thekidd2009
Footballguy
Any opinions on tonight's game? My friend is determined to bet on tonight's game because he's down alot of money. Who do you guys like tonight?
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Arizona vs San Fran +4 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter thekidd2009
- Start date
thekidd2009
Footballguy
HAHAHA....i've been trying to tell him not to press to make his money back but he won't listen. This one website he looks at is laying 8units on the 49ers....
I'm putting 16u on the Cards
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
I'd take the 9ers but I'm a sucker for the points.
Stingdiddy
Footballguy
I like the Cards. I'm 10-5 ATS so far this week, so, pretty decent. What's the over/under? I like alot of points tonight.
thekidd2009
Footballguy
o/u 45
thekidd2009
Footballguy
Here is the guys writeup that's putting 8 units on the 49ers...this guy seems to be money early on in the year but fades late.
# ARIZONA OFFENSE: The first time the Cardinals battled the 49ers, Kurt Warner was just 26-of-44 for 288 yards (6.5 YPA), one touchdown and two interceptions. He clearly didn't look right. It was the first week of the year, and I ranted on about how his surgically repaired hip wasn't holding up well.
Warner has obviously improved since his Week 4 bye, and ever since that fluky five-interception performance against the Panthers, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and zero picks in four starts. That's pretty amazing.
The 49ers' issues against the pass are well-documented. Prior to taking on the crappy Seahawks last week, San Francisco had allowed all but one quarterback to register at least 246 passing yards in each game, dating back to Oct. 11.
It's doubtful that the 49ers will be able to get much pressure on Warner - not even the Vikings could do that - so San Francisco could have major problems forcing Arizona into punting situations.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have improved offensively. Alex Smith has really thrived since Mike Singletary installed the spread shotgun offense; in his past three games, Smith has compiled 769 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. In his previous two outings, Smith has been sacked only once.
It really helps Smith that he has a few talented weapons to work with. Vernon Davis is now one of the top tight ends in the NFL. Michael Crabtree, despite dropping a touchdown last week, is a dynamic receiver who just keeps getting more comfortable each game. Josh Morgan (12 catches, 99 yards, TD the last two weeks) is a pretty good tertiary option. And who could forget Frank Gore coming out of the backfield?
While the Cardinals put the clamps on Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson last week, remember that they are just a week removed from allowing Vince Young to throw for nearly 400 yards. A few weeks before that, Matt Hasselbeck passed all over them as well.
RECAP: After much deliberation, I've decided to make the 49ers my December NFL Pick of the Month. A few reasons why:
MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS: In 2007, one of my NFL Picks of the Month was on the Bills getting 10 against the Cowboys. People called me insane for liking Buffalo to win straight-up, but I knew it was going to be an enormously emotional game for that team. They hadn't hosted a Monday night game in years, so they were able to feed off their rabid crowd. As giant underdogs, they held a late lead against Dallas before choking it away at the end. The Cowboys won 25-24, but the important thing was that Buffalo still covered.
Last year, I placed a 5-unit wager on the Texans -3 over the Jaguars. Like the Bills, Houston was hosting its first Monday night game in years (the previous one was when the Oilers were still in town). The Texans wore their Battle Red jerseys and completely demolished a Jaguars team getting the majority of the money in that contest. Houston won, 30-17.
This is the exact same situation. This San Francisco crowd hasn't seen a Monday night contest in a long time. The fans will be fired up and the 49ers will feed off of that emotion. This will be their chance to prove that they are a playoff contender in this league.
But can they still make the playoffs?
PLAYOFFS ON THE LINE: The 49ers are three games back with four to go. All the talk circled around them beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals losing to the Vikings last week, neither of which happened. So how in the world can San Francisco make the Doggone Playoff?
Here's how: If they beat the Cardinals on Monday night, they'll be two games back with three remaining. That may seem like an improbable hurdle to overcome, but remember that they'll have the tie-breaker over Arizona. So, if they win out, they'll be 9-7. They then would need the Cardinals to lose two of their three remaining contests, which can definitely happen. You just never know. The 49ers are definitely not out of it.
MEANINGLESS GAME: Conversely, this game means nothing to the Cardinals. They need a miracle to catch the Vikings for a bye, and they're not in danger of missing the postseason.
Seriously, what does Arizona have to play for here? While this game means the world to San Francisco, it's completely insignificant to the Cardinals. They just had a big victory over the Vikings, so how will they get up for a lowly 5-7 squad? I just don't see why they would bring any sort of intensity here.
ALWAYS CLOSE: Even if the Cardinals cover the spread, I really can't see them blowing out the 49ers.
Ken Whisenhunt has played San Francisco five times and has been favored over them in all but one of the matchups. Here's how they went down:
09/10/07 at San Francisco (SF -3): 49ers 20, Cardinals 17.
12/25/07 at Arizona (ARZ -10): 49ers 37, Cardinals 31.
09/08/08 at San Francisco (ARZ -3): Cardinals 23, 49ers 13.
11/10/08 at Arizona (ARZ -9.5): Cardinals 29, 49ers 24.
09/13/09 at Arizona (ARZ -6): 49ers 20, Cardinals 16.
These teams hate each other, so it should be no surprise that the underdog has gotten up for each meeting. The dog in this rivalry is 3-0-1 against the spread since Whisenhunt made the Cardinals competitive, and the average margin of victory in these matchups is 5.6 points in that span.
In other words, it's very unlikely that this will be an Arizona blowout, as many people are projecting.
PUBLIC MONEY: And speaking of projection, the public is pounding the Cardinals like they know the final score of the game. Everyone saw Arizona trash Brett Favre and the Vikings, and people are taking out second mortgages to bet the Cardinals, who are laying ONLY 3.5 points in this contest. This is one of the more lopsided Monday night games of the year in terms of betting action.
Vegas knows all, and the oddsmakers have come out with a tiny spread like this to lure gamblers into betting the visitor. I'm guessing that the sportsbooks know what I know - that this is a heavily contested rivalry in which the 49ers have everything to play for, while the Cardinals won't exactly be desperate for a victory.
The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
The 49ers will be pumped to host their first Monday night game since Week 1, 2007. This will be their chance to show everyone that they are a legit team. The Cardinals, meanwhile, might not be up for this contest after blasting the Vikings in a statement game.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
What a shady line. After watching the Cardinals debaclize the Vikings, the public is pounding this small spread.
# Percentage of money on Arizona: 89% (210,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
# History: Cardinals have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
# Cardinals are 7-3 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.
# Opening Line: Cardinals -3.
# Opening Total: 44.5.
# Weather: Showers, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.
# For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.
Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 24
49ers +4.5 (8 Units - December NFL Pick of the Month)
Over 45 (0 Units)
# ARIZONA OFFENSE: The first time the Cardinals battled the 49ers, Kurt Warner was just 26-of-44 for 288 yards (6.5 YPA), one touchdown and two interceptions. He clearly didn't look right. It was the first week of the year, and I ranted on about how his surgically repaired hip wasn't holding up well.
Warner has obviously improved since his Week 4 bye, and ever since that fluky five-interception performance against the Panthers, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and zero picks in four starts. That's pretty amazing.
The 49ers' issues against the pass are well-documented. Prior to taking on the crappy Seahawks last week, San Francisco had allowed all but one quarterback to register at least 246 passing yards in each game, dating back to Oct. 11.
It's doubtful that the 49ers will be able to get much pressure on Warner - not even the Vikings could do that - so San Francisco could have major problems forcing Arizona into punting situations.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have improved offensively. Alex Smith has really thrived since Mike Singletary installed the spread shotgun offense; in his past three games, Smith has compiled 769 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. In his previous two outings, Smith has been sacked only once.
It really helps Smith that he has a few talented weapons to work with. Vernon Davis is now one of the top tight ends in the NFL. Michael Crabtree, despite dropping a touchdown last week, is a dynamic receiver who just keeps getting more comfortable each game. Josh Morgan (12 catches, 99 yards, TD the last two weeks) is a pretty good tertiary option. And who could forget Frank Gore coming out of the backfield?
While the Cardinals put the clamps on Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson last week, remember that they are just a week removed from allowing Vince Young to throw for nearly 400 yards. A few weeks before that, Matt Hasselbeck passed all over them as well.
RECAP: After much deliberation, I've decided to make the 49ers my December NFL Pick of the Month. A few reasons why:
MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS: In 2007, one of my NFL Picks of the Month was on the Bills getting 10 against the Cowboys. People called me insane for liking Buffalo to win straight-up, but I knew it was going to be an enormously emotional game for that team. They hadn't hosted a Monday night game in years, so they were able to feed off their rabid crowd. As giant underdogs, they held a late lead against Dallas before choking it away at the end. The Cowboys won 25-24, but the important thing was that Buffalo still covered.
Last year, I placed a 5-unit wager on the Texans -3 over the Jaguars. Like the Bills, Houston was hosting its first Monday night game in years (the previous one was when the Oilers were still in town). The Texans wore their Battle Red jerseys and completely demolished a Jaguars team getting the majority of the money in that contest. Houston won, 30-17.
This is the exact same situation. This San Francisco crowd hasn't seen a Monday night contest in a long time. The fans will be fired up and the 49ers will feed off of that emotion. This will be their chance to prove that they are a playoff contender in this league.
But can they still make the playoffs?
PLAYOFFS ON THE LINE: The 49ers are three games back with four to go. All the talk circled around them beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals losing to the Vikings last week, neither of which happened. So how in the world can San Francisco make the Doggone Playoff?
Here's how: If they beat the Cardinals on Monday night, they'll be two games back with three remaining. That may seem like an improbable hurdle to overcome, but remember that they'll have the tie-breaker over Arizona. So, if they win out, they'll be 9-7. They then would need the Cardinals to lose two of their three remaining contests, which can definitely happen. You just never know. The 49ers are definitely not out of it.
MEANINGLESS GAME: Conversely, this game means nothing to the Cardinals. They need a miracle to catch the Vikings for a bye, and they're not in danger of missing the postseason.
Seriously, what does Arizona have to play for here? While this game means the world to San Francisco, it's completely insignificant to the Cardinals. They just had a big victory over the Vikings, so how will they get up for a lowly 5-7 squad? I just don't see why they would bring any sort of intensity here.
ALWAYS CLOSE: Even if the Cardinals cover the spread, I really can't see them blowing out the 49ers.
Ken Whisenhunt has played San Francisco five times and has been favored over them in all but one of the matchups. Here's how they went down:
09/10/07 at San Francisco (SF -3): 49ers 20, Cardinals 17.
12/25/07 at Arizona (ARZ -10): 49ers 37, Cardinals 31.
09/08/08 at San Francisco (ARZ -3): Cardinals 23, 49ers 13.
11/10/08 at Arizona (ARZ -9.5): Cardinals 29, 49ers 24.
09/13/09 at Arizona (ARZ -6): 49ers 20, Cardinals 16.
These teams hate each other, so it should be no surprise that the underdog has gotten up for each meeting. The dog in this rivalry is 3-0-1 against the spread since Whisenhunt made the Cardinals competitive, and the average margin of victory in these matchups is 5.6 points in that span.
In other words, it's very unlikely that this will be an Arizona blowout, as many people are projecting.
PUBLIC MONEY: And speaking of projection, the public is pounding the Cardinals like they know the final score of the game. Everyone saw Arizona trash Brett Favre and the Vikings, and people are taking out second mortgages to bet the Cardinals, who are laying ONLY 3.5 points in this contest. This is one of the more lopsided Monday night games of the year in terms of betting action.
Vegas knows all, and the oddsmakers have come out with a tiny spread like this to lure gamblers into betting the visitor. I'm guessing that the sportsbooks know what I know - that this is a heavily contested rivalry in which the 49ers have everything to play for, while the Cardinals won't exactly be desperate for a victory.
The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
The 49ers will be pumped to host their first Monday night game since Week 1, 2007. This will be their chance to show everyone that they are a legit team. The Cardinals, meanwhile, might not be up for this contest after blasting the Vikings in a statement game.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
What a shady line. After watching the Cardinals debaclize the Vikings, the public is pounding this small spread.
# Percentage of money on Arizona: 89% (210,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
# History: Cardinals have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
# Cardinals are 7-3 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.
# Opening Line: Cardinals -3.
# Opening Total: 44.5.
# Weather: Showers, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.
# For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.
Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 24
49ers +4.5 (8 Units - December NFL Pick of the Month)
Over 45 (0 Units)
FFCardsFan
Footballguy
31- 21 Cardinals
Give the points and take the over.
Give the points and take the over.
thekidd2009
Footballguy
It's an ongoing joke on this website...It started out as mocking Emmitt Smith's terrible grammar.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
The Cardinals usually have a major let down after a big win. Had this game been a Sunday afternoon game I would have bet 9ers but on the big stage minus Nate Clements I think AZ actually blows them out.
You have guys like Boldin, Dockett wanting new money this is the type of game thats gets the money.
49ers also bet them week 1 and I think a revenge factor is in order. I know from what I read the Cardinals were emotional over that loss.
You have guys like Boldin, Dockett wanting new money this is the type of game thats gets the money.
49ers also bet them week 1 and I think a revenge factor is in order. I know from what I read the Cardinals were emotional over that loss.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Betting on a game because you are down big sounds dangerous...
Anyway, I say Arz -4 is the way to go...
Anyway, I say Arz -4 is the way to go...
Stingdiddy
Footballguy
Well, if AZ would stop jumping offsides, they may have a shot to cover here. Since everyone in this thread, or at least most people, like AZ, chances are SF will cover.
Stingdiddy
Footballguy
Hmmm, let's hope that call holds up.
Stingdiddy
Footballguy
Yep, that's a catch. Who did the Original Poster's friend take? Did he make a bet?
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I don't get it. Why do the Niners throw the ball 75% of the time again?
JZilla
Footballguy
I guess that's what you do when you have no running back but a great QB and top notch receivers
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
I do too.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I needed Warner to outscore the Cards defense by 5 pts tonight to make the playoffs and guarantee myself $150. I think I'm gonna puke.
Billy1x
Footballguy
If its a concusion HE IS DONE. Holding his head like its hurting. Could be the bright lights are giving him a severe migraine. Doubt he will be back - at least tonight. They said he can't stand bright lights last weekEdit: He's back for now but I still bet the bright lights are whats bothering him.
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Limp Ditka
Footballguy
He's coming back out.
Stingdiddy
Footballguy
He's back...tough. He'll be fine.
Arch Stanton
Footballguy
I absolutely LOVE that Heineken commercial. Don't drink and drive! Istead, be safer and get into a cab with a driver who closes his eyes to sing along with you while he's driving.
Stingdiddy
Footballguy
"YOUUUUUU, YOU GOT WHAT I NEE-EEEEEED"...great stuff.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Hopefully that's the end of Hightower.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
hmm maybe there is a reason the Cardinals are an under the radar team.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Is Warner playing? I'm stuck at work here.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
What a catch.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yes, Warner is playing.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Fitz is a beast. No doubt about it......thats a catch!!!
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Thanks
This is going to be really interesting. I think it's incomplete because he didn't maintain control all the way through his fall. (Not an INT because the ball hit the ground.)
I hope so....I can't see it, I'm at work listening to the radio broadcast.
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valhallan
Footballguy
layingagainstwarner:
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
On second thought........no catch. He's still a beast though.
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SPM
Footballguy
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
That rule makes my head hurt and pisses me off.
The refs have been pretty consistent about that call this season. It may be a bad rule, but they applied it correctly that time -- or, at least, they applied the same way they had in previous games.If a player is falling while in the act of catching the ball, he has to maintain control all the way through his fall. (So that, basically, he could get up with the ball if he wanted to -- and Fitzgerald couldn't.)
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