Attempting to decode R.B.B.C. - Part I (1 Viewer)

[FantasyTrader]

NFL coaches these days are leaving themselves with more and more options at Running Back to fulfill their every whim on Sundays. It's too bad that 9 times out of 10, Fantasy Football owners don't have the same luxury. Unless your league employs team rushing in it's scoring we find ourselves in the unenviable position of trying to locate the cog in the committee which will perform best over the course of an NFL season on DraftDay. Now, before we attempt to decode this little riddle, we need to put a definition on it. After pouring over stats and looking at the various carry distribution of all 32 NFL teams during the 2006 regular season I've come up with a definition for the purpose of this article: "A TRUE Running Back by Committee is formed whenever an NFL coach chooses to give meaningful rushing attempts to more than one Running Back over the course of an average season."

The reason I included "chooses" in our definition above is that on a handful of occasions more than one running back received significant touches because the starter missed a good portion of the season due to injury - which is NOT a R.B.B.C.

I also decided we need to place a value on "meaningful rushing attempts" in our definition as well. I chose a ratio of 3:1 as being meaningful. Why 3:1 instead of 4:1...or 2:1? Well, while I was looking over the '06 stats - there were four NFL teams who were very close to this ratio which did not include significant injuries to any of the starters. The Falcons, Browns, Giants and Eagles were all fairly close to this 3:1 benchmark. And in my opinion, you'd have a difficult time making a case for Dunn/Norwood, Droughns/Jason Wright, Tiki/Brandon Jacobs and Westbrook/Buckhalter being RBBC's in '06. Yeah, a case can be made for Brandon Jacobs and Tiki but is there anyone out there who can honestly say they could see Jacobs eating into Tiki Barber's touches in 2007 if it weren't for Barber's retirement? And you certainly cannot make a case for Norwood, Jason Wright and Buckhalter having DEFINATIVELY put a dent in the production of Dunn, Droughns and Westbrook. It's certainly something that is debatable, but when you look at the stats chart below, I think we can all agree that a 3:1 ratio would be pretty close.

Okay, now that we have our definition of what a RBBC looks like in the stat book, let's take a look at the top two rushing attempt leaders for all 32 NFL teams. Any team whose backup broke our 3:1 ratio is in BOLD and deserves a closer look...

Arizona: Edge - 337 attempts

Shipp - 17 attempts

Atlanta: Dunn -286 attempts

Norwood - 99 attempts

Baltimore: Lewis - 314 attempts

Anderson - 39 attempts

Buffalo: McGahee - 259 attempts

A. Thomas - 107 attempts

Carolina: Foster - 227 attempts

Williams - 121 attempts

Chicago: T. Jones - 296 attempts

Benson - 157 attempts

Cincinnati: Johnson - 341 attempts

Watson - 25 attempts

Cleveland: Droughns - 220 attempts

Joe Wright - 62 attempts

Dallas: J. Jones - 267 attempts

Barber - 135 attempts

Denver: T. Bell - 233 attempts

M. Bell - 157 attempts

Detroit: K. Jones - 181 attempts

A. Harris - 49 attempts

Green Bay: Green - 266 attempts

Morency - 91 attempts

Texans: Dayne - 151 attempts

Lundy - 124 attempts

Indianapolis: Addai - 226 attempts

Rhodes - 187 attempts

Jacksonville: Taylor - 231 attempts

Jones-Drew - 166 attempts

Kansas City: Johnson - 416 attempts

Bennett - 36 attempts

Miami: Brown - 241 attempts

Morris - 92 attempts

Minnesota: C. Taylor - 303 attempts

Pinner - 43 attempts

New Orleans: McAllister - 244 attempts

Bush - 155 attempts

New England: Dillon - 199 attempts

Maroney - 175 attempts

NYG: Barber - 327 attempts

Jacobs - 96 attempts

NYJ: L. Washington - 151 attempts

Barlow - 131 attempts

Oakland: Fargas - 178 attempts

Jordan - 114 attempts

Philadelphia: Westbrook - 240 attempts

Buckhalter - 83 attempts

Pittsburgh: Parker - 337 attempts

Davenport - 60 attempts

San Diego: Tomlinson - 348 attempts

Turner - 80 attempts

Seattle: Alexander - 252 attempts

Morris - 161 attempts

San Francisco: Gore - 312 attempts

Robinson - 38 attempts

St. Louis: Jackson - 346 attempts

S. Davis - 40 attempts

Tampa Bay: Williams - 225 attempts

Pittman - 50 attempts

Tennessee: Henry - 273 attempts

L. White - 61 attempts

Washington: Betts - 245 attempts

Portis - 127 attempts

*Note: M. Vick and V. Young were actually 2nd in rushing attempts, however Quarterback attempts are not applicable for this article's discussion.

So 18 NFL teams had their backup running back break the 3:1 ratio for carries. Next, we need to throw out any of these teams whose distribution of carries was impacted by a major injury to the starter.

Buffalo Bills - Anthony Thomas had 67 of his 107 rushing attempts in weeks 9-11 while McGahee was injured.

GreenBay Packers - Morency BARELY squeaked inside of the 3:1 ratio but when you consider 26 of his attempts came in week 4 while Ahman was on the shelf, this disqualifies the Pack for our RBBC discussion.

Miami Dolphins - When you factor in that 57 of Morris' attempts came in weeks 13-15 while Ronnie Brown was out with a broken hand, it's easy to see that this was no R.B.B.C. choice.

Seattle Seahawks - Maurice Morris had a whopping 114 of his 161 attempts in '06 while Alexander was dealing with the broken foot. If Alexander stays healthy there's no way Morris gets more than a fourth of the 'Hawks rushing attempts.

Washington Redskins - 193 of Betts' 245 attempts came after Portis was shelved for the season in week 10. When healthy, Portis is the workhorse for this offense.

Philadelphia Eagles - For the purpose of this article, I'm also throwing out Philly. In reality, Buckhalter DID break the 3:1 ratio for Philly to qualify, but two things are notable. Westbrook missed week 4 in which Buchalter had a season high 11 carries. Also, Westbrook led the Eagles in receptions with 77 on the season. Now I realize we aren't taking RB receptions into account anywhere else in this article, but when you combine both of those factors together it's easy to see that Westbrook was the "workhorse" (albeit a bit of an unconventional workhorse) for Philly and when he's healthy is not in serious jeapordy of losing touches to Buckhalter.

Okay! Now we're starting to get somewhere. That leaves us with 12 NFL teams who "willingly" gave more than one RB "significant" carries in 2006.

In Part II of this series, I'm going to group these RBBC's by similar characteristics and try to sort out who you should target on Draft Day in your fantasy league when faced with having to dive into the RBBC pool.

When I post Part III, armed with the information of what a R.B.B.C. looks like, I'll be making some early predictions about the 2007 season that might help you make those borderline calls come draft day.

Thanks for taking the time!

FantasyTrader

 

[Monty Burns]

Nice....looking forward to your followups....

 

[Floyd The Barber]

Very, very nice...

I agree with you throwing Philly out (for now barring a Corey Dillon signing), but I disagree with not including the Redskins. Ladell Betts is not going to go quietly into the night.

And that said, there may be enough work for both he and Portis. I could easily see 180+ carries for Betss and 300 for Portis, making Portis Top 10 and Betts Top 25 among RBs. Not unlike what would have happened under OC Al Saunders in Kansas City when the Priest and Larry Johnson were killing it together.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Thanks guys.

Floyd - I agree with your Redskins thoughts. Judging how Betts ran so well post-Portis injury lasy year, I coud easily see his workload increase in an attempt to keep Portis healthy. Hindsight and all that...

But the Part I focus was JUST on '06 - had Portis not been injured, I doubt Betts would have been involved enough to make it a committee. Solid point though - for '07 Betts has probably earned a much more significant role.

 

[H.K.]

In Part II of this series, I'm going to group these RBBC's by similar characteristics and try to sort out who you should target on Draft Day in your fantasy league when faced with having to dive into the RBBC pool. When I post Part III, armed with the information of what a R.B.B.C. looks like, I'll be making some early predictions about the 2007 season that might help you make those borderline calls come draft day.

Good read, when can we expect the next two parts? You're not going to make us wait until after the draft, are you?

 

[FantasyTrader]

No no. It'll be quick. I'll post part II later this afternoon and Part III Monday morning prolly.

 

[Horrorshow]

No no. It'll be quick. I'll post part II later this afternoon and Part III Monday morning prolly.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

No no. It'll be quick. I'll post part II later this afternoon and Part III Monday morning prolly.

Looking forward to this in comparison to my efforts on RBBC.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Looking forward to the next 2 parts.

And WELCOME to the Shark Pool and FBG's!

 

[FFdork]

That's a good post #1 right there.

 

[Family Matters]

FantasyTrader,

Welcome and a great start to your contributions in the Shark Pool. I'm looking forward to more. You made some great observations. I hadn't looked at how may injuries there were, but it seems like a light year compared to the last few. Lokking forward to your other parts as well.

 

[thecardiackid]

That's a good post #1 right there.

On his behalf... Nice contribution!And what river (in your profile) do you speak of??? Guessing the Blue or Gore Creek.

 

[coolnerd]

You have set your bar pretty high with an initial posting like that.

 

[mightyeskimo]

Very well done Trader! Thanks! Great to have you here!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Welcome.

Good opening thread topic.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Okay! Now we're starting to get somewhere. That leaves us with 12 NFL teams who "willingly" gave more than one RB "significant" carries in 2006.

By my count, the 12 are:Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, New England, New York (A) and Oakland. That's only 11, of course, but I'm guessing the 12th in supposed to be Atlanta. You bolded them, but also wrote earlier that you'd have a difficult case for putting Dunn/Norwood in the RBBC pile.

Good post, and I just wanted to add a couple of quick thoughts. I don't think I'd put Oakland into that RBBC group. Jordan wasn't healthy often, but when he was, he was the main guy. And while Crockett had a handful of carries in the middle of the year, once he went down, Fargas was pretty much the main guy.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/teams/teampage-rai-4.php

I'm not so sure about Carolina, either. While on the surface it looked like RBBC, Williams had 48 of his carries in the 2.5 games Foster missed. Outside of those injury games, the split was 227/73, which falls outside of your 3/1 ratio thing. Foster/Williams only both had double digit carries in the same game twice, and when was when they combined for 49 carries anyway.

Also, checking the game logs, I'm not certain I would call Hou a RBBC either. There were nine games where a RB had 17 or more carries, and 9 games where only one RB had more than five carries. Houston couldn't settle on a RB because their RBs were terrible, which I don't think is a true sign of RBBC.

Looking forward to reading Parts II and III.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Hey - thanks for the kind words everybody. I'm excited to find this place. After trying 5-6 forums before this - FFB is like Grand Central Station compared to everything else! I feel like I've found the promise land - lol!

Good eye Chase. We'll agree to to disagree on most of your points.

I added Oakland because if we look at the carry distribution up to week 12 when Jordan went down last year, Fargas had 89 carries at that point to Jordan's 114. The Raiders were clearly involving Fargas in what would qualify as RBBC long before we tke Jordan's injury into consideration.

The case can be made for Carolina as well, but when I looked at the fact that Foster missed 3 games and DeAngelo missed 2 himself, I just considered the injury factor a wash and took the attempt distribution at face value.

Houston not being able to settle on a RB because they didn't have a true workhorse back is DEFINITELY RBBC. That's often the main reason teams find themselves in the situation of employing more than one RB - 'cuz there is no true workhorse.

I like the fact that you double-checked the stats yourself. It made me go back and reconsider all of the borderline calls.

I'll post Part II in a minute...