David Yudkin
Footballguy
Mark Ellis, 2B, OAK
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Baseball Off-Season Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Furps
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Well, according to ESPN's ADP, he's getting selected 190th (#14 at 2B) in ML draft leagues. Based on that, he should definitely be a value pick.Overall, I think he should have a solid year, but I think he will have a harder time sustaining the level of performance he did at the end of last year.Well done sir. What are your thoughts on him this year?
If he goes back to swiping 20 bags a year like he did in the minors, he would be a very good bet to be a Top 5 2B.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
But he has less than 1 year's MLB service time. Don't you need (I think) 4 before you're even eligible for arbitration? If so, why pass up those (relatively) free years?makes sense if they think he's going to have a huge 2006.Why would they do this so soon?
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Also its the way the Tribe does things. If you remember all of that talent they put together in the early to mid 90's (Lofton / Thome / Belle) they did the same thing.Sign them early to really good deals so that they don't cost top line money further down the road.makes sense if they think he's going to have a huge 2006.Why would they do this so soon?
whoknew
Footballguy
See that makes sense if they are 3 or so year players. Sizemore doesn't even have 1 full year yet.Also its the way the Tribe does things. If you remember all of that talent they put together in the early to mid 90's (Lofton / Thome / Belle) they did the same thing.Sign them early to really good deals so that they don't cost top line money further down the road.makes sense if they think he's going to have a huge 2006.Why would they do this so soon?
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Guess they feel he's not your average player.Tribe has now signed Sizemore, Martinez, Hafner, Peralta and Sabathia to long term deals. Still working on Cliff Lee.See that makes sense if they are 3 or so year players. Sizemore doesn't even have 1 full year yet.Also its the way the Tribe does things. If you remember all of that talent they put together in the early to mid 90's (Lofton / Thome / Belle) they did the same thing.Sign them early to really good deals so that they don't cost top line money further down the road.makes sense if they think he's going to have a huge 2006.Why would they do this so soon?
whoknew
Footballguy
No I get it. They think he's great and, for a 23 year old, he had a hell of a year. I'm not arguing they should not have locked him up or that he won't have a great career. I'm arguing that it doesn't make sense to do it so soon when you still have 3 years before he's even eligible for arbitration.
well, possible breakdown:not positive on all the rules here but i gave it a shot:
sizemore has 1.056 yrs. of major league service which means he wouldn't become a free agent until (06=2,07=3,08=4,09=5,10=6) after the 2010 season. During those years, had Cleveland not made the new signing, what do we expect he would have gotten through arbitration through that period assuming he keeps putting up good #'s?
06=.327mil (league min)
-becomes super-two player so he's now arbitration-eligible
-the average raise for ML player through arbitration was 109% in 06. let's assume he'll be way above average and get 150% increase each year.
-let's assume he'll be at 3 mil in 07.
07=3 mil
08=4.5 mil (3*1.5)
09=6.75 mil (4.5*1.5)
10=10.125 mil (4.5*1.5) <--looks high but Soriano just made $10 mil in his final arbitration case and he lost
Total before free agency= 24.7mil
The new deal pays him 23.45mil through 2011 so even if those estimates are too high, you still think that Cleveland has got to be ahead on this one. And they have the option on 2012 which, if he pans out, I'm sure they will exercise.
So with this signing, Cleveland
a) locks him into a deal for an extra 1-2 yrs. (years when he's in his "supposed prime" mind you)
b) pays more in the short-term while they can afford it and more importantly, saves a lot of dough in the long-term, dough that they will be able to put toward other low-mid level free agents or re-signings (so basically, this team is going to be competitive for years to come)
c) is avoiding the hassle of arbitration and the strain that could put on the player-team relationship, which means that sizemore will be more likely to stay with the club for less money after the contract is done (though i'm guessing they will re-structure once or twice more in order to lock him into even years)
d) does take on a lot of risk in the deal. sizemore now has a guaranteed contract through 2011. if he doesn't pan out, they've shot themselves in the foot but i don't see much reason to think he won't. there are no minor league stats for him 01 but since then it appears as though he hasn't missed any time.
edit: but yeah you're basically right. it seems a year too soon. but then again, what if he goes 30-30 this year? then is it a year too soon? if his numbers increase a lot it could eventually cost them something like an extra $10 mil in the long-term, whereas if they sign him now and he goes 30-30, they're only paying an extra what, $3.5 mil? over what they should be.
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ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
How cool is the fact that we are less than 1 week away from an actual, real, authentic, counting in the stands means something other than nothing baseball game!!!!!
For the fans who feel like their teams don't have a chance.
For the fans who feel like their teams don't have a chance.
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i thought you brought up a great point. a simple concept that i overlooked. but yeah if 2 yrs. of solid production in a row is going to drive up his value too much, the extra 3.5 mil this year is probably a worthwhile investment.i thought it was interesting that he never hit for power in the minors. though he does now.
Thanks for the analysis. My laziness overtook my curiousity.
and what's this i hear about peanuts?! and cracker jack?!!
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