Average FF ranking by position (1 Viewer)

[JayMan]

Here are two tables showing - for all active players:

1. The number of players (by position) having played that many years;

2. The average FF rankings (by position) by NFL experience.

Number of players:

#---QB---RB---WR---TE1---84--182--205--1172---68--145--159---813---52--118--126---634---49---93---94---495---38---69---69---396---34---48---55---327---29---35---42---238---24---28---30---159---17---22---23---1310--13---14---19----911--12---10---10----512---9----6----6----213---5----3----4----114---2----1----2----115---2----0----1----116---1----0----1----017---1----0----0----018---1----0----0----019---1----0----0----0Average FF Ranking:

#-----QB----RB------WR-----TE1---50.9---89.1--110.9---61.42---36.2---79.0---90.6---47.73---28.6---77.7---76.1---39.14---27.8---73.3---63.0---43.15---25.6---71.1---57.2---40.16---24.1---62.2---60.3---44.67---22.6---65.1---57.3---38.78---29.0---60.6---38.4---35.79---34.5---62.2---42.4---43.910--36.2---69.3---35.2---48.211--28.6---78.1---41.3---42.012--24.0---83.2---57.5---61.013--46.2---84.0---59.5---41.014--09.0--182.0---45.0---93.015--18.0----0.0---78.0--123.016--48.0----0.0---62.0----0.0	17--35.0----0.0----0.0----0.0  18--17.0----0.0----0.0----0.0 	 19--45.0----0.0----0.0----0.0

Explanations of that second table:What we are seeing here is the average FF ranking of active players when they played that particular year.

For example, QBs... David Carr ranked 24th in his 1st year, Peyton Manning ranked 7th, Carson Palmer 20th and Aaron Rodgers 74th... this would lead to a 31.3 QB/1 ranking in the table above.

Likewise, for their second year... David Carr ranked 27th, Peyton Manning ranked 4th, Carson Palmer 1st and Aaron Rodgers will be playing his second year in '06... this would lead to a 10.7 QB/2 ranking in the table above.

Conclusions:

QBs: big jump between year1 and year2 usually... good up until year 12...

RBs: ascending up to year 6/7 it's downward from there...shortest careers of those positions...

WRs: big jump from year2 to year3 (the well known theory) and from year3 to year4... those that have long careers (8/9+ years) are good up until years 12/13...

TEs: same patters as WRs - the jump is from year1 to year2 though

Interesting sleepers:

With that in mind - players that seem to follow the pattern above, for '06...

QBs: Charlie Frye (from 40th in '05 to ?) - no need to worry about Steve McNair dropping before '07...

RBs: Descending are Corey Dillon, Ahman Green and Fred Taylor... could step up big time are Chester Taylor and Brian Westbrook...

WRs: Jump on Lee Evans (29th), Michael Jenkins (61st) and Ernest Wilford (34th)...

TEs: Don't expect too much out of Vernon Davis... but do of Heath Miller (11th) and Zack Hilton (23rd)

If you want info (rankings/years/positions) on anyone in particular - feel free to ask

Your thoughts...

 

[Bri]

Can you re-explain or "dumb down" your first two sentences for me? I'm not following and this looks interesting

 

[JayMan]

Can you re-explain or "dumb down" your first two sentences for me? I'm not following and this looks interesting

First table:Take the QBs for example, QB/1 is 84... this means that there are 84 active QBs (since all of them had to play a rookie season to start their career)... QB/2 at 68 means that out of the 84 active QBs, 68 played at least two seasons... and so on, QB/10 at 13 - 13 active QBs that have played at least 10 seasons...

Same goes for other positions...

Second table:

The QB/1 figure of 50.9 means that (for all active QBs) the average FF ranking when they played their first season was 50.9 (like I mentioned in the first posting - Carr was 24th, PManning 4th, Palmer 20th, Rodgers 74th - averaging all those rankings)... the QB/2 figure of 36.2 means that second year QBs are, on average, ranked 36th in FF - so, an impovement of 14 spots from year1 to year2... and so on...

Let me know if you need more explanations - or better examples!

 

[ruelvis]

i am intrigued. it definitely seems to make sense.

u should submit this as a freelance article where u can explain it a bit more and give examples...i'd like to know where your cutoffs were, if any, etc. it sounds like u included all active players.

i'd like to see examples of how accurate this info was last year. i.e. u made some predictions in your post but which ones would you have made last year and how did they pan out?

in addition, i'd like to see the range especially the highest anyone in that position and that level of experience reached (thus adding another table or incorporating it into the current tables). i.e. u make a big assumption about vernon davis, but i am curious to see how high has a rookie te ever ranked?

 

[Chase Stuart]

i am intrigued. it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

 

[ruelvis]

i am intrigued.  it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a steadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 8th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

 

[Chase Stuart]

i am intrigued. it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a staeadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 9th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

I think you're spot on there. There's definitely a lot of nobodies which pulls the data. That may or may not be a good thing.There's been a ton of studies on when WRs break out. Doug's article is a little old but I doubt the data has changed much. It might be something work running up again though either this year or next.

 

[JayMan]

i am intrigued.  it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a staeadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 9th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

Indeed, we see improvement for young WRs - but not as significant as the "3rd year WR explosion" theory would suggest... and obviously, the data is showing "survivor" bias - meaning that if a WR is not good enough, he won't last 9 years in the NFL - stating that every 9th, 10th, 12th year NFL WR veteran must be doing something good (KJohnson, Mason, Driver, RSmith are good examples)... but the fact remains, those guys still need to produce for their "generation" to have a good average ranking (i.e. not only because you are a 11 year veteran that you will automaticaly finish in the top20 WRs)I will get back later with examples... but for Vernon Davis - the only active TEs that finished in the top 12 at their positions in their rookie season are:

1. Cameron Cleeland - 1999 - NO - 54/684/6 - ranked: 2nd

2. Jeremy Shockey - 2002 - NyG - 74/894/2 - ranked: 3rd

3. Randy McMichael - 2002 - Mia - 39/485/4 - ranked: 9th

4. Heath Miller - 2005 - Pit - 39/459/6 - ranked: 11th

 

[JayMan]

i am intrigued.  it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a staeadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 9th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

I think you're spot on there. There's definitely a lot of nobodies which pulls the data. That may or may not be a good thing.There's been a ton of studies on when WRs break out. Doug's article is a little old but I doubt the data has changed much. It might be something work running up again though either this year or next.

Interesting point Chase (along with ruelvis) - I can see where this is coming from - but we can't just throw Ike Hilliard's stats out the window since he finished 97th and 82nd the last two years (while going as high as 22nd in 2000)... where to make the cut?... In fact, this is just telling me that we went from 37th in 2003 to 82nd in 2004: "hitting the wall"...Please state your suggestions - this can certainly be worked on...

 

[Chase Stuart]

i am intrigued. it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a staeadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 9th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

I think you're spot on there. There's definitely a lot of nobodies which pulls the data. That may or may not be a good thing.There's been a ton of studies on when WRs break out. Doug's article is a little old but I doubt the data has changed much. It might be something work running up again though either this year or next.

Interesting point Chase (along with ruelvis) - I can see where this is coming from - but we can't just throw Ike Hilliard's stats out the window since he finished 97th and 82nd the last two years (while going as high as 22nd in 2000)... where to make the cut?... In fact, this is just telling me that we went from 37th in 2003 to 82nd in 2004: "hitting the wall"...Please state your suggestions - this can certainly be worked on...

I'm sure lots of people on here can come up with good suggestions, but a clear statement of what your goal is with this data would help us focus on that.

 

[JayMan]

i am intrigued.  it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a staeadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 9th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

I think you're spot on there. There's definitely a lot of nobodies which pulls the data. That may or may not be a good thing.There's been a ton of studies on when WRs break out. Doug's article is a little old but I doubt the data has changed much. It might be something work running up again though either this year or next.

Interesting point Chase (along with ruelvis) - I can see where this is coming from - but we can't just throw Ike Hilliard's stats out the window since he finished 97th and 82nd the last two years (while going as high as 22nd in 2000)... where to make the cut?... In fact, this is just telling me that we went from 37th in 2003 to 82nd in 2004: "hitting the wall"...Please state your suggestions - this can certainly be worked on...

I'm sure lots of people on here can come up with good suggestions, but a clear statement of what your goal is with this data would help us focus on that.

The overall goal is to show the evolution of the average FF rank (by position) of players as a function of their NFL experience... Said in a different way - QBs finish, on average, 51st in their rookie season while moving up to the 36th spot in their second year... a 15 place improvement that has to be attributed to playing opportunities, overall knowledge of the playbook, better understanding of the defenses, better decision making, overall confidence given by the coaches and teamates, respect shown by adversaries and elimination of the "poor" rookie QBs who simply don't have what it takes to make it in the NFL...I'm just saying that we should not ignore what history can tell us, but obvisouly not base our opinions on it exclusively... just be educated by it...

If trends can be found - why not exploiting them?

I'm just trying to figure out the best way to "play with all this information"

 

[There it is]

I like this thinking a lot. Keep it up.

If we can glean any info, it's worth it and another tool we can use.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Chase Stuart]

i am intrigued. it definitely seems to make sense esp and supports the 3rd yr wr trend.

What about the data supports the 3rd yr wr trend ruelvis?

ha! i was revising my claim while u must have been typing yours. i was confused in thinking it was the overall FP scoring ranks (not per position) and how the 76.1 number in a 12 team league might be a decent thing. that combined with posts i see on here occasionally that wrs make big jumps in production during their 3rd yr. according to table 2 it appears they do but not what i'd call significant. now i'm a bit more confused than before. i'm now thinking the player pool is so large that it's hard to interpret this and apply it in a staeadfast way when it comes draft time. i.e. naturally the # of wrs in their 9th year will be lower and remove the low rankings (that significantly affect the mean) during the early years. i.e. teams aren't investing in the future of an 8 yr vet like they would a rookie or 2nd yr guy...thus u either perform or go home. there arent as many 8th yr wrs ranking in the hundreds to drag down that average position number. there still may be some merit in seeing where the dropoffs are for each position (from a trend of improved production to a trend of reduced production).

i hope that made sense

I think you're spot on there. There's definitely a lot of nobodies which pulls the data. That may or may not be a good thing.There's been a ton of studies on when WRs break out. Doug's article is a little old but I doubt the data has changed much. It might be something work running up again though either this year or next.

Interesting point Chase (along with ruelvis) - I can see where this is coming from - but we can't just throw Ike Hilliard's stats out the window since he finished 97th and 82nd the last two years (while going as high as 22nd in 2000)... where to make the cut?... In fact, this is just telling me that we went from 37th in 2003 to 82nd in 2004: "hitting the wall"...Please state your suggestions - this can certainly be worked on...

I'm sure lots of people on here can come up with good suggestions, but a clear statement of what your goal is with this data would help us focus on that.

The overall goal is to show the evolution of the average FF rank (by position) of players as a function of their NFL experience... Said in a different way - QBs finish, on average, 51st in their rookie season while moving up to the 36th spot in their second year... a 15 place improvement that has to be attributed to playing opportunities, overall knowledge of the playbook, better understanding of the defenses, better decision making, overall confidence given by the coaches and teamates, respect shown by adversaries and elimination of the "poor" rookie QBs who simply don't have what it takes to make it in the NFL...I'm just saying that we should not ignore what history can tell us, but obvisouly not base our opinions on it exclusively... just be educated by it...

If trends can be found - why not exploiting them?

I'm just trying to figure out the best way to "play with all this information"

Is the goal to find when we might expect the next top 10 QB? The next top 5? The next top QB?If it is, I'd structure it a bit differently. If it's to see what are the odds of any player in the NFL to be somewhere, then this is probably better suited for that.

(The way I'd structure it is to only look at guys who ever hit that particular milestone, and chart how they did every year of their career.)

 

[JayMan]

Fair enough Chase - and I agree with you on this (we know that certain players will never be on any FF team) ... we just need to define the "milestone" you mentioned - to restraint the database...

A good start might be "only active players that warranted a "starter" spot for at least one year in their career"... (i.e. finishing in the top 12/24/36/12 for QB/RB/WR/TE at least once in their career)...

That would restrict the numbers of players to:

28/48/70/29 - QB/RB/WR/TE

(from 84/182/205/117)

I'll look into this and get back with "upper echelon tables"...

 

[JayMan]

As mentioned in the last post...

The "upper echelon" tables - (for active players that have finished at least once in their career in the starter category 12/24/36/12 - QB/RB/WR/TE)

Number of active starter players:

#---QB---RB---WR---TE1---26---46---73---252---26---44---73---243---25---38---66---244---25---32---61---205---24---27---54---176---23---18---45---157---20---15---36---128---16---14---29----89---13---11---23----610--11----5---19----511--10----3---10----312---8----2----6----013---5----1----4----014---2----0----2----015---2----0----1----016---1----0----1----017---1----0----0----018---1----0----0----019---1----0----0----020---0----0----0----02. Average FF ranking for the players above:

#----QB----RB----WR----TE1---45.3--48.3--82.7--28.62---20.2--31.7--58.5--17.33---17.4--31.7--42.0--16.54---13.0--29.8--40.6--27.65---15.0--27.6--41.2--24.66---14.3--21.9--52.3--38.17---15.0--19.0--46.0--25.38---16.9--22.7--33.9--24.89---28.9--36.8--42.4--24.710--33.0--39.2--35.2--41.011--27.1--28.3--41.3--34.712--24.0--35.5--57.5---0.013--46.2--36.0--59.5---0.014---9.0---0.0--45.0---0.015--18.0---0.0--78.0---0.016--48.0---0.0--62.0---0.017--35.0---0.0---0.0---0.018--17.0---0.0---0.0---0.019--45.0---0.0---0.0---0.020---0.0---0.0---0.0---0.0

The improvement from "rookies to second year" is remarquable for every position... particularly for QBs (25 spots on average!) and WRs (24 spots on average)...The "starter wall" (production dropoff) seems to be at 8/9 years for QBs, 8/9 years for RBs, 11/12 years for WRs, 9/10 years for TEs...

 

[Chase Stuart]

That's interesting stuff JayMan. The way the study is set up I'm surprised that TEs look best in year 3 but RBs look best in year 7. I'd have to give this some more thought.

 

[JayMan]

That's interesting stuff JayMan. The way the study is set up I'm surprised that TEs look best in year 3 but RBs look best in year 7. I'd have to give this some more thought.

Here are the results for these in particular...7th year active RB with at least one year of starter ranking:

Name------------Year---ruYds--ruTds---Rec---reYds--reTds--RankPriest Holmes---2003---1420-----27----74-----690-----0------1Marshall Faulk--2000---1359-----18----81-----830-----8------1Edgerrin James--2005---1506-----13----44-----337-----1------5Curtis Martin---2001---1513-----10----53-----320-----0------5Ahman Green-----2004---1163------7----40-----275-----1-----13Tiki Barber-----2003---1216------2----69-----461-----1-----15Michael Pittman-2004----926------7----41-----391-----3-----16Jerome Bettis---1999---1091------7----21-----110-----0-----16Fred Taylor-----2004---1224------2----36-----345-----1-----20Stephen Davis---2002----820------7----23-----142-----1-----25Warrick Dunn----2003----672------3----37-----336-----2-----27Duce Staley-----2003----463------5----36-----382-----2-----28Moe Williams----2002----414-----11----27-----251-----0-----30Antowain Smith--2003----642------3----14------92-----0-----39Corey Dillon----2003----541------2----11------71-----0-----44same - 3rd year TE:

Name--------------Year--Rec--reYds--reTds--RankAntonio Gates-----2005--89---1101----10-----1Tony Gonzalez-----1999--76----849----11-----2Todd Heap---------2003--57----693-----3-----3Bubba Franks------2002--54----442-----7-----4Desmond Clark-----2001--51----566-----6-----5Alge Crumpler-----2003--44----552-----3-----5Randy McMichael---2004--73----791-----4-----5Jason Witten------2005--66----757-----6-----6Jeremy Shockey----2004--61----666-----6-----6Billy Miller------2002--51----613-----3-----7L.J. Smith--------2005--61----682-----3-----9Daniel Graham-----2004--30----364-----7-----9Stephen Alexander-2000--47----510-----2----10Dallas Clark------2005--37----488-----4----13Jerramy Stevens---2004--31----349-----3----19Itula Mili--------2000--28----288-----3----21Jeb Putzier-------2005--37----481-----0----22Cameron Cleeland--2001--13----138-----4----23Jermaine Wiggins--2001--14----133-----4----24Kyle Brady--------1997--22----238-----2----27Roland Williams---2000--11----102-----3----32Ernie Conwell-----1998--15----105-----0----45Christian Fauria--1997--10----110-----0----48Marcus Pollard----1997--10----116-----0----49

This year's candidates:3rd year TE: Ben Troupe and Chris Cooley

7th year RB: Thomas Jones and... Ricky Williams