Are we ignoring past history in our 2006 predictions (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

This year more than any other I'm seeing the same teams picked to make the playoffs. Moreso than in other seasons, people are taking the teams that won last year and are plugging them into this year's playoffs. And I don't just mean the teams that made the playoffs from last year but the ones that didn't with strong records last year as well (MIA, KC, KC, DAL).

Looking at the past 9 years, there have been at least 3 teams that made the playoffs that had losing records the season before. (In 1996, there were only 2 teams with losing records in 1995 that made the playoffs.)

2005: CHI, CAR, NYG, WAS

2004: SD, ATL, PIT, NYJ

2003: BAL, KC, DAL, STL, SEA

2002: TEN, IND, ATL, NYG

2001: NE, CHI, SF

2000: DEN, NYG, PHI, NO

1999: IND, WAS, STL, DET

1998: BUF, DAL, ARI, ATL

1997: NYJ, NYG, TB, DET

In looking at expert picks, magazine picks, media picks, FBG board picks, etc. I have not practically NO ONE takng teams that had a losing record last year. The possible exception is BAL, as I have seen a few people picking them.

If you had to take 3 teams to make this year's post-season that were sub-.500 last year, who would they be?

CLE, BAL, TEN, HOU, BUF, NYJ, OAK, NO, DET, GB, PHI, STL, ARI, SF

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

BAL, PHI, STL

I am picking BAL and PHI to the playoffs even without the "pick 3 sub 500 teams" factor

 

[delusional]

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Stl or Arizona

 

[Rounders]

BAL

PHI

ARI

 

[BGP]

Good observation!

BAL, PHI, ARZ

 

[strong]

Phi

Oak

Hou

But I wouldn't put money on it, unless I had real long odds...

 

[TD Ryan]

Good observation!BAL, PHI, ARZ

 

[videoguy505]

PHI, STL, ARI

 

[Urinal Mint]

Bal

Phi

StL

 

[BGP]

BAL:

L Sun 9/10 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm

W Sun 9/17 Oakland 1:00 pm

L Sun 9/24 at Cleveland 4:05 pm

L Sun 10/1 San Diego 1:00 pm

L Mon 10/9 at Denver 8:30 pm

L Sun 10/15 Carolina 1:00 pm

bye

W Sun 10/29 at New Orleans 1:00 pm

W Sun 11/5 Cincinnati 1:00 pm

W Sun 11/12 at Tennessee 1:00 pm

W Sun 11/19 Atlanta 1:00 pm

W Sun 11/26 Pittsburgh 1:00 pm

W Thu 11/30 at Cincinnati 8:00 pm

W Sun 12/10 at Kansas City 1:00 pm

W Sun 12/17 Cleveland 1:00 pm

L Sun 12/24 at Pittsburgh 1:00 pm

W Sun 12/31 Buffalo 1:00 pm

10-6?

Eagles:

W Sun 9/10 at Houston 1:00 pm

W Sun 9/17 NY Giants 1:00 pm

W Sun 9/24 at San Francisco 4:15 pm

W Mon 10/2 Green Bay 8:30 pm

W Sun 10/8 Dallas 4:15 pm

W Sun 10/15 at New Orleans 1:00 pm

L Sun 10/22 at Tampa Bay 1:00 pm

L Sun 10/29 Jacksonville 1:00 pm

bye

L Sun 11/12 Washington 1:00 pm

W Sun 11/19 Tennessee 1:00 pm

L Sun 11/26 at Indianapolis 1:00 pm

L Mon 12/4 Carolina 8:30 pm

L Sun 12/10 at Washington 1:00 pm

W Sun 12/17 at NY Giants 1:00 pm

W Mon 12/25 at Dallas 5:00 pm

W Sun 12/31 Atlanta 1:00 pm

10-6?

W Sun 9/10 San Francisco 4:15 pm

L Sun 9/17 at Seattle 4:05 pm

W Sun 9/24 St. Louis 4:15 pm

L Sun 10/1 at Atlanta 1:00 pm

W Sun 10/8 Kansas City 4:05 pm

L Mon 10/16 Chicago 8:30 pm

W Sun 10/22 at Oakland 4:15 pm

W Sun 10/29 at Green Bay 1:00 pm

bye

L Sun 11/12 Dallas 4:15 pm

W Sun 11/19 Detroit 4:05 pm

W Sun 11/26 at Minnesota 1:00 pm

W Sun 12/3 at St. Louis 1:00 pm

L Sun 12/10 Seattle 4:05 pm

L Sun 12/17 Denver 4:05 pm

W Sun 12/24 at San Francisco 4:05 pm

L Sun 12/31 at San Diego 4:15 pm

9-7?

Disclaimer: not a prediction of how every game will play out. Just an exercise in seeing how these clubs reasonably make the playoffs.

 

[Tommy Collins]

Phi

Stl

Ari

 

[David Yudkin]

Not sure I see BAL staring 1-5 then going 9-1 or PHI starting 6-0 and then going 1-6.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

TEN, DET, PHI

 

[aposulli]

I also picked PHI and BAL and would not touch any of the other teams.

As far as I'm concerned, St Louis and Airzona don't have the D to be better than 9-7. And Seattle clinched that divison, curses be damned.

9-7 certainly won't beat 4 of these 5 of these teams: Philly, Dallas, New York, Tampa, Atlanta. (Assumnig Washington and Carolina will be divison winners... 10-6 or better)

Green Bay or Detroit I think actually have the best chance if Grossman/Griese perform like Kyle Orton did last year (they were lucky to win as many games as they did with a passing game that bad)

 

[PMENFAN]

Balt

Philly

And, though there is probably nobody that has been as hard on Matt MIllen as I, the hirings this off season at the HC and OC positions have to give them the inside track to take the North. I would have fired Millen long ago, and still would, because he's pathetic. But, the hiring of Marinelli to take over and instill discipline. And Martz to actually put his offensive genius to work where it is at it's best, at OC were the best two moves he's made. It's not that the Lions will be world beaters, but that they'll win by default. I see them winning the division around 9-7 or 10-6 at best. I just think it's a weak division, there to be taken by somebody that steps up. The Lions have a lot of talent. They've just had nobody there to organize it into a cohesive unit. They finally made a move to do that. For the record, they could win the SB, and I would still fire Millen. He needs too many attaboys to compensate for the aw craps he's accumulated in his time there. He's accumulated the talent by default, by being so bad for so long, and picking early year in and out. He's not a good GM. He landed Martz by accident. The good that happens is by accident.

 

[red]

years ago, someone posted a thread about predicting N+1 playoff teams, based upon the team's record in year N (it might have even been on the old cheatsheets.com site). IIRC, it was something like

3, 5, 2, 1, 1

where the 3 represent records of 12 wins or more in year N

5 = 10-11 wins

2 = 9 wins

1 = 8 wins

1 = less than 7 wins

or something like that....it was pretty interesting and somewhat accurate...but that was years ago and i don't know if it still holds true today.

 

[stevegamer]

This year more than any other I'm seeing the same teams picked to make the playoffs. Moreso than in other seasons, people are taking the teams that won last year and are plugging them into this year's playoffs. And I don't just mean the teams that made the playoffs from last year but the ones that didn't with strong records last year as well (MIA, KC, KC, DAL).If you had to take 3 teams to make this year's post-season that were sub-.500 last year, who would they be?CLE, BAL, TEN, HOU, BUF, NYJ, OAK, NO, DET, GB, PHI, STL, ARI, SF

I see most of these teams as having huge obstacles:CLE, TEN, HOU, BUF, NYJ, OAK, NO, SF:At least 2 teams ahead of them in-division, and they have to leapfrog non-playoff teams as well as solid playoff teams in division to get some more wins. BUF & CLE might have a remote shot from this group, but AFC wild-card is going to be a fight. Most of these teams will be under .500 again.DET, GB:The Bears got a lot better by replacing Orton. While the Bears' schedule is harder as a division winner, I'm not buying DET or GB unless things fall very well for them and bad for CHI.STL, ARI:One of these teams just has to pass Seattle, and we all know the curse is a lock, so one of them is in. Seriously, I don't take that seriously at all. Wild Card contenders, though unlikely because ofHI:Hmm. Injury-plagued team with major distraction that fell from grace last year, but has been to numerous conference title games. None of the losing teams listed above had injury problems like that. Serious contender for WC & Division. Oh, and the schedule is the easiest in their division.BAL:A team that's essentially been short a QB. They now have a QB, and now have a shot. I don't think they will win the division, but they are a WC contender.

 

[reg]

PHI

ARI

CLE

 

[redman]

If you had to take 3 teams to make this year's post-season that were sub-.500 last year, who would they be?CLE, BAL, TEN, HOU, BUF, NYJ, OAK, NO, DET, GB, PHI, STL, ARI, SF

BAL, PHI, STL

 

[Chaos Commish]

CLE, BAL, TEN, HOU, BUF, NYJ, OAK, NO, DET, GB, PHI, STL, ARI, SF

Saint LouisBaltimorePhilly

 

[SoFresh&SoClean]

I am honestly having a hard time doing this. If I had to pick 3 based on how their team looks this year, I'd go PHI, ARI, BALT. But I see weaknesses that can't be ignored that other teams that had a winning record last year aren't facing:

PHI- Their division is very tough, and I don't think they can win it. Their best shot I think lies in the Wildcard, and that's going to be tough too. Losing TO crushed them last year, and they haven't replaced him sufficiently. Sure they're been to the playoffs before without him, but how many times can they do it? I see 3 threats on that offense, and IRRC Westbrook is hurt/recovering? I am calling LJ a threat and that might be generous, but simply on his role in the offense he is one to be targeted. Their defense is pretty strong still, but that can only take you so far with the strenght of their division.

ARI- I think they have the best shot out of the 3 to make the playoffs. Their division is weak outside of SEA. The only problems lie within their defense. Their offense is strong at least in the skill positions, but their line lacks something to be desired and that will have effects on their previously non-existant running game. This team greatly reminds me of the Bengals of '03...veteran QB looking to make a comeback, struggling young defense, strong skill positions...only the olines are a tad different with the Bengals line being a little stronger at the time. The Bengals almost made the playoffs with a tough division, and ARI doesn't have the type of competition this year I feel as the Bengals did in 03, so I think they have the best shot of the 3.

BALT- Again, strong division/conference. McNair will help, but how much? Their line is still solid and I think JLew is a good pickup this year, but the passing game has to be improved, and I think it will. Their main problem lies in the Steelers and Bengals. I simply can't picture either of them having a worse record than BALT this year. The return of Reed and Lewis will help them, especially Reed. I'd say they have the second best chance of the three, and only if they can get a wildcard spot.

 

[AB in DC]

PHI - wouldn't be surprised to see them win the division

ARI - wild card is likely considering their soft schedule, improved morale w/new stadium

BAL - I'm predicting 8-9 wins, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either Cincy or Pittsburgh collapse, which would probably bump them up into the 10 win bracket.

DET and STL are possibilities - I'm not normally a believer in first-year coaches, and I'm not convinced that either have the talent on both sides of the ball to win more than 7 games, but their schedules are light enough that they could hit 9 wins with a few good breaks.