Arian Foster (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Borbely]

I think people are severely underestimating how good Arian Foster is, especially regarding his talent. When I see him on the field, I see a back with good power, good speed, decent enough elusiveness to make people miss, exceptional at breaking tackles, and great vision and instincts. He is also a very good receiver out of the backfield. I think some are automatically discounting what Foster did because of the system and while that certainly helps him, it doesn't mean he doesn't have great talent. He is definitely not a product of the system. His pure physical talent may not be as good as Peterson or Chris Johnson, but his overall game is right up there. In my opinion, his vision, instincts, and ability to break tackles are off the charts.

I think Foster would thrive in any system and I'm sure this is the part where there will be disagreements.

For those that aren't believers in Foster, what specific parts of his game do you think are average or below?

For believers like me, I'd like to hear your opinions too.

 

[sihaokills]

I have seen Foster personally in high school. I knew he was going to be a stud

 

[zilladog]

Foster has more talent than slaton. Also more determination and desire to succeed (my evidence is the offseason last year, all the comments his teammates made about him, and the way he earned the job) and for all I know he understands the game better. But in terms of pure ability, nothin I've seen tells me he's anywhere near A.P, CJ, Charles, McFadden, SJax, Gore, or frankly many other 'top' RB's in the league today.

What I saw was a guy who was a tremendous executor of the called plays, but hardly creative.

What I saw was an Oline that to me, looked like the best in the league at run blocking and left gaping chasms for Foster to run through. Sure, he made the most of those holes, but any average RB could look good behind those guys (see Slaton, Steve).

The thing that impressed me the most about him was his second level play. Like when he got between LB's and made some really nice catches, having a great rhythm with Schaub in the passing game. But other than that, he seemed like a decent RB catching lightning in a bottle.

He is, however, still young. He has the tools to become a good back in any system, and more importantly the will. I'm just not convinced he's there yet.

 

[Tony Soprano]

I'm no Foster hater -- I "overdrafted" him in the fifth or 6th rounds of many redrafts last year, and he won me multiple championships.

That being said, there's a few things that make me nervous.

First, he put together a HUGE season last year... those expecting the exact same numbers are likely to be disappointed, as a statistical regression to the mean is likely.

Second, I think the HOU Oline is okay, but nothing special. You hope that they continue to improve.

Third, I would expect the offense to become a little bit more balanced... the run/pass ratio in 2010 was skewed prominently towards the run, in comparison to 2008/2009. A healthy Owen Daniels gives Schaub another huge, trusted target. Could that open up more room for Foster? Sure... but I believe that the run/pass ratio of play calls will slide somewhere between the '08-'09 ratios and the 2010 ratios.

Last, Ben Tate. Is he a better running back than Foster? Doubtful. But he will get PT if he can stay healthy and pass protect... the big question mark is how many carries does he take away from Foster. Remember, Tate was a 2nd round choice in 2010, supposedly handpicked by Kubiak.

Foster is a safe top-5 pick in any scoring system... but he's not a slam dunk, 1st overall pick like some see him.

 

[Detroit Revival]

I'm no Foster hater -- I "overdrafted" him in the fifth or 6th rounds of many redrafts last year, and he won me multiple championships.That being said, there's a few things that make me nervous.First, he put together a HUGE season last year... those expecting the exact same numbers are likely to be disappointed, as a statistical regression to the mean is likely.Second, I think the HOU Oline is okay, but nothing special. You hope that they continue to improve.Third, I would expect the offense to become a little bit more balanced... the run/pass ratio in 2010 was skewed prominently towards the run, in comparison to 2008/2009. A healthy Owen Daniels gives Schaub another huge, trusted target. Could that open up more room for Foster? Sure... but I believe that the run/pass ratio of play calls will slide somewhere between the '08-'09 ratios and the 2010 ratios.Last, Ben Tate. Is he a better running back than Foster? Doubtful. But he will get PT if he can stay healthy and pass protect... the big question mark is how many carries does he take away from Foster. Remember, Tate was a 2nd round choice in 2010, supposedly handpicked by Kubiak.Foster is a safe top-5 pick in any scoring system... but he's not a slam dunk, 1st overall pick like some see him.

To add to that thinking, Andre Johnson was playing part of the year hurt and didn't start all games either. Not having AJ for 3 games gave Foster a lot more action.

 

[Moonlight]

He's a good player who is more than a product of the Texans system. His problems in college were related to fumbling at key times. IMO should be a continuing top 5 back if healthy.

 

[Dez]

I think people are severely underestimating how good Arian Foster is, especially regarding his talent. When I see him on the field, I see a back with good power, good speed, decent enough elusiveness to make people miss, exceptional at breaking tackles, and great vision and instincts. He is also a very good receiver out of the backfield. I think some are automatically discounting what Foster did because of the system and while that certainly helps him, it doesn't mean he doesn't have great talent. He is definitely not a product of the system. His pure physical talent may not be as good as Peterson or Chris Johnson, but his overall game is right up there. In my opinion, his vision, instincts, and ability to break tackles are off the charts. I think Foster would thrive in any system and I'm sure this is the part where there will be disagreements. For those that aren't believers in Foster, what specific parts of his game do you think are average or below?For believers like me, I'd like to hear your opinions too.

Curious as to why you think every NFL team passed on this kid even in the 7th round of the NFL draft ?

 

[snellman]

I'm no Foster hater -- I "overdrafted" him in the fifth or 6th rounds of many redrafts last year, and he won me multiple championships.That being said, there's a few things that make me nervous.First, he put together a HUGE season last year... those expecting the exact same numbers are likely to be disappointed, as a statistical regression to the mean is likely.Second, I think the HOU Oline is okay, but nothing special. You hope that they continue to improve.Third, I would expect the offense to become a little bit more balanced... the run/pass ratio in 2010 was skewed prominently towards the run, in comparison to 2008/2009. A healthy Owen Daniels gives Schaub another huge, trusted target. Could that open up more room for Foster? Sure... but I believe that the run/pass ratio of play calls will slide somewhere between the '08-'09 ratios and the 2010 ratios.Last, Ben Tate. Is he a better running back than Foster? Doubtful. But he will get PT if he can stay healthy and pass protect... the big question mark is how many carries does he take away from Foster. Remember, Tate was a 2nd round choice in 2010, supposedly handpicked by Kubiak.Foster is a safe top-5 pick in any scoring system... but he's not a slam dunk, 1st overall pick like some see him.

I am starting to think the #3 or 4 pick is the spot to be this year. Everyone is jumping on the Foster and Charles bandwagon pretty heavy and forgetting about CJ and AD.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I've thought the same thing, I think he's the clear No.1 without any question. Those passing on him for CJ2 hoping for 2 years ago numbers or fall victim to ADP over him because they think it's a safer pick will be kicking themselves.

Foster is everything you want in a fantasy back.

 

[gethugefast1]

From Jamey Eisenberg

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/15208965

For my first pick, I'm going with Foster. He has the chance to repeat as the No. 1 running back after holding that title with his breakout season in 2010.

One complaint I've received about Foster being ranked No. 1 overall is that he will struggle to duplicate his performance from last season. That's a fair point, especially given the recent history for running backs, but the past 20 years suggest it's also possible Foster can remain on top.

If you look at the past three years, there have been three different No. 1 running backs at the end of the season in DeAngelo Williams (2008), Johnson (2009) and Foster. But prior to that, there were four repeat champions as the No. 1 Fantasy rusher in Marshall Faulk (2000-01), Priest Holmes (2002-03), Shaun Alexander (2004-05) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2006-07).

Going back a decade, Barry Sanders (1990-91) and Emmitt Smith (1992-95) also had back-to-back years as the No. 1 running back, with Smith holding that spot four years in a row. Why can't Foster start that trend again?

I understand why Fantasy owners are skeptical of Foster, who could turn out to be a one-year wonder. The NFL today isn't like it was when Faulk, Holmes, Alexander, Tomlinson, Sanders and Smith were dominating carries. Foster can easily be part of a dreaded tandem and lose touches to Ben Tate, who will return this season after being out for his rookie year with an injury.

Opponents are also well aware of Foster's ability after he had 327 carries for 1,616 yards and 16 touchdowns and 66 catches for 604 yards and two scores, and he will see tougher defenses. He also might be without Pro Bowl fullback Vonta Leach, who is a free agent.

But before you judge Foster -- and me for backing him -- let's take a look at those concerns. For starters, Texans offensive coordinator Rick Dennison has already said Foster is in no danger of losing significant touches to Tate. Said Dennison, "We're going to give (Tate) the ball a few times and see how he does. We're looking at it as he ended up with a redshirt year. He still has the ability that we liked to get him in the second round. We'll take some turns. Obviously, Arian's our No. 1 guy, and then we'll go from there."

If you look at last season when Derrick Ward was the No. 2 running back in Houston, Foster averaged 24 touches a game (20 carries and four catches), while Ward averaged just three carries a game. Assuming that Tate gets about five touches a game because he's more talented than Ward, that still leaves Foster looking at 20-plus touches.

The Texans also realize the importance of Leach and have stated they want to re-sign him. Houston's offensive line remains intact, and Pro Football Focus said following the year that "when all was said and done, the Texans were the only team whose entire offensive line graded positively."

Foster also has an amazing schedule this year against some of the worst run defenses in the NFL based on their finish in 2010. The Texans face the Colts, Jaguars and Titans twice, and all three teams were in the bottom 12 of run defenses last year. The same goes for Cleveland, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Oakland, which are all on the schedule.

Foster will also see good run defenses in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami and Atlanta -- all Top 10 teams in run defense last year -- but he had great outings last year against Top 10 run defenses in San Diego (31 Fantasy points), the Jets (23 Fantasy points) and Baltimore (12 Fantasy points). He won't back down from these tough opponents, and teams can't stack the line of scrimmage against him with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels on his side.

For me, the difference in Foster compared to Johnson and Peterson is the quarterback. Johnson could have rookie Jake Locker handing him the ball, and Peterson could have rookie Christian Ponder. Are those quarterbacks going to scare defenses? We know that could change in free agency, but Locker and Ponder are still potential starting options. None of them compare to Schaub.

Look, picking between Foster, Johnson and Peterson is like asking a parent to choose their favorite child. All are great, and you'll be happy with whoever you get on Draft Day.

But I'm sticking with Foster. If he stays healthy he has the best chance to succeed, and he should end up as the first No. 1 running back to repeat since Tomlinson. Foster is not going to be a one-year wonder.

 

[biju]

I've thought the same thing, I think he's the clear No.1 without any question. Those passing on him for CJ2 hoping for 2 years ago numbers or fall victim to ADP over him because they think it's a safer pick will be kicking themselves. Foster is everything you want in a fantasy back.

I'd save this quote for the 2012 offseason if he repeats his 2010 season, then he'll be everything I want in a back. I prefer to see consistency with the top picks--until then, there is a higher amount of risk.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I tried to find a negative with Foster and there are not many although by cherry picking some stats I was able to find something which is food for thought.....Now take this with a grain of salt, as it is looking at just Foster's rushing stats through selective weeks throughout the season.

-In weeks 2, 3, 5, 10, 11, 13 and 15 he had weeks where he averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc.

-Through those weeks he had 118 carries for 403 yards which would have been 3.41 ypc.

-Another way of looking at it was through 7 weeks his per week average would have been 16.9 rushes per game to go along with 57.6 yards rushing.

So in 7 of his 16 games he was very sub par at rushing the ball. He was able to make up for those sub par rushing numbers by scoring TD's and in catching a high number of receptions. Now even the best RB's will have off weeks and put up some clunkers so as long as Foster continues to catch a lot of passes and score a lot of TD's in those weeks he is struggling to rush the ball it will help with his consistent fantasy scoring. The Texans are a very good offense so he should get plenty of TD opportunites and you would think he would still catch a good number of passes so this will probably be a non issue.

 

[T with T]

Yes I agree Foster and Hillis are two guys that I am rooting for because I have them together on one team... I think Foster is a great back with good elusiveness, speed is good enough, not a burner but he is like 225 pounds and has great vision, cutback, great for the system he is in, is a very willing and capable receiver as shown by his 60+ catches, but what was noted earlier is the big question mark? Is he a Ryan Grant who shows flashes of being a top back and then toilet bowls... I personally don't see that big of numbers from 2010 but I think you can still see top 3 back status 1400 rushing 500 rec 50-60 catches 12-14 tds

Hillis worries me though because of being on the madden cover and the return of Hardesty. Any thoughts on that?

 

[Warhogs]

I think people are severely underestimating how good Arian Foster is, especially regarding his talent. When I see him on the field, I see a back with good power, good speed, decent enough elusiveness to make people miss, exceptional at breaking tackles, and great vision and instincts. He is also a very good receiver out of the backfield. I think some are automatically discounting what Foster did because of the system and while that certainly helps him, it doesn't mean he doesn't have great talent. He is definitely not a product of the system. His pure physical talent may not be as good as Peterson or Chris Johnson, but his overall game is right up there. In my opinion, his vision, instincts, and ability to break tackles are off the charts. I think Foster would thrive in any system and I'm sure this is the part where there will be disagreements. For those that aren't believers in Foster, what specific parts of his game do you think are average or below?For believers like me, I'd like to hear your opinions too.

Curious as to why you think every NFL team passed on this kid even in the 7th round of the NFL draft ?

I'm not sure it means a lot that every team pased up on him. That Priest Holmes guy was pretty good for several years. Even with the efforts that all teams do scouting there are several guys the scouts miss on (early round pick busts and late round gems).

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I think people are severely underestimating how good Arian Foster is, especially regarding his talent. When I see him on the field, I see a back with good power, good speed, decent enough elusiveness to make people miss, exceptional at breaking tackles, and great vision and instincts. He is also a very good receiver out of the backfield. I think some are automatically discounting what Foster did because of the system and while that certainly helps him, it doesn't mean he doesn't have great talent. He is definitely not a product of the system. His pure physical talent may not be as good as Peterson or Chris Johnson, but his overall game is right up there. In my opinion, his vision, instincts, and ability to break tackles are off the charts. I think Foster would thrive in any system and I'm sure this is the part where there will be disagreements. For those that aren't believers in Foster, what specific parts of his game do you think are average or below?For believers like me, I'd like to hear your opinions too.

Curious as to why you think every NFL team passed on this kid even in the 7th round of the NFL draft ?

I'm not sure it means a lot that every team pased up on him. That Priest Holmes guy was pretty good for several years. Even with the efforts that all teams do scouting there are several guys the scouts miss on (early round pick busts and late round gems).

I missed this question before, but pretty much agree with this response. If draft status was that important, JaMarcus Russell would be a stud. Even the so-called experts miss a few.

 

[loose circuits]

not one person has mentioned a significant weakness in his game other than "he's just not likely to repeat last years numbers" or 32 teams passed him up?

 

[Instinctive]

Yes I agree Foster and Hillis are two guys that I am rooting for because I have them together on one team... I think Foster is a great back with good elusiveness, speed is good enough, not a burner but he is like 225 pounds and has great vision, cutback, great for the system he is in, is a very willing and capable receiver as shown by his 60+ catches, but what was noted earlier is the big question mark? Is he a Ryan Grant who shows flashes of being a top back and then toilet bowls... I personally don't see that big of numbers from 2010 but I think you can still see top 3 back status 1400 rushing 500 rec 50-60 catches 12-14 tds

Hillis worries me though because of being on the madden cover and the return of Hardesty. Any thoughts on that?

This is an awful statement. Ryan Grant was a GREAT Fantasy RB1 from the time he got the job til the time he was injured and out for the season.

 

[biju]

not one person has mentioned a significant weakness in his game other than "he's just not likely to repeat last years numbers" or 32 teams passed him up?

Maybe I'm not understanding the statement, but doesn't "system back" mean it would be difficult to mention a specific weakness because it isn't readily evident? Not that I'm directly comparing the two backs as I do truly feel Foster is a better player, but couldn't the exact same thing have been said about Steve Slaton during the 2009 preseason?I can't identify a weakness in his game, but I do find weakness in the fact that he's done it exactly one year. This feels more like a Foster owner's support thread instead of a rational discussion of what people should be concerned with. The guy might very well be the next huge FF back, but I need more data before I use that first overall pick on him. Am I leaving points on the table? Maybe, but I'll sleep better the night after my draft...

 

[loose circuits]

not one person has mentioned a significant weakness in his game other than "he's just not likely to repeat last years numbers" or 32 teams passed him up?

Maybe I'm not understanding the statement, but doesn't "system back" mean it would be difficult to mention a specific weakness because it isn't readily evident? Not that I'm directly comparing the two backs as I do truly feel Foster is a better player, but couldn't the exact same thing have been said about Steve Slaton during the 2009 preseason?I can't identify a weakness in his game, but I do find weakness in the fact that he's done it exactly one year. This feels more like a Foster owner's support thread instead of a rational discussion of what people should be concerned with. The guy might very well be the next huge FF back, but I need more data before I use that first overall pick on him. Am I leaving points on the table? Maybe, but I'll sleep better the night after my draft...

Even Slaton's own coach repeatedly said he didn't think he'd hold up to a full load. He didn't have the size or power of a feature back.I've loved Foster since I saw him play briefly at Tenn and he showed power/vision and some decent quicks for a big guy. I believe most people are unconvinced because he's a UDFA which I think is a mistake because that happened by chance. Actually probably for the better as he used it as motivation to workout all last off season, it's amazing what a little work ethic will do for you. I could be wrong, doesn't matter to me as I have Ward/Tate as insurance anyways...but I expect big things from Foster and think he's just as safe as any of the other guys in that category

 

[Anthony Borbely]

not one person has mentioned a significant weakness in his game other than "he's just not likely to repeat last years numbers" or 32 teams passed him up?

Maybe I'm not understanding the statement, but doesn't "system back" mean it would be difficult to mention a specific weakness because it isn't readily evident? Not that I'm directly comparing the two backs as I do truly feel Foster is a better player, but couldn't the exact same thing have been said about Steve Slaton during the 2009 preseason?I can't identify a weakness in his game, but I do find weakness in the fact that he's done it exactly one year. This feels more like a Foster owner's support thread instead of a rational discussion of what people should be concerned with. The guy might very well be the next huge FF back, but I need more data before I use that first overall pick on him. Am I leaving points on the table? Maybe, but I'll sleep better the night after my draft...

Basically, if people think Foster is a marginal talent that is a product of the system, it means he has flaws in his game that were not exposed because of the system he plays in. There have been many comments in many different threads stating that and I want to hear the parts of Foster's game that justify those comments. I happen to think Foster is an elite RB that would be a stud in any system, for the reasons I posted in the original post. I was interested in hearing the reasons people disagree.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Ride with me a minute here and hear me out. I own Foster in all my dynasty leagues but I want to say that I do not think he has elite magical powers and that is what separates him from the rest of the pack, in fact I woud argue heavily against that. In the NFL I think most RBs that are given the right circumstances can all succeed with different degrees of success. Foster plays in an offense that has a lot of weapons in the passing game so he has a huge air attack in front or rght behind him depending on your POV.

I wouldn't say that Foster is in the same league as guys like Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Mrshall Faulk, or LaDainian Tomlinson...but you know what? He does't have to be and his skills are not the driving factor here IMO. If people want to get excited about him and feel compelled to find solid reasoning to pick him 1st overall...I sure don't think he has the same skills as say Chris Johnson who I expect to bounce back hard this year.

But because he has so much talent around him now in this offense, add in a tough division with Indy, and a team that still is not eite on defense...you have the makings of a team that wll still want to try and score 30+ a week so they can attept to win 11-12 games and maybe get a 1st round bye. So you all argue over how much talent he has until your fingers fall off, I think there is no way to prove or disprove it but I rather focus on the following...

-High Octane Offense

-Offense and system are well in place and the learning curve is over

-Defensive syste is new and in flux. I envision 35-31 scores several weeks

-Coach knows he has to control the clock to shorten the game to win more games and his job is on the line this year for sure

-Ability to catch and run for Foster

-Can be a 3 down back no matter who is behind him

The rest is for you all to discuss but I think Foster anywhere in the top 3-5 is justified and if you take him #1 overall you won't be crying. He should be good for 100 yds an a TD almost every week with the ability to produce more in this system. I don't think folks are sleeping, more like waking up from hybernation. Good Gawd can we get the new deal done already?!!!

 

[Badgers Fan]

Not mentioned- Foster is also an excellent goal line back.

 

[dickey moe]

Only one season to base opinions on?

 

[Tanner9919]

I tried to find a negative with Foster and there are not many although by cherry picking some stats I was able to find something which is food for thought.....Now take this with a grain of salt, as it is looking at just Foster's rushing stats through selective weeks throughout the season.-In weeks 2, 3, 5, 10, 11, 13 and 15 he had weeks where he averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc. -Through those weeks he had 118 carries for 403 yards which would have been 3.41 ypc. -Another way of looking at it was through 7 weeks his per week average would have been 16.9 rushes per game to go along with 57.6 yards rushing.So in 7 of his 16 games he was very sub par at rushing the ball. He was able to make up for those sub par rushing numbers by scoring TD's and in catching a high number of receptions. Now even the best RB's will have off weeks and put up some clunkers so as long as Foster continues to catch a lot of passes and score a lot of TD's in those weeks he is struggling to rush the ball it will help with his consistent fantasy scoring. The Texans are a very good offense so he should get plenty of TD opportunites and you would think he would still catch a good number of passes so this will probably be a non issue.

I think you've picked the wrong weeks:week 3: 17-106week 10: 22-84, 2 TDsweek 11: 30-143, 9-75week 13: 20-100week 15: 19-91, 4-44, 1TDI'm afraid you were incorrect with his stats during this weeks..if you want to look at it another way, in only 4 games did Arian Foster fail to rush for 70 or more yards.but he also had eight 100+ yard games, with seven multiple TD games..Think of him as Houston's version of Terrell Davis before the injury.

 

[loose circuits]

still no real holes in his game mentioned? Just that we don't have a big enough sample size of production?