Auction Values? (1 Viewer)

[TheFanatic]

Never done and auction before in the general sense. My league has an action for FA's but it is done with salary cap dollars in the millions and it's a dynasty so there was no initial auction style draft.

Is there a program out there that I can plug in the league format, rosters spots, lineups, and starting funds and see what the averages per player should be?

 

[RamMan]

I haven't really found a solid program for this, but I use the VBD program. On the INPUT tab you can fill out your league info (# teams, scoring, etc.). You then "turn on" the auction setting, enter the cap number for your league (we have a $200 cap), click "latest projections" to get FBG's most recent point projections uploaded into the program, and then click "generate cheat sheet". The resulting cheat sheet will generate auction values. However, it is simply a place to start in my opinion.

I take this sheet and then try to adjust for tendancies in my league, as well as shortcomings in the program. For example, in my 10-teamer with $200 cap, there will be $2000 total auction dollars spent. Since we carry 14 roster spots and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 K, and 1 D, I estimate that 20 QB's will be taken (starter and a back-up for each team), 45 RB's (4.5 per team), 55 WR's (5.5 per team), 10 K's and 10 D's (140 players total). Since the VBD cheat sheet assigns values to 31 QB's, 69 RB's, 102 WR's, etc. I need to adjust the auction values to reflect that $2000 will be spent on only the #'s of players that my league will take. Therefore, I end up transfering the VBD cheat sheet onto another spreadsheet, I delete all of the auction values for QB #21 and heigher, RB #46 and higher, WR #55 and higher, K #11 and higher, and D #11 and higher. That leaves me with values given to only those players who will be drafted in my league. I can then begin to make my adjustments to the following variables:

- I can move players in and out of my final list, depending on latest news and updated projections from FBG's

- I total the estimated dollar values from all 140 "in play" players on my sheet into a cell in the spreadsheet. Then as I adjust the values for each player I also know what the total dollar value for the entire player pool is at all times (remember, my league will spend a total of $2,000).

- You can get an extravagant as you like with the cheat sheet. I personally make 3 columns for each player - "Actual Worth" (again, based on the VBD estimates with some adjusting), Probable Price (this value is based on what my leaguemates will probably pay - we know each other well having played together for 8 years), and finally I make a "75% of Actual Worth" column (which is my benchmark for getting great value).

I work from this sheet during my auction draft. It's not perfect but it has served me fine over the years. I know that there is also an auction function in DD (and in the "settings" section you can choose Maurille's auction formula) but whenever I try to use it the auction values seem way out of line for my league - even though I input all of the data for my league. I probably don't understand the baselines and weighting all that well - which Maurille's auction setting in DD require.

Hope that helps....

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

 

[TheFanatic]

I haven't really found a solid program for this, but I use the VBD program. On the INPUT tab you can fill out your league info (# teams, scoring, etc.). You then "turn on" the auction setting, enter the cap number for your league (we have a $200 cap), click "latest projections" to get FBG's most recent point projections uploaded into the program, and then click "generate cheat sheet". The resulting cheat sheet will generate auction values. However, it is simply a place to start in my opinion. I take this sheet and then try to adjust for tendancies in my league, as well as shortcomings in the program. For example, in my 10-teamer with $200 cap, there will be $2000 total auction dollars spent. Since we carry 14 roster spots and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 K, and 1 D, I estimate that 20 QB's will be taken (starter and a back-up for each team), 45 RB's (4.5 per team), 55 WR's (5.5 per team), 10 K's and 10 D's (140 players total). Since the VBD cheat sheet assigns values to 31 QB's, 69 RB's, 102 WR's, etc. I need to adjust the auction values to reflect that $2000 will be spent on only the #'s of players that my league will take. Therefore, I end up transfering the VBD cheat sheet onto another spreadsheet, I delete all of the auction values for QB #21 and heigher, RB #46 and higher, WR #55 and higher, K #11 and higher, and D #11 and higher. That leaves me with values given to only those players who will be drafted in my league. I can then begin to make my adjustments to the following variables:- I can move players in and out of my final list, depending on latest news and updated projections from FBG's- I total the estimated dollar values from all 140 "in play" players on my sheet into a cell in the spreadsheet. Then as I adjust the values for each player I also know what the total dollar value for the entire player pool is at all times (remember, my league will spend a total of $2,000). - You can get an extravagant as you like with the cheat sheet. I personally make 3 columns for each player - "Actual Worth" (again, based on the VBD estimates with some adjusting), Probable Price (this value is based on what my leaguemates will probably pay - we know each other well having played together for 8 years), and finally I make a "75% of Actual Worth" column (which is my benchmark for getting great value). I work from this sheet during my auction draft. It's not perfect but it has served me fine over the years. I know that there is also an auction function in DD (and in the "settings" section you can choose Maurille's auction formula) but whenever I try to use it the auction values seem way out of line for my league - even though I input all of the data for my league. I probably don't understand the baselines and weighting all that well - which Maurille's auction setting in DD require. Hope that helps....

Hope that helps? That's friggin genius. That's exactly what I'm looking for.If I hit you with a PM, is there any chance you could send me your SS since these leagues are nearly identical. $200 to spend but the only difference being a total of 15 roster spots. I can deal with that minor difference and play with the expected values from what I know of the fellow owners.

 

[GregR_2]

I haven't really found a solid program for this, but I use the VBD program. On the INPUT tab you can fill out your league info (# teams, scoring, etc.). You then "turn on" the auction setting, enter the cap number for your league (we have a $200 cap), click "latest projections" to get FBG's most recent point projections uploaded into the program, and then click "generate cheat sheet". The resulting cheat sheet will generate auction values. However, it is simply a place to start in my opinion. I take this sheet and then try to adjust for tendancies in my league, as well as shortcomings in the program. For example, in my 10-teamer with $200 cap, there will be $2000 total auction dollars spent. Since we carry 14 roster spots and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 K, and 1 D, I estimate that 20 QB's will be taken (starter and a back-up for each team), 45 RB's (4.5 per team), 55 WR's (5.5 per team), 10 K's and 10 D's (140 players total). Since the VBD cheat sheet assigns values to 31 QB's, 69 RB's, 102 WR's, etc. I need to adjust the auction values to reflect that $2000 will be spent on only the #'s of players that my league will take. Therefore, I end up transfering the VBD cheat sheet onto another spreadsheet, I delete all of the auction values for QB #21 and heigher, RB #46 and higher, WR #55 and higher, K #11 and higher, and D #11 and higher. That leaves me with values given to only those players who will be drafted in my league. I can then begin to make my adjustments to the following variables:

Good method, but thought I'd mention some things that can save you some effort.You can do your zeroing of players you don't want in Draft Dominator to save time. Just go into Setup-> VBD Baselines and use User Configurable by Position Rank and set the rank to whichever player you want at that position to be the last one one with more than a minimum bid showing. The money will be redistributed based on their fantasy scoring to the remaining players.ETA: Oops, sounds like you've maybe tried that but didn't get the results you wanted. Though the User Configurable by Rank might be easier for you to work with than MT's method if you want to match certain results.

- I can move players in and out of my final list, depending on latest news and updated projections from FBG's- I total the estimated dollar values from all 140 "in play" players on my sheet into a cell in the spreadsheet. Then as I adjust the values for each player I also know what the total dollar value for the entire player pool is at all times (remember, my league will spend a total of $2,000).

If you maintain things in Draft Dominator, it has a column called "DynAuction". As the auction actually proceeds and money is depleted, it will recalculate the original auction price to reflect the players and amount of money left. So if halfway through the auction your league has overspent, the remaining players should start going for cheaper, and the DynAuction will reflect it. You can also see what you originally thought they should be worth as the Auction price remains unchanged.

- You can get an extravagant as you like with the cheat sheet. I personally make 3 columns for each player - "Actual Worth" (again, based on the VBD estimates with some adjusting), Probable Price (this value is based on what my leaguemates will probably pay - we know each other well having played together for 8 years), and finally I make a "75% of Actual Worth" column (which is my benchmark for getting great value). I work from this sheet during my auction draft. It's not perfect but it has served me fine over the years. I know that there is also an auction function in DD (and in the "settings" section you can choose Maurille's auction formula) but whenever I try to use it the auction values seem way out of line for my league - even though I input all of the data for my league. I probably don't understand the baselines and weighting all that well - which Maurille's auction setting in DD require. Hope that helps....

You might get results more like you're expecting with the user Configurable by Position Rank. I use MT's method myself but I also pay a lot of attention to the rank it displays based on my setting.

 

[Happy]

It's interesting that everyone seems to feel you need to work outside of DraftDominator or VBD excel spreadsheet to get an accurate result. I'd hope that FBG takes this as input to improve the Auction features of DD and VBD.

For one auction league I've been in for the past 5-6 years, the auction values of the top 15 RBs, top 10 WRs and top 3 QBs are always undervalued by DraftDominator. Owners in my league put a premium on them, and are willing to bid them up much higher than DD says their value is.

Example: Draft dominator shows for $100 budget, 12 teams, PPR that

RB1 - ADP - $23

RB2 - MJD - $22

with a gradual decline to

RB10 - Slaton - $16

Doesnt' seem like much of a premium to pay for ADP or MJD over RB #10 Slaton. In my league, the top 2 RBs go for closer to $40 and $35 respectively.

 

[GregR_2]

It's interesting that everyone seems to feel you need to work outside of DraftDominator or VBD excel spreadsheet to get an accurate result. I'd hope that FBG takes this as input to improve the Auction features of DD and VBD.For one auction league I've been in for the past 5-6 years, the auction values of the top 15 RBs, top 10 WRs and top 3 QBs are always undervalued by DraftDominator. Owners in my league put a premium on them, and are willing to bid them up much higher than DD says their value is.Example: Draft dominator shows for $100 budget, 12 teams, PPR thatRB1 - ADP - $23RB2 - MJD - $22with a gradual decline to RB10 - Slaton - $16Doesnt' seem like much of a premium to pay for ADP or MJD over RB #10 Slaton. In my league, the top 2 RBs go for closer to $40 and $35 respectively.

Which should mean you should be able to find some better values at RB, use the extra money on other positions, and end up with a stronger overall team.The goal is not to make Draft Dominator look like your league auction result. The goal is to have it give an accurate assessment of what players SHOULD go for. When DD doesn't match how your league auctions, that is not just a good thing for you, that is a great thing for you. When other owners don't spend properly that is when you have a lot of room to put together a great team. I'm a living example of this. My dynasty/contract league going into its 5th year had a bunch of owners starting out who were very experienced but never learned how to calculate value let alone auction prices. The league setup was very different than a normal league, with the top players at each position roughly equal in value. They all auctioned like it was a normal setup dominated by the stud RB theory. I had LT worth around $95 IIRC, and he went for over $170. All the top 10 RB went for 70%-100% more than I had them worth. As a result I was able to pick up some lesser RBs and utterly dominate every position's scoring except RB for 3 years. I dominated not just the starters after those top RBs, able to get almost anyone I wanted, but I dominated the end of the draft too and got first pick of the low priced backups.The reason I was able to do that was because I knew from DD what the prices SHOULD have been. I think DD does a fine job of coming up with auction prices. The first year I did it in completely manual in a spreadsheet so I'd worked through the steps and would understand how changes would change things... and then I've done it in DD ever since and I'm very happy with the results. Now my example was extreme, most people don't overspend to twice what a player is really worth.But anyway, the point being that you don't want the prices YOU use to match what others will spend. You want them to reflect what the players are worth. If you want to generate a copy to keep on hand of what you think others will spend, that's fine too. But that isn't what you want to auction from. You just want to keep it in mind so you know, "I may need to overspend to get a worthwhile starter, but if so I'll find players I can overspend less than others have."

 

[Alberta Clipper]

Good post Greg. The DD is a tool that if configured the right way can help track an auction and highlight value.

Also one point about the DD for auctions - do a search for "auction.csv" file which is part of the DD program. This file can be edited to predict/account for the inflation of top tier RB/WR or any other position you choose.

 

[hephner]

Speaking of auction, I know this is off topic, but for anyone that has done a slow auction on MFL, how long does it typically take? I'm in a new league that just filled today, draft will start tomorrow. 12 teams, 16 roster spots, with each owner nominating 2-3 players per day, bids close when highest bid holds for 24 hours. Will we finish in two weeks?

 

[Alberta Clipper]

But anyway, the point being that you don't want the prices YOU use to match what others will spend. You want them to reflect what the players are worth. If you want to generate a copy to keep on hand of what you think others will spend, that's fine too. But that isn't what you want to auction from. You just want to keep it in mind so you know, "I may need to overspend to get a worthwhile starter, but if so I'll find players I can overspend less than others have."

This is true but I think one must always keep flexible and adapt in an auction. If it becomes obvious after 10+ RB are gone off the board that your estimated prices are not going to land you 1 or 2 startable RB then you must admit something was wrong with your estimates and grab someone fast!

 

[Bayhawks]

It's interesting that everyone seems to feel you need to work outside of DraftDominator or VBD excel spreadsheet to get an accurate result. I'd hope that FBG takes this as input to improve the Auction features of DD and VBD.

For one auction league I've been in for the past 5-6 years, the auction values of the top 15 RBs, top 10 WRs and top 3 QBs are always undervalued by DraftDominator. Owners in my league put a premium on them, and are willing to bid them up much higher than DD says their value is.

Example: Draft dominator shows for $100 budget, 12 teams, PPR that

RB1 - ADP - $23

RB2 - MJD - $22

with a gradual decline to

RB10 - Slaton - $16

Doesnt' seem like much of a premium to pay for ADP or MJD over RB #10 Slaton. In my league, the top 2 RBs go for closer to $40 and $35 respectively.

Which should mean you should be able to find some better values at RB, use the extra money on other positions, and end up with a stronger overall team.The goal is not to make Draft Dominator look like your league auction result. The goal is to have it give an accurate assessment of what players SHOULD go for. When DD doesn't match how your league auctions, that is not just a good thing for you, that is a great thing for you. When other owners don't spend properly that is when you have a lot of room to put together a great team.

I'm a living example of this. My dynasty/contract league[/b] going into its 5th year had a bunch of owners starting out who were very experienced but never learned how to calculate value let alone auction prices. The league setup was very different than a normal league, with the top players at each position roughly equal in value. They all auctioned like it was a normal setup dominated by the stud RB theory. I had LT worth around $95 IIRC, and he went for over $170. All the top 10 RB went for 70%-100% more than I had them worth. As a result I was able to pick up some lesser RBs and utterly dominate every position's scoring except RB for 3 years. I dominated not just the starters after those top RBs, able to get almost anyone I wanted, but I dominated the end of the draft too and got first pick of the low priced backups.

The reason I was able to do that was because I knew from DD what the prices SHOULD have been. I think DD does a fine job of coming up with auction prices. The first year I did it in completely manual in a spreadsheet so I'd worked through the steps and would understand how changes would change things... and then I've done it in DD ever since and I'm very happy with the results. Now my example was extreme, most people don't overspend to twice what a player is really worth.

But anyway, the point being that you don't want the prices YOU use to match what others will spend. You want them to reflect what the players are worth. If you want to generate a copy to keep on hand of what you think others will spend, that's fine too. But that isn't what you want to auction from. You just want to keep it in mind so you know, "I may need to overspend to get a worthwhile starter, but if so I'll find players I can overspend less than others have."

The point I bolded above makes a difference, IMO. In my auction league, the best RBs go for between 1/3 to 1/2 of your cap (one year Alexander went for 2/3 of the cap, but that was a one-time thing). The best WRs go for about 1/3 of the cap, as well. However, it's a redraft league, and (unfortunately) very little trading gets done. So letting all the top RBs and top WRs go, so I can scoop up undervalued talent below them will not help me, as I only have those players for 1 year, and not much trading happens (1-2 a year). In Draft Dominator, you can manipulate the auction values without having to configure point values or position rank.

First, select Maurile's auction method.

Next, you want to edit the Auction.csv file. The Auction.csv file is located in the C:\Program Files\DraftDominator subdirectory.

Now, when you edit this file, you can tweak positions individually. You can also tweak players within a position individually too. For example, if you know that Brady, Brees, and Manning will each go for between 15-20% of the cap, but the rest of the QBs will not be as extravagantly high, you can adjust the QB1, QB2, and QB3 spots, while leaving the rest of the QB spots alone. Same for the other positions. You can tweak the DD to match your league (providing you know how your leaguemates traditionally operate). I had to play with the figures and check the DD a few times until I got the values that seemed right for my league.

To know what the players SHOULD go for (according to DD), you'd have to run the projections without tweaking the auction.csv file, copy & paste those values somewhere, and then edit the auction.csv file. However, I believe that matching the DD auction values as closely as possible to your league is more valuable than having a list of "values." It comes down to the projections. Ignore the player names. If QB5 would traditionally command 10% of your cap, but you can get him for 7%, that's a value. QB5 may be Schaub, or Palmer, or Warner. All that matters is that if he hits your projections, then you get value.

 

[GregR_2]

But anyway, the point being that you don't want the prices YOU use to match what others will spend. You want them to reflect what the players are worth. If you want to generate a copy to keep on hand of what you think others will spend, that's fine too. But that isn't what you want to auction from. You just want to keep it in mind so you know, "I may need to overspend to get a worthwhile starter, but if so I'll find players I can overspend less than others have."

This is true but I think one must always keep flexible and adapt in an auction. If it becomes obvious after 10+ RB are gone off the board that your estimated prices are not going to land you 1 or 2 startable RB then you must admit something was wrong with your estimates and grab someone fast!

I think we're in agreement with the part I have in quotes at the end of that paragraph. Even if people are overspending vs your prices, you still need to spend to get a worthwhile starter. Using the money you save and only getting backup level players will hurt your team, not help it. So you have to get starter caliber players, but the key is to not overspend as much as everyone else.But I disagree with your last sentence when you say it means something is wrong with your estimates. Seeing other owners spend more than you came up with for the players worth does not mean your estimates were wrong. I think much more often the case is that two things combine to make the costs higher than they should be. 1. Owners don't prepare, or don't know how to prepare, and so don't walk into the auction with a list of well-constructed values that fit their league. And 2, people get caught up in the auction and bid higher than they would have wanted to if they didn't get caught up.The vast majority of the time I'll stick with my values and be happy the other owners are spending more than I think their players are worth. I know from my projections how I feel about the players and my prices are based strongly on that. The prices I came up with are assuming that an amount of fantasy value at one position should be equal in price to the same amount at another position. If they are overspending at RB, that means they are paying more dollars per fantasy production than should be the average over the league. So that means it has to be made up for with a drop in price at WR production. So as long as I get RBs who are worthy of starting, and spend the extra money at WR, I should outscore them overall.

 

[jagerbomb]

It's interesting that everyone seems to feel you need to work outside of DraftDominator or VBD excel spreadsheet to get an accurate result. I'd hope that FBG takes this as input to improve the Auction features of DD and VBD.For one auction league I've been in for the past 5-6 years, the auction values of the top 15 RBs, top 10 WRs and top 3 QBs are always undervalued by DraftDominator. Owners in my league put a premium on them, and are willing to bid them up much higher than DD says their value is.Example: Draft dominator shows for $100 budget, 12 teams, PPR thatRB1 - ADP - $23RB2 - MJD - $22with a gradual decline to RB10 - Slaton - $16Doesnt' seem like much of a premium to pay for ADP or MJD over RB #10 Slaton. In my league, the top 2 RBs go for closer to $40 and $35 respectively.

This is a good point. I use the DD as a starting point for my auction and then dump it out to a spreadsheet but for different purposes. A few things that I add are:1) Set players outside the top 256 to zero (16 team league with 16 players)2) Adjust the total available money down by $50 as there are always a few guys that don't spend all there money. I can adjust this mid way through the auction if it looks like more will be spent and it adjusts the values accordingly3) I calculate my "Max Bid"that I want to pay and the "Bid up to" amount that I use to prevent others from getting great deals - these are adjustable during the auction.4) I'd like to add configurable Max Bid % by position that I would adjust based on how many players I already have at that position. For example if I already have 2 WR but no RBs I would pay closer to full value for RBs but would only be looking for really good deals at WR.5) I show the over/under $ vs projected and the over/under % so that I know how overspent or underspent the auction is at any point.It would be nice if these were built into the DD because the DD is generally much nicer to use than my spreadsheet. Overall the DD is awesome for auctions but these features would be great in my opinion.Lastly, I've heard of draft programs that actually integrate with the popular sites and update the DD during the auction so that you don't have find players and enter paid values... I haven't tried these out but this would be the killer feature.