Backup QB's for Dynasty (1 Viewer)

[Chadstroma]

It is nothing earth shattering but I have had a lot of success in the past in targeting backup QB's that I can either trade to a QB needy team once the starter gets hurt or eventually end up with multiple starting QB's when one moves on. In targeting these QB's, they are guys that not typically hot commodities but grabbing them out of the free agency pool before their value is immediate can really pay dividends. Of course the trick is trying to figure out who has the potential to be valuable later. There is a lot of patience that needs to be played here and the strategy can make sense or not depending in the depth of the rosters allowed in the league. This is obviously going beyond the QB controversy. At times, it makes sense to grab these guys as handcuffs for your starters but at times I don't even worry about that. It is projecting down the road value that you will cash in on later. 

So, I look for three types. 

1) The guy backing up the starting QB that most likely won't play the full season due to injury. 

2) The guy that has a lot of potential but the starting QB is entrenched as the starter. 

3) QB controversy where 2 or 3 QB's are most likely to play during the season. 

For #1 type Tony Romo seems to be the odds favorite of not being able to play a whole season. He is older and never been a guy to hold up well to begin with. Dak Prescott doesn't have too much competition at present. If Tony gets hurt- you could see how he does but I think I would be inclined to dangle him as trade bait to a QB needy team. 

For the type 2, again, this is more digging in than anything of those that may not be obvious. My thinking here is Ryan Nassib and Connor Cook. I liked Nassib coming out of college. In the extremely limited action over the last couple of years his numbers are more than solid which is a good sign. Manning is reliable so this is a long play. To me, the biggest knocks on Cook seem to be about leadership and character. If so and based on the Packer school of thought that MacKenzie comes from- as he develops and shows skill on field, the Raiders will trade him to a QB needy team. At that point his value obviously skyrockets. 

For type 3, the obvious teams to watch right now are the Jets and the Browns. My favorite right now is Buffalo. Taylor grabbed the starting job last year but if he falters there is Manuel and Jones waiting in the wings for another shot or his rookie shot to starting QBland. 

Just some quick thoughts on the subject here. Anyone have other thoughts along these lines? 

 

[Arodin]

I like this strategy too, although it took a hit for me this offseason with Osweiler leaving Denver.  

I think one key to add to point 2 would be contract length remaining.  You mention Nassib and Cook...I'd much rather be holding Nassib right now because we should know by next offseason whether he'll get a shot at a starting job or not.  (Plus, if the Giants double down and resign him, it shows a good expectation of future playing time,)  Cook on the other hand is likely buried on a bench (or ideally a fantasy practice squad) for 3-5 years.  I'd rather let someone else hold him and hope they get impatient or stuck in a roster space pinch 2-3 years from now.

If you play in leagues with very deep rosters then you may have to hold someone many years for value, but if you're in a more typical shorter-bench league, look for guys in similar situations who will come due within a year or two.  Next offseason I'll be looking to see where guys like Hundley and Grayson have come with their progression.  Nassib is one of my favorites on this year's radar.  If he hadnt emerged a year early I'd have been eyeing Cousins about this time, following this strategy.  Sometimes these backup guys surprise you.

 

[Chadstroma]

I like this strategy too, although it took a hit for me this offseason with Osweiler leaving Denver.  

I think one key to add to point 2 would be contract length remaining.  You mention Nassib and Cook...I'd much rather be holding Nassib right now because we should know by next offseason whether he'll get a shot at a starting job or not.  (Plus, if the Giants double down and resign him, it shows a good expectation of future playing time,)  Cook on the other hand is likely buried on a bench (or ideally a fantasy practice squad) for 3-5 years.  I'd rather let someone else hold him and hope they get impatient or stuck in a roster space pinch 2-3 years from now.

If you play in leagues with very deep rosters then you may have to hold someone many years for value, but if you're in a more typical shorter-bench league, look for guys in similar situations who will come due within a year or two.  Next offseason I'll be looking to see where guys like Hundley and Grayson have come with their progression.  Nassib is one of my favorites on this year's radar.  If he hadnt emerged a year early I'd have been eyeing Cousins about this time, following this strategy.  Sometimes these backup guys surprise you.

Absolutely. Roster depth plays a major roll in shaping your approach as does the quality of your roster. I am not about to drop a starter to get someone I hope starts later. I really do like Nassib though and he is coming to the end of his rookie deal. The Giants will either lock him up to be the heir apparent for Manning or let him his the market (best case scenario if you are holding him) and I have to expect QB needy teams would be all over him.

I am not sold on Hundley and Grayson. Make me interested....

 

[FUBAR]

Mike Glennon for sure.  Not to predict an injury to Winston but he's capable if the opportunity arose.

Matt Cassel in deep leagues.  Wouldn't expect much if he plays but in deep leagues he might be worth the handcuff.

Derek Anderson.  Cam rocks but his risk of injury seems higher than most.

Of course, those two are older so not ideal in dynasty.

There seems to be a void of QBs fitting your criteria.  Cardele Jones and Dak Prescott might be the only two I'd find worth stashing in 99% of leagues.  In the exceptional league where you have room, I think I'd stash Jeff Driskel as a deeeeeep sleeper.

 

[Don Quixote]

I like Cardale Jones the best.  Buffalo does not seem all that committed to Taylor long-term.  Plus, Jones has got a howitzer if he ever learns how to use it.  

 

[massraider]

I have my doubts as to whether this is a strategy I could employ in my leagues, and I play in some deep leagues.

However, arguing about how many leagues this is advisable, or whether it's a legit strategy doesn't strike me as interesting as discussing deep dive QBs, so I won't.  

I think any backup QB in a Bruce Arians system has a better than average shot to see time, because of the nature of his offense.  His QBs get hit, and Palmer is old.  Not sure how excited anyone would be about Drew Stanton, but he could see the field.  

Last year, in the last round of a rookie/vet draft, I took Geno Smith, and thought I was being a little slick.  Then he went and got his jaw broken, and I watched Chan Gailey make a different questionable talent fantasy-relevant.  What I thought Chan could do with Geno, he did with Fitz.  This year, there's probably even less Geno supporters, and no one believes Fitz or the Jets won't cave in.  I might pick up Geno again.  I never thought he looked terrible, and he might be worth holding through the summer, and see if anything shakes out in his direction.  You might say the same thing about Bryce Petty or Christain Hackenburg as well.  

For what Cody Kessler cost, he might be worth hanging onto through training camp, and seeing how his practice reports look.  I always root for the draft picks that everyone immediately declares a mistake, and if Kessler gets a little buzzy in August, and RGIII doesn't have a comeback season, Kessler might be the hand-picked 2017 starter.  

The Cowboys and the Saints have what I deem fragile QBs, but I don't like any of the backups.  I think if Brees went down, Payton would suddenly not look like an offensive genius. Brees has a very interesting contract situation, it is not completely impossible that he's not in New Orleans next year (just mostly impossible).  I find it hard to imagine that their replacement is on the roster, tho.  I think you'd have a better chance of holding Glennon or Garappolo, and winding up with the Saints next QB.  Prescott might be able to beat out Moore and whoever else for the Dallas backup job, but the Cowboys would just run the ball 60 times a game, and Romo isn't going anywhere for years.  

 

[Chadstroma]

I have my doubts as to whether this is a strategy I could employ in my leagues, and I play in some deep leagues.

However, arguing about how many leagues this is advisable, or whether it's a legit strategy doesn't strike me as interesting as discussing deep dive QBs, so I won't.  

I think any backup QB in a Bruce Arians system has a better than average shot to see time, because of the nature of his offense.  His QBs get hit, and Palmer is old.  Not sure how excited anyone would be about Drew Stanton, but he could see the field.  

Last year, in the last round of a rookie/vet draft, I took Geno Smith, and thought I was being a little slick.  Then he went and got his jaw broken, and I watched Chan Gailey make a different questionable talent fantasy-relevant.  What I thought Chan could do with Geno, he did with Fitz.  This year, there's probably even less Geno supporters, and no one believes Fitz or the Jets won't cave in.  I might pick up Geno again.  I never thought he looked terrible, and he might be worth holding through the summer, and see if anything shakes out in his direction.  You might say the same thing about Bryce Petty or Christain Hackenburg as well.  

For what Cody Kessler cost, he might be worth hanging onto through training camp, and seeing how his practice reports look.  I always root for the draft picks that everyone immediately declares a mistake, and if Kessler gets a little buzzy in August, and RGIII doesn't have a comeback season, Kessler might be the hand-picked 2017 starter.  

The Cowboys and the Saints have what I deem fragile QBs, but I don't like any of the backups.  I think if Brees went down, Payton would suddenly not look like an offensive genius. Brees has a very interesting contract situation, it is not completely impossible that he's not in New Orleans next year (just mostly impossible).  I find it hard to imagine that their replacement is on the roster, tho.  I think you'd have a better chance of holding Glennon or Garappolo, and winding up with the Saints next QB.  Prescott might be able to beat out Moore and whoever else for the Dallas backup job, but the Cowboys would just run the ball 60 times a game, and Romo isn't going anywhere for years.  

I have been able to parlay this into many 'wins' for my fantasy teams. From the scrap heap of dealing a QB I didn't have much faith in for an upgraded pick to ending up with Rivers/Brees as the biggest win and most recently RG3/Cousins potentially 2 starting QB's. I have been surprised at how often I have ended up with some value in using this strategy.

Good point on Palmer but as pointed out- Stanton doesn't drive excitement. Perhaps if you are looking at him as a way to grab a starter and trade him once he is starting to a QB hungry team for minimal value then sure but he doesn't strike me as someone anyone would be willing to pay anything for unless they simply have no QB to start.

I agree that Brees makes that offense go and Payton just helps it- take out Brees and I don't think Payton can engineer an offense anywhere near as effective. I do like the idea of Prescott as the chances of him seeing significant action this year are high and unlike knowns rookies can always be tradable upon hope that they are NFL QBs. If (when?) Romo goes down, Prescott will get pressed into action, most likely he won't do well but with the talent around him it is not that hard of a sell to trade him if you are not inclined to see what he can do.