Are We Seeing a Changing of the Gurad? (1 Viewer)

[#1DetroitFan]

Of The three that I mentioned only Manning is playing respectable. Then again I did expect more out of Peyton than he is showing me. LJ and LT are not on my team but they are really hurting the teams that have them. I am lucky that Manning is not really hurting me but he is not living up to expectations. Then there is lots of chatter on this board regarding Lee Evans. This is one of the strangest fantasy seasons that I can remember. Is anyone else looking at this and seeing the samething as me or am I totally off base?

 

[MaddHatter]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

 

[Restricted]

Manning's looking the same as last year. LJ's suffering because of the team, no way you could expect LT to repeat last year and he's still on track for a very decent season.

 

[EdwardCat]

I'd have to agree that many of the studs from last year have gone belly-up this year. It is rather amazing to watch. LT and LJ have fallen significantly. LT is probably just getting old while LJ was overworked in past years. Evans just doesn't have anyone to throw to him. Brees/Colston...who knows. Stephen Jackson is at least showing a little life. Yes, it is only week 3. However, 3 weeks of poor to mediocre performance is a trend, not an aberration. 3 weeks is roughly 20% of the season. Top RBs have down games now and then. They do not have down games 3 weeks in a row.

 

[EdwardCat]

Manning's looking the same as last year. LJ's suffering because of the team, no way you could expect LT to repeat last year and he's still on track for a very decent season.

Actually, LT is on pace to rush for roughly 700 yards and score 8-10 TDs. I would NOT call that a decent season.

 

[Gbagzz]

Manning's looking the same as last year. LJ's suffering because of the team, no way you could expect LT to repeat last year and he's still on track for a very decent season.

Actually, LT is on pace to rush for roughly 700 yards and score 8-10 TDs. I would NOT call that a decent season.

In 3 games has had 3 total TD's. Wouldn't that put him on pace for 16 total Td's?

 

[EdwardCat]

Manning's looking the same as last year. LJ's suffering because of the team, no way you could expect LT to repeat last year and he's still on track for a very decent season.

Actually, LT is on pace to rush for roughly 700 yards and score 8-10 TDs. I would NOT call that a decent season.

In 3 games has had 3 total TD's. Wouldn't that put him on pace for 16 total Td's?

I guess if you count passing TDs. When considering a WR's or RB's TD total, people typically consider only rushing or receiving TDs. They certainly don't count when going for a league TD record for a RB or WR.

 

[yinzer]

The only thing I can see as far as a changing of the guard is that nearly all of the STUD WR's are outproducing nearly any RB. Smitty (eek this week), Ocho, Housh, Roy-W, Owens are killing it right now.

Yes, I realize that Wayne, Marvin, Holt, Evans, and after this week i guess Walker have slightly underperformed (aside from Evans who is MIA), but I think its safe to say they all come around and post expected numbers.

Really, all outside of Evans have proved to still represent solid to great value round 3 or earlier at this point, which is surprising but I could see it possibly continuing this year

 

[Todem]

That's fantasy football for you. It is such a crap shoot when push comes to shove. You can draft great...get the right pickups etc but when it comes down to it you also need some good luck in who your playing in what week etc etc etc.

I enjoy football first and foremost. I have had 2 straight years of insane success and to expect it every year is foolish.

I have been playing since 1990 and can remember going 5 straight years with no title of any kind ( I play in multiple leagues). So when it's going good I revel in it. When it is going bad I just laugh a little and enjoy football and wait till next year.

But I agree. This season has been strange in the fact that LT, LJ, Gore, are off to slow starts. WR's are killing it. But on the good side Brian Westbrook is proving once again how sick he is in PPR leagues. other than LT he may be the best. LT will be fine. Gore will be fine. And LJ will really hit his stride starting next week. Their schedules have been murder.

 

[FFdork]

LT had a pretty tough opening schedule. LJ had to get into game shape and has had tough matchups the last 2 weeks. It doesn't look like there's anything different about Peyton to me--I guess some people thought that the Colts defense might mean he'd have another record year.

LJ doesn't have a very good surrounding cast, but we knew that going into the season. San Diego's offense does not look as good, which is definitely something to monitor.

Anyway, much too early to draw any conclusions. If people are down on these three I would still be looking to buy, buy, buy.

 

[Sinrman]

Manning: Not entirely sure why. My guess is that during the offseason, team defenses studied the heck outta him and that offense, and tried to find ways to beat him, or at least contain him (especially division opponents, since they have to play Indy twice during the regular season).

LT: Part of it I think is Rivers making some dumb decisions. LT I think has finally had it and is starting to show his frustration with the young QB. A few times today LT was open and Rivers ignored him. You have one of the most prolific backs EVER and you ignore him on little dumps. What the heck? Also, I think much like with Manning, team defenses watched a LOT more film and are figuring ways to better defend him and that offense. Plus, and what I think is one of the key factors, is their starting opponents have been brutal. Chicago, NE, and GB?! Wow... Some are saying it's because he's "rusty" or whatever because he didn't play in any of the preseason games. I don't think so. He's done that since he was a rookie. He's used to that. He's smart, he knows the plays.

LJ: Some say it's because he now has a big contract and he doesn't have as much of a chip on his shoulder. Eh, possibly. I think it's more because their passing game is extremely WEAK. Their vaunted O-line has degraded over the years due to injuries/retirements, and now Tony G is having to stay back a lot more in helping defend. He can't help open things up and keep defenses honest like years before, which helped open up that running game. Also, another major factor is the starting defenses they've played against have been stout. Well, a much improved Houston defense, then Chicago, and now Minny? Wow... another brutal start for a top running back.

Not sure how all three will pan out by the end of the year... schedules the rest of the way are kinda up and down...

 

[jurb26]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

 

[Arnold. S]

everyone except for LJ will be fine. LJ will have a few pretty good weeks, other than that he'll be pretty much shut down. He'll barely get over 1000 yards and get no more than 6 TDs.

 

[The Jerk]

Manning is putting up typical yardage numbers; he's just not getting many TDs. However, except for 2004, he's pretty much averaged just barely under 2 TDs per game for most of his career. So given that he has 5 TDs in 3 games, that's not exactly a huge dropoff. If Harrison scores on the long pass in Week 1, or if Wayne scores on the long pass today, then he's got 6 TDs. If both go for TDs, then he has 7 in 3 games, and everyone's concerned because Addai only has 2 TDs in 3 games. Instead, Addai looks like a top 3 player as he is on pace for 21 TDs.

I think Sinrman has a good point about divisional defenses coming up with decent containment strategies. Let's see what happens with Denver and Tampa Bay the next two weeks.

LT was almost a lock to decrease his record-setting numbers, and San Diego is still adjusting to a new coaching staff -- in all areas. San Diego's defense is hurting his numbers as much as the offense, as there are few turnovers and no running to protect a lead late.

LJ is not a surprise, given the weakness of the offense, the deteriorating offensive line, and the brutal schedule.

Both RBs are too good to keep down too much longer. Bottom line is let's see where everyone is come midseason and the end of the season. If this stretch happens Weeks 8-10 very little is made of it. Now, because it is the start of the season, perhaps it is indicative of something more. But I'm not worried about Manning or LT at all (as long as you didn't expect LT to have 30 TDs again), and LJ will have his share of productive days in the second half of the season.

 

[EdwardCat]

Manning: Not entirely sure why. My guess is that during the offseason, team defenses studied the heck outta him and that offense, and tried to find ways to beat him, or at least contain him (especially division opponents, since they have to play Indy twice during the regular season).

LT: Part of it I think is Rivers making some dumb decisions. LT I think has finally had it and is starting to show his frustration with the young QB. A few times today LT was open and Rivers ignored him. You have one of the most prolific backs EVER and you ignore him on little dumps. What the heck? Also, I think much like with Manning, team defenses watched a LOT more film and are figuring ways to better defend him and that offense. Plus, and what I think is one of the key factors, is their starting opponents have been brutal. Chicago, NE, and GB?! Wow... Some are saying it's because he's "rusty" or whatever because he didn't play in any of the preseason games. I don't think so. He's done that since he was a rookie. He's used to that. He's smart, he knows the plays.

LJ: Some say it's because he now has a big contract and he doesn't have as much of a chip on his shoulder. Eh, possibly. I think it's more because their passing game is extremely WEAK. Their vaunted O-line has degraded over the years due to injuries/retirements, and now Tony G is having to stay back a lot more in helping defend. He can't help open things up and keep defenses honest like years before, which helped open up that running game. Also, another major factor is the starting defenses they've played against have been stout. Well, a much improved Houston defense, then Chicago, and now Minny? Wow... another brutal start for a top running back. :(

Not sure how all three will pan out by the end of the year... schedules the rest of the way are kinda up and down...

The funny thing about LT being ignored on a lot of passing plays is how much hype was surrounding him and getting him more involved in the passing game. His passing game involvement is no different from last year. To top it off, their o-line can't seem to open a hole for a mouse (it was supposed to be the best in the league this year). Defenses are constantly attacking Tomlinson behind the line. In the past he would have still produced well. He's just getting older and can't do the amazing things like he used to. And finally, he's being utilized terribly. There are many 3rd down situations where LT should be used and instead they go for a pass.LJ's problem is clearly the passing game. He has zero weapons around him. He can't do it all himself.

Manning isn't putting up super-stud QB numbers. However, they are consistent. By season's end, he'll be a top 3 to 5 QB easily. A consistent performer is better than feast or famine (Steve Smith).

Gore: See LJ (although he's put up some decent numbers).

At least Stephen Jackson showed this week he has a pulse.

 

[yinzer]

everyone except for LJ will be fine. LJ will have a few pretty good weeks, other than that he'll be pretty much shut down. He'll barely get over 1000 yards and get no more than 6 TDs.

While i dont think he gets 19 TDs again and 1750 yards or whatever, I think you're really undervaluing the D's he's faced (#1, #2, and the HOU run D looks like it could end up Top 10), not to mention he is just getting back into game shape.I think 1200 and 10 is certainly still possible, especially with his juicy 2nd half schedule

 

[The Jerk]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

Sure...except LT only had 3 TDs through FOUR games last season, then averaged 3 per GAME for the next ten weeks (including the two passing TDs).except Manning had only 5 passing TDs through three games last year (just like this year), with the difference being he also had a rushing TD. Yardage almost exactly the same.on LJ, no argument here.

 

[jurb26]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

Sure...except LT only had 3 TDs through FOUR games last season, then averaged 3 per GAME for the next ten weeks (including the two passing TDs).

I think that is a weak argument. LT also averaged 112 yds through those 4 games.This year, 67. So nearly half as many.

 

[GrossmanToHester]

David Gurad is already out?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Does anybody here seriously think that LaDainian Tomlinson is going to finish the season with a sub-3.0 ypc? Horrible as he's playing he's still getting points. It's only a matter of time before he turns it around. How can he not?

 

[jurb26]

Just want to add that in my 3 leagues the LT owners are:

0-3

0-3

1-2

How may teams that had him last year do you think started off with these kinds of records?

 

[The Jerk]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

Sure...except LT only had 3 TDs through FOUR games last season, then averaged 3 per GAME for the next ten weeks (including the two passing TDs).

I think that is a weak argument. LT also averaged 112 yds through those 4 games.This year, 67. So nearly half as many.

It's not weak at all. I'm simply making the point that a three-game window cannot be extrapolated to 16 weeks and suggest there is a changing of the guard. I don't think LT will run off 30 TDs in the next 10 games. However, I don't think anyone expected that to happen last year, either.I agree that the yardage is more of a concern, as is the major coaching staff change. But it's not very difficult to find similar situations. LJ had no TDs his first two games last year, but then had 15 TDs in his next nine games. Marvin Harrison had no TDs the first four weeks of 2006, then averaged a TD a game for the final 12 games.This is just 2006, and I'm not even trying that hard. Others I'm sure can add similar sluggish starts to the conversation.I'm not making references to these individual players for 2007. I'm just saying that extrapolation is not logical or historically accurate. So while the first three games may give concern, they don't guarantee similar performance the rest of the season.

 

[jurb26]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

Sure...except LT only had 3 TDs through FOUR games last season, then averaged 3 per GAME for the next ten weeks (including the two passing TDs).

I think that is a weak argument. LT also averaged 112 yds through those 4 games.This year, 67. So nearly half as many.

It's not weak at all. I'm simply making the point that a three-game window cannot be extrapolated to 16 weeks and suggest there is a changing of the guard. I don't think LT will run off 30 TDs in the next 10 games. However, I don't think anyone expected that to happen last year, either.I agree that the yardage is more of a concern, as is the major coaching staff change. But it's not very difficult to find similar situations. LJ had no TDs his first two games last year, but then had 15 TDs in his next nine games. Marvin Harrison had no TDs the first four weeks of 2006, then averaged a TD a game for the final 12 games.This is just 2006, and I'm not even trying that hard. Others I'm sure can add similar sluggish starts to the conversation.I'm not making references to these individual players for 2007. I'm just saying that extrapolation is not logical or historically accurate. So while the first three games may give concern, they don't guarantee similar performance the rest of the season.

The point is, if you're sitting at 0-3 right now your season may very well be on life support. It doesn't really matte a whole heck of a lot if they turn it around or not in many situations.

 

[EdwardCat]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

Sure...except LT only had 3 TDs through FOUR games last season, then averaged 3 per GAME for the next ten weeks (including the two passing TDs).except Manning had only 5 passing TDs through three games last year (just like this year), with the difference being he also had a rushing TD. Yardage almost exactly the same.on LJ, no argument here.

Through 3 games last season, LT had 376 total yards and 3 TDs. Through 3 games this season, he has 229 total yards and 2 TDs (plus one passing). As someone else stated on this board, TDs are incidental rather than a good measure of a person's ability. Yards per touch, however, is a good indication. His yardage performance has dropped by 40% through the first 3 games as compared to last year. As of now, he's on pace for 1200 total yards and 11 rushing/receiving TDs. These are embarrassingly low numbers for both LT and a RB considered to be the top fantasy option. These are numbers we expect from the likes of James Allen...not LT.

 

[The Jerk]

The point is, if you're sitting at 0-3 right now your season may very well be on life support. It doesn't really matte a whole heck of a lot if they turn it around or not in many situations.

Most first round picks have a few clunkers during the season. I'll agree that LT owners hope he's getting them out of the way early. LT put many teams in position to win last year single-handedly. However, come Week 16, many of those teams had to get by on the strength of the rest of their roster, as LT had 0 TDs, though the 133 yards were a solid contribution.At some point in the season, most championship teams must win a few games without their #1 pick having huge games, not to mention the bye week.I completely agree that being 0-3 is difficult to recover from, but the 0-3 is not all LT's fault. In fact, both Week 1 and Week 3 he produced close to average RB1 numbers. If teams lost both of those games, it's not just because of LT, but also because very few others are stepping into that void.No doubt he needs to pick up his numbers for his teams to contend for the title, however.

 

[Duke1948]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

i say his pants are on fire because he is definitely worrying ... no matter what he types.

 

[EdwardCat]

The point is, if you're sitting at 0-3 right now your season may very well be on life support. It doesn't really matte a whole heck of a lot if they turn it around or not in many situations.

I completely agree that being 0-3 is difficult to recover from, but the 0-3 is not all LT's fault. In fact, both Week 1 and Week 3 he produced close to average RB1 numbers. If teams lost both of those games, it's not just because of LT, but also because very few others are stepping into that void.

That's exactly it. People who produced well last year are coming up empty this year...and there are a LOT of them. Colston, Brees, McNabb (until today), LT, LJ, SJax, Darrell Jackson, Fitzgerald. There are several more. This is symptomatic of an odd year for fantasy football. Logically, most of these people should right themselves given time.I will most likely be 0-3 because of LT, Brees, Ahman Green and Harrison.

 

[Banger]

Just want to add that in my 3 leagues the LT owners are:0-30-31-2How may teams that had him last year do you think started off with these kinds of records?

I was 1-4 last year and lost in the championship game.

 

[FFdork]

Its just week 3. No worries from my end.

I think week 3 is about the time you need to stop saying "it's only week ___." 3 weeks is nearly 20% of the fantasy season. Some teams with these players could be 1-2 or 0-3 after these 3 weeks. In a 13-14 game fantasy season that could mean they are nearly out of the playoff hunt already.

Yes, it's nearly 20%, but as multiple people have pointed out, there are mitigating circumstances for LT and LJ. So far Peyton's season looks very similar to last year.If you are an owner of these players and you're 0-3 sure you might explore trade options, but the only way I move them is if you find a trade partner who still expects them to be elite players and gives you fair trade value.

 

[tikitime]

The point is, if you're sitting at 0-3 right now your season may very well be on life support. It doesn't really matte a whole heck of a lot if they turn it around or not in many situations.

I completely agree that being 0-3 is difficult to recover from, but the 0-3 is not all LT's fault. In fact, both Week 1 and Week 3 he produced close to average RB1 numbers. If teams lost both of those games, it's not just because of LT, but also because very few others are stepping into that void.

That's exactly it. People who produced well last year are coming up empty this year...and there are a LOT of them. Colston, Brees, McNabb (until today), LT, LJ, SJax, Darrell Jackson, Fitzgerald. There are several more. This is symptomatic of an odd year for fantasy football. Logically, most of these people should right themselves given time.I will most likely be 0-3 because of LT, Brees, Ahman Green and Harrison.

I think we should all trade LT. I seem to recall someone telling the forums that he was done as of week 5 last year, and that the Michael Turner era was about to begin. Hmm, who was that....?

 

[The Jerk]

The point is, if you're sitting at 0-3 right now your season may very well be on life support. It doesn't really matte a whole heck of a lot if they turn it around or not in many situations.

I completely agree that being 0-3 is difficult to recover from, but the 0-3 is not all LT's fault. In fact, both Week 1 and Week 3 he produced close to average RB1 numbers. If teams lost both of those games, it's not just because of LT, but also because very few others are stepping into that void.

That's exactly it. People who produced well last year are coming up empty this year...and there are a LOT of them. Colston, Brees, McNabb (until today), LT, LJ, SJax, Darrell Jackson, Fitzgerald. There are several more. This is symptomatic of an odd year for fantasy football. Logically, most of these people should right themselves given time.I will most likely be 0-3 because of LT, Brees, Ahman Green and Harrison.

Of course I'm speaking about people stepping into the void of teams with LT as their #1 pick, but excellent point in that there are a whole lot of top draft picks off their games to start the season, more than I can remember in the past decade at least. In the past, there have been more injuries to top players, but this is a different situation.Is it the essentially zero preseason that's causing some of this? Do teams study their first few opponents all offseason trying to get off to a quick start?

Don't discount how the NFL schedules the early season matchups both to pique early interest in the league and to help the divisional races stay competitive a little longer. Usually, good teams play good teams and bad teams play bad teams early in the year. Of course, this seems to be a little less important every year as the league is so rapidly changing year to year...