Auction Draft Keeper Decisions! HELP!! (1 Viewer)

[Sherlock84]

I am in a auction league that allows 2 offensive keepers (no position limit for keepers. you can keep multiple players at the same position.) It is a 12 team league, a 2-point PPR big day/play league (crazy scoring for big plays or someone who has a monster day. Last year total points had 10 QBs in top 20, 5 WRs in top 20, 5 RBs in top 20). We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, no flex, we also have IDPs. We start with $205 in the auction draft to draft both offensive and defensive players (we DO NOT need a full roster at the end of the draft). If you decide to have keepers it is deducted from that $205 prior to the draft. I have to select TWO keepers between these players, let me know what you think makes the most sense!! We can trade prior to the draft for auction dollars if able.

Christian McCaffrey - $60
Austin Ekeler - $60
Ja'Marr Chase - $60
Stefon Diggs - $60
Calvin Ridley - $1
JK Dobbins - $4

 

[Gally]

What do players usually go for in the auction? By that I am asking if you let CMC, Ekeler, Chase, Diggs into the draft are they going over $60? Trying to get a gage for the pricing in the auction which will help with the decision.

At first glance I would keep Dobbins and Chase and hope to get CMC/Ekeler/Equal for cheaper than $60

 

[Sherlock84]

What do players usually go for in the auction? By that I am asking if you let CMC, Ekeler, Chase, Diggs into the draft are they going over $60? Trying to get a gage for the pricing in the auction which will help with the decision.

At first glance I would keep Dobbins and Chase and hope to get CMC/Ekeler/Equal for cheaper than $60

Funny you ask...unfortunately this is the first year we are doing the auction draft (we have done snake draft for over 20 years), so I dont have that kind of information yet. Hence, why I am asking for some help (I know every auction room is different and I wont know what type of room I have until I am in the midst of it). We converted what would have been the round a player would have been kept in to a dollar amount based on reviewing other auction drafts. With all that being said, I am confident that I would be able to get those players for around $50-60.

 

[Gally]

everyone will be guessing. should make it like the wild west with bids flying all over the place.

I probably keep Chase and Dobbins and go from there.

 

[Vikes Fan]

Chase and Ridley. Ridley has too much potential value to not keep for $1.

 

[tcrausch]

Have to keep Ridley at a dollar. I am looking at regression for Ekeler with age and new OC who historically throws to rbs less. CMC was awesome after trade. Chase dependent on an already banged up Burrow. I'm in for CMC and Ridley.

 

[ZWK]

Ridley ($1) & Dobbins ($4)

Mainly you want to look at what a guy would cost at auction vs. how much he costs to keep. If the other guys are going to go for around $60 (or less!) at auction then you wouldn't be getting any value by keeping them for $60.

 

[Gally]

Mainly you want to look at what a guy would cost at auction vs. how much he costs to keep. If the other guys are going to go for around $60 (or less!) at auction then you wouldn't be getting any value by keeping them for $60.

I think "value" is thrown around too much in keeper talk especially in leagues with very few keepers. I would usually rather keep the better players in a keep 1 or 2 player league. In this particular case I think Dobbins is good enough behind CMC/Ekeler for the price difference as the 2nd keeper. I also don't want to take unnecessary risk for a league with this few keepers which is why I crossed Ridley off my choices. Chase is the safe play and Dobbins is so much under the other RB's in price without being that far behind if he hits his ceiling that the combo makes sense for me to keep.

 

[DarinB300]

I would consider Ridley & Dobbins, as this leaves you with a good amount $$ to start your draft. Worse case, you still spend $120 on 2 of those guys, but now have a solid group of 4 to build around during the rest of the draft. No wrong or right approach, when it comes to auctions. Really like a player, then spend & get them. Want to hold your $$ until the 1st wave of high end players go & see who has what left? I like that strategy as well. Good luck on your draft & let us know how it goes.

 

[Sherlock84]

You guys have literally gone through all the scenarios I thought of, lol! I initiallly had Dobbins/Ridley due to the "value." Then I changed it to CMC/Ridley. Then I decided on Chase/Ridley. I am not a huge fan of Dobbins to be honest (trying to trade for a few extra auction dollars currently). Ridley has a lot of questions surrounding him, but I am high on him myself. I will keep Ridley for sure.

When I do the math, I could keep Dobbins/Ridley for $5 total. Then I could go after 3 top players in the $50-$60 range for a total of about $155-$185.

But then I think I can keep Chase/Ridley for a total of $61. I want to get another WR for $50-$60 and a top RB for $50-$60. This would be a total of $161-$181. Ill still end up with three top players. Then getting my 2nd RB or WR around the $20-$25 range. Im okay with getting the 10-12th range QB for less than $5.

Im also thinking I can keep CMC/Ridley for a total of $61. I want to get two top WR for $50-$60 OR another top running back and WR for $50-$60 each. This would be a total of $161-$181. Ill still end up with three top players. Then getting my 2nd RB or WR around the $20-$25 range. Im okay with getting the 10-12th range QB for less than $5.

THE OTHER CAVEAT is that the price of the keepers will increase (the triples, max of $15 increase) next year. So if Ridley pops, then he will be like a $3 keeper in 2024.

In the end, it is really just preference and a prayer that the auction will go like I hope with top players going in the $50-$60 range.

Thanks for everyone's input so far!! Hopefully will get some more input.

 

[dkp993]

My main league has been an auction keeper not to dissimilar from yours for coming up on a 10yrs. Pretty easy decision imo. Ridley and JK have the most value per dollar by along shot. Stacking value with keepers is the name of the game.

 

[Gally]

My main league has been an auction keeper not to dissimilar from yours for coming up on a 10yrs. Pretty easy decision imo. Ridley and JK have the most value per dollar by along shot. Stacking value with keepers is the name of the game.

I think that is true when you are keeping many players. But I disagree when it is one or two guys. I would rather get quality players and only go to the value as a tie break for equal players or if the value is so drastic (but still for a top quality player).

I am not a Ridley believer so that may be why I don't think he is the choice over Chase. I rather go with the sure thing even with that price difference when we are talking about two total keepers.

 

[dkp993]

My main league has been an auction keeper not to dissimilar from yours for coming up on a 10yrs. Pretty easy decision imo. Ridley and JK have the most value per dollar by along shot. Stacking value with keepers is the name of the game.

I think that is true when you are keeping many players. But I disagree when it is one or two guys. I would rather get quality players and only go to the value as a tie break for equal players or if the value is so drastic (but still for a top quality player).

I am not a Ridley believer so that may be why I don't think he is the choice over Chase. I rather go with the sure thing even with that price difference when we are talking about two total keepers.

Agreed IF there is some value there, but he says the top guys likely go in that range so he could likely just acquire them back on draft day. Ridley (regardless of whether he returns to a top player) is certainly a value and no risk proposition at 1$. And the upside if he hits is paid back over multiple years.

 

[Gally]

Agreed IF there is some value there, but he says the top guys likely go in that range so he could likely just acquire them back on draft day.

Maybe. There is also some value in knowing your finances (especially with high dollar players) so you can adjust accordingly. There have been auctions where I try to save money for a marquee guy like Chase only to pass up on other values during the auction and end up in a less than ideal situation. I have also just bitten the bullet and kept the high priced guy knowing what I spent on him and not having to save money to ensure I wasn't outbid. I have found that in most instances knowing the price on the high guys allows a more solid plan and has turned out better for me.......especially with so few keepers.

 

[dkp993]

Agreed IF there is some value there, but he says the top guys likely go in that range so he could likely just acquire them back on draft day.

Maybe. There is also some value in knowing your finances (especially with high dollar players) so you can adjust accordingly. There have been auctions where I try to save money for a marquee guy like Chase only to pass up on other values during the auction and end up in a less than ideal situation. I have also just bitten the bullet and kept the high priced guy knowing what I spent on him and not having to save money to ensure I wasn't outbid. I have found that in most instances knowing the price on the high guys allows a more solid plan and has turned out better for me.......especially with so few keepers.

The beauty of the auction leagues, everyone gets to do it the way they want!

 

[Gally]

Agreed IF there is some value there, but he says the top guys likely go in that range so he could likely just acquire them back on draft day.

Maybe. There is also some value in knowing your finances (especially with high dollar players) so you can adjust accordingly. There have been auctions where I try to save money for a marquee guy like Chase only to pass up on other values during the auction and end up in a less than ideal situation. I have also just bitten the bullet and kept the high priced guy knowing what I spent on him and not having to save money to ensure I wasn't outbid. I have found that in most instances knowing the price on the high guys allows a more solid plan and has turned out better for me.......especially with so few keepers.

The beauty of the auction leagues, everyone gets to do it the way they want!

Totally. That is what makes it so great. I don't think I stated it very well but my point was that sometimes spending the money early and knowing what you have has a bigger value than hoping to get a deal and then getting screwed in some way because of it.

 

[dkp993]

Agreed IF there is some value there, but he says the top guys likely go in that range so he could likely just acquire them back on draft day.

Maybe. There is also some value in knowing your finances (especially with high dollar players) so you can adjust accordingly. There have been auctions where I try to save money for a marquee guy like Chase only to pass up on other values during the auction and end up in a less than ideal situation. I have also just bitten the bullet and kept the high priced guy knowing what I spent on him and not having to save money to ensure I wasn't outbid. I have found that in most instances knowing the price on the high guys allows a more solid plan and has turned out better for me.......especially with so few keepers.

The beauty of the auction leagues, everyone gets to do it the way they want!

Totally. That is what makes it so great. I don't think I stated it very well but my point was that sometimes spending the money early and knowing what you have has a bigger value than hoping to get a deal and then getting screwed in some way because of it.

For sure. Just a few years ago I kept Kelce at a high dollar amount, and likely equal to what he would have gone for, just to secure the asset (and advantage he provides) and piece of mind so I understand the thought process. With the options here that’s not the route I would take but do see the logic.

 

[Sherlock84]

Agreed IF there is some value there, but he says the top guys likely go in that range so he could likely just acquire them back on draft day.

Maybe. There is also some value in knowing your finances (especially with high dollar players) so you can adjust accordingly. There have been auctions where I try to save money for a marquee guy like Chase only to pass up on other values during the auction and end up in a less than ideal situation. I have also just bitten the bullet and kept the high priced guy knowing what I spent on him and not having to save money to ensure I wasn't outbid. I have found that in most instances knowing the price on the high guys allows a more solid plan and has turned out better for me.......especially with so few keepers.

The beauty of the auction leagues, everyone gets to do it the way they want!

Totally. That is what makes it so great. I don't think I stated it very well but my point was that sometimes spending the money early and knowing what you have has a bigger value than hoping to get a deal and then getting screwed in some way because of it.

For sure. Just a few years ago I kept Kelce at a high dollar amount, and likely equal to what he would have gone for, just to secure the asset (and advantage he provides) and piece of mind so I understand the thought process. With the options here that’s not the route I would take but do see the logic.

I do think the "unknown" (since this is our first auction draft) does scare me a bit. There are some guys in my league that will likely not go much higher than the recommended amounts (which will be good for my strategy of trying to get top players from $50-$60). However, there are few people that I KNOW will bid things up just to bid things up, and will not mind overpaying for the top players left.