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Assume Spiller to the 49ers (1 Viewer)

lynx4ben

Footballguy
How does this impact CJ's value?

Now I know there are people who don't like CJ and may not have them in your top 3. However, I believe that the majority of players right now have a top three of Spiller, Mathews, Dez; with Best and Dwyer close behind.

Since Spiller has been mocked to the 49ers multiple times and there are reports coming from San Fran themselves that they would like to add an explosive completment let's assume this plays out.

How does this impact Spiller's value playing second fiddle to gore? Does he automatically get bumped below Mathews/Dez if they fall to better situations (which I think they will)? Is Spiller all of the sudden in the next tier of rookies with Best and Dwyer? Futhermore if Best/Dwyer go somewhere nice do we drop Spiller farther?

How much of a chance does he have in San Fran? Gore has two fairly priced years left on his contract so he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Which makes you think he will be at best part of an RBBC with no goal line opportunities. Remember if you are going to draft based on talent it sure seems as if the NFL scouts believe he's the best talent at the position this year as evidenced by he will *probably* be the first RB off the board.

Spiller has been very hard for me to rank this year when it comes to the top rooks and how they will play out. These questions have me having a hard time devising a strategy to target top rookie picks or to trade them away.

Thoughts?

 
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If u are a firm believe in Spiller, don't think it changes much at all.

Didn't everyone overlook RRice cause of mcgahee and mclain?

Talent will rise, just might be a year later than others.

PPR, i think if you pass on Dez at #1, u are missing out. I would put Spiller/Mathews at 2a/2b, just not sure about spiller ever being a lead back and would rather have the back that can get you 20+ carries consistently.

 
I think that if they all go to their most favorable teams/situations, I think you fall back on talent, which I would use as a starting strategy rather than situation.

I have pick 1.02 in my upcoming rookie draft and the top of my list looks like Bryant, Spiller, Matthews. I hope that 1.01 takes Bryant because then I'd take Spiller, but if 1.01 takes Spiller, then I would have a hard time deciding between Bryant and Matthews because I don't like to risk a pick on a WR so high in the draft, and WR usually don't produce in their first year whereas RB do.

 
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller

 
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller
Otherwise do you have Spiller as the top talent? For me he's the biggest risk of the three. However, he also has the most elite skill set. A destination like the 49ers scare me as I'm wondering how many touches a game we can realistically expect.Let's say gore get's 15 carries a game leaving 8-10 for CJ and 3rd down work as well (assuming he can block at all). That doesn't equate to the type of production I want from a top 3 pick for two years. I'm wondering if we could see a CJ Spiller fall if this situation happens. Especially if the next tier of RBs land in better spots as well.
 
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J. Stewart is sitting behind a RB who finished RB1 in 2008 and was a top 5 RB until his injury in week 12 in 2009. DeAngelo is still likely not going anywhere.

Look at Stewart's value.

In other words, if you believe Spiller is truly the top talent in the draft and you believe he has elite upside, then you take him no matter where he ends up.

 
How much of a chance does he have in San Fran? Gore has two fairly priced years left on his contract so he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Which makes you think he will be at best part of an RBBC with no goal line opportunities. Remember if you are going to draft based on talent it sure seems as if the NFL scouts believe he's the best talent at the position this year as evidenced by he will *probably* be the first RB off the board.
Do the 49ers no longer think Glen Coffee is good enough to compliment Gore?
 
If you believe Spiller is the top talent, don't knock him down for the team.

Some people knocked LT or Deuce because of team or "better talented RB in front" and took Bennett instead.

Some people knocked Steven Jackson down because of "better talented RB in front", took Kevin or Julius Jones instead.

Some people knocked J-Stew and Mendenhall down because of "better talented RB in front" (although I'm not sure who they took)

Some people knocked Shaun Alexander because of "better talented RB in front"...

you get the point, don't repeat history.

That said, I'm not completely sold on Spiller so he's my 1.03 right now anyway.

and of course I don't draft Raiders.

 
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If u are a firm believe in Spiller, don't think it changes much at all.Didn't everyone overlook RRice cause of mcgahee and mclain?Talent will rise, just might be a year later than others.PPR, i think if you pass on Dez at #1, u are missing out. I would put Spiller/Mathews at 2a/2b, just not sure about spiller ever being a lead back and would rather have the back that can get you 20+ carries consistently.
:popcorn: Frank Gore is just a little bit better than McGahee/McClain....to answer the question, if Spiller goes to the 49ers then yes i would drop him down to the 4-7 range. i already suspect that Spiller will have more real-world football impact than fantasy impact, seeing as he's likely a COP running back who will contribute mostly on special teams.
 
J. Stewart is sitting behind a RB who finished RB1 in 2008 and was a top 5 RB until his injury in week 12 in 2009. DeAngelo is still likely not going anywhere.Look at Stewart's value.In other words, if you believe Spiller is truly the top talent in the draft and you believe he has elite upside, then you take him no matter where he ends up.
If San Fran took Spilleryou still have plenty of backfields waiting for running backsSan DiegoHoustonSeattleDetroitNew EnglandSo i think whoever landed in these situations would have a chance to excelSD gets MathewsHouston or New England gets DwyerSeattle gets DixonDetroit gets BestSt louis might get a RB to help out Jackson in later roundsGreen bay may go out and get someone to help GrantWashington may draft a rb behind their 2 old guysSo with that being saidIf Spiller goes to SFMathews goes to SDDwyer goes to New England the other rbs below have opportunities depending on where they landed:Hardesty, Best, Dixon, Gerhart, McKnight, McCluster, Starks, Ben Tate
 
I think that if they all go to their most favorable teams/situations, I think you fall back on talent, which I would use as a starting strategy rather than situation.

I have pick 1.02 in my upcoming rookie draft and the top of my list looks like Bryant, Spiller, Matthews. I hope that 1.01 takes Bryant because then I'd take Spiller, but if 1.01 takes Spiller, then I would have a hard time deciding between Bryant and Matthews because I don't like to risk a pick on a WR so high in the draft, and WR usually don't produce in their first year whereas RB do.
Never really thought much about it, but I'm not sure that really holds any more - DJax, Royal, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt... all seem to have produced as rookies.WRs who don't do a whole lot their rookie years are still valued pretty well the next year, RBs tend to fall if they don't produce quick. Not sure if future value means much, but it seems to be true.

 
If u are a firm believe in Spiller, don't think it changes much at all.

Didn't everyone overlook RRice cause of mcgahee and mclain?

Talent will rise, just might be a year later than others.

PPR, i think if you pass on Dez at #1, u are missing out. I would put Spiller/Mathews at 2a/2b, just not sure about spiller ever being a lead back and would rather have the back that can get you 20+ carries consistently.
:popcorn: Frank Gore is just a little bit better than McGahee/McClain....

to answer the question, if Spiller goes to the 49ers then yes i would drop him down to the 4-7 range. i already suspect that Spiller will have more real-world football impact than fantasy impact, seeing as he's likely a COP running back who will contribute mostly on special teams.
okay, but is he better than Ricky Williams, Ricky Watters, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes...I'd love to see him fall to 7, it won't happen.

 
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J. Stewart is sitting behind a RB who finished RB1 in 2008 and was a top 5 RB until his injury in week 12 in 2009. DeAngelo is still likely not going anywhere.Look at Stewart's value.In other words, if you believe Spiller is truly the top talent in the draft and you believe he has elite upside, then you take him no matter where he ends up.
If San Fran took Spilleryou still have plenty of backfields waiting for running backsSan DiegoHoustonSeattleDetroitNew EnglandSo i think whoever landed in these situations would have a chance to excelSD gets MathewsHouston or New England gets DwyerSeattle gets DixonDetroit gets BestSt louis might get a RB to help out Jackson in later roundsGreen bay may go out and get someone to help GrantWashington may draft a rb behind their 2 old guysSo with that being saidIf Spiller goes to SFMathews goes to SDDwyer goes to New England the other rbs below have opportunities depending on where they landed:Hardesty, Best, Dixon, Gerhart, McKnight, McCluster, Starks, Ben Tate
So? Forte had a chance to excel due to situation. He didn't because he's an average talent. Same for Lynch (whom some actually took over AP). Same for Slaton. Those guys may end up in better situations and put up better #"s in the short term, but the cream rises to the top.
 
J. Stewart is sitting behind a RB who finished RB1 in 2008 and was a top 5 RB until his injury in week 12 in 2009. DeAngelo is still likely not going anywhere.Look at Stewart's value.In other words, if you believe Spiller is truly the top talent in the draft and you believe he has elite upside, then you take him no matter where he ends up.
If San Fran took Spilleryou still have plenty of backfields waiting for running backsSan DiegoHoustonSeattleDetroitNew EnglandSo i think whoever landed in these situations would have a chance to excelSD gets MathewsHouston or New England gets DwyerSeattle gets DixonDetroit gets BestSt louis might get a RB to help out Jackson in later roundsGreen bay may go out and get someone to help GrantWashington may draft a rb behind their 2 old guysSo with that being saidIf Spiller goes to SFMathews goes to SDDwyer goes to New England the other rbs below have opportunities depending on where they landed:Hardesty, Best, Dixon, Gerhart, McKnight, McCluster, Starks, Ben Tate
So? Forte had a chance to excel due to situation. He didn't because he's an average talent. Same for Lynch (whom some actually took over AP). Same for Slaton. Those guys may end up in better situations and put up better #"s in the short term, but the cream rises to the top.
While I agree somewhat with your point (talent trumps opportunity), I do think you're overlooking a few things. 1) Forte produced his rookie year and due to a great situation, he helped fantasy owners do well, 2) because Forte had a great opportunity as a rookie, owners were able to sell him for a huge price in the offseason between years 1-2.
 
J. Stewart is sitting behind a RB who finished RB1 in 2008 and was a top 5 RB until his injury in week 12 in 2009. DeAngelo is still likely not going anywhere.Look at Stewart's value.In other words, if you believe Spiller is truly the top talent in the draft and you believe he has elite upside, then you take him no matter where he ends up.
If San Fran took Spilleryou still have plenty of backfields waiting for running backsSan DiegoHoustonSeattleDetroitNew EnglandSo i think whoever landed in these situations would have a chance to excelSD gets MathewsHouston or New England gets DwyerSeattle gets DixonDetroit gets BestSt louis might get a RB to help out Jackson in later roundsGreen bay may go out and get someone to help GrantWashington may draft a rb behind their 2 old guysSo with that being saidIf Spiller goes to SFMathews goes to SDDwyer goes to New England the other rbs below have opportunities depending on where they landed:Hardesty, Best, Dixon, Gerhart, McKnight, McCluster, Starks, Ben Tate
So? Forte had a chance to excel due to situation. He didn't because he's an average talent. Same for Lynch (whom some actually took over AP). Same for Slaton. Those guys may end up in better situations and put up better #"s in the short term, but the cream rises to the top.
While I agree somewhat with your point (talent trumps opportunity), I do think you're overlooking a few things. 1) Forte produced his rookie year and due to a great situation, he helped fantasy owners do well, 2) because Forte had a great opportunity as a rookie, owners were able to sell him for a huge price in the offseason between years 1-2.
Very good point and while we are a little off topic I'd like to comment on this and reel it back in.Like you mentioned, you can't discount what Forte did. He won owners championships and was able to give owners a great windfall in value if owners were smart enough to sell. He was fantastic for a mid/late round rookie pick and a 3rd round NFL talent.The point is we know now that Forte wasn't elite and we saw evidence of that even when performing well. However, situation plays a huge part. I think Spiller is very much elite but a situation like the 49ers will limit his value to the point that if he doesn't have more than a situational role on that team his value might be highest right now. If he's only getting 6-10 carries a game he won't be worth a 1.1-1.3 pick this time next year.Where as a good situation like Forte valued him to mid first in startups and worth much more than a 1.1 in rookie drafts. Does Spiller have enough opportunity in his rookie year in San Fran to put up numbers that might help a FF team and hold value going into 2011?
 
J. Stewart is sitting behind a RB who finished RB1 in 2008 and was a top 5 RB until his injury in week 12 in 2009. DeAngelo is still likely not going anywhere.

Look at Stewart's value.

In other words, if you believe Spiller is truly the top talent in the draft and you believe he has elite upside, then you take him no matter where he ends up.
If San Fran took Spiller

you still have plenty of backfields waiting for running backs

San Diego

Houston

Seattle

Detroit

New England

So i think whoever landed in these situations would have a chance to excel

SD gets Mathews

Houston or New England gets Dwyer

Seattle gets Dixon

Detroit gets Best

St louis might get a RB to help out Jackson in later rounds

Green bay may go out and get someone to help Grant

Washington may draft a rb behind their 2 old guys

So with that being said

If Spiller goes to SF

Mathews goes to SD

Dwyer goes to New England

the other rbs below have opportunities depending on where they landed:

Hardesty, Best, Dixon, Gerhart, McKnight, McCluster, Starks, Ben Tate
So? Forte had a chance to excel due to situation. He didn't because he's an average talent. Same for Lynch (whom some actually took over AP). Same for Slaton. Those guys may end up in better situations and put up better #"s in the short term, but the cream rises to the top.
While I agree somewhat with your point (talent trumps opportunity), I do think you're overlooking a few things. 1) Forte produced his rookie year and due to a great situation, he helped fantasy owners do well, 2) because Forte had a great opportunity as a rookie, owners were able to sell him for a huge price in the offseason between years 1-2.
Very good point and while we are a little off topic I'd like to comment on this and reel it back in.Like you mentioned, you can't discount what Forte did. He won owners championships and was able to give owners a great windfall in value if owners were smart enough to sell. He was fantastic for a mid/late round rookie pick and a 3rd round NFL talent.

The point is we know now that Forte wasn't elite and we saw evidence of that even when performing well. However, situation plays a huge part. I think Spiller is very much elite but a situation like the 49ers will limit his value to the point that if he doesn't have more than a situational role on that team his value might be highest right now. If he's only getting 6-10 carries a game he won't be worth a 1.1-1.3 pick this time next year.

Where as a good situation like Forte valued him to mid first in startups and worth much more than a 1.1 in rookie drafts. Does Spiller have enough opportunity in his rookie year in San Fran to put up numbers that might help a FF team and hold value going into 2011?
J. Stewart averaged 11.5 carries/game over 16 games in 2008. I believe he was still easily worth a 1.1-1.3 pick this past year.
 
I think Spiller playing in a RBBC with a Gore is ideal for him.

I don't think he is an elite RB talent. Maybe a great returner....good WR...and good outside runner with gaping holes.

I liked Coffee...not a ton....but why would they waste a 1st on Spiller....when they spent a 3rd on Coffee last year?

 
I think Spiller playing in a RBBC with a Gore is ideal for him.I don't think he is an elite RB talent. Maybe a great returner....good WR...and good outside runner with gaping holes.I liked Coffee...not a ton....but why would they waste a 1st on Spiller....when they spent a 3rd on Coffee last year?
I didn't mean to imply that he is an elite RB talent more that he has elite talents: as in great speed and burst.
 
I think Spiller playing in a RBBC with a Gore is ideal for him.I don't think he is an elite RB talent. Maybe a great returner....good WR...and good outside runner with gaping holes.I liked Coffee...not a ton....but why would they waste a 1st on Spiller....when they spent a 3rd on Coffee last year?
I don't think the prediction that he will go there is strong, but it's an exercise in evaluating talent vs. short term opportunity.
 
I think Spiller playing in a RBBC with a Gore is ideal for him.I don't think he is an elite RB talent. Maybe a great returner....good WR...and good outside runner with gaping holes.I liked Coffee...not a ton....but why would they waste a 1st on Spiller....when they spent a 3rd on Coffee last year?
I didn't mean to imply that he is an elite RB talent more that he has elite talents: as in great speed and burst.
It wasn't directed towards one guy. If you want someone with great speed and burst....go get that Bolt guy from Jamaica or go to a track. Give me a football player.
 
I think Spiller playing in a RBBC with a Gore is ideal for him.I don't think he is an elite RB talent. Maybe a great returner....good WR...and good outside runner with gaping holes.I liked Coffee...not a ton....but why would they waste a 1st on Spiller....when they spent a 3rd on Coffee last year?
I don't think the prediction that he will go there is strong, but it's an exercise in evaluating talent vs. short term opportunity.
If its that exercise....then why isn't it titled differently?I am a talent guy....but again I still think Forte will be a solid RB and is worth a 1st round rookie pick...so what do I know.
 
I am a talent guy....but again I still think Forte will be a solid RB and is worth a 1st round rookie pick...so what do I know.
You're not alone in that regard, I think Forte's a nice buy low. He's not elite but he's a good talent who was playing hurt last season. I think he'll bounce back nicely.
 
I think Spiller playing in a RBBC with a Gore is ideal for him.

I don't think he is an elite RB talent. Maybe a great returner....good WR...and good outside runner with gaping holes.

I liked Coffee...not a ton....but why would they waste a 1st on Spiller....when they spent a 3rd on Coffee last year?
I don't think the prediction that he will go there is strong, but it's an exercise in evaluating talent vs. short term opportunity.
If its that exercise....then why isn't it titled differently?

I am a talent guy....but again I still think Forte will be a solid RB and is worth a 1st round rookie pick...so what do I know.
It's titled perfectly for this exercise. "Assume Spiller to the 49ers, And Mathews/Dez go to favorable situations"

San Fran is an interesting spot for Spiller because of Gore and the team has potential a few years from now. Most will see it as a bad spot for Gore and the lack of success lately. Meanwhile he has Mathews and Dez going to whatever place you (the voter) think is good - if I'm voting on ideal locations, I'd guess San Diego for Mathews and Denver or Chicago (impossible but still a great spot) for Dez?

 
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller
If Dez goes anywhere close to Miami then he is not even in my top 12 unless Miami gets a real QB. Chad Henne blows that much in my opinion.
 
Comer said:
Blackjacks said:
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller
If Dez goes anywhere close to Miami then he is not even in my top 12 unless Miami gets a real QB. Chad Henne blows that much in my opinion.
Michigan State fan?
 
Comer said:
Blackjacks said:
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller
If Dez goes anywhere close to Miami then he is not even in my top 12 unless Miami gets a real QB. Chad Henne blows that much in my opinion.
Michigan State fan?
No a Michigan fan. Henne just has not impressed me at all from what I have seen from him at Miami. Miami,Cleveland,Oakland,Buffalo,Arizona are some of the teams that if he went to would look elsewhere with my 1st pick in the rookie draft and I am in need of a WR in that league. I am surprised that anyone would want him to go to Miami with Henne there at this point.
 
Comer said:
Blackjacks said:
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller
If Dez goes anywhere close to Miami then he is not even in my top 12 unless Miami gets a real QB. Chad Henne blows that much in my opinion.
Michigan State fan?
No a Michigan fan. Henne just has not impressed me at all from what I have seen from him at Miami. Miami,Cleveland,Oakland,Buffalo,Arizona are some of the teams that if he went to would look elsewhere with my 1st pick in the rookie draft and I am in need of a WR in that league. I am surprised that anyone would want him to go to Miami with Henne there at this point.
Henne is the real deal and a weapon away from making a significant impact.
 
How is Miami "Ideal" for a WR?

Places I would choose over Miami:

New England

New York Jets

New York Giants

Cincinatti

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

Indy

Houston

San Diego

Dallas

Philadelphia

Chicago

Detroit

Minnesota

Green Bay

Atlanta

New Orleans

There are 17 I just listed, there are another 8-10 I would put on a level field as Miami.

 
Comer said:
Blackjacks said:
Let's say Spiller went to the 49er's, Dez went to Miami and Matthews went to SD.......I would go with Matthews, Bryant and then Spiller
If Dez goes anywhere close to Miami then he is not even in my top 12 unless Miami gets a real QB. Chad Henne blows that much in my opinion.
Michigan State fan?
No a Michigan fan. Henne just has not impressed me at all from what I have seen from him at Miami. Miami,Cleveland,Oakland,Buffalo,Arizona are some of the teams that if he went to would look elsewhere with my 1st pick in the rookie draft and I am in need of a WR in that league. I am surprised that anyone would want him to go to Miami with Henne there at this point.
Henne is the real deal and a weapon away from making a significant impact.
:) People are severly underrating Chad Henne.
 
How is Miami "Ideal" for a WR?Places I would choose over Miami:New EnglandNew York JetsNew York GiantsCincinattiBaltimorePittsburghIndyHoustonSan DiegoDallasPhiladelphiaChicagoDetroitMinnesotaGreen BayAtlantaNew OrleansThere are 17 I just listed, there are another 8-10 I would put on a level field as Miami.
I think people are too hung up on the run first mentality of the Dolphins. SSmith (Car), Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Derrick Mason and plenty of others have put up very good numbers at WR on teams that were predominantly running teams. If Miami takes Bryant, he is instantly their #1 WR by a long shot. There is no reason Miami could not be in the top 5 of the league in rushing and still have a 1000+ yard receiver. Not to mention I think Henne is severely underrated by people here. His deep ball is beautiful, and with a talent like Bryant or another 1st round caliber WR, the numbers would be there.
 
People are severly underrating Chad Henne.
Do you consider Henne a top 5 or top 10 QB? If you don't have him in your top 10 and Miami has less than average receiving options, then please explain how Miami is "Ideal" for Bryant to land?
He is not in my top 10 at this point, no. Just outside of it actually. I am very high on him though. I rate him in the same tier as Ryan and Flacco, on my dynasty QB rankings that would be around the 11-13 range.
 
How is Miami "Ideal" for a WR?Places I would choose over Miami:New EnglandNew York JetsNew York GiantsCincinattiBaltimorePittsburghIndyHoustonSan DiegoDallasPhiladelphiaChicagoDetroitMinnesotaGreen BayAtlantaNew OrleansThere are 17 I just listed, there are another 8-10 I would put on a level field as Miami.
I think people are too hung up on the run first mentality of the Dolphins. SSmith (Car), Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Derrick Mason and plenty of others have put up very good numbers at WR on teams that were predominantly running teams. If Miami takes Bryant, he is instantly their #1 WR by a long shot. There is no reason Miami could not be in the top 5 of the league in rushing and still have a 1000+ yard receiver. Not to mention I think Henne is severely underrated by people here. His deep ball is beautiful, and with a talent like Bryant or another 1st round caliber WR, the numbers would be there.
Now that we are completely off topic... I agree as a owner of top draft picks I've been hoping for Dez to Miami. Maybe not as ideal as a few others but still top notch. There are worse options at the top of the draft. I don't think I would want to see him in Buffalo or Cleveland if they decide to reach a bit. I also wouldn't want him in Tennessee over Miami. I'd put Denver on par. Seriously is Henne really worse than Orton? I don't think there is much difference there so either Denver or Miami is OK with me.
 
Are we assuming that Bryant falls into a certain block of the draft? If we are then I'll agree that Miami is a good spot, if he falls somewhere in here:

5 (5) Chiefs

6 (6) Seahawks

7 (7) Browns

8 (8) Raiders

9 (9) Bills

10 (10) Jaguars

11 (11) Broncos (From Bears)

12 (12) Dolphins

13 (13) 49ers

14 (14) Seahawks (From Broncos)

The way I read the topic here was Spiller to SF vs. "IDEAL" situation for Bryant/Matthews.

From what I am hearing Bryants landing spot and tomorrows pro-day results are key. I just can't call Miami "Ideal" if we include the entire league. I would think that playing in Green Bay opposite Greg Jennings with Aaron Rodgers throwing to him would be ideal. I don't see Miami as being in the upper half of an ideal situation. If Bryant has a good proday and runs in the 4.4's then he might not even make it to Miami, if he has a poor showing and runs in the high 4.5's he is going to drop like a rock into the 20's.

 
Good topic. Is there also a risk that if Spiller gets put in that change of pace role with only 10 or so carries a game in SF that he gets "type cast" into the role (ala Sproles, Norwood, etc)? Will teams give him a shot at a starting gig if he's seen only as a change of pace guy? He's already got some questions about his ability to be a full time back and would spending a couple years complimenting Gore cement him in that role?

 
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Spiller going to SF would be devastating for fantasy owners for the first two or three years. I'd die if he went to SF.

Don't rule out Mathews going to NE, if he does he could vault to #1 (Considering Spiller went to SF).

 

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