Axe Elf
Footballguy
For those of you who may be unfamiliar with Axe Elf’s “Sleepers & Stinkers,” this is where I provide you with a graduate level “Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em” list. I intend to go beyond the simple advice of starting anyone you drafted in the first three rounds, and instead give you a few solid starters you might find on your bench or on the waiver wire--the “Sleepers.” Conversely, where there are some guys you might normally start in most weeks, I will also let you know if they are a “Stinker” for the week in question, and could therefore be benched if you have any other reasonable alternative.
And so, without further ado, let us proceed, position by position, with the Week 1 Sleepers & Stinkers...
QBs
Sleepers
Carson Palmer
My expectations are tempered a bit by the broken leg of their first round draft pick and starting offensive guard Jonathan Cooper, but Palmer is still going to come out throwing in the new Bruce Arians offense that seems tailor-made for his skillset. People think St. Louis has such a great defense, but they were really only middle-of-the-road (15th) against the pass in 2012. This high octane offense should be able to move the ball in the Edward Jones Dome, and since the Cardinals had no rushing TDs in the preseason, I have to pencil in 300/3 for Palmer, with a fumble from the pressure the Rams can get on the QB.
Michael Vick
Here’s a guy who likes to be the center of attention--unless of course it’s in the shower of a penitentiary--but playing on Monday Night Football should bring out his best. Vick will also be unveiling a new offense for his team--one where he should run plenty of plays, have lots of opportunities for one of his RB dumpoffs to turn into a long gainer, and might even get a chance to run one in on top of 2 throwing TDs against last year’s #30 pass defense (which also allowed long TD runs to both Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene in a preseason game). I would look for a pretty nice night from Vick--250/2 with 30/1 on the ground--but Vick being Vick you also have to count on at least one INT.
Brandon Weeden
In just over four quarters of preseason play, Weeden put up 334 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a QB rating of 99.9--the new Norv Turner offense seems to suit him. He will be debuting that offense at home against last year’s #27 pass defense--the Miami Dolphins--which lost a starting CB and 2009 2nd round pick Sean Smith to the Chiefs in the offseason. If Josh Gordon was starting, this would be just about a perfect storm for Weeden, but between Little, Cameron, Bess, Benjamin and Richardson, Weeden should still be good for 275/2--minimum--in an easy win over the ‘Phins.
Terrelle Pryor
I really can’t imagine a situation in which you would be forced to start Terrelle Pryor in Week 1--maybe you drafted early, and your fantasy QBs were what, Mark Sanchez and Matt Flynn? So it’s not like anyone cares, but just for the record, Pryor’s scrambles and garbage time heroics bear watching for future emergencies. The Colts were in the bottom dozen against the pass last year, but it’s really Pryor’s feet that give him the most potential. I’m going to call 190/1 passing with an INT, and 50/1 rushing for a tidy little 20-point fantasy outing.
Stinkers
Russell Wilson
Everyone talks about the Seattle defense, but the Carolina defense has probably made the most improvement of any team this offseason. They used their first and second round picks on elite defensive linemen, and you better believe that they will be focused on containing and pressuring Russell Wilson. One of Wilson’s top WRs (Rice) has sat out most of the preseason, so you might expect the chemistry to be a little rusty there, and you might expect Seattle to do more business on the ground than in the air anyway. Russell will do well to top 200 yards and a TD with 25 rushing yards--and an INT.
Jay Cutler
Cincinnati seems to be the sleeper D darling of the fantasy underworld this preseason. (Is it because of Hard Knocks? I never watched it.) So when facing a known INT factory like Cutler, I’ll bite. Who knows if Marshall even has his head on straight yet (I’m not hip to his thoughts--did you see what I did there?), and outside of him, the Bengals don’t really even have to cover anyone. Cutler throws 2 INTs trying to force the ball to Marshall, and posts 225/1 otherwise.
Aaron Rodgers
This offensive line was a wreck to begin with, and after a couple more preseason hits, they started to look like a lambskin prophylactic trying to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus. I mean there were defensive players just standing in the backfield at times, checking their watches as they waited for Lacy to get the handoff. I don’t mean to be flippant about a player’s health, but I seriously think Rodgers will be lucky to get out of San Francisco healthy. Given that Rodgers throws up about seven weeks of production under 15 fantasy points in any given year anyway, this seems like a perfect time for him to post another one.
RBs
Sleepers
Daryl Richardson
From what I saw in preseason, the Rams’ passing game isn’t anywhere near what they would like it to be yet. The Cardinals’ defense was one of the worst against the run last season (#28). That adds up to a dome-load of opportunity for second-year back Daryl Richardson, who should touch the ball a good 25 times in this game. That puts him in line for about 110 combined yards with a score.
Ronnie Hillman
The Ravens are preparing for Demaryius Thomas--and keeping an eye on the other Thomas as well. They’re preparing for Wes Welker underneath and Eric Decker in the red zone. I don’t know how much they will have left over to prepare for the three-headed monster in the Broncos’ backfield, and “Darren Sproles Lite” should be the main beneficiary--after all, he is still the nominal “starter.” In a PPR league, Hillman should post in excess of 15 fantasy points on opening night.
Vick Ballard
The Colts should be ahead for most of this game, and they will feel no need to rush Ahmad Bradshaw back into a heavy load at RB. That means that Luck should be handing off to Ballard frequently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ballard approach 20 touches in this game, and at his career average of 3.9 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per catch, that’s good for about 90 yards--and a score.
Ben Tate
The Texans are in no hurry to rush Arian Foster back into heavy duty either, and that means a better than average game for Ben Tate in what should be another easy victory. Tate should see about 75 combined yards and a TD.
Stinkers
LeSean McCoy
A crafty veteran like Mike Shanahan isn’t going to let a rookie NFL coach come onto his home turf in the Monday Night Football opener and run all over last year’s 5th-best rushing defense--it just ain’t gonna happen. McCoy is going to have more Redskins on him than General Custer. 50 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, and no score is the call.
Ray Rice
Baltimore is going to have to abandon their RBBC plans pretty early on and throw the ball to try to keep up with Denver. When they DO run, Denver has one of the best run defenses in the league (#3 in 2012) waiting to stuff them. Flacco will target Rice in the passing game to try to get him into space at times, but it won’t be enough. Rice will go scoreless on 60 yards rushing and 30 yards receiving.
CJ Spiller
Spiller got a bit of a break when it was announced that Manuel will start--at least he won’t be facing nine or ten men in the box. Still, he’s the main attraction in a rushing scheme that was 25th in the nation in rushing attempts but only 41st in the nation in rushing yards last year in the college ranks at Syracuse; I’m not expecting any fireworks at the pro level. New England’s defense is savvy enough to limit Spiller to single digit fantasy points.
Arian Foster
To piggyback off of Ben Tate’s “sleeper” status, Foster will likely take a seat after his first 60 yards and a TD. Maybe not a horrible night, but it’s not what you wanted from your first round pick, either.
WRs
Sleepers
Torrey Smith
No Champ Bailey means that Torrey Smith’s chances of catching long TDs goes up about 125%--and believe me, the Ravens will have to take their shots to stay close to Denver’s high octane offense. I’m going to say he fields 2 TDs on 6 catches for 140 yards. (update miss just a smidge on this one)
DeSean Jackson
I don’t know if DJax is even a “sleeper” any more. He could be obtained pretty cheaply if you drafted early, but as Maclin got hurt, and as Vick won the starting job--and then began looking sharper and sharper in the preseason--Jackson slowly crept up and up the rankings into legitimate WR2 territory. Still, this should be a banner night for Jackson as Washington concentrates on their specialty--stopping the run--and lets Philadelphia exploit their weakness--stopping the pass. Washington had the #30 passing defense in 2012, and there isn’t really anyone else who can seriously compete for Vick’s targets. I’d like to think Jackson might add a second TD if he breaks 130 yards, but that might be a little optimistic. Still, he should add about 8 points in PPR leagues on that many catches.
Antonio Brown
Pittsburgh’s rushing attack figures to be pretty anemic this week. Tennessee’s pass defense was pretty anemic all of last year (#26), and Roethlisberger torched them for 363 yards in their 2012 meeting. What can Brown do for you? Oh, probably about 7 catches for 120 yards and a TD.
Greg Little
Little is in the right place at the right time. As noted when promoting Brandon Weeden above, this is the home opener for Norv Turner’s new offense, and the hapless #27 Dolphins’ pass defense is the victim. Josh Gordon’s suspension means that Little will be the beneficiary of all those WR1 targets, and go home with 7 catches for 100 yards and a score in his back pocket.
Vincent Brown
Now is the time that we find out if that guy who was looking like a worldbeater in last year’s preseason (before breaking his ankle) is the real deal or not. I tend to think that he is--and that he is the best receiver on the field for the Chargers. I will reserve judgment on Phillip Rivers’ ability to exploit that advantage, for now, but I’d still play Vince for an expected 6 receptions, 90 yards and a TD.
Jeremy Kerley
Tampa Bay’s last-place pass defense figures to be improved this year with the addition of Darrelle Revis--although this is his first game back after a serious ACL injury. I’m not sure if Revis will be covering Hill, Kerley, or even Holmes, if Holmes makes an appearance. Still, Kerley is the most compatible WR with Geno Smith, so if any Jet is going to be startable in this game, it’s him. I’ll go modest and say 5 grabs for 60 yards and a TD--but that’s not bad for a 15th round pick.
Stinkers
Dwayne Bowe
I really hate to put this guy on the Stinkers list, ‘cause I have him in several leagues myself--but I hafta say that I don’t really like what I saw in preseason. Bowe wasn’t even targeted in three of the team’s four preseason games, and while he had a respectable 6 catches for 73 yards in the third, he also had a bad drop. Jacksonville is in the lower third of the league against the pass, but if they try to stop anyone, they’re going to try to stop Bowe--and with the potential lead that Charles and the ground game can give the Chiefs, I’m not sure Reid will feel that he really needs him anyway. Bowe disappoints his owners with 3 catches for 45 yards and no score.
Cecil Shorts
On the other side of the line in the KC/JAX game, Blaine Gabbert is expected to start with a sore hand. Kansas City’s already superior secondary added Miami’s 2009 2nd round pick Sean Smith in the offseason, and I think they may be catching more of Gabbert’s passes than Jacksonville receivers will. Shorts’ stats should be brief (did you see what I did there?)--5 catches for 60 yards; no TD.
Mike Wallace
It seemed that Wallace and Tannehill were having trouble developing chemistry in the preseason anyway, and being blanketed by all-pro cornerback Joe Haden shouldn’t make things any easier for Wallace to establish a rapport in the season opener. Wallace lays the first of many eggs to come with a 3 catch, 50 yard, 0 TD performance.
Greg Jennings
Ponder this (did you see what I did there?--you’re getting tired of this, aren’t you)--the Vikings’ QB is to the Packers’ QB what Motel 6 is to Caesar’s Palace. Jennings is about 50 years old, coming off a serious injury, and the Vikings are going to run first, second and third. If they do try to pass, Ponder will be introduced to the Lions’ defensive line Fairley Suh (“fairly soon”--did you see what... oh never mind). Jennings won’t see more than 4 catches for 50 yards, and if anyone catches a TD on this team, it will be Rudolph.
Jordy Nelson
Jordy is the Packers’ long ball hitter--the guy who goes deep. To catch passes on a deep pattern, the QB has to have time to throw. Rodgers won’t (see Stinkers above). Nelson suffers. 3 catches for 55 yards, no TD.
Kenbrell Thompkins
It almost seems like cherry picking to put an undrafted rookie free agent on a Stinkers list, but from the number of “WDIS” questions, and the way he was being drafted in the last week, you’d think Kenbrell Thompkins was the second coming of Randy Moss. I’m here to pour water on the fire and remind you that this is an undrafted rookie free agent in his first NFL game, and if you’re even thinking of starting him, then you either had one of the worst drafts in history, or you’ve already drank the Kool-Aid and nothing I can say will change your mind. Give him 3 catches for 45 yards, but any higher expectations would be quite starry-eyed, as the Patriots won’t have to do much other than hand off to Ridley to win this one.
TEs
Sleepers
Antonio Gates
Vincent Brown and Antonio Gates should be Phillip Rivers’ primary targets in a game where they will be forced to throw--a lot. Gates has been slimmer and faster in preseason, and looking good gaining separation and catching what has been thrown to him. Gates caught 7 TDs last season, and could well return to top-5 status with a couple hundred more yards, now that the receiving options in San Diego have thinned. The comeback starts now--6 catches, 70 yards and a TD.
Jordan Cameron
He’s only a borderline sleeper after the preseason that he had, but he should still outperform his season average on a night without Josh Gordon in the lineup, and a weak defense opposing him--see Brandon Weeden and Greg Little above. Cameron easily catches 4 balls for 55 yards and a score; more than that wouldn’t surprise me greatly.
Ed Dickson
Dickson has been under the radar as he recuperated from a preseason hamstring injury, but he’s good to go for the season opener, and stands to benefit from the more serious injury to Dennis Pitta. He may be a better 2nd receiver than any of the Ravens’ other WRs, so I’ll pencil him in for 5 catches, 50 yards and a TD.
Julius Thomas
I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in the Denver offense--but they didn’t make him the starting TE just to block. Giving Thomas a heavy load tonight means that every other opposing defensive coordinator that the Broncos face will have one more thing to worry about. I like Thomas to catch 4 balls for 45 yards and a score. (Update HIT big time)
Brandon Myers
In last year’s season opener against Dallas, Eli Manning fed Martellus Bennett 4 receptions for 40 yards and a TD. History tends to repeat itself.
Anthony Fasano
Somewhat surprisingly, Fasano has been targeted a lot in the first team preseason offense this season. Look for him to complement the swing passes to Charles as a dumpoff option on the other side of the field--and if that happens in the red zone, Fasano is a good bet to convert one of his 3 catches into a score to go along with his 25 yards.
Stinkers
Martellus Bennett
I really hope you didn’t draft this guy to start for you. I think he was targeted a negative number of times in the preseason--the only guy wrapped in tape who was more invisible was Claude Rains. If he catches 2 balls for 20 yards I will be shocked.
Owen Daniels
He just won’t be needed. Foster and Tate should be effective moving the chains, and Johnson and Hopkins will tag team the receptions. 2 catches for 25 yards is a reasonable ceiling here.
Greg Olsen
He’ll probably be covered like a WR2 by the excellent Seattle defense, which limits his upside severely. 3 catches for 30 yards and no score seems likely.
Jared Cook
The St. Louis TE hasn’t been fantasy relevant in forever--not even when they that offense was called the Greatest Show on Turf. I don’t expect Cook to break formation. On the plus side, there’s not much else going on for Bradford in the passing game right now, so Cook probably has the best chance of any of my stinkers to outperform my expectations. I’ll say 3 for 35, but a red zone look could change all that.
And so, without further ado, let us proceed, position by position, with the Week 1 Sleepers & Stinkers...
QBs
Sleepers
Carson Palmer
My expectations are tempered a bit by the broken leg of their first round draft pick and starting offensive guard Jonathan Cooper, but Palmer is still going to come out throwing in the new Bruce Arians offense that seems tailor-made for his skillset. People think St. Louis has such a great defense, but they were really only middle-of-the-road (15th) against the pass in 2012. This high octane offense should be able to move the ball in the Edward Jones Dome, and since the Cardinals had no rushing TDs in the preseason, I have to pencil in 300/3 for Palmer, with a fumble from the pressure the Rams can get on the QB.
Michael Vick
Here’s a guy who likes to be the center of attention--unless of course it’s in the shower of a penitentiary--but playing on Monday Night Football should bring out his best. Vick will also be unveiling a new offense for his team--one where he should run plenty of plays, have lots of opportunities for one of his RB dumpoffs to turn into a long gainer, and might even get a chance to run one in on top of 2 throwing TDs against last year’s #30 pass defense (which also allowed long TD runs to both Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene in a preseason game). I would look for a pretty nice night from Vick--250/2 with 30/1 on the ground--but Vick being Vick you also have to count on at least one INT.
Brandon Weeden
In just over four quarters of preseason play, Weeden put up 334 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs and a QB rating of 99.9--the new Norv Turner offense seems to suit him. He will be debuting that offense at home against last year’s #27 pass defense--the Miami Dolphins--which lost a starting CB and 2009 2nd round pick Sean Smith to the Chiefs in the offseason. If Josh Gordon was starting, this would be just about a perfect storm for Weeden, but between Little, Cameron, Bess, Benjamin and Richardson, Weeden should still be good for 275/2--minimum--in an easy win over the ‘Phins.
Terrelle Pryor
I really can’t imagine a situation in which you would be forced to start Terrelle Pryor in Week 1--maybe you drafted early, and your fantasy QBs were what, Mark Sanchez and Matt Flynn? So it’s not like anyone cares, but just for the record, Pryor’s scrambles and garbage time heroics bear watching for future emergencies. The Colts were in the bottom dozen against the pass last year, but it’s really Pryor’s feet that give him the most potential. I’m going to call 190/1 passing with an INT, and 50/1 rushing for a tidy little 20-point fantasy outing.
Stinkers
Russell Wilson
Everyone talks about the Seattle defense, but the Carolina defense has probably made the most improvement of any team this offseason. They used their first and second round picks on elite defensive linemen, and you better believe that they will be focused on containing and pressuring Russell Wilson. One of Wilson’s top WRs (Rice) has sat out most of the preseason, so you might expect the chemistry to be a little rusty there, and you might expect Seattle to do more business on the ground than in the air anyway. Russell will do well to top 200 yards and a TD with 25 rushing yards--and an INT.
Jay Cutler
Cincinnati seems to be the sleeper D darling of the fantasy underworld this preseason. (Is it because of Hard Knocks? I never watched it.) So when facing a known INT factory like Cutler, I’ll bite. Who knows if Marshall even has his head on straight yet (I’m not hip to his thoughts--did you see what I did there?), and outside of him, the Bengals don’t really even have to cover anyone. Cutler throws 2 INTs trying to force the ball to Marshall, and posts 225/1 otherwise.
Aaron Rodgers
This offensive line was a wreck to begin with, and after a couple more preseason hits, they started to look like a lambskin prophylactic trying to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus. I mean there were defensive players just standing in the backfield at times, checking their watches as they waited for Lacy to get the handoff. I don’t mean to be flippant about a player’s health, but I seriously think Rodgers will be lucky to get out of San Francisco healthy. Given that Rodgers throws up about seven weeks of production under 15 fantasy points in any given year anyway, this seems like a perfect time for him to post another one.
RBs
Sleepers
Daryl Richardson
From what I saw in preseason, the Rams’ passing game isn’t anywhere near what they would like it to be yet. The Cardinals’ defense was one of the worst against the run last season (#28). That adds up to a dome-load of opportunity for second-year back Daryl Richardson, who should touch the ball a good 25 times in this game. That puts him in line for about 110 combined yards with a score.
Ronnie Hillman
The Ravens are preparing for Demaryius Thomas--and keeping an eye on the other Thomas as well. They’re preparing for Wes Welker underneath and Eric Decker in the red zone. I don’t know how much they will have left over to prepare for the three-headed monster in the Broncos’ backfield, and “Darren Sproles Lite” should be the main beneficiary--after all, he is still the nominal “starter.” In a PPR league, Hillman should post in excess of 15 fantasy points on opening night.
Vick Ballard
The Colts should be ahead for most of this game, and they will feel no need to rush Ahmad Bradshaw back into a heavy load at RB. That means that Luck should be handing off to Ballard frequently. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ballard approach 20 touches in this game, and at his career average of 3.9 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per catch, that’s good for about 90 yards--and a score.
Ben Tate
The Texans are in no hurry to rush Arian Foster back into heavy duty either, and that means a better than average game for Ben Tate in what should be another easy victory. Tate should see about 75 combined yards and a TD.
Stinkers
LeSean McCoy
A crafty veteran like Mike Shanahan isn’t going to let a rookie NFL coach come onto his home turf in the Monday Night Football opener and run all over last year’s 5th-best rushing defense--it just ain’t gonna happen. McCoy is going to have more Redskins on him than General Custer. 50 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving, and no score is the call.
Ray Rice
Baltimore is going to have to abandon their RBBC plans pretty early on and throw the ball to try to keep up with Denver. When they DO run, Denver has one of the best run defenses in the league (#3 in 2012) waiting to stuff them. Flacco will target Rice in the passing game to try to get him into space at times, but it won’t be enough. Rice will go scoreless on 60 yards rushing and 30 yards receiving.
CJ Spiller
Spiller got a bit of a break when it was announced that Manuel will start--at least he won’t be facing nine or ten men in the box. Still, he’s the main attraction in a rushing scheme that was 25th in the nation in rushing attempts but only 41st in the nation in rushing yards last year in the college ranks at Syracuse; I’m not expecting any fireworks at the pro level. New England’s defense is savvy enough to limit Spiller to single digit fantasy points.
Arian Foster
To piggyback off of Ben Tate’s “sleeper” status, Foster will likely take a seat after his first 60 yards and a TD. Maybe not a horrible night, but it’s not what you wanted from your first round pick, either.
WRs
Sleepers
Torrey Smith
No Champ Bailey means that Torrey Smith’s chances of catching long TDs goes up about 125%--and believe me, the Ravens will have to take their shots to stay close to Denver’s high octane offense. I’m going to say he fields 2 TDs on 6 catches for 140 yards. (update miss just a smidge on this one)
DeSean Jackson
I don’t know if DJax is even a “sleeper” any more. He could be obtained pretty cheaply if you drafted early, but as Maclin got hurt, and as Vick won the starting job--and then began looking sharper and sharper in the preseason--Jackson slowly crept up and up the rankings into legitimate WR2 territory. Still, this should be a banner night for Jackson as Washington concentrates on their specialty--stopping the run--and lets Philadelphia exploit their weakness--stopping the pass. Washington had the #30 passing defense in 2012, and there isn’t really anyone else who can seriously compete for Vick’s targets. I’d like to think Jackson might add a second TD if he breaks 130 yards, but that might be a little optimistic. Still, he should add about 8 points in PPR leagues on that many catches.
Antonio Brown
Pittsburgh’s rushing attack figures to be pretty anemic this week. Tennessee’s pass defense was pretty anemic all of last year (#26), and Roethlisberger torched them for 363 yards in their 2012 meeting. What can Brown do for you? Oh, probably about 7 catches for 120 yards and a TD.
Greg Little
Little is in the right place at the right time. As noted when promoting Brandon Weeden above, this is the home opener for Norv Turner’s new offense, and the hapless #27 Dolphins’ pass defense is the victim. Josh Gordon’s suspension means that Little will be the beneficiary of all those WR1 targets, and go home with 7 catches for 100 yards and a score in his back pocket.
Vincent Brown
Now is the time that we find out if that guy who was looking like a worldbeater in last year’s preseason (before breaking his ankle) is the real deal or not. I tend to think that he is--and that he is the best receiver on the field for the Chargers. I will reserve judgment on Phillip Rivers’ ability to exploit that advantage, for now, but I’d still play Vince for an expected 6 receptions, 90 yards and a TD.
Jeremy Kerley
Tampa Bay’s last-place pass defense figures to be improved this year with the addition of Darrelle Revis--although this is his first game back after a serious ACL injury. I’m not sure if Revis will be covering Hill, Kerley, or even Holmes, if Holmes makes an appearance. Still, Kerley is the most compatible WR with Geno Smith, so if any Jet is going to be startable in this game, it’s him. I’ll go modest and say 5 grabs for 60 yards and a TD--but that’s not bad for a 15th round pick.
Stinkers
Dwayne Bowe
I really hate to put this guy on the Stinkers list, ‘cause I have him in several leagues myself--but I hafta say that I don’t really like what I saw in preseason. Bowe wasn’t even targeted in three of the team’s four preseason games, and while he had a respectable 6 catches for 73 yards in the third, he also had a bad drop. Jacksonville is in the lower third of the league against the pass, but if they try to stop anyone, they’re going to try to stop Bowe--and with the potential lead that Charles and the ground game can give the Chiefs, I’m not sure Reid will feel that he really needs him anyway. Bowe disappoints his owners with 3 catches for 45 yards and no score.
Cecil Shorts
On the other side of the line in the KC/JAX game, Blaine Gabbert is expected to start with a sore hand. Kansas City’s already superior secondary added Miami’s 2009 2nd round pick Sean Smith in the offseason, and I think they may be catching more of Gabbert’s passes than Jacksonville receivers will. Shorts’ stats should be brief (did you see what I did there?)--5 catches for 60 yards; no TD.
Mike Wallace
It seemed that Wallace and Tannehill were having trouble developing chemistry in the preseason anyway, and being blanketed by all-pro cornerback Joe Haden shouldn’t make things any easier for Wallace to establish a rapport in the season opener. Wallace lays the first of many eggs to come with a 3 catch, 50 yard, 0 TD performance.
Greg Jennings
Ponder this (did you see what I did there?--you’re getting tired of this, aren’t you)--the Vikings’ QB is to the Packers’ QB what Motel 6 is to Caesar’s Palace. Jennings is about 50 years old, coming off a serious injury, and the Vikings are going to run first, second and third. If they do try to pass, Ponder will be introduced to the Lions’ defensive line Fairley Suh (“fairly soon”--did you see what... oh never mind). Jennings won’t see more than 4 catches for 50 yards, and if anyone catches a TD on this team, it will be Rudolph.
Jordy Nelson
Jordy is the Packers’ long ball hitter--the guy who goes deep. To catch passes on a deep pattern, the QB has to have time to throw. Rodgers won’t (see Stinkers above). Nelson suffers. 3 catches for 55 yards, no TD.
Kenbrell Thompkins
It almost seems like cherry picking to put an undrafted rookie free agent on a Stinkers list, but from the number of “WDIS” questions, and the way he was being drafted in the last week, you’d think Kenbrell Thompkins was the second coming of Randy Moss. I’m here to pour water on the fire and remind you that this is an undrafted rookie free agent in his first NFL game, and if you’re even thinking of starting him, then you either had one of the worst drafts in history, or you’ve already drank the Kool-Aid and nothing I can say will change your mind. Give him 3 catches for 45 yards, but any higher expectations would be quite starry-eyed, as the Patriots won’t have to do much other than hand off to Ridley to win this one.
TEs
Sleepers
Antonio Gates
Vincent Brown and Antonio Gates should be Phillip Rivers’ primary targets in a game where they will be forced to throw--a lot. Gates has been slimmer and faster in preseason, and looking good gaining separation and catching what has been thrown to him. Gates caught 7 TDs last season, and could well return to top-5 status with a couple hundred more yards, now that the receiving options in San Diego have thinned. The comeback starts now--6 catches, 70 yards and a TD.
Jordan Cameron
He’s only a borderline sleeper after the preseason that he had, but he should still outperform his season average on a night without Josh Gordon in the lineup, and a weak defense opposing him--see Brandon Weeden and Greg Little above. Cameron easily catches 4 balls for 55 yards and a score; more than that wouldn’t surprise me greatly.
Ed Dickson
Dickson has been under the radar as he recuperated from a preseason hamstring injury, but he’s good to go for the season opener, and stands to benefit from the more serious injury to Dennis Pitta. He may be a better 2nd receiver than any of the Ravens’ other WRs, so I’ll pencil him in for 5 catches, 50 yards and a TD.
Julius Thomas
I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in the Denver offense--but they didn’t make him the starting TE just to block. Giving Thomas a heavy load tonight means that every other opposing defensive coordinator that the Broncos face will have one more thing to worry about. I like Thomas to catch 4 balls for 45 yards and a score. (Update HIT big time)
Brandon Myers
In last year’s season opener against Dallas, Eli Manning fed Martellus Bennett 4 receptions for 40 yards and a TD. History tends to repeat itself.
Anthony Fasano
Somewhat surprisingly, Fasano has been targeted a lot in the first team preseason offense this season. Look for him to complement the swing passes to Charles as a dumpoff option on the other side of the field--and if that happens in the red zone, Fasano is a good bet to convert one of his 3 catches into a score to go along with his 25 yards.
Stinkers
Martellus Bennett
I really hope you didn’t draft this guy to start for you. I think he was targeted a negative number of times in the preseason--the only guy wrapped in tape who was more invisible was Claude Rains. If he catches 2 balls for 20 yards I will be shocked.
Owen Daniels
He just won’t be needed. Foster and Tate should be effective moving the chains, and Johnson and Hopkins will tag team the receptions. 2 catches for 25 yards is a reasonable ceiling here.
Greg Olsen
He’ll probably be covered like a WR2 by the excellent Seattle defense, which limits his upside severely. 3 catches for 30 yards and no score seems likely.
Jared Cook
The St. Louis TE hasn’t been fantasy relevant in forever--not even when they that offense was called the Greatest Show on Turf. I don’t expect Cook to break formation. On the plus side, there’s not much else going on for Bradford in the passing game right now, so Cook probably has the best chance of any of my stinkers to outperform my expectations. I’ll say 3 for 35, but a red zone look could change all that.
Its awful, cause I know some people aren't going to miss the bait.
