ASJ vs. Ladarius Green (1 Viewer)

[PRAE]

Thinking about moving one of these guys in my dynasty league.  With that said, who do you think has more value moving forward in Dynasty Leagues?  ASJ has missed half of this games in two seasons... Green hasnt gotten much of an opportunity, but landing in Pitt should be ideal.  What you think?

 

[Arodin]

Would make a good poll.  Not sure how I'd vote on that one.  Two guys who neither has yet lived up to his potential.

 

[PRAE]

Would make a good poll.  Not sure how I'd vote on that one.  Two guys who neither has yet lived up to his potential.

done

 

[FreshiZ]

I go with Green just because of the offense he is in. 

 

[Sabertooth]

Would make a good poll.  Not sure how I'd vote on that one.  Two guys who neither has yet lived up to his potential.

Not so sure on that.  Ladarius was just fine last season handling the load in Gates' absence.  He just happened to have a Hall of Famer in front of him.  I think he's going to challenge for Top 5 this year. 

 

[mikel2014]

On the surface they seem similar but for whatever reason I love Ladarius and hate ASJ. I fully expect a Ladarius Green breakout this season. In Tampa, I wouldn't be surprised if Brate and ASJ finish with similar numbers. 

 

[georg013]

ASJ may not even be the starter in TB. Read somewhere that he is being pushed by the backup. He has performed worse than Ebron yet Eric gets all the hate. 

 

[Milkman]

Not so sure on that.  Ladarius was just fine last season handling the load in Gates' absence.  He just happened to have a Hall of Famer in front of him.  I think he's going to challenge for Top 5 this year. 

I'd take that a step further and say Ladarius Green has done well whenever he's started. The sample is not huge and I don't remember the numbers exactly but he's like the 2nd best TE in the league behind only Gronk when he starts.......I think he has a chance to challenge for top 5 as well. Pittsburgh is not the ideal landing spot but it's a good landing spot. NO would have been better........

Looking at the usage rate for TE in Pittsburgh and his ceiling is capped a little but Big Ben is super underrated and I see him making Green better.........

 

[Milkman]

ASJ may not even be the starter in TB. Read somewhere that he is being pushed by the backup. He has performed worse than Ebron yet Eric gets all the hate. 

LOL ahhhh no.

ASJ has flashed when he's on the field. Looking like a beast among boys at times. The flashes have been very limited though because he just can't stay healthy.

The only time Ebron has flashed in his career is in the locker room after a game. He's been terrible and might be the biggest bust of his draft class.

 

[BigTex]

I can't help but to think that there's a reason SD let Green go in FA. I know Gates is still there but if Green had any true value why would they let him go then draft another TE?

Im voting ASJ on this one.

 

[Milkman]

I can't help but to think that there's a reason SD let Green go in FA. I know Gates is still there but if Green had any true value why would they let him go then draft another TE?

Im voting ASJ on this one.

It's my understanding SD wanted Green back. There's some great SD homers that post here so maybe they'll chime in but imo if Green had any desire at all at becoming the best player he could be he had to leave SD for a starting gig.

 

[mikel2014]

It's my understanding SD wanted Green back. There's some great SD homers that post here so maybe they'll chime in but imo if Green had any desire at all at becoming the best player he could be he had to leave SD for a starting gig.

Plus 4 years and 20 million isn't exactly chump change. SD might not have been able to give him a compelling enough offer to stay 

 

[BoltBacker]

I can't help but to think that there's a reason SD let Green go in FA. I know Gates is still there but if Green had any true value why would they let him go then draft another TE?

Well, the decision was made by the same guy that used three draft picks to draft Gordon. That said, the coaches never seemed to have any interest in using two very good TE's at the same time even when the wr's were wrecked with injuries(great idea to draft another TE at the top of the second, eh?). I don't blame them for bringing back a first ballot HOF'er the way some do. I just question the wisdom of paying more for Benjamin than Green would have cost. Rivers has never been that guy to throw the ball a mile down field to a little guy and let the smurf run underneath it. It's not how he plays.

Often times it appears Telesco is building a roster using the measured thought process of a blinfolded child swinging at a pinata. Don't read too much into the moves, it will make your head hurt.

 

[BoltBacker]

Plus 4 years and 20 million isn't exactly chump change. SD might not have been able to give him a compelling enough offer to stay 

I think SD had more salary cap wiggle room at the time than PIT, and in 4 years $5mil for a starting caliber TE still in his prime absolutely will be chump change.

 

[Tau837]

I have watched every snap of Green's career.

Green showed impressive ability at times. Yet he could not earn a bigger role with the Chargers despite playing for 2 head coaches and 3 offensive coordinators. The Chargers organization is not one of the better organizations in football, and I have plenty of issues with their decisions. But you have to assign a portion of the blame to the player. It's not like the coaches didn't want to win games. If they felt using Green more/differently would have helped to do that, they would have used him more/differently. Apparently, he didn't do enough in practice or in games to force them to do that.

In 2013-14, Green had 5 games in which he had 5 or more targets. In those games, he had 17/330/2 receiving on 27 targets. That is what got everyone excited about his potential.

Then in 2015, he had 8 games with 5 or more targets. In those games, he had 29/343/3 on 51 targets. His performance did not scale up with his targets. And that sample completely ignores his really low output games (8/86/1 on 12 targets in 5 other games). People may disagree on whether or not Gates outperformed Green last season or they were about the same... but Gates was 35 years old. Green had a great opportunity to force the coaching staff to take notice and increase his role, with Gates suspended for the first four games. He didn't do it. He was solid, not great.

One might think Green would be a good red zone target with his size and athleticism, but he wasn't in San Diego. He had 3 TDs on 15 red zone targets over the past 3 seasons. Over that same period, Gates had 17 TDs on 46 red zone targets.

Green also has a potential concussion problem. He had 2 concussions within 2 weeks last year and at one point had had three concussions in 9 months. I have seen Green quoted that it wasn't concussions, it was a sinus problem, but I am skeptical about that.

The market for Green didn't appear to be very strong based on the contract he got. It could be viewed as a "prove it" deal. This year his cap hit is $2.4M, but it jumps to $6.2M next year. If Green doesn't play well this season or cannot stay healthy, the Steelers could save $2.7M of their cap by cutting him after this season. After 2017, they could save $3.3M by cutting him.

Bottom line, I will be very surprised if Green truly breaks out. I don't know as much about ASJ but would take him over Green in this comparison.

 

[Milkman]

I have watched every snap of Green's career.

Green showed impressive ability at times. Yet he could not earn a bigger role with the Chargers despite playing for 2 head coaches and 3 offensive coordinators. The Chargers organization is not one of the better organizations in football, and I have plenty of issues with their decisions. But you have to assign a portion of the blame to the player. It's not like the coaches didn't want to win games. If they felt using Green more/differently would have helped to do that, they would have used him more/differently. Apparently, he didn't do enough in practice or in games to force them to do that.

In 2013-14, Green had 5 games in which he had 5 or more targets. In those games, he had 17/330/2 receiving on 27 targets. That is what got everyone excited about his potential.

Then in 2015, he had 8 games with 5 or more targets. In those games, he had 29/343/3 on 51 targets. His performance did not scale up with his targets. And that sample completely ignores his really low output games (8/86/1 on 12 targets in 5 other games). People may disagree on whether or not Gates outperformed Green last season or they were about the same... but Gates was 35 years old. Green had a great opportunity to force the coaching staff to take notice and increase his role, with Gates suspended for the first four games. He didn't do it. He was solid, not great.

One might think Green would be a good red zone target with his size and athleticism, but he wasn't in San Diego. He had 3 TDs on 15 red zone targets over the past 3 seasons. Over that same period, Gates had 17 TDs on 46 red zone targets.

Green also has a potential concussion problem. He had 2 concussions within 2 weeks last year and at one point had had three concussions in 9 months. I have seen Green quoted that it wasn't concussions, it was a sinus problem, but I am skeptical about that.

The market for Green didn't appear to be very strong based on the contract he got. It could be viewed as a "prove it" deal. This year his cap hit is $2.4M, but it jumps to $6.2M next year. If Green doesn't play well this season or cannot stay healthy, the Steelers could save $2.7M of their cap by cutting him after this season. After 2017, they could save $3.3M by cutting him.

Bottom line, I will be very surprised if Green truly breaks out. I don't know as much about ASJ but would take him over Green in this comparison.

Great post! I disagree but it seems like you are taking games where he had 5 or more targets and I'm taking games he started that Gates was out. They paint two totally different pictures.

 

[BigTex]

Interesting points on both sides. Gates being out at the beginning of the season and Green not taking advantage is what really sticks out the most. If he was what we thought he was why didn't he put the old man on the bench. Gates is older granted he's still productive but I could seeing at times his age starting to show.

Just my small observation so take it for what it is.

Tex

 

[Dezbelief]

Sell both now. 

 

[LBH]

Green easily for me

 

[LoveThemTDs]

Nice post with a ton of interesting info JWB.  It makes me want to look into getting more Jesse James stock.

 

[Abspara]

LOL ahhhh no.

ASJ has flashed when he's on the field. Looking like a beast among boys at times. The flashes have been very limited though because he just can't stay healthy.

The only time Ebron has flashed in his career is in the locker room after a game. He's been terrible and might be the biggest bust of his draft class.

Exactly. Aside from the nasty injuries ASJ has had. He has shown much more potential than Ebron has up to this point.

 

[Milkman]

If you prorated Ladarius Greens numbers when he started and Gates was out over an entire season he'd put up 61-964-11. That's 223 points in PPR a top 6 season this year right behind Olsen's 227. That's with only 79% of the targets the top five TE averaged last year. JWB makes the argument that Green didn't do anything to command those targets and maybe he has a point but there lots of examples I could show on tape where Green is running wide open and not getting the ball thrown his way. Maybe Rivers didn't trust him because Green didn't earn it. Or maybe Rivers locks into his first(Gates) or second read(Gates). Nobody will deny Rivers loves targeting Gates.Lots of times Green is the 4th read it seems on the play. He's almost never going to get that target........

 

[dipandglide]

Great discussion. I don't have much to add. 

This is a bit offtopic....

Would you guys take Fleener over both of these guys in dynasty? His landing spot couldn't be better. 

 

[Dezbelief]

Great discussion. I don't have much to add. 

This is a bit offtopic....

Would you guys take Fleener over both of these guys in dynasty? His landing spot couldn't be better. 

Yes

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Think the situations are actually close -- Roethlisberger wings it a lot too and they lost two of their top four targets.  Ultimately both guys are still unknowns, so it's hard to pick, but I'd shade it for Green just because he's almost 2 years younger.  If he hits he'll have a longer stretch of relevance.

 

[Tau837]

If you prorated Ladarius Greens numbers when he started and Gates was out over an entire season he'd put up 61-964-11. That's 223 points in PPR a top 6 season this year right behind Olsen's 227. That's with only 79% of the targets the top five TE averaged last year.

Green started 4 games last season that Gates did not play: weeks 1, 2, 4, and 7. He had 18/219/3 on 27 targets in those games. That projects to 72/876/12 on 104 targets if scaled to 16 games. Not sure why your numbers are different.The only other game in Green's career that Gates did not play was game 2 of 2012. Green had 1/31/0 on 1 target in that game, but it was only the second game of his career.

There are problems with scaling up from small sample sizes. For example, in those 4 games in 2015, Green faced defenses that ranked #29, #6, #14, and #30 in fantasy points allowed to TEs. In a 16 game season as a starter, he will likely face a harder schedule overall. Another issue is how likely he is to actually play 16 games. He has done that once in his career, in 2013, but his snap count was a lot lower then than it will be now.

Overall, Green had 37/429/4 on 63 targets in 13 games last season. Scale that up to 16 games, and he would have gotten 46/528/5 on 77 targets.

Miller only had 81 targets for Pittsburgh last season (in 15 games). He produced 60/535/2. For those of you expecting Green to break out, how many targets are you expecting? What kind of production?

JWB makes the argument that Green didn't do anything to command those targets and maybe he has a point but there lots of examples I could show on tape where Green is running wide open and not getting the ball thrown his way. Maybe Rivers didn't trust him because Green didn't earn it. Or maybe Rivers locks into his first(Gates) or second read(Gates). Nobody will deny Rivers loves targeting Gates.Lots of times Green is the 4th read it seems on the play. He's almost never going to get that target........

Do you realize how foolish this sounds?

Rivers is a great QB. He doesn't "lock in" on his first or second read, he throws to the first open player in his progression.

Of course, Green was often a 4th read on the play... he was the backup TE. How often would you expect him to be a first or second read in a 3 WR offense with Gates and Woodhead also running a high number of routes?

If the "tape" showed that Green was running wide open frequently and not getting the ball, why wasn't there a stronger market for him? Do you think you have seen stuff on tape that NFL teams have not? Come on, man.

PFF graded 120 TEs last season. Green graded out as their #21 TE in receiving. Good, but not great. (By the way, ASJ was #12.) Did they miss all those times Green was running open and didn't get the ball?

 

[Milkman]

Green started 4 games last season that Gates did not play: weeks 1, 2, 4, and 7. He had 18/219/3 on 27 targets in those games. That projects to 72/876/12 on 104 targets if scaled to 16 games. Not sure why your numbers are different.The only other game in Green's career that Gates did not play was game 2 of 2012. Green had 1/31/0 on 1 target in that game, but it was only the second game of his career.

There are problems with scaling up from small sample sizes. For example, in those 4 games in 2015, Green faced defenses that ranked #29, #6, #14, and #30 in fantasy points allowed to TEs. In a 16 game season as a starter, he will likely face a harder schedule overall. Another issue is how likely he is to actually play 16 games. He has done that once in his career, in 2013, but his snap count was a lot lower then than it will be now.

Do you realize how foolish this sounds?

Rivers is a great QB. He doesn't "lock in" on his first or second read, he throws to the first open player in his progression.

Of course, Green was often a 4th read on the play... he was the backup TE. How often would you expect him to be a first or second read in a 3 WR offense with Gates and Woodhead also running a high number of routes?

If the "tape" showed that Green was running wide open frequently and not getting the ball, why wasn't there a stronger market for him? Do you think you have seen stuff on tape that NFL teams have not? Come on, man.

I think Rivers does lock in a lot pre snap. I've felt that for a while. I have seen Green running wide open a ton in the tape I've seen. It's not just one game here or there either. He's never targeted because he's the 4th read and Rivers will force it into a double covered Gates before he will look at his 4th read. At least it seems that way.  

The market for Green did not seem strong but that has more to do with his concussion problems. He could be out of the league soon. 

We'll see this year I guess. Big Ben>Rivers. No excuses from me if he doesn't reach strong TE1 production. 

 

[PRAE]

I agree...great discussion.  With that said, I am surprised at how lop-sided the poll is so far.  Both guys seems to be ranked fairly high in most dynasty rankings...  

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice post with a ton of interesting info JWB.  It makes me want to look into getting more Jesse James stock.

When you look into it I think you will find James was not good last year or as a  receiving TE prospect. I think his role is more as a blocker than a receiving option.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is a good question and I could see myself going either way.

I think ASJ is a better blocker than Green while also being a good receiving threat. If both players are healthy I think ASJ does more for a team than Green does.

Last season ASJ only played on 20% of the offensive snaps. Here are his game logs.

He began the season with a great game of 100 yards and 2 TD. It looks like he gets hurt in week 2. When he comes back in game 12 of the season he averages 5.8 targets per game over the last 5 games.

If you want a healthier player I would say Green. If you want a player with more upside when they are healthy, I would take ASJ.

 

[spider321]

I have watched every snap of Green's career.

Would it be easier to just make this your sig; instead of having to type "I have watched every snap of x's career", every time you post?

 

[Milkman]

Would it be easier to just make this your sig, instead of having to type "I have watched every snap of x's career", every time you post?

I think JWB is a great poster and him being so down on Green gives me pause but I don't know how he can say he's watched every snap of greens career and not notice he's open a "ton" and not targeted when he's asked to run routes. I seriously don't.

 

[Tau837]

Would it be easier to just make this your sig; instead of having to type "I have watched every snap of x's career", every time you post?

Some people may value my post differently about Green or other Chargers if they know I am a Chargers fan who watches all the games and follows the team closely. Others like you don't care, and that's fine. Kind of a bizarre thing to criticize me about IMO. If you don't want to read my posts, don't. No one is forcing you.

 

[spider321]

Some people may value my post about Green or other Chargers if they know I am a Chargers fan who watches all the games and follows the team closely. Others like you don't care, and that's fine. Kind of a bizarre thing to criticize me about IMO. If you don't want to read my posts, don't. No one is forcing you.

Yes, I know you think it adds gravity to your posts, but imho, the whole "I have watched every game" thing gets annoying after a while.

But hey, if it gets more people to pay attention to your opinions, maybe I'll start using it too.

 

[Dezbelief]

This is a good question and I could see myself going either way.

I think ASJ is a better blocker than Green while also being a good receiving threat. If both players are healthy I think ASJ does more for a team than Green does.

Last season ASJ only played on 20% of the offensive snaps. Here are his game logs.

He began the season with a great game of 100 yards and 2 TD. It looks like he gets hurt in week 2. When he comes back in game 12 of the season he averages 5.8 targets per game over the last 5 games.

If you want a healthier player I would say Green. If you want a player with more upside when they are healthy, I would take ASJ.

FYI
 
Ladarius Green underwent offseason ankle surgery and won't participate in OTAs.
Green ended last season on I.R. with an ankle injury that apparently required some sort of operation/clean-up procedure, which is believed to have happened in January, according to Chargers beat writer Michael Gehlken. He hasn't participated in offseason workouts and is without a timetable for return, though it's likely the Steelers are just being cautious. Obviously, the Steelers felt comfortable enough with Green's ankle to give him a four-year, $20 million contract. Green's recovery is worth monitoring, but we tentatively expect him back for camp. May 25 - 1:16 PM

Source: ESPN.com

 

[BigTex]

Nice post with a ton of interesting info JWB.  It makes me want to look into getting more Jesse James stock.

I actually sold JJ to the Green owner and got Fleener in return. Not sure how this is going to turn out but it should be a win win for both of us.

Tex

 

[Biabreakable]

FYI
 
Ladarius Green underwent offseason ankle surgery and won't participate in OTAs.
Green ended last season on I.R. with an ankle injury that apparently required some sort of operation/clean-up procedure, which is believed to have happened in January, according to Chargers beat writer Michael Gehlken. He hasn't participated in offseason workouts and is without a timetable for return, though it's likely the Steelers are just being cautious. Obviously, the Steelers felt comfortable enough with Green's ankle to give him a four-year, $20 million contract. Green's recovery is worth monitoring, but we tentatively expect him back for camp. May 25 - 1:16 PM

Source: ESPN.com

He isn't a player I have followed very closely because he has pretty much been overpriced so I never have him on my team.

What is the rest of his injury history like?

I noted that Green played on 56.7% of SD snaps last season 665 compared to ASJ's 218. So Green had about 3 times as many plays where he was on the field.

Green had 63 targets last season. This is 1 target every 10 snaps. ASJ 39 targets on 218 snaps is 18% so 1 target every 6 snaps he played.

 

[WheelsUp]

Why is there so much ASJ love? Why are people hating on Ebron Comparatively?
ASJ has been hurt more than he has played, but Ebron is the bust? Green has been hyped year after year after year, to the tune of under performing year after year after year but now he will do differently this year just because he is on another team? So out of the two, I like Green because its what the coin said. But hating on Ebron as if he is any more of a bust than these guys is not even fair.

ASJ has only caught more than 5 balls twice in his career, TWICE and has broken 50 yards 3 times, yes just THREE times! Tell me about these flashes you have seen. Ebron has been on par or better than that and has not been as hurt, but he is the bust? ASJ had a good Wk 1 in 2015, I think people remember that too much.

Do not throw reason out the window to fit your story line just because you own one of these guys and you are trying to convince yourself. Fortunately I own Gronk and Julius so TE is not my worry.

 

[Baeddel Moon]

I think Ladarius Green is likely to have the bigger season. That being said, where I was previously bullish on him, the multiple concussions last season drop him a tier or two in my positional rankings in a dynasty sense. I do feel he would have got more time last year without missing those early snaps, but by the end of the year his absence in a near weaponless offense becomes hard to understand. (From what I've read, he was often used to block while Gates would run a route in the Two TE sets) Whereas with ASJ, I don't think we'll ever see more than flashes. Now, those flashes might present a nicer window to sell but for a contender I'd want Green. 

 

[georg013]

Why is there so much ASJ love? Why are people hating on Ebron Comparatively?
ASJ has been hurt more than he has played, but Ebron is the bust? Green has been hyped year after year after year, to the tune of under performing year after year after year but now he will do differently this year just because he is on another team? So out of the two, I like Green because its what the coin said. But hating on Ebron as if he is any more of a bust than these guys is not even fair.

ASJ has only caught more than 5 balls twice in his career, TWICE and has broken 50 yards 3 times, yes just THREE times! Tell me about these flashes you have seen. Ebron has been on par or better than that and has not been as hurt, but he is the bust? ASJ had a good Wk 1 in 2015, I think people remember that too much.

Do not throw reason out the window to fit your story line just because you own one of these guys and you are trying to convince yourself. Fortunately I own Gronk and Julius so TE is not my worry.

 

Thank you for this. ASJ seemingly gets a free pass while Ebron gets picked apart. ASJ has done NOTHING to date. NOTHING, well, except spend time on the trainers table. I suppose that is better than doubling your receptions and yardage while catching 4 more touchdwons than the previous year. Who knows what COULD have been with ASJ, right? Laughable. Seems we have people who take greater pride in backing their guy and being right than painting an accurate picture. It's all good. Gotta find a way to shine somewhere...why not the shark pool? Lol. For what it is worth, I dont own Ebron anywhere.

 

[Otis]

Been waiting on Green for too many years now, after waiting on Jermichael Finley for too many years. It's now or never. 

 

[Arodin]

Thank you for this. ASJ seemingly gets a free pass while Ebron gets picked apart. ASJ has done NOTHING to date. NOTHING, well, except spend time on the trainers table. I suppose that is better than doubling your receptions and yardage while catching 4 more touchdwons than the previous year. Who knows what COULD have been with ASJ, right? Laughable. Seems we have people who take greater pride in backing their guy and being right than painting an accurate picture. It's all good. Gotta find a way to shine somewhere...why not the shark pool? Lol. For what it is worth, I dont own Ebron anywhere.

Depends...if you think ASJ is injury prone then yeah, he's way behind Ebron. 

If you compare rate stats though:

ASJ 2015:  3rec, 48yds, 0.6TD per game.
Ebron 2015:  3.4rec, 38yds, 0.4TD per game.

ASJ 2014:  2.3, 25, 0.2
Ebron 2014:  1.9, 19, 0.1

I can see why folks might prefer ASJ going forward, provided both remain healthy. 

(TB seems to be an offense on the rise as well, whereas the Detroit offense is in flux, but that's more a short-term issue than a dynasty one.)

 

[Dezbelief]

He isn't a player I have followed very closely because he has pretty much been overpriced so I never have him on my team.

What is the rest of his injury history like?

I noted that Green played on 56.7% of SD snaps last season 665 compared to ASJ's 218. So Green had about 3 times as many plays where he was on the field.

Green had 63 targets last season. This is 1 target every 10 snaps. ASJ 39 targets on 218 snaps is 18% so 1 target every 6 snaps he played.

There are also concussion concerns, one in Dec 2014 and a couple early in the 2015 season.

 

[Dezbelief]

I see both guys (ASJ and Green) as sells, the expectation of what they could be will exceed their actual performance.

I can see the argument for ASJ but I don't believe. With Green there is little to suggest that a TE in Pittsburgh or in a Haley offense will be a viable starter. I would rather have Fleener or Ebron on my roster.

 

[LBH]

With Green there is little to suggest that a TE in Pittsburgh or in a Haley offense will be a viable starter. 

What makes you say that? 

 

[Dezbelief]

What makes you say that? 

Fantasy production for TEs under Haley has been run of the mill and I have seen nothing to suggest that will change this year.

 

[LBH]

Fantasy production for TEs under Haley has been run of the mill and I have seen nothing to suggest that will change this year.

The Numbers: Todd Haley and the Offense

The most important part of this equation might be offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Since he took over the offense in 2012, the Steelers identity has taken a complete transformation. They went from a ground-and-pound offense to an offense that relies heavily on the passing game. 

Since 2012, the passing offense has finished 14th, 12th, 2nd and then 4th in 2015. The Steelers had never had a passing offense finish inside the top-nine in Ben Roethlisberger’s career before 2014. Since then, they finished inside the top-five, twice.

Since 2012, Ben Roethlisberger passing attempts per game has increased from 34.5, 36.5, 38.0 and 39.1 in 2015. In fact, in each of the last four seasons Big Ben has set a new career high in passing attempts per game every season. 

If Big Ben throws the ball on average 39 times per game in 2016 and Green can see just seven targets per game (18% of the passing attempts) that would give him 112 for the season. To give you an idea, Rob Gronkowski, the #1 Fantasy Football Tight End in 2015, Saw 120 targets last season. 

The Numbers: Haley and Heath Miller

Since 2012, tight end Heath Miller averaged 64 receptions, 676 receiving yards, 3.5 touchdowns in the Steelers offense under Todd Haley. The previous seven seasons, he averaged 48 receptions, 552 yards and 4.4 touchdowns. 

Since 2012, Miller averaged 87 targets a season. The previous seven years, he averaged 68 targets a season. 

In Miller’s first season with Haley in 2012, he set career highs in receiving yards (812), receiving touchdowns (8) and targets (101). 

In 2015, Miller was thrown at 81 times in 15 games – 5.4 targets per game. Even though that does not look like a lot, consider this: Cincinnati’s Tyler Eifert who finished sixth among tight ends in standard scoring fantasy football averaged 5.7 targets per game. 

Kansas City’s Travis Kelce, who finished seventh among tight ends in standard scoring fantasy football, averaged 6.4 targets per game. 

Look for that targets per game number to rise with Green as the new starter.

http://nflspinzone.com/2016/05/27/fantasy-football-steelers-ladarius-green-ready-shine/

 

[Dezbelief]

PPR, no bonuses

2015 Heath Miller #16 TE overall, 22nd PPG

2014 Heath Miller #11 TE, 11th PPG

2013 Heath Miller #16 TE, 21st PPG

2012 Heath Miller #4 TE, 5th PPG 

2009-2011 Haley KCC, HC

2011 Leonard Pope #41 TE, 42nd PPG

2010 Tony Moeaki #17 TE, 20th PPG

2009 Leonard Pope #41 TE, 43rd PPG

2007,2008 Haley ARI, OC

2008 ARI top TE outside of top 50 TEs

2007 Leonard Pope #25 TE, #25 PPG

 

[Dezbelief]

Add in health concerns, Green not yet able to practice and the fact Green may or may not be the #1 TE for Haley in 2016; I'm selling while the perceived value is high.

 

[jtd13]

Add in health concerns, Green not yet able to practice and the fact Green may or may not be the #1 TE for Haley in 2016; I'm selling while the perceived value is high.

I don't know about this. James is going to start over him? I haven't seen anything apart from your post suggesting that's a possibility.

Athletically and in playing style, I think Green is closer to Martavis than Heath Miller or Leonard Pope, so I'm not using those types of TEs as a basis for how he will be used.