Are there more HOF QBs in the game now than ever? (1 Viewer)

[matttyl]

All this talk I hear/read about this QB should be HOF, this one shouldn't, got me thinking...

It might surprise you to hear that there are currently only 26 "modern era" QBs enshrined in the pro football HOF.  That goes back to I think 1950 (some "pre modern era" guys played into the 1950s, while others listed as "modern era" started playing before 1950).  I would have guess something closer to twice that.  Anyway, I worked up a quick spreadsheet to find out what year had the most of those 26 playing. 

The early 1970s had a period of 5 straight years with either 10 or 11 future HOF QBs playing every Sunday!  Pretty cool considering there were only 26 NFL teams at the time.  Guys like George Blanda, Unitas, Starr, Jurgensen, Dawson, Tarkenton and Namath were still playing, and newer guys like Griese, Staubach, Stabler, Bradshaw and Fouts where entering the league. 

A decade later, in the early 1980s there was a low spot of only 4 future HOFers in the game - Stabler, Bradshaw, Fouts and Montana (Marino and Elway both came into league in '83, Moon in '84, Young in '85 and Kelly in '86). 

Most other years had between 5-8. 

If you move forward to say 2001, you've got an interesting situation.  Aikman, Young, Moon and Elway were all out of the league by then - and currently only two QBs ended up in the HOF that played that year - Warner and Favre.  Obviously Manning will be there, too - and it was the first year playing for both Brady and Brees.  Might have only been 5 then (was Culpeper, McNabb, Gannon or Green a HOFer?). 

Anyway - move forward to today.  I think we can agree Brady and Brees for sure no matter what.  Rodgers and Ben, more than likely as well.  Eli and Rivers are both questions right now.  Then you get to the younger guys who haven't yet written all of their stories.  Guys like Luck, Mahomes, Goff, Watson, Wilson - even Newton and Mayfield.  Might not be the early 1970s, but it sure beats the early 1980s. 

 

[Elevencents]

This may be too much of a simplistic look at it - but the game has changed. Every QB has a chance to shine now that all they do is chuck the ball. It wasn’t long ago that a 3000 yard season was looked at as good season. What’s that get you now?

 

[Deamon]

This may be too much of a simplistic look at it - but the game has changed. Every QB has a chance to shine now that all they do is chuck the ball. It wasn’t long ago that a 3000 yard season was looked at as good season. What’s that get you now?

Definitely this.  Does the HOF change its thoughts on QBs and adjust to this?  If some random below average qb in 20 years ends up with more career yards than favre, does he get in?  Will be interesting down the line to be like "This guy has more yards than Peyton Manning, but he shouldn't be in the HOF" (Obviously an extreme example)

 

[Deamon]

Eli and Rivers are both questions right now.  Then you get to the younger guys who haven't yet written all of their stories.  Guys like Luck, Mahomes, Goff, Watson, Wilson - even Newton and Mayfield.  Might not be the early 1970s, but it sure beats the early 1980s. 

I don't understand at all how Rivers is a question.  He's #8 all time in passing yards and #6 all time passing tds.  Eli is around the same but I think Rivers' numbers by career end will be much higher than Eli's.  Eli does have the SB's though.  I think Rivers is a lock and Eli is 50/50

 

[Rove!]

Yes

guys like Brady, Brees and Rivers might have been retired in days of yore, but careers are extended now...the inevitable effect to have more HoF QBs active 

 

[matttyl]

I don't understand at all how Rivers is a question.  He's #8 all time in passing yards and #6 all time passing tds.  Eli is around the same but I think Rivers' numbers by career end will be much higher than Eli's.  Eli does have the SB's though.  I think Rivers is a lock and Eli is 50/50

That's why I brought this up.  How many do we have playing today?  Most years we've had between 5-8 playing in the league at any given time.  Lets say both Eli and Rivers hang it up this year or next year (Ben, too).  We've got to wait 5 years before they're even eligible.  Lets say in that 5 years guys like Luck, Mahomes, Goff and Watson (all 4 playoff QBs, by the way) all go all out, 5k passing yard season averages, 35-50 TDs, lots of rushing yards.  Will that hurt Rivers and Eli's chances, neither of which have had a single 5k passing season?  Those guys aren't getting in before Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Ben.  And if those younger guys all look to have better career trajectories going forward than what Eli and Rivers had, do we really have 10 HOF QBs playing the game right now?

 

[matttyl]

Yes

guys like Brady, Brees and Rivers might have been retired in days of yore, but careers are extended now...the inevitable effect to have more HoF QBs active 

Well, maybe the inverse.  Say Bledsoe played now, and his career was extended - maybe to the point of Brady never making it on the field (at least as a Pat).  More guys playing longer means fewer guys coming up to replace them.  Only 32 guys play each week (except for byes).  When guys like Favre, Brady, Manning and Brees all play for ~20 years, it just means fewer other guys are playing and able to earn a HOF jacket.  Brady could have walked 5 years ago and still been HOF, and some other QB would be starting his career there.

 

[Todem]

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

Rivers

Are sure fire HOF in my book. 

Mahomes has the look of a legend in the making. That is all I can say about the current crop of QB's today. I really like Deshaun Watson too. But he needs to stay healthy. Mahomes and Watson for me are on my radar for HOF type of careers thus far.

 

[Elevencents]

I don’t think what the young QBs do will have any effect on Eli’s/Rivers chances. JMO. 

 

[matttyl]

No Big Ben in your first list, or Luck in your second?

 

[Elevencents]

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

Rivers

Are sure fire HOF in my book. 

Mahomes has the look of a legend in the making. That is all I can say about the current crop of QB's today. I really like Deshaun Watson too. But he needs to stay healthy. Mahomes and Watson for me are on my radar for HOF type of careers thus far.

I get what you’re saying but HOF shouldn’t even be whispered after one year of playing. 

 

[Todem]

I get what you’re saying but HOF shouldn’t even be whispered after one year of playing. 

Don't get me wrong......I agree. I am purely forecasting those two right now.

 

[Todem]

No Big Ben in your first list, or Luck in your second?

Crap..my bad.

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

Rivers

Big Ben

Luck is still TBD but what a comeback year and I really like him too.

 

[matttyl]

And a bit of a follow up question if you've made it this far through my ramblings - aside from Peyton Manning, are there any already retired but not yet voted in HOF QBs?

 

[Marauder]

Definitely this.  Does the HOF change its thoughts on QBs and adjust to this?  If some random below average qb in 20 years ends up with more career yards than favre, does he get in?  Will be interesting down the line to be like "This guy has more yards than Peyton Manning, but he shouldn't be in the HOF" (Obviously an extreme example)

I think they have to.   You can already see it happening in the "Does x get into the HOF" discussions.   One example is Philip Rivers vs. Dan Fouts.   Rivers beats Fouts in every conceivable category (both volume and efficiency).  I don't remember there being any question about Fouts getting in but a lot of people seem to be questioning Rivers qualifications.

 

[Insein]

The young guys we won't know till about 5 years from now. If you looked at Wentz pre week 13 last year, you'd say he's a lock for the Hall if he keeps playing like this. Injuries and situations change. Mahomes is the MVP this year but next year might have a come back to Earth season. Same for all the young guns. 

 

[matttyl]

I think they have to.   You can already see it happening in the "Does x get into the HOF" discussions.   One example is Philip Rivers vs. Dan Fouts.   Rivers beats Fouts in every conceivable category (both volume and efficiency).  I don't remember there being any question about Fouts getting in but a lot of people seem to be questioning Rivers qualifications.

Of course.  Matt Ryan is currently 12th all time in passing yards (4k more yards than Aaron Rodgers, let that sink in).  Anyone making any claim that he'll end up in Canton?  If Brees wins it all and hangs it up this year, and Ryan plays another 6 years (he has 5 left on current deal), and averages 4,620 yards a year - he'll walk away as the all time passing leader. 

 

[Marauder]

Different era so not exactly apples to oranges.

That's my point.   I was responding to Daemon's question about whether the HOF voters will adjust for the different era's.

 

[Snorkelson]

I think you have to take more than raw numbers into account. Rivers has great numbers, but is on the fence for me because he has no rings, where guys like manning and Ben have multiple. I don’t have time to look but I’d imagine the top all time passing ydg leaders are all fairly recent players. That kind of cheapens rivers accolades imo- I mean if Matt stafford plays another 7 years and tacks on 25k yds he would be #4 on the current list. 9 guys in the top 20 are active players. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I don't understand at all how Rivers is a question.  He's #8 all time in passing yards and #6 all time passing tds.  Eli is around the same but I think Rivers' numbers by career end will be much higher than Eli's.  Eli does have the SB's though.  I think Rivers is a lock and Eli is 50/50

Rivers is a better qb that did not play on a better team. And he is still better than Eli.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

I don't understand at all how Rivers is a question.  He's #8 all time in passing yards and #6 all time passing tds.  Eli is around the same but I think Rivers' numbers by career end will be much higher than Eli's.  Eli does have the SB's though.  I think Rivers is a lock and Eli is 50/50

Eli is a lock. Rivers is 50/50 until he wins a SB.

 

[Max Power]

I think there will be more HOF QBs in the next 20-30 years, but they will come at the cost of less RBs in the HOF. 

 

[Deamon]

Eli is a lock. Rivers is 50/50 until he wins a SB.

Do you think the voters look at SB's as strongly as you do though?  I mean, Rivers is going to have more yards, tds, etc than Marino.  So why wouldn't he get in?

 

[SR388]

I wouldn’t put Rivers or Eli in at this juncture: 

 

[Insein]

Do you think the voters look at SB's as strongly as you do though?  I mean, Rivers is going to have more yards, tds, etc than Marino.  So why wouldn't he get in?

They look at Eli being instrumental in those two super bowl runs and he'll have a careers worth if stats to go with it. Rivers just has the stats. 

 

[Deamon]

They look at Eli being instrumental in those two super bowl runs and he'll have a careers worth if stats to go with it. Rivers just has the stats. 

Ya.  But what would Marino have that Rivers doesn't?

And don't say talent haha.  I know Marino is a way better qb.  But in terms of things that get you in the HOF, I'm not sure anyone in 3 years will be able to say that Marino deserved it and Rivers didn't looking at numbers and Super bowls.

 

[Insein]

Ya.  But what would Marino have that Rivers doesn't?

And don't say talent haha.  I know Marino is a way better qb.  But in terms of things that get you in the HOF, I'm not sure anyone in 3 years will be able to say that Marino deserved it and Rivers didn't looking at numbers and Super bowls.

The first guy to get to 60k yards and 400 TDs in an era where passing was not nearly as prolific. Still sits at 5th all time in yards and TDs nearly 20 years after his retirement. If Marino played with today's rules, he'd have passed for 80-90k yards and who knows how many TDs.

 

[Deamon]

The first guy to get to 60k yards and 400 TDs in an era where passing was not nearly as prolific. Still sits at 5th all time in yards and TDs nearly 20 years after his retirement. If Marino played with today's rules, he'd have passed for 80-90k yards and who knows how many TDs.

Ya, he's definitely better.  No disagreement there.  Just think that when Rivers retires he's likely top 5 in career passing TDs and Career passing Yards and I highly doubt they would leave someone like that out of the HOF.

 

[Todem]

It's gotten so pass happy that it really has taken away from the game. Makes what Marino did in the 80s even more special really.

He would throw for 6000 yards and Clayton and Duper would both have at least 3000 of those yards with todays rules. I am being serious.

 

[Todem]

Rivers is a better qb that did not play on a better team. And he is still better than Eli.

Yeah this whole Super Bowl ring thing is bunk. You don’t choose your coach and teammates. 

It is about production in the end. This is the ultimate team game. 

 

[Rove!]

Well, maybe the inverse.  Say Bledsoe played now, and his career was extended - maybe to the point of Brady never making it on the field (at least as a Pat).  More guys playing longer means fewer guys coming up to replace them.  Only 32 guys play each week (except for byes).  When guys like Favre, Brady, Manning and Brees all play for ~20 years, it just means fewer other guys are playing and able to earn a HOF jacket.  Brady could have walked 5 years ago and still been HOF, and some other QB would be starting his career there.

That is not a realistic scenario in today’s NFL.  Is there a single backup QB in the NFL capable of being a great?  Foles is considered the best backup, and he is nit a HOF QB.  We had a situation with Favre and Rodgers, but GB ended up pushing Favre out of the way.  The coaches see these guys in practice, so they know what they have and they can manage for it.  

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Definitely this.  Does the HOF change its thoughts on QBs and adjust to this?  If some random below average qb in 20 years ends up with more career yards than favre, does he get in?  Will be interesting down the line to be like "This guy has more yards than Peyton Manning, but he shouldn't be in the HOF" (Obviously an extreme example)

No different than people saying Rivers or Eli belong in the Hall.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

They look at Eli being instrumental in those two super bowl runs and he'll have a careers worth if stats to go with it. Rivers just has the stats. 

Eli's stats are mediocre

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Yeah this whole Super Bowl ring thing is bunk. You don’t choose your coach and teammates. 

It is about production in the end. This is the ultimate team game. 

It's freaking scary how few people seem to realize this. 

 

[Insein]

Eli's stats are mediocre

He has the same stats as Rivers basically. More yards than Rivers and slightly less TDs. Then I guess Rivers is mediocre. 

 

[Insein]

Eli, Ben and Phil all have about the same stats. 6th, 7th and 8th all time in TDs and yards (different order). Ben has 2 rings and been to 3. Eli is 2 for 2. Rivers never been. 

All 3 of them will probably get in. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Eli is getting in, I don’t like the Giants (if they get Foles, I won’t be able to hate anymore), but he is absolutely getting in. Between the rings and the name, no shot he isn’t in.

Rivers is a coin flip, prob 60/40 he gets in. If he gets in, I won’t be surprised, if he doesn’t, I don’t think it will be a snub.

Brady might get in (joking).

Locks:

Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ben, Eli

Odds are in Rivers favor, but not a lock. If he leads them to the SB this season, I think he goes from 60%ish to 80/90%ish and he becomes a lock if they win it all.

Younger guys:

- Luck. Now that he appears healed, hopefully he can resume his career, he has greatness written all over himself. As long as he stays healthy, I think he’ll have the career to solidify himself as a 1st ballot guy.

- Cam is a guy I root for, but his shoulder is a concern. He needs to heal and put in a very good 6-7 more years for consideration.

- Wilson. He does what he has been doing for another 7 years or so and he’ll be in.

- Foles!!! If he leads them to another SB this year, takes over as the Eagles QB, and leads them to multiple playoff runs in the next 6-7 years, he’ll be in. This one is hope, but highly unlikely.

- Matt Ryan. Laughable now, but he’ll hang them up with stats comparable to Rivers, so if you consider Rivers, I think he’ll end up in the consideration set too. If he plays another 7 years, leads the Falcons to 4 more playoff trips and another SB visit, he’ll get in.

Flacco

Guys who have been in the league 3 years or less like Goff, Mahomes, etc aren’t even worth thinking about now.

 

[BassNBrew]

Well, maybe the inverse.  Say Bledsoe played now, and his career was extended - maybe to the point of Brady never making it on the field (at least as a Pat).  More guys playing longer means fewer guys coming up to replace them.  Only 33 guys play each week (Fitz/Winston).  When guys like Favre, Brady, Manning and Brees all play for ~20 years, it just means fewer other guys are playing and able to earn a HOF jacket.  Brady could have walked 5 years ago and still been HOF, and some other QB would be starting his career there.

 

[Mark Football]

The first guy to get to 60k yards and 400 TDs in an era where passing was not nearly as prolific. Still sits at 5th all time in yards and TDs nearly 20 years after his retirement. If Marino played with today's rules, he'd have passed for 80-90k yards and who knows how many TDs.

Not to mention he mostly had garbage wide receivers like O.J. McDuffie and.....? after Clayton and Duper because the Dolphins were so poorly run. Also no world beater RBs to help out either.  It is such a sad thought to me that all of Marinos talent was for the most part wasted in Miami. Would love to see what he could do today with some weapons!

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Crap..my bad.

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

Rivers

Big Ben

Luck is still TBD but what a comeback year and I really like him too.

I’m always surprised how often Matt Ryan gets overlooked when Rivers isn’t...their careers are practically carbon copies of one another except Ryan has an MVP...

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Rivers is a coin flip, prob 60/40 he gets in. If he gets in, I won’t be surprised, if he doesn’t, I don’t think it will be a snub.

Odds are in Rivers favor, but not a lock. If he leads them to the SB this season, I think he goes from 60%ish to 80/90%ish and he becomes a lock if they win it all.

- Matt Ryan. Laughable now, but he’ll hang them up with stats comparable to Rivers, so if you consider Rivers, I think he’ll end up in the consideration set too. If he plays another 7 years, leads the Falcons to 4 more playoff trips and another SB visit, he’ll get in.

This is a good example of a fairly significant perception delta between Rivers/Ryan.  It almost feels insinuated that Ryan will wind up around Rivers final career stats when all is said and done.  But as it stands now, Ryan with the 4 season gap between him and PR has this  46720/295/133 line while Rivers has 54656/374/178.

 

[ZWK]

If we give a QB 1 point for each Pro Bowl, 2 points for each AP 1st Team All-Pro, 2 points for each Super Bowl win, and 1 point for each Super Bowl loss, then the active quarterbacks with 2+ points are:

33    Tom Brady
16    Drew Brees
13    Aaron Rodgers
11    Ben Roethlisberger
8    Philip Rivers
8    Eli Manning
7    Matt Ryan
7    Russell Wilson
6    Cam Newton
3    Derek Carr
3    Andy Dalton
3    Andrew Luck
3    Alex Smith
3    Nick Foles
3    Patrick Mahomes
2    Jared Goff
2    Matt Schaub
2    Joe Flacco

This seems like a pretty good match to their current HOF prospects - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger are in, Rivers & Manning are borderline, other guys need to do some more in order to make it. Plenty of young guys still have a lot of football in front of them and could rise up this list, including ones like Wentz & Watson who don't make this list.

An obvious flaw is that Pro Bowl alternates are counted among the Pro Bowlers (since that's how PFR does it), so (for example) Derek Carr gets as much credit as Carson Wentz for their "Pro Bowl" 2017 seasons. If anyone has a source that gives Pro Bowl totals which only count the 6 originally selected QBs I'll switch to that.

 

[fantasycurse42]

This is a good example of a fairly significant perception delta between Rivers/Ryan.  It almost feels insinuated that Ryan will wind up around Rivers final career stats when all is said and done.  But as it stands now, Ryan with the 4 season gap between him and PR has this  46720/295/133 line while Rivers has 54656/374/178.

I didn’t even realize how good Matt Ryan played this year until I looked at his numbers. He wasn’t on any of my teams and the Falcons were trash, but wow, Matty Ice. If he throws for 4500, 30, 10 for an extra 4 years than Rivers (and looking at his numbers over the last few seasons, this seems very plausible), he’ll have an extra 10k yards passing, 40 TDs, and less INTs. 

If you think Rivers should get in, then you also have to think Matt Ryan is a lock.

 

[Insein]

I didn’t even realize how good Matt Ryan played this year until I looked at his numbers. He wasn’t on any of my teams and the Falcons were trash, but wow, Matty Ice. If he throws for 4500, 30, 10 for an extra 4 years than Rivers (and looking at his numbers over the last few seasons, this seems very plausible), he’ll have an extra 10k yards passing, 40 TDs, and less INTs. 

If you think Rivers should get in, then you also have to think Matt Ryan is a lock.

He has a pretty good resume. Super Bowl loss. MVP. Good WL ratio. The stats will pan out. He probably gets there when he's done. I think he has another 6-7 years left though.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I didn’t even realize how good Matt Ryan played this year until I looked at his numbers. He wasn’t on any of my teams and the Falcons were trash, but wow, Matty Ice. If he throws for 4500, 30, 10 for an extra 4 years than Rivers (and looking at his numbers over the last few seasons, this seems very plausible), he’ll have an extra 10k yards passing, 40 TDs, and less INTs. 

If you think Rivers should get in, then you also have to think Matt Ryan is a lock.

Fact is...this sentiment (the ‘I didn’t realize’) probably applies to his career as a whole for most...

 

[Alex P Keaton]

He has the same stats as Rivers basically. More yards than Rivers and slightly less TDs. Then I guess Rivers is mediocre. 

Why do you keep saying they have the same stats, as if passing yards and TDs are the only stats that matter?

Eli career stats:

QBR:  84.1 (never > 95 for a season)

Completion percentage:  60.1%

TD rate:  4.5%

INT rate:  3.0%

AY/A:  6.6

ANY/A:  5.9

Rivers career stats:

QBR:  95.6 (5 seasons > 100)

Completion percentage:  64.5%

TD rate:  5.3%

INT rate:  2.5%

AY/A:  7.7

ANY/A:  7.0

So.......were these guys equally good QBs?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Thank you, Alex. Rivers is quite a bit better than Eli and more deserving of HOF although they are probably both locks in reality at this point. 

 

[Anarchy99]

There have been a bunch of other threads discussing a lot of this. Eli across his career has been a below average QB (I posted an article that posted the metrics and analysis). The Giants have only been 2 games over .500 with him as QB. He could very easily end his career with a losing record. His candidacy is based on two great post season runs and his name. Just playing a long time while compiling a lot of numbers at a below average level shouldn’t make him a HOFer. That being said, he will most likely still make it in. 

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Do you think the voters look at SB's as strongly as you do though?  I mean, Rivers is going to have more yards, tds, etc than Marino.  So why wouldn't he get in?

I don't think Rivers' numbers are much better than Eli's. So, yeah, the SBs will be looked at strongly.

 

[Anarchy99]

Combined AP MVP Voting for QBs since 1998 . . . obviously not including this season.

Peyton - 227 total votes
Brady - 170
Rodgers - 81
Warner - 55.5
Newton - 48
McNair - 27
Ryan - 25
Gannon - 24
Favre - 22
Cunningham - 14
McNabb - 11
Brees - 9.5
Carr - 6
Rivers - 4
Pennington - 4
KStewart - 4
Palmer - 3
Romo - 2
Wentz - 2
Vick - 2
Prescott - 1