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Baseball Wagering (1 Viewer)

Remember that plays are graded Weak, Good, Strong, and Crazy.  Don't bet the Crazy plays -- I'll be tracking them separately.

Formula 1 (6-5 +107)Formula 2 (7-5 +280)Formula 3 (6-6 +37)   TEAM           LINE       F1 PLAY     F2 PLAY       F3 PLAYW Detroit        -134       Strong      Strong        CrazyL Seattle        +160       Good        Good          WeakL Oakland        -120       Weak                      WeakL Milwaukee      -113       Good        Weak          GoodW San Diego      +107       Strong      Good          CrazyW Philadelphia   -108                                 WeakW Colorado       -108                                 GoodEdit: Hopefully this format is better all around.
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Tomorrow's Plays

Code: 
Formula 1 (6-5 +107)Formula 2 (7-5 +280)Formula 3 (6-6 +37)TEAM           LINE       F1 PLAY      F2 PLAY      F3 PLAYCleveland      -110       Weak         Weak         GoodSan Francisco  +129       Crazy        Strong       CrazyFlorida        +157       Crazy        Crazy        CrazyCincinnati     -115       Weak                      WeakKansas City    +136                    Weak         StrongSt. Louis      -129                    Weak         StrongTexas          -173                                 Weak
 
Tomorrow's Plays

Formula 1 (6-5 +107)Formula 2 (7-5 +280)Formula 3 (6-6 +37)TEAM           LINE       F1 PLAY      F2 PLAY      F3 PLAYCleveland      -110       Weak         Weak         GoodSan Francisco  +129       Crazy        Strong       CrazyFlorida        +157       Crazy        Crazy        CrazyCincinnati     -115       Weak                      WeakKansas City    +136                    Weak         StrongSt. Louis      -129                    Weak         StrongTexas          -173                                 Weak<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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I am taking SF +127I matched your system with the dog play system and this game matches both systems.

I also have a parlay today:

AZ Dbacks -110

Chc Bulls ML +105

Suns -4 -110

1 unit pays 6 units.

:tumbleweed:

 
I'm still :hot: over losing a few days ago on St Louis when they sat Pujols and Edmonds on me the same day, with Rolen already out. :hot: :hot: :hot: Blew a unit last night on a few small parlays that didn't pan out. But, now I'm feeling good again, so I'll get the ball rolling this afternoon:

Cleveland, Johnson -110 to make 2 units

Cleveland's been playing well this year and even though I don't like laying chalk on the road, I like picking a team that's better. Plus, Johnson has been very good this year, with a 3.41 ERA. He should keep them in the game, and hopefully that will be good enough to pull me through. Plus, Saarloos is not a very. I never trust a pitcher with that many consecutive vowels. Soccer goalies, sure, pitchers, no.

g'luck

 
I'm still :hot: over losing a few days ago on St Louis when they sat Pujols and Edmonds on me the same day, with Rolen already out.  :hot: :hot: :hot:   Blew a unit last night on a few small parlays that didn't pan out.  But, now I'm feeling good again, so I'll get the ball rolling this afternoon:

Cleveland, Johnson -110 to make 2 units

Cleveland's been playing well this year and even though I don't like laying chalk on the road, I like picking a team that's better.  Plus, Johnson has been very good this year, with a 3.41 ERA.  He should keep them in the game, and hopefully that will be good enough to pull me through.  Plus, Saarloos is not a very.  I never trust a pitcher with that many consecutive vowels.  Soccer goalies, sure, pitchers, no.

g'luck

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fwiw - BE CAREFULWITH JASON JOHNSON - he historically blows up in the 2nd half, and although we are not there yet, realize that his last few starts have been horrific - at one point his era and whip were miniscule: over his last two starts - 12 innings he has given up 8er, has a whip of 3 and only 4 k's - if you like go with it, but i think the better play may be the over!

 
fwiw - BE CAREFULWITH JASON JOHNSON - he historically blows up in the 2nd half, and although we are not there yet, realize that his last few starts have been horrific - at one point his era and whip were miniscule: over his last two starts - 12 innings he has given up 8er, has a whip of 3 and only 4 k's -

if you like go with it, but i think the better play may be the over!

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As an avid fantasy baseball player, who owned Johnson a few years back where he blew up one week with like a 40 ERA and a WHIP about 9.0, and then benched him the week he threw like a 1 hitter, I am well aware of the ups and downs with Mr. Johnson. But, again, Johnson >>>> Saarloos as far as I'm concerned.
 
I'm still :hot: over losing a few days ago on St Louis when they sat Pujols and Edmonds on me the same day, with Rolen already out.  :hot: :hot: :hot:   Blew a unit last night on a few small parlays that didn't pan out.  But, now I'm feeling good again, so I'll get the ball rolling this afternoon:

Cleveland, Johnson -110 to make 2 units

Cleveland's been playing well this year and even though I don't like laying chalk on the road, I like picking a team that's better.  Plus, Johnson has been very good this year, with a 3.41 ERA.  He should keep them in the game, and hopefully that will be good enough to pull me through.  Plus, Saarloos is not a very.  I never trust a pitcher with that many consecutive vowels.  Soccer goalies, sure, pitchers, no.

g'luck

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fwiw - BE CAREFULWITH JASON JOHNSON - he historically blows up in the 2nd half, and although we are not there yet, realize that his last few starts have been horrific - at one point his era and whip were miniscule: over his last two starts - 12 innings he has given up 8er, has a whip of 3 and only 4 k's - if you like go with it, but i think the better play may be the over!

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:goodposting:
 
Tomorrow's Plays

Formula 1 (7-6 +97)Formula 2 (8-8 +77)Formula 3 (9-8 +147)TEAM           LINE       F1 PLAY      F2 PLAY      F3 PLAYL Cleveland      -110       Weak         Weak         GoodL San Francisco  +129       Crazy        Strong       CrazyW Florida        +157       Crazy        Crazy        CrazyW Cincinnati     -115       Weak                      WeakW Kansas City    +136                    Weak         StrongL St. Louis      -129                    Weak         StrongW Texas          -173                                 Weak<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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So far, so good. :thumbup:
 
Tomorrow's Plays

Formula 1 (6-5 +107)Formula 2 (7-5 +280)Formula 3 (6-6 +37)TEAM           LINE       F1 PLAY      F2 PLAY      F3 PLAYCleveland      -110       Weak         Weak         GoodSan Francisco  +129       Crazy        Strong       CrazyFlorida        +157       Crazy        Crazy        CrazyCincinnati     -115       Weak                      WeakKansas City    +136                    Weak         StrongSt. Louis      -129                    Weak         StrongTexas          -173                                 Weak<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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I am taking SF +127I matched your system with the dog play system and this game matches both systems.

I also have a parlay today:

AZ Dbacks -110

Chc Bulls ML +105

Suns -4 -110

1 unit pays 6 units.

:tumbleweed:

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:X
 
Tomorrow's Plays

Formula 1 (7-6 +97)Formula 2 (8-8 +77)Formula 3 (9-8 +147)TEAM           LINE       F1 PLAY      F2 PLAY      F3 PLAYTampa Bay      +127       Strong       Good         CrazyFlorida        +147       Crazy        Strong       CrazySan Diego      +110       Weak         Weak         WeakLA Angels      +125       Weak                      WeakSeattle        +101       Weak                      StrongAtlanta        +132                    Weak         Weak
All dogs. This looks more like the PinPoint I know. I'm predicting a profitable day. :thumbup:

 
Baseball - 959 Houston Astros -107 for Game

Baseball - 959 Houston Astros/Colorado Rockies under 10½ -125 for Game

Baseball - 961 Cincinnati Reds +143 for Game

Baseball - 964 San Diego Padres +114 for Game

Baseball - 965 Milwaukee Brewers -111 for Game

Baseball - 977 Tampa Bay Devil Rays +128 for Game

Baseball - 980 Seattle Mariners -104 for Game

21 to win 3211.88

 
Slow board????

Liking the over 10 +110, but concerned Giants can't score anymore without Alou. Interesting though

Phil -1.5 +140

Phil -2.5 +160

Thought the odds would be better for Phil -2.5, ya think the phils can score 10 on their own?

 
Slow board????

Liking the over 10 +110, but concerned Giants can't score anymore without Alou. Interesting though

Phil -1.5 +140

Phil -2.5 +160

Thought the odds would be better for Phil -2.5, ya think the phils can score 10 on their own?

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Pinny has PHI -2.5 at +225. I'm passing on this game. I am in a big time slump and got no lean here.
 
Tonight I'm all over Oswalt -155. A few reasons why:

1-SF just played a night game in Philly. Probably just flew in this morning. I kind of doubt Bonds will be playing (at least per a few sites I've read) and the rest of the team had just flown 5+ hours.

2-Houston just got swept at Colorado. No way this team wants to go down 4 in a row.

3-Alou is DL'd.

4-Lowry's first start after a lengthy DL stint

5-Roy Oswalt is the man. Who is he going to fear in a SF lineup without Alou or Bonds?

HEAVY chalk here, and I really hate laying this much chalk on the road, but with one of the games premier pitchers going against a beat up offense I think the price is right here. I'm on it for 3.5 units.

Also played Weaver +163 for a unit. Halladay has not been dominant this year at all. The Angels are 14-18 and need to start winning. Weaver is one of those pitchers who usually keeps you in the game, and if the Angels can get to Halladay early, or get into the Jays bullpen, I love their chances. Value is here so I'll take a nibble.

g'luck

 
Since this thread is dragging, I guess I'll post my card for tonight. This is what I have so far:

Colorado RL -155 (Mansion) 15/9.68

LA Angels +166 (Mansion) 10/16.60

LA Angels RL -138 (Mansion) 15/10.87

Cubs/Padres Over 7 +107 (Pinny) 15/16.05

Parlay: Cubs +103/Over 7 +107 (Pinny) 10/32.02

KC RL +107 (Pinny) 10/10.70

Houston -152 (Mansion) 15/9.87

Houston/SF Over 7.5 +118 (Pinny) 10/11.80

 
Some more:

Astros/SF Over 7 -106 (Mansion) 15/14.15

St Louis/Colorado Over 9 +113 (Mansion) 15/16.95

Minny +149 (Mansion) 10/14.90

Minny RL -132 (Mansion) 10/7.58

Rockies +137 (Pinny) 10/13.70

Rocks RL -155 (Mansion) 15/9.68

 
And in case you need plays for tomorrow...

Early Tuesday plays, lines I think are off - all at Pinny:

Phils +132 15/19.80

Phils RL -126 15/11.90

Dodgers +113 15/16.95

Dodgers RL -148 15/10.14

Baltimore +107 20/21.40

Toronto -104 15/14.42

Minny +170 15/25.50

Minny RL 20/16.13

I love Minny tomorrow against Millwood. He's overvalued here. I figured the Phils and Mets would be close to even, but Pedro is a public pitcher. I think the Dodgers should be the favorite at home against Pettitte with Seo on the hill and the same goes for Cabrera and the Orioles. I think Toronto should be -120.

If I was doing this for a living, I would play a sizeable chunk on Baltimore +107. Looks like a GREAT line as they might go off as the favorite. Huge scalp may be available.

 
Incredible. Here I am with a solid record throwing one or two lines on the table, but Marshall, my goodness. You are a betting searcher for sure. I'll drink to that. I'm not an O/U type guy, but with the horrible batting ave. against Lowry and Oswalt on the mound agains the Gi's w/o Barry, Alou, Durham... still going over...on two books. Good luck!

 
Incredible. Here I am with a solid record throwing one or two lines on the table, but Marshall, my goodness. You are a betting searcher for sure. I'll drink to that. I'm not an O/U type guy, but with the horrible batting ave. against Lowry and Oswalt on the mound agains the Gi's w/o Barry, Alou, Durham... still going over...on two books. Good luck!

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:lmao: :lmao: I've been called many things here, but a "betting searcher" is not one of them. What is that? Is it good?

 
I'll go over this once. Some of this is chopped from a guy I know.

This is in reference to games like tonight with SD and the Cubs.

If you can lay -200 on the dog runline (Cubs) you probably have a bargain. Why? Because there is a .5 probability of an outright win and if the home team wins you still cash your runline some 25% of the time, more or less depending on the total. Since we have a VERY low total of 7 here then our 25% number in which the home team wins by 1 may be too low even. .5 + .25 = .75 I will lay -200 any day of the week and twice on sunday. In reality we probably have to lay -210 even at good prices and the home team wins by 1 less than 25% but more than 20%.

Tonight is a prime example on how terrible SD -1.5 is. You are only winning this game SU 52% of the time. But when you do win the game, you are going to have to win by more than a run. I'd say it's safe to assume the Padres will be winning this game by more than a run just 25% of the time. The breakeven point that we need is +300, not +190 like we have tonight.

+190 comes with a 34.5% winning percentage. Since we know the Cubs are winning this game nearly 50% (52% exactly) of the time, that means that the Cubs only have to cover the RL 17.5% of the time, which with the factors we have in this game - huge ballpark, and TINY total this just screams take the Cubs RL.

Bettors continually take the favorite and make them a huge underdog - in theory this is good, but you couldn't be more wrong.

I know I'm hammering your pick BadSS, but just trying to help here.

 
MP, no p here.

I understand where you are going with your argument, but where do you come up with the SD only will win by more than one 25% of time. Is that based on statistics? Using your argument as a base all -1.5 lines are bad bets. Or maybe I am not getting it.

When betting Baseball, I look for bargains. Cubs have lost like 6 straight, Pads have won 8 straight (??). Cubs aren't hitting and now they are in a pitchers park. I think reality has set in on Maddox, so I see SD winning this game like 7-1.

I also took the o7 even money. Between these two bets, I am really betting SD will score at least 4 runs and I think they will. If SD scores 4 runs, I can't lose any money, but I do chance to win up to 3 units.

Who knows, I am sure my thinking is flawed. No matter, and tonights game won't really settle it. Interesting though, its 3-1 in the fourth now and amazingly the cub bats have come to life.....

 
MP, no p here.

I understand where you are going with your argument, but where do you come up with the SD only will win by more than one 25% of time. Is that based on statistics? Using your argument as a base all -1.5 lines are bad bets. Or maybe I am not getting it.

When betting Baseball, I look for bargains. Cubs have lost like 6 straight, Pads have won 8 straight (??). Cubs aren't hitting and now they are in a pitchers park. I think reality has set in on Maddox, so I see SD winning this game like 7-1.

I also took the o7 even money. Between these two bets, I am really betting SD will score at least 4 runs and I think they will. If SD scores 4 runs, I can't lose any money, but I do chance to win up to 3 units.

Who knows, I am sure my thinking is flawed. No matter, and tonights game won't really settle it. Interesting though, its 3-1 in the fourth now and amazingly the cub bats have come to life.....

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You are correct with the bolded above. VERY rarely is laying a run and a half decent. Maybe on the road team at Coors, where games are rarely decided by a run. I have the Over 7 here, so I'm rooting for runs here.You mentioned the two teams streak and that's fine, but I'm throwing all of that out the window here. We are looking at a problem that is longterm and we will be facing at least 1-3 of these each and every day (Milwaukee/SD tomorrow).

Your bet is correlated as you stated which is a good thing usually. It's now 7-1 and it looks like you will hit both bets, barring a huge Cubs comeback.

The trick in this problem is figuring out the number of times that the Padres will win by just one run tonight. A single run wins 27.9% of games, while 31.7% of home victories are by one run. The thing about the Runline that is most key is the total - it's a basic concept - the less runs scored, the more likely the game is decided by one run. In a game like tonight, the total is 7 and the ballpark is huge, so I really expect this game to be a one run game.

As you said, tonight's game won't settle it, but people that look at short-term results will certainly think tonight's play was a smart one. In the longrun it is not though. I can provide much more thought on this issue, as it's something I'm really starting to grasp now.

To sum it up in one easy sentence: the public sees a toss-up like tonight's game and says "I can lay a run and a half and almost get 2:1 on my money, must be good." This is why it's better to take the run and a half in the long-run.

 
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4 Members: MarshallPlan, Bill Brasky, badSSmofo, Pat Patriot

The old man has come to learn how to effectively bet baseball. :excited:

 
Ok, lets see if this makes your head spin. Vegas says SD will win this game roughly 52% of time. If I were to bet this game 20 times, SD would win 11 out of the 20. According to your figures above, SD will win by more than 1, 70% of the time, when they win.

So if I were to bet this game 20 times at -1.5 +190, and I won only 7 times I would be up .3 units.

(7*2.9) - 20 = +.3

Hows that???

 
Ok, lets see if this makes your head spin. Vegas says SD will win this game roughly 52% of time. If I were to bet this game 20 times, SD would win 11 out of the 20. According to your figures above, SD will win by more than 1, 70% of the time, when they win.

So if I were to bet this game 20 times at -1.5 +190, and I won only 7 times I would be up .3 units.

(7*2.9) - 20 = +.3

Hows that???

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Did you type this backwards?
 
A simple equation to sum this up is: .5 (odds on the ML for the dog) + .25 (odds the dog loses by just one run) = .75 odds we cash our +1.5 RL bet.

Which means you win 25% of the time and if this is the case you need to play the game at +300 to breakeven.

The .25 number is something that isn't concrete and depends on a number of factors - the manager, ballpark, and total (most important).

 
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