Auction rules of thumb (1 Viewer)

[CalBear]

My main league auction is coming up this weekend; I want to remind myself of how to succeed in an auction format.

Stay flexible. Go in with a plan, but be willing to change it based on how the auction is flowing.
Focus on value. If you get value with every pick, you will come out ahead of your competitors.
Focus on starters. Most of your money should be allocated to starters and key backups. Don't fill up your roster with marginal backups, even if you get them at good value.
Let yourself cheat on value, once. If there's one player you really want or need, be willing to spend an extra couple of bucks. But don't do this more than once.
Don't enforce value on players you don't want. At some point in the auction, someone will be winning an auction on a player you don't want, but you think should be more expensive. Let him win it. Getting stuck with players you don't want is a good way to screw up your auction plan.
Be patient. The best value in auctions usually comes after 60-80 players have gone off the board, when most teams have filled out their starting lineups, but there are still good players available. Try to save some money for that point in the auction.
Be aggressive, when appropriate. Sometimes the first pick or two of the auction go for well under expected value. Trust your preparation and win that first auction if it looks like value.What else do ya got?

 

[butcher boy]

If you have an early nomination, nominate Randy Moss or another great, non-RB first. Moss was the first player nominated in my auction this weekend and I got him for $24 which was $20 less than what I had him valued at. Early in the auction people are saving their $$$ for the stud running backs so you can capitalize by throwing a non-RB out there and probably get great value.

Sure enough, the player after Moss was Adrian Peterson, and he went for $55.

 

[massraider]

Keep track of everyone else's money. Know their needs. This is actually my number 1 rule.

 

[mudshark]

Excellent points, but I want add to #2. While value picks are important, it doesn't guarantee the best team. You can have a roster loaded with value and be a middle-of-road team. If you see the top players disappearing, you may need to overspend for a stud or two.

Saw a couple of examples of #5 yesterday. Some owners got stuck with players they didn't need just because they were trying to run up the price on a player.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Value is overrated. Get good players. You don't get points for value during the season.

 

[Gravedigger]

Rule #5 is tricky.

Pay attention to HOW people auction. Most have a style. Many owners will bid quickly on players that are not near their value just to move things along, then slow down as they start thinking about how much they really want to spend. Be CAREFUL, but if someone seems consistent in their style, take advantage of it. Bumping up 5 guys an extra $2 is almost like putting $ directly into your account. You can get burned, so don't do this with players that would screw your team. This also goes hand in hand with tracking others needs and money and knowing what teams some owners have a thing for. If a guy doesn't have a RB yet, and things are getting thin, make him pay a bit. He'll likely be willing to overpay just to have a guy to start.

Dangerous, but if you gain skill at it, you'll find that it doesn't take much to see a positive impact on your own team.

I love the 'over pay ONCE' rule. I've seen many owners refuse to get what their team needed just because their cheatsheet said so.

Good stuff CalBear.

 

[Big Sug]

keep track of whether your auction is running "over value" or "under value."

you can do this by comparing what players are coming off the board for and what you have them valued at on your cheatsheet and keeping a cumulative total.

e.g., a typical notation would be "Adrian Peterson $55 (+9)."

this requires having a very good cheatsheet that you've put a lot of work into, and the numbers on said sheet should add up to the exact amount of money available in the leaguewide draft budget.

If the draft is running "over value" you sit back and wait, the bargains will come to you. If the draft is running "under value" you should be in there mixing it up.

In my experience, auctions typically run under value for the first couple of picks, over value for the next 20 or 30 picks, and then under value (with sporadic panic overpayments for the last RB's in the top tiers) for the remainder.

 

[CalBear]

Rule #5 is tricky.

Pay attention to HOW people auction. Most have a style. Many owners will bid quickly on players that are not near their value just to move things along, then slow down as they start thinking about how much they really want to spend. Be CAREFUL, but if someone seems consistent in their style, take advantage of it. Bumping up 5 guys an extra $2 is almost like putting $ directly into your account. You can get burned, so don't do this with players that would screw your team. This also goes hand in hand with tracking others needs and money and knowing what teams some owners have a thing for. If a guy doesn't have a RB yet, and things are getting thin, make him pay a bit. He'll likely be willing to overpay just to have a guy to start.

This brings up another one for me:Don't be predictable. I've been auctioning with the same group of people for years now; we have a $100 auction with 25-cent increments. I've been able to do some data mining of past years' auctions to see that auctions are rarely won at $x.25 or $x.75; I'm able to use that data to better predict whether the person I'm bidding against will bid over me or not. I try to adjust my bidding in slightly unpredictable ways so people don't know whether I really want the person I'm bidding on or not.

 

[BigRed]

Good posts all. Generally these are spot on.

 

[CalBear]

Value is overrated. Get good players. You don't get points for value during the season.

Sure, you want good players, but you also have to fill your roster. If you overpay for Tomlinson and Brady they'll represent your entire team; Tomlinson, Brady, and $1 scrubs will not win a championship. Part of the definition of "value" is getting good players, at or below their expected cost.

 

[butcher boy]

Oops forgot this one.

Distract your opposition with booze and strippers. We had a couple of "Wait, who just got bid on?" questions during our draft because people were paying attention to the entertainment instead of the draft.

 

[maxwelledison]

In my experience, auctions typically run under value for the first couple of picks, over value for the next 20 or 30 picks, and then under value (with sporadic panic overpayments for the last RB's in the top tiers) for the remainder.

This has been my experience, too (approx. 30 auctions for 3 sports over 15 years). CalBear great call on overpay for one player. At the end of an auction you will be able to live with the one guy that is 5-20% over valued but to fill that spot through trade or free agency can be tough and limiting.

 

[wolfpackernc]

Generally speaking, this is all excellent advice. But I do think "getting value" and "don't bid up undervalued guys" is contradictory.

Yes, you don't want to get stuck with players. That can cause issues. But remember that if you are getting stuck with guys because you bid on them under value, then at least you have undervalued guys. If you let other owners get bigger bargains because you refuse to be the driver on the bidding, you are letting THEM accumulate value, as opposed to vice-versa.

 

[GregR_2]

My main league auction is coming up this weekend; I want to remind myself of how to succeed in an auction format.

Stay flexible. Go in with a plan, but be willing to change it based on how the auction is flowing.
Focus on value. If you get value with every pick, you will come out ahead of your competitors.
Focus on starters. Most of your money should be allocated to starters and key backups. Don't fill up your roster with marginal backups, even if you get them at good value.
Let yourself cheat on value, once. If there's one player you really want or need, be willing to spend an extra couple of bucks. But don't do this more than once.
Don't enforce value on players you don't want. At some point in the auction, someone will be winning an auction on a player you don't want, but you think should be more expensive. Let him win it. Getting stuck with players you don't want is a good way to screw up your auction plan.
Be patient. The best value in auctions usually comes after 60-80 players have gone off the board, when most teams have filled out their starting lineups, but there are still good players available. Try to save some money for that point in the auction.
Be aggressive, when appropriate. Sometimes the first pick or two of the auction go for well under expected value. Trust your preparation and win that first auction if it looks like value.What else do ya got?

I sort of don't agree with where the general direction some of those seem to be taking (or at least, #4 and #5 in particular).A "strategy" should not be walking in with a list of players that you are going to end up with, which is more the impression I get from those points. The big advantage in doing a draft is that you can go after any players that are there, meaning you always are able to pursue players who end up being good values. Locking into players and/or only limiting yourself to a single player you didn't have on your list is effectively shutting you out of the major advantages of auctioning over drafting.

I think you should walk into an auction with a set of values for what all players should go at. Your strategy should be to try to get as many players below that value as possible while still maintaining good starters. My list would look more like:

Know the values of all players before the auction starts. While other owners wait for the first player(s) to be taken to set the value for the rest of the auction, you'll know who is a good deal from the get go.
Don't be afraid to take any player who is going for less than you value him, so long as he is at a position of need.
Keep an eye on the players still available at a position. This is especially important at positions you still need that have scarcity problems, like RB. Sometimes you will need to overpay a bit just to have good starters. Which leads me to...
If everyone else is overpaying at a position, it is ok for you to overpay as well. If you do not do this at a scarce position like RB, you may find you end up with such bad starters that the money saved isn't enough to make up at other positions for that drop off. But in doing so, your goal is to overpay less than everyone else.
Keep an eye on your roster space and positional needs. I've seen several auctions where teams didn't pay attention to their roster space, and filled up while they still had money left. Always know how many roster slots need to be dedicated to positions to field a starting team and have necessary backups, and how many are flexible spots that can be used as you wish.
Do have an idea of who some players are that you think will be undervalued by other teams, and do take into account that they will come up for bid later and will be good values. But don't lock yourself into not bidding on other players just because you like those guys. Instead you should still bid up other players until the price gets to a point they aren't a better value than your list guys are at the prices you think you can get them.
Do bid up other teams. Do not bid up other teams at positions you don't need unless you are willing to spend that price and the roster spot if you get stuck with him.
Do watch other team's remaining salary cap and roster space. In some cases I have seen teams with more money than me getting close to filling their rosters, which allowed me to wait longer to nominate the guys I wanted until the teams with more cap room than me were out of the auction.
Do be willing to let a team have a player even at a cheap price if him winning the bidding will not significantly help his team (because he already has starters and backups there) and the amount of the bid will hurt him at other positions. To give a real example, David Dodds bid up everyone who bid on a RB in Survivor II about 4 years ago. I was nearly screaming at my computer for people to just let Dodds win a player since he already had multiple RBs, and getting stuck with one more would cripple his cap. Again and again teams bailed him out by bidding one last time. He sucked a lot of money out of teams through this, while if everyone had been willing to let him have another good RB at a modest price it would have committed 80% of his cap to that one position and killed his team. Finally the teams who kept saving him had enough RBs I was able to stick him with Jamal at a value price for Jamal, but still high enough it ruined Dodds team. Dodds was one of the first teams eliminated that year as a result.
This is one of the most important rules there is, and one I learned from watching how Dodds reacted to getting stuck in the previous example. If you over spend at some point and become one of the last place teams in cap space available, STOP SPENDING. Eventually the auction will come back to you as other teams spend, and you will again be in a position of being able to push other teams around with a money advantage.

 

[coolnerd]

Generally speaking, this is all excellent advice. But I do think "getting value" and "don't bid up undervalued guys" is contradictory.Yes, you don't want to get stuck with players. That can cause issues. But remember that if you are getting stuck with guys because you bid on them under value, then at least you have undervalued guys. If you let other owners get bigger bargains because you refuse to be the driver on the bidding, you are letting THEM accumulate value, as opposed to vice-versa.

There is a tricky balance here. There is almost always the guy, who can't stand to see anyone get a player at less than his notion of value. At the end , of the day this guy winds up eating roster spots and money on say 4QBs insead of realizing that his idea of value was inflated for this draft. In a standard 12X15 league, out of the 180 picks you are not going to be the only one who gets value. No, don't let Brady go for 5% of your auction total, but don't be the guy that insists Garrard has to. At the end of the day, you should only really care about your squad i.e. are you getting quality players at good prices.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Value is overrated. Get good players. You don't get points for value during the season.

Sure, you want good players, but you also have to fill your roster. If you overpay for Tomlinson and Brady they'll represent your entire team; Tomlinson, Brady, and $1 scrubs will not win a championship. Part of the definition of "value" is getting good players, at or below their expected cost.

I still think you'll be more successful concentrating on the good player part more than the value part. You made an extreme example. But in my opinion, I've seen way too many teams spend way too much time worrying about value in an auction and missing the good players. Let's say I go into a draft wanting a base of Cutler, Barber, CJ3, Fitzgerald, Cotchery and Marshall. I overpay a decent amount for Cutler. I overpay a lot for CJ3. I overpay a little for Fitzgerald. Barber goes too high, so I pass and get MJD for a little bit of value. I overpay a little for Cotchery, but get Marshall for fair value. So now I have my core. Then I need to look for some decent filler, without overpaying too much, to fill out a team. I get Jason Campbell cheap. I get Zach Miller cheap. I get Gage for fair value. I take a flier on Chris Henry WR. I've got a pretty good team. Value should mainly be a concern when filling out the roster, not when picking your core, within reason. Yet I've seen so many teams stop bidding on players that could make up their core and ending up with lesser core players (like Schaub, Thomas Jones and Burleson) or overspend on the last decent core players left. My opinion is you overpay for your core a bit and then look for value while being willing to overpay for some targeted sleepers.

 

[CalBear]

My opinion is you overpay for your core a bit and then look for value while being willing to overpay for some targeted sleepers.

I think we're basically in agreement. But you can't overpay for everyone; there are only so many dollars you have to work with. That's why I allowed an exception for one player; generally I don't find it difficult to settle the core positions without overpaying, but you're right that occasionally you'll need to break the bank to get a stud RB or whatever. The Staff vs. MB auction last year was extremely competitive, and everyone was paying more for RBs than I was willing to (I think they had their DDs adjusted incorrectly for the most part), but I got a decent lineup while only going above the line for one or two players.

 

[bucsbaby]

When preparing for my recent auction draft I tried to think of my strategy as a combination of draft and auction styles. So, basically I laid out the top 10 RBs and said "I need to have one of these guys, but will try and get the one who represents the best value (whether i have to overpay or not)". Same for every other starting position on my roster.

p.s., At least that was my strategy. Unfortunately, only 1/2 the owners showed up and their automated bidding (they did not preset their amounts) severely overpriced (by as much as 100%+) the top 30-40 players, so some of us sat back for awhile. We ended up short at RB, but stacked at many of the other positions (IDP, 40-man roster).

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

At my auction this weekend, everyone was spending big money to land players normally taken in rounds 1-2. Tomlinson went for 40% cap, Brady went for 25% cap, Fitz went for 20% cap -- you get the picture. In the end, I had to overpay on a few players just to ensure I even had anyone from the first two rounds to anchor my squad. In the past, I was perfectly fine not drafting studs and going all out with depth hoping some would pan out. Unfortunately, that has not achieved good results in terms of making the playoffs. This year, I skipped depth to have a better starting lineup, and will take my chances with backups/waiver players during the season to round out depth.

 

[bucsbaby]

Yeah, that's what I was kind of getting at in my post as well. Basically, you still need a #1 RB, #2 RB, etc. etc. so if everyone is overpaying, I feel like you have to follow suit, within reason.

 

[madd futher]

I participated in my 1st auction draft this weekend- $200 total budget, no min bid. I was well prepared, having made a list with expected range of values for each player as a base point (based on projected fantasy points). This list proved to be an amazingly accurate price predictor.

At any rate, Bush went out 1st at 30 (for PPR league, on the low side of his range) followed by Lynch at 33 (a great bargain), next a guy overpaid for Berrian at $10, and the next guy was LT. Bidding started at $20 and rapidly got to $50 by 5s 2s and 1s. As soon as $50 was bid, I bid $70 - dead silence, folowed by "Is he serious?" followed a few moments later by "SOLD". For the next roughly 60 picks, 27 players were bid out at over my max value range for them, and only 2 were bid under my max value range. I was able to snag Gore at $44, MJD at $36 and C J (Ocho) at $27 all on the low side of pre-set value ranges (again based on my PPR projections.. My point is, I got LT within my value range AND set off a bidding spree in which almost half the players were taken too high.

Problem was - I had spent $177 or almost 90% of my available budget on only 4 players - I had only $23 left to spend for 14 players. On the next 16 players taken, only 6 went outside their value ranges - 3 over, 3 under.

Then came the "value phase' of the draft - in the next 32 players only 1 was bid significantly over the range while 18 came in under their value range. I snagged 3 players here - Favre $2, S Moss $5, and Burleson $4. Now I'm down to $12 left for 9 positions.

I opened my mouth on V Young for $2 (the only time I threw in a bid on someone I didnt want). So it is $10 left for 8 players.

Not to worry - finally came the "cheapie phase" where almost all of the players left were in the $1-3 value range.

I completed my roster as follows: Z Miller $1, Daniels $2, Campbell $1, K Walker $1, C Henry $1, A Hall $2, GB-D $1, Scobee $1.

I felt my plan worked to perfection (sans V Young) and my team looks pretty good.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

My opinion is you overpay for your core a bit and then look for value while being willing to overpay for some targeted sleepers.

I think we're basically in agreement. But you can't overpay for everyone; there are only so many dollars you have to work with. That's why I allowed an exception for one player; generally I don't find it difficult to settle the core positions without overpaying, but you're right that occasionally you'll need to break the bank to get a stud RB or whatever. The Staff vs. MB auction last year was extremely competitive, and everyone was paying more for RBs than I was willing to (I think they had their DDs adjusted incorrectly for the most part), but I got a decent lineup while only going above the line for one or two players.

Very true and I meant to add that your OP was great, no disrespect meant. I just think that if you ask anyone for an auction tip in two words, 95% of people would say "get value". I'd say "great players". Hey, who won that Staff v. MB auction in 2006 anyway?

 

[Chaos Commish]

A "strategy" should not be walking in with a list of players that you are going to end up with, which is more the impression I get from those points. The big advantage in doing a draft is that you can go after any players that are there, meaning you always are able to pursue players who end up being good values. Locking into players and/or only limiting yourself to a single player you didn't have on your list is effectively shutting you out of the major advantages of auctioning over drafting.

There's certainly differing viable approaches. I've been successful (2 wins and a place in the last 5 years) with what you say should not be a strategy; that is, walking in with a list of players I am going to end up with. To me, the ability to do that is what separates auctions from standard drafts. If I draft from the 11 hole. I cannot have Tomlinson. Period. In an auction I can. Period. You can and should target players in auctions. This is what makes auctions superior formats, leveling the playing field by opening the player pool to all. Last year I projected my 25 man roster before the auction and walked away with 18 of them. I've put more research into it this year and expect to get over 20 of my targets. I'm not real interested in valuing every single player. I project them all. I check ADPs and auction values where I can get them, and I become deeply interested in calculating the 25 player/price formula that wins me the highest scoring team for my budget based on my projections and expected pricing. This is specific player/price targeting. I highly advise it if you trust your projections. It takes a little extra effort but ends up simplifying everything, because I don't give a hoot about the value of most players beyond the ceiling set by #1 at each position which sets the table for everything else (generally).

To give an example: Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston seem to be in a tier. Moss will push $40, Wayne 38, Owens probably 37 or 38; Fitzgerald is right there a buck or two behind. Then this "2nd" tier. My projections are different than other people's. I like Colston more than any of them in this tier and as much as Fitz. I tried to trade out of 2.02 to take Colston 7 or 8 picks later, couldn't and took Fitz, but I do value them the same and in an auction, I can target Colston knowing he will go for less than Fitz and not really caring about the rest of these characters. If someone "steals" Smith for a 15% discount, I don't care because I didn't really think he was a steal. I had my roster targeted from my projections and worked a formula that allowed me to hit it. I'm also awake enough to drive Smith's price up a little if it seems to far out of expectations. Of course you also need a back up plan or two, but that all gets worked into the target calculations with some simple if thens.

Much of the advice in this thread reads like it accepts consensus projections and tries to beat them with auction skills. The real secret, I think, is just beating the consensus projections with better ones. Then you don't worry so much about every player's value. You have a good idea of the general thinking, but you target a specific roster designed from the start to beat those projections and that consensus, and of course, maximize the budget.

That's my approach. Nothing else would work for me.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

A "strategy" should not be walking in with a list of players that you are going to end up with, which is more the impression I get from those points. The big advantage in doing a draft is that you can go after any players that are there, meaning you always are able to pursue players who end up being good values. Locking into players and/or only limiting yourself to a single player you didn't have on your list is effectively shutting you out of the major advantages of auctioning over drafting.

There's certainly differing viable approaches. I've been successful (2 wins and a place in the last 5 years) with what you say should not be a strategy; that is, walking in with a list of players I am going to end up with. To me, the ability to do that is what separates auctions from standard drafts. If I draft from the 11 hole. I cannot have Tomlinson. Period. In an auction I can. Period. You can and should target players in auctions. This is what makes auctions superior formats, leveling the playing field by opening the player pool to all. Last year I projected my 25 man roster before the auction and walked away with 18 of them. I've put more research into it this year and expect to get over 20 of my targets. I'm not real interested in valuing every single player. I project them all. I check ADPs and auction values where I can get them, and I become deeply interested in calculating the 25 player/price formula that wins me the highest scoring team for my budget based on my projections and expected pricing. This is specific player/price targeting. I highly advise it if you trust your projections. It takes a little extra effort but ends up simplifying everything, because I don't give a hoot about the value of most players beyond the ceiling set by #1 at each position which sets the table for everything else (generally).

To give an example: Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston seem to be in a tier. Moss will push $40, Wayne 38, Owens probably 37 or 38; Fitzgerald is right there a buck or two behind. Then this "2nd" tier. My projections are different than other people's. I like Colston more than any of them in this tier and as much as Fitz. I tried to trade out of 2.02 to take Colston 7 or 8 picks later, couldn't and took Fitz, but I do value them the same and in an auction, I can target Colston knowing he will go for less than Fitz and not really caring about the rest of these characters. If someone "steals" Smith for a 15% discount, I don't care because I didn't really think he was a steal. I had my roster targeted from my projections and worked a formula that allowed me to hit it. I'm also awake enough to drive Smith's price up a little if it seems to far out of expectations. Of course you also need a back up plan or two, but that all gets worked into the target calculations with some simple if thens.

Much of the advice in this thread reads like it accepts consensus projections and tries to beat them with auction skills. The real secret, I think, is just beating the consensus projections with better ones. Then you don't worry so much about every player's value. You have a good idea of the general thinking, but you target a specific roster designed from the start to beat those projections and that consensus, and of course, maximize the budget.

That's my approach. Nothing else would work for me.

Again, I think that several "time tested" auction strategies are misplaced. This is another one. You SHOULD walk into an auction with a list of guys you want as your core 4-5 guys, with some backups for each guy in case they go too high, and then some sleepers you want. Then you fill in with good value among the backups. For example, if you want to have a sneaky PPR WR, you might have Randle-El, Patten and Walter on your list and take the best value. Or if you want a backup RB you might have Jacob Hester, Rhodes, Booker and Leonard on a list and then take the best value.

 

[GregR_2]

A "strategy" should not be walking in with a list of players that you are going to end up with, which is more the impression I get from those points. The big advantage in doing a draft is that you can go after any players that are there, meaning you always are able to pursue players who end up being good values. Locking into players and/or only limiting yourself to a single player you didn't have on your list is effectively shutting you out of the major advantages of auctioning over drafting.

There's certainly differing viable approaches. I've been successful (2 wins and a place in the last 5 years) with what you say should not be a strategy; that is, walking in with a list of players I am going to end up with. To me, the ability to do that is what separates auctions from standard drafts. If I draft from the 11 hole. I cannot have Tomlinson. Period. In an auction I can. Period. You can and should target players in auctions. This is what makes auctions superior formats, leveling the playing field by opening the player pool to all. Last year I projected my 25 man roster before the auction and walked away with 18 of them. I've put more research into it this year and expect to get over 20 of my targets. I'm not real interested in valuing every single player. I project them all. I check ADPs and auction values where I can get them, and I become deeply interested in calculating the 25 player/price formula that wins me the highest scoring team for my budget based on my projections and expected pricing. This is specific player/price targeting. I highly advise it if you trust your projections. It takes a little extra effort but ends up simplifying everything, because I don't give a hoot about the value of most players beyond the ceiling set by #1 at each position which sets the table for everything else (generally).

To give an example: Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston seem to be in a tier. Moss will push $40, Wayne 38, Owens probably 37 or 38; Fitzgerald is right there a buck or two behind. Then this "2nd" tier. My projections are different than other people's. I like Colston more than any of them in this tier and as much as Fitz. I tried to trade out of 2.02 to take Colston 7 or 8 picks later, couldn't and took Fitz, but I do value them the same and in an auction, I can target Colston knowing he will go for less than Fitz and not really caring about the rest of these characters. If someone "steals" Smith for a 15% discount, I don't care because I didn't really think he was a steal. I had my roster targeted from my projections and worked a formula that allowed me to hit it. I'm also awake enough to drive Smith's price up a little if it seems to far out of expectations. Of course you also need a back up plan or two, but that all gets worked into the target calculations with some simple if thens.

Much of the advice in this thread reads like it accepts consensus projections and tries to beat them with auction skills. The real secret, I think, is just beating the consensus projections with better ones. Then you don't worry so much about every player's value. You have a good idea of the general thinking, but you target a specific roster designed from the start to beat those projections and that consensus, and of course, maximize the budget.

That's my approach. Nothing else would work for me.

This is the part I really strongly disagree with.If you are not going to determine values for all the players, then yes I guess you definitely had better target specific players since you don't have any forethought into what the other guys are worth.

But you're potentially missing out on opportunities. If you don't decide before hand the value of all the players, then you can't as easily adapt to what is going on. I assume that you are targetting given players because you feel they will be some of the best prices compared to where you value them. My point is you should be doing that with everyone, not just the ones you think in advance may be that way. If I know the value for Roddy White, I may find that he turns out to be a much better value than Steve Smith even though I anticipated Smith would be undervalued. If I took the time to decide what Roddy White is worth I can see the discrepancy between price and value much more easily and quickly. And when I win him I can already start looking at my complete list to find out where that extra money I saved can provide me the best improvement on my team because I have the costs for everyone.

You are cutting yourself short if you limit your prep to just certain players. There is no reason you can't walk into your draft with the same knowledge and even preferences on those same players. Odds are you will still end up with many of them since you probably value them higher than others. But if you don't force yourself into a preconceived strategy but instead stay flexible, you can take advantage of value that you didn't anticipate being there and ultimately end up with a stronger team.

 

[greyone]

:dot:

 

[Sammy B]

I participated in my 1st auction draft this weekend- $200 total budget, no min bid. I was well prepared, having made a list with expected range of values for each player as a base point (based on projected fantasy points). This list proved to be an amazingly accurate price predictor.At any rate, Bush went out 1st at 30 (for PPR league, on the low side of his range) followed by Lynch at 33 (a great bargain), next a guy overpaid for Berrian at $10, and the next guy was LT. Bidding started at $20 and rapidly got to $50 by 5s 2s and 1s. As soon as $50 was bid, I bid $70 - dead silence, folowed by "Is he serious?" followed a few moments later by "SOLD". For the next roughly 60 picks, 27 players were bid out at over my max value range for them, and only 2 were bid under my max value range. I was able to snag Gore at $44, MJD at $36 and C J (Ocho) at $27 all on the low side of pre-set value ranges (again based on my PPR projections.. My point is, I got LT within my value range AND set off a bidding spree in which almost half the players were taken too high.Problem was - I had spent $177 or almost 90% of my available budget on only 4 players - I had only $23 left to spend for 14 players. On the next 16 players taken, only 6 went outside their value ranges - 3 over, 3 under.Then came the "value phase' of the draft - in the next 32 players only 1 was bid significantly over the range while 18 came in under their value range. I snagged 3 players here - Favre $2, S Moss $5, and Burleson $4. Now I'm down to $12 left for 9 positions. I opened my mouth on V Young for $2 (the only time I threw in a bid on someone I didnt want). So it is $10 left for 8 players.Not to worry - finally came the "cheapie phase" where almost all of the players left were in the $1-3 value range.I completed my roster as follows: Z Miller $1, Daniels $2, Campbell $1, K Walker $1, C Henry $1, A Hall $2, GB-D $1, Scobee $1.I felt my plan worked to perfection (sans V Young) and my team looks pretty good.

Great draft, especially for your first auction. Tremendous value for LT, IMHO (35% of your cap). I'm in a 16 team IDP auction league and the top 3 RBs usually go for almost half of the cap. Nice job.

 

[BroadwayG]

You must do a shot if you nominate someone that's already been won.

 

[Lehigh98]

the next guy was LT. Bidding started at $20 and rapidly got to $50 by 5s 2s and 1s. As soon as $50 was bid, I bid $70

Why?

 

[GoRaiders]

the next guy was LT. Bidding started at $20 and rapidly got to $50 by 5s 2s and 1s. As soon as $50 was bid, I bid $70

Why?

Exactly. Since this was his first auction, overall a job well done. But the problem here is there is no reason to go from $50-$70. You may have gotten him for $60 and saved $10. One item to note for future years, your stud players will most likely go for more than in p/y's. Our first year the top RB happen to also go for $70. At the time everyone was in shock. 5 years later, the top RB was $99. Year 1 RB2 was $61, 5 years later $79.

 

[GoRaiders]

Mistakes I have made in the past and hope to actually learn from them.

- Don't get stuck with the last guy in the Tier. You will overpay badly for a guy that has a good chance he doesn't live up to expectations. There is a reason he is the last in the tier. I got caught up in the "I got to have 1 RB in this tier" mode and paid the price. If you do live by this motto, make sure you are getting someone early in that tier.

- Don't just sit back waiting for value. At times you have to overpay (overpay in terms of what you pegged that players price at) to get some studs (just don't let it be the last in the tier, then you will badly overpay). Value plays are nice and ultimately they help you out so you can overpay for a few players. It is nice to have money left and be able to pick off "value plays" later in the draft, but loading your team with $15 players for $10, is not going to bring home the title.

- Depth is nice, but overrated. Yes injuries happen, and it is nice to have depth, but good GM's hawk the WW and makes moves there to help with depth/injuries. I have had a few seasons where at the end of the year I look back and note that the 3 RBs I drafted for a combined total of $40 to be used for depth/flex posistion/hope they pan out and can trade, odds are they don't help my team win games on a week-to-week basis, and 1 RB I could have drafted for $40 would have made me an instant contender. Sure sometimes those $13 RBs end up studing out, but % wise, most of them do not pan out and are wasted $$'s. The few gems that do pan out are what cause the speculation and overpmt for these mostly dud RB's.

Looking at last years draft for RBs in the $10-$20 range - L Jordan, J Jones, Betts, C Taylor, Foster, Norwood, Ahman, Freddie T, DeAngelo Williams, Diggity Dunn, Brandon Jackson, Tatum Bell. None of these guys were going to lead you to the promise land.

It is nice when you hit those sleepers plays and they stud out, but you need to be aware of the risk, and you might be better off spending a few bucks, rather than $15, then use the savings to upgrade your starter.

One mistake I see other GM's do, is staying consistent with their bidding habits. There are some GMs that only bid on a player they want, some will rebid almost instantly after you say your bid (now I know I can bid them up), some will only nom guys they don't want, some nom only guys they do want. You got to mix it up, bid on a player you don't want but know will go for more than you are bidding, rebid quickly, wait to rebid until going once, going twice, etc. Don't let anyone know how you truly feel about a player.

 

[butcher boy]

In my recent draft, I ended up with Randy Moss, Marques Colston, and Plaxico Burress. Total spent on those 3 players was $59. In comparison, Tomlinson went for $56.

The strategy I sort of adapted to to get these 3 guys so cheap was realizing how RB-crazy my league was. By nominating some of these WRs before all the elite backs were taken, they all were hesitant to spend on WRs and they fell to me at great value.

So I guess the moral here is, know your league.

 

[GregR_2]

...One mistake I see other GM's do, is staying consistent with their bidding habits. There are some GMs that only bid on a player they want, some will rebid almost instantly after you say your bid (now I know I can bid them up), some will only nom guys they don't want, some nom only guys they do want. You got to mix it up, bid on a player you don't want but know will go for more than you are bidding, rebid quickly, wait to rebid until going once, going twice, etc. Don't let anyone know how you truly feel about a player.

Really great advice here. There are various owners in my league that are pretty consistent in their tendencies and it's something I often find I'm able to use against them. I know from comments they make that there are also a few owners who misinterpret my bidding style on IDPs to where I've managed a good history of getting them to overpay for IDPs I didn't want, removing them as competitors by the time the IDPs I did want show up.

 

[glock]

_|

 

[sheerterror]

I have my first ever auction draft this Saturday in an already established league. Some very good advice in here. Can anybody offer up some opinions on how different approaches might be taken on starting requirements that have only 1 RB, with 2WR, 1 QB, 1 TE and 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE/QB)? What type of cap allotment should I be looking at between my regular starters as well as the 2 flex spots?

 

[GoRaiders]

Just a follow up to my draft over the weekend:

First player nomed was S Jax. I had him in the tier of RBs with Addai, Barber, Gore. I went out agressive and got him for $60. The first player nomed always goes for less than market, ALWAYS! Later in the draft, Addai went for $70, Barber for $68, Gore $62. Needless to say I was pleased. Addai was the last to go in that tier, which shows by his price. When it came my turn to nom, I put up Bush (ppr league), while the above RBs were still on the board. Got him for $45. RBs later in the draft, Jones-Drew for $50, McGahee for $46.

Normally I don't get so much depth, but the money was going quick, and I could see the values falling, so I hung back and kept cash to start picking off guys. Picked off, S Young for 21, Kevin Smith for 7, Chris Johnson for 6, Forte for 9, Mo Morris for $2 (guy that nomed him holding J Jones could only bid $1, you got to love that). It came down to getting Smith, Johnson and Forte or not getting them and upgrading my WR from Cotchery to someone like Housh. Since we are a keep 2 league and I stayed out of that dreaded $10-20 price range, I went for the rooks.

Oh one mistake I forget to mention previously, don't leave money in your pocket! I did that this year for the first time.

 

[Varmint]

Keep track of everyone else's money. Know their needs. This is actually my number 1 rule.

My #1 rule also....Oh..and hey....that Xcel program I wrote to track all salaries AND each team max possible bid worked GREAT at my auction...

I give it credit for me landing....L. Tomlinson, M. Lynch, Ocho Cinco...AND J. Cutler in a 14-team, 12-man roster league

 

[CalBear]

My league tends to be a little QB-heavy, so I often wait for cheap mid-tier QBs rather than overpaying for good ones. (Manning went for $29 out of a $100 cap; Palmer went for $21).

While others were loading up on QBs, I loaded up on value RBs and WRs. I wound up with Tomlinson, LJ, S.Young(keeper)/A.Hall and some decent backups at RB, and Ocho Cinco, Holt, Colston (keeper), Gonzo (no TE required) at receiver. But I spent myself down to $4 max bid and wound up getting 12 players in a row for $1 each while getting outbid on all of the reasonable QBs. Both my QBs were $1 players; Pennington and Orton. But since then, I worked out a trade of Holt/Orton for McNabb/Bowe, with a guy who had crap for receivers.

The auction lesson is that if you have a league where people are willing to trade, drafting for value works even if you get shut out at one position (as long as that position isn't RB). You can always trade your value later. If your leaguemates aren't big traders, you have to be more careful about cementing starters at each position.

 

[FFCardsFan]

Thinkin about joining a auction league this year and used the search function to find this thread. Very informative. But I have a quick question in helping me give value to players. If someone makes a cheet sheet for an auction league and it is for a $200 cap league, how would I go about transferring those values into a league that has a $400 cap? Obviously its not as simple as doubling everyones value, so what would need to be done?

 

[mambomambo]

Last Year I came up with a simple excel solution for finding the Optimal Budget for your team to spend in a Auction Draft.

Instead of relying on intuition, we might as well use the Player Pool CSV file that can be exported from DD's projections based on your own league's setting in order to solve this problem analytically using a software called EVOLVER (think of it as Excel Solver in Steroids using genetic algorithms to solve your problems). THe idea is that if we believe in our projections (through this site or your own) then there must be ONE combination of players (and its respective points projections) and salaries that will yield (MAXIMIZE) the most number of points in a season based on these projections.

This are the simple steps necessary to get this done:

Excel Set up:

1) Once your league is set up in DD correctly with the projections you want to use, Export the Player Pool into a CSV file

2) Sort both these Columns in ascending order, First Column=DynAuction, Second Column=Points and rename the sheet to "Overall"

3) Move the Points Column to the right of the DynAuction Column (this is not needed, but will facilitate the use of the Vlookup function)

4) Move the Player Name Column to the right if the Points Column (this is not needed, but will facilitate the use of the Vlookup function)

5) Add a worksheet to the workbook, this will be your Budget Sheet (call

6) I would add 4 columns, Position / Player Name / Budget / Next Closest Salary / Points. Make sure you add the totals for the Budget and Points column.

7) In each Row under the Position Column, add the starting positions. i.e= QB1, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc....

8) Enter some dummy Values for each position under Budget to make sure it works correctly later

Excel VLookups:

9) For Each Position under the Next Closest Salary use a Vlookup formula to look at the next highest corresponding salary amount in the “Overall” Tab that is under the Budget # for this position.

10) Do the same thing for the Points Column. Use a Vlookup formula to look at the Points Column in the “Overall” Tab that corresponds to the Next Closest Salary # for this position.

11) Do the same thing for the Player Name Column. Use a Vlookup formula to look at the Player Name Column in the “Overall” Tab that corresponds to the Points # for this position.

12) Now the model is ready. Please note that you could combine steps 9-11 into one formula, but I prefer to separate it in order to see the corresponding values.

You could stop here if you are not familiar with the Evolver Function or are not Excel inclined.... You can just use trial error by changing the Budget #’s for each position to Maximize the Total Points Column.

Solver Function: FORGET ABOUT USING SOLVER....USE EVOLVER INSTEAD

FOrget Solver. DOWNLOAD a free trial of the Excel Add-in EVOLVER from Palisades. This is like SOLVER on Steroids. You can use the fully functional free trial for 15 days...plenty of time to get your model going.

The problem with Excel’s Solver is the “hill climbing” issue. What Evolver will do is run thousands of iterations of combinations of solutions in order to find the best overall answer by exploring the entire universe of possible answers. Just to give you an idea, my Run last night took 29 minutes!!!

In 29 Minutes I had found the MOST optimal solution. If you know how to use Solver, Evolver is a piece of cake. Similar, but more powerful set up.

I guarantee you will be impressed.

16) WOW!! …Evolver took 29 minutes to find the optimal budgeting solution to my League . You now have found the optimal budget solution. Not only each position will show the corresponding Max Budget allocated to it, but it will also show who is the best player that fit that particular budget.

17) Have fun in your Auction!!

Mambo Mambo !!

 

[FFCardsFan]

Uhh, yeah...I expected some sort of formula or equation but this seems a little extensive. I mean, I'm sure it works to the fullest, but any other simpler ways?

 

[mambomambo]

Uhh, yeah...I expected some sort of formula or equation but this seems a little extensive. I mean, I'm sure it works to the fullest, but any other simpler ways?

Sure....send me a check and I'll do it for you!! It all depends how much of a FF nerd you really are... Unfortunately, there is no free lunch....if you want the best budget, it will take some work....This is the MOST comprehensive way to arrive at an Optimum Budget. But it is not for everyone....also, as with any excel model, it is GARBAGE IN -> GARBAGE OUT. So the better your projections, the better your results.

 

[CalBear]

Thinkin about joining a auction league this year and used the search function to find this thread. Very informative. But I have a quick question in helping me give value to players. If someone makes a cheet sheet for an auction league and it is for a $200 cap league, how would I go about transferring those values into a league that has a $400 cap? Obviously its not as simple as doubling everyones value, so what would need to be done?

It's should be as simple as doubling everyone's value; why wouldn't it be? At most you'll be off by a dollar.

 

[renesauz]

Oops forgot this one. Distract your opposition with booze and strippers. We had a couple of "Wait, who just got bid on?" questions during our draft because people were paying attention to the entertainment instead of the draft.

This tactic is FAR more effective in redraft. IN an auction, it can lead to a LOT of guys stealing players cheap, and completely destroy the integrity of the league, not to mention negating the value you're fighting to find.

 

[roadkill1292]

Oops forgot this one. Distract your opposition with booze and strippers. We had a couple of "Wait, who just got bid on?" questions during our draft because people were paying attention to the entertainment instead of the draft.

This tactic is FAR more effective in redraft. IN an auction, it can lead to a LOT of guys stealing players cheap, and completely destroy the integrity of the league, not to mention negating the value you're fighting to find.

Wait'll you see the awesome technology available in the FBG Maryland Leeg. Looking forward to meeting you, BTW.

 

[ravnzfan]

Oops forgot this one.

Distract your opposition with booze and strippers. We had a couple of "Wait, who just got bid on?" questions during our draft because people were paying attention to the entertainment instead of the draft.

This tactic is FAR more effective in redraft. IN an auction, it can lead to a LOT of guys stealing players cheap, and completely destroy the integrity of the league, not to mention negating the value you're fighting to find.

Wait'll you see the awesome technology available in the FBG Maryland Leeg. Looking forward to meeting you, BTW.

roadkill rules

system rocks, as does the crowd...can't wait!

 

[ravnzfan]

Thinkin about joining a auction league this year and used the search function to find this thread. Very informative. But I have a quick question in helping me give value to players. If someone makes a cheet sheet for an auction league and it is for a $200 cap league, how would I go about transferring those values into a league that has a $400 cap? Obviously its not as simple as doubling everyones value, so what would need to be done?

you are correct, because there will be $1 players if there is a $100--$200--$400--$1000 capkeep in mind many guys like to use 80% for their starting lineups, 20% or so for their bench...for arguement sake, let's use 20 man roster/10 starters

$200 cap...starting l/u will use about $150-$165, leaving $35-50 to fill in the bench

assign values to the starters (if 12 team/start QB-2RB-3WR, use 12 QB--24 RB--36WR, etc)...there will be 240 players drafted (20 X 12), using $2400 (12 X $200)

once you've assigned the range for the "starters" (top 12 QB--24RB--36WR, etc) at 75-80%, you know know how much money goes towards the rest of the player pool (25% X $2400 = $600, @20%, $500)

the bottom 100 guys will have an avg of $5-6 assigned to them, generally there is ~15% of the player pool taken for $1 (2 or 3 players/team)...this is where keeping track of the $$$/team needs can have you break a guys back

for example...the ADP owner will surely want CT on his squad---once a team is down to say $14/8guys left, the most he can bid on any one player is $7 (needs to have $1/player left in his bank)

if you feel like CT is worth it, bid him @$5---the other guy goes $6--you bid $7 to screw him, or make him spend all but $1 extra on CT, leaving him nominating for $1 but not being able to outbid anyone

for your $400 cap, starter pool @75-80% wil be $3600-$3840...bottom 100 guys have $960-$1200 or $9-12...but the range is alot wider, as you'll still have ~10-15% @$1, so the upper end of the bench players might go sligtly more than 2X's the player value w/a $200 cap

also, guys might be more apt to go a couple extra $$$ on starters---again, this is why tracking the spending of each owner is critical

by keeping the $$$ of the starter pool straight, you'll be able to snag some nice value when nominating good players towards the end when guys don't have much money left

 

[scientist]

Let me know if I'm on the right track here Mambo, I get what you're doing in Excel, but many of the important steps were left out, like how to actually do some of the more difficult things listed Also, I think this would only work as a starting point, since it is a very targeted list, unless you updated the data in real time during the draft. Any difference in actual bidding compared to your projections would change everything at the first player nominated.

It would take only 5 minutes to get the base worksheet set up. But then VLOOKUP can't find the next closest salary - if RANGE = TRUE, it would find the smallest number, so it would just return all salaries of $1. So instead you have to use a combo of INDEX, MATCH, MIN, and, ABS. You can see how to do this by googling "excel find closest number". The other problem is that VLOOKUP can't distinguish between a QB and a RB, so you'd have to sort by POSITION then by POINTS, and do a different VLOOKUP for each position. Finally, there is the problem of duplicate salaries, especially for how many $1 players there are in a league with a $100-250 salary cap. I'm not sure how it would be feasible to get around all these roadblocks with basic Excel functions.

Solver (sorry not familiar with Evolver), on the other hand, could do this, but only for your initial list of targeted players. You would just need to know how to translate "Pick the combination of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DEF that together yield the most POINTS, when the SUM of DynAuctValue is a MAX of SALARY CAP."

However, if you tried to use this in real time like DraftDominator, as soon as one of the players nominated goes above your projected auction value, you would need to change the auction value in the spreadsheet in real time with the bidding. If you only have a 10 second recount, you might not have enough time to mess with it. Further, the players in your list won't go up for bid in order. Therefore, you can run into the problem of overpaying for a lesser player.

Basically, the only way to use linear programming to successfully make real time draft suggestions for you is if the underlying projected auction values updated in real time with each increasing bid, and then recalculated other bids based on the trending. Since you feed it projected bid amounts based on how you think drafters will bid, if they don't bid according to your projections, and for some reason WRs are inflated at the expense of RBs, your data will become unreliable quickly if it isn't updated on the fly. If you had a helper, one person could sit and enter bid data while the other clicked the bid button and nominated players.

Of course you would only want to go through all this trouble if you were pretty confident in your projections...

 

[Ray_T]

If you have an early nomination, nominate Randy Moss or another great, non-RB first. Moss was the first player nominated in my auction this weekend and I got him for $24 which was $20 less than what I had him valued at. Early in the auction people are saving their $$$ for the stud running backs so you can capitalize by throwing a non-RB out there and probably get great value. Sure enough, the player after Moss was Adrian Peterson, and he went for $55.

I cannot stress this enough. the first player up for auction almost always goes for less money than he should. People need one or two auctions to get in the spirit of things, and are scared to dump a lot of cash early.so if there is a big time player, pick him first, and go with a generous (but not stupid) opening bid to scare some people away right away.

 

[Ray_T]

Mistakes I have made in the past and hope to actually learn from them. - Don't get stuck with the last guy in the Tier. You will overpay badly for a guy that has a good chance he doesn't live up to expectations. There is a reason he is the last in the tier. I got caught up in the "I got to have 1 RB in this tier" mode and paid the price. If you do live by this motto, make sure you are getting someone early in that tier. - Don't just sit back waiting for value. At times you have to overpay (overpay in terms of what you pegged that players price at) to get some studs (just don't let it be the last in the tier, then you will badly overpay). Value plays are nice and ultimately they help you out so you can overpay for a few players. It is nice to have money left and be able to pick off "value plays" later in the draft, but loading your team with $15 players for $10, is not going to bring home the title. - Depth is nice, but overrated. Yes injuries happen, and it is nice to have depth, but good GM's hawk the WW and makes moves there to help with depth/injuries. I have had a few seasons where at the end of the year I look back and note that the 3 RBs I drafted for a combined total of $40 to be used for depth/flex posistion/hope they pan out and can trade, odds are they don't help my team win games on a week-to-week basis, and 1 RB I could have drafted for $40 would have made me an instant contender. Sure sometimes those $13 RBs end up studing out, but % wise, most of them do not pan out and are wasted $$'s. The few gems that do pan out are what cause the speculation and overpmt for these mostly dud RB's.Looking at last years draft for RBs in the $10-$20 range - L Jordan, J Jones, Betts, C Taylor, Foster, Norwood, Ahman, Freddie T, DeAngelo Williams, Diggity Dunn, Brandon Jackson, Tatum Bell. None of these guys were going to lead you to the promise land.It is nice when you hit those sleepers plays and they stud out, but you need to be aware of the risk, and you might be better off spending a few bucks, rather than $15, then use the savings to upgrade your starter.One mistake I see other GM's do, is staying consistent with their bidding habits. There are some GMs that only bid on a player they want, some will rebid almost instantly after you say your bid (now I know I can bid them up), some will only nom guys they don't want, some nom only guys they do want. You got to mix it up, bid on a player you don't want but know will go for more than you are bidding, rebid quickly, wait to rebid until going once, going twice, etc. Don't let anyone know how you truly feel about a player.

That's funny because If I feel someone wants to bid me up, I use this strategy to encourage further re-bids. I up the bid immediately without hesitation to make people think I'm jacked up about getting someone, then I just suddenly exit the bidding when the price starts to get stupid and leave my opponent with a high priced player he didnt want.