JGalligan
Footballguy
For those of you who aren't cool enough haven't been members long enough to remember, this post is essentially the follow-up to an article I did a while back in which I promised to do some wide receiver stats analysis based on experience level but never really got around to it... until now. So apologies for the massively long delay, but hey -- better late than never, yeah? Anyway, you can read the original if you'd like by clicking right here or you can just dive headlong into the mayhem and madness below straightaway. Your call, champ!
* * * *
Note: The following article was originally published, in-full, at GridironGrotto.com.
Opinions don’t vary too wildly in regards to which year a wide receiver should, on average, be expected to “break out”, the passion and vehemence in which most people back up their particular side in the argument absolutely does. Some swear by the generally held three year rule of thumb whereas others will damn near challenge you to a duel should you disagree with their two or even four year theory. I’ve personally seen things damn near end in fisticuffs over this very topic. Granted, there was much in the way of liquor being and already having been consumed, but that’s beside the point.
While I managed to attempt to offer some insight into this particular debate several years back by way of looking at the average stat lines for wideouts based on their year of experience, ultimately it was discovered there was a better way to have gone about things. As is the case most of the time whenever I try my hand at anything having to do with math whatsoever.
This alternative approach mainly dealt with not including any scrubs who barely even managed to stay in the league for a few years, much less what could be considered a long and fruitful career.
Fast forward a few years to the present day where I’ve finally gained the time and assets necessary to embark once again on this statistically based Vision Quest. Thankfully for all of us, this time I’ve got the wisdom and trial-by-error experience I’ve garnered over the past few years. As far as you know…
I initially kicked things off by compiling a list of all rookie wide receivers from the 2002 – 2005 time frame and subsequently siphoned through them to filter out a more refined list of players. Players who’d gone on to enjoy relatively fruitful careers in the time since their inaugural rookie year — in terms of longevity, at least.
While the sample size may prove to be a bit small at 20 players total, it should at least give us a good gauge in regards to whether or not it’ll be worth diving down this mathematically daunting bad boy even further.
To start things off, here’s the list of the 20 wide receivers used in the analysis (in no particular order):
Andre Johnson
Bryant Johnson
Nate Burleson
Brandon Lloyd
Larry Fitzgerald
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Bernard Berrian
Patrick Crayton
Michael Jenkins
Jerricho Cotchery
Michael Clayton
Braylon Edwards
Roddy White
Antwaan Randle El
Deion Branch
Antonio Bryant
Javon Walker
Donte Stallworth
Jabar Gaffney
A pretty well-rounded group if I do say so myself. Certainly no motley crew by any means at the very least.
The next step in the research process involved me painstakingly inserting into an Excel spreadsheet the yearly season statistics for each player one-by-one. Suffice it to say, it certainly wasn’t the most enjoyable portion of this entire shindig, but what’s important is that it’s all finished and I can hopefully take a break from copy pasting things for a few months.
Before I calculated the collective season average for the group for each year/season of experience, I went through the list and notated the definitive “breakout” year for the player in addition to their best and worst year as a pro. Generally, if a player didn’t participate in at least eight games for that particular year, I steered clear of counting it in one of the aforementioned markers. Mainly because I figured it was safe to assume there were probably some injury issues at play there and I didn’t want their gross, tainted injury stats messing up good time.
The benchmark for a “breakout” season was set within the range of at least 35 receptions, 500 receiving yards and a minimum of two touchdowns. On average for the whole group, the second year was the most likely to hold host to one of these breakout years believe it or not. But we’ll probably need to hold off on whether or not that tells us anything of value until we decide that the aforementioned “benchmark” requirement was a reasonable one. You know, because I pretty much just pulled it out of my ### after taking a quick glance at the Top 100 receiving stat rankings in terms of yards and receptions the past few seasons.
The best season for the group on average was awarded to the fourth overall year of a prospective career, whereas the sixth season took home the title of the worst season when it was all said and done. Obviously these need to be taken with several vials of salt for a whole host of different reasons, but thankfully, we do have an exceptionally tasty group of morsels in the next batch of data that was garnered below. Seriously, they’re frigging delicious!
What exactly do these tasty group of morsels entail you’re probably asking? Well, what follows is the average stat line for each year of a theoretical wide receiver’s career. Please do enjoy and don’t read through it all too fast or you’ll just give yourself a stomach ache.
Rookie Year:
36.3 receptions for 517.3 receiving yards and 3.5 touchdowns (14.2 yards per reception, 2.5 receptions/35.2 yards per game)
Year Two:
44.1 receptions for 625.9 receiving yards and 3.9 touchdowns (14.5 yards per reception, 3.0 receptions/42.1 yards per game)
Year Three:
57.1 receptions for 795.6 receiving yards and 5.3 touchdowns (13.6 yards per reception, 3.9 receptions/53.3 yards per game)
Year Four:
56.8 receptions for 771.8 receiving yards and 3.9 touchdowns (13.4 yards per reception, 3.9 receptions/51.4 yards per game)
Year Five:
48.6 receptions for 709.6 receiving yards and 4.8 touchdowns (14.2 yards per reception, 3.3 receptions/48.3 yards per game)
Year Six:
52.2 receptions for 706.7 receiving yards and 4.6 touchdowns (13.6 yards per reception, 3.8 receptions/50.3 yards per game)
Year Seven:
40.8 receptions for 540.0 receiving yards and 3.0 touchdowns (12.9 yards per reception, 3.2 receptions/42.8 yards per game)
Year Eight:
34.8 receptions for 489.1 receiving yards and 2.6 touchdowns (14.5 yards per reception, 2.5 receptions/34.7 yards per game)
According to these averages, both Year Three and Year Four appear to be the “sweet spot” for receivers — at least in terms of both/either breaking out and/or having the best season of their respective careers. It’s interesting to note, however, the rise from 3.9 touchdowns on average in Year Two up to 5.1 in Year Three and then right back down to 3.9 again in Year Four. Start your speculation engines, boys and girls. Because there’s more than enough here to keep us going for like… I don’t even know but it’s certainly a long time!
As if all this wasn’t already enough, I’m actually planning on sorting the wideouts used in this particular analysis into groups based on the type of wide receiver they are/were. A la, WR1, slot, deep threat, etc. etc.
As always, if you have any ideas, advice or suggestions on how to make this data analysis any better or more fit for human consumption, please don’t hesitate to throw it out there. Because it will be snatched up and utilized with much appreciation.
* * * *
Note: The following article was originally published, in-full, at GridironGrotto.com.
Opinions don’t vary too wildly in regards to which year a wide receiver should, on average, be expected to “break out”, the passion and vehemence in which most people back up their particular side in the argument absolutely does. Some swear by the generally held three year rule of thumb whereas others will damn near challenge you to a duel should you disagree with their two or even four year theory. I’ve personally seen things damn near end in fisticuffs over this very topic. Granted, there was much in the way of liquor being and already having been consumed, but that’s beside the point.
While I managed to attempt to offer some insight into this particular debate several years back by way of looking at the average stat lines for wideouts based on their year of experience, ultimately it was discovered there was a better way to have gone about things. As is the case most of the time whenever I try my hand at anything having to do with math whatsoever.
This alternative approach mainly dealt with not including any scrubs who barely even managed to stay in the league for a few years, much less what could be considered a long and fruitful career.
Fast forward a few years to the present day where I’ve finally gained the time and assets necessary to embark once again on this statistically based Vision Quest. Thankfully for all of us, this time I’ve got the wisdom and trial-by-error experience I’ve garnered over the past few years. As far as you know…
I initially kicked things off by compiling a list of all rookie wide receivers from the 2002 – 2005 time frame and subsequently siphoned through them to filter out a more refined list of players. Players who’d gone on to enjoy relatively fruitful careers in the time since their inaugural rookie year — in terms of longevity, at least.
While the sample size may prove to be a bit small at 20 players total, it should at least give us a good gauge in regards to whether or not it’ll be worth diving down this mathematically daunting bad boy even further.
To start things off, here’s the list of the 20 wide receivers used in the analysis (in no particular order):
Andre Johnson
Bryant Johnson
Nate Burleson
Brandon Lloyd
Larry Fitzgerald
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Bernard Berrian
Patrick Crayton
Michael Jenkins
Jerricho Cotchery
Michael Clayton
Braylon Edwards
Roddy White
Antwaan Randle El
Deion Branch
Antonio Bryant
Javon Walker
Donte Stallworth
Jabar Gaffney
A pretty well-rounded group if I do say so myself. Certainly no motley crew by any means at the very least.
The next step in the research process involved me painstakingly inserting into an Excel spreadsheet the yearly season statistics for each player one-by-one. Suffice it to say, it certainly wasn’t the most enjoyable portion of this entire shindig, but what’s important is that it’s all finished and I can hopefully take a break from copy pasting things for a few months.
Before I calculated the collective season average for the group for each year/season of experience, I went through the list and notated the definitive “breakout” year for the player in addition to their best and worst year as a pro. Generally, if a player didn’t participate in at least eight games for that particular year, I steered clear of counting it in one of the aforementioned markers. Mainly because I figured it was safe to assume there were probably some injury issues at play there and I didn’t want their gross, tainted injury stats messing up good time.
The benchmark for a “breakout” season was set within the range of at least 35 receptions, 500 receiving yards and a minimum of two touchdowns. On average for the whole group, the second year was the most likely to hold host to one of these breakout years believe it or not. But we’ll probably need to hold off on whether or not that tells us anything of value until we decide that the aforementioned “benchmark” requirement was a reasonable one. You know, because I pretty much just pulled it out of my ### after taking a quick glance at the Top 100 receiving stat rankings in terms of yards and receptions the past few seasons.
The best season for the group on average was awarded to the fourth overall year of a prospective career, whereas the sixth season took home the title of the worst season when it was all said and done. Obviously these need to be taken with several vials of salt for a whole host of different reasons, but thankfully, we do have an exceptionally tasty group of morsels in the next batch of data that was garnered below. Seriously, they’re frigging delicious!
What exactly do these tasty group of morsels entail you’re probably asking? Well, what follows is the average stat line for each year of a theoretical wide receiver’s career. Please do enjoy and don’t read through it all too fast or you’ll just give yourself a stomach ache.
Rookie Year:
36.3 receptions for 517.3 receiving yards and 3.5 touchdowns (14.2 yards per reception, 2.5 receptions/35.2 yards per game)
Year Two:
44.1 receptions for 625.9 receiving yards and 3.9 touchdowns (14.5 yards per reception, 3.0 receptions/42.1 yards per game)
Year Three:
57.1 receptions for 795.6 receiving yards and 5.3 touchdowns (13.6 yards per reception, 3.9 receptions/53.3 yards per game)
Year Four:
56.8 receptions for 771.8 receiving yards and 3.9 touchdowns (13.4 yards per reception, 3.9 receptions/51.4 yards per game)
Year Five:
48.6 receptions for 709.6 receiving yards and 4.8 touchdowns (14.2 yards per reception, 3.3 receptions/48.3 yards per game)
Year Six:
52.2 receptions for 706.7 receiving yards and 4.6 touchdowns (13.6 yards per reception, 3.8 receptions/50.3 yards per game)
Year Seven:
40.8 receptions for 540.0 receiving yards and 3.0 touchdowns (12.9 yards per reception, 3.2 receptions/42.8 yards per game)
Year Eight:
34.8 receptions for 489.1 receiving yards and 2.6 touchdowns (14.5 yards per reception, 2.5 receptions/34.7 yards per game)
According to these averages, both Year Three and Year Four appear to be the “sweet spot” for receivers — at least in terms of both/either breaking out and/or having the best season of their respective careers. It’s interesting to note, however, the rise from 3.9 touchdowns on average in Year Two up to 5.1 in Year Three and then right back down to 3.9 again in Year Four. Start your speculation engines, boys and girls. Because there’s more than enough here to keep us going for like… I don’t even know but it’s certainly a long time!
As if all this wasn’t already enough, I’m actually planning on sorting the wideouts used in this particular analysis into groups based on the type of wide receiver they are/were. A la, WR1, slot, deep threat, etc. etc.
As always, if you have any ideas, advice or suggestions on how to make this data analysis any better or more fit for human consumption, please don’t hesitate to throw it out there. Because it will be snatched up and utilized with much appreciation.
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