Those are wild projections!

What's your methodology?

What's fascinating is that the projections aren't my crazy thoughts, they're the standard FBG projections, but without arbitrary deflation of the true auction value for the players by the VBD app (more on that below). For an example league, Rice is scoring 339 points for the year, McGahee is scoring 171. The methodology is pretty much basic VBD, but without the secret formulae.

**Go adjust Rice in the current VBD app under the RB projection sheet to have 50 TDs, recalculate the auction values, and note that Rice's value will not change even though he's scoring an extra several hundred points for the year**. The VBD app artificially adjusts the true value of the top players downward, when it should only be using the player projections to determine value.

I set position-specific baselines based on where players don't have any real value (i.e., when projected points start to flatten out compared to other players, and accounting for league details like number of teams, roster requirements, etc). For this league, the total of all points above the established position-specific baselines is ~4200. Those are the players that have value, and the other players are dime-a-dozen types that I don't want to pay more to get. I'm happy playing matchups with the "scraps". The total available auction dollars for this 12 team league with $200 auction cap is $2400. Therefore, each point above baseline is worth approximately $0.57 ($2400/4200 points).

[*]Rice and Foster are each about 170 fantasy points above RB#24 baseline (McGahee). Reminder that this example uses FBG projections, not any crazy off-the-wall projections. If you start Foster at RB every week, he'll score 170 points more than a nearly free RB like McGahee (or the 8 other RBs right after McGahee that are all within 1 point per game). Over 10 ppg is huge. Rice and Foster are huge aberrations to the normal auction value curve. They are crazy valuable if they live up to their projections. Rodgers is the next nearest, but a full 34 points less valuable than either of them compared to his QB baseline.

[*]Rodgers is 136 fantasy points above QB#12 baseline (Roeth). There's a 20 point drop from RG3 (QB#11) to Roeth, which is why the baseline is set there, and the next 8 QBs are all within 20 points of Roeth, so Roeth has no effective value. In a start 2QB league, the baseline would be set much lower and Roeth would definitely have value.

[*]McCoy 130 above RB baseline.

[*]Calvin 120 above WR#32 baseline (Garcon). Next 9 WRs after Garcon are within 1 ppg. The WR that's 9 spots above Garcon is a full 2 ppg better. In this league, it doesn't make sense to put any significant value on a player like WR#33 Santonio Holmes, as he isn't a quality starter, and there are literally a dozen players within about one point per game from a projection standpoint. The accuracy in projections isn't there to give WR#33 much value over someone like WR#36 Crabtree or WR#40 Boldin, and the weekly matchups have greater variation that impacts who should play that week than the average projection accuracy anyway.

[*]In this league, Kicker baseline is K#4 and DST is at #7.

Running the math you get:

Foster $98

Rice $97

Rodgers $78

McCoy $74

Calvin $68

VBD is the right principle, but the VBD app is flawed, so I run it all by spreadsheet. You can also simply adjust your baseline to reflect your level of risk (i.e., shallow baselines = higher risk on fewer players). I used to use a two line fit for projections (somewhere there's an article published on FBG with the details of that system), but changing to custom baselining each position is much simpler. I can send you the spreadsheet if you want. This year, I ran out of time writing an article for FBG, but it'll be there for next year.