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Assessing the starting RB situations on all 32 teams (1 Viewer)

Long Ball Larry

Footballguy
If there is a better thread that already exists for this, please let me know. I am trying to break down the starting RB situations on each team in order to get a good sense of the true opportunities that each guy will get and to determine the rough probability of a high amount of playing time/opportunity to achieve his ceiling.

Below I have broken them into 5 categories (ordering within categories is random), in order of their probability of impact (though the second and third categories could possibly be flipped).

The first is guys who I would say are firmly entrenched as the number 1 back and have proven results with their current team (even if only for 1 year.

The second is guys who appear to be the starter for the first team and/or with a new team.

The third is guys who are clearly starter and have been with their teams and shown results in the past, but who I have concerns about due to injury, age, or additional competition.

The fourth and fifth categories are perhaps the most important ones to watch over the next month. They are teams where there is no true starter and a lot of different guys are in the mix. I separated it out a bit in order to try to get identify the guys with the most upside, but there can be plenty of debate, I'm sure.

Let's hear your thoughts on any of the players and teams and how stable you think the different situations are.

SOLID NUMBER 1
Spiller (BUF)
Charles (KC)
Foster (HOU)
Rice (BAL)
Peterson (MIN)
McCoy (PHI)
T. Richardson (CLE)
Martin (TB)
Lynch (SEA)
Morris (WSH)
Forte (CHI)

NEW NUMBER 1
Jackson (ATL)

Wilson (NYG)
Ivory (NYJ)
Miller (MIA)

QUESTIONABLE NUMBER 1
Jones-Drew (JAX)

Murray (DAL)
McFadden (OAK)
Johnson (TEN)
Matthews (SD)
Ridley (NE)
Gore (SF)

SHRUG With a Leader
L. Bell? (PIT)
Bernard? (CIN)
Lacy? (GB)
Moreno? (DEN)
Bush? (DET)

SHRUG
Cardinals (AZ)
Saints (NO)
Rams (STL)
Panthers (CAR)
Colts (IND)
edit: formatting, oof.

 
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I question your listing of Moreno in Denver as the leader, seeing as Hillman has been getting the majority of 1st team reps and is currently #1 on the depth chart, and Bell is seen as the heir apparent to the #1 spot.

 
How is DMC the questionable #1? What's the question? Same can be said for Chris Johnson.

 
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How is DMC the questionable #1? What's the question? Same can be said for Chris Johnson.
Apparently you didn't read the OP?

The third is guys who are clearly starter and have been with their teams and shown results in the past, but who I have concerns about due to injury, age, or additional competition.
Not guys whose listing as #1 back is questionable, but #1 guys who have questions about them.

 
How is DMC the questionable #1? What's the question? Same can be said for Chris Johnson.
Apparently you didn't read the OP?

The third is guys who are clearly starter and have been with their teams and shown results in the past, but who I have concerns about due to injury, age, or additional competition.
Not guys whose listing as #1 back is questionable, but #1 guys who have questions about them.
You're right, I didn't fully read. My apologies.

 
I question your listing of Moreno in Denver as the leader, seeing as Hillman has been getting the majority of 1st team reps and is currently #1 on the depth chart, and Bell is seen as the heir apparent to the #1 spot.
Yeah, that is a tough one. I guess I am putting him as the leader because of what I read about his pass protection skills and the fact that he did actually get the job done last year (as opposed to Hillman). So he seems like the best bet in terms of production and opportunity. But it is certainly shaky.

 
How is DMC the questionable #1? What's the question? Same can be said for Chris Johnson.
Apparently you didn't read the OP?

The third is guys who are clearly starter and have been with their teams and shown results in the past, but who I have concerns about due to injury, age, or additional competition.
Not guys whose listing as #1 back is questionable, but #1 guys who have questions about them.
You're right, I didn't fully read. My apologies.
Maybe I should have been clearer. Like I said, I'm mainly trying to get a good handle on the expectations for each player. We know that McFadden and CJ can have 1,200-1,500 yard seasons with double-digit touchdowns, but the likelihood of them achieving that is what, like 50% (maybe higher for CJ and lower for McFadden).

Conversely, someone like Foster has like a 90% chance of hitting those marks.

 
Rice should be in group 3, not group 1. Pierce is looking like a big threat.
Why is Ridley in the questionable category?
You can argue that Rice may not be worth a top 5 pick but this isn't turning into a 50/50 timeshare. Even if Pierce starts getting 8-11 carries a game Rice is still going to see 30ish touches. With a team as depleted in receiving threats, this offense is going to flow through Rice.

Everyone kept saying Vereen was going to take the job away from Ridley all last season and Ridley finished with 7th in yardage on the ground. I don't know why people don't see it but as long as Ridley stays productive the Pats braintrust is going to keep him very involved.

In general I don't get the point of a thread like this. Is it necessary to force backs like MJD, CJ and Gore into a singular categories when they have rather dissimilar situations?

 
I don't need to force people into categories, and I'm happy to get more info and nuance about all of them.

What I am really trying to get a better handle on is the risk/reward for the starting running backs. Obviously there are no guarantees, but I want my top 2 picks to be as safe as possible (though they may not be RB, ultimately). So I want to determine which players to target in the first 2 rounds (as well as finding RB's in the middle rounds with the most upside). In rounds 3-6 (or so), there may be guys with flaws, but who are worth the risk at the point.

To me, MJD, CJ and Gore all have more risk than the top 12 guys I listed, and are guys that I think I would avoid in the first 2 rounds, however, I could certainly be wrong and I would be happy to learn why.

 
Locked in number ones:

Peterson (MIN) - Duh

Foster (HOU) - Gets rushing, receptions and TDs.

Martin (TB) - See Foster

Probably studs:

T. Richardson (CLE) - Health is an issue.

Charles (KC) - Could be a better version of Westbrook and McCoy

Morris (WSH) - Blah blah blah. Shanahanigans are always a risk.

Spiller (BUF) - Lots of upside, but haven't seen full season stud RB numbers

Lynch (SEA) - With two stud backups behind him, a bruise will earn him some time in the tub.

Reliable starter with really good upside:

Rice (BAL) - Touches may drop, but still gets rushing, receiving and TDs

McCoy (PHI) - Changing systems is a little scary

Forte (CHI) - With his receptions likely to go up, he could be a stud again. But let's see it first.

Jackson (ATL) - Relatively safe pick as RB2, but with upside to be dominant. Unlikely to get 300 carries though.

Bush (DET) - 300+ touches, over 5 yards per touch, and double digit TDs are a possibility if healthy.

RB1 with injury risk:

McFadden (OAK) - Fragile Freddy eventually became a dependable RB1. Can McFadden?

Jones-Drew (JAX) - Pocket hercules plus contract year minus Lis Franc minus sucky team

Murray (DAL) - Dez and a healthy Austin should open up room for Murray if he can stay healthy.

Dependable, but limited upside

Johnson (TEN) - Love the O line moves. Not that many goal line carries to lose in Tennessee. Lots of total yards and receptions.

Ridley (NE) - Ridley has a great opportunity to put up big numbers, but not enough receptions to be a true stud RB1.

Sproles (NWO) - Good fantasy numbers, but not much room to improve to stud RB1 status. Has more upside in full PPR.

Lower upside, less risk:

L. Bell (PIT) - Same as Ridley, but opportunity is nowhere near as good.

Mendenhall (AZ) - Potential for lots of carries and touchdowns, but YPC and receptions are questionable.

Vereen - Pats want him to be their move guy now that Hernandez is gone. Should get quality PPR numbers, but hard to picture RB1 numbers without an injury to Ridley.

Higher upside, more risk:

Miller (MIA) - Total wildcard. Don't even know if he has the starting job.

Wilson (NYG) - Speed? Check. Moves? Check. Everything else? Dunno.

Ball (DEN) - TD scoring machine who can block and catch. Even if it's RBBC, he's getting the most valuable touches.

Bradshaw (IND) - He's still in a walking boot, and if healthy, he may end up sharing carries with Ballard anyways, but a stud RB on an emerging top offense has big upside.

Williams (CAR) - If Stewart misses serious time, he is the complete package as a fantasy RB.

Pead/Stacy/Richardson (STL) - All of these guys are lottery tickets at this point. Cheap with decent enough upside.

Hard to win a league relying on these guys

Ivory (NYJ) - Health risk? Check. Team sucks? Check. But who the hell else are the Jets going to play?

Matthews (SD) - Has looked really good at times. None of those times were in 2012. Not many in training camp 2013 either.

Gore (SF) - Hasn't put together a dominant end-to-end season in ages, but he can still put up stretches. If you draft him, consider trading him when he inevitably gets hot.

Bernard (CIN) - Cinci said they wanted someone to complement BJGE. Then they drafted Bernard, who is everything they said they wanted. Seems likely to get decent yards and a couple TDs, but his upside is limited for 2013.

Lacy/Franklin (GB) - IF one of them emerges as the lead back, this is still the Aaron Rodgers show.

Ballard (IND) - He's serviceable, but won't win you a league.

Moreno/Hillman (DEN) - The Denver back should get a load of TDs in that offense. But most of them will go to Ball. Why would you want the other guys?

 
Long Ball Larry said:
To me, MJD, CJ and Gore all have more risk than the top 12 guys I listed, and are guys that I think I would avoid in the first 2 rounds, however, I could certainly be wrong and I would be happy to learn why.
What is the risk you see with Gore?

 
Avoid GB.

Not because I don't think they will have productive games. I just don't think you will be able to predict which back is going to step up which game.

I fully believe McCarthy will have game plans that feature multiple backs...and if one gets hot he will stick with him for that game. But I don't think it carries over much into the next.

The caveat to that is if Lacy takes off with it from day one of preseason and looks like a stud. Or injuries...or other major issues (fumbles and blown blitz pickups will land a player in McCarthy's doghouse quick).

Basically full blown RBBC with up to 3 (maybe 4) backs getting touches at different times.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
To me, MJD, CJ and Gore all have more risk than the top 12 guys I listed, and are guys that I think I would avoid in the first 2 rounds, however, I could certainly be wrong and I would be happy to learn why.
What is the risk you see with Gore?
I think age, combined with the potential emergence of Kendall Hunter. Although he has been consistent, though not spectacular, over the past 6 years (save 2010), so he may be a guy that is a little overlooked. Not as an RB1, but perhaps a very solid RB2.

 
Gore (SF) - Hasn't put together a dominant end-to-end season in ages, but he can still put up stretches. If you draft him, consider trading him when he inevitably gets hot.
While it might not be considered dominant - Gore put up good numbers last year and has a much higher floor than the guys you group him with.

Last year he finished as RB 11 - the year before as RB 12.

If you're drafting him to be dominant - sure you'll be disappointed. Most of the RBs in the league won't be dominant. But he has been a consistent low end RB1 for the past two seasons which seems to be good to expected value for his ADP.

Age is always a concern - but nothing else about his situation worries me.

Last year he was healthy for the entire season - had 1400+ YFS and 9 TDs. 4.7 y/a rushing.

In the playoffs he rushed for 119 + 1, 90 + 2, 110 + 1 -- with a 5.1 y/a

In 2011 he had 1300 yfs and 8 TDs with 4.3 y/a

While Kendell Hunter and Lamichael James will get carries - the 49ers are fun run first and run often enough - that Gore will still be used a lot. Seems like the younger guys are taking enough carries to help keep Gore fresh and healthy.

based on his 4.7 y/a for the season and 5.1 in the playoffs - I still think he has a year left for useful fantasy numbers. Next year with Lattimore being healthy - the younger guys will probably take over. For a redraft league - especially non-ppr - he seems to have a great floor.

 
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Bush is the clear #1 RB in Detroit. What about that situation confuses you and causes a shrug?

 
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Long Ball Larry said:
To me, MJD, CJ and Gore all have more risk than the top 12 guys I listed, and are guys that I think I would avoid in the first 2 rounds, however, I could certainly be wrong and I would be happy to learn why.
What is the risk you see with Gore?
I think age, combined with the potential emergence of Kendall Hunter. Although he has been consistent, though not spectacular, over the past 6 years (save 2010), so he may be a guy that is a little overlooked. Not as an RB1, but perhaps a very solid RB2.
Hunter's coming off of serious injury so he's even less of a threat than he was last year. Lattimore might not play this year. LaMichael James is a different style of runner. I see nothing that takes away from Gore's carries.

I agree that he hasn't been spectacular - but you can fit that label on most of the RBs in the league. It's sort of like saying - so-and-so's a solid golfer, but he rarely gets a hole in one.

 
Bush is the clear #1 RB in Detroit. What about that situation confuses you and causes a shrug?
Is he? or is he a 3rd down receiving back?
Yeah, I guess I would think that LeShoure is still well in the mix, but I could be wrong. These are the types of things that I am trying to figure out.
Joique Bell may have passed him for the #2 job. But the #1 job is Bush's, and nobody I've heard talking about this from the Detroit coaching staff or the national press feels otherwise.
 
Why is Ridley in the questionable category?
Maybe because of this.

Training camp stock report: Stevan Ridley's fumbles in focus

FOXBOROUGH -- The Patriots put on the pads for the first time in training camp on Sunday. With three practices in the books and the team's first padded practice, let's take a look at which players are trending up and which players are struggling.

Stock up:

Kamar Aiken: It's been a strong few days of practice for Aiken. He made a couple of impressive catches in the first two practices, including a leaping catch over cornerback Logan Ryan on the sideline. His impressive performance continued, and he showed an impressive release off the line of scrimmage in press coverage drills. Read more about Aiken's impressive start to camp.

Marcus Cannon: Took a majority of his reps with the first-team offensive line at right guard. On a few occasions, Cannon pancaked his assignment, and went 1-1-1 in one-on-one pass-rush drills, going against mostly the first-string defenders.

Chandler Jones: Forced a fumble of Stevan Ridley, with a little help from Vince Wilfork. Jones continues to move around the defense as they run multiple looks out of three- and four-man lines. His added strength from the offseason is noticeable.

"As you study more, learn more, different techniques, train, you’re able to utilize your strengths more effectively in time than you were before you did all that," Bill Belichick said, in response to the progress Jones has made from his first to his second year. "I think he’s in that process."

Stock down:

Stevan Ridley: Two fumbles for the lead back in the stable, including one on the goal line toward the end of practice. Ball security has been an issue for Ridley in the past, and today's practice was not a step in the right direction.

Joe Vellano: Registered a record of 0-4-0 in one-on-one blocker vs. rusher drills. Outside of the usual suspects (Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Rob Ninkovich etc.), no one on the defensive line has truly distinguished themselves as a front-runner for a job.

Aaron Dobson: After a strong showing in the first two days of camp, Dobson came back down to Earth a bit today. He showed the ability to get off jams at the the line of scrimmage in some drills, but he dropped a couple of catchable balls. Hiccups like today are expected for a rookie.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4745754/big-takeaway-ridleys-ball-security

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The Patriots were in full pads for the first time on Sunday, and the team worked on goal-line running at the end of the practice.

One play stood out -- a fumble by running back Stevan Ridley that was scooped up by Vince Wilfork, who rumbled down the field to the applause of fans.

It was the second time in practice that a running play involving Ridley led to a football on the ground, as earlier in the session Ridley never fully gathered in a handoff and the ball popped into the air, recovered by the defense.

After each fumble, Ridley was told to run to the other end of the field as a form of punishment.

It makes little sense to blow one training camp practice out of proportion, especially on wet fields, but Ridley's ball security still figured to be at the top of the coaching staff's list of areas to address. Ridley's ball security was an issue at times last season, as he fumbled three times in a span of two December games.

Ridley projects as the Patriots' lead back in 2013, as he was last season when he played almost 45 percent of the offensive snaps. But if there is one thing that could change plans, it's ball-security issues.

Four-year veteran LeGarrette Blount has also been getting some early work in camp and he was 2 for 2 in the goal-line running drill. Ridley was 1-for-2 on the goal-line, scoring on his other rushing attempt.

Second-year back Brandon Bolden is also in the running back mix (he didn't participate in the goal-line running drill), while Shane Vereen and Leon Washington project more to the "passing back" role.

The Patriots worked quite a bit on the screen game in practice Sunday, with Vereen catching quite a few passes.

But if there was one thing that stood out with the running backs, it was Ridley's ball security.

 
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Rice should be in group 3, not group 1. Pierce is looking like a big threat.
You can argue that Rice may not be worth a top 5 pick but this isn't turning into a 50/50 timeshare. Even if Pierce starts getting 8-11 carries a game Rice is still going to see 30ish touches. With a team as depleted in receiving threats, this offense is going to flow through Rice.
Rice has averaged 347 touches (rush+rec) since he has been the starter in Baltimore. That's a far cry from the "30ish touches" you think he is bound to see. If he goes into a 60/40 split, that would probably mean closer to 300 total touches, rather than 350. Rice has averaged .91 FP (PPR scoring) per touch since he's been starter. If he loses 50 touches, that's almost 46 points. That would have dropped him from a top-5 RB last year to out of the top-10.

 
Bush is the clear #1 RB in Detroit. What about that situation confuses you and causes a shrug?
Is he? or is he a 3rd down receiving back?
Yeah, I guess I would think that LeShoure is still well in the mix, but I could be wrong. These are the types of things that I am trying to figure out.
I don't think this is anything like a RBBC. Leshoure/Bell will get touches but I don't think it shouldhave any effect on Reggie's numbers. Leshoure might be the obvious choice at the goaline, given his size, because they would likely rather see him in the scrum situations at the goaline.

 
Why is Ridley in the questionable category?
Maybe because of this.

Training camp stock report: Stevan Ridley's fumbles in focus

FOXBOROUGH -- The Patriots put on the pads for the first time in training camp on Sunday. With three practices in the books and the team's first padded practice, let's take a look at which players are trending up and which players are struggling.

Stock up:

Kamar Aiken: It's been a strong few days of practice for Aiken. He made a couple of impressive catches in the first two practices, including a leaping catch over cornerback Logan Ryan on the sideline. His impressive performance continued, and he showed an impressive release off the line of scrimmage in press coverage drills. Read more about Aiken's impressive start to camp.

Marcus Cannon: Took a majority of his reps with the first-team offensive line at right guard. On a few occasions, Cannon pancaked his assignment, and went 1-1-1 in one-on-one pass-rush drills, going against mostly the first-string defenders.

Chandler Jones: Forced a fumble of Stevan Ridley, with a little help from Vince Wilfork. Jones continues to move around the defense as they run multiple looks out of three- and four-man lines. His added strength from the offseason is noticeable.

"As you study more, learn more, different techniques, train, you’re able to utilize your strengths more effectively in time than you were before you did all that," Bill Belichick said, in response to the progress Jones has made from his first to his second year. "I think he’s in that process."

Stock down:

Stevan Ridley: Two fumbles for the lead back in the stable, including one on the goal line toward the end of practice. Ball security has been an issue for Ridley in the past, and today's practice was not a step in the right direction.

Joe Vellano: Registered a record of 0-4-0 in one-on-one blocker vs. rusher drills. Outside of the usual suspects (Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly, Rob Ninkovich etc.), no one on the defensive line has truly distinguished themselves as a front-runner for a job.

Aaron Dobson: After a strong showing in the first two days of camp, Dobson came back down to Earth a bit today. He showed the ability to get off jams at the the line of scrimmage in some drills, but he dropped a couple of catchable balls. Hiccups like today are expected for a rookie.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4745754/big-takeaway-ridleys-ball-security

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The Patriots were in full pads for the first time on Sunday, and the team worked on goal-line running at the end of the practice.

One play stood out -- a fumble by running back Stevan Ridley that was scooped up by Vince Wilfork, who rumbled down the field to the applause of fans.

It was the second time in practice that a running play involving Ridley led to a football on the ground, as earlier in the session Ridley never fully gathered in a handoff and the ball popped into the air, recovered by the defense.

After each fumble, Ridley was told to run to the other end of the field as a form of punishment.

It makes little sense to blow one training camp practice out of proportion, especially on wet fields, but Ridley's ball security still figured to be at the top of the coaching staff's list of areas to address. Ridley's ball security was an issue at times last season, as he fumbled three times in a span of two December games.

Ridley projects as the Patriots' lead back in 2013, as he was last season when he played almost 45 percent of the offensive snaps. But if there is one thing that could change plans, it's ball-security issues.

Four-year veteran LeGarrette Blount has also been getting some early work in camp and he was 2 for 2 in the goal-line running drill. Ridley was 1-for-2 on the goal-line, scoring on his other rushing attempt.

Second-year back Brandon Bolden is also in the running back mix (he didn't participate in the goal-line running drill), while Shane Vereen and Leon Washington project more to the "passing back" role.

The Patriots worked quite a bit on the screen game in practice Sunday, with Vereen catching quite a few passes.

But if there was one thing that stood out with the running backs, it was Ridley's ball security.
A guy fumbled in camp twice. Stop the presses

 
Gore (SF) - Hasn't put together a dominant end-to-end season in ages, but he can still put up stretches. If you draft him, consider trading him when he inevitably gets hot.
While it might not be considered dominant - Gore put up good numbers last year and has a much higher floor than the guys you group him with.

Last year he finished as RB 11 - the year before as RB 12.

If you're drafting him to be dominant - sure you'll be disappointed. Most of the RBs in the league won't be dominant. But he has been a consistent low end RB1 for the past two seasons which seems to be good to expected value for his ADP.

Age is always a concern - but nothing else about his situation worries me.

Last year he was healthy for the entire season - had 1400+ YFS and 9 TDs. 4.7 y/a rushing.

In the playoffs he rushed for 119 + 1, 90 + 2, 110 + 1 -- with a 5.1 y/a

In 2011 he had 1300 yfs and 8 TDs with 4.3 y/a

While Kendell Hunter and Lamichael James will get carries - the 49ers are fun run first and run often enough - that Gore will still be used a lot. Seems like the younger guys are taking enough carries to help keep Gore fresh and healthy.

based on his 4.7 y/a for the season and 5.1 in the playoffs - I still think he has a year left for useful fantasy numbers. Next year with Lattimore being healthy - the younger guys will probably take over. For a redraft league - especially non-ppr - he seems to have a great floor.
I agree with everything you said. The concern I have is this:2010 first 8 games: 4 100 yard rushing games, 691 rush yards, 4 TDs, 38 receptions, 347 yards

2010 last 8 games: 0 100 yard rushing games, 162 rush yards, 1 TD, 8 receptions, 104 yards (5 games missed)

2011 first 8 games: 5 100 yard rushing games, 782 rush yards, 5 TDs, 13 receptions, 78 yards

2011 last 8 games: 0 100 yard rushing games, 429 rush yards, 3 TDs, 4 receptions, 36 yards

2012 first 8 games: 3 100 yard rushing games, 656 rush yards, 4 TDs, 16 receptions, 131 yards

2012 last 8 games: 0 100 yard rushing games, 558 rush yards, 4 TDs, 12 receptions, 113 yards

He's a solid producer, but it's been a long time since he was fantasy relevant in the second half of the season or fantasy playoffs. To be fair, he did have a GREAT postseason run last year - 339 total yards and 5 total TDs in three playoff games. But the guy just turned 30, started getting more help from the youngsters, and the Kaepernick factor makes him a bit of a wild card. Maybe I should give him more credit - and I would certainly take him if he slides in drafts as much as he did last year - but right now he's not worth the risk at his ADP.

 
shader said:
Rice should be in group 3, not group 1. Pierce is looking like a big threat.
:lmao:
Came here for the same reason......Pierce appears to be a talent but lets not go crazy. Now that Pitta is down, Rice and his stellar receiving ability becomes even more important.
In PPR leagues, Rice is a stud. But in most other leagues, Rice is a tick down below the top guys. His carries dropped from 307 in 2010 and 291 in 2011 to 257 last year - that's a big drop. The offense has taken some serious hits this offseason, which could hurt his YPC. And his double digit TD scoring could also take a hit.Is Rice still a very good first round pick? Of course. But he may have taken a step back from the elite.

 
shader said:
Rice should be in group 3, not group 1. Pierce is looking like a big threat.
:lmao:
Came here for the same reason......Pierce appears to be a talent but lets not go crazy. Now that Pitta is down, Rice and his stellar receiving ability becomes even more important.
In PPR leagues, Rice is a stud. But in most other leagues, Rice is a tick down below the top guys. His carries dropped from 307 in 2010 and 291 in 2011 to 257 last year - that's a big drop. The offense has taken some serious hits this offseason, which could hurt his YPC. And his double digit TD scoring could also take a hit.Is Rice still a very good first round pick? Of course. But he may have taken a step back from the elite.
The fact of the matter is simple, Rice is openly saying he's going to be taking a lesser role in the ground game. Could he make up for that in the passing game? Sure, he's got the ability to do so. Still, he seems willing to accept that Pierce is going to have a larger role with the team this year. I'll believe Rice on this one rather than the Internet guys laughing about it.

 
Gore (SF) - Hasn't put together a dominant end-to-end season in ages, but he can still put up stretches. If you draft him, consider trading him when he inevitably gets hot.
While it might not be considered dominant - Gore put up good numbers last year and has a much higher floor than the guys you group him with.Last year he finished as RB 11 - the year before as RB 12.If you're drafting him to be dominant - sure you'll be disappointed. Most of the RBs in the league won't be dominant. But he has been a consistent low end RB1 for the past two seasons which seems to be good to expected value for his ADP. Age is always a concern - but nothing else about his situation worries me. Last year he was healthy for the entire season - had 1400+ YFS and 9 TDs. 4.7 y/a rushing.In the playoffs he rushed for 119 + 1, 90 + 2, 110 + 1 -- with a 5.1 y/a In 2011 he had 1300 yfs and 8 TDs with 4.3 y/a While Kendell Hunter and Lamichael James will get carries - the 49ers are fun run first and run often enough - that Gore will still be used a lot. Seems like the younger guys are taking enough carries to help keep Gore fresh and healthy. based on his 4.7 y/a for the season and 5.1 in the playoffs - I still think he has a year left for useful fantasy numbers. Next year with Lattimore being healthy - the younger guys will probably take over. For a redraft league - especially non-ppr - he seems to have a great floor.
I agree with everything you said. The concern I have is this:2010 first 8 games: 4 100 yard rushing games, 691 rush yards, 4 TDs, 38 receptions, 347 yards2010 last 8 games: 0 100 yard rushing games, 162 rush yards, 1 TD, 8 receptions, 104 yards (5 games missed)2011 first 8 games: 5 100 yard rushing games, 782 rush yards, 5 TDs, 13 receptions, 78 yards2011 last 8 games: 0 100 yard rushing games, 429 rush yards, 3 TDs, 4 receptions, 36 yards2012 first 8 games: 3 100 yard rushing games, 656 rush yards, 4 TDs, 16 receptions, 131 yards2012 last 8 games: 0 100 yard rushing games, 558 rush yards, 4 TDs, 12 receptions, 113 yardsHe's a solid producer, but it's been a long time since he was fantasy relevant in the second half of the season or fantasy playoffs. To be fair, he did have a GREAT postseason run last year - 339 total yards and 5 total TDs in three playoff games. But the guy just turned 30, started getting more help from the youngsters, and the Kaepernick factor makes him a bit of a wild card. Maybe I should give him more credit - and I would certainly take him if he slides in drafts as much as he did last year - but right now he's not worth the risk at his ADP.
Got sidetracked by other threads but just saw this. Mistake on my part to focus on the season stats instead of game logs. Thank for the info. I still have a feeling the guys in my league are going to undervalue him because of age - ill just need to make sure I don't over value him

 

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