drew Bledsoe went No. 1 to the Patriots. Three other draftees turned out to be long-term stars: Willie Roaf, No. 8 to New Orleans; Jerome Bettis, No. 10 to the Rams; and Michael Strahan, No. 40 to the Giants.

Typical of this era, Strahan is the only one of that group still with the team that drafted him. If the defensive-minded Bill Parcells, then the Pats' coach, knew how he would turn out would he have taken him No. 1 or would he have stuck with Bledsoe, who was the QB when New England got to the Super Bowl four seasons later?

One pick after Bledsoe, the Seahawks took Rick Mirer, another quarterback who failed. So did Leaf and three QBs taken in the top 12 in 1999 - Tim Couch (No. 1), Akili Smith (No. 3) and Cade McNown (No. 12).

In 2000, New England took Tom Brady with the 199th pick.

That's the ultimate demonstration of why there are no sure things.

01/13/06 17:00 EST

 

B Maverick

Footballguy
HUDDLE REPORT

Strengths

Vince is a hell of an athlete. He is big, strong, has good speed and in the open field, is very hard to bring down. He shows good leadership skills and makes the players around him better. Vince has improved his ability to throw the ball every year I've seen him play. This shows me that he wants to be the best at his position and that he works hard to improve.

Needs to Improve

Let’s be honest...Vince is nowhere near being an NFL QB. His throwing motion is suspect (to say the least.) He does not stay in the pocket. He does not read defenses at all. He is only effectve in the shotgun formation and when he's running the ball.

Bottom Line

If Vince wants to be a QB in the NFL, it will take a whole lot of hard work and at least four years. If he thinks that all he has to do when he's in trouble in the NFL is take off and run, he needs to talk to Michael Vick and JP Losman. Both players have already broken a leg and both lost a year in their development. Vick had a lot of injuries this year and is just now starting to learn that staying in the pocket is the only way to stay on the field and impact. Vince doesn’t have the arm strength and velocity on his ball that those two players have. Both Vick and Losman struggle with their mechanics to this day and in doing so, miss a lot of open receivers. I’m not sure Vince will make it as a QB in the NFL. If he had stayed in for his senior year and I saw marked improvement in his throwing motion and velocity on his ball, then I could have given you a better profile. Now that he's decided to leave Texas after this year because of his projection as a top ten pick, I have to say that the road for him to travel will be way too long and if you are the coach of the team that drafts him, you'll probably be fired before he becomes your QB. I would rate Vince as a good, long-range developmental QB that I would pick maybe in the third or fourth round; but to be honest, there is no way I pick this kid to be my future franchise QB. The recent Rose Bowl did nothing to change my mind about Vince -- in fact, if anything, it made me more convinced of my opinion of him as a potential QB in the NFL. Now if you want to talk about him playing another position, I would be happy to see what he could do as a WR. I bet he would be outstanding.

*************

I love this write up on Young. So against everything that the hype machine is saying.

Bush and Leinart go 1 and 2. Houston should take bush and go with carr unless they get a decent offer to move down and get to fix the oline. Wells would be a good thunder to Bush's lightning while Dom Davis is turning into Fragile Freddie, excellent on the field but often not there come gameday.... They need to move on from him.

NO should go with the most ready QB and that is Leinart. With Horn, Stallworth, Deuce, et all they have the makings of a good team. A QB is what they need. Bouman can be the kitna for a few games or a season to Leinart's Palmer and they are off and running. Even if Bouman is Warner to ML's Eli. Point is they need a real QB and Brooks nor YOUNG is one.

Having McNair will make Young attractive to Tenn. McNair can run and has a mentor relationship already with VY. I dont see him as a good fit anywhere else (esp Dallas under Parcells).

Most of the fans want the local boy and despite the hype and skip bayless on ESPN, Houston needs to go Bush or trade down. Young is not the #1 pick. I dont think he would be number 3 if Tenn wasnt there....

 

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