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Arian Foster - Stud in 2014, or no? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
That's my thought but Johnson over the top should prevent that from happening, if Fitzpatrick can be a game manager and sling it to Andre Johnson this should be a great run-based Offense, no?
I mean, you don't go into the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick as your starting QB and imagine this team is going to try to pass the ball. Solid defense, likely plenty of rushing attempts to go around. If Foster is decent, play-action to the TE and WR should open up.
squistion
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
no
Phenix
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
no, the mileage thing rears its head again
Running backs dont come back from having wear and tear use
Running backs dont come back from having wear and tear use
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
The correlation between workload and decline is shaky at best, and Foster is 27 (28 in August). I doubt he returns all the way to form as a FF stud, but that's due to team / situation changes as opposed to having too many touches. Early ADP has him going as a high end RB2 -- I'll likely be passing at that price. Guys like Spiller, Morris, Bush, and Matthews are available later and seem to present more value at the RB2 spot.
pantherclub
Footballguy
um actually its not
I believe in last years "Running backs get them" thread (I am pretty sure it was that one) a lot of the posters gave great input and statistics into past running backs, their age, usage and subsequent rapid decline. Once I get a break from work I will try and find it and highlight the posts
steveski
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Every carry for a RB is a chance at a major injury so a high workload RB has a higher chance of being injured. However, high workload backs get those carries because they can be trusted to stay healthy.
Age and major injuries are what end RB careers. A low mileage RB might have a better shot at playing well past 30 (Priest Holmes, Barber, Riggins, Thomas Jones) but in the end age and injury catch up to everyone.
Greggity
Footballguy
In a recent dynasty draft spiller and morris went late rd3 while foster went mid 4th. I thought that was pretty good value...
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Yeah, it's pretty inconclusive. RBs get a high workload early on because they're both talented and durable. Those same high workload RBs are more likely to remain at that level of involvement relative to their lesser workload peers as they age because their still typically more talented and durable than are the RBs that weren't able to command that high workload.
Either way, projecting the immediate demise of 27 / 28 year old RBs based on either age OR workload isn't something that seems like a + EV play.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Curtis Martin disagrees.pantherclub said:
pantherclub
Footballguy
For every one exception I can name 10 that are the norm
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
It disproves your point. I wouldn't be surprised for a top 5 finish.
