At what point does the glut of young receiving talent drive down value (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

Mayock has 8 receivers with first round grades. In the NFL right approximately half of the top 25 dynast prospects are under 25. That's not including incoming rookies. At some point the value of these players becomes interchangeable. would anyone be truly shocked if Donte Moncrief outscored Watkins the year or next? Is Mike Evans a lock to score more than Odell Beckham or Amari Cooper? Is Randall Cobb old now at 24?

At some point these kids become fungible. You can't have 20 guys who are all under 24 all be top 10 dynasty receivers. Guys like Perriman and Strong might be picked in the first round but does that mean they are more of a fantasy asset than Martavis Bryant or John Brown? Michale Floyd is still a baby not even in his third season and people are already writing him off.

Can they all be studs? I'm starting to think Syndrome was correct when he told Mr. Incredible "If everyone's super, nobody is."

 

[amicsta]

This is a really interesting point you bring up. I think Moncrief/Watkins is a little extreme for 2015 with Andre there, but in general I see what you're getting at. Obviously all of these players can't be top 10 at their position, but perhaps it just makes having at least one more important. Or maybe it becomes a race to own the best 3 or 4 out of that group. If we're being fair, not all of these players have reached true "elite" status, and there is a decent chance that a bunch of players we value highly never actually get there. Mike Mayock aside (not really a huge fan), as much as I like this receiver class, the only one that I think projects to be a true, elite, WR1 right now is Cooper. The rest could end up in that awkward WR2 territory where we expect them to make a leap that never comes, while still having incredibly solid careers.

The top 15 or 16 WR right now are all very talented and for the most part fairly young, but I don't think that should make them any less of a commodity. Having players that you feel comfortable with for a long time will always be a great asset in dynasty leagues. I've pretty much been stockpiling WR's and it has worked fairly well so far. Things change so frequently that it doesn't hurt to be prepared, and not every player will grow like we project them to (I'm looking at you Keenan Allen). Moreover, the thing for me is that a glutton of viable receivers doesn't make running backs last longer in the NFL, so I'm not going to just all a sudden take what I think is a worse investment just because there are a lot of quality young receivers.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think it makes players like AJ Green and Calvin Johnson all that much more valuable as the margins narrow between elite stud and WR2. Those points get even more valuable.

 

[MAC_32]

Can they all be studs? I'm starting to think Syndrome was correct when he told Mr. Incredible "If everyone's super, nobody is."

You're right, but after going through a dynasty draft last month (rookie draft, separate) I think there is a fairly significant drop once you get outside the top 40 or so. I used to load up on talent without a current starting job, but I don't think there are near as many of those cases as there used to be. I've got a quality top 4, but my 'depth' is Harvin, Crabtree, and Corey Washington. No reliability in any of those guys and I didn't really miss out on any prime targets either. There's a good chance I'll pick a rook at 2.1, but while I think the difference between WR10 and WR30 is marginal it is important to ensure at least 4 guys you can feel comfortable starting week 1. t gets ugly quick after that.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Mayock has 8 receivers with first round grades. In the NFL right approximately half of the top 25 dynast prospects are under 25. That's not including incoming rookies. At some point the value of these players becomes interchangeable. would anyone be truly shocked if Donte Moncrief outscored Watkins the year or next? Is Mike Evans a lock to score more than Odell Beckham or Amari Cooper? Is Randall Cobb old now at 24?

At some point these kids become fungible. You can't have 20 guys who are all under 24 all be top 10 dynasty receivers. Guys like Perriman and Strong might be picked in the first round but does that mean they are more of a fantasy asset than Martavis Bryant or John Brown? Michale Floyd is still a baby not even in his third season and people are already writing him off.

Can they all be studs? I'm starting to think Syndrome was correct when he told Mr. Incredible "If everyone's super, nobody is."

So basically you are presenting a math problem along with a supply and demand equation it appears. Owners, fans, GM's and coaches are demanding more passing to receivers so that equals more fantasy points for that group in the future. If Mayock was presenting 8 running backs in the first round grade- then I would think something is wrong because that is a declining ff point group per individual player.

So the crux is as I see it is the demand is there for those "eight" because this is what the brass think is the future need....

 

[Bracie Smathers]

At what point does the glut of young receiving talent drive down value?

At the point the talent transfers to the field and all teams have talented WRs but that isn't the case right now. So far only a few are producing at top levels but most of the new kids have flashed talent and promise.

I heard a theory on why so many talented WRs have flooded into recent draft pools so try this one on for size.

The theory I heard was that the RB position has been devalued to the point that the RB position isn't getting paid and young talented athletes who used to play the RB position are now wising up and switching to other positions like WR. I can't recall where I heard this but when I did it resonated with me. Just made sense.

What do others think about the theory that young talented athletes are making the conscious decision to switch from RB to other positions since the NFL has devalued the RB position so much?

 

[Biabreakable]

I have been doing some information gathering on WR over the past week or so. For now I have only been focusing on seasons 2010-2014 as these are the most relevant seasons to the current NFL/FF environment.

I divided the WR into three groups. WR1 (top 12) WR2 (13-24) and WR3 (25-36). I then calculated the average of each group over the five year time frame and also the average of the last WR in the group over the time frame. The last player of the group is considered the minimum or baseline performance for a WR to enter that tier.

These are all using PPR scoring.

Results:

The average top 12 WR

149 targets 92.5 receptions 62.3% 1348 yards 14.8 ypc 9.5 TD 286 points

WR 12

141 targets 86 receptions 61.3% 1225 yards 14.3 ypc 7.2 TD 252 points

The average WR 13-24

124 targets 73 receptions 59.7% 1015 yards 14.1 ypc 7.1 TD 219 points

WR 24

122 targets 70 receptions 57.4% 1029.8 14.8 ypc 4.8 TD 202 points

The average WR 24-36

110 targets 64 receptions 60% 863 yards 13.9 ypc 5.6 TD 185 points

WR 36

97 targets 56 receptions 58.6% 767 yards 13.7 ypc 5.8 TD 168 points
I have not yet calculated this for WR4 or WR5 tiers. But I can tell you the performance levels out quite a bit at WR3 level. So a WR4 is going to score pretty close to a WR3. There is a large pool of WR that can provide this level of performance on a weekly basis.

So for a WR to really add value to your lineup that player needs to be performing at the WR 24 level or higher to really make a difference in helping you win. This is:

122 targets 70 receptions 57.4% 1029.8 14.8 ypc 4.8 TD 202 points

For a WR to break into the top 12 tier is:

141 targets 86 receptions 61.3% 1225 yards 14.3 ypc 7.2 TD 252 points

There are many WR who are capable of the WR 24 numbers. When doing projections I may end up with 40 or so WR I think are capable of putting up 70 receptions 1k yards and 5TD of course only half that number will actually become WR 24 or higher in any given season. Even if most of the 40 or so projected to do so actually do. There are some fine margins between a WR3 and a WR2.

The list of WR who can produce the WR 12 numbers is much smaller. I still may end up with 20 or so players I project having the upside to produce at that level. Obviously only 12 can in any given season. The ones who fail will most likely perform as WR 2 or something has gone very wrong. Such as an injury.

There has been a tremendous influx of high quality WR from last season and this seasons WR class looks very good (not as good) as well. A good number of these players will end up not meeting expectations. But the ones that do will end up being the best WR over the next five seasons or even longer than that due to WR careers usually lasting a long time. I will be going back further than 2010 to get a better set of data on how many years a WR provides these levels of performance, similarly to how I did this for the RB before.

I agree with your overall premise that there are many WR capable of performing at WR1 and WR2 levels, but there are still only 24 spots. Many will fall short even if they perform very close to projections just because some other WR perform a bit better than that in any season.

 

[Biabreakable]

So using the information above some baselines to consider.

Targets. A key baseline here is 125 targets. The average targets for a WR 2 is 123.

Over the last three seasons the lowest number of targets for a top 12 WR was 123.

Only six instances out of sixty did a WR with fewer than 125 targets finish in the top 12 over the past five seasons. A 10% chance of a WR being a top 12 WR without at least 125 targets.

2012 Eric Decker 123 targets 85 receptions 69.1% 1064 yards 12.5 ypc 13TD
2011 Jordy Nelson 96 targets 68 receptions 70.8% 1263 yards 18.6 ypc 15TD
2011 Percy Harvin 122 targets 87 receptions 71.3% 967 yards 11.1 ypc 6TD (rushing stats of 342 yards and 2TD)
2011 Mike Wallace 113 targets 72 receptions 63.7% 1193 yards 16.6 ypc 8TD
2011 Marques Colston 107 targets 80 receptions 74.8% 1143 yards 14.3 ypc 8TD
2010 Mike Wallace 99 targets 60 receptions 60.6% 1257 yards 21 ypc 10TD

The fewset targets over the last 5 seasons to become a WR1 was 96. Jordy Nelson had 70.8% catch rate 18.6 ypc and 15TD

Three of these six had 80 or more receptions despite the low number of targets.

All of these WR had over 60% catch rate. Four out of six of them were near or over 70% catch rate.

Yards per catch was a bit mixed. Three of these were above 16 ypc The three who didn't had 80 or more receptions.

The lowest number of combined TD was 8. Three of these WR had 10 TD or more.


Recptions. A key basline here is 75 receptions. The average number of receptions for a WR2 is 73 so a WR needs to do at least slightly better than that to have a chance to finish in the top 12 of WR.

Over the last three seasons the lowest number of catches for a top 12 WR was 79

Only four instances out of sixty did a WR without 75 or more receptions finish in the top 12 over the past five seasons. This is a 6.6% chance of a WR being a top 12 WR without at least 75 receptions.

2011 Jordy Nelson 96 targets 68 receptions 70.8% 1263 yards 18.6 ypc 15TD
2011 Mike Wallace 113 targets 72 receptions 63.7% 1193 yards 16.6 ypc 8TD
2010 Dwayne Bowe 133 targets 72 receptions 54.1% 1162 yards 16.1 ypc 15TD
2010 Mike Wallace 99 targets 60 receptions 60.6% 1257 yards 21 ypc 10TD

The targets for three of these four WR was below the 125 target baseline.

The fewest receptions over the last 5 seasons to become a WR1 was 60. Mike Wallace had 21 yards per catch that year and 10 TD

Three of these WR had over 60% catch rate.

The lowest yards per catch was 16.1 all four of these WR are well above average in this area.

The lowest number of combined TD was 8. Three of these WR had 10 TD or more.

Catch Rate. A key baseline here is 55%. The lowest average catch rate for WR 1-36 was 57.4%. For a WR1 it was 61%

Over the last three seasons the lowest catch rate for a top 12 WR was 53.5%.

Only seven instances out of sixty did a WR with lower than 55% catch rate finish in the top 12 over the past five seasons. A 11.6% chance.

2013 Josh Gordon 159 targets 87 receptions 54.7% 1646 yards 18.9 ypc 9TD
2013 Calvin Johnson 157 targets 84 receptions 53.5% 1489 yards 17.7 ypc 12TD
2012 Reggie Wayne 195 targets 106 receptions 54.4% 1355 yards 12.8 ypc 5TD
2011 Larry Fitzgerald 154 targets 80 receptions 51.9% 1411 yards 17.6 ypc 8TD
2010 Brandon Lloyd 153 targets 77 receptions 50.3% 1448 yards 18.8 ypc 11TD
2010 Dwayne Bowe 133 targets 72 receptions 54.1% 1162 yards 16.1 ypc 15TD
2010 Larry Fitzgerald 173 targets 90 receptions 52% 1137 yards 12.6 ypc 6TD

The fewest number of targets for this group was 133. The rest had 150 targets or more.

The lowest number of receptions for this group was 72. Six of the seven had 75 receptions or more.

Five of the seven from this group has 16.1 ypc or more. The two that didn't had 195 and 173 targets.

The lowest number of TD was five. Five of the seven had 8TD or more.

Yards and yards per catch. There isn't really a key baseline for these stats because they are largely dependent on the targets and receptions.

The lowest YPC was 11.1 the highest was 21. WR above 14.8 ypc may not need as many receptions as others to make the top 12.

Touchdowns perhaps the most difficult thing to predict. The lowest was 4TD with the high being 16TD. According to the averages you want a receiver who can score 7TD to separate themselves from the WR2/3s.

 

[Bri]

With WRs being "done" at 30ish, how unusual is it for so many under 25 to be top WRs?

 

[Shutout]

At what point does the glut of young receiving talent drive down value?

At the point the talent transfers to the field and all teams have talented WRs but that isn't the case right now. So far only a few are producing at top levels but most of the new kids have flashed talent and promise.

I heard a theory on why so many talented WRs have flooded into recent draft pools so try this one on for size.

The theory I heard was that the RB position has been devalued to the point that the RB position isn't getting paid and young talented athletes who used to play the RB position are now wising up and switching to other positions like WR. I can't recall where I heard this but when I did it resonated with me. Just made sense.

What do others think about the theory that young talented athletes are making the conscious decision to switch from RB to other positions since the NFL has devalued the RB position so much?

I think the theory is valid but I don't think you simply "decide" to be a WR when you were a RB (or that the TYPE of player that would have made a great RB ends up being a great WR). Reason being in that the body types are typically vastly different. If we are talking about a guy who is at an age to be both able to be thinking in this context and recognized by others to have the potential that warrants them to suggest a switch, you are talking about a young man that has already started developing into the type of size he is going to be, has had (or not had) the type of training that differentiates between a runner and a catcher, etc.

So I think its happening but you're seeing kids go into baseball, MMA, soccer, or other avenues in football like LB, etc. In a larger context, there is also the aspect that athletes, in general, in football who are subject more to concussions, may be avoiding the sport and that's a factor as well.

 

[Shutout]

This is a really interesting point you bring up. I think Moncrief/Watkins is a little extreme for 2015 with Andre there, but in general I see what you're getting at. Obviously all of these players can't be top 10 at their position, but perhaps it just makes having at least one more important. Or maybe it becomes a race to own the best 3 or 4 out of that group. If we're being fair, not all of these players have reached true "elite" status, and there is a decent chance that a bunch of players we value highly never actually get there. Mike Mayock aside (not really a huge fan), as much as I like this receiver class, the only one that I think projects to be a true, elite, WR1 right now is Cooper. The rest could end up in that awkward WR2 territory where we expect them to make a leap that never comes, while still having incredibly solid careers.

The top 15 or 16 WR right now are all very talented and for the most part fairly young, but I don't think that should make them any less of a commodity. Having players that you feel comfortable with for a long time will always be a great asset in dynasty leagues. I've pretty much been stockpiling WR's and it has worked fairly well so far. Things change so frequently that it doesn't hurt to be prepared, and not every player will grow like we project them to (I'm looking at you Keenan Allen). Moreover, the thing for me is that a glutton of viable receivers doesn't make running backs last longer in the NFL, so I'm not going to just all a sudden take what I think is a worse investment just because there are a lot of quality young receivers.

no, but what it DOES do is create a situation where all of a sudden, the days of "I had Jerry Rice and then there was no one close" are gone. Now, people can say my D. Thomas is your Dez Bryant is another man's Calvin. The similarities at the established top are fairly similar AND the young crop is fairly similar as well AND is numerous.

So what you are left with is a situation where everyone within reasonable theory is about the same. We aren't going to spend too much time arguing over Team A's Cobb/Allen vs. another team's Hopkins/Aj Green. So, when that happens, you SHOULD start looking at RB...and QB....and TE. That's basically what pumps blood through the entire generally accepted theories of VBD. If we are all getting 8.7 points at WR, then where we separate ourselves is by having the TE (Gronk) who outscores all the other TEs by 10.

So the presence of all these Wrs who are numerous and similar in age do become interchangeable as Sabertooth says, so now the big advantage/disadvantage is the Gurley owner versus the T. Gerhardt owner.

Hey, I'm like you. I spent the past 4-5 years putting fantasy bread on the table by holding a dominant stable of WRs. My Calvin/Andre Johnson/Fitz/Wayne type of corps in their prime couldn't be matched. But two seasons ago I switched because I started seeing that everyone could run with me. I know exactly when it happened. I played a guy who had Victor Cruz (who was obtained dirt cheap), Miles Austin, and Vincent Jackson and the guy beat my head in twice that year. My WR gods couldn't make the difference. So, I built a Rb corps of Shady and Foster and when I got Lacy, nobody could touch me again...And I'm sure that will hold up for about 10 minutes in fantasy time.. You're right, it changes fast. But I think now is a time to move on from stockpiling WRs.

 

[Englishteacher]

I know this is wack crazy but my keep 6 mini dynasty league is 15+ years old and we've kept the original starting lineup requirements where we only go with 2 starting WR's.

Seems like WR's are certainly devalued in our league obviously as the WR 2 baseline is so high.

Anyone else out there that plays 2 WR's that cares to comment?

Another thing, if you have smaller league rosters you have guys emerge usually during the course of the season that you can play the waiver wire.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

no, but what it DOES do is create a situation where all of a sudden, the days of "I had Jerry Rice and then there was no one close" are gone. Now, people can say my D. Thomas is your Dez Bryant is another man's Calvin. The similarities at the established top are fairly similar AND the young crop is fairly similar as well AND is numerous.

So what you are left with is a situation where everyone within reasonable theory is about the same. We aren't going to spend too much time arguing over Team A's Cobb/Allen vs. another team's Hopkins/Aj Green. So, when that happens, you SHOULD start looking at RB...and QB....and TE. That's basically what pumps blood through the entire generally accepted theories of VBD. If we are all getting 8.7 points at WR, then where we separate ourselves is by having the TE (Gronk) who outscores all the other TEs by 10.

So the presence of all these Wrs who are numerous and similar in age do become interchangeable as Sabertooth says, so now the big advantage/disadvantage is the Gurley owner versus the T. Gerhardt owner.

Hey, I'm like you. I spent the past 4-5 years putting fantasy bread on the table by holding a dominant stable of WRs. My Calvin/Andre Johnson/Fitz/Wayne type of corps in their prime couldn't be matched. But two seasons ago I switched because I started seeing that everyone could run with me. I know exactly when it happened. I played a guy who had Victor Cruz (who was obtained dirt cheap), Miles Austin, and Vincent Jackson and the guy beat my head in twice that year. My WR gods couldn't make the difference. So, I built a Rb corps of Shady and Foster and when I got Lacy, nobody could touch me again...And I'm sure that will hold up for about 10 minutes in fantasy time.. You're right, it changes fast. But I think now is a time to move on from stockpiling WRs.

This reminds me very much of a conversation that came up in another thread recently.

In one of my dynasty leagues I went all out for Dez/Green a few years back, thinking it would give me some huge advantage at WR every week that could hide my team's other shortcomings. In practice, I didn't see that at all.

Of course, Green's off year didn't help, but even Dez as a WR1 didn't leave me feeling like I had a big advantage at WR1. Every week my opponent was rolling out a top WR of their own. This week I'm playing against Julio. Now Antonio Brown. Now Demaryius. Now Beckham. Now Evans. When do I actually play someone where Dez gives me an advantage?

Meanwhile, in my other dynasty league I own Bell/Murray at RB. That was the complete opposite. Every week I knew that my RBs were going to absolutely blow my opponent's RBs away. No one could touch them.

 

[Ernol]

Many will argue that the larger number of elite WRs dilutes the value of an elite WR. In Dynasty, I’d say this is dead wrong.

Its not about capturing the one player that gives you the ultimate advantage over the next best player at that position – like how Jimmy Graham a few years ago was, and how Gronk now is, being touted. That ultimate advantage (as compared to the impact of having an elite WR) is an illusion. Its not about comparing your WR1 against another team’s WR1 when evaluating elite WRs. The advantage of having a Demaryius Thomas at WR1 is not that it gives you an advantage over another team’s Dez Bryant, because it doesn’t . What it does though is that Demaryius pushes all other WRs on your team down one slot, so that you can now compare what used to be your WR3, for example, to someone else’s WR4. Without Demaryius, you are now comparing a WR2-level player (which is now your WR1 without Demaryius) against someone else’s Dez, your even weaker WR2 (which is really a WR3 level player) against the other team’s WR2 (which is actually comparable to your WR1), and so on. Having Demaryius has a cumulative effect on all of your starting WRs and flex players.

In any case, the goal in Dynasty not to acquire a player that has an advantage over the next best player at his position. It is to put together a collection of players that can provide a cumulative advantage over all other teams, both in value and in production, for a long period of time. By that criteria, in PPR, going WR is still (and will likely continue to be for the foreseeable future) where the money is.

The real trick though is not obtaining just one of these elite WR to “match” 9 other teams. It’s about acquiring as many of these players as you possibly can (as long as you can start at least 4 WR). Owning 4 (or more) of these 10 elite players means that a maximum of only 6 other teams could own at least one of these players. Even as compared to those teams that are now lucky enough to own 1, having 4 gives your team a massive advantage over those teams. That advantage only grows over the years because while your elite players maintain their value and production allowing you to build on that value, the Lesean McCoy, Ray Rice, etc. owners lose theirs. That is one of the reasons that my dynasty teams consistently have more elite players than the other teams in my leagues. I invest in an elite asset group that is most likely to continue to maintain their elite value.

Many still believe that WRs are the way to go in Dynasty for value accumulation. I obviously agree. But what about production? Can a strategy focused on acquiring elite WRs at the expense of other positions (mainly RB and QB) still win when elite WRs are so “diluted”. Of course it can. I can pull many examples in my leagues where this strategy has won, but countless others can pull examples of a RB-centric strategy winning in their leagues. So how do I settle this? One of a number of things I like about the DFWC is that it is the ultimate testing ground for strategies. Each team is not only up against their own league, but up against 287 other teams. It is useful as a study of what strategy will perform best.

In that testing ground, one of my teams proved last year that a WR-focused strategy can be dominant not just league-wide, but Dynasty-wide (to the extent “Dynasty-wide” can be roughly represented by a field of 288 teams). There, my team bested all 287 other Dynasty teams in total points during the regular season solely on the strength of an elite group of WR. That was achieved despite having a less than adequate supporting cast of Justin Forsett, Chris Ivory, Denard Robinson and Christine Michael at RB (in a start 2-4 RB format), Eli Manning at QB and Jimmy Graham at TE (who was a negative in 2014). My WRs were Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon (ick), Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin (in a start 3-5 WR format). With a great set of WR, as this team showed, it almost doesn’t matter what you have at other positions (within reason of course). The team still finished #1 out of 288.

That’s not to say that amassing elite WRs is the only Dynasty-wide winning strategy in the short term (or the long term). A few other teams came very close to my team’s production with the likes of the Demarco/Bell/Forte combo (plus WRs such as Emmanuel Sanders). I anticipate that those teams relying on RBs will eventually tail off in value and production while my team’s production could continue indefinitely, but I do recognize a team CAN win with RBs. What my team proved though was that a team of WR can at the very least hang with the best of the best even in the short term.

What I believe the team will show in the long term is that going the elite WR route is the very best way to go, not only in accumulating value but also in actual production.

 

[deancheated]

I think the shift years ago from "draft stud RBs early" to now "draft as many WRs as you can" has got to swing back the other way at some point. I see guys in PPR dynasty leagues completely dismissing the importance of RBs now. "They have such a short shelf life" and "things change quickly" and "get hurt a lot more often than WRs"...all of that may be true to a point, but you still have to start 2 (or with flex 3) RBs in a lot of these leagues. Seems to me with so many good young WRs in the NFL, and each NFL team having at least 2 starting WRs (some offenses have 3 good weapons/starters) that it makes the elite PPR RBs a lot more scarce and valuable does it not? I think these upcoming rookie drafts will be very telling. Most "experts" agree we have at least 2 VERY good if not great RB prospects in Gordan and Gurley. If we start seeing 2 or 3 WRs going before them across the board in these drafts, regardless of team needs, I think FF owners have officially taken the WR love too far. Anyone else feel this way?

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm in two dynasty leagues. Both winners had Leveon Bell. So I do think you are onto something there.

 

[JackReacher]

Most "experts" agree we have at least 2 VERY good if not great RB prospects in Gordan and Gurley. If we start seeing 2 or 3 WRs going before them across the board in these drafts, regardless of team needs, I think FF owners have officially taken the WR love too far. Anyone else feel this way?

Amari Cooper is my number one player, assuming he doesn't go to the Jets or Browns. I rate him and Gurley as equals in talent level. But Cooper offers the potential of elite longevity as Ernol described, and you can never have too many of those guys. At worst, I believe he will be a good player for 10+ years.

 

[JackReacher]

I'm in two dynasty leagues. Both winners had Leveon Bell. So I do think you are onto something there.

Who were their wides?

 

[deancheated]

All I know is, in over 15 years of playing FF, I have only had 2 undefeated seasons. The first time, was the I think 2003 when Jamel Lewis had his career year, along with Stephen Davis and Priest Holmes. I can't go back and tell you my WRs, but there was no doubt the RBs carried me the entire year. Then in 2013 I had my only other undefeated season, that was headlined by Jamal Charles huge year (and Gio Bernard beasting as well) RBs matter, no matter what the WR guys tell us.

 

[Dan Hindery]

Lot's of good posts in this thread. I'll add my take from a slightly different angle...

1. The 2014 rookie WR class is overrated in dynasty right now. If a WR doesn't become elite, there's just not that much value because the "rising tide" so to speak raises the "replacement level" and, perhaps more importantly, the level at which a guy becomes an impact fantasy option. So, outside of OBJ and Evans, do any of the rookies look like good bets to become elite? Maybe a couple of the Watkins, Cooks, Benjamin, Matthews, etc. tier do pan out to be stars. In today's WR environment, a guy like Torrey Smith just doesn't have much value in PPR. Are Martavis Bryant, Jordan Matthews and some of these other rookie WRs highly likely to out-produce guys like Smith?

2. This has happened so many times in recent years and yet it seems to repeat itself every offseason. There is this big post-rookie season inflation bubble as there is always at least a one or two owners willing to believe in the best possible outcome for each of the rookies who showed flashes. Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, Christine Michael, Montee Ball, etc. all get pushed way up the board. This year, Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry, Cody Latimer, etc. all seem to be going at a real premium. It's likely that a couple of the group will end up being consistent top 20 producers at WR. But most of them won't. When the bottom falls out of the value for a lot of these guys, I think we'll get back to some equilibrium at the WR ranks in dynasty with a more clearcut top tier.

3. I get why the 2014 guys and the incoming rookies are hot commodities right now, because you'd obviously rather have upside than known mediocrity. I don't fault owners for chasing these guys. Same with the incoming WR rookie class. But just because 6 or 7 WRs may go in the first round (and all will have dynasty value their first couple years), doesn't mean more than 2 or 3 of them have any real value in two or three years. And I think we see a lot more busts and plenty "meh" guys whose careers follow the Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Michael Floyd, etc. path where they are solid NFL players but not really impact fantasy factors.

 

[JackReacher]

Lot's of good posts in this thread. I'll add my take from a slightly different angle...

1. The 2014 rookie WR class is overrated in dynasty right now. If a WR doesn't become elite, there's just not that much value because the "rising tide" so to speak raises the "replacement level" and, perhaps more importantly, the level at which a guy becomes an impact fantasy option. So, outside of OBJ and Evans, do any of the rookies look like good bets to become elite? Maybe a couple of the Watkins, Cooks, Benjamin, Matthews, etc. tier do pan out to be stars. In today's WR environment, a guy like Torrey Smith just doesn't have much value in PPR. Are Martavis Bryant, Jordan Matthews and some of these other rookie WRs highly likely to out-produce guys like Smith?

2. This has happened so many times in recent years and yet it seems to repeat itself every offseason. There is this big post-rookie season inflation bubble as there is always at least a one or two owners willing to believe in the best possible outcome for each of the rookies who showed flashes. Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, Christine Michael, Montee Ball, etc. all get pushed way up the board. This year, Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry, Cody Latimer, etc. all seem to be going at a real premium. It's likely that a couple of the group will end up being consistent top 20 producers at WR. But most of them won't. When the bottom falls out of the value for a lot of these guys, I think we'll get back to some equilibrium at the WR ranks in dynasty with a more clearcut top tier.

3. I get why the 2014 guys and the incoming rookies are hot commodities right now, because you'd obviously rather have upside than known mediocrity. I don't fault owners for chasing these guys. Same with the incoming WR rookie class. But just because 6 or 7 WRs may go in the first round (and all will have dynasty value their first couple years), doesn't mean more than 2 or 3 of them have any real value in two or three years. And I think we see a lot more busts and plenty "meh" guys whose careers follow the Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Michael Floyd, etc. path where they are solid NFL players but not really impact fantasy factors.

Good post Dan

 

[Ernol]

There are two related but different discussions here.

The first is whether the value of elite WRs is being diluted and my answer above was no. Elite WRs are the best assets to hold in Dynasty.

The second is whether owners should DRAFT potentially elite rookie WRs (over potentially elite rookie RBs) in hopes of landing one of those elite WRs and my answer there is “It depends”.

Stud RBs have value and plenty of it. In many leagues, you could convert Leveon Bell to a Dez Bryant (and you should). In some, you could get Dez and then some. If Todd Gurley recovers fully and becomes the star that many think he’ll become, his value will join the ranks of the elite WRs and even pass Leveon Bell. At that point, if you like elite WRs like I do, you could trade Gurley to get one.

Accordingly, owners should draft the rookie with the best chance of becoming elite at their position, because at that point, you’ll have the flexibility to shape your team exactly as you want. Last year, drafting WR at the top was clearly the way to go. This year, its not entirely clear since there are attractive choices at both positions.

 

[Dan Hindery]

I think the shift years ago from "draft stud RBs early" to now "draft as many WRs as you can" has got to swing back the other way at some point. I see guys in PPR dynasty leagues completely dismissing the importance of RBs now. "They have such a short shelf life" and "things change quickly" and "get hurt a lot more often than WRs"...all of that may be true to a point, but you still have to start 2 (or with flex 3) RBs in a lot of these leagues. Seems to me with so many good young WRs in the NFL, and each NFL team having at least 2 starting WRs (some offenses have 3 good weapons/starters) that it makes the elite PPR RBs a lot more scarce and valuable does it not? I think these upcoming rookie drafts will be very telling. Most "experts" agree we have at least 2 VERY good if not great RB prospects in Gordan and Gurley. If we start seeing 2 or 3 WRs going before them across the board in these drafts, regardless of team needs, I think FF owners have officially taken the WR love too far. Anyone else feel this way?

I agree to a certain extent. All things being equal, if I think a guy's an elite talent at his position, I'd take the WR over the RB so I see that point as being correct. However, I agree with you that we've seen this over-compensation and now guys are willing to take more pedestrian WRs over potentially elite RBs and I think that is a mistake. The biggest factor in recent years has been that the influx of young RB talent hasn't matched the influx of young WR talent. Mark Ingram just wasn't as good as AJ Green and Julio Jones. Too many people have only taken from that the lesson that WR>RB. When in fact the lesson was just the age old reminder to draft good players.

In short, if you believe that Cooper and/or White are Julio/AJ type talents, then you have to take them at the top of your rookie draft. If not and you think Gurley and/or Gordon is special, you have to take them and ignore the "all WRs all the time" mantra that many seem to be playing with these days. I personally think we're set to see some fantastic RB talent hit the NFL in the next 2 to 3 years that will remind people how important and valuable the position is in dynasty. Landing spot will be important, but I'm leaning towards Gurley as my recommendation for 1.01 right now.

 

[amicsta]

I think thats kind of my point on Cooper is that I think hes the best WR prospect since the Julio/Green class. Under that setting, he is my 1.01