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I think the OP is referring to Miles Austin not Austin Collie, but i could be mistaken.
I understand. Collie is well into the next tier in my rankings.
my bad.
I think Id take him over Robiskie, Thomas and Britt and definitely not Harvin.
Can all of them contribute significantly now? 09?Jets have Austin coming in this week and he'll cost a 2nd rounder if they can get him away from Jerry. With a spot to fill, I'd tend to lean toward a young veteran than a rookie WR most of the time. Rook might have a better career but that 2-3 years of development is too long with a spot to fill.If you're the Jets GM, what's your thoughts here?
Well it depends on what you're looking for. Austin has a size/speed combo that only Maclin and DHB can match in this class. Cotchery isn't a burner, and while they do have Clowney and Stuckey, they are more slot types, so a bigger wideout that can also get behind the safeties is a perfect fit. Thomas and Dillard are more like Clowney and Stuckey. Robiskie is more like Cotchery. So it would make sense for them to take Austin over the wideouts available in the 2nd, except possibly Britt, who has a similar profile to Austin.
Sigmund Bloom said:
ReallySigmund Bloom said:
And I'm open to DHB in the 1st given the Jets needs at WR.....Looking at Austin for a 2nd rounder could make sense when you paint it that way.But, I'll tell ya, I think Jets fans will go a little nuts at 1st with a deal like this. I doubt the average football fan knows Miles Austin from a hole in the wall.ETA.. Looking at some Jets sites - The concensus seems to have Justin McCareins flashbacks - thinking a 2nd rounder is too much...
Bri said:
This is the point bloom is missing. Although those guys maybe more talented, you'll have to hold onto them atleast two years to know what you have. With Austin he's going to get his chance right away and if he sucks you simply drop him for someone else instead of holding onto the Malcolm Kelly/Mario Manninghams of the world where you have no idea where they're at even a year after drafting them.
I would say his value would go down if he goes to the Jets. You have a conservative defensive coach in Ryan and no QB. In Dallas you have a better team and at least he has a good QB and an OC who knows his skills.
in Dallas he'll continue to muddle thru Crayton and Hurd(RFA) for time.I think he's clearly better than Clowney and Stuckey is just "made for" the slot. Far more opportunity=far more value IMO
I see Clowney and Stuckey as completely different WRs. Stuckey's main use is underneath, prototypical slot. Clowney seems more like a speed guy and pure vertical threat. Maybe Clowney will develop given he never had good QBs in college and hasn't gotten much of a chance in the pros due to injuries and bouncing around. If they do sign Austin I think has a lot to do with how they see Clowney - not ready to step in at #2.Austin may be 6'2" or 6'3" but he is not a physical presence. He still plays like a punt returner: can beat people, can find open space, but avoids contact and doesn't fight for catches in traffic. I think Robiskie and to a larger extent Britt have that physical presence, which makes a fantasy difference in PPR upside and an NFL difference in how they can help in the run game and with other WR's YAC. Austin really didn't measure any faster than Robiskie and Britt, but he plays fast and has proven to be a good deep threat. I think his upside is limited. He can be a solid #2 WR in the NFL and an upgrade over Crayton. But in Dallas he will never be better than a 3rd option, and if he goes to the Jets, I would not touch him - he would be a boom/bust player with much lower booms. For fantasy purposes, I wouldn't take him over the top 7 WRs regardless of where they go. Guys like Iglesias, Dillard, he might be better than the gamble, but I could see any of the top 7 stepping in and immediately having much more value than Austin would.If I'm the Jets, I'd much rather have Britt than Austin, since 1) I'm going to be running a lot with the new QB and improved D and Britt is an excellent blocking WR and 2) I can wait for Britt to get better. Maybe the Jets are in denial about that 2nd one.Sigmund Bloom said:
Nope, you're not alone. Reminds me of Courtney Taylor or a hundred other guys that "never got an opportunity" and then get moved to a different team where they will have "a chance to shine".Generally, if a guy hasn't shown something fairly consistent in three years, he's missing something. I'm not saying a guy like that has NEVER turned it on with change of scenery, but it's pretty darn rare.
Austin came into the league as a raw, but very physically gifted wide receiver. The Cowboys put him in as a kick returner and it was clear he had game changing speed, but he seemed awkward as a wide receiver. Last year in preseason he really seemed to "get it", running better routes and consistently hands catching, and soon he basically passed Patrick Crayton on the depth chart. There is reason for the buzz beyond inheriting situation. I wouldnt lump him in with guys like Taylor who came into the league with little upside and only got opportunity because of a myriad of injuries ahead of them.
He wasn't even drafted, correct? That means teams had 7-8 chances to pick him and chose not to, so I don't see how a "very physically gifted receiver" could slip past all those GMs (even Brady and Colston were drafted at some point...and yes I realize folks succeed when skipped on draft day, but it is a shot in the dark backing one of those guys early in their career).In 37 career games, the guy has 18 receptions...trade a 2nd rounder for someone who has pulled those numbers for three seasons?!?! I am not trying to be wise, but if he was so talented, why did he not get more opportunities or why did the team feel the need to trade for Roy Williams mid-season? Maybe I will be surprised, but i highly doubt a guy who put up those numbers with Romo at the healm, will walk into a "pass catching bonanza" with Clemmens at the healm.As a Jets fan, I can totally see this deal happening though...ughh.
If he stays in Dallas he will be starting opposite Roy Williams. His speed compliments Roy Williams better than the other WRs on the team. Dallas likes Crayton in the slot. Hurd is decent but he doesn't have the speed to stretch defenses like Austin. Stanback is totally unproven at the moment.
Austin went to Monmouth college and he was a raw talent. That is why he wasn't drafted. Brady went to Michigan and Colston was already pretty polished even though he went to a small school.He didn't get more opportunities because of a few things. Most rookie WRs don't do anything their first couple of years so don't be shocked that a small school raw wr didn't make the jump quickly. Hurd was more polished than he was 2 years ago. That is how much improvement Austin made last season. Not only did he pass Hurd but he passed Crayton as well.The kid was a human highlight reel last season on the limited chances he had. The only thing slowing him down last season were injuries. I challenge anyone to go to nfl.com and check his highlights and not see a talented player.
Its very easy to look at the stats and not see anything there. But I can almost guarantee that anyone making that argument hasnt seen him play, or very little if they did. I've watched pretty much every Cowboy game for several years, and if you're paying attention, you'll see this guy can play. He beats single coverage regularly. He can get deep. He's got good, not great, hands. I'm not saying the guy is going to be an all-pro. But he is a 24 year old starting-caliber player. He made big, big improvement his third year. There's nothing to suggest he won't continue to get better. I've heard nothing negative about him as far as locker room or off field issues are concerned. The only drawback with him is that he's been injury prone. But that's hardly uncommon. I was very apprehensive and worried when Dallas only put a 2nd round tender on him. (I can provide links if anyone is interested.) I didnt worry about that same level tender on Hurd, Proctor, or Bowen. But I was very worried about Austin. Starting caliber 24 year old WRs don't grow on trees. A late 2nd round pick is a major crap-shoot. Are the odds even 50% for getting a starting player at pick 52? Much less a WR which Dallas has had all kinds of trouble drafting/developing over the last decade?Some Jets fans might be pissed off if this signing occurs. But I can tell you. This (relatively informed) Dallas fan will be seriously pissed off if Austin's lost and only pick 52 comes back in return.Sweet Love said:
Colston - 215 catches, 3000 yards, 25 TDS - 3 years in the leagueAustin 18 catches, 354 yards, 3 TDS - 3 years in the leagueYou may want to rethink telling other people they have weak arguments and then going and comparing him to Colston.
A little bit of revisionist history I think. People were jocking Taylor all over the place. Donte Stallworth. Reggie Brown. Ashley Lelie. Corey Bradford. DJ Hackett. A million other guys.There are always excuses and stories of "the coaches love this kid", and "he was the talk of camp" and on and on. But when a guy doesn't produce after three years in the league, the chances are he's never going to. There are always exceptions, and maybe he'll be one of them, but I'm just saying I personally wouldn't spend a lot to get him, and would rather have quite a few of the rooks over him. There's a reason the Cowboys gave up what they did to get Roy Williams, and it wasn't so he could battle Austin for a job. Austin's the kind of guy who could surprise and have nice NFL season as a #2 or #3 guy, but for fantasy purposes, he's fool's gold.Sigmund Bloom said:
Funny that half of the guys you mentioned as "fools gold" were highly thought of rookies coming out that could have belonged in that group of rookies you would prefer to have. I would say that rookies are more likely fools gold than a young player that has improved every year he has been in the league. Will he be all-pro? The odds are against it but barring injury I like his chances with the Cowboys in being a 1000 yard 6TD guy this season.
Sure he improved...he went from 0 to 5 to 13 catches over a three year span. I am not saying he can't be good, but it sounds as though most people are betting the house on him. The Jets would be with a 2nd round pick...I want no part of that for my team. I have seen him play, and he does make some pretty nice plays...kind of like Brandon Lloyd.
Brady >>>>>>>>>>>>> ClemensWelkers stats before trade (67 rec 687 yards) with Joey freakin' Harrington slingin' it>>>>> Austin (13 rec 278 yards) with Tony Romo (Pro Bowl QB) tossing it THAT is how you make a trade with a 2nd rounder. You may value Austin high, but you don't give up a second rounder for that production.
A career with a couple of 800/5 seasons sprinkled into more common 600/4 seasons IS fantasy fool's gold. Enough to be "interesting" but never enough to start. That's part of what I am saying, this kid might not develop at all, or he might develop into a reasonably productive NFL receiver. But will he develop into a guy you can actually use on a fantasy squad? History suggests it is VERY unlikely.As for the rooks mentioned by the previous poster, you are absolutely correct. Many of the 1st tier guys will flop. MOST of those 2nd/3rd tier guys will flop. Even so, there is a reasonable chance one or more of them might end up startable on your fantasy team, which is the ultimate goal.I have him at 800 yards & 5td's
My point is the following:1) The chances of a wide receiver who went undrafted and made a team and eventually broke 1000 yards are probably 1 in 50 (and I am sure I am being very generous with that number. I am not saying he can't do it, but I don't like those odds.2) He has 18 career catches over a 3 year career and I am going to take the chance with a 2nd rounder on him?? I am not even saying I would not want him on my team, but certainly not at that price when he has not put himself in a position to do more.3) I understand that that some great players went undrafted (there was a thread bouncing around here a while back with an All-Star team of undrafted guys), but that list did not go extremely deep.Just throwing it out there, but what is Lance Moore available for (I am not sure, but isn't it a second rounder too)? If that is the case, I would rather have him (although the Jets have continually cornered the market on 6'0 and shorter WRs).
funny that you bring up Lance Moore.Here's how his career went before "making it" last year:
Exactly. The guy is putting it together. You can see it with your own eyes if you're paying attention.
I want to guess a 2nd too here. If you look at the amount for Austin's tenderred offer it's like 1.3 or 1.4 mil which isn't a whole lot in today's NFL world for a starting WR. I'm not really sure why that amount =2nd on their scale.Interesting ideaIMO Austin+Moore > Austin+Crayton so it'd be fun to see Jones trade Crayton to Saints and then steal Moore.
The teams seem to start to move on from it in the first training camp. Third round pick and not cutting it, we don't care, you're released. By year two, it is almost completely irrelevant, except for teams that are afraid of being embarrassed by poor first rounders. By year three, it is completely out of the picture, and that's how it should be for us too.
Not about draft position for me. It's about a guy who hasn't done anything to merit the real hope of becoming a #1 or #1a/#1b NFL receiver (aka a startable fantasy receiver) in three full years.It's also annoying to hear the repeated mantra of "all ya gotta do is watch him". I HAVE watched him. He does some nice things. But he doesn't easily get open on his own, is not particularly elusive after the catch, doesn't really have the game-breaking speed that is implied in this thread (he's fast enough to go deep and beat people outside, but not so fast that defenders give him a huge cushion allowing him to work easily underneath), etc. There is a reason he has never caught more than three balls in a game in his career. He is simply not a go-to guy. He's a complementary guy. I rostered him on and off in different leagues last year (and the year before) hoping he would develop into a go-to guy. He hasn't, and IMO likely won't.Sigmund Bloom said:JetsWillWin said:
This could just as easily be describing Kenny Britt, who will be a 2nd round rookie pick (maybe higher if he lands someplace with a high powered passing attack) - if you're only holding WRs who have #1a/#1b upside, then you probably aren't taking any wideouts after the first round of your rookie draft.
