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**Bears at Lions** Thanksgiving 12:30 (-9.5, 47.5) (3 Viewers)

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
@FBG Moderator
@Joe Bryant

This will be the 20th Thanksgiving Day matchup between Detroit and Chicago. The Bears lead the turkey day series 11-8; the Lions have been winless in their annual holiday game since 2016 - seven straight defeats.

Dan Campbell is 13-7 versus the NFC North as the Lions head coach. He is 3-3 versus Chicago, and has never won on Thanksgiving.

Monday was a rest day for both teams, but per league requirements they filed estimated practice reports.

Chicago Bears
Injury report
PlayerPositionInjuryMonTueWedGame Status
Elijah HicksDBAnkleDNPUNSPECIFIED
Ryan BatesOLConcussionLPUNSPECIFIED

Detroit Lions
Injury report
PlayerPositionInjuryMonTueWedGame Status
Carlton DavisCBKnee/ThumbDNPUNSPECIFIED
Taylor DeckerOTKneeDNPUNSPECIFIED
David MontgomeryRBShoulderDNPUNSPECIFIED
Kalif RaymondWRFootDNPUNSPECIFIED
D.J. ReaderDEIllnessDNPUNSPECIFIED
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRKneeDNPUNSPECIFIED
Terrion ArnoldCBGroinFPUNSPECIFIED

Legend​

  • Practice Status
    • DNP - Did not participate in practice
    • LP - Limited participation in practice
    • FP - Full participation
    • (-) - Not listed
  • Game Status
    • Out - Player will not play
    • Doubtful - Player is unlikely to play
    • Questionable - Player is not certain to play
    • (-) - Not listed
 
Last edited:
Of the 6 players declared out, it is likely Montgomery, Reader and St Brown will play.

CD3, Decker and Raymond may miss the game.

None of the injuries are long term but with the short turnaround and a TNF game vs GB Week 14, they may choose to be cautious.

If you're scoring at home, that's 5 defensive starters out for this week, along with several key contributors who are on IR.

Somehow Aaron Glenn always finds a way with what he has available.
 
Detroit Football Network

New franchise QB, revamped coaching staff, Bears struggling to turn corner heading into Thanksgiving vs. Lions

Justin Rogers
Nov 26, 2024



Allen Park — Are we in the death throes of Matt Eberflus’ tenure in Chicago? It certainly feels that way.

The Bears are reeling. After winning four of their first six games, they’ve dropped five straight. The last two have been heartbreaking defeats at the hands of NFC North rivals — one on a blocked field goal, the other in overtime. Now the Lions have the chance to drive another nail into the coffin on Thanksgiving.

This was supposed to be the season the Bears turned the corner. After starting 0-4 a year ago, they finished above .500 the rest of the way. More than the strong finish, they had the No. 1 pick in the draft, a remnant from trading away the top choice to the Carolina Panthers the previous year. And for all the posturing in the months leading up to the event, everyone understood it represented Chicago’s next-best chance to land a long-coveted franchise quarterback.

And maybe they have in Caleb Williams, even if he hasn’t lit the world on fire out of the gate. That's despite being gifted an outstanding trio of receivers for his debut season. Joining DJ Moore, the holdover, the Bears traded for six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen this offseason, and used their own first-round draft pick, No. 12 overall, on Washington's Rome Odunze, rounding out a potent corps.

The Bears also made efforts to upgrade Williams’ backfield, inking former Lion D’Andre Swift, a talented dual-threat who has exhibited far better durability since leaving Detroit than he ever did for the team that drafted him. Through 11 games, he's racked up 943 yards from scrimmage, putting him on pace for the best year of his career.

To tie the room together, Eberflus reshaped his offensive coaching staff, headlined by a new coordinator and new QB coach. But the addition of Shane Waldron, who coordinated for Seattle the three previous years, was an unmitigated flop. He’s already been relieved of his duties and replaced by Thomas Brown, who started the year as Chicago’s passing game coordinator.

The early results on the midseason switch, particularly in regards to Williams’ performance, have been promising. In the first game with Brown calling the shots, the rookie QB completed 23-of-31 for 231 yards without a touchdown or interception, while adding 70 more yards on the ground.

This past week, against the Vikings, Williams stuffed the stat with 340 passing yards, two scores and zero picks. The young signal-caller hasn’t thrown an interception in five straight games.

The offensive line is still a point of concern for the Bears. The team is starting two budget free-agent additions with Coleman Shelton at center and Matt Pryor lining up at multiple spots, most recently at right guard. Among the consequences, Williams has been sacked more than any QB in the NFL this season.

Overall, Chicago’s offense hasn’t done much consistently well this season. They rank in the bottom half of the league in yards, points, yards per carry and passer rating. Where they have succeeded is protecting the football and punching it across the goal line once in the red zone. They’re top five in both categories.

Defensively, the Bears have been pretty damn good. They’ve held nine of 11 opponents under 21 points and rank eighth in scoring. They’ve also done well at generating takeaways, forcing the opposition to cough it up 18 times.

Largely, it’s a familiar group, with one significant change. At safety, the team parted ways with longtime standout Eddie Jackson and replaced him with Kevin Byard, one of the better playmakers at the position since entering the league in 2016, earning a pair of first-team All-Pro selections along the way. The interceptions haven’t been there for Byard this year, but he’s still been excellent in the back end for the Bears.

The other safety spot is temporarily being manned by another free-agent addition, Jonathan Owens, while regular starter Jaquan Brisker is on injured reserve with a concussion.

Like the offense, the Bears defense also has a new coordinator after Alan Williams resigned during the early stages of the 2023 season. The newcomer, Eric Washington, had been leading Buffalo’s defensive line the past few seasons. He also has previous coordinator experience, filling the role for Carolina for two years, from 2018-19.
 
Surprised DC hasn't won on Thanksgiving.

I tend to see Dan as a coach that likes to show off all his toys on these big national games - like Denny Green. Is that an accurate viewpoint?
 
Lions will control the tempo
Short turnarounds are tougher on the visiting team
I think The Bears will be in the game
But don't see The Lions losing at home on Turkey day to a division rival
Especially one that tends to do something stupid now and then
I'm thinking...

Turkey Day Lions- 37
Big Turkey bears- 26
 
I think the Bears keep it close for a while, but will ultimately lose. Flus might be the worst situational coach the NFL has seen in the last decade. The offense is getting better with Thomas Brown calling the plays.

This Bears team is still way too sloppy and undisciplined to beat an elite opponent on the road.

Goff has struggled against Chicago, so the game will go as he does.

Detroit -30
Chicago - 20
 
Lions will control the tempo
Short turnarounds are tougher on the visiting team
I think The Bears will be in the game
But don't see The Lions losing at home on Turkey day to a division rival
Especially one that tends to do something stupid now and then
I'm thinking...

Turkey Day Lions- 37
Big Turkey bears- 26
Visiting teams are 11-3 on Thanksgiving the last 5 years. Short turnarounds are not so hard on them.
 
Lions will control the tempo
Short turnarounds are tougher on the visiting team
I think The Bears will be in the game
But don't see The Lions losing at home on Turkey day to a division rival
Especially one that tends to do something stupid now and then
I'm thinking...

Turkey Day Lions- 37
Big Turkey bears- 26
Visiting teams are 11-3 on Thanksgiving the last 5 years. Short turnarounds are not so hard on them.
And 64-80 on Thursdays in the last ten years
 
. Flus might be the worst situational coach the NFL has seen in the last decade.

Under Matt Eberflus the Bears are: 5-18 in 1-score games, 3-18 on the road, 2-12 in the NFC North.

Dude has to go. I don’t like him, seems like the kind of douche who blames everyone else when things go sideways. He’ll throw anyone under the bus before admitting he’s the problem (IMO.)

Bad coach who doesn’t pay attention to details or understand accountability. No idea how he has kept the job as long as he has.
 
10.5 seems like alot

Detroit is 9-2 ATS. IDK their record with big spreads but they don’t ever come out flat.

Minnesota pushed us hard, and Houston played a great half. Tampa Bay was winnable, some inexplicable mistakes - botched a end of half FGA that would have changed how the rest of the contest played out.

Hoping Detroit faces more adversity before the postseason because that stuff helps you prepare for getting through playoff games. Unfortunately I don’t think the Bears are in a good place rn.
 
. Flus might be the worst situational coach the NFL has seen in the last decade.

Under Matt Eberflus the Bears are: 5-18 in 1-score games, 3-18 on the road, 2-12 in the NFC North.

Dude has to go. I don’t like him, seems like the kind of douche who blames everyone else when things go sideways. He’ll throw anyone under the bus before admitting he’s the problem (IMO.)

Bad coach who doesn’t pay attention to details or understand accountability. No idea how he has kept the job as long as he has.
He's horrible at challenges and timeouts as well.

The rumor from the players is that he's a great person, but he's horrible with accountability. He lets players slack during practice and its contagious.

He'll be a solid DC again in the NFL if he a lands on a team with a bold personality at HC.
 
Lions win this by 30.
Yeah, I don't think so. This may be closer than most think.

Lions banged up. Chicago plays them well on Turkey Day. Swift looking to make a statement.
Allen and DJ could have nice games too.

Think the Lions still win, but certainly not by 30.

Lions 27
Bears 17
 
I was surprised to see the Lions have a 7 game losing streak on Thanksgiving. Then a former player said there are so many distractions for the home team, it makes sense. Cowboys are 4-6 in their last 10 on Thanksgiving.

I don't know if the Lions lose this game, but if I were betting, I'd take the 10.5 points.
 
Dan Campbell reiterated today the same prognosis for the 6 players on the report.
  • Feels good about Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery playing Thursday vs. the Bears
  • not so good about Decker, Raymond and Carlton Davis.
  • Lions are waiting on a second opinion on Kalif Raymond's foot injury to see how long-term it is. Could be season ending but they’re don’t know yet; the initial diagnosis was positive.
 
It will either be a Bears win or the Bears get destroyed. This will not be another close game loss for Chicago.
 
Not sure this is meaningful but just a pattern I noticed….

Lions opened with three 1-score games, going 2-1. Since then it’s been 2 blowouts followed by a close one.

4. +13
5. +38
6. +2

7. +38
8. +10
9. +3

10. +46
11. +18
12. ???
 
I was surprised to see the Lions have a 7 game losing streak on Thanksgiving. Then a former player said there are so many distractions for the home team, it makes sense. Cowboys are 4-6 in their last 10 on Thanksgiving.

I don't know if the Lions lose this game, but if I were betting, I'd take the 10.5 points.
Out of those 7 games, 6 of them the Lions had a really bad team (all of the Matt Patricia years and the first two under Dan Campbell. I mean really bad. Last year was the only one where they were anything above average. The other 6 we knew the Lions would lose.
 
@BobbyLayne

Richardson or Goff in league with 4 pt pass and 1/25 pass. Richardson outscored Goff last week by 2 points.

Gut says the Lions want to dish out a beat down and put on a Thanksgiving show so I have Goff in right now. Thoughts on how you see this playing out.
 
I was surprised to see the Lions have a 7 game losing streak on Thanksgiving. Then a former player said there are so many distractions for the home team, it makes sense. Cowboys are 4-6 in their last 10 on Thanksgiving.

I don't know if the Lions lose this game, but if I were betting, I'd take the 10.5 points.
Out of those 7 games, 6 of them the Lions had a really bad team (all of the Matt Patricia years and the first two under Dan Campbell. I mean really bad. Last year was the only one where they were anything above average. The other 6 we knew the Lions would lose.

They had winning records in 2017, 2022 and 2023. Those teams weren't "really bad." Then, in 2020, the Lions were 4-6 entering the Thanksgiving game and lost to a 3-7 Texans team. That's a game the Lions should/could have won.
 
Ready to tip back a couple of cold beers for this. Maybe not for the first half since I'm on the left coast but definitely by halftime I'll be ready.
 
@BobbyLayne

Richardson or Goff in league with 4 pt pass and 1/25 pass. Richardson outscored Goff last week by 2 points.

Gut says the Lions want to dish out a beat down and put on a Thanksgiving show so I have Goff in right now. Thoughts on how you see this playing out.

Trying to decide between Goff or Love myself

Don’t feel great about either due to volume concerns

:shrug:

But there’s this…

Bears defense weeks 8-12 (post bye)
  • 20th in EPA per play (0.049)
  • 18th in success rate (44.7%)
  • 23rd in EPA per dropback (0.162)
  • 25th in dropback success rate (49.7%)
  • 17th in EPA per rush (-0.084)
  • 17th in rush success rate (38.7%)
This is where the outside consultants call Eberflus in and ask “What is it you would say you do around here, exactly?”
 
Chicago Bears
Injury report
PlayerPositionInjuryMonTueWedGame Status
Elijah HicksDBAnkleDNPDNPUNSPECIFIED
Ryan BatesOLConcussionLPLPUNSPECIFIED

Detroit Lions
Injury report
PlayerPositionInjuryMonTueWedGame Status
Carlton DavisCBKnee/ThumbDNPDNPUNSPECIFIED
Taylor DeckerOTKneeDNPDNPUNSPECIFIED
Kalif RaymondWRFootDNPDNPUNSPECIFIED
David MontgomeryRBShoulderDNPLPUNSPECIFIED
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRKneeDNPLPUNSPECIFIED
Terrion ArnoldCBGroinFPFPUNSPECIFIED
D.J. ReaderDEIllnessDNPFPUNSPECIFIED
 
I was surprised to see the Lions have a 7 game losing streak on Thanksgiving. Then a former player said there are so many distractions for the home team, it makes sense. Cowboys are 4-6 in their last 10 on Thanksgiving.

I don't know if the Lions lose this game, but if I were betting, I'd take the 10.5 points.
Out of those 7 games, 6 of them the Lions had a really bad team (all of the Matt Patricia years and the first two under Dan Campbell. I mean really bad. Last year was the only one where they were anything above average. The other 6 we knew the Lions would lose.

They had winning records in 2017, 2022 and 2023. Those teams weren't "really bad." Then, in 2020, the Lions were 4-6 entering the Thanksgiving game and lost to a 3-7 Texans team. That's a game the Lions should/could have won.

That’s one of the most important losses in Lions history. You can never take that embarrassing 41-25 shellacking away from us.

Two days later Sheila Hamp fired Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn. Two weeks later she hired Chris Spielman as a Special Advisor. Seven weeks after that loss she hired Brad Holmes, and six days after that, Dan Campbell held his first press conference.

Thanksgiving 2020, although we didn’t know it at the time, was the best loss in the 91 season history of the Detroit Lions.
 
Bears should go sicko this game, they can risk a Caleb ACL for what? They have a lame duck HC, who knows if the GM is next, they need to tank the rest of the season for better draft position, tank this game and tank tank tank.
 
Lions will control the tempo
Short turnarounds are tougher on the visiting team
I think The Bears will be in the game
But don't see The Lions losing at home on Turkey day to a division rival
Especially one that tends to do something stupid now and then
I'm thinking...

Turkey Day Lions- 37
Big Turkey bears- 26
Visiting teams are 11-3 on Thanksgiving the last 5 years. Short turnarounds are not so hard on them.
And 64-80 on Thursdays in the last ten years
64-80 for the road team does not seem like some compelling stat that would prove your point on "turnarounds being tougher" on the visitor. The home team already has an inherent advantage.


Can you dig up the ATS stats? Would be interesting to see those, and the breakdown between Thanksgiving and "normal" Thursday games. I can see there being something to the Thanksgiving thing being more of a distraction for players who will be home with all their family stuff going on.
 
Detroit was -8 over GB last year, having beaten them 4 straight.

They lost 22-29 (it wasn't as close as the final score.)

Thanksgiving game history ATS (does not include last year):

Since 2010, favorites have gone 21-17 against the spread (ATS) (55.3%) and 31-7 straight up (SU) (81.6%) in Thanksgiving games.

Going back five years before that, they dominate at an even higher rate, going 34-18 ATS (65.4%) and 44-8 SU (84.6%).

And finally, if we go back even further to the 2000 season, favorites have gone a whopping 39-23 ATS (62.9%) and 51-11 SU (82.3%).

Last year, Lions, Cowboys and 49ers were all favorites.


2 out of 3 covered.

IDK the answer to your question about home v road ATS.

EDIT

Couple more snippets I found:
  • It's one or the other. The Lions and Cowboys haven't gone 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001 and they haven't both gone 2-0 SU/ATS on Thanksgiving since 1994.
Favorites have historically dominated on Thanksgiving.
  • Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 48-9 straight up (SU) and 38-19 against the spread (ATS).
  • Favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
  • In Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 29-5 SU and 25-9 ATS.
 
Hard to see Detroit losing this game, but Caleb W seemed to snap on Sunday, in a good way. I think he will have a good game tomorrow against a Detroit D that has faced a few cupcakes lately. That being said, Detroit is a different animal right now. They’ve won games by Goff throwing a perfect game, by throwing a ton, and by barely throwing at all. Because they are hard to run on, it makes keeping their offense off the field easier said than done. As a Vikings fan, crazy to think we could theoretically go 15-2 (we won’t) and still end up having to go on the road in the playoffs.

Det 34
Chi 24
 
Bears have beaten Detroit on Thanksgiving three times during the current 7-year losing streak in their holiday game.

Bears have lost five straight - three on the last play of the game.
 
Lions are having a memorable season and I don’t see it slowing down vs the Bears. These early Thanksgiving games tend to have combined scores over 40. Lions have lost 7 in a row on Thanksgiving. Bears have won last 3 Thanksgiving matchups. Add in some key Lion injuries and the division play and we are looking at a close game for a while. Ultimately the Lions will pull away and the Bears will fall into the trap of trading FGs w Lion TDs. Special year for Detroit. So,

Lions 33
Bears 23
 

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