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are you going to draft Arian Foster? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ATSS_0100
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With this news of a back problem, I've dropped him down to RB9 on my list behind AP, Charles, Martin, McCoy, Spiller, Lynch, Rice & TRich. If we get more positive news I'll bump him back up, but until then I'm not willing to invest anything higher than that.
He won't end up on any of my teams, as someone will draft him top 5.
He won't end up on any of my teams, as someone will draft him top 5.
We Tigers
Footballguy
I don't have any redrafts till Labor Day weekend, so we'll see where he is then. Like Greg, this is the first that the reports have at all concerned me. I never like when a guy doesn't practice at all in camp, as they run the risk of coming out flat and out of shape the first few weeks.
Given how 2011 went for him, though--out/ineffective the first three games, then #1 in fantasy points per game over the balance of the season--I think you still have to keep him pretty high on your board.
Given how 2011 went for him, though--out/ineffective the first three games, then #1 in fantasy points per game over the balance of the season--I think you still have to keep him pretty high on your board.
Grady Wilson
Footballguy
I am trying to figure out how far he might fall. My earliest draft is Sunday, but I cannot imagine he falls to 1.12 in a 12 team league. I guess it is possible if he doesn't play this week and people start getting really worried. If he falls that far and we still have articles like yesterday (Kubiak sounded optimistic about week 1), I would take the risk and try to grab Tate. I have the #1 pick in another, so no chance and 1.9 in my third. The problem with that draft is that it is later next week, so I think we may have enough news to know that he is or isn't worth the risk and won't fall because of unknowns.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
What I dread about Foster is that Ben Tate will likely get a chunk of his yard this year. Yes you have to handcuff but unless you play both backs you are not a lock to get all of the Texans ground yards/TD's on a per game basis. I think they start dialing Foster back a bit because of last year.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
foster at 12 is silly. Gotta love offseason news to drive down the price of people you want.
I'm glad I didn't draft foster at all, even with a 2nd, a 3rd, and two 4th overall selections. in different leagues.
I think all the "doubters" and "haters" and "nervous nellies" who have been concerned with his workoad and decreasing performance that some others have been poking fun at might just get the last word.
Buuuut it's still the middle of pre season so maybe he'll spring right back up and go 4 straight years in the top 3. I'm not counting on it though.
I think all the "doubters" and "haters" and "nervous nellies" who have been concerned with his workoad and decreasing performance that some others have been poking fun at might just get the last word.
Buuuut it's still the middle of pre season so maybe he'll spring right back up and go 4 straight years in the top 3. I'm not counting on it though.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I'm steering clear of Foster unless he fell to me in the second. If you take Foster in the first, you pretty much have to reach for Tate or your season could be toast. Reaching for Tate before someone else scoops him up can mess up the rest of your draft. Let him be someone else's headache.
silentcoach
Footballguy
You may be one of those haters because you did not draft him at 2 OR 3 OR 4Leonidas said:
.Just sayin'.
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Captain Hook
Footballguy
he went for $53 this week in a redraft leagueiamkoza said:
Todem
Footballguy
I own Foster in a dynasty league.ghostguy123 said:
When you have factual reports from the team that he has had two epidural injections in his back.....that is not some nonsense. That is a serious issue with his back.
12 is not silly.
I am steering clear in a redraft. Back problems that require epidurals (I am assuming those are the injections they are talking about as they do take some time to work and calm the nerve inflammation down that is causing his discomfort which means it sounds like he has a bulging disc) that is very serious and can derail a season.
This is not Jamal Charles BS of two weeks ago...this is a real injury issue in the making.
Hope I am wrong.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Exactly, hasn't practiced since may, coach was previously downplaying injury concerns and now it appears more serious than before. The red flags dont come any bigger than this. Hes moving down my draft board every day. Hasn't been a single piece of positive information yet.
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hoopvillian
Footballguy
I got him at 1.08 in a 12 team draft and got Ben Tate jacked from me by someone who drafted him in the early 5th round. I'm a bit worried but I don't think I'll regret it by mid-season.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
He's just off my boards at this point, since he represents nothing but downside.
Where he's going to go -- some time in the first or very early second, at the most pessimistic -- he can't possibly generate enough fantasy points that he's going to wildly outproduce expectations and give you great value. Whenever he does go, I'm confident there will be other players on the board with similar, if marginally tinier, top-end upside. And nobody there has anything like the same likelihood of hitting their absolute basement.
To me, you're looking at a coinflip against disaster, with a win only generating a couple percentage points of return, at best.
No thx.
Would only consider if I had a turn come up and AP, TRich, Martin, Lynch, Rice, Charles, Spiller, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, Forte, Ridley, and CJ2K were off the board. Would have to think hard about him vs. MJD or Bush.
Where he's going to go -- some time in the first or very early second, at the most pessimistic -- he can't possibly generate enough fantasy points that he's going to wildly outproduce expectations and give you great value. Whenever he does go, I'm confident there will be other players on the board with similar, if marginally tinier, top-end upside. And nobody there has anything like the same likelihood of hitting their absolute basement.
To me, you're looking at a coinflip against disaster, with a win only generating a couple percentage points of return, at best.
No thx.
Would only consider if I had a turn come up and AP, TRich, Martin, Lynch, Rice, Charles, Spiller, Morris, McCoy, Jackson, Forte, Ridley, and CJ2K were off the board. Would have to think hard about him vs. MJD or Bush.
Short Corner
Footballguy
TheCommish
Footballguy
rizzler
Footballguy
If I can chime in - Im known by some on here as the DIE-HARD Foster supporter.. still am, but this injury has me worrying.
The symptoms being reported sound like ones that keep me awake at night in tears - sciatica
Now, I know the consensus is bulging disc or the like... but it hits too close to home, and neither injury makes me feel confident.
That being said, I had a late pick, and Foster went #3 - so I didn't have to choose. Against all odds, as in previous seasons where Tate would go super early, rnd 5-6, he was available for me at 7.11 yesterday.
I simply couldnt pass on him at that point, as the upside is way too high considering the possible severity of Foster's back
__________
I hate how Foster has always been dogged as a system back... undrafted BS.... but this is the one season I actually worry about him.
The symptoms being reported sound like ones that keep me awake at night in tears - sciatica
Now, I know the consensus is bulging disc or the like... but it hits too close to home, and neither injury makes me feel confident.
That being said, I had a late pick, and Foster went #3 - so I didn't have to choose. Against all odds, as in previous seasons where Tate would go super early, rnd 5-6, he was available for me at 7.11 yesterday.
I simply couldnt pass on him at that point, as the upside is way too high considering the possible severity of Foster's back
__________
I hate how Foster has always been dogged as a system back... undrafted BS.... but this is the one season I actually worry about him.
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
I'm still not convinced on the severity of the Foster "injury". LT had 14 total preseason carries in 8 years, from his rookie season to 2009. From 2005 to 2008 he didn't have any carries in preseason. In that time he suffered a torn groin, injured toe and a tear to MCL. I have no idea the severity of Fosters back, but if it's a pain management issue I'd rather have that compared to toes, groin and knee issues. Foster is every bit as comparable in value to his team as LT was to the Chargers. I don't doubt for a second that the Texans wouldn't want to keep him rested and healthy like the Charges did with LT. Guess we'll see. But I remember many years downgrading LT because I didn't get to see him play in preseason only to kick myself later when the guy I'd take over him didn't perform nearly as well. Even in 2009, coming off injuries and turning 30, LT only missed two games and had 12 TDs.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Activated today.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I'm not really all that worried about the severity of any current or supposed "injury," and it wouldn't be why I downgrade him.
It's because the specific nature of his dings and time-missing reasons, combined with his terrifying workload, suggest to me a man old and creaky before his time. Guys like that can have moments of brilliance, and they can also find themselves in defacto timeshares as they get an extra series off here and there, or sit for most of a second half once in a while. They can find themselves questionable on the injury report for reasons nobody is quite able to spell out confidently, which it will turn out later is that he looked a step slow in practice, or had undisclosed back pain "that he could have played through if it had been a playoff game," sort of thing.
And of course there's the increased chance, what with the violence of the game in general, that one or more of these minor dings or discomforts gets aggravated 50% easier than would happen to a younger, healthier back, and he misses a little more time than you'd project him to under normal circumstances.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him continue to create great per-carry numbers, and to continue to seem to those who watch the start of every game as though he's still a front line feature back, but to look back at the end of the year and see he finished with numbers over 14 or 15 games that put him at the head of a glorified committee, rather than as a true workhorse. And if that happens, I don't think he sniffs the top ten against this field.
And I think that may be his rosiest likely scenario.
It's because the specific nature of his dings and time-missing reasons, combined with his terrifying workload, suggest to me a man old and creaky before his time. Guys like that can have moments of brilliance, and they can also find themselves in defacto timeshares as they get an extra series off here and there, or sit for most of a second half once in a while. They can find themselves questionable on the injury report for reasons nobody is quite able to spell out confidently, which it will turn out later is that he looked a step slow in practice, or had undisclosed back pain "that he could have played through if it had been a playoff game," sort of thing.
And of course there's the increased chance, what with the violence of the game in general, that one or more of these minor dings or discomforts gets aggravated 50% easier than would happen to a younger, healthier back, and he misses a little more time than you'd project him to under normal circumstances.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him continue to create great per-carry numbers, and to continue to seem to those who watch the start of every game as though he's still a front line feature back, but to look back at the end of the year and see he finished with numbers over 14 or 15 games that put him at the head of a glorified committee, rather than as a true workhorse. And if that happens, I don't think he sniffs the top ten against this field.
And I think that may be his rosiest likely scenario.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Clifford
Footballguy
Classic vet move. An internal and largely immeasurable injury magically resolves itself during the last week of camp, immediately before the only preseason game that even comes close to mattering.
Pay attention folks, this happens every year. And yes I am suggesting the coach was in on it and was reporting info to the media that he knew to be overblown if not outright false.
Pay attention folks, this happens every year. And yes I am suggesting the coach was in on it and was reporting info to the media that he knew to be overblown if not outright false.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
I speculated early on that he was taking the veteran's way out (of training camp). If he gets even one carry in PS week 3, I feel like he is good to go.
Shutout
Footballguy
I'm with ya. I won't go to the point of saying this was planned conspiracy but I definitely see the scenario where Foster had a legitimate "soreness/discomfort" and the coaches said "We'll take it slow".
People really need to understand just how important Foster is to this team to be able to appreciate the idea that the Texans take overt precautions with him, especially after openly saying that they think the team wore down a bit last year at the end.
Frankly, the only thing I am surprised about at all at this point is that Rizzler is supporting the serious concern concept. Would it surprise me to see Foster appear to come around a little slower this year in the beginning? No. Especially with the early schedule they have but come week 7 or so, if this team is what it has been the last 3 years, there will be a lot of people feeling liked they wiffed on Foster, watching him run, catch, get the GL opportunities, etc.
Shutout
Footballguy
Sorry. Would have been way too easy to comp him to guys playing right now. As it has been said in a couple of threads already, he has blown them all away for the last three years in quality ff production.
Take of it what you will.
Shutout
Footballguy
Can't you say that about most any player? Maybe Peterson, Calvin and the top Qbs could be deemed as safe (assuming a healthy season for everyone) but you're likely not taking a Qb in the first so if you don't grab Peterson, what's the REAL ?? you have that are so glaringly worse with Foster than if you take Shady or Spiller or Rice, etc? in some ways, they are all one play away from having an equal or worse situaiton than the next guy. With FOster, at least, you know he is a top 3 Rb when he plays.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
My primary concern is his ypc. I know there is hope the line has improved. But how many RBs have made the top ten with a ypc less then 4.0. It definitely looks like he is headed that way and I don't know how many guys increased their ypc after seasons of heavy workloads like he has had. It just brings too many concerns to my mind to take him top 5.
Stoli
Footballguy
You could say it about any player that is currently dealing with an ailment that is causing them to miss playing time, yes. How many of the players you mentioned are facing this? None that I know of. My comment was in regards to his recent back and leg issues that have caused him to miss pre-season time, and that have the potential to turn into something even worse. This isn't what you spend a first round pick on.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Or there are people like me who happily took him 1st overall last year, but wouldn't touch him this year...
Shutout
Footballguy
Just my opinion, but I think you are making a mistake to think that way. Foster is still Foster but for some reaosn he gets an entirely different set of rules applied to him when he experiences the exact same experiences.
If its Ray Rice and ADP carrying the ball as many times as Foster has in the last three years, its "well, Its Peterson". Remind me again of exactly which of these backs actually DID finish top 3 the last three years? If its Rice, its "Man, all I worry about is if they will give him MORE carries. He's underutilized. But Foster carries about 10-20 times more than these two guys the last few years and he's "brutally overworked".
Back in the day when you had true bell cows, you would have a guy like LT have several top seasons in a row and never see a pre-season field and people said "great, he can't get injured. .He's freaking LT. We know what he is". But with Foster, it's like he must play the pre-season and perform better than he does in the regular season to justify this poor, withered up, ancient 26 year old hasn't turned to dust.
I'm not fishing for a debate; just sharing thoughts. I honestly don't see why people tear into Foster so readily and can't seem to fathom that this just might be a team that says "yeah Arian, we know...you're good. You know what you're doing. We probably shouldn't press with this because we are a team in the window to make a deep playoff run and, oh by the way, we know we have a decision to make on Tate this year so it probably wouldn't hurt to give him and the other Rbs some run in the pre-season so we can evaluate that a little bit."
Its just kind of silly. Everyone in FF scours every tidbit of news they can get, dreaming of grabbing a 3-down back and then when they get it they worry that he will actually be used as a 3-down back. Instead of being concerned that the guy has been used, we should be glad that his team uses him AND he answers the bell and outperforms his peers. But...for whatever reason, when it's Foster its the end of the world but when its some guy that everyone hyped early on, "its just the beginning of a great thing".
Shutout
Footballguy
And Aj Green and Peterson has been held out and TRICH missed time. Doug Martin left with a head issue/concussion (nothing to gloss over these days). Didn't Julio and Roddy miss a game too. Tony Gonzalez didn't even show up till the other day.
NFL coaches understand that Pre-Season games are more important to their back end of their roster than their known stars. I'd say they might be apologetic to us in fantasy world that have different priorities but when it comes down to it, coaches aren't going to risk their star players in fake games. They are going to take precautions and use the time to watch the unknown talent try to secure themselves a roster spot. They have nothing in the world to gain by trotting out a Calvin with a strained calf out there and everything to lose. Look at the Steelers the other night. Some might wonder if Bell's injury is tied to his existing one. Would they perhaps have been wiser to just sit Bell a week or so?
Personally, all these things people gripe about endlessly on these boards about ticky tack minor injuries is silly. If your player sat out all year for an ACL and you want to see if he returned ok, then "yeah" it makes sense but if you hear a guy has a strain or a tweak and they don't play him then I say "great, he can't get hurt."
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I think you also have to consider the "Ben Tate" factor. He was supposed to come in and be the starter. He has the draft status and people were high on him. Foster just keeps Ben relegated to #2. Even last year there were staff members who dropped Foster a bit in rankings citing Ben Tate lurking behind him.
I think there are simply far too many concerns and flags on Foster in a year absolutely full of first round worthy RB1's.
Too much (perceived or actual) risk for the required price tag.
Please don't tell me that you are comparing Martin leaving one pre season game a little early due to getting a knee to the head with everything Foster has going on.
Short Corner
Footballguy
That's his MO. If you have injury concerns over AF, then you should be dropping anyone with a hang nail on your boards as well.
