Before you sit Larry Fitzgerald in the title game (1 Viewer)

[BeTheMatch]

Consider this:

Last year, Fitzgerald was going through a brutal stretch in Weeks 11-15, posting games of 1-11-0, 3-31-0, 1-23-0, 1-2-0 and 4-22-0. And in many people's title game in Week 16, he drew the top-ranked pass defense in the Chicago Bears.

So at least one idiot in this world outsmarted himself and put Larry on the bench in favor of one Rod Streater, who had been emerging late in the season with games of 3-96-1, 4-100-0 and 5-62-0.

Man, oh, man was I smart. This was my ticket to the league title and all that money.

But then against that vaunted Bears pass defense, a funny thing happened. Larry caught 8 passes for 111 yards, good for 19 points.

Streater, meanwhile, caught 2 passes for 16 yards, good for 3.6 points, against Carolina.

I lost my league championship by 3 points.

Fast-forward to the 2013 championship weekend, and I find myself in two title games and a third-place game, all with money on the line and all with Larry on my team.

He's coming off a concussion. His quarterback is banged up. He's playing against the top defense in the NFL. And he's playing in probably the toughest road venue in the league.

Sounds awfully familiar. And I'll tell you what, Andre Caldwell seems like an intriguing fill-in this week. Doug Baldwin too. Maybe even Da'Rick Rogers.

Interesting.

 

[Interseptopus]

Cool story

 

[resko99]

Yikes, I'm starting Streater over him in the finals THIS year. I'M DOOMED.

 

[Shutout]

I have owned Fitz in dynasty since drafting him coming out of college in a couple of leagues. I have always seemed to have a good vibe for him and, outside of injuries, I benched him for the first time last year after a couple of games and never played him again and, for my team, given my options, it was the right thing to do. Sometimes you just know when he's got it and when he doesn't (and that is always due to his surroundings, etc, never him..He is always more than capable but you can only do so much sometimes).

Anyway, I benched him yesterday. I don't think he does much more than 4/36 kind of day.

 

[Warrior]

I have owned Fitz in dynasty since drafting him coming out of college in a couple of leagues. I have always seemed to have a good vibe for him and, outside of injuries, I benched him for the first time last year after a couple of games and never played him again and, for my team, given my options, it was the right thing to do. Sometimes you just know when he's got it and when he doesn't (and that is always due to his surroundings, etc, never him..He is always more than capable but you can only do so much sometimes).

Anyway, I benched him yesterday. I don't think he does much more than 4/36 kind of day.

Probably has more to do with Seattle's defense than your "feel" for him

 

[FF Ninja]

 

[Soulfly3]

edge of your seat stuff.

 

[MarcO]

Fitzgerald used to have some pretty good success against the Seahawks - back before the current group of DBs were in place. in his last 3 games vs. SEA he's a combined 7 catches for 82 yards. Coupled with the recent concussion, not someone I would bet my championship on.

I've currently got Andre Brown or R Randle penciled in as a FLEX over him and don't see that changing between now and Sunday morning (unless there was a SEA DB party last night and a mandatory drug test this morning...)

 

[RushHour]

They key is not to own Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy. As the OP has discovered, it can be a real headache sometimes.

Hakeem Nicks screwed me in a 2011 championship game and I've never owned him in any league since; in fact, I've had nothing but contempt for him. It's worked out well as he's fairly useless now. The lesson is get that heartache out of your life.

 

[ImTheScientist]

He is playing the hawks....nobody cares about your team.

 

[Interseptopus]

They key is not to own Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy. As the OP has discovered, it can be a real headache sometimes.

Hakeem Nicks screwed me in a 2011 championship game and I've never owned him in any league since; in fact, I've had nothing but contempt for him. It's worked out well as he's fairly useless now. The lesson is get that heartache out of your life.

This is exactly why I completely avoided Chris Johnson this year. He is such a headache. He will post 5 points and then go off for like 30.

By avoiding the headache players, I have simplified my fantasy football life and it has been stress free, for the most part. I love it

 

[MarcO]

They key is not to own Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy. As the OP has discovered, it can be a real headache sometimes.

Hakeem Nicks screwed me in a 2011 championship game and I've never owned him in any league since; in fact, I've had nothing but contempt for him. It's worked out well as he's fairly useless now. The lesson is get that heartache out of your life.

This is exactly why I completely avoided Chris Johnson this year. He is such a headache. He will post 5 points and then go off for like 30.

By avoiding the headache players, I have simplified my fantasy football life and it has been stress free, for the most part. I love it

all kinds of wrong here. he's had 3 out of 14 weeks where he has been in single digits this year. many of us drafted him knowing we could get value because of the commonly held perception like yours -and that once he got past SF (which BTW turns out he had a good game) and SEA that his schedule would be cake . He's actually been one of the most consistent RBs in fantasy this year and will finish in the top 10 for RBs this year.

 

[Interseptopus]

They key is not to own Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy. As the OP has discovered, it can be a real headache sometimes.

Hakeem Nicks screwed me in a 2011 championship game and I've never owned him in any league since; in fact, I've had nothing but contempt for him. It's worked out well as he's fairly useless now. The lesson is get that heartache out of your life.

This is exactly why I completely avoided Chris Johnson this year. He is such a headache. He will post 5 points and then go off for like 30.By avoiding the headache players, I have simplified my fantasy football life and it has been stress free, for the most part. I love it

all kinds of wrong here. he's had 3 out of 14 weeks where he has been in single digits this year. many of us drafted him knowing we could get value because of the commonly held perception like yours -and that once he got past SF (which BTW turns out he had a good game) and SEA that his schedule would be cake . He's actually been one of the most consistent RBs in fantasy this year and will finish in the top 10 for RBs this year.

Marco, please see my post below from the CJ?k in 2013 thread.It was done before the week 14 games and shows, in fact, he has been one of the least consistent

He averaging 14.77 points per game in my league. Hardly "elite"

He's ranked 18th in average in my league, although I will admit we have some goofy return yard scoring.

In total points he's 15th.

Again, I admit we have some weird scoring with return yards, but even if you normalize that stat, he's still out of the top 10 (12th in total points)

I really don't understand how he is top 10. That just seems impossible, but maybe those leagues offer no points for return yards and no PPR... I guess it could be possible then. I'm in a PPR league. He's falling short this year on receptions. That's where his true value lies. I would imagine next year he could be a PPR monster

14.77 average is rough.

I will admit, I had high hopes for his playoff schedule and I wish his owner wasn't a complete knob and was active in my league because I had a decent trade push for him.

To say he deserves to be in the same sentence as Charles, AP, Shady is a reach. Although how many people saw Forte being top 3, or Moreno top 5, I would have been just as skeptical.

FBG standard scoring he is 8th.FBG standard scoring with PPR he is 9th. (admittedly the difference between 8 and 13 is minuscule)

That said, I don't see how anybody can call him a disappointment. I don;t think anybody had him ranked in the top 10 preseason, and he is there now. I'd say he was a value pick.

I would concede that he was a value pick, but with an asterisk (will explain below). My original posting here was to point out how ridiculous some people had him ranked.He was picked as a rb2 in most leagues, and yes at season end total points they will have had a bargain.

However.... My big issue with CJ is that he is the Chad Johnson of RBs. Chad would get 3-5 catches for 30-40 yards 10/16 games, but those other 6 games he would go off for 150+ yards and 1-2 scores. So by seasons end sure he had scored enough to be top 15-20, but really he hurt you more than he helped you.

For comparison, in my standard league Alfred Morris is right behind him. Looking at his stats, for the most part you know what you're getting: about 90 rushing yards a game and maybe a score here and there. Fairly consistent.

Maybe it's my personal preference, but I'd rather have a rb who I can count on getting at least 90 yards and maybe a score, with the possibility of getting 100+ Over CJ who could get 30 points with a monster 200+ 2 score game but could also get 25 yards and no score.

So yes, total numbers perhaps he was a steal, but he's not an overly confident play every week which doesn't make him a rb2 in my mind. If you have to ask yourself if you should start your rb2 every week, that's an intangible that drops them down to a rb3/flex play

Yea this just isn't trueHis games of under 9 points in standard scoring were:

@Pittsburgh

vs NYJ

@ Seattle

vs Jax

@ Oakland

3 of those were tough matchups and CJ probably wasn't ranked in the top 15 (or 30 depending on the ranker :/)

Jax was unpredictably bad but that doesn't exactly look terrible now given that Jax has been solid for over a month now

Oakland has been 'better than you think' all year defensively

How many rb2s have 7 of 12 results of 9+ points?

So 7/12 = 58% of games at 9+ points

Going off my standard league:

RB 11: Lacy 8/11 (72%)

RB 12: Murray: 8/10 (80%)

RB 13: F. Jackson 9/12 (75%)

RB 14: Matthews: 8/12 (67%)

RB 15: Benard: 5/12 (42%)

RB 16: Stacy: 5/8 (63%)

RB 17: MJD 8/12 (67%)

RB 18: Jennings: 6/12 (50%) However he's only gotten "starter carries" in 7 games, and gone over the 9 point mark in 6/7 of those games

RB 19: J. Bell: 5/12 (42%)

RB 20: L. Bell 7/9 (78%)

So to answer your original question, 7/10 RB2s (8 if you only look at Jenning's stats when McFadden was hurt) get at least 9 points per game more than 58% of their games thus far

If you want to look at top 10, since CJ is technically a RB1 this season:

RB 1: AP 9/12 (75%)

RB 2: Charles 11/12 (92%

RB 3: Forte 11/12 (92%)

RB 4: McCoy 10/12 (83%)

RB 5: Moreno 9/12 (75%)

RB 6: Lynch 8/12 (67%)

RB 7: Bush 8/12 (67%)

RB 8: C. Johnson 7/12 (58%)

RB 9: A. Morris 9/12 (75%)

RB 10: Gore 8/12 (67%)

So if anything, you've made my point very well for me. In the top 20 RBs, only 3 RBs score lesser % wise in games above 9 points in active games this season.

One of them, Benard, shares time and is, arguably, under-utilized

Another, Jennings, has been a starter for only 7 games, and has gone over 9 points in 86% (6) of those games, but he's played in all 12, putting him only at 50%

And the last, J. Bell, shares time with another RB in the top 10

Ranking RBs based off of your argument, CJ would be ranked RB 17

I concede that CJ has the abilty to outscore most of those RB2s and many RB1s. That's what's attractive for him, and that's my point. End of the season he will have RB1 numbers, but he is so inconsistent.

He is like Chad Johnson. If you can live with/afford the many down games for exchange of 2-3 amazing games, then great, go for it.

Personally, I've been hosed by players like that too often in my fantasy career, I avoid them, cross them off my draft list from the get go. Their end of season stats make them look attractive. And yes, that's because they are good football players. But fantasy wise, they are some of the worst to own.

This was through 12 games, before week 14. I don't really have the time or energy right now to do it including the last 2 weeks, but it won't change it a whole lot.He has not been one of the most consistent and he will finish top 10. Not my kind of rb

 

[Sinrman]

Still love Fitz, but recent concussion + SEA defense that will blanket him = little production this week.

 

[MarcO]

They key is not to own Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy. As the OP has discovered, it can be a real headache sometimes.

Hakeem Nicks screwed me in a 2011 championship game and I've never owned him in any league since; in fact, I've had nothing but contempt for him. It's worked out well as he's fairly useless now. The lesson is get that heartache out of your life.

This is exactly why I completely avoided Chris Johnson this year. He is such a headache. He will post 5 points and then go off for like 30.By avoiding the headache players, I have simplified my fantasy football life and it has been stress free, for the most part. I love it

all kinds of wrong here. he's had 3 out of 14 weeks where he has been in single digits this year. many of us drafted him knowing we could get value because of the commonly held perception like yours -and that once he got past SF (which BTW turns out he had a good game) and SEA that his schedule would be cake . He's actually been one of the most consistent RBs in fantasy this year and will finish in the top 10 for RBs this year.

Marco, please see my post below from the CJ?k in 2013 thread.It was done before the week 14 games and shows, in fact, he has been one of the least consistent

He averaging 14.77 points per game in my league. Hardly "elite"

He's ranked 18th in average in my league, although I will admit we have some goofy return yard scoring.

In total points he's 15th.

Again, I admit we have some weird scoring with return yards, but even if you normalize that stat, he's still out of the top 10 (12th in total points)

I really don't understand how he is top 10. That just seems impossible, but maybe those leagues offer no points for return yards and no PPR... I guess it could be possible then. I'm in a PPR league. He's falling short this year on receptions. That's where his true value lies. I would imagine next year he could be a PPR monster

14.77 average is rough.

I will admit, I had high hopes for his playoff schedule and I wish his owner wasn't a complete knob and was active in my league because I had a decent trade push for him.

To say he deserves to be in the same sentence as Charles, AP, Shady is a reach. Although how many people saw Forte being top 3, or Moreno top 5, I would have been just as skeptical.

FBG standard scoring he is 8th.FBG standard scoring with PPR he is 9th. (admittedly the difference between 8 and 13 is minuscule)

That said, I don't see how anybody can call him a disappointment. I don;t think anybody had him ranked in the top 10 preseason, and he is there now. I'd say he was a value pick.

I would concede that he was a value pick, but with an asterisk (will explain below). My original posting here was to point out how ridiculous some people had him ranked.He was picked as a rb2 in most leagues, and yes at season end total points they will have had a bargain.

However.... My big issue with CJ is that he is the Chad Johnson of RBs. Chad would get 3-5 catches for 30-40 yards 10/16 games, but those other 6 games he would go off for 150+ yards and 1-2 scores. So by seasons end sure he had scored enough to be top 15-20, but really he hurt you more than he helped you.

For comparison, in my standard league Alfred Morris is right behind him. Looking at his stats, for the most part you know what you're getting: about 90 rushing yards a game and maybe a score here and there. Fairly consistent.

Maybe it's my personal preference, but I'd rather have a rb who I can count on getting at least 90 yards and maybe a score, with the possibility of getting 100+ Over CJ who could get 30 points with a monster 200+ 2 score game but could also get 25 yards and no score.

So yes, total numbers perhaps he was a steal, but he's not an overly confident play every week which doesn't make him a rb2 in my mind. If you have to ask yourself if you should start your rb2 every week, that's an intangible that drops them down to a rb3/flex play

Yea this just isn't trueHis games of under 9 points in standard scoring were:

@Pittsburgh

vs NYJ

@ Seattle

vs Jax

@ Oakland

3 of those were tough matchups and CJ probably wasn't ranked in the top 15 (or 30 depending on the ranker :/)

Jax was unpredictably bad but that doesn't exactly look terrible now given that Jax has been solid for over a month now

Oakland has been 'better than you think' all year defensively

How many rb2s have 7 of 12 results of 9+ points?

So 7/12 = 58% of games at 9+ points

Going off my standard league:

RB 11: Lacy 8/11 (72%)

RB 12: Murray: 8/10 (80%)

RB 13: F. Jackson 9/12 (75%)

RB 14: Matthews: 8/12 (67%)

RB 15: Benard: 5/12 (42%)

RB 16: Stacy: 5/8 (63%)

RB 17: MJD 8/12 (67%)

RB 18: Jennings: 6/12 (50%) However he's only gotten "starter carries" in 7 games, and gone over the 9 point mark in 6/7 of those games

RB 19: J. Bell: 5/12 (42%)

RB 20: L. Bell 7/9 (78%)

So to answer your original question, 7/10 RB2s (8 if you only look at Jenning's stats when McFadden was hurt) get at least 9 points per game more than 58% of their games thus far

If you want to look at top 10, since CJ is technically a RB1 this season:

RB 1: AP 9/12 (75%)

RB 2: Charles 11/12 (92%

RB 3: Forte 11/12 (92%)

RB 4: McCoy 10/12 (83%)

RB 5: Moreno 9/12 (75%)

RB 6: Lynch 8/12 (67%)

RB 7: Bush 8/12 (67%)

RB 8: C. Johnson 7/12 (58%)

RB 9: A. Morris 9/12 (75%)

RB 10: Gore 8/12 (67%)

So if anything, you've made my point very well for me. In the top 20 RBs, only 3 RBs score lesser % wise in games above 9 points in active games this season.

One of them, Benard, shares time and is, arguably, under-utilized

Another, Jennings, has been a starter for only 7 games, and has gone over 9 points in 86% (6) of those games, but he's played in all 12, putting him only at 50%

And the last, J. Bell, shares time with another RB in the top 10

Ranking RBs based off of your argument, CJ would be ranked RB 17

I concede that CJ has the abilty to outscore most of those RB2s and many RB1s. That's what's attractive for him, and that's my point. End of the season he will have RB1 numbers, but he is so inconsistent.

He is like Chad Johnson. If you can live with/afford the many down games for exchange of 2-3 amazing games, then great, go for it.

Personally, I've been hosed by players like that too often in my fantasy career, I avoid them, cross them off my draft list from the get go. Their end of season stats make them look attractive. And yes, that's because they are good football players. But fantasy wise, they are some of the worst to own.

This was through 12 games, before week 14. I don't really have the time or energy right now to do it including the last 2 weeks, but it won't change it a whole lot.He has not been one of the most consistent and he will finish top 10. Not my kind of rb

I don't want to hijack this thread but he IS in fact in the top 10 in just about every scoring system. Your "math" is very rudimentary at best as it really does nothing to prove the consistency point - you know the one where you claimed he was at 30 and 25 for a couple of weeks and then down to 5 again, etc...

 

[Eviloutsider]

So, all of this considered, where do you rank Fitz. this week? Would you pick up a FA WR over him to play?

 

[Clutchfanatic]

I've got Jordy in over Fitz. GB weather scares me. May have to play Fitz.

 

[Dragon1952]

Against the bottom 2/3 of the league's pass defenses that Arizona has faced this year (a total of 8 games), Fitz has averaged 19.1 fpg in PPR. If you throw out the one anomaly in that group (5.3 pts vs Det), he's averaged 21 fpg. Against the top 1/3 pass defenses (6 games) he's averaged 10.2 fpg and if you throw out the one anomaly from that group (23.1 pts vs SF) he's averaged just 7.7 fpg.

In the last 3 vs Seattle he's a combined 7 catches on 27 targets for 82 yds and 0 TD's.

There you go......solid proof not to start him.

 

[Eviloutsider]

In the past has Sherman shadowed him?

 

[djmich]

Fitzgerald or Marvin Jones?

 

[Andrew74]

I'm starting Caldwell over him.

 

[MarcO]

In the past has Sherman shadowed him?

no.

 

[mad sweeney]

In the past has Sherman shadowed him?

Nope. The only time he's ever shadowed someone was week 2 vs Boldin when Browner was out. Haven't read anything that suggests he would do it this time. They probably figure the backups are playing well enough that they don't need to, a fact they weren't sure of back in week 2.