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Atomic Punk's Mock Draft - Version 2 (1 Viewer)

Atomic Punk

Footballguy
Free agency is starting slow down and the draft is onyl a month away. there are still a lot of things that can change, but I thought it was time to put out version 1 of my two round mock. There are a few trades involved and some picks that I am definitiely not sold on.

Have at it.

1. New York Jets – Reggie Bush, RB

(To New York - #1 / To Houston - #4, #29 and 2007 2nd round pick)

The new front office puts a stamp on this team for the next decade by making a bold move into the top of the draft for Reggie Bush. The Jets have a lot of needs, but the opportunity to obtain a player like this is too good to pass up and they can afford it with the acquisition of the #29 from Atlanta for John Abraham. The offer is too good for the Texans to pass up and with Pennington and Ramsey in the fold New York can take a wait and see approach at the QB position for at least another year.

2. New Orleans Saints – D’Brickshaw Ferguson, OT

Easy pick. The signing of Drew Brees changes everything and removes the immediacy in drafting a QB. The Saints will look to trade down, but since they don’t want to slide too far, their trading options are limited. The talk about Mario Williams or Leinart is nothing more that an attempt to drum up interest for a wild trade offer. Ferguson is a premier tackle and the Saints make the smart choice to bolster their line to protect Brees and his questionable shoulder.

3. Tennessee Titans – Matt Leinart, QB

The Titans add their QB of the (near) future and let him learn from McNair until he is ready to take over. This also gives the Titans the option of dumping McNair earlier and opting instead to go with Leinart and Volek. They may think of trading up with the Saints, but I think they will call the Saints bluff, hold firm and still get their man. Trading up into this spot is possible for a team keen on jumping ahead of the Pack and Texans for a shot at Super Mario (Detroit, Denver?).

4. Houston Texans (from NYJ) – Mario Williams, DE

(To New York - #1 / To Houston - #4, #29 and 2007 2nd round pick)

The Texans made a sizable investment in Carr and will not introduce another QB into the mix at the top of the first round. Instead they make the smart move, trade down and pick up additional picks for some much needed depth. The transition to the 4-3 defense will be a lot smoother if they have a pass rushing stud on the end that can also hold up against the run. Williams is the type of guy the Texans can build a defense around.

5. Green Bay Packers – A.J. Hawk OLB

The Packers decision between Williams and Hawk is made easy when Williams gets taken at #4. I’m not completely sold the Packers will take another 1st round LB (Barnett) but it would be very hard for them to pass up the BPA at a major position of need. Trading down a few spots to a team interested in one of the remaining QBs (Denver, Minnesota) would be an excellent move if the Pack can get an additional 2nd round pick out of the deal but I’m not sold on that yet.

6. Minnesota Vikings – Jay Cutler, QB

(To Minnesota - #6 / To San Francisco - #17, #48 and #83)

San Fran can go with either Vernon Davis, who would provide Smith with a nice big target or Michael Huff to solidify the secondary, but the Vikings make an offer that will give them much needed extra picks and send the front office the additional signing bonus that comes with a pick at the top of the draft. The Vikings can afford the loss of the extra picks due to the Culpepper trade and Minnesota has a long term need at QB, since most would agree that Brad Johnson is nothing more than a short term answer.

7. Oakland Raiders – Vince Young, QB

This Raiders pick has me stumped. Mario Williams would have been an excellent fit but with him gone Davis still has a choice between some incredible athletes (Davis, Young and Hgata). Young seems to be a popular pick lately. The Raiders have a need at QB and Davis has a history of going for speed, potential and all-round athleticism. Young has all of the above, so I’ll go with him for now.

8. Buffalo Bills – Haloti Ngata, DT

I have a feeling the Bills will get tempted with a few trade offers but this pick is a perfect fit. Buffalo needs help with their porous rush defense and could use a solid anchor up the middle. Vernon Davis is another possibility, but Levy knows better than anyone that you win and lose in the trenches and will go for substance over style in round one.

9. Denver Broncos – Vernon Davis, TE

(To Denver - #9 / To Detroit - #15 and #61)

The Broncos usually prefer to move down and add picks, but they may feel as though they are pretty close and only need another playmaker on offense to make a difference. Vernon Davis will be put to good use in the Broncos play action offense. Detroit makes out pretty good by adding a lower pick to shore up their offensive line and linebackers without dropping too far down.

10. Arizona Cardinals – Winston Justice, OT

Dennis Green has says that he is happy with his RBs then he goes out and signs James. He signed Warner to a contract, so could he make a push to move up and take Young or Cutler? It’s possible but not too likely. Warner needs lots of time to set up in the pocket, drafting a young tackle will hopefully help them do a much better job of protecting him.

11. Saint Louis Rams – Michael Huff, CB/S

The signing of Will Witherspoon may end up having the biggest impact of any this off-season and allows the Rams to fill other needs through the draft. Huff is the logical choice since he is arguably BPA and fills a huge need.

12. Cleveland Browns – Chad Greenway, OLB

The Browns have filled most of their major areas of need through free agency. Ngata would have been a nice complement to Washington if he fell, but Crennel probably won’t mind adding to his stable of pass rushing OLB’s. The drafting of Greenway plus the addition of Willie McGinest will go a long way to improve the Cleveland pass rush.

13. San Francisco 49ers – Jimmy Williams CB/S

(To San Francisco - #13 / To Baltimore - #17 and #68)

The talent level starts to take a bit of a dip here. The Ravens generally don’t reach for players and can afford to drop a little as they are targeting a few players that will likely still be available at #17. The Niners on the other hand have some ammo to move up and fill a big need area at CB. Williams may have some character issues but he definitely has the size and skills to make a difference on the 49ers defense

14. Philadelphia Eagles – Brodrick Bunkley, DT

I’m seriously considering the Eagles for either DeAngelo Williams or LenDale White … call it a gut feeling. Nothing against Westbrook but I can see them moving toward a more balanced offence and the need for a more complete RB. Enough of the crazy talk, I’ve come to my senses and expect the Eagles to address their lines or wide receiver. With the lack of playmakers at WR available and Runyan re-signed, Bunkley is the pick

15. Detroit Lions – Ernie Sims, OLB

(To Detroit - #15 and #61 / To Denver - #9)

The Harrington era is over and the Lions have two new arms in town (Kitna and McCown), so QB is not a pressing need any longer. Millen makes the picks, but I think Marinelli will have more influence on the type of players that are taken than the previous head coaches. Sims is undersized but flies to the ball and will fit in to the new defensive schemes that call for speed rather than size.

16. Miami Dolphins – Kamerion Wimbley, OLB/DE

All of the Dolphins free agent pick ups look solid but unspectacular. The Dolphins are without a 2nd round pick from the Culpepper trade so whichever position they don’t fill of their two major needs (OT and OLB) they will need to pick up in the 3rd round. With more teams converting to the 3-4 defense the Dolphins take Kamerion Wimbley and hope an OT drops.

17. Baltimore Ravens – Marcus McNeill, OT

(To Baltimore Ravens - #17 and #68 / To San Francisco - #13)

I was surprised by the re-signing of Jamal Lewis and expected the Ravens to team Anderson with a rookie. The trade gives the Ravens their 3rd round pick back and allows them to rebuild their offensive line by drafting Marcus McNeill.

18. Dallas Cowboys – Chad Jackson, WR

Sure, they just got T.O. but drafting Jackson gives them a lot of added benefits. It gives Bledsoe an additional threat with exceptional speed and allows Glenn to move into the slot where he may be able to do even more damage. An OLB like Lawson or Carpenter would also be a solid pick.

19. San Diego Chargers – Santonio Holmes, WR

The Chargers are looking pretty good but are lacking depth almost everywhere. If they want Rivers to succeed the Chargers are going to run Tomlinson consistently. A playmaker that can stretch the field and get the safeties out of the box is a must.

20. Kansas City Chiefs – Tamba Hali, DE

The Chiefs get a gift as Hail slides down on draft day. Kansas City hasn’t had a pass rusher like Hali in some time. He will instantly take pressure off of Jared Allen and improve what has been an uninspired defense in recent years.

21. New England Patriots – DeAngelo Williams, RB

This is completely out of character, but I can’t see them passing up this talent. When Dillon was out last year the entire offense suffered. Williams will make a nice compliment until Dillon retires. OLB (Lawson, Carpenter) and CB (Hill, Youboty) are also obvious possibilities.

22. Denver Broncos – LenDale White, RB

I wasn’t expecting this when I started out this mock, but I don’t think they can pass this kind of talent up. The combination of White and Bell will make a great duo and continue the Skeletor trend of messing with fantasy players.

23. Houston Texans – Eric Winston, OT

(To Houston - #23 / To Tampa Bay - #33 and #65)

The Texans overpay to move up ten spots and make certain they grab much needed help for their woeful offensive line. Winston is solid against speed rushers and that will come in handy against the AFC South (Freeney, Hayward and Vanden Bosch). The Bucs are aging fast and need an infusion of youth. Adding a high third in a deep draft will help.

24. Cincinnati Bengals – Gabe Watson, DT

It has been a pretty quiet off-season in Cincy. There is a chance they continue to rebuild their defensive secondary, but a run stuffing DT is the most likely pick here. Wroten or Watson are the likely candidates, but Watson appears to be the better fit.

25. New York Giants – Claude Wroten, DT

The Giants added Sam Madison and a host of other lesser CBs, so one of their needs has been filled. I think they will lose out on Arrington so the need for an OLB will remain. Yet, they tend to be more concerned about building their defensive line rather than linebackers through the draft.

26. Chicago Bears – Antonio Cromartie, CB

I just can’t see them taking a TE in the 1st round when there is such great depth at the position in this year’s draft. Cornerback is a need and Cromartie is a steal if he is fully healed. A safety (Bing, Whitner) is also a possibility.

27. San Francisco 49ers – Manny Lawson, OLB/DE

(To San Francisco - #27 / To Carolina - #38 and #83)

Carolina does not have a lot of holes to fill and can afford to move down and add depth instead. San Fran needs more backers for their 3-4 defense and Lawson may be the best pure pass rusher in the draft.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars – DeMeco Ryans, OLB

The Jaguars, like the Panthers, do not have a lot of significant needs. Assuming Arrington doesn’t end up in Jacksonville, the Jaguars would be hard pressed to pass up Ryans. Leonard Pope and Tye Hill are other options.

29. Houston Texans – Sinorice Moss, WR

If the Texans want Carr to succeed, they are going to have to find him more weapons. The addition of Moss will hopefully take away the constant double teams from Andre Johnson.

30. Indianapolis Colts – Laurence Maroney, RB

This is another easy pick, where the BPA meets a team’s biggest need. Maroney will likely share time with Rhodes until he can pick up the playbook, and more importantly, pick up the blitz.

31. Seattle Seahawks – Tye Hill, CB

Seattle has the luxury of drafting BPA, as they do not have a lot of holes to fill. Hill is raw but has tremendous speed. Seattle’s depth will allow them to bring him along slowly.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Donte Whitner, S

The Steelers need a coverage safety to make up for Polamalu who likes to play up near the line. Whitner should be a nice addition to the Super Bowl champs.

33. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ashton Youbuty CB

(To Tampa Bay - #33 and #65 / To Houston - #23)

The Bucs have bigger needs at other position but Youbuty is too good to pass up here.

34. New Orleans Saints – D’Qwell Jackson, ILB

The recent signings of Anthony Simmons and Scott Fujita are not enough.

35. New York Jets – Nick Mangold, C

The Jets interior offensive line has been destroyed and needs fresh meat.

36. Green Bay Packers – Kelly Jennings, CB

A typical Thompson reach. The Pack could also go for OG David Joseph.

37. Oakland Raiders – Bobby Carpenter, OLB

Another workout warrior for the Raiders.

38. Carolina Panthers – Leonard Pope, TE

(To Carolina - #38 and #83 / To San Fran - #27)

I’m not certain he’ll drop this far, but if he does the Panthers will grab him.

39. Tennessee Titans – Abdul Hodge, ILB

40. Detroit Lions – Jonathon Scott, OT

41. Arizona Cardinals – Ko Simpson, S

42. Buffalo Bills – Mathias Kiwanuka, DE

43. Cleveland Browns – David Joseph, OG

44. Baltimore Ravens – Rod Wright, DT

45. Philadelphia Eagles – Thomas Howard, OLB

46. St. Louis Rams – Darnell Bing, S

47. Atlanta Falcons – Jonathon Joseph, CB

48. San Francisco 49ers – Marcedes Lewis, TE

(To San Fran - #17, #48 and #83 / To Minnesota #6)

49. Dallas Cowboys – Charles Spencer, OG

50. San Diego Chargers – Max Jean-Gilles, OG

51. Minnesota Vikings – Roger McIntosh, OLB

52. New England Patriots – Richard Marshall, CB

53. Washington Redskins – Daryl Tapp, DE

54. Kansas City Chiefs – Derek Hagan, WR

55. Cincinnati Bengals – Dominique Byrd, TE

56. New York Giants – Jason Avant, WR

57. Chicago Bears – Joe Klopfenstein, TE

58. Carolina Panthers – Omar Jacobs, QB

59. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Orien Harris, DT

60. Jacksonville Jaguars – Anthony Fasano, TE

61. Detroit Lions – Andrew Whitworth, OT

(To Detroit - #15 and #61 / To Denver - #9)

62. Indianapolis Colts – James Anderson, OLB

63. Seattle Seahawks – Taitusi Lutui, OG

64. Pittsburgh Steelers – Joseph Addai, RB

 
it'll take alot more then Denvers 2nd rounder to move up from 15 to 9

more like Denver's 2 1st rounders this year. and i doubt Detroit takes Ernie Sims there they'd go OL with Justice or Giles and add a saftey in the mix as well

no way they pass on Tamba Hali at that spot either. and if Huff slides to 11 i'd be shocked. Huff will be a Lion if hes there at 9.

 
Denver's 15th is worth 1050 and 61st is worth 292 for a total of 1342. Detroits ninth is worth 1350.

I'd say it's pretty close.

 
Vikings don't need to go to #6 to get Cutler, #8 would be optimal to secure him.

The Jets trade for #1 sure would make the draft fun and bring lots of excitment for Jets fans...

I also don't see Huff sliding.

 
it'll take alot more then Denvers 2nd rounder to move up from 15 to 9

more like Denver's 2 1st rounders this year. and i doubt Detroit takes Ernie Sims there they'd go OL with Justice or Giles and add a saftey in the mix as well

no way they pass on Tamba Hali at that spot either. and if Huff slides to 11 i'd be shocked. Huff will be a Lion if hes there at 9.
It's funny when people act like they know what the Detroit Lions are gonna do in the draft. These guys could take a long snapper and it wouldn't surprise me.
 
Detroit is hard to figure. I originally thought they would go DE but the re-sihning of Edwards made me second guess that. If they stay at #9 I think they will take Huff. The Denver and Detroit trade is equitable according to the draft chart, but they have extra picks to play with. For arguments sake you can add another 3rd or 4th round pick if you think it would take more.

I agree that Minny could probably get Cutler at #8, but there has been some talk of Oakland being interested in Cutler. I also think it would be harder for them to trade with Buffalo. Ngata is a perfect fit for the Bills and they are in desperate need of a run stuffing DT.

I would love to see the Vikings make a move like this. They are in a pretty good position to make some noise on draft day and their lineup is already pretty solid. Getting a young QB to sit behind Johnson for a year would be an excellent move.

 
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Tamba Hali, DE

Call me crazy, but I doubt Hall stays in the top 35 picks come draft day.

 
Good mock Atomic, my brother and I were just saying the other day that the Panthers might trade down if the price was right. However it would not hurt my feelings if they drafted Lawson.

 
it'll take alot more then Denvers 2nd rounder to move up from 15 to 9

more like Denver's 2 1st rounders this year. and i doubt Detroit takes Ernie Sims there they'd go OL with Justice or Giles and add a saftey in the mix as well

no way they pass on Tamba Hali at that spot either. and if Huff slides to 11 i'd be shocked. Huff will be a Lion if hes there at 9.
It's funny when people act like they know what the Detroit Lions are gonna do in the draft. These guys could take a long snapper and it wouldn't surprise me.
That is the point of a mock draft..... :confused:
 
Good mock Atomic, my brother and I were just saying the other day that the Panthers might trade down if the price was right. However it would not hurt my feelings if they drafted Lawson.
I would be shocked to see the Cowboys pass on Lawson to take Chad Jackson, although as a Cowboys fan Jackson wouldn't upset me.
 
it'll take alot more then Denvers 2nd rounder to move up from 15 to 9

more like Denver's 2 1st rounders this year. and i doubt Detroit takes Ernie Sims there they'd go OL with Justice or Giles and add a saftey in the mix as well

no way they pass on Tamba Hali at that spot either. and if Huff slides to 11 i'd be shocked. Huff will be a Lion if hes there at 9.
I agree.
 
I was really enjoying the mock until I read Dallas taking a WR in the first.

There is no doubt that Dallas needs more youth at WR. Jackson is the top rated WR in the draft. But as long as Parcells is in control (or at least has a major say), there's no way in hell that Dallas drafts a WR in the first.

Here is a direct quote from Parcells from his press conference on December 29th: "I think taking wide receivers real high is risky." When asked for an explanation, he added, "Well, because… I’ve seen. Well, first of all you’ve have more options at that position, usually. And um….. I mean I’ve seen a lot of guys that don’t play very good. That position Just take a look around at the last couple of drafts. Guys get taken first and not playing very good. And then of course there are others taken very high like Fitzgerald that are playing real good. So, got to be lucky there."

So what this means is that if Dallas takes a WR, it is later on in the draft. Parcells firmly believes you can find good WRs late. And early WRs have a high bust rate, according to Tuna.

What Tuna does have a strong propensity to do is draft Defensive front seven guys in the first. His teams have drafted there more often in the first than any other positions.

The current Dallas team has needs at OLB and NT in the front seven. I don't think there is value at NT at 18. So that leaves OLB. At 18, Lawson and Carpenter are still on your board and are the most likely draft candidates for Dallas.

Lawson, in particular, would make an exceptional bookend to Ware. Both of these guys pose a substantial threat to an offense. That would make teams guess which of these two beasts is blitzing on every particular down. That threat really opens up a lot of options for the Dallas defense to cause confusion and chaos. And thats why I think Dallas goes OLB at 18, with Lawson being #1 on the list of candidates.

It fits the combination of value, need, and historical tendencies. In contrast, WR only has need and perhaps value. It goes in total contravention of historical tendencies.

 
Too many trades. Won't happen.
You are probably right, although it seems like more because they are noted a few times. The thing that I find most interesting is that two of the trades involve Houston and three involve SF.I can really see both of these teams doing a lot of moving around. Both teams know they don't have a chance and doing much damage this year and should seriously consider adding multiple players in what is shaping up as a very deep draft for talent.

There are "only" six trades. Anyone know off hand how many trades there are on average within the first two rounds?

 
Good mock Atomic, my brother and I were just saying the other day that the Panthers might trade down if the price was right. However it would not hurt my feelings if they drafted Lawson.
Thanks, there are about a half dozen teams that I'm really uncertain about and the Panthers are one of them. When it came to their pick, I just couldn't see them reaching for someone and would accept a decent offer to move out of the 1st round.
 
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Tamba Hali, DE

Call me crazy, but I doubt Hall stays in the top 35 picks come draft day.
:loco: (crazy)Hali won't fall past Denver's later 1st rounder if he falls that far. I personally love the pick for KC, although I would prefer them to trade down and get Gabe Watson.

15. Detroit Lions – Ernie Sims, OLB

(To Detroit - #15 and #61 / To Denver - #9)

The Harrington era is over and the Lions have two new arms in town (Kitna and McCown), so QB is not a pressing need any longer. Millen makes the picks, but I think Marinelli will have more influence on the type of players that are taken than the previous head coaches. Sims is undersized but flies to the ball and will fit in to the new defensive schemes that call for speed rather than size.
I don't see the trade down, although Sims is a talent. Not with Justice and Huff on the board. FWIW, it wouldn't totally shock me if they took Davis. They should go D or OL. I do like what you did here though, Whitworth and Sims would fit two needs.

 
I was really enjoying the mock until I read Dallas taking a WR in the first.

There is no doubt that Dallas needs more youth at WR. Jackson is the top rated WR in the draft. But as long as Parcells is in control (or at least has a major say), there's no way in hell that Dallas drafts a WR in the first.

So what this means is that if Dallas takes a WR, it is later on in the draft. Parcells firmly believes you can find good WRs late. And early WRs have a high bust rate, according to Tuna.

What Tuna does have a strong propensity to do is draft Defensive front seven guys in the first. His teams have drafted there more often in the first than any other positions.

The current Dallas team has needs at OLB and NT in the front seven. I don't think there is value at NT at 18. So that leaves OLB. At 18, Lawson and Carpenter are still on your board and are the most likely draft candidates for Dallas.

Lawson, in particular, would make an exceptional bookend to Ware. Both of these guys pose a substantial threat to an offense. That would make teams guess which of these two beasts is blitzing on every particular down. That threat really opens up a lot of options for the Dallas defense to cause confusion and chaos. And thats why I think Dallas goes OLB at 18, with Lawson being #1 on the list of candidates.

It fits the combination of value, need, and historical tendencies. In contrast, WR only has need and perhaps value. It goes in total contravention of historical tendencies.
I started this draft a week ago and kept stalling between Baltimore and Dallas. The talent level drops and the needs of most of the teams in this range is questionable. If there was a decent 3-4 DT available I would have definitely gone in that direction. Lawson was my only other option as I'm not really sold on Carpenter that high.Thanks for the feedback. Lawson just may be the guy for the Cowboys when I do version 2.

 
Vikings don't need to go to #6 to get Cutler, #8 would be optimal to secure him.
Exactly my thoughts. I don't doubt they'll look to move up but they aren't going to overpay to get to #6.
 
I don't see the trade down, although Sims is a talent.

Not with Justice and Huff on the board. FWIW, it wouldn't totally shock me if they took Davis. They should go D or OL. I do like what you did here though, Whitworth and Sims would fit two needs.

Davis was an option but I just can't see Millen taking another receiver, albeit a TE, with his 1st round pick. He would get destroyed by the press.

Huff was the obvious choice here, but I wasn't completely sold on the need. Is their secondary that bad or was the problem that they didn't get a lot of help from their front seven?

The Denver trade up with Detroit may have been forced. I just think that Denver is primed to make a jump into the top 10 to grab one of the elite prospects and the jump from 9 to 15 shouldn't cost them too much according to the draft chart.

There has been a few comments that the #15 and #61 isn't enough, but I don't think too many teams will get fleeced like Cleveland did two years ago to get Winslow.

 
Vikings don't need to go to #6 to get Cutler, #8 would be optimal to secure him.
Exactly my thoughts. I don't doubt they'll look to move up but they aren't going to overpay to get to #6.
So do you think Buffalo will give up the opportunity to draft Ngata at DT? He is BPA at that spot and fills the Bills biggest need?There run defense was pathetic last year.

 
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Tamba Hali, DE

Call me crazy, but I doubt Hall stays in the top 35 picks come draft day.
:goodposting: Sad to say as a PSU fan, but I think he's falling like a rock. I still believe that he can be a very effective DE in the NFL. He just will have to wait until the early to mid 2nd and prove himself before he gets that huge payday.

 
Huff was the obvious choice here, but I wasn't completely sold on the need. Is their secondary that bad or was the problem that they didn't get a lot of help from their front seven?

I guess not if you happen to like Vernon Fox, Jon McGraw, Keith Smith, Terrence Holt and Fernando Bryant. Huff can play either FS or CB, although his best fit IMO is FS, he'd be a HUGE upgrade from Holt.

 
SD needs defense. Their pass D was horrible and Jammer is the worst "#1" CB in the league. Safety is a concern as well. With Their great draft last year they need to continue to get playmakers on D. Their offense was fine although with the switch to Rivers there is concern. But a WR in the 1st isnt going to help that. McCardell has a year or two left, Parker is a solid WR and they still have Vincent Jackson who came on strong at year's end. Health was his issue.

Gates and LT are still their bread and butter.

DBs should be their pick in the 1st. CB or Safety.

 
I thought I read that Huff said he was looking to go to a team that will play him at CB. Although he would be a great addition at FS, I wasn't thinking of him playing there for Detroit. Bly and Bryant make a decent starting combination, but the rest of the guys you mentioned don't strike a lot of fear into opposing offenses. I suppose some new blood would be in order.

 
Too many trades. Won't happen.
Agreed. There are far too many peculiar trades (big leaps that are very unlikely) to be of worth.Looks like you put in a lot of time, which is always admirable, but the insightful value of the mock is minimal because of the crazy trades.

As far as the Bucs trading to 33 and drafting Ashton Youboty when Sinorice Moss is on the board at 23, you're just plain :no: . The Bucs are stocked at CB (Barber, Kelly, Bolden) for the next three years, and don't need to even look at the position until next offseason at the earliest.

And I don't see them drafting Orien Harris. I agree they need DT, but he just doesn't compute there (to me at least).

 
I'll admit some of the trades are "leaps" but if you look at history crazy trades happen all the time. I don't think many would have predicted Cleveland paying an early 2nd to move up one pick, Buffalo giving up a future first for Losman, etc.

Last year the draft day (or in the last few days before the draft) trades in the first two rounds included:

NO/HOU

OAK/SEA

WAS/DEN

DET/TEN

SEA/CAR

NYJ/OAK

BAL/NE

Most of these included multiple picks, some included future year picks, some included players (Jolley) and others had teams moving completely out of early rounds to add picks in later rounds. All that to say that I don't think anything is too crazy in the NFL these days.

As for my mock, the one trade that is probably the biggest "leap" is Minnesota moving up for a QB, but this is the one that I am the most confident in. I can't see Minny trading Culpepper and not trying to replace him early in this draft. With three exceptional QB prospects and with an additional 2nd round pick it almost seems like a gimme.

The NYJ and Hou trade has been discussed at length and isn't too much of a stretch, the only real difference is that I believe they are targeting Bush instead of Leinart. The Denver trade is possible (maybe not with Detroit), but in hindsight I may have been too eager to have them trade just because they have the additional 1st round pick.

The rest of the trade projections are fairly minor and are just teams moving up and down the draft board which tends to happen every year (see above list).

Thanks for the feedback, I'll give it some thought when I do version two.

 
I'll admit some of the trades are "leaps" but if you look at history crazy trades happen all the time. I don't think many would have predicted Cleveland paying an early 2nd to move up one pick, Buffalo giving up a future first for Losman, etc.

Last year the draft day (or in the last few days before the draft) trades in the first two rounds included:

NO/HOU

OAK/SEA

WAS/DEN

DET/TEN

SEA/CAR

NYJ/OAK

BAL/NE

Most of these included multiple picks, some included future year picks, some included players (Jolley) and others had teams moving completely out of early rounds to add picks in later rounds. All that to say that I don't think anything is too crazy in the NFL these days.

As for my mock, the one trade that is probably the biggest "leap" is Minnesota moving up for a QB, but this is the one that I am the most confident in. I can't see Minny trading Culpepper and not trying to replace him early in this draft. With three exceptional QB prospects and with an additional 2nd round pick it almost seems like a gimme.

The NYJ and Hou trade has been discussed at length and isn't too much of a stretch, the only real difference is that I believe they are targeting Bush instead of Leinart. The Denver trade is possible (maybe not with Detroit), but in hindsight I may have been too eager to have them trade just because they have the additional 1st round pick.

The rest of the trade projections are fairly minor and are just teams moving up and down the draft board which tends to happen every year (see above list).

Thanks for the feedback, I'll give it some thought when I do version two.
Compare the sizes and locations of those trade leaps. You have Houston jumping up 10 spots from 33 to 23. That's an amazing leap considering the relative level of talent drop off (very little). The guys between 23 and 53 could go almost anywhere.You've also got moves of like 6 spots (DET/DEN) from 15 to 9, which is amazing for so high in the draft.

The moves you mention are mostly leapfrog moves, not player moves. New Orleans leapfrogged Carolina last year to get the Tackle they wanted.

A much more realistic trade might be Philadelphia leap-frogging Baltimore for Winston Justice or Brodrick Bunkley, or Baltimore leap-frogging Cleveland for Haloti Ngata.

I mean, they all make sense logically, but in a mock draft you have to sell people on the likelihood of the chain of events you describe actually coming to fruition. With every crazy trade you have, it becomes that much more difficult to create an insightful mock.

Can I see Tampa trading down a few spots? Surely. But 10? I don't see that happening just as I don't see Houston trading up that far when they can get a very solid tackle at 33 regardless.

Both sides need to have compelling reasons to trade, and I don't see that in most of your trades, especially in the Tampa/Houston deal (which is just one of a handful I don't like at all).

It more likely to me seems as though you conjured up these baseless trade scenarios just because they sounded cool, rather than actually having a good argument in place first.

Hope this helps.

 
It all helps, much appreciated!

Your spin on it here makes a lot more sense than a generic statement of "too many trades". History has shown that there will be anywhere between 3-8 trades in the first two rounds, so my projection of 6 sits right in the middle.

The comment regarding the number of spots between traded picks though is something that I will definitely consider longer in the next version.

Thanks

 
20. Kansas City Chiefs – Tamba Hali, DE

Call me crazy, but I doubt Hall stays in the top 35 picks come draft day.
:loco: (crazy)Hali won't fall past Denver's later 1st rounder if he falls that far. I personally love the pick for KC, although I would prefer them to trade down and get Gabe Watson.

15. Detroit Lions – Ernie Sims, OLB

(To Detroit - #15 and #61 / To Denver - #9)

The Harrington era is over and the Lions have two new arms in town (Kitna and McCown), so QB is not a pressing need any longer.  Millen makes the picks, but I think Marinelli will have more influence on the type of players that are taken than the previous head coaches.  Sims is undersized but flies to the ball and will fit in to the new defensive schemes that call for speed rather than size.
I don't see the trade down, although Sims is a talent. Not with Justice and Huff on the board. FWIW, it wouldn't totally shock me if they took Davis. They should go D or OL. I do like what you did here though, Whitworth and Sims would fit two needs.
You dont think the 4.8 40 runner, who can't lift 225 20 pounds is a lock to get taken by Denver at 15?
 
Good mock Atomic, my brother and I were just saying the other day that the Panthers might trade down if the price was right. However it would not hurt my feelings if they drafted Lawson.
Thanks, there are about a half dozen teams that I'm really uncertain about and the Panthers are one of them. When it came to their pick, I just couldn't see them reaching for someone and would accept a decent offer to move out of the 1st round.
What about Maroney? They also need a LB, S, and OT. I also think you can cross off Jacobs as they resigned Weinke and still have the kid from Loiusville they drafted last year.
 
It all helps, much appreciated!

Your spin on it here makes a lot more sense than a generic statement of "too many trades". History has shown that there will be anywhere between 3-8 trades in the first two rounds, so my projection of 6 sits right in the middle.

The comment regarding the number of spots between traded picks though is something that I will definitely consider longer in the next version.

Thanks
Your trades rocked! Liked the outside of the box thinking.
 
Thanks Bass!

As far as the Panthers are concerned, what would your order of need be for them this year. RB is an option but I don't think they would invest another first day pick with Foster, Shelton and Goings in the stable.

They can't be serious about Weinke as their long term answer at QB, can they. Delhomme is only 31 so I guess this isn't the biggest need yet. I don't know much about Rutherford.

I had heard that they are planning on moving Davis to LB, so I had ruled out LB as a big need. You are right about the safety spot. It has to be fairly high up on their need list if this move does happen.

I thought OT was pretty solid although there isn't much depth.

 
Thanks Bass!

As far as the Panthers are concerned, what would your order of need be for them this year. RB is an option but I don't think they would invest another first day pick with Foster, Shelton and Goings in the stable.

They can't be serious about Weinke as their long term answer at QB, can they. Delhomme is only 31 so I guess this isn't the biggest need yet. I don't know much about Rutherford.

I had heard that they are planning on moving Davis to LB, so I had ruled out LB as a big need. You are right about the safety spot. It has to be fairly high up on their need list if this move does happen.

I thought OT was pretty solid although there isn't much depth.
Shelton may be tossed on the trash heap. They want a bigger back, could possibly bring Davis back. Hard to say, but RB is an option.OL: Mitchell and Reyes are are unrestricted FAs. Wharton isn't that good. This is a huge need. Like you said, they have no depth.

LB: They cut Short and Witherspoon is gone. Davis will fill one spot, but Morgan can be counted on to miss four games. This position is likely their biggest need.

DB: McCree is gone, Wesley, Branch, and Bashir are FAs. No huge losses, but they'll need warm bodies. This position has never been high up the Panthers priority list.

Really I see bpa at either OT, LB, S, or RB.

The Panthers don't need a long term answer at QB. Delhomme is good for 3-4 years. Weinke looked good in the Detriot comeback win and will be fine as a back up. The Panthers won't keep 4 QBs so I don't expect them to burn a second on someone who might get cut.

Code:
Will Witherspoon LB UFA CAR STL 4 [link] DeShaun Foster RB TRN CAR CAR 4 [link] Chris Weinke QB UFA CAR CAR 2 . Rod Gardner WR UFA CAR GB 2 [link] Marlon McCree DB UFA CAR SD 3 [link] Dante Wesley DB UFA CAR CHI 2 [link] Jeff Mitchell OL UFA CAR . 4 . Jason Baker P UFA CAR . 3 . Brentson Buckner DL UFA CAR . 3 . Ricky Manning Jr. DB RFA CAR . 3 . Ricky Proehl WR UFA CAR . 2 . Mike Seidman TE RFA CAR . 2 . Idrees Bashir DB UFA CAR . 2 . Colin Branch DB RFA CAR . 2 . Stephen Davis RB UFA CAR . 2 . Todd Fordham OL UFA CAR . 2 . Brandon Short LB UFA CAR . 2 . Tutan Reyes OL UFA CAR . 2 . Vinny Ciurciu LB RFA CAR . 2 . Kindal Moorehead DL RFA CAR . 2 . Rod Smart RB UFA CAR . 1 . Matt Hill OL UFA CAR . 1 . Kemp Rasmussen DL UFA CAR . 1 .
 
The Saints are in love with M. Williams, so I see him going to N.O. I like the Minnesota trade
Why? How do you know this?Which one of Will Smith and Charles Grant would they want to send to the bench?

And why? Both are very good pass rushers and above average DEs in the NFL, who are both making pretty good money.

So much so that they let former Pro Bowler Darren Howard walk with no compensation.

 
Shelton may be tossed on the trash heap. They want a bigger back, could possibly bring Davis back. Hard to say, but RB is an option.
since when is a 6'1 246lb RB small.... :confused:
 
The Rams drafted a CB in the 2nd, a S in the 3rd, and a S in the 4th last year. In FA, they signed Chavous to replace Archuleta plus Brown to probably start at CB. Their best CB (Butler) will be back after missing the entire year with an injury.

So, why do you have them drafting not only Huff in the 1st, but also Bing in the 2nd?

 
Why would the 49ers pass on Huff to trade down, just to trade back up and get Jimmy williams? Makes absolutely no sense.

 
Shelton may be tossed on the trash heap.  They want a bigger back, could possibly bring Davis back.  Hard to say, but RB is an option.
since when is a 6'1 246lb RB small.... :confused:
If Shelton is cut, who's the 6'1" 246lb on the roster?
Why would they cut him? They just drafted him in the 2nd round last year and he hasn't seen the field. They will at least give him a shot.
 
Word around the panthers is that Shelton couldnt pick up the blitz to save his life and they didnt even let him play in the preseason much due to this. They didnt want any of the qbs getting hurt. whether he can improve on this remains to be seen. all in all not one of the best panthers drafts last year.

 
I was really enjoying the mock until I read Dallas taking a WR in the first. 

There is no doubt that Dallas needs more youth at WR.  Jackson is the top rated WR in the draft.  But as long as Parcells is in control (or at least has a major say), there's no way in hell that Dallas drafts a WR in the first.

So what this means is that if Dallas takes a WR, it is later on in the draft.  Parcells firmly believes you can find good WRs late.  And early WRs have a high bust rate, according to Tuna.

What Tuna does have a strong propensity to do is draft Defensive front seven guys in the first.  His teams have drafted there more often in the first than any other positions. 

The current Dallas team has needs at OLB and NT in the front seven.  I don't think there is value at NT at 18.  So that leaves OLB.  At 18, Lawson and Carpenter are still on your board and are the most likely draft candidates for Dallas. 

Lawson, in particular, would make an exceptional bookend to Ware.  Both of these guys pose a substantial threat to an offense.  That would make teams guess which of these two beasts is blitzing on every particular down.  That threat really opens up a lot of options for the Dallas defense to cause confusion and chaos.  And thats why I think Dallas goes OLB at 18, with Lawson being #1 on the list of candidates.

It fits the combination of value, need, and historical tendencies.  In contrast, WR only has need and perhaps value.  It goes in total contravention of historical tendencies.
I started this draft a week ago and kept stalling between Baltimore and Dallas. The talent level drops and the needs of most of the teams in this range is questionable. If there was a decent 3-4 DT available I would have definitely gone in that direction. Lawson was my only other option as I'm not really sold on Carpenter that high.Thanks for the feedback. Lawson just may be the guy for the Cowboys when I do version 2.
I respect Ridgelake's opinions regarding the Cowboys and agree that WR is probably not the direction they go in the first. I actually expect them to trade down in the first. When it comes to historical tendencies, both JJ and BP have been known to trade down. I'm not sure who would want to trade up but if someone does (Indy-D. Williams?), I can see Dallas moving down to the late first and picking up a third. Then taking one of Lawson, Carpenter (my preference), McNeill, Winston, Scott, Watson or a FS.
 
Too many trades. Won't happen.
You are probably right, although it seems like more because they are noted a few times. The thing that I find most interesting is that two of the trades involve Houston and three involve SF.I can really see both of these teams doing a lot of moving around. Both teams know they don't have a chance and doing much damage this year and should seriously consider adding multiple players in what is shaping up as a very deep draft for talent.

There are "only" six trades. Anyone know off hand how many trades there are on average within the first two rounds?
You've got three trades in the top 10, including a huge trade to the 1.01 slot. Not saying it won't happen, but it would be very memorable first day.
 
I like this mock. Good job. I'd love to see the Lions trade down, and having them take a LB is spot on. OL, LB, and secondary are their biggest needs and if Winston Justice is gone then their best options would be to draft Huff or to trade down.

 
36. Green Bay Packers – Kelly Jennings, CB

A typical Thompson reach. The Pack could also go for OG David Joseph.

What means this? Are you refering to Nick Collins?

 
I actually expect them to trade down in the first. When it comes to historical tendencies, both JJ and BP have been known to trade down. I'm not sure who would want to trade up but if someone does (Indy-D. Williams?), I can see Dallas moving down to the late first and picking up a third. Then taking one of Lawson, Carpenter (my preference), McNeill, Winston, Scott, Watson or a FS.
Trollmonger, I agree. Dallas would love to trade down. I have been trying to figure out with whom. You pegged my most likely target with Indy going after DeAngelo. Really, the only positions that are likely to elicit a trade down offer are the RBs. No other position would represent value at 18.
 
I actually expect them to trade down in the first. When it comes to historical tendencies, both JJ and BP have been known to trade down. I'm not sure who would want to trade up but if someone does (Indy-D. Williams?), I can see Dallas moving down to the late first and picking up a third. Then taking one of Lawson, Carpenter (my preference), McNeill, Winston, Scott, Watson or a FS.
Trollmonger, I agree. Dallas would love to trade down. I have been trying to figure out with whom. You pegged my most likely target with Indy going after DeAngelo. Really, the only positions that are likely to elicit a trade down offer are the RBs. No other position would represent value at 18.
I like DeAngelo, but think he would be a bad fit in Indy. He's not much of a receiver like Edge or power back like the Colts need to be able to pound the ball in during the playoffs. If it's to get Lendale then I can see it.
 
Word around the panthers is that Shelton couldnt pick up the blitz to save his life and they didnt even let him play in the preseason much due to this. They didnt want any of the qbs getting hurt. whether he can improve on this remains to be seen. all in all not one of the best panthers drafts last year.
He was a rookie, give the guy a break. He's certainly got the size so there's no reason he can't get the job done physically so he just need to work on his blitz recognition.
 
The Saints are in love with M. Williams, so I see him going to N.O. I like the Minnesota trade
Why? How do you know this?Which one of Will Smith and Charles Grant would they want to send to the bench?

And why? Both are very good pass rushers and above average DEs in the NFL, who are both making pretty good money.

So much so that they let former Pro Bowler Darren Howard walk with no compensation.
As good as Mario is, there's no way the Saints draft a DE (their strongest position) with all the needs they have - including someone to help prevent Brees from reinjuring his shoulder.
 

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